I can't be serious, right? Thinking that a team with the following track record through three games could win four straight:

• A team that has given up as many shorthanded goals (3) as they've scored on the power play in those three games?
• A team that has allowed the opponent to score on 5-out-of-9 power plays?
• A team whose starting goaltender has a .798 sv% through the first three games?
• A team whose 50-goal scorer hasn't hit the back of the net once?
• A team that has blown early leads of 3-0, 2-0 and 1-0 consecutively?

Yes. I'm serious. And the reason is a mathematical law known as "regression to the mean."

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Like nearly everyone else in the Penguins fanbase, I wanted to see Jaromir Jagr back in a Pittsburgh sweater for what should be the last year of his career.  I remember the ridiculous goals and post-scoring salutes fondly, and despite his unceremonious departure in 2001 (netting all of 33 points from Kris Beech and Michael Sivek), I would've welcomed him back with open arms and a jar full of peanut butter.

Even after 11 years on the shelf, it would probably taste pretty good.

But this is where it ends.  And honestly, whatever food product carries Steve Sullivan's name (maybe Gary Roberts makes a nutrition shake for him), it'll taste better than Jagr's Sour Grapes at less than half the cost.  Here's why:

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With Ray Shero admitting that Eric Godard will not be re-signed and Mike Rupp seemingly on his way out of Pittsburgh, the Pens seem to lack that big, heavyweight winger who can go toe-to-toe with the Trevor Gillies' of the NHL.  Sure, re-signed Aaron Asham (all 5'10" and 196lbs. of him) can handle his own against the likes of Zenon Konopka, but against the likes of a Colton Orr, he's not an even tilt.

This leaves one man in the heavyweight division for the Pens:  Deryk Engelland.  And I'm fine with this under a certain scenario as described below:

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Since Hooks and Frank were busy looking at one Free Agent to be at a time, I figured I'd put together a proposed Free Agency plan for the off-season that combines it all.  TonyAndrock did a good first look at both NHL and AHL options about a month ago--it's worth another look before going further.  So is Hooks' breakdown posted earlier this morning, assessing the possibility of a Jagr signing and how the Pens should handle the need at RW.

Let's start out by understanding that the NHL is only one year away from a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could radically change the current Salary Cap system.  The way things are right now, the average salary over the course of a contract counts toward the yearly cap number. I doubt this will change, given the fact that a number of teams have severely front-loaded some large contracts based on this rule.

So what should the Pens do within the confines of the $64,300,000 salary cap for next season?  Well, Mr. Shero, I have your answer.

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