As I sit here in front of my computor and read what happen in the Baseball world over the last 24 hour on mlbtraderumors.com I see an opportunity for the A's. This opportunity is named Roy Oswalt.

Roy wishes to pitch for the Cards or the Rangers. But both those teams do not need him, and thus have made low offers to Roy. The next team on the list, is the Red Sox. Who themselves have a self imposed cap on what they want to spend. Thus again Roy gets a low offer. The Reds and Phillies have kicked the tires, but have to move a pitcher to clear money and space (Blanton, Bailey).

Roy started the winter looking for a rumored 3 years and a maybe 10 million a year. Then he said he would sign for one year. It appears he only has offers in the 5 to 7 million range.

This is the time for the A's to make a big push for Oswalt. If the A's came in with a 2 million signing bonus and another 6 million in pay and say reachable bonus of 2 million. We might just get him. While some A's fan might say that he does not want to come to Oakland, that is nice money and well over what others seem to be offering. "You want to go to Texas, well take 5 million less!"

There are some good reasons for adding a Oswalt. The most important, is the ability to flip a very good stater at the trade deadline. Teams in the hunt, come June or July, might pay a few nice prospects to get a number one or two starter. While teams like Boston, Texas and the Cards might look today like they are set in the rotation, come June, their world has likely changed. Oswalt has been a stud for years, with only last season being a year he did not make 30+ starts.

Adding Roy, also pushes back one of the Parker or Peacock kids back to AAA for a few months. Which would likely help the kids development, and save the A's a year in sevise time.

Roy will/should understand that he is here for half a season. He will go to a playoff contender. Oakland is a stop on the way to his future team. And he will be well payed

I have written about this idea in the past, but with all the teams that Roy wants to go to, dragging their feet, this is a very nice opportunity.

Just got the Baseball America with the AL west top tens. Their top 30 is due out next month. Take it for what you think it is worth. I always find it an interesting read, both this issue and the book when it comes out. This list is up to date, as in the Bailey deal has been made. It also is interesting to go back and look at old issues, and see just how well or how poor the writers did.

The A's

1. Jarrod Parker

2. Brad Peacock

3. Sonny Gray

4. AJ Cole

5.Michael Choice

6.Grant Green

7.Derek Norris

8. Jermaine Mitchell

9. Michael Taylor

10. Tom Milone

Is it just me or does this A's season coming up begin to look more and more like some redo from 1977?

The A's bring in a former MVP, that has had "issues" in the past. 1977 Dick Allen or 2012 Manny? Funny thing, Allen only played about 50 games to start the year and Manny can't start untill after 50 games.

The Charlie O Finley spends all winter and into the season talking to Denver or New Orleans, or is it San Jose about moving the team. ( I still break out into a rash thinking about how each week I would get the Sporting News, and each team would have a write up about some player of theirs. But not the A's, there write up would be about Marvin Freaking Davis, and Denver...boy that sucked. The only news I get about the A's as a kid growing up in New England and it is this...ok so I rant...I am over it)

The A's lose a bunch of free agents, but do keep there fast centerfielder Billy North, or Coco Crisp. I hope Coico plays more than the 56 games North was able to play.

The A's trade their two best starters as the season begins......ok to be fair, Cahill and Gio are gone, and in 1977 Mike Torrez lasted 4 starts before he was shipped to NY and Blue was traded after the season. But 1977 and 1978 sometimes blur, as I get older, so just work with me.

The roll of Joe Coleman, elder statesman starting pitch, well past his prime, will be played B Colon.

......Pennington and Picciolo.....does this mean Pennington will be the Padres 3rd base coach in ten years?

The A's trade anything that Finley thinks he can get money for (Lindblad,Medich, Ellis, Umbarger, Washington) as the season move forward, while Beane trades players for prospects (Fuentes, Balfour, Smith, Gomes, Suzuki)

The Selig/ Kuhn seem to hold the fate of the A's in their hands. Stopping trades or stopping team moves.

Ok, maybe not everything is the same, but it seems to me that there is a lot of that deja vu going on. All we need is our best young second baseman being traded to Pittsburg. Weeks (Garner) for Page, Langford, Armas, Bair ...or maybe we can trade a manager for a catcher.

Doug Melvin, keep your bags packed.

The A's should think about signing Manny Ramirez and Roy Oswalt.

Let us start with Manny. While most of you would think signing Manny is not a good idea, I will try to put to you a plan that would make it worthwhile for the A's. Manny has been suspended by MLB for 50 games. He is looking to come back to majors. It is likely that many teams would not be interest in waiting and dealing with the whole "Manny" thing. So if the A's were to sign Manny to a major league deal that pays him the minimum, but has a bonus system built in, so that when he is activated (after the 50 games is served) he could make more.

The A's would then keep him "locked away" for the 50 games and then trade him. If there is no interest, they could always just cut him. The basic idea is based around, $150,000 bet. You pay Manny for 50 days and then hope that you can sell him off. Likely the A's would have no interest in keeping him, but if they can trade him.

Manny would be interest, because he just wants to get the 50 games done and should understand that he is getting moved soon after the 50 games are up and likely to a team in the hunt. The question becomes, is it worth the cash to try to get more cash or a prospect in the future? Would the A's risk the $150K?

Signing Roy Oswalt is also a bet. If the A's were to sign Roy, for between 8 and 12 million of which 2 to 4 million was a signing bonus the A's would get a few positive points. First, it puts more on the payroll, and if MLB is hot and bothered, about getting the A's to a 40-50 million payroll. this signing gets the A's there. While the A's are getting near that amount, with the Coco signing, they might not stay there, if they trade away Balfour or Fuentes. Second, the A's get a veteran pitcher that gives them one more arm, early in the season to keep a Parker, Peacock or Milone in AAA. And third, and best of all, he is a great chip to trade in June. With the Red Sox rolling out Silva and the Yanks guys like Garcia and Colon, it is very likely that one or two teams would kill to get an Oswalt come June or July.

Problems...well first and formost....is Roy healthy? Sure there is risk. But not my call, but if the A's think he is they should get him.

I guess this comes down to, if the A's would risk money to buy a guy they want to flip. I would think they would be happy paying a few million just to keep Parker and Co down. How much is a B or B+ prospect you might get in a deal? This idea is like what the A's were going to do with Sheets, but he got hurt and screwed up that.

There has been much talk about signing a Ross or a Ludwick. The problem with signing those guys if the A's want to flip them, is that they are still just Ludwick and Ross. They will not get much for them. Add to the idea that hitters come to the Oakland Colisum to die, why bother with hitters you want to flip (Manny is different, because he is not playing). The nice thing about Roy, is that the upside is big. Cost is more but the win is much more. Playing in the Colisum will help Roy.

Anyway, that is it. Hope you enjoy.

Ever since Taj Adib did his interesting FanPost on breaking up the current A's roster, I have been thinking about Bailey's value.  Since the post came up, it looks as if the Phillies are about to sign Papelbon. I thought it would be interest to see people's thoughts.

I thought it was interesting that the Phillies would pay for 4 years at 50 million and lose their first round pick.  I assume they will still offer Madson arbitration and thus get back two picks, so that is a possitive. But just say that the A's had traded Bailey to the Phillies instead.  The Phillies would get the two picks for Madson, but not lose their own pick.  Bailey is likely to get 18 million over the next three years, or about an $18 million savings over what they are paying Papelbon.  18 million might be more than half of what they would need to sign a Rollins or sign one of the type B outfields DeJesus or Kubal or maybe Sizemore if Cleveland does not offer Arbitration. Not going to happen but would they trade Domonic Brown to save that much money and kepp their own pick (pick 30)?

So taking this model and looking at other teams like the Jays and the Red Sox.  So for example the Jays are thinking about Madson they would have to give up the 17th pick in the first round next year and still pay him.  Say Madson would can get 30 million over 3 years,  What is Bailey worth to the Jays at 12 million saved an not giving up pick 17? Is Anthony Gose too much for Bailey or not enough, or if the A's threw in a Rosales do they get a 2nd prospect.  I am not up on prospect value. But if I am the Jays I would much rather have Bailey than Madsen.

One can look at the Red Sox in the same vain.  If they sign a Type A, they lose pick 22 (I think I am getting the picks correct).  Would they be interest in a Bailey and Fuentes offer.  Fix their pen at money of Madson. Maybe a Kalish or a Reddick and some nice A ball pitchers? Enough?

While there are other closers on the market and some are likely not to be offered arbitration, does a team want 35+ year old closers like Cordero (age 36) or Nathan (age 37).  And while there maybe no comp pick, the relievers are not that cheap. They are likely asking more that what Bailey will make.

It will be interest to see what the A's do with Bailey over the winter, .......if they do anything.

Thanks for the time

 

 

 

 

1. Carter

2. Wallace

3. Green

4. Stassi

5. Figueroa

6. Ross

7. Weeks

8. Desme

9. Cardenas

10. Doolittle

11. Ynoa

12. C. Brown

13. Rodriguez

14. Donaldson

15. Mortensen

16. Krol

17. De Los Santos

18. Everidge

19. Leon

20. Souza

21. Ortiz

22. Hoehn

23. Joseph

24 Ramos

25. Carignan

26. Cassevah

27. Marks

28. House

29. Leyland

30. Hunter

Seems odd that Simmons, went form # 11 last year, to off the list. Anyway, lists are always fun.

A few points about these three players...

1) Last year the Blue Jays signed Shannon Stewart to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring training. He made the club and yet the A's did not get a compinsation pick (he was a B). Why not just sign a Cabrera to a minor league deal with a 5 million signing bonus and roster bonus of $ 200,000 every month he is the majors? MLB might not be pleased, but Beane can just point to the year before.

2) I am not sure about getting ride of Crosby. He public enemy number one today, but why? Sure he was far from great last year. Is it expectation? Peter Gammons said he will be MVP once.  He should be this or that and he is not. I say maybe he is miss used.

3) Last year Crosby batted second in the order 142 times, fifth 84 times, sixth 162 times and seventh 85 times. He batted ninth one time! In theory, the lineup next year will have a Holliday, Giambi and Chavez all batting 600 times each. If Crosby is batting 600 times in the ninth spot, the A's would be fine. 450 AB's by Crosby in the 2,5,6 or 7 hole and the A's are not good.

 

With the A's picking up all these new players and with maybe more to come I was wondering what will happen at rule 5 time. Are the A's going to lose two or three prospects that they just traded for?

It is my understanding that players drafted out of College get 4 years before they must be protected and High School players get 5 year.  This might bring up an interesting point when thinking of which players will be called up in September. We might not see a Cahill, Anderson, Simmons or Doolittle this year, because that would save them from the 40 man list.

I believe Pennington, Recker, Cunningham, Gio, Patterson and Outman might need to be added to the 40 man by this November. Not sure if I am doing the math right.

There does seem to be a few guys that would easily come off the 40 man to make room (Foulke, Brown, DiNardo, Gray, Thomas).

I was just wondering if anyone had done the numbers and figured out who must be added and who is likely lost.  If a Street is traded for three players, are they all keepers. And for that matter is next years list going to be worse?

This may not be a big deal, but I bet Beane looks at these dates.

Thanks

 

 

 

 

 

Baseball America's Proscppect Hanbook is out with it's 30 top A's proscects.  It is interesting in that it went to press before the trades of Swisher, Haren and Kotsay.

1. Daric Barton (last years ranking 2)

2. Trevor Cahill (9)

3. James Simmons

4. Henry Rodriguez

5. Andrew Bailey(28)

6. Corey Brown

7. Landon Powell(20)

8. Jermaine Mitchell (5)

9. Javier Herrera(6)

10. Sean Doolittle

11. Jerry Blevins (Cub)

12. Grant Desme

13. Gregorio Petit

14. Justin Sellers(9)

15. Richie Robnett (11)

16. Matt Sulentic(4)

17. Kevin Melillo(13)

18. Vin Mazzaro (18)

19. Sam Demel

20. Dan Meyer

21. Jeff Baisley (21)

22. Andrew Carignan

23. Brad Kilby

24. Cliff Pennington (12)

25. Travis Banwart

26. Josh Horton

27. Anthony Recker (23)

28. Graham Godfrey (Blue Jay)

29. Fernando Hernandez (White sox)

30. Craig Italiano(22)

Players cut from last years list....Windsor (7), Komine(14), Lansford(15), Putnam(16), Lislie(17), Mitchell(24), Ray(25), Webb(26), Lee(29) and Cobb(30) 

 

With Beane starting to clean house with the A's, and looking to 2009 and beyond. There is a different idea than just trading Street for one or two more prospects. How about signing Street to a long term deal, but weight the money on the early years, thus the A's closer will be cheap two years from today.

Continue reading this post »

Shannon Stewart and Mike Piazza declined arbitraton last night. With the old rules in baseball the A's could not resign either player until May 1st, but I belive that rule is no longer in effect. Not that the A's are likely to resign either.

We were all probable holding are breath and praying that Piazza would not accect. A's could only cut Piazza's pay by 20%.

So here is hopeing that both Stewart and Piazza continue their baseball playing with another team. Two Compinsation picks no worse than 48 and 49 would be a nice add to a draft with picks 12 and some pick around 60.

Thought it would help to put out what Baseball America thought of the A's minor league and their top 30 prospects.

1. Travis Buck (last year rating 5)
   
2. Daric Barton (1)
   
3. Kurt Suzuki (11)
   
4. Matt Sulentic (2006 pick 3)
   
5. Jermaine Mitchell (2006 pick 5)
   
6. Javier Herrera ((2)
   
7. Jason Windsor (15)
   
8. Marcus McBeth
   
9. Justin Sellers (17)
   
10. Trevor Cahill (2006 pick 2)
    
11. Richie Robnett (13)
    
12. Cliff Pennington (3)
    
13. Mevin Melillo (6)
    
14. Shane Komine (9)
    
15. Jared Lansford (12)
    
16. Danny Putnam (14)
    
17. Myron Leslie
    
18. Vin Mazzaro (10)
    
19. Ryan Goleski (Clev. not top 30)
    
20. Landon Powell (20)
    
21. Jeff Baisley (30)
    
22. Craig Italano (8)
    
23. Anthony Recker
    
24. Mike Mitchell
    
25. Jason Ray (22
    
26. Ryan Webb
    
27. Ben Jukich (2006 pick 13)
    
28. Andrew Bailey (2006 pick 6)
    
29. Chad Lee (2006 pick 7)
    
30. Larry Cobb (2006 pick 27)

Not on list from last year
Andre Ethier (4) traded
Jairo Garcia (7)
Gregorio Petit (16)
Jimmy Shull (18)
Dallas Braden (19)
Dan Meyer (21)
Brant Colamarino (23)
Connor Robertson (24)
Brian Stavisky (25)
Freddie Byrun (26) traded
John Rheinecker (27) traded
Mike Madsen (28)
Ramon Alvarado (29)

David Shafer was 20th in Cinn after being 26th last year.

Hope you enyoy

Just got the Baseball America Prospect Handbook yesterday and as always it is a good read. They ranked the A's lower than most years, in that they lost great prospects to the big team (Street, Swisher...). Here is there 30 A's prospcts.

1. Barton
   
2. Herrera
   
3. Pennington
   
4. Ethier
   
5. Buck
   
6. Melillo
   
7. Garcia
   
8. Italiano
   
9. Komine
   
10. Mazzaro
    
11. Suzuki
    
12. Lansford
    
13. Robnett
    
14. Putnam
    
15. Windsor
    
16. Petit
    
17. Sellers
    
18. Shull
    
19. Braden
    
20. Powell
    
21. Meyer
    
22. Ray
    
23. Colamarino
    
24. Robertson
    
25. Stavisky
    
26. Bynum
    
27. Rheinecker
    
28. Madsen
    
29. Alvarado
    
30. Baisley

The trade is a few days old an all of Athletics Nation has been putting their 2 cents in on both the Payton and Byrnes deals. My big question is what is the money or cash that the Sox are sending to the A's? I have looked and not seen any listing. The A's I read sent 50 K to the Rockies.

With Payton getting around 3.7 million this year and having a .5 million buy out, the A's are on the hook for about 2.2 million and were able to ship off Bradford and the .6 million he had left. Taking on an additional 1.5 or so million to get Payton seem like something Beane would not do for a part time outfielder.

The Yanks got Leiter and it cost them only 400 K for the rest of the year. Florida threw in 2+ million to get a PTBN.

Money is what grades this deal and until we have the numbers it is hard for me to give a thumbs up or down.

If any one has the cash amount please ...bring it on.

Baseball America has put out it book on the game's top prospects as ranked by them. Here is the A's list.

1. Swisher (last year #6)
   
2. Barton
   
3. Herrera (last year #28)
   
4. Meyer
   
5. Blanton (last year #2)
   
6. Johnson, Dan (#3)
   
7. Street
   
8. Garcia
   
9. Robnett
   
10. Quintanilla (#7)
    
11. Suzuki
    
12. Powell
    
13. Putnam
    
14. Baker (#18)
    
15. Snyder (#25)
    
16. Ethier (#9)
    
17. Windsor
    
18. Knox
    
19. Johnson, Tyler
    
20. Ogando
    
21. Rheinecker (#13)
    
22. Yabu
    
23. Melillo
    
24. Sullivan (#4)
    
25. Bynum (#16)
    
26. Perry
    
27. Petit
    
28. Colamarino
    
29. Rouse (#8)
    
30. Webb

Gone from the list from last year but still with in the A's minors is Brown (#14), Fritz (#17), McCurdy (#19) Kiger (#24), Ramos (#26) McBeth (#27) and Majewski (#29)

I am not sure this has been brought to light. The A's GM in the late 80's and early 90's was Sandy Alderson. If as Tony LaRussa says, he knew that Canseco was using steriods, then it is very likely that his boss, Sandy, knew.

So we jump to today and Sandy Alderson is the #2 guy in the MLB league office and he deals with fines and that kind of stuff. He has been there for a good five years. In fact he might have left the A's to take the job at MLB.

So this new bit of news in the NY Post (I think it was the post)about the FBI coming to MLB and saying you got a problem back 10 years ago is interesting in that Sandy is the one downplaying it. I read an artical that Sandy said that it was a low key statement by an FBI agent to a MLB offcal that was never followed up. Then a few years later there was another FBI call and again it was not followed up.

It seems to me Sandy Alderson has not pushing this issue that he has lived with for 15 years. Sandy made Canseco the highest payed player in baseball back in the mid 90's when he knew that Canseco was on the stuff. And today he is the one who is going to run the clean up?

The A's must be doing something right.

The Red Sox added Billy McMillion to their spring training roster.

So how many years in a row is it that the Sox get one of the A's Players. This is not a complaint, but just an observation.

Foulke
Damon
McCarty
Mike Lockwood
Francna
Beane (ok we got him back)
Je. Giambi
F. Brooks

All pay back for getting Stairs and Hatt?

OK it could be longer talking about Wasdin, Armas, the Selling of Rudi and Fingers...but why?

Kevin Brown : good pitcher, hurt a great deal of the time but good pitcher, paid a great deal too.

So here is the idea. If the Yanks trade Brown and send money to pay his contract, do they pay luxary tax on the amount that they pay of the contract? If they do not pay any tax on money sent in a deal....

The A's trade some bad minor league player for Kevin Brown and 14 million dollars. The A's get a good starter at 1 million dollars and the Yanks get ride of Brown and save 1 million dollars and due not have to pay the 40% luxary tax on Brown's $15 million contract which is 6 million. True the Yanks do not get a player but save 7 million that they have already commited to next year.

OK Brown is a bit of a nut but a 1 million he could be a great #3 on the staff and give a Meyer or Blanton a few more months in AAA. Brown is much better than Astasio, Sele.....

Anyway just a thought in the slow week between x-mas and new years

The A's got Victor Moreno a right hand pitcher in the AAA part of the rule 5. They did not lose any one. Moreno pitched for the Twins and was 7 win and 2 loses and ERA of 2.27 in New Britain (AA). 75 innings with 56 hits and 21 walks and 86 K's. He pitched in AAA Rochester for 11 innings with an ERA of 6.35 and 12 K's. Maybe the next Tim Hudson,,....or more likely not.

Espn reports on their transaction page that the A's declined arbitration to Dye, McLemore, Hammond and Mecir.

With the deal for Kendall seeming to be done, I thought it would be interesting to do the math on what the team is getting payed this coming year and after. Some of the players pay is still up in the air, like Durazo. I tryed to guess a figure. It is a ballpark figure so if I am high or low on arbitration figures when one puts them together (Byrnes, Dotel..) it is probable a wash.

So here goes...
Chavez 8.5
Hudson 6.0
Kotsay 6.5
Mulder 6.0
Rincon 1.95
Zito   4.8
Kendall 10-1=9
Dotel   3.0
Durazo  4.
Hatteburg 2.5
Byrnes   2.0
Ellis     .35
Scutaro   .35
Duch      .35
Melhuse   .35
Keilty    .75
Johnson   .35
Crosby    .35
Harden    .40
Bradford  1.5
Lehr       .35
Street     .35
Swisher    .35
plus 2 more @ .35

25 players about 61 million

So that being added up and the A's at about 58 million payroll the A's will cut 3 million off. This would likely come from Kielty and Bradford being cut and maybe Hattaburg going in a trade for some AA junk. The other way is trading Durazo or one of the big three. An example is Hudson for Arrojo and minor leaguers cuts 5 million. Not good

The 2005 payroll is ok and take on Kendall with small changes but the problems begin in 2006.

2006 payroll
Chavez 9.5
Kotsay 6.5
Mulder 7.25
Zito   8.25
Kendall 11-1=10

if all other players on the team made .35 each, that is another 7 million and 48.5 total. So say A's owners raise payroll to 62 million we would have 13.5 million for Hudson, Byrnes, Dotel, Durazo, Ellis... So, ok we may not need Dotel if Street is good, and maybe Johnson replaced Hatt but if you give Hudson 9 million in his first year of the hoped for 4 year 45 million deal (ok a guess) One of the 5 names above must go.

While it may be nice to say we trade Kendall after on year any sort of bad year in 2005 and the 24 million over 2006-7 would make him untradeable even if the A's throw in the 7.5 they get form Pitt.

On looking at the numbers I am given the veiw that while the big three may stay together for one more year, If the A's sign Hudson they will trade a Mulder or Zito before the 2006 season starts.

Hope all this adds up