If the M's continue their swoon and Sexson continues on his pace .215/.309/.430, 32 hrs, and 91 rbis, would Sexson make it into the type A category, thus giving the M's a 1st round pick.

From BP

• It's not just free agents who are ranked. The system aims to rank the top players in the game overall, considering over 800 players total in this latest iteration. The list includes rookies and other players who are not yet eligible for arbitration, much less free agency. In theory, you could have a situation where none of the Type A or B players are actually eligible for free agency.
• Starting and relief pitchers are considered separately from each other. Position players are divided into three categories: catchers, infielders (shortstops, second, and third basemen), and outfield/first base/designated hitter.
• The rankings are based on the past two years' data. Published reports and regression analysis have indicated that the ranking system is a 100-point scale, and is done by averaging the player's ranks within their categories in certain statistical categories, such as plate appearances, home runs, and RBI for hitters, and innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA for pitchers. It seems that each category is measured based upon a slightly different set of statistics from the others.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6911

If the above (especially the first bullet) is true I'd imagine it would be unlikely that Sexson would fall into category A.  While Sexson usually is a slow starter, if his rating includes only last year (third bullet) he may have some trouble making it into the top 20%. 

I don't know what kind of offers the M's would get for Sexson, but I was curious about any opinions regarding draft pick compensation vs. trade value.  Additionally, where does Sexson rank among free agent 1b?  He is obviously nowhere near Texiera level.  But outside of Thome how does he stack up with everyone else?  Could a team be enticed by his home/road split? 

from Cot's

Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson SEA
Mark Teixeira ATL
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html