SB Nation User Blog: douglast

Frye the odd man out?

douglast — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 07:15:38 -0000

With Oden coming back, and Martel's return on the horizon, it's beginning to look to me like once again Channing may be the odd guy out of the rotation. He has been playing almost exclusively at center of late which has shown two things: he is not a center, and Travis is much better as a backup 4 than any kind of 3. It's safe to say Joel and Greg should pretty much command all the center minutes between them, leaving time at that spot for Frye only in cases of serious foul trouble or if we really want to draw someone out of the lane. Either way, it's spot duty at best.

So, the question become the backup 4 spot. Do we slide Channing back there, pushing Outlaw back to the 3 spot, and play less 3 guard sets? That may be the case in the short term, but two things could change that. first, if Outlaw's effectiveness takes another big hit while playing at the 3 spot, and second, once Martel comes back. Sure the conventional wisdom may be that Batum is out of the rotation at that point, but I'd have a hard time not putting this kid on the floor - he just seems to make things happen out there. So, in the alternative rotation, you could see Batum as the backup 3 and Travis as the backup 4, leaving Frye as the 11th man.

Personally, I really like the idea of a Sergio/Rudy/Batum/Travis 2nd unit much better than Sergio/Rudy/Travis/Frye. What do you all think?

So you want to make a poll... (now with poll)

douglast — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 23:22:18 -0000

I submit to BlazersEdge the following suggested guidelines for poll creation.

1) If your have more than 5 voting options, you may have too many. Consider either re-phrasing the question, or removing qualifications from the answers to make them more generic and thus requiring few of them. The voters will fill in the details in their comments. Diluting the votes across a large selection of answers usually results in a poll from which we can draw little conclusions. If you still end up with a lot of answers but feel you are covering all options and there is no room for further cutting, then go with it.

2) If the question is yes or no, have the answers be "Yes", "No", and (sometimes) "Not Sure", "no opinion" (or equivalent). The minute you start adding in "yes, because xxx" and "no, becuase yyy" you are forcing others to conform their opinions into yours. You cannot possibly list every possible incarnation of WHY someone answered yes or no, so don't even try. Leave it simple and let the votet inject their own reasons for voting the way they did through their comment.

3) Read your question and answers. Ask yourself this question? "Can EVERYONE choose at least one of my answers? Am I forcing people to vote for something they may not necessarily agree with? Are all options being covered?" If yes, then rework your question and/or answers. When in doubt remember that the more specific your answers are, the more they are likely to exclude people's opinions. Keep them generic and invite all your audience into the big tent. People want to vote in your poll -- let them vote without feeling like they have to choose "the option that is closest to how I feel, even though I don't agree with it completely."

4) If you don't think you are covering all possible answers groups with your pre-defined options, consider using a "other" option at the end. This allows people to vote and then further elaborate through commentary.

RECENT EXAMPLES:
Well constructed poll:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/17/637311/pick-your-poison-ptb-in-pl

The question is clearly phrased, and leads to a clear set of limited choices. The answers present ALL possible choices to the question being phrased, and leave the user to further expound on why they answered the way they did.

Poorly constructed poll:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/10/17/637196/batum-rookie-of-the-year

While the question is clearly phrased, this pollster committed the classic blunder of taking a yes or no question which 100% of voters could participate in, and injected qualifications on the answers such that he is now only presenting a very minor cross section of the total possible answers to the question. A very large segment of his voter base can not now vote their true opinion. They are left having to choose between not voting or voting for something they don't really agree with completely.

EDIT:

This post is not meant as an attack on hotstuff. I used his poll merely because it was the most recent example of a yes/no poll which qualified all the answers with the pollsters opinion. Hotstuff is surely not alone, as this practice runs rampant on BE.

Poll

Like Doug, Are you also irritated by polls on this site which you would like to vote in, but cannot, since none of the possible poll answers accurately reflect your opionion?

Yes

50 votes

No

9 votes

I'd rather just complain about Doug complaining about other pollsters

26 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

OT: Being Kevin Pritchard

douglast — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:26:35 -0000

Every think to yourself: "Hey, I should be a GM. I know talent, I know who to trade and who to keep. I can run a team. That KP guy has nothing on me!" Well, now your's chance to prove it!

The recent activity of forming not one, but two Blazer's Edge teams over on www.courtrivals.com has reawakened my passion for simulation sports. Court Rivals is a fun and relatively low-time commitment activity, but it's left me wanting more. I've flirted around a bit with designing and coding my own basketball management simulation, but that would be a long-term hobby/project for sure. In the meantime, I've found Draft Day Sports: Pro Basketball. This game does a very solid job of emulating the GM and Coaching aspects of professional basketball, complete with Drafting, free agency, salary caps, etc, etc. Check it out (there's a free demo) at www.wolverinestudios.com

So, if there is enough interest around the group here, I'd like to form up a BEdge Basketball League using this game. We can all get a small taste of what life is like for KP - making trades, hiring and firing coaches, managing free agency and the salary cap and guiding our team to the title. Owning the game won't be required to run a team, but it will make it a bit easier. We'll start out with picking our team locations, names, colors, etc, then proceed to a dispersal draft to kickoff the league, then roll right into season 1.

Post here if you have some preliminary interest in bringing out your inner GM. If there's enough interest, then I'll get roling on setting up the league and a website for it.

-Doug

Darius Miles gets 10-game suspension

douglast — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:32:29 -0000

95.5 just reported that Miles was just given a 10-game suspension for substance abuse. "Who cares," you say, "he's already gone." True, but if he would have played 10 games for anyone else over the next two seasons, we would be back on the hook for his salary on our cap.

If any team was going to take a flyer on him, the chances of that happening just dropped significantly. Good news to the '09 cap space.

The Joys of Ron Artest

douglast — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 23:28:38 -0000

June 30, 2008
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3468447
"Not opting out. The Kings have been there for me, so the best I could do is stay in my contract."

July 1, 2008
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3469895
"I don't see myself with [the] Kings beyond 2008-09. I think I made the biggest mistake by staying in my contract and I have to live with it,"

2008/09: Setting the Table

douglast — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 17:36:25 -0000

While it's still possible we could make another big move this summer, I don't see it happening. We've trimmed the roster to 13 players, not counting Koponen and Batum. Our 2008-09 opening roster is set. More importantly, I think our 09-10 and beyond 9-man rotation now looks like this:

Guards: Rudy, Roy, Bayless
Bigs: Oden, LMA, Joel, OPEN
SF: Outlaw or Martel, OPEN

That leaves 2 spots open in a 9-man rotation. We could have both of those guys on our current roster or we could have none. I think the first half of 2008-09 is about finding this out. We could have made some guesses about Martel and Outlaw now, but in the end we decided to take a bit more time to be sure. Let's take a look at the rest of the 08-09 roster and the guys who are competing for these spots in our championship rotation:

Small Forward:
Travis Outlaw: Travis needs to prove he can play primarily at the SF position. If he's going to stay with us long term, it's at that position. I think he also needs to prove he can fit in with our starting unit. If not, and Martel's not the answer either, than he may be the price we pay at the deadline or next summer to get a starter at the 3 spot. Odds on being on the opening 2009-10 roster: 80%
Martel Webster: I think Martel has about 30 games to prove he belongs in the long term plans. If he doesn't, then he'll be a guy we are shopping hard at the deadline. We don't want him taking up $11.4 million of cap space while he's shopping for a contract next summer. Odds: 35%

Bigs:
Channing Frye: If he shows the same type of game he did the last part of last season, and he's willing to be a career backup, then I think Channing is a safe bet for the 4th big spot. Working against him is his lack of inside game on both ends of the court, his contract situation, and the fact that he is LMA-lite rather than a changeup banger type. Like Martel, if he looks to be the odd man out, he's a trade deadline candidate. Odds: 50%
Ike Diogu: Unlike Channing, he is a changeup at the backup 4 spot. He plays down low on both ends, brings muscle, and isn't afraid to bang. Fairly replaceable skillset and role on this team, and he's in the same contract boat as Martel and Frye. Odds: 20%

Other Current Players:
Steve Blake: Ideal backup point guard for us. Can hit the spotup three. He's a guy you are not afraid to start and play more minutes if needed due to injuries. Has a team option at around 4.5 million for 2009-10. I think ultimately whether or not that option is picked up depends a lot more on what Sergio and Koponen do than what Blake does. We know what he brings to the table and it isn't going to change. Odds: 75%
Sergio Rodriguez: Sergio is at a crossroads. He either comes in this year with his buddy Rudy and proves he deserves some playing time, or he comes in pouting that we drafted another point and doesn't earn time. If it's the former, he could be an exciting change of pace on the 2nd unit, and could make Blake expendable. If it's the latter, then he's done. Odds: 20%
RLEC: He's either moved in a deadline deal, or expires. Odds: 0%

Overall Options:
More dealing this summer: We could still package some combination of Outlaw, Martel, Frye, and RLEC for a starting SF we really like. Conceivably, Bayless could be packaged for a veteran PG we really like as well. I think the first one will probably be explored, but not happen. I think we drafted Bayless because we want him, so I don't see that happening either.
Summer 2009: If we like any of Martel, Frye, and Diogu for our 9-man rotation, we match them or sign them ourselves. The others we could let walk if we want to preserve our immense cap space to make a big splash, either in free agency or through unbalanced (salary-wise) trades.
Trade Deadline Deal: I think this is our first choice. We can go into summer 2009 with the cap hold of any one of Frye, Martel, or Ike and STILL have around $15-$20 million in cap space. The holds of any 2 of them together though really kills most of our space. I think we take the first 30 games this year to figure out which one of the three we want to keep, and try to move the other two, either for a veteran guy we really like at the 3 or 4 or for younger guys who have more time left on their rookie deals. We could also package them with RLEC for a starter-quality player if we find someone we are really in love with.

Whichever way we go, we are sitting in the catbird's seat. We really can't lose at this point, no matter what we do. Any "frosting" yet to be had is going to be at the small forward position. If Martel and/or Outlaw aren't the guy, then bammo - we have all the tools to get the guy.

Assuming no major injuries, I predict 50-55 wins this year, 3rd to 5th in the west, and a 1st round win. We come back in 09-10 with our roster and rotation questions answered, a bit more experience, perhaps a new high-profile player, and we are ready to make a push for the 2010 title.

Collected Media Draft Grades

douglast — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:22:53 -0000

Chad Ford, ESPN: A-
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=DraftGrades-080627

Analysis: For the third straight year, the Blazers walk away with an "A" in the draft. Portland GM Kevin Pritchard continues to be the most daring, creative and active GM in the league. If I were to use a draft term to describe him, I'd say he's got an amazing motor.

The Blazers had a prearranged deal with the Pacers to move up to No. 11 if D.J. Augustin or Bayless were on the board. After the draft, Pritchard told me they had Bayless ranked fourth on their board -- so that's great value at No. 11. As part of the trade, they also picked up Ike Diogu, an undervalued big man who's been injured a lot.

Pritchard also bought the No. 27 pick from the Hornets and traded up late in the first round to get another player he wanted, Nicolas Batum.

In the second round, Pritchard turned three second-round picks into four future picks. That works because, given the roster crunch of the Blazers, they just didn't have any room for more players now.

Bayless is an upgrade over the guy the Blazers lost in the trade, Jarrett Jack. Bayless is a better athlete and a much better shooter. If he develops his point guard skills, he could be a Chauncey Billups-type of point guard.

I'm not as high on Batum. The guy Pritchard traded away, Darrell Arthur, will probably be a much better NBA player. But some scouts believe Batum has great upside, and the Blazers felt he was worth the risk.

Mike Kahn, Fox Sports: B
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8288054/Did-your-team-make-the-grade-in-NBA-draft?

This is the second year in a row general manager Kevin Pritchard has made five deals on draft day, with this year's version actually leaving them without any of the players they picked in the first place. Bayless isn't the pure point guard they were looking for, but he can really shoot from the perimeter and is a strong defender, which is big for their future. The hope is he'll earn minutes quickly. Batum, only 19, is likely to stay in France, Meanwhile, Pritchard also added four future second-round picks.

Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports: Winner
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=ArG.quQM_Eo3UJsh_C63.Xq8vLYF?slug=dw-nbadraftwinlose062708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

When your owner, Paul Allen, is willing to buy up other team’s draft picks it should be a good night. A year ago the Blazers were a big draft-night winner when they chose Greg Oden, a franchise center out of Ohio State, with the No. 1 pick overall. Then Oden’s knee got hurt and he was lost for the season.

A year later, the Trail Blazers weren’t expected to make things happen again, but after a respectable 41-win season and Oden set to return, the push for the playoffs starts now.

GM Kevin Pritchard pulled off a trade with Indiana that brought in Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless and bulky forward Ike Diogu in exchange for Kansas forward Brandon Rush and guard Jarrett Jack.

The Blazers’ decision to buy New Orleans’ pick at No. 27 for $3 million worked out when Kansas forward Darrell Arthur, a lottery pick level talent, dropped to them due to rumors about a possible kidney ailment.

With no room on the roster for Arthur, they were able to move him (along with second-rounder Joey Dorsey) to Houston for highly-regarded French forward Nicolas Batum, who will stay in Europe this year. Later they traded Omer Asik, a second-round selection out of Turkey, to the Bulls for three future second-round picks.

The Blazers got better, got more picks and foreign talent for the future and had a hand in all sorts of interesting moments of the draft (They traded all five players they originally drafted). Not a bad night.

Marty Burns, CnnSI: A-
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/marty_burns/06/27/grades/index.html?eref=T1

For the second year in a row, they made a dizzying array of moves. When the dust settled, they had a dynamic scorer in Bayless as well as a boatload of future picks.

Sam Smith, Sporting News: A
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=428492

They've had the ability the past two years to make bold moves to add talent. And they've done it again by dealing with the Pacers to get guard Jerryd Bayless, who could team nicely with Brandon Roy in a retro-style backcourt like the Celtics of the mid-1980's. Undervalued Ike Diogu, also acquired in the trade, could be a big surprise. Nicolas Batum, acquired through second-round dealings, is a good risk. He is talented, but sunk on questionable reports of heart irregularities.

Updated Blazers Roster & 2009 Salary Projections

douglast — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:59:18 -0000

Roster Locks:

PG Steve Blake
PG Jarryd Bayless
PG Sergio Rodriguez
SG Brandon Roy
SG Rudy Fernandez
SF Travis Outlaw
SF Martel Webster
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
PF Channing Frye
PF Ike Diogu
C Greg Oden
C Joel Pryzbilla
C Raef LaFrentz

Others we own the draft rights to:

Petteri Koponen (2007 #30)
Joel Freeland (2006 #30)
Nicolas Batum (2008 #25)

I think Petteri has a roster spot, unless he stinks up summer league. the last spot could be held open for in-season flexibility.

Summer 2009 Salary Projection:

Including an estimate for Bayless, our cap next summer is at ~$30 million, which includes the following contracts: Joel,Oden,LMA,Outlaw,Roy,Sergio,Bayless,Rudy (8 players). NOT included are

Blake option (~4.5 million)
Martel, Frye, and Diogu cap holds (11.3, 9.5, 8.7 respectively) or new contract amounts
Petteri Koponen (~1 million)

James Jones Out

douglast — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:34:39 -0000

95.5 just reported James did not exercise his option for 08/09. He is now an unrestricted free agent

I think this means he's gone. We would have liked him to stay one more year, see if his knee hold up, and then look at it again next summer.

Given our roster depth, the summer 2009 possibilities, and questions about his knee, I don't see us signing him to a multi-year contract.

The only scenario where we resign him is if we made a trade or trades that see us getting rid of Martel or Outlaw and not bringing back any other SFs in the draft or via trade. Even then, we could look to pick up another veteran FA rather than Jones.

This also helps P.Ko potentially nab a spot on the 15 man roster, assuming he earns it in summer league.

2009 Free Agency: Part Two

douglast — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 18:14:55 -0000

I've been doing a lot of research on our 2009 cap space potential and possible free agents. Part 1 (http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2008/4/2/135343/9060) focused on who will be free agents that summer. This is the 2nd diary in my multi-part series.

PART TWO: SALARY CAP 2009 BY THE NUMBERS

I've decided to break this down by categories, to make it easier for everyone to play around with the numbers. Obviously, this assumes no trades of or for players and/or picks that will be on the books for 09/10. We can explore those scenarios as we go.

The 2009-10 salary cap is estimated to be right around $60 million

Definately on the books:
-----------------------------
Joel Przybilla    $6,857,725
Greg Oden    $5,361,240
LaMarcus Aldridge $5,844,826
Travis Outlaw    $4,000,000
Brandon Roy    $3,910,816
Sergio Rodriguez $1,892,035*
-----------------------------
TOTAL: $27,866,642

* we could decide this summer not to pick up Sergio's 4th year option, but I find that highly unlikely

Pending Medical Retirement:
-----------------------------
Darius Miles $9,000,000

Team Options:
-----------------------------
Steve Blake $4,300,000

New Rookies
-----------------------------
Rudy Fernandez    $1,150,000
2008 #13    $1,950,000
2009 #20    $1,400,000

The "Class of 2005" (see below)
-------------------------------
Martell Webster
__Cap HOld Amt $11,313,399
_Resigned (est) $6,000,000
_Renounced $ 0
Channing Frye
_Cap Hold Amt $9,491,307
_Resigned (est) $6,000,000
_Renounced $ 0
Jarret Jack
_Cap Hold Amt $6,007,869
_Resigned (est) $4,000,000
__Renounced $ 0

-------------------------------------------------------

THE "CLASS OF 2005" OPTIONS

We have until October 31, 2008 to sign none, any, or all three of these guys to contract extensions. This has the disadvantage of tying up that much salary heading into summer 2009. However, as can be seen above, the amount we sign them to for 2009-10 (my guesses above) is likely to be much less than the cap hold amount will be to extend a qualifying offer instead.
For any of the three we don't extend this offseason, we must present them a qualifying offer by June 30, 2009 in order to retain the right to match any contract offers they may receive from other teams that summer. This will result in the "cap hold amounts" listed above being applied to our cap that summer, regardless of the offer amount.
Anyone we don't extend this summer or present a Qualifying Offer to prior to summer 2009 will immediately become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2009, free to sign with anyone without giving us the right to match or to obtain compensation.

Thus, in order to clear maximum room, we would have to NOT give these guys a qualifying offer. However, that means we lose them and get nothing back in return. If we want to clear some space AND protect assets, then we might be better off signing that player to an extension this summer. This is especially true with Martel, whose 2009 cap number we can cut by around 50% by resigning him.

-------------------------------------------------------

SALARY CAP SCENARIOS FOR 2009:

Darius included in Cap:
------------------------------
Pick up Blake, all rookies, all 2005 QO's: $72.5 million ($12.5 over)
Pick up Blake, all rookies, all 2005 resigned: $60.7 million ($0.7 over)
Pick up Blake, all rookies, Martel resigned, Jack/Frye renounced: $51.7 million ($8.3 under)
Drop Blake, All rookies, Martel resigned, Jack/Frye renounced: $47.4 million ($12.6 under)
Pick up Blake, All rookies, all 2005 renounced: $45.7 million ($14.3 under)
Drop Blake, all rookies, all 2005 renounced: $41.3 million ($18.7 under)

Darius not included in Cap:
------------------------------
Pick up Blake, all rookies, all 2005 QO's: $63.5 million ($3.5 over)
Pick up Blake, all rookies, all 2005 resigned: $51.7 million ($8.3 under)
Pick up Blake, all rookies, Martel resigned, Jack/Frye renounced: $42.7 million ($17.3 under)
Drop Blake, All rookies, Martel resigned, Jack/Frye renounced: $38.4 million ($21.6 under)
Pick up Blake, All rookies, all 2005 renounced: $36.7 million ($23.3 under)
Drop Blake, all rookies, all 2005 renounced: $32.4 million ($27.6 under)

Numerous other combinations are possible as well.

------------------------------

SUMMER 2008 TRADE OPTION

And here's the odd thing in all of this. Suppose we want to maximize our cap space in 2009 while at the same time NOT letting the 2005 guys walk for nothing? The best answer might be making a trade THIS summer. Let's look at a guy like Devin Harris for example. His 2009 cap number is going to be around $8.1 million. Maybe Calderon would be a similar number. If we could trade our 2008 pick, Martel, and Outlaw this summer (numbers work) for Harris, then we have the following 2009 cap numbers:

Darius, Steve, Rudy/09 pick, Channing extended, Jack Renounced: $52.8 million ($7.2 under)
No Darius, Steve, Rudy/09 pick, Channing QO'd: $48.3 million ($11.7 under)
NO Darius, Steve, Rudy/09 pick, Channing extended, Jack recnounced: $43.8 million ($16.2 under)
No darius, no steve, Rudy/09 pick, Frye/Jack QO'd: $50.0 million ($10.0 under)
NO Darius, no steve, Rudy/09 pick, Frye/Jack extended: $43.5 millino ($16.5 under)
No Darius, no steve, Rudy/09 pick, Frye/Jack renounced: $34.5 millino ($25.5 under)

You would have pretty similar numbers if the trade was Outlaw and Frye instead of Outlaw and Martel. Figure you could throw Jack into the mix as well for some filler back.

------------------------------

In summary, we have a LOT of flexibility right now to get substantially below the cap next summer, either with or without Darius counting against the cap. There are a lot of tradeoffs involved and decisions to be made.

I expect this picture to clarify a LOT this summer. The potential UFA and RFA pools will become much more clear, we will know a lot more about the cap numbers many of our own guys will have that summer (Darius, 2005 guys, Rudy, draft). Additionally, any trades we make this summer will clear up the situation substantially.

It's going to be an interesting summer. KP has a LOT of decisions to make. My guess is he makes a big push for a trade centered around our 2008 pick and some or all of our class of 2005 guys in exchange for an big upgrade at PG or SF. Failing that, I see us resigning Martel.