
dontstopbelieving
Jun 11, 2009 Jun 01, 2012 37 1870
RSSUser Blog
Rubin on source of Lutz's recent injury
Buried in an interesting post on Travis Taijeron and other minor league notes (including Bobby Scales' return to Japan) is the first mention I've seen of the source of Zach Lutz's broken hamate bone. It says he broke it "swinging in a cage pregame." There's nothing in the article to suggest that he was hit by anything.
Assuming that this was a non-contact injury, I think it's at the point where we need to resign ourselves to the fact that while some of his prior injuries (e.g. HBPs) may have been simply bad luck, an injury like this (as well as Lutz's history of previous stress fractures) suggests that Lutz is, unfortunately, prone to injuries that will likely prevent him from ever being a regular major leaguer. Which is too bad, since he can clearly hit.
Maybe Rob Johnson isn't as awful as we think
Rob Johnson appears to be the choice to take Josh Thole's spot on the roster, hopefully only temporarily. Most or the analysis of Johnson I've seen suggests that he's woefully inadequate even as a backup. Although I tend to largely agree with that analysis, I figured it couldn't hurt to play devil's advocate.
The Ware spot was actually right
Like most people, I thought the officials' short spot of what looked like a first-down run by DJ Ware in the 3rd quarter of Sunday's game was incorrect. The Giants didn't challenge, and to make matters worse, TV showed no replay - although Pereira tweeted that he saw a replay and it was the right call. Thanks to the excellent blog FootballZebras, though, there's evidence that the call was actually correct - Ware's butt was down short of the first down. The real culprits here are Fox, for not showing any replays that would have confirmed the refs' spot on the play.
The legitimate questions regarding the Mets' pursuit (or not) of Jose Reyes
68 comments
|
1 recs |
Tweet
Chris Young - ready by Spring Training?
Interesting. Given his injury history, I'd imagine that at this point he'd be looking for either league-minimum or even a minor-league contract. He certainly performed well enough in his very limited time to warrant at least a look, and I wonder if the Mets generated enough good will with him last year to be a first choice.
Crazy idea - with his shoulder issues, maybe conversion to a reliever wouldn't be out of the question? On the theory that he'd stand a better chance of staying healthy with more limited innings.
The best David Tyree catch audio on the web
So apparently someone has taken it upon himself to upload the entirety of Super Bowl 42 to Youtube...in Spanish. I don't speak a word of Spanish, but this has got to be the best call of the Tyree catch I've ever heard (fast-forward to the 10-minute mark for the fun). Just a bit more emotional than Joe Buck, no?
Then click here to get the Burress TD and the end of the game.
Royals DFA Kila Ka'aihue
Any reason not to put in a claim? Admittedly, assuming Ike makes a recovery, he'd either be a bench piece or a AAA masher, but it can't hurt to have depth. Plus, lefty power (and power in general) isn't something to sneeze at. KC never really gave him much of a chance at the big league level, and he's certainly an Alderson-type player with good plate discipline.
The Mets Should Bench Jason Bay For the Rest of the Year
Yes, yes - another Jason Bay post. This is less about what to do with him for the long-term, which is a question for the off-season and beyond, but what to do between now and season's end. My view is that the long-term interests of the team warrant benching Jason Bay so that the Mets can have a closer and better look at players who might - or might not - be useful pieces for the team in upcoming years.
34 comments
|
1 recs |
Tweet
Mike Jacobs makes history!
I guess the home-run-in-his-first-at-bat thing will now be a few paragraphs further down in his bio. Too bad; for all of his faults, I always had a soft spot for him after his unsustainable hot streak to start his career in 2005.
WAR Games: Bay and Hairston
Jason Bay: 338 Plate Appearances, 0.6 WAR (Fangraphs)
Scott Hairston: 108 Plate Appearances, 0.8 WAR
I'm not going to pretend that Scott Hairston's level of production (swelled, obviously, by his game yesterday) is sustainable (if it were, and he played the whole season, he'd have the 3rd-highest WAR on the Mets, behind only Reyes and Beltran), but at this point playing Bay over him is folly. He clearly has far more raw power (.296 vs .095 ISO), and is simply a better player. I know this is beating a horse that has already been fashioned into glue, but if the Mets are going to continue to toy with the idea of contention, it simply doesn't make sense to keep giving Bay starts in left. I'm tired of getting false hope every time Bay flares a single to right-center that "this time" maybe he's got it. If the Mets are going to do things like using Izzy over Parnell as a closer - indicating that they're placing a priority on winning games this year - then it's about time Hairston got his shot.
The apocalypse is nigh
A New York MSM sportswriter praises the Mets? Actually calls them overachievers and uses the words "grit" and "gritty"? Advocates the re-signing of Jose Reyes? Wow.
Inspiration
from Mr. Jake Taylor.
A heartfelt plea to the MS Paint AA community
As always, I look to this community for a humorous distraction from the ridiculousness surrounding the Mets. I believe this calls for an MS Paint (or perhaps a notch or 2 above) project, but I am not skilled in such arts - perhaps sparbz or someone else can step up. Here's the request: Can someone put together a Rachel-Phelps-esque Fred Wilpon picture (complete with "YOU GUYS STINK!," of course), with the below-head portion cut into 70 sections. I chose 70 because I calculated the average (mean) of wins for every NL wild card winner except the first, the 1995 Rockies, because they were significant outlier (only 77 wins) due to the strike-shortened season. That average is 91.6, rounded up to 92. The Mets have 22 wins, so, 92-22=70, meaning, 70 wins to reach the playoffs. It could be updated every time the Mets win to reflect our inevitable march to the playoffs inspired by the team's unified hatred of the owner. (As Taylor said in Major League after being told of Phelps' plot, "There's only one thing left to do...win the whole fuckin' thing.") As part of this plea, to protect our health, lunches, and SFW nature of the site, I propose a neutral behind-the-clothes picture rather than anything resembling a nude Fred Wilpon. Perhaps a Mister Met or something. Is anyone equal to the task?
Multiple Mets personnel said no decision has been resolved on second base, and the speculation continues to be Brad Emaus or Luis Castillo will emerge as the second baseman, with Daniel Murphy also on the roster.
In response to a report naming Luis Hernandez as Terry Collins' preference, one Mets person said, referring to a Mets infield prospect: "Why did we send [Jordany] Valdespin down?" The answer: Because evaluations are based on 2010 showings far more so than spring-training showings.
Hu and Who
So yesterday, Adam Rubin put up his projected Mets 25-man roster at this point. I can't really argue with any of them as projections, in terms of them being predictions of what's likely to happen. But as to the merits of this roster, one thing I wanted to throw around is the matter of Chin-Lung Hu. Pretty much every projection I've seen assumes that he will make the major league roster. Such projections seem warranted in light of the Mets' holding a press conference to announce his signing a couple months ago, indicating that they view him as a means of promoting themselves in the Taiwanese market.
I'm going to address this purely from a performance standpoint, though - is there a strong reason to have a slick-fielding, poor-hitting middle-IF on the team, particularly given that the Mets' starting SS is one of their best players? Hu is more or less worthless as a PH (heck, I'd probably prefer Dickey), which makes our bench weaker. That hopefully will be mitigated by the fact that I expect that this regime will be smarter and less rigid about using its backup catcher as a pinch-hitter than JerryBot (as well as less wasteful of players in attempts to get purportedly favorable matchups) , so hopefully Hu doesn't see many at-bats, but it's still a liability in longer games needing multiple pinch-hitters.
Hu's primary value, as I see it, is as a late-inning defensive replacement at 2B or a spot-starter/injury-emergency-replacement for Reyes at SS. That's not to be sneezed at given (1) that whoever winds up at 2B will probably be a defensive liability, and (2) Reyes's recent injury history, which probably warrants giving him more days off to preserve him. That said, Hu's bat is basically in Alex Cora territory, and his presence on the bench means that a superior hitter (at this point, possibly Nick Evans, assuming that Harris and Hairston make it) will be left behind and perhaps lost for good.
So my question for the field is: is it worth it for the Mets to carry Hu for his glove, or are they better off carrying an additional bat like Evans, and (a) taking their chances with defense at 2B and (b) using a combination of Emaus/ Hairston/ Harris/ Murphy/ whoever as the backup/emergency SS?
What's the deal with Azubuike?
Isola, in the linked tweet above, seems to think that Kelenna's on the short list to get cut depending on who's signed. On the other hand, Hahn's recent tweets have indicated that he's close to returning and would likely see game action soon. Anyone know the real deal?
So, I'm not all that clear...
Did the Mets' owners meet with Bud Selig to discuss the team's finances? Becuase the combination of the headline, sub-headline, and first sentence of the linked article are somewhat ambiguous as to that.
25-man Roster Speculation
With the acquisitions of Young and Capuano, it seems like the Mets have made most of their significant off-season moves, so I thought it would be a good time to play around with a hypothetical 25-man roster. Below is a roster I put together based on my own preferences, but I thought it would be a good place to start some debate. Plus, I like looking at a roster without Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. So here goes:
Octavio Dotel and Jamie Moyer: Random mind-blowing factoids
So Octavio Dotel just signed with the Blue Jays. As a Met fan who was at Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS to watch Dotel, then a rookie, give up the lead and then get the win in the Grand Slam Single game, I couldn't believe that Octavio Dotel is 37 years old.
But then I wondered something and looked a bit further. It turns out that Jamie Moyer, who still has aspirations of playing this year, is about 11 years older than Dotel (11 years and about a week). So 11 years ago, when Robin Ventura hit that ball over the fence and Dotel was a rookie flamethrower for the Mets, Jamie Moyer was 37 - as old as Dotel is now. And he's still pitching. If Octavio Dotel pitched as long as Jamie Moyer, he'd pitch until at least 2021.
GM Possibilities: Towers, Byrnes, Hahn
This is certainly an encouraging list, if in fact Heyman's musings have any basis in fact. As I understand, they're all forward-thinking guys who could hopefully be counted on to steer things in a more analytics-driven direction as opposed to the guesswork of the Minaya regime. I didn't know a whole lot obout Hahn, but this article makes him sound promising. And my guess is he'd come the cheapest, given that he's never been a GM before.
The Opening Day Roster: Where Are They Now?
A lot of this - well, all of it, really - is plowing over old ground, but I thought it was worthwhile doing anyway just as a demonstration. The 2010 Mets opening day roster was full of the products of questionable decisions (as the link in this post title indicates). How did those decisions pan out? Let's take a look.
Still on active roster
Blanco
Castillo
Wright
Pagan
Santana
Pelfrey
Feliciano
Niese
Takahashi
Traded for minimal value
Barajas
Francoeur
Designated for Assignment
Jacobs * **
Matthews
Cora
Catalanotto
Nieve *
* Assigned to minors after clearing waivers
** Later traded for minimal value
Sent to minors
Green
On active roster after demotion and recall
Mejia
Igarashi
Tejada
Injured
Tatis
Maine
Rodriguez
Bay
In his own special category
Perez
With the understanding that even good teams make many roster moves over the course of a season, this list is simply staggering. No less than half of the Mets' opening day lineup, pitcher excluded (Barajas, Jacobs, Frenchy, Cora) has either been DFA'd or traded for peanuts. In other words, no less than half of the players whom the Mets deemed the most worthy and capable hitters in their entire organization have subsequently proven to have zero or extremely minimal value. The rest of the opening day roster was riddled with bad decisions that had outcomes that were entirely foreseeable, such as Oliver Perez' ineptitude, Maine and Green's injury problems, FCat having nothing left, and the Mejia debacle.
The Mets did ultimately "correct" many of these mistakes, but the motto for this season should be "A Day Late and a Dollar Short." The Mets' unwillingness to spend resources on glaring holes such as 2B left them exposed, and their unwillingness to make obviously necessary moves until the last possible minute, have cost them numerous games and have brought them to this point. And the fate of many of the players on their opening day roster is an indictment of the judgment of the team's management.
Mejia tonight
7 IP, 1 H, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 R. Something to get excited about.
Justin Morneau, Clubhouse Cancer and Loser
Hmm. Maybe the Twins will trade him straight-up for Beltran? One problem for another.
The Core and the Mets vs. Patrick Ewing and the Knicks
Reading through a lot of the media drivel that's been written about the Mets over the past few weeks, is anyone else having flashbacks to the way that the media treated Patrick Ewing during his time with the Knicks? Much like, say, David Wright/Carlos Beltran/Jose Reyes, Ewing was an outstanding player who, for most of his career, was never surrounded with an adequate supporting cast, yet was consistently blamed when things didn't work out the way fans hoped they would. Like Beltran, he wasn't the most outgoing guy and didn't have the greatest relationship with the fans and/or the media, and that seemed to affect the way he was treated. Ewing was never truly appreciated after he was long gone and the fans recognized just how much of a hole he left. No real analysis here, just musing...
Walkoff losses and the use of Francisco Rodriguez
The Mets have 12 walk-off losses this year. These losses have had a major impact on their record; had they won, say, even one third (4) of those games, their playoff position would look dramatically different (and better) than it does today. In the MSM, writers use the walk-off losses to bemoan the Mets' lack of "clutch" hitting or "fire." In the stats-based community, on the other hand, close games like these are often chalked up to randomness - indeed, David Biderman of the Wall Street Journal recently noted, discussing the Mets, that "sometimes this walk-off loss statistic is nothing more than a product of bad luck" (emphasis added). Stats like Pythagorean Record are used to estimate what a team's record "should" be, based on runs scored and runs surrendered, and it is normally expected that a team's eventual winning percentage will be close to its Pythagorean winning percentage once the luck evens out. The Mets' Pythagorean Record right now is 54-46, three games better than their actual W-L record, suggesting that they've been a bit unlucky in this regard.
But of course, close games like walk-offs are also where managerial decisions can contribute much more heavily to wins and losses. And if a manager is pursuing a particular close-game strategy consistently, and wrongly, then there's less reason to expect that the team's performance in such games will improve. With that, this FanPost (my first!) examines the Mets' 12 walk-off losses and the use - or lack thereof - of Francisco Rodriguez in those games. Very little of this is likely to surprise anyone here, but I thought it would be useful to actually lay out the evidence.
34 comments
|
2 recs |
Tweet
How much more rope would you give Jason Bay?
Jason Bay has been decidedly mediocre for the Mets this year. He's obviously not remotely as poor as Francoeur, in that he's playing above replacement level (1.3 WAR as per Fangraphs), largely because he's getting on base - but he hasn't been very good either, and has clearly underperformed expectations substantially.
This is a theoretical question, since obviously the Mets are not going to do anything of the sort: Assume the Mets begin to play better and remain in contention for a playoff spot, but that Bay continues to muddle along the way he's going now. How much more rope would you give Jason Bay this year (clearly, he'll be around for a while, but this is just for this year) before benching him in favor of, say, something along the lines of a platoon of [Chris Carter/Lucas Duda] and [Nick Evans/Mike Hessman]. It's at least possible that such a platoon would out-produce Jason Bay offensively, although it might be rather poor defensively (I don't know much about Duda defensively, but the other 3 would likely be below-average or well-below-average left fielders). Again, this would obviously involve some roster manipulation depending on the platoon (e.g. DFAing Frenchy and/or one of the catchers), but assume that you can do that.
Basically, what I'm curious about here is: to what extent does Bay's previous track record of production, combined with his current above-replacement-but-not-great production, warrant continuing to play him every day, and to what extent do people think that a platoon along the lines of what's suggested above might be an improvement?
Vote ZeErika!
MiLB.com is hosting "Moniker Madness," an NCAA-tourney style bracket where voters can crown the best name in the minors. I noticed that heading up the Icicle Reader bracket is our own ZeErika McQueen. In a nice twist, he's facing off against 16 seed Mike Piazza (of the Angels' AAA affiliate). Let's send him to the Final Four!
(Incidentally, the names are pretty good, but the Name of the Year Blog still is tops in this category.)
Musing about Ruben Gotay
Given that we're all unreasonably excited over the return of Luis Castillo - thanks to the utter impotence of his replacements - I happened to click over to the Baseball-Reference page of Ruben Gotay. I've always maintained that the demise of the 2007 (and beyond) Mets started with the trade for Castillo and the relegation to the bench of the successful Gotay-Easley platoon, but perhaps that's just me. Then, of course, we inexplicably cut Gotay in 2008 after spring training, undoubtedly because he lacked grission, bunting ability, or whatever. Anyway, Gotay is now 27 years old and playing at AAA Memphis. His OBP is .414, which appears to be no fluke (it was .429 last year in 479 ABs, and his walk numbers have always been good). He's slugging .425, and has 9 homers on the year. OPS is .839. Just wondering - what sort of price do you think he'd command in a trade? Do the Cards see him as a future starting 2B or just organizational filler? He'd be an instant upgrade over anyone we have right now.
If one of us was flat-out sucking, it's easy to do, but you look at it and all of us deserve to play.
These were Jeff Francoeur's comments on June 22 regarding OF playing time on Beltran's return. I present Frenchy's numbers since (and including) June 22:
BA: .213. OBP: .260. SLG: .319. OPS: .579.
And for the traditional types: HR: 1. RBI: 5. BB: 2
The numbers of our favorite Fourth Outfielder(TM):
BA: .367. OBP: .412. SLG: .633. OPS: 1.045.
Traditional: HR: 1. RBI: 8. BB: 3. (Keep in mind that Pagan missed 5 games due to injury.)
Carlos Beltran is playing baseball in an hour.
In a game. With rules, balls, strikes, hitting, fielding, and everything. Anyone else excited?
Showing 1 - 30 of 37 Older