SB Nation User Blog: dontkickthebaby

Padres' players emerging in winter leagues

dontkickthebaby — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:57 -0000

I saw this little nugget in an mlb.com story:

He currently has a 0.96 ERA in the Dominican Winter League.

"He" is Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick of the San Francisco Giants last year who was cut at the end of spring training and ended up with the Padres. Perhaps he'll also end up being a bigger steal than Everth Cabrera.

But he's not the only Padres' gem polishing his game in Latin America this winter.

If any of you saw an earlier post I did this week, you'll remember me taking a shot at Radhames Liz, and getting his name transposed. I apologize on both counts. In a tiny sample of four games and 13.2 innings in the Dominican Winter League, Liz has struck out 13, walked four and compiled an ERA of 0.66.

And for those of you who inferred that the Padres know more about what they're doing than I do, well, you were surely right. Liz is playing for Estrellas de Oriente, the same team Eulogio de la Cruz is playing for. The Padres, who picked Liz off waivers, just put de la Cruz on waivers. He has an ERA of 27.00, though in the tiniest of sample sizes -- 2.1 innings over three games. He has walked three and struck out one.

And as Corey Brock noted a few weeks ago, Luis Durango is also in the Dominican league. He has his OBP at .409, though his avg has dropped precipitously over the past couple weeks, down to .315. He has also stolen 10 bases and been caught thrice. He has had 127 at-bats in 37 games.

Those are the Padres in the Dominican league, at least. I don't have time to check the rosters of the Mexican, Puerto Rican or Venezuelan leagues. Perhaps I'll do that tomorrow.

Is Rule 5 drafting now a form of contemptible gunslinging?

dontkickthebaby — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 05:22:21 -0000

As it stands now, the Padres are ineligible to participate in Friday's draft of unprotected minor-leaguers. Only teams that have space on their 40-man rosters may participate, and the Padres topped themselves off a week-and-a-half ago when they claimed some guy named Liz off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles -- a guy named Liz with a 7.50 career ERA. Yikes. Perhaps Rule 5 participation is now considered a form of dumpster-diving that has no place in an organization that thinks strategically.

Not only did Liz Radhames, a 26-year-old Dominican, put the Padres' roster at 40, he gave them their 27th pitcher. That's right. Nearly three-quarters of the Padres' roster is dedicated to one position. While the Padres are carrying more pitchers than any other mlb team, there are a few other teams that are also pitcher-heavy: the Nats, 26; Jays, 25; and Yankees, 24. The Giants, 16, are carrying the fewest pitchers, and the mlb average is 20.5.

Unless the Padres do some paring before Friday's draft, they will not be able to take a chance on one of a couple players who might be able to fill one of a few holes that a team with 27 pitchers is bound to have.

One of those holes is a pit. The Padres have only one catcher, Nick Hundley, whom Jake Peavy refused to throw to last year. But Hundley's game-handling skills are not his only weakness. Now that Brian Giles is gone, Hundley's career .238 average is the lineup's most glaring weakness -- if you don't count Kevin Kouzmanoff's April, May and June at-bats.

The Padres' 40-man roster also shows the club's lingering refusal to own up to poor draft selections. Second baseman Matt Antonelli, who has been unable to hit triple-A pitching for the past two seasons, is taking up space on the roster. The Padres grabbed him with the 17th overall pick in 2006.

I suggest a trade of sorts. Get rid of Antonelli and take a shot at a catcher available in the Rule 5 draft. Robinson Chirinos is a skinny kid from Venezuela whom the Cubs did not bother to protect. Well, not much of a kid; he'll turn 26 during the upcoming season. Last summer, in 227 at-bats with the Daytona Cubs of the high single-A Florida State League, Chirinos came through with a .400 OBP. He has a similar percentage so far this winter in the Venezuelan league -- and seven HRs -- in 116 at-bats. All along, he has kept his strikeouts to a minimum.

Or take a chance on another second baseman from the South Atlantic League (Last December, the Padres plucked Everth Cabrera out of the same league, then put him at shortstop). Harold Garcia appears to have similar attributes to Cabrera. He's from Latin America. He is 23 and under 6-feet tall. And the skill sets seem to be similar: Garcia is fast; he had 42 stolen bases last year, though he was caught 12 times. His Sally numbers were better than Cabrera's had been. He averaged .291 (Cabrera was around .280) and had an OBP of .350. But also like Cabrera in the year before he jumped to the majors, Garcia struck out a ton last summer -- 100 times to 29 walks. Very Kouzmanoffian.

As it stands now, the Padres will leave it to other teams to find this year's Everth Cabrera.

Tony Gwynn is a mutant

dontkickthebaby — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:26:14 -0000

First, allow me to illustrate what nomal human beings look like:

Adrian Gonzalez -- .244 average at Petco, .306 on the road (his home run splits are 12-28)

Everybody's favorite Rule 5 pick -- .230, .276 (his stolen base splits are 5-20)

Chase Headley -- .208, .305

Will Venable -- .215, .299

Kyle Blanks -- .216, .288

Kevin Kouzmanoff -- .220, .287

David Eckstein -- .232, .286

Nick Hundley -- .236, .241

Have you noticed the reality? Nobody born on this planet hits better at Petco than they do everywhere else, though Nick Hundley sucks almost as much everywhere else as he does at Petco. But we'll forgive him since he's a pigeon-toed catcher.

So how do you explain Tony Gwynn hitting .279 at Petco and .261 on the road?

Perhaps this is why the Padres front office, and by that, I mean the guy who got fired, is so high on the obese Tony's son.

I just learned to like Skinny Tony a whole lot more.

Let's ignore the fast and exciting guy

dontkickthebaby — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:34:45 -0000

who can get on base with his speed. Luis Durango basically steals a victory Thursday afternoon, days after the big call-up from double-A. Shows he's someone who in the future might help a club that plays in Petco. Gives an indication that he might be someone who could benefit from some September at-bats for a team that is going nowhere.

So what does Bud Black do? Forgets about him. Today's will be the second game since Durango put on his Speed Kills show that he is not in the lineup. So who's taking his place? Anthony Gwynn and Drew Macias. It's not like we don't know how successful these guys are at getting on base.

Can't wait until this morning's exciting 9:30 start.

Orthodox and unorthodox

dontkickthebaby — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:01:29 -0000

A few thoughts about Friday's moves ...

Bad luck losing Arturo Lopez like that. Perhaps the Padres saw enough of him to know that he faces long odds of ever establishing himself in the majors, but I figured the Padres had seen enough of 2B Matt Antonelli (.175, .298, .282 this year at triple-A, .215, .335, .322 last year at the same level) to make the same judgment. Antonelli was the Padres' 2006 first-round draft choice (No. 17 overall), though, and I'm sure keeping him is simply considered orthodox decision-making in major league circles. ...

Is ironic the right word to describe the Mariners -- the team for whom the Mendoza Line's namesake started 148 games one year -- claiming a shortstop who's batting more than 40 points below that line? Or is the right word hopeful? Because if they'll take Josh Wilson, perhaps we can interest them in Brian Giles, who is only seven points below the Mendoza Line! ...

When I first started hearing radio personalities talk about it, when I first started seeing comments on Padres sites about it, I thought the idea of batting Everth Cabrera ninth was the stupidest thing I had ever heard. But that was when I was under the giddy impression that he could continue his rehab-assignment hot streak in the majors. Now that I've checked back into reality, I realize that Cabrera, only a graduate of low single-A ball, will probably be saying hello to the Mendoza Line himself at some point this year, and the idea of putting him ninth in the order and making a one-two speedball out of him and Gwynn is brilliantly unorthodox. ...

I'm also wondering where that talk of batting Cabrera ninth began? Was it on the radio or a blog? Or did the Padres themselves throw it out there? I don't live in SD, so I don't know, but I kind of like the thought that it was an idea put forward by fans, went viral and caught on with the Padres' decision-makers.

Who will follow Cabrera to the major-league club?

dontkickthebaby — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:48:18 -0000

We know that Everth Cabrera's tour of the Padres' minor league system is over and that he's on his way to the parent club beginning Friday night. We also know that unlike most Rule 5 guys, Cabrera has earned his way onto the big-league roster. That is if you can earn anything during a 14-game "rehab" stint.

Cabrera finished his trip through Lake Elsinore and Portland riding a 10-game hitting streak.* Overall, he had a .360 avg., .439 OB% and .899 OPS. In 50 at-bats, he managed 18 hits, scored 12 times and stole five bases. He was also caught stealing three times and picked off once.

One strange fact: After running at seemingly any chance in Lake Elsinore, Cabrera appeared to make a conscious effort to slow things down in Portland, where he attempted only one steal. That came in his first game. His numbers seem to show he has lost the knack he had last year when he led all of professional baseball with 73 steals. Is there a nagging injury? Did he, like Cliff Floyd before him, get fat and slow during his stay on the IR? Was he merely saving his legs for the big leagues? Did he make a deal with the Devil, giving up his speed for some pop in his bat?

Perhaps Corey Brock will let us know.

But before Corey does, let's make a guess as to who will follow Cabrera onto the 25-man roster. Field-position-wise, at least.

In Portland, there are really only two guys to consider. One is 30-year-old catcher Eliezer Alfonso, who in 41 games is hitting for average (.306) and power (10 HRs). But any call up is unlikely. The Padres really believe in Nick Hundley, and I just don't see them casting off Blanco. Besides, Alfonzo has struck out 39 times in 147 at-bats and walked only four times.

Then there is Kyle Blanks, the firstbaseman being forced to learn the outfield because of Adrian Gonzalez and who, after a rough patch of a few weeks, is finally bringing his average back up. His current numbers: .283, .391, .865. But while he is getting on base, he's not knocking the ball out of the park like he was earlier in the year and in spring training.

By the way, Drew Macias, who has been up and down between the Padres and Beavers all year, is ice cold (.223, .314, .631). And so is Mike Baxter, recently moved up from double-A San Antonio, where he was tearing up the Texas League. The outfielder is .229, .289, .632 with Portland.

In San Antonio, there is one possibility -- Luis Durango. The 23-year-old Panamanian continues to hit (.317), draw walks (42 against 32 Ks), steal bases (26 against 13 caught stealings -- a horrible ratio) and score (44 runs). But he plays the outfield, where the Padres would like someone who has some power. Durango has zero HRs.

My prediction: The Padres will finally call up Kyle Blanks before their June 23 game at Seattle and stick him in the lineup as the designated hitter. DHing will mean Blanks will not have to learn a new position at the major-league level. At least not initially. And the Padres really want to say sayonara to Cliff Floyd. The guy got a pinch single yesterday and then had to be pinch-run for because of his gimpy leg.

*About that 10-game hitting streak: I did not count the Beavers' June 14 game in which Cabrera came on to pinch hit and drew a walk. That was his only plate apperance. Does that ruin a hitting streak? He did not have an official at-bat. I don't know the official rule.

Our 2008 Rule 5 draftee

dontkickthebaby — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 13:26:03 -0000

It looks like the Padres' shortstop position is about to be upgraded. Luis Rodriguez seems to have finished his rehab stint (4-14 with a homer in four games at Lake Elsinore). But perhaps there's some bigger news. Everth Cabrera, the 22-year-old who is expected to be the Padres' starting shortstop before the end of the season, is on fire.

Like Rodriguez, Cabrera has also finsished his Lake Elsinore assignment. In seven games, he went 9-23 with four RBIs and seven runs. That was good for a .391 avg, .500 OB% and 1.022 OPS. Then Thursday, in his first game after being bumped up two levels to triple-A Portland, he went 2-4 with a stolen base.

Obviously, when he's forced back on the major league roster due to his Rule 5 draftee status, he's not going to continue producing like he has for the past week-and-a-half. But think about what he's done. He spent six weeks letting a broken hand heal, sitting in the Padres' dugout and watching a whole lot of crappy at-bats in a whole lot of losses. He should be ice cold, but he picks up a bat and swings it like he's never done before. Last year for the Rockies' low single-A club in Asheville, Cabrera managed to bat .284. So where did the .391 come from followed up by two hits in triple-A?

By way of comparison, Cliff Floyd also rehabbed in Lake Elsinore for seven games, going 4-21 (.190).

Where ever Cabrera found his bat, he seems to have lost his legs. He was caught stealing three times while with Lake Elsinore (he also succeeded on four other tries). That's an embarrassing stat for last year's pro baseball stolen base leader. In 2008, Cabrera stole 73 bases while getting nabbed 16 times.

He's not eligible to come off the DL until Friday, June 19, when the Padres host the Oakland A's for the first of three games. And, perhaps, when we'll be saying sayonara to Josh Wilson and his .100 batting average.