SB Nation User Blog: doctorK

Having fun with Pythagoras, or, who got lucky during 2009

doctorK — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:59:09 -0000

Well, another season has come and gone, without the good guys winning again. Being a numbers-guy, I'd like to take a look at how the teams in MLB performed against their Pythagorean records (in case you don't know what I'm talking about, and haven't backed out of this post, look here). I'm especially interested in who under- and over-performed against their Pythag records, and want to take a stab at figuring out why.

All of the team data in the graphs and tables below came from baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com.

First of all, let's take a look at how the teams in MLB performed this past season (the AL West teams are in bold).

Team	Rs	Ra	W%	PW%	Pythag diff
TOR	798	771	0.463	0.516	-8.55
CLE	773	865	0.401	0.449	-7.70
WSN	710	874	0.364	0.406	-6.78
OAK	759	761	0.463	0.499	-5.80
ATL	735	641	0.531	0.562	-5.09
ARI	720	782	0.432	0.462	-4.89
PIT	636	768	0.385	0.415	-4.75
BAL	741	876	0.395	0.424	-4.69
LAD	780	611	0.586	0.610	-3.80
NYM	671	757	0.432	0.445	-2.10
TBR	803	754	0.519	0.529	-1.66
CHC	707	672	0.516	0.523	-1.24
CHW	724	732	0.488	0.495	-1.19
KCR	686	842	0.401	0.407	-0.99
STL	730	640	0.562	0.560	0.30
MIN	817	765	0.534	0.530	0.60
PHI	820	709	0.574	0.566	1.28
BOS	872	736	0.586	0.577	1.53
SFG	657	611	0.543	0.533	1.63
TEX	784	740	0.537	0.526	1.72
MIL	785	818	0.494	0.481	2.05
CIN	673	723	0.481	0.467	2.30
COL	804	715	0.568	0.553	2.34
DET	743	745	0.528	0.499	4.70
LAA	883	761	0.599	0.568	5.05
FLA	772	766	0.537	0.504	5.42
HOU	643	770	0.457	0.418	6.24
SDP	638	769	0.463	0.415	7.71
NYY	915	753	0.636	0.588	7.71
SEA	640	692	0.525	0.464	9.78
average			0.500	0.500	0.038
sigma			0.070	0.060	4.868

What I've labeled as 'Pythag diff' is how many more (or fewer) games the team won as compared to their Pythag record, most easily calculated by this: Pythag diff = Games played X (W% - PW%). Games played is, or course, 162, unless you are the Cubs or the Pirates (161) or the Tigers or the Twins (163). A team with a positive difference outperformed it's Pythag record, etc. The average Pythag diff is roughly 0 (as it should be) with a standard deviation of 4.87. I have not rounded off any of these numbers in the analysis - of course, it is impossible to record a fraction of a win.

Two teams that really stand out here are the Blue Jays, who outscored their opponents by 27 runs, but won only 75 games, and the Mariners, who were outscored by 52 runs (almost 1/3 of a run per game), yet managed to win 85 games. Also, the A's should've won 81 games, but only posted 75 real wins.

Tables of numbers are fine, but it is instructive to look at the distributions. First, here are how actual winning percentages looked.

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The distribution is skewed towards the winning side - there were 16 winning teams and 14 losing teams this past season (meaning, there were a few really bad teams, like the Nats, Orioles, Indians, and Pirates).

Here's how the Pythagorean winning percentages looked.

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Now, this isn't even remotely normally distributed. At least the count is correct - there are 15 winners and 15 losers. But wow, that is a nasty-looking histogram.

Lastly, here is how the Pythag diff is distributed.

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This one would look better if not for that large number of teams that were between 6 and 4 wins below their Pythag records. Note here that we have 14 under-performers, and 16 over-achievers.

One of my pet beliefs (meaning not necessarily quantifiable) is that good teams have a tendency to make their own luck (conversely, bad teams like the A's play just good enough to lose). Of our 16 winning teams, 12 exceeded their Pythag records. So, does winning percentage correlate at all with Pythag diff?

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There is something there, although clearly there are some other factors involved (an r-squared of 0.29 means that 29% of the variation in the Pythag diff data can be explained by the winning percentage).

It may be instructive to look at the distribution of game results (net scores per game, so a ho-hum 14-13 victory is the same as a 3-2 walk-off winner) for individual teams. I went ahead and did this for the AL West, where we have one losing team (guess who) which under-performed by 5.8 wins, and three winning teams that over-performed by 1.72 wins (Texas), 5.05 wins (LA of Anaheim), and 9.78 wins (Seattle). These next four graphs are all plotted on the same scale for easy comparison.

A's

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Rangers

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Angels

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Mariners

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One standout feature of these four plots is the record in one-run games. The A's were bad in these games with a 15-23 record. Texas was 19-18 in one run games, the Angels were 27-18, and the Mariners were 35-20. Seeing this, perhaps we should look at how one-run game record impacts Pythag diff.

Side note: Seattle played 55 one-run games - that's one third of the regular season. If you''ve ever wondered why the LL guys have a tendency to go off the deep end in their game threads, stop wondering.

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OK, now we're cooking with gas. About half of the variation in Pythag diff can be explained by one-run winning percentage. Of course, teams with good one-run records also tend to have good overall records.

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Some other factors that could possibly influence under/over performing are:

Head-to-head matchups between two teams. For example (and I hate bringing this up), the Mariners were 14-5 against the A's this season. In 2006 when the A's last won the West, they outperformed Pythag by 8 wins, and went 17-2 against Seattle (that still amazes me). Last season, when the A's were only one game below Pythag, they went 10-9 against Seattle, and were 25-24 in one-run games. Toronto was also 6-12 against the Yankees despite only being out-scored by 5 runs in those 18 games).
Defense. Seattle was the best team in the majors at defensive run prevention (as measured by ERA-FIP, as listed here), while Cleveland was second worst (only the Royals were worse, and they also under-performed against their Pythag record). I did try a correlation here, but the r-squared value was only 0.1 or so. The A's ERA-FIP was +0.19, which should not surprise anyone considering we had Adam Kennedy most of the season "playing" 3B, and the occasional Cust adventure in the OF.

In conclusion, if a team wants to consistently out-perform Pythagoras, they should:

Be good at winning baseball games,
Be good at winning one-run games,
Totally own some team that you play a lot,
Be very good at converting balls in play into outs, and
Get lucky.

Your thoughts?

BART Strike Averted

doctorK — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 04:29:57 -0000

BART Strike Averted

Tentative agreement by the BART and the ATU.

doctorK Turns Back the Clock, A's Style

doctorK — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 00:11:34 -0000

If you want to skip the commentary and just want pics, click here.

Mrs doctorK and I loaded up the flivver and motored on up the expressway to beautiful Shibe Park to enjoy a nice afternoon of baseball. The Athletics had some nice gentlemen playing some of the latest ragtime tunes just outside the front gate.

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Once inside, the home team wanted to make sure we knew where we were.

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Some nice people decided to show off the new model that ol' Henry Ford has just introduced.

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Here is another new Ford model, with a strange-looking elephant on the back. I'm not sure what the girl in the hat was doing. Also, that grass looks like it has been around since 1829.

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Here, some of the home-team ballists are getting ready to play some baseball.

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A replica of the jersey of the Athletics' latest Hall of Famer hangs in a place of honor.

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(I'm not sure what the '.com' sign means, but I guess it has something to do with baseball.)

This ballist for the Chicago White Stockings is named Scott "Bugsy" Podsednik. When it comes to defense, he is bad at baseball.

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Here, Athletics manager Robert "Finger-sniffer" Geren argues with the second base umpire after the atrocious call he made that somehow, Athletics shortstop Robert "Low and Away" Crosby pushed the Pale Hose baserunner off of second base with his glove. Mr Geren was invited to enjoy the rest of the game from the clubhouse.

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When I was a young lad growing up in the Territory of Hawaii, I used to feel bad for tourists who would dress in identical aloha-wear. I feel the same way for baseball fans who do the same thing.

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With two outs in the bottom of the 9th frame, Athletics second baseman Mark "OMG UNICORNS!!!!!!" Ellis ended the game with a line drive home run right over the Henderson jersey. Here, Mr Podsednik demonstrates the modern term for such a feat by Mr Ellis, the "walk-off".

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Final score, Philadelphia 3, Chicago 2.

DLD 7/21/09 - Still in awe of last night

doctorK — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:03:16 -0000

I want a new freaking DLD, so here we go.

Star Tribune's recap of last night's game. Looking at the picture, it looks like Cuddyer's right leg/foot was over (above) the plate as Wuertz tagged him - looks OUT to me.

Watching last night's game made me think of this game from last year (which I was fortunate to attend). Like last night, Holliday had two HRs in that game, including a slam. The park factor between Coors and the Coliseum looks like about -8 runs.

Today is the 40th anniversary of the first successful manned launch from the surface of the moon. That moonwalk stuff is so yesterday.

As Englishmajor announced during last night's game thread (one of them, I don't remember which), California has a budget agreement. I guess this means no more IOU's.

Finally, some overdue recognition is given to some true American heroes.

Poll

MLB should institute NFL-type reviews on plays at the plate.

No

10 votes

Definitely no

19 votes

Fark no

26 votes

Only when the moron forgets to slide

36 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

doctorK's Take on Citizens Bank Park

doctorK — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 03:24:39 -0000

I really hate flying. Air travel (actually, the TSA) just sucks the life out of me. And renting a car leaves a lot to be desired as well. Therefore, when Mrs doctorK said she wanted to take a trip to Philadelphia after our time in Pittsburgh was up, I did some checking and found that Amtrak has a daily train from Pittsburgh to Philly, which on Sunday leaves at 1:20 pm (yay - we get to sleep in), so I was able to avoid another flight and renting a car.

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As usual, here is a link to a slideshow of all 150+ pictures sans doctorK commentary.

Along the way, we saw many interesting sites, like the famous Horseshoe Curve near Altoona and the cooling towers of Three Mile Island. Getting into Philadelphia's 30th Street Station, I found that the time I wasted at work checking out the street level view in Google Maps was well spent, as I was able to find the subway station, and catch the correct train to our hotel, the Marriot just one block east of City Hall.

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Before the game, we did the usual tourist stuff (Liberty Bell, Independence Hall (from the outside), Betsy Ross House). At the Betsy Ross house, they had a special display on the history of baseball in Philadelphia. I got off a couple of pictures before the guide told me that the little sign that says 'No Photography' means 'No Photography'. The objects of my attention were some A's stuff.

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To get to the ball park, we walked a block to City Hall and caught the Broad Street Line subway, which terminates in Philadelphia sports heaven. There, within a few blocks of each other, are Citizens Bank Park, the Spectrum, the Wachovia Center (new home of the 76ers and Flyers), and Lincoln Financial field, home of the football team that got its ass kicked in Superbowl XV. There are also memorials dedicated to Veteran's Memorial Stadium, which used to occupy the parking lots for all of the above.

Coming into the ballpark, we had to pass by this guy.

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Here is our first view inside the park.

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Ha ha - there are already more fans in the stands than the last A's game I went to.

It was really great to be in a ballpark where the home team is winning. The amount of fans wearing jerseys for Victorino, Howard, Utley, Hamels, etc was astounding. I also saw this banner.

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Alas, I missed Cupcakes' last start by one day (a very effective 7 1/3 innings in a 2-0 win over the Mutts).

Our seats were in the second deck in the RF corner. The view of the field was excellent, except for anything hit right down the RF line.

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There is a mock-up of the Liberty Bell behind CF, which is used for celebrating HRs, and when the Phillies win (more on this later).

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The LF wall has a tribute to Harry Kalas.

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Here's the Philly skyline

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Here, the Philly Phanatic ~~tries to kill people in the upper deck~~ lauches hot dogs into the crowd (that was one impressive hot dog laucher).

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Lots of memorial statues in this park, and an area just off Ashburn Alley (the concourse behind the outfield) which has a history of Phillies baseball.

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If the new A's ballpark (assuming we get one) doesn't have something similar to what I've seen in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, I will ~~burn the place down~~ be very disappointed. Maybe the A's can hire 67MARQUEZ to make sure the job is done right.

Well, you say, what about the game? The game turned out to be the baseball equivalent of clubbing baby seals. Citizens Bank Park lived up to its reputation as a launching pad, as there were five HRs in the game, three by the home team in the 10-run first inning alone. 10 runs! - that's like a week's worth of scoring from the A's. I love the fangraphs win probability graph of this game.

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Yeah, not a lot of high-leverage at-bats in this one. Here are a few game pics.

Hi, I'm Dusty Baker. I've ruined more pitchers than I've chewed toothpicks. Right now, I'm contemplating murdering Johnny Cueto.

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Here the Reds outfielders are chasing Jimmy Rollins' 1st inning double - his 2nd plate appearance of the inning (which also chased Mr Cueto).

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During the pitching change, the Phillies did their version of Dot Racing - SEPTA Bus Racing!

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(By the way, SEPTA is a perfect name for the transit system, especially the subway, which smells rather, well, septic.)

All of the HRs hit in this game ended up in this general area (it's like that Jeep sign is a ball-magnet).

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Former A's players seen in this game were Ramon Hernandez for the Reds, and Matt Stairs for the Phillies, who was walked in the 8th inning by Reds backup SS Paul Janish (Janish gave up 6 runs in the inning, the last four coming on Jayson Werth's slam). Here is Stairs scoring on an RBI single by Shane Victorino.

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The Phillies also have former Gnats Pedro Feliz, ~~Thighler~~ Tyler Walker, and Scott Eyre. The last two got mop-up duty after seven strong innings from Cole Hamels.

After a tense 9th inning in which the Reds had runners at 2nd and 3rd with no outs (and stranded them - sound familiar?), the game ended with a called strickout of Jonny Gomes.

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O RLY?

Lots of ringing for ol' Liberty tonight. I think the crack got longer.

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You can't beat fun at the old (or in this case, still pretty new) ballpark.

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Some general observations:

If you're going to build a new ballpark, either put it near locations of great natural beauty (like Pittsburgh) or at least in an area with lots of space and good transit options available.
The Phillies' fans were really into the game from the start. The guy a couple of seats down from me was yelling 'farking umpire' after the Rollins walk in the first inning (of course, that's probably because he was already glassy-eyed drunk - IN THE FIRST INNING).
Someone needs to instruct the ball girl working the LF line to not handle a ball that the umpire has just called fair (Victorino's 3rd inning leadoff double). The fans in that area gave her a sarcastic cheer later when she fielded a FOUL ball.
Speaking of non-sober fans, I wish I had shot some video of the cute bombed chick who was acting like a total moran on the subway ride back from the game. The whole car was trying not to LOL too obviously.
Downtown Philadelphia sure has a lot of beautiful old buildings and historical places, but Lord Almighty the place smells bad. Think of the Tenderloin district in San Francisco with older plumbing.

doctorK invades PNC Park

doctorK — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:16:06 -0000

This year, Mrs doctorK has brought me and little miss specialK to the annual Mensa geek-fest, which this year is in Pittsburgh. The Pirates were in town finishing up a home stand with the Cubs, and since I've never been to this fine city, I thought it would be fun to take the family to a game at PNC Park.

As always, you can click here to get all the photos without the doctorK snark.

Our trip started auspiciously from gate 85 at SFO. Why is gate 85 so special? Because this guy is enshrined there as part of the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame.

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Unfortunately, when I arrived in Pittsburgh, I was greeted with a statue of some guy wearing #32 in a black and yellow uniform making a shoe-string catch in some football game years ago (and NO, I did not take a picture - I was too busy restraining myself).

At present, Pittsburgh is on top of the sporting world, having both the current NFL and NHL champions. Of course, their baseball team leaves something to be desired, as they have for what seems to be forever, but I can remember a time when the Pirates would beat all comers, like in 1979, when the had players like Willie Stargell and Dave Parker. Also, the Pirates have in their history this guy, this guy (most famous for winning the '60 series with a walk-off HR), and especially this guy (with whom they won the '71 series).

Pittsburgh, by the way, is not just a sports town (although you can't walk 15 feet anywhere without seeing the logo of the current NFL champion). The public TV station, WQED, was the home for years of Mr Rogers. Perhaps this might look familiar.

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While riding the bus to the PNC Park, we had to cross the Allegheny River. The Roberto Clemente Bridge is the one visible two spans away.

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Outside the main entrance is a statue of Honus Wagner.

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Here was my first view of the field (it rained about an hour before the game).

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Here are a couple of views from our seats on the right field line.

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Before the game started, I got a look at some good news.

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Here are some views of the Allegheny River just before it combines with the Monongahela River to form the Ohio River, taken from behind the RF corner.

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PNC Park has a nice intimate feel even though it seats over 40000. I say this even though there were only 15000+ in the stands that night (another thing in common with our A's).

As mentioned, the Pirates were playing the Cubs. A home game with the Cubs is the NL equivalent of a game with the Red Sox or Yankees - their seemed to be an inordinate amount of (pseudo)North-siders infecting PNC park. I immediately felt a large amount of empathy with the home-town fans. The Cubs took an early lead when Derek Lee blasted a two run shot to the back row of the CF bleachers. I was getting our dinner at the time, so I merely heard the HR (it was real loud). Going back to my seat, I took time for an up-close shot of home.

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Jason Fox was the batter, who was a strickout victim.

One of the vendors at the ballpark is Primanti Brothers. Here are a couple samples of their handiwork.

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Here, the Pirate Parrot eats a baby.

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The A's have Dot Racing. The Pirates have Pierogy Racing!

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Milton Bradley started in RF for the Cubs. He went 0-2 with two walks, and no tantrums. Here he is after his first walk. Milty was later cut down at home on a nice play by third baseman Ramon Vasquez.

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In the 6th inning, leading 3-1, the Cubs had runners at 2nd and 3rd with two outs. Andres Blanco, the 8th hitter for the Cubs was up. Normally, I'd expect a guy with an .568 OPS to be pitched to, but since this is the NL and the pitcher was up next, the Pirates walked Blanco to face starting pitcher Randy Wells. Wells predictably hit a little tapper back to the mound, which Pirates pitcher Virgil Vasquez kicked around two or three times, then finally picked up and threw to first. Now, from my vantage point behind 1B, Wells was safe by, oh, half a mile, but 1B umpire Chad Fairchild called him out. The Cubs' manager is Lou Piniella, who predictably (and justifiably) blew up. Here he is in mid-hat-toss, which got him ejected (note the ump's right arm is at the ready for the ejection).

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Seriously, would it kill Bob Geren to throw his hat once in a while, just to show us he cares?

The Cubs ended up winning, 4-1. There were three GIDPs, two plays at home, and two long home runs, both by Cubs hitters. Cubs LF Sam Fuld made his first ML start count - he led off the game with a doubled in his first ML at-bat, ended the game 2-4 with a walk, and cut down Jack Wilson at home for the last out of the bottom of the fifth to keep the score at 2-1 and end the Pirates last serious threat. Here are a few more random views from PNC Park.

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I mentioned that we were at the game with a number of Mensans. Here they are at the 7th inning stretch, calculating Derek Lee's updated wOBA and WARP3, IN THEIR HEADS.

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A few general thoughts.

PNC Park is a great place for baseball. Hopefully, the Pirates will some day be able to recapture some of their past glory.
The Pirates do a much better job of celebrating their history than the A's - by far. The front gate is on Bill Mazeroski Way, there are #21 signs all over the place, and I noticed that when a home team player was announced, on the score board they would show an old-timer (ie, Willie Stargell) whose picture would morph into today's player (Adam LaRoche).
Pittsburgh is a pretty cool place, even if that Immaculate thing happened here some time back.

Next up for the doctorK family is a game in Philadelphia next Monday night between the Reds and the world-champion Phillies.

Kate's First A's Game

doctorK — Tue, 26 May 2009 01:42:40 -0000

Those of you who were at fANfest might remember my daughter Kate (aka "little miss specialK"), especially those of you who were there early enough to see her fall off the glass staircase at the showroom. Anyway, for her first 8 years, Kate had not yet been to an A's game, so today we decided to fix that little problem.

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My entire photo stream on flickr is available here. Here are some highlights.

A junior ROTC group presented the flag today.

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The Star Spangled Banner and God Bless America were both performed by a sergeant from the Air Force reserve, who, in fact, has an excellent voice.

Chris Jakubauskas was the starter. He was, well, bad.

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Some game observations

We had an ejection after a mystery strickout in the 1st inning (I was afraid they were going to call AK out due to interference by Zooks)
Giambi forgot the count and tried to walk on three pitches, although it seemed to me that the plate ump lost track of the count as well.
Suzuki (theirs, not ours) took advantage of an immobile 1B-man and an inexperienced pitcher to get two of his four hits, only one of which made to outfield.
The only run the Mariners scored was on a HR by Johjima, who hit it with a broken toe. Despite having runners on base for the first 7 innings, the Mariners were offensively inept.
Kevin Cameron pitched three innings for a save. The real save was to give the rest of the 'pen the day off, and to give the fans a day off from the rest of the 'pen.
Buck made a fantastic catch on Beltre's drive to RF that would've made Joe Rudi proud.
Kennedy robbed Sweeney (theirs, not ours) with a terrific sliding catch by the foul line.

Here is Jack Cust's 1st inning RBI ground-out. A productive out is not a True Outcome, Jack.

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Here the A's have runners at 2nd and 3rd in the second inning after Jack Hannahan's RBI double, a rocket to RF that even ~~Ichiro~~ Suzuki could not catch up to.

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And here, we have AK at 2B after his 2-RBI double down the RF line.

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Here is Travis Buck at home plate:

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What is Travis doing there, you may ask. Well, he had just hit the ball here.

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Here are some other things, not quite as impressive.

Suzuki on 1B, for one of four times. This time he was there because Anderson forgot that the pitcher needs to cover 1B on a ball hit to the right side, especially with someone as mobile as Iron Man playing first.

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Yo, Adrian, I don't think you are bad and/or overrated, but that is a nasty line you're carrying so far this season.

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Here, Jack Hannahan demonstrates why trying to sacrifice with a four-run lead, two on, no out, with someone who can't bunt, is a really bad idea.

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Anybody want to guess what Crosby did on this pitch? (To be fair, he did work a walk in this plate appearance.)

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Edit: Here is the last out of the game. You can hear Kate proclaiming that the "Puppies" (her name for the A's) win!

Ah, sweet victory.

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You can't beat good family fun at the old ball park.

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DLD 5/8/09 - Now what?

doctorK — Fri, 08 May 2009 16:12:03 -0000

Seems like everybody has an opinion on Manny:

Lee Jenkins (SI.com)

Tom Verducci here and here.

My favorite comment came from the McC thread (spelling corrected):

Manny being Banny

OK, enough with the PED stuff. How about some other linkage.

LL has a great post on advanced stats, where they encourage those who don't know tRA from EPA to get their questions answered.

The A's actually scored 9 runs yesterday during a day game. Maybe they should consider moving to Barrow, Alaska - starting Sunday, there will be no night games there until early August.

Tim Kawakami had this column a couple of days ago. I normally don't pay much attention to what (little) he has to say, but this line caught my eye (and I'd like it back, please).

Infield non-keepers: Jason Giambi, Mark Ellis, Nomar Garciaparra, Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, Gregorio Petit, Jack Hannahan, Landon Powell.

General Manager Billy Beane has never wasted as much time, energy and money as he has on this predictably injury-ravaged bunch.

If Bobby continues like his last few games, Kawakami might need to change his opinion, but otherwise his Beane comment is right on.

The BART extension to San Jose appears to be going forward.

Happy Friday Dumping.

DLD 4/16/09: BOOM!

doctorK — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 15:59:29 -0000

Just a quickie since I'm at work, and need a new link dump.

No more bus trips for John Madden.

Madden, 73, was a Hall of Fame coach for the Oakland Raiders, but is best known to millions as an ebullient football commentator.

To me, Madden will always be the Raiders coach who happened to go into broadcasting. Edit: You can listen to him talk about it here.

Welcome these guys home.

This has to be the stupidest thing I've seen on an SBN blog (including rosa's strickout post). In the previous DLD, kaweahkaweah made perhaps the best comment I've seen on AN. Needless to say, any good will towards HH that I may had after the Adenhart incident has quickly been wiped away by the Rev's actions (not to mention his lame commentary, such as in this pre-game post).

The dumping, let it commence.

DLD 3/20/09 - March Sadness

doctorK — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 06:02:12 -0000

This being March, the annual basketball mayhem is upon us. My family has a number of college ties, so let's see how we did.

Me: My two schools are UC Davis and Iowa State. Neither team is in any tournament, although ISU's women's team is seeded fourth in the West regional. The NCAA wrestling tournament is this week, and the Cyclones are tied for first place after the first day of action (although I expect the Hawks from Iowa City are going to win it).

My dad: Dad did all his schooling at the University of Illinois, where he was also on faculty before we moved to California. How did U of I do? - FAIL (BTW, I don't know what a Hilltopper is, but they have some cute logos). When we came west, dad took a faculty position at Berkeley. How about them Bears? Oh, yeah.

My brother: Undergrad was at Michigan - yay! Medical school was at Hawaii, (he, unlike me, is an MD) who is not in the tournament. My brother lives near Akron, OH, so how did the Zips do? Nuts.

Obviously, being even remotely connected to my family is the kiss of death for a basketball team this time of year.

Jon Heyman lists 34 (why 34? - who knows) prospects making noise during Spring Training this year. Anderson and Cahill at 10 and 11, Mazzaro is 23

Happy Vernal Equinox (at 4:44 am PDT) to all. Dump away!