Can our basketball team get some from our own fan base now? I think it is pretty clear this team is for real and only going to get better.  Maybe the "i just don't see how our team can finish higher than 7th in conference" posts can stop.  Maybe they will turn into "jezz if we really keep this going we are going tourney again"? That loss sucked and I'm not one for morale victories but it is clear we are an legit team made up of freshmen and sophmores in a system for only a handful of games.

It seems every year in the inner state basketball rivlariers grow that much more instense.  This year will be no different, with a number of subplots and story lines to follow.  One of those story lines will be Who Is Team of the Last Half Decade (at least it will be while we wait for the season to start and look for things to discuss) There is no trophy for winning this title…but given the success of the states programs a debate sure can be made.  Don’t think so…take a look at the numbers for the WA schools of the past 4 years. 

WSU:

05/06 11-17…2 wins vs UW..1 loss vs. Zags.

06/07 26-8…3 wins vs UW..1 win vs. Zags..2nd Round NCAA

07/08 26-9…2 wins vs UW..1 win vs. Zags..Sweet 16

08/09 17-16..2 L’s vs UW…1 loss vs. Zags..1st round NIT

WSU has made a success sandwich the last 4 years.  This year they will be looking to stack more meat to their recent run of success.  Clearly they are the head to head winner vs. the Dawgs taking 7 of the last 9.  They have split head to head with the Zags so this year’s match will go a long way in determining who is the Eastsides top program.  Everyone knows the Cougs are young this year, but so are both UW and Gonzaga.  It should be noted WSU’s run of success came during the Pac-10’s run as the top conference in the country, making each of those wins even more impressive.  An 11-17 season is the worst out of each of the teams, but of course they still swept the Dawgs that year.

UW:

05/06 26-7..1 win vs. Zags…Sweet 16

06/07 19-13 1 loss vs. Zags

07/08 16-17

08/09 26-9 Second round

UW had success in the two years WSU didn’t and vice versa.  They split the match up with the Zags but then canceled the annual showdown.  They look to be back on track after taking the Pac-10 title last year, but a second round exit doesn’t give them the 2 Sweet 16 the Zags have.  UW fans will tell you they hold a 2 game win streak vs. the Cougs.  They may also talk about the previous 10 years….but this isn’t comparing all time teams, just recent history, and the Zags could easily turn that argument around on them.  If UW can win the Pac-10 again this year and make it to the Sweet 16 they will have made a strong case for the title

Zags:

05/-06 29-4 Sweet 16

06/07 23-11 1st round

07/08 25-8 1st round

08/09 28-6 Sweet 16

Gonzaga is the only team to have made the tourney all 4 years. The Morrison team, like the Roy team was great and likely should have gone deeper…but this isn’t about just on year. As we all know they play in the WCC. So basically they are assured 14-18 wins each year depending on the conference and the few non-con gimmies.  Zag fans will argue it isn’t their fault they play in the WCC and do all they can to make up for it with a difficult non-conference schedule. A WSU or UW fan could make the argument played in the Pac-10 in the middle 2 years they would not have likely made the tourney (and there really is no argument in 06/07).  Gonzaga truly plays their hardest non-conference schedule this year, taking on the runner up and 7 other games against NCAA teams from last season.  Of course when compared to WSU’s schedule….14 games vs. NCAA tourney teams, 5 of who were conference champs it doesn’t sound as impressive.  If the Zags can get back to the tourney this year and win a first round game they could make a strong case for top team of the last half decade.

My projected winner….COUGS!

I wouldn’t spend 30 minutes of my work day to write up how I thought UW was going to end up the top team of the last half decade.  I think we are going to split with UW this year, giving us 8 out of 11.  We are going to the Kennel and grabbing a big W there (I’ll take our returning players and new guys vs. their returning players and new guys any day).  And I’ll be damned if Cougs aren’t going to make the tourney this year in a down Pac-10 where it seems every team is reloading (sans Cal a suspect OSU and the worst Oregon team in 10 years)  That would give us the head to head vs. each squad.  A strong set of tourney appearances.  And begs the question, how the hell did that happen in just 5 years?

Zag and Husky fans may argue with my prediction, but the facts do not lie. Should the cards fall as predicted their going to have a hard time making the case they have owned the state for the last 5 years anymore than the Cougs.

Now, regardless of who you think should win this argument pure basketball fans out there can appreciate the level of success 3 different schools are having on the national level.  All 3 schools are young and talented which should make the next few years just as exciting. This next year should be an exciting time, but even more so when Cougs can boast they are team of the last half decade.

Basketball:

In conference prediction: 3rd place.

A lot of things have to go the Cougs way for this to happen, but I think it is more realistic we place 3rd than we do 8th.  The conference is way, way down from the last 4 years.  And while we aren’t up, I don’t think we are down to much from last season.  If you remember, Taylor was one of our worst players on the court until the second week of Pac-10 play started.  We return 3 starters and our 6th man and bring in a class of guys who are ready to contribute day 1.  Combine that with the fact this team is suited more for Bone style offense and I think we are poised for another tourney run.  I expect an Adam Morrison like sophomore campaign for our boy Klay and serious improvement from each returning player (except maybe 1).

For the upcoming season I have my eye on 4 returning players who need to show serious improvement for us to get to the tourney again. Capers, Harthun, NK, and Abe.

Capers:  Hoping for a Kyle Weaver like jump from this guy.  The offense last year was obviously not suited to his strengths (10-15 ft. jump shots).  Hopefully speeding the game up a bit will allow him to get more opportunities to finish around the rim.  You have to assume his jumper has improved, but how much?  On D he will be the lock down defender.  Last year he was forced to guard the other teams best guard most nights…and most nights that was some guy who is now playing in the NBA.  A year older, bigger, stronger, and more experienced I expect him to rack up the steals and blocks.  Expect him to get to the foul line more and provide nice versatility in the back court playing the 1,2,3 if needed.

Harthun:  The biggest recruit before Klay blew up at the end of his senior season, saw the game mostly the way I saw it...as a spectator.  Part of that might be some weed trouble to start the season, part because he couldn’t figure out how to defend, and part because it is hard to stand around for 30 seconds then hit a jump shot.  Earlier this year Bone said he expected big thing out of Mike and so do I.  We need another shooter who can knock down the big 3 when Klay is seeing a triple team. The worry for me isn’t going to be his O this season, but the D.  Will he be able to stay in front of the other guards? With more minutes he will impress the Coug fan base at either the 1 or 2.  If not…we have two very athletic freshmen guards who will gobble up those minutes.

Abe:  Abe is 6’7.  He is a 3 point shooter.  At least that is what we have been told.  Last year he shot just under 11% on three.  For him to be on the court he needs to be hitting more like 38%+ from 3.  I’m ok giving him the first 5 games to see if last year was just a case of the freshmen jitters, or if in fact he just isn’t ready for the big time.  My guess is he is close, but not completely ready.  Obviously hoping he can prove me wrong. I expect we will see improvement on D, rebounding, and overall strength.  But if he is on the floor he has to knock downs shots from 3 guard spot.

NK: Read a piece on NK the other that I thought was interesting.  He was talking about how he likes the style of play with Bone better and he is excited to be able to get more shots in the up and down offense.   I am praying just as much as any other Coug fan that he has a Justin Detmon esc. senior year, but would not be shocked by more of a Hammerling like Senior year.  He had a 1.2/1 asst. to turnover ratio and basically shot 27% from three.  Mind you 90% of those were wide open 3’s when someone doubled on Baynes,Taylor or Klay. What I want out of Nik is D, hard fouls, heady play on O, and rebounds on both ends of the floor.  If he isn’t able to provide those there are plenty of guys who can shoot sub 30% on three’s that can.

You could write a nice 3 pager on each of these guys and what we should expect vs. what we hope from them.  I am just hoping to throw some more bball talk out there before Friday.  Getting sick of the only b-ball stuff out right now is the Times full length covereage of the goo bags in purple everyday.

There is a lot of talk about how Gonzaga is just to good to beat this year. This is a game most people picked us to drop when looking at the early season schedule. That talk makes me sick.  We have been the team to beat in WA the last two years, and I expect us to keep that going. Below are a few reasons why I like the Cougs wenesday (other than the fact i'm a die hard)

1.     We have beat them the last two times, and almost beat them the time before that at home when freshmen Josh Akognon missed a jumper to win it.  Point is, what we do works against them, regardless of how much “talent” they have.

2.     Mark Few is known for his ability to get out coached in the second half of a ball game. Tony B. is known for making adjustments at half time and turning a game around.  Our team also shows discipline in all facets of the game while Zags players have fro hawks.

3.     Are they really THAT good?  Sure they beat a Tennessee team that looks ok.  Everyone else they have played looks awful average.  We have played and lost to Baylor and Pitt, two teams that are in my opinion better than every team the Zags have faced so far. The Zags also rarely improve from their first to last game (see last 8 seasons) Our team is getting better every day, especially some of our key frosh.

4.     Our defense. Remember last year how frustrated all their players were?  Same guys out there this year.  They have yet to face a team who grinds it out like we do. They did face an Indiana team who tried, and with no legit D 1 players were able to keep it close.  I like us late in that second half when the crowd is rocking causing them to jack up fade away three’s.

5.     Shaq Baynes. He is shooting 63% from the field this year and has faced the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and arguably the best defense in the country.  Hytvelt is no match for him and they likely will just go into a zone.  When they do expect our guys to be ready to shoot the lights out in their home gym.

6.     Taylor really likes putting the dagger into the hearts of our in state rivals.  I still have the ESPN highlights from last season on my DVR.  He's also do for a good game, and what better time than Wednesday night at 7PM in Beasley?

Expect a battle, but expect a WSU win. Go Cougs.

Funny how 2 weeks can change things.  2 weeks ago we had no clue what WSU basketball was going to bring to the table.  I personally was excited to be able to just cheer my team on after expecting a W everytime we played.  Then a funny thing happened.  We dominated. ASU and Pitt were unable to show the same domination we did.  And expectations grew quickly.

Over that same half month UCLA, USC, UW, and Arizona have all lost to unranked teams.  ASU has looked anything but dominate. The bottom half of the conference has looked weaker than the WCC.  It is fair to say this conference is wide open.  With our style of play, and rompus home court ,we should expect to be in every game this year.  I know its early, but i'm excited....and all Coug Hoop fan should be.

"it's better to expect great things and be disapointed than to expect the status quo and be a loser"

Wade Boggs 1991 after he drank 74 beers on a flight from NY to Seattle