SB Nation User Blog: doublestix

Top 10 outfield prospects

doublestix — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 03:31:30 -0000

Yep it's Saturday night and I'm bored. So here goes. Did not include Maier, but he would have been #2 if included.

1) Derrick Robinson, CF
Age: 20 | Team: Wilmington Blue Rocks (High A)
2008 Vital Line: .245/.317/.321, 92/49 K/BB

Yea, yea. I know. "The next Joey Gathright." I don't think that though.

Robinson's bat speed blows Gathright's out of the water, and I think he's going to develop Kenny Lofton type power. Take a look at Lofton's stats throughout the minors. Yep, Robinson has actually shown more power than Lofton did at the same point in their careers, and Lofton's power as we know it didn't really start to show until he was 23. He's been drawing way more walks the past couple months, which is obviously essential for a leadoff hitter. His speed is well documented, he's stolen 61 bases on the year. He's used that speed to turn into a stud defender in center field as well, which will serve him well with the huge outfield at Kaufman Stadium.

One thing to consider is that although he was drafted as a switch hitter, and because he was a very prominant football player, he's hitting from the left side was very, very weak at the time. His OPS to date this year is .100 points higher from the right side of the plate than the left side. Again, this is another thing the Royals just think is a matter of time thing.

Remember, this was a very raw, yet talented, athlete that we drafted back in '06 in the fourth round. There was a reason some of the scouts in the draft room were PO'd that they passed on him in the third round. I think it's just a matter of time before he breaks out. It's going to reflect in my offseason rankings of Royals prospects too, I have a feeling I'll be ranking him higher than most.

Best case scenario? Again, something like Kenny Lofton or Carl Crawford with better plate discipline offensively, with game changing speed on the bases and in the outfield. I think this is the kind of guy Dayton Moore wants in center field and at the top of the lineup. We know he cares about defense, and a guy like Robinson makes it easier to put defensive deficiencies in corner outfield spots.

2. Joseph Dickerson, LF
Age: 21 | Team: Wilmington Blue Rocks
2008 Vital Line: .297/.376/.442, 48/31 K/BB

Now you're probably wonder why I ranked Dickerson below Robinson despite popular opinion, but if you look up Joe Dickerson in the dictionary, it will say "see Tweener."

Yep. Basically, Dickerson doesn't play center field particularly well, and he doesn't really have the power you want out of a corner guy. He does have a chance to keep hitting .300 (which is what he needs to do to stay on the map) since he doesn't strike out much, but it's certainly not guarantee.

He's been injured since the middle of July, but he's going to play in the AFL where we'll get a chance to see what he does against better competition. Best case scenario, for me anyways, is David DeJesus with a tad more speed in a corner OF spot. Not great, but certainly acceptable.

3. David Lough, CF
Age: 22 | Team: Burlington Bees
2008 Vital Line: .270/.327/.465, 66/31 K/BB

Might be a surprise here. Lough plays a legitimate center field, has speed, and has power. The speed translates better in the outfield than it does on the bases (and he's admitted this is something he needs to work on). But the power is extremely impressive for a center field in the Midwest League, and he's been on an absolute power binge in the month of August.

This was a guy that went to college on a football scholership, and had to get permission from his coach just to play baseball. I think he's a guy that as he continues to play baseball fulltime (rather than splitting time with football), he's going to keep getting better.

I think he's got more upside than Dickerson, and best case scenario for him is a player similar to Nate McLouth.

4. Paulo Orlando, CF
Age: 22 | Team: Wilmington Blue Rocks
2008 Vital Line: .263/.309/.419, 109/25 K/BB

This is completely based on upside. He's got strike zone judgment issues (big time), but it's really not that out of the ordinary from a player that hasn't played much baseball, let alone be from a country where it isn't big (Brazil). But he's got excellent tools -- he's an outstanding defender and has game changing offensive tools.

Upside? Carl Crawford. Chances of reaching that ceiling? Oh, about 5-10%.

5. Brian McFall, RF
Age: 24 | Team: Northwest Arkansas Naturals
2008 Vital Line: .245/.337/.465, 93/37 K/BB

At this point it's really a matter of preference. McFall is very similar to Chris Lubanski, though he's got more playable tools and has better bat speed. McFall is a good athlete who has excellent raw power but has trouble against quality breaking stuff. He can play defense and has a hell of an arm (IIRC) from right field.

Best case scenario? He makes some strides against breaking pitches, makes more consistent contact, and becomes a Jose Guillen (pre this year) type player. But he's already 24, hasn't made many strides yet. Chances of it happening are very low.

6. Hilton Richardson, CF
Age: 19 | Team: Burlington Royals/AZL Royals
2008 Vital Line: .249/.308/.359, 63/18 K/BB

Richardson was the 7th round pick last year, extremely raw player, but he's big and fast and in other words, just has a ton of projection about him. The stolen base totals (10-for-17 don't really indicate how fast he is, he was rated a 70 runner by Baseball America which is plus-plus. He's got a ton of work to do in his game, but has a chance to be a special player if he puts it together.

Oh, and the reason he's playing for AZL now is he's starting community college in Arizona. Was not a demotion in the meaning of the word.

7. Chris Lubanski, LF
Age: 23 | Team: Omaha Royals
2008 Vital Line: .233/.296/.430, 126/35 K/BB

OK, so I haven't completely given up on him, but I'm close. I don't think he'd rank in my top 30 anymore, and in hindsight, #16 was way too high just two months ago. Lubanski has power, and that's his only plus tool anymore. But he has a relatively slow bat and the power mostly comes from the fact that he's a big dude. He can't hit a good breaking pitch, nor can he hit lefties at all. Lubanski's actually gotten too big I think, because he can hardly run at all anymore.

Best case scenario? He learns first base and can fill in at 1B/LF/RF against RHP off the bench.

8. Adrian Ortiz, CF
Age: 21 | Team: Burlington Bees/Wilmington Blue Rocks
2008 Vital Line: .306/.342/.384, 77/22 K/BB

I would like Ortiz a lot more if he would just take a walk here and there, but he doesn't. Ortiz is a good hitter, makes contact, can occasionally put some pop into one, and has really, really good speed. Like David Lough, the speed plays better in the outfield than on the paths, but he's working on it.

9. Nick Francis, RF
Age: 22 | Team: Idaho Falls Chukars/Burlington Bees
2008 Vital Line: .292/.373/.480, 60/24 K/BB

Francis didn't play last year, as part of the group that got suspended for violating team rules. But he's back on the field this year and showing why the Royals selected him in the draft in '06. Francis has got intriguing raw power and good athleticism. In a system that doesn't have much power, this is a guy to watch out for next year.

10. Alex Llanos, CF
Age: 17 | Team: AZL Royals
2008 Vital Line: .188/.244/.238, 53/11 K/BB

Llanos was the sixth round pick this year, and obviously his stats are quite horrible. But he's similar to Hilton Richardson -- good frame, good bat speed, is at least a 65 runner on the scouting scale, and could develop into a good defender (he just moved to CF). Has the tools to be good.

John Flanagan

doublestix — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:58:30 -0000

John Flanagan

This is for the poster (sorry I forgot the name) that asked about him. The fanshot fell off the first page...didn't want you to miss my response. The link is to just to his stats.

First off...congrats from everyone at RR to your nephew for getting drafted.

The thing I like most about John is his projection. I read that he only threw about 83 in high school, but was up to around 90 this year. He's only 20 and has easy mechanics, and could throw even harder as his body continues to mature. Another tick or two in velocity could really put him on the map.

Also he's supposedly got a nice changeup (which if you've read my stuff before, I love that in a young pitcher) and a curve. I read somewhere where a scout compared him to John Rheinecker, although I certainly hope he turns out better than that!

Hope that answered your question...send good wishes from RR!

More Matt Holliday speculation...

doublestix — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 04:50:04 -0000

More Matt Holliday speculation...

Rosenthal believes the Rockies are "almost certain to trade Matt Holliday this offseason." Should be a hot topic at the Winter Meetings in December. Rosenthal says to watch out for smaller-revenue sleepers on Holliday like the Nationals, Royals, and Blue Jays. Holliday, a Boras client, is set to earn $13.5MM in '09 before he hits free agency.

Cortes at it again

doublestix — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:40:02 -0000

Cortes at it again

6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 9 K

Too many walk still...but lovin' the strikeouts.

Burlington Bees throw no hitter

doublestix — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 02:34:01 -0000

Burlington Bees throw no hitter

Duffy: 6ip, 0h, 0r, 2bb, 4k
Abreu: 3ip, 0h, 0r, 1bb, 5k

Right-hander Carlos Rosa hasn’t pitched at Class AAA Omaha since July 13 because of soreness in his ...

doublestix — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:29:59 -0000

Right-hander Carlos Rosa hasn’t pitched at Class AAA Omaha since July 13 because of soreness in his forearm. Club officials don’t believe the injury is serious but are taking a cautious approach since Rosa, 23, is viewed as of the organization’s top prospects. Rosa is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in nine starts since his promotion from Class AA Northwest Arkansas. Tentative plans call for him to test his forearm next week in a simulated game.

Carlos Rosa Update

Kila Kaaihue promoted to Omaha

doublestix — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:24:51 -0000

Kila Kaaihue promoted to Omaha

Naturals first baseman Kila Kaaihue has been promoted to the Omaha Royals, the Kansas City Royals' Triple-A affiliate in the Pacific Coast League, the Royals announced following Monday's game.

This will be Kaaihue's first experience at the Triple-A level. The 24-year old Honolulu, HI resident has had a tremendous campaign, batting .314 with 26 homers and 79 RBI in 91 games with the Naturals this season. He walked 80 times and struck out only 41 times this season. He blasted 18 of his home runs and drove in 52 of his 79 runs at Arvest Ballpark, and batted .400 in two separate months (May and July). The Royals' 15th round selection in 2002, Kaaihue had logged previous Texas League experience in 2006 and 2007 with Wichita. In seven seasons and 737 games at the minor league level, Kaaihue has a .259 batting average, 102 homers, 442 RBI, and has drawn nearly as many career walks (459) as he has strikeouts (509).

Sources indicate that Missouri high school right-hander Tim Melville, who fell to the fourth round...

doublestix — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 05:17:21 -0000

Sources indicate that Missouri high school right-hander Tim Melville, who fell to the fourth round when he indicated before the draft that he wanted mid-first-round money to sign, will get just that and sign with the Royals for more than $1 million.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7823

Duffy does work

doublestix — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 06:36:20 -0000

Duffy does work

Duffy -- 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K (all swinging)

His piggyback partner, Juan Abreu -- 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Also, B-Royals pitcher Kelvin Herrera, who's 19th birthday isn't for another six months -- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K

Cortes Dominates

doublestix — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 03:00:34 -0000

Cortes Dominates

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K