SB Nation User Blog: dprodigy19

An Idea: Cain for Prince and Sanchez for Phillips?

dprodigy19 — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 22:50:41 -0000

Hey fellas,

Long-time lurker, first-time thread starter.

My basic thought is this: The Giants have done a fantastic job in the last few years of drafting pitching, and now is actually a surprisingly good time to move some of that for hitting that has some long-term potential and fit.

In terms of direction, there are a few things worth considering:

1. Catcher is taken care of, whether it's Buster or Sandoval (Buster, in all likelyhood)

2. One of the middle IF slots can go to whichever of the pups works out best of Burriss, Velez, and maybe Fransden.

3. Like it or not, Rowand has an OF spot locked up.

4. We need to fit Sandoval and Villalona in the long-term plans for the team.

5. I like Fred Lewis as a player on this team long-term

To me, this opens up two nice potential slots: 2B/SS and 1B/3B.
Intuitively, it would be better for our Giants to get a SS, but they simply don't come onto the market that often. As such, we can hope that Manny works as the SS for the next few years and get a 2B with my favorite target (by far) being Brandon Phillips. He is the type of guy that would help generate runs in a variety of ways, which is incredibly helpful for a team like the Giants. Despite having an off year, he was still in the top third of 2B's offensively and had the third-most steals. It is also nice that he has played 140+ games each of the three years he has played at his current level.

With the Reds' current situation, some combination centering on Mr. Sanchez could probably get the job done, and I think it would be 100% worth it for Phillips.

The second major challenge is to finally get a true cleanup hitter. While it would be nice to see a young'n take the spot, those guys are just too hard to find and the team cannot afford to wait around or overpay horrifically in the FA market for one. Prince Fielder has his issues, but he would be an amazing fit for the center of the Giants' order. Much has been made about how it would be best for the Giants' key power guy to be right-handed, and I agree that it could help, but I have zero doubt that Prince could hit it out into the Cove. What's more, he would become an instant fan favorite and let him forge a new identity (plus, the Bay Area is a great place to raise his kids).

Losing Cain in this trade would hurt, but the benefit of solidifying the order with a long-term fan favorite and big producer who plays every day makes the trade completely worthwhile.

Here's how I see that team shaking out over the next few years:
Position Players
1. Fred Lewis, LF
2. Brandon Phillips, 2B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Angel Villalona, 3B
6. Aaron Rowand, CF
7. Nate Schierholtz, RF
8. Emmanuel Burriss, SS
Key bench guys: Pedro Sandoval (plays C for Posey, 1B for Prince, and 3B for Angel- lots of playing time), Connor Gillaspie, and Brandon Crawford (I love the kid)

Starting Rotation
The Franchise
Bridges of Madison Bumgarner
Tim Alderson
Zito
Henry Sosa (or one of the other pups)

Bullpen- Who knows by then, but there would be money to sink into it

As always, thoughts/criticisms/rants are greatly appreciated.

Accurate 2009 and 2010 Salary Estimations

dprodigy19 — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:11:58 -0000

There have been a great deal of posts about the 2009 and 2010 offseasons, so I figured as a salary cap guy, I'd post the actual #'s for players along with some background.

If a number looks wrong, call me out on it and I'll either explain it or correct it.

NOTE: I put most of the work in for the 2010 stuff (in response to another thread), so if you're looking for explanations, look down a little bit and it should be there.

2009:
Maggette: $9,288,000
Monta: $10,450,000
Beans: $9,900,000
SJax: $7,650,000
Al Harrington: $10,027,875
B-Wright: $2,671,440
Marco: $1,547,640
Randolph: $1,776,240
Hendrix (estimate):$736,420
2009 1st rounder (I used the #12 pick): $1,968,120
2009 2nd rounder: $457,588
Foyle: $600k
Kosta may have some $ due for 2009-2010, but I just don't know

That's $57,073,323 for 11 players, and of course does not include Turiaf/Dooling or anyone else signed this offseason for a multi-year contract.

The cap should be around $62m next season, so that leaves around $14,965,685 under the luxury tax (and about $4.9m under the cap, which is the relevant number since the Warriors have no big pending FA's and thus no Bird rights).

2010:
Maggette is probably getting $8.6 this year to make the contract work, so with 8% raises, he’d be at $10,031,040.

Monta’s probably going to start at around $9.5m (5 years, $58m) with 10% raises. In the third year of that contract (2010-2011), he’d be making $11,495,000. It could be higher, of course.

Beans will probably be around 5 years, $54.9m, which would place his 2010-2011 salary at $10,890,000.

As such, those three combine to make $32,416,040.

Then we have the draft picks (slotted, and when not available, I used the value of the rookie contract from the same draft slot the year before):
Brandan Wright: $3,398,071
Marco Belinelli: $2,380,270
Anthony Randolph: $1,900,200
Richard Hendrix: Restricted Free Agent (typically sign a 2 year deal)
2009 1st rounder (I used the #12 pick): $1,968,120
2009 2nd rounder: $736,420
2010 1st rounder (I used the #14 pick): $1,660,367
2010 2nd rounder: $457,588

That’s $12,557,028 for draft picks.
Total, we’re at $44,917,076.

That doesn’t include a re-signed Hendrix or ANY players signed for that year (including Turiaf, who’d be around $3.8 if it’s frontloaded).

So basically, the Dubs would be at $45 mill with Monta, Beans, Maggette, the Slims, Marco, and the future draft picks.

Beyond that, it’s too much speculation, but keep in mind that there are still at least 5 roster spots to fill with those guys under contract.

Any rec's are greatly appreciated- just trying to spread the actual info instead of speculation.

Where the Warriors should go from here

dprodigy19 — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:50:34 -0000

Hey guys,

It's been a tough few days, but honestly this short-term pain and frustration can be turned into long-term success. First of all, the Warriors were not going to be title contenders in the short term, and the likely best that they could do considering the %!*@%@^ owner is a team in that vicious 2nd/3rd tier or Western Conference teams, which is now even more brutal.

As such, it's time to lick our wounds and make a smart battle plan for how to best come at this strong for the future. Here's how I'd do it:

Rule 1: Do not waste the money (see Fisher, Derek)

That said, what makes the most sense to me for this offseason is to make two front-loaded deals, which uses the available space now, makes teams less likely to match (though one of the two is a UFA), and opens up more money in the future:

1. Andre Iguodala- A very good player who is a natural fit next to Monta and also allows the Warriors to go after either a PG or SF long term since Monta/Iggy can be a SG/SF group (my preference) or a PG/SG duo. Something like 5 years, $65m frontloaded (so 15/14/13/12/11). You can frontload, though I do not know whether the max decreases are 5% or 10% per year (that offer relies on 10%).

2. Shaun Livingston. A real boom/bust guy who ideally would be a nasty, nasty backcourt mate with Monta. He has size, vision, and horrible injury problems. 3 years frontloaded totalling around $13m ($4.4/4.3/4.2 works), and it would be fantastic to have a 4th year team option on the end of that as a protection in case he works out really well.

Other than those two (and possibly Josh Smith or Okafor, though I assume both would be matched), it'd be better not to waste cap space this offseason long-term and either move it to next summer and try to slide Al/Jax (or both) for space in the 2009 offseason or just wait them out and spend in 2010 (Bosh!)

Theoretically, that team (with Monta/Beans getting $21m base combined with 10% raises) wouldn't have cap space for 2009 without getting Jackson and Harrington off (but would be luxury-tax safe at around $64m, considering cap increases).

Then, these would be their cap commitments going into the summer of 2010:
Monta/Beans: $25.41m
Iggy/Livingston: $17.2m
B-Wright and Marco: $5,778,341
Draftees (Randolph, Hendrix, 2009 1st- I used the #10 pick for a base), 2009 2nd, 2010 1st (I used #12 pick), and 2010 2nd: $8,000,980

That totals $56,389,321, which will be reasonable considering the cap increases for two more offseasons (2010 cap will be at $64.6m if $3m increases per year, which would be average).

So that team would have 12 players on roster (assuming all the picks work out) and a little less that $10m to work with, so it could be spent on one guy, or someone like Wright and/or Marco could be used in a S+T if necessary to get a stud like Bosh.

As always, thoughtful comments/criticisms are appreciated.

A possible Warriors trade (my idea)

dprodigy19 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 02:04:00 -0000

I'll explain the rationale for each team afterwards, but I'll post the trade first:

RealGM Trade ID #4682114

Warriors trade:
Baron
SJax
Al Harrington

Warriors receive:
Sheed
Odom
Ariza
Mihm

Why for the Warriors: move the bad contracts (and the potential bad contract for Baron), get back expiring players who make a ton of sense in the system.

Lakers trade:
Odom
Ariza
Mihm
Future pick

Lakers receive:
Chauncey
Steven Jackson
Amir Johnson

Why for the Lakers: They get a prototypical PG for the Triangle in Billups, a compelling (and clutch) SF in Jackson who is a killer on a top-level team, and a utility big in Amir.

Detroit trades:
Billups
Sheed
Amir Johnson

Detroit receives:
Baron
Al Harrington
LAL future pick

Why for the Pistons: They get younger and the guard rotation of Baron/Rip/Stuckey would destroy humanity.

Back to the Warriors:
2008/2009 Warriors:
PG: ??? (Shaun Livingston?) / CJ Watson
SG: Monta / CDR (1st rounder) / Marco Polo
SF: Odom / Ariza / CDR
PF: Sheed / Wright / [Filler]
C: Beans / Sheed / Wright / Hardin (2nd rounder)

2009/2010 Warriors:
PG: ??? / ????
SG: Monta / CDR / Marco
SF: CDR / ????
PF: Wright (Sheed?) /
C: Beans / Wright / Hardin

That team with the ability to sign or S+T Odom, Ariza, and Sheed, coupled with picks. Oh, and they'd have $30 million in cap room.

Framework of a Franchise

dprodigy19 — Sun, 18 May 2008 01:00:37 -0000

Hey guys,
I write for a blog (Vegan Fish Tacos) and have been working on a feature called "Framework of a Franchise" where I go through a team and talk about what they have and where they should go to maximize their roster. Finally got around to doing my hometown Warriors, and figured I'd post it here. I don't want to whore out our blog, but I'll link to the post below and at the bottom, because the formatting is nicer and it would help the blog out alot if you Digg/Reddit/Ballhype/whatnot it should you like it, and those links will stay on the site (of course). Put your mittens on your kittens and away we go!
Here's the link to it on the site (Vegan Fish Tacos)

Where the are now: The Warriors have one of the most compelling collections of prospects in the entire league, especially when combined with Don Nelson and his notorious knack for experimenting. The team has a sort of veteran core with Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, and Al Harrington along with a young group headed by Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, and Brandon Wright. Also of note is that almost the entire roster is up for free agency this offseason, which makes them a fascinating team to examine. They have been on the fringes of the playoffs the last two years (once in and once out), but the growing improvement and talent of the Western Conference could prove to be the most daunting part for the boys in Oakland. The other major factors for the Warriors is their owner: Chris Cohan appears to be closer to the Rod Sarver group of owners, so there will not be much time spent in this space talking about the possibility of the Warriors going full-bore and paying the luxury tax. If only Larry Ellison could buy the team…

The Timetable of Contention: In effect, the personnel of the Warriors lends itself to two different (and largely distinct) timetables. One is the immediate possibility, where the Dubs probably have about three seasons to peak and perform before Jackson and Baron lose effectiveness, and that could get cut quickly if Baron succumbs to injury like he has in the past. The other timetable, which is the one I’ll use for this, builds around the younger guys. That team would be most ready to compete in about 2 years (which coincides with Jackson and Harrington coming off the cap), so the timing would be from 2010-2011 until around 2014. What makes the Warriors so special is that their young guys are incredibly young for their experience, with both Beans and Monta possessing three years of experience and being just 22 years old.

How to utilize the Timetable: The first major concern for this plan is understanding the confines of the Cohan era. As stated, it is incredibly unlikely that he would pay the luxury tax, so an operating assumption of a $5m margin underneath that level is the absolute maximum when devising a plan. Working with a more long-term goal in mind has a few key costs and a few benefits for Golden State. The costs are that a few of the pieces that are already in place lose a great deal of value, but they are still movable. First and foremost is Baron Davis. I love Baron as much as most Warriors fans, but the salary he is looking for simply is not feasible with the Warriors’ cap structure. Luckily, he still holds value to many teams in the league since he is a fantastic player who would be perfect in the right scheme. Amazingly, there is a perfect fit laying around in the LA Clippers. With the Lakers’ return to prominence, the Clippers using some of their cap space (and some talent) to make a major splash with an LA guy with definite wattage could do wonders for both squads. The best scenario for both teams is to swap first round picks and move the enigmatic Shaun Livingston to GSW for Baron. This serves a few purposes, as it allows the Clippers to retain some of their cap space to make another move (either getting a good bench player or a back-up C) and gives the Warriors some talent coming back, along with maintaining some cap flexibility.

The next step is signing both Biedrins and Monta. What makes them so important for the long-term is that they have the capability of playing within Nellieball or moving to a more conventional system, which may be necessitated when Nelson retires (probably after this season). Biedrins also solidifies the Warriors at the Center spot, which is exceptionally important in a West that will have Greg Oden, Amare, and Al Jefferson for the foreseeable future. Interestingly, the market has been somewhat set for both players in the past few months when Jefferson signed his extension with a starting salary of $11m and Kevin Martin’s starts at $9.2m. It seems reasonable to put the combined pay for the pups at $20m for next season, however it shakes out (my guess: Beans at $10.5 and Monta at $9.5).

After that, the goal is to work around that timetable to build the best possible team. What becomes pivotal are the 2009 and 2010 offseasons, because the Warriors would have cap space thanks to the youngn’s being set under long-term contracts and the older guys expiring. Mullin could either just wait out Jackson and Harrington expiring after the 2009-2010 season or try to be pro-active and move them for contracts that would expire next offseason. Both strategies are sound, but what makes the most sense to me is to try and move Al Harrington to a team like the Knicks for one of their expiring contracts (probably Malik Rose) and a pick/prospect like Balkman or the right to swap firsts next year (within a range, of course). This allows the Warriors to spend more time playing the younger big men and Harrington’s slightly longer contract is no problem for Dolan and Co, with adding Harrington being a major plus for D’Antoni’s system. Jackson is a harder situation because his history makes the market a little more sour for him, but he could be moved if necessary.

As for the draft, there is one player who is a scary-good fit in Don Nelson’s system, and it’s not someone that comes to mind quickly. Kevin Love has one of the most advanced skillsets for a player coming into the league in my lifetime, and there is no coach better suited to utilize it than Nelson. He is slower than most, but he has a great sense of his body, and his outlet passing when coupled with his underrated rebounding makes him the perfect player to ignite the Warriors’ break. Against some teams, Nellie could even just send Monta on the shot so he could be ready for a full-court rocket and an easy bucket whether that shot goes in or out. Additionally, the combination of Love, Wright, and Biedrins could play in every permutation and could dominate the minutes for the PF/C positions in the long-term, eliminating a major hole.

Naturally, trading Baron makes the PG a strong need, but Mullin would need to be wary of the Alex Smith Rule: When you have a position of clear need and a high level of performance is required at that spot for team success, do not reach on a player who is not an optimal fit. It is far better to wait and get the right player, because the wrong guy would take minutes and lower the potential of taking a better player down the line (draft, free agency, or trade). Derrick Rose would be fantastic, but is not a rational possibility, so waiting on someone to come down the pike is far better than putting a square peg in. The second round player could be either a developmental wingman like Kyle Weaver/Jamont Gordon or a contributor big like the criminally underrated Maarty Leunen.

A team built around that core would have approximately $38m committed to the 2009-2010 cap (including Jackson and every pick in 2008 and 2009). That would be enough to make a substantial offer to a player in that class or just hold on to the money for the following year. One particularly fascinating option would be Rudy Gay, who is a restricted free agent next year (or unrestricted the following year) and will likely be looking to leave Memphis if they’re not competitive for a team with the right money and situation. (Plus, his jersey would sell like gangbusters in the Bay Area.) We can assume that most of the other young guys in those classes are going to stick with their teams, but the offers could be enticing.

In Short:
2008 offseason
1. Sign and trade Baron Davis to the LA Clippers along with the Warriors 1st for the Clippers first and Shaun Livingston (3 years at $4.8m base)
2. Re-sign Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins
3. Draft Kevin Love (1st round) and Maarty Leunen (2nd round) in the 2008 NBA Draft
4. Trade Al Harrington to the New York Knicks for Malik Rose and the right to swap first round picks
5. [EDIT] Sign a back-up SF to a 1 year deal
6. Sign and trade Mickael Pietrus if possible (but I’m assuming he just signs somewhere else).
7. Re-Sign CJ Watson and/or Patrick O’Bryant if the price is right

2009 Off-Season
1. Draft Jrue Holliday (1st Round) and Jeremy Pargo (2nd Round) in the 2009 NBA Draft
2. Sign Trevor Ariza for 3 years @ $3.5m base
3. Try to sign Kelenna Azubuike if possible

2010 Off-Season
1. Sign Rudy Gay
2. Draft Nihad Milutinovic in the 2010 NBA Draft

Your 2010-2011 Golden State Warriors:
PG: Jrue Holliday / Shaun Livingston / Jeremy Pargo
SG: Monta Ellis / Marco Belinelli / Jrue Holliday
SF: Rudy Gay / Trevor Ariza / Josh Carter
PF: Kevin Love / Brandon Wright / Trevor Ariza
C: Andris Biedrins / Brandon Wright / Maarty Leunen

As always, comments/diatribes/questions are much appreciated, either in this space or on the post on the blog itself. Thanks for reading this far...
The site

Poll

Which would you prefer?

A superstitution question

dprodigy19 — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 18:54:17 -0000

I'm sorry for posting this seperately than the other thread, but I need some new eyes on the question than will see it buried deep in the other thread, especially considering the time constraint.

Basically, the situation is as follows:
I have a personalized Farmar jersey, UCLA shorts, and special shoes that I have worn to every UCLA game I've attended since his freshman year, including both Final Fours. Since I graduated in 2007, I have only attended the ASU, Zona, Stanford, and Cal games with this attire (note the outcomes in those games...)

Furthermore, I cannot wash the jersey, as it is signed by both Farmar and Coach Wooden and those signatures are already fading. I know some people consider this important, so it's worth mentioning.

Given the history both in-season and in previous Final Fours, what is the prudent course?

Poll

What should I do?

James Keefe redshirting

dprodigy19 — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 00:05:19 -0000

Reported by both Mr. Dohn and the BRO fellas.

It'll be interesting to see if it's more injury related than playing time related (here's hoping it's a PT issue), and Coach Howland can always remove James' redshirt if need be later on down the line.

At its best, this could be a great way for Keefe to bridge the gap between classes that we'll see in the next few years and be a part of the 2010-2011 squad should he want to be, which would help our depth dramatically at that point. He has a ton of potential to play the 4 spot, and it could give him 2 years as the starter after Luc's senior year (should Luc stay, and I expect him to).

At its worst, Keefe's redshirt gets removed later in the current season because of some injuries and we have him in Westwood for the same length of time we expected when he committed. Naturally, it would be a distinct negative if the injury was more serious than expected, but I sincerely doubt that given that he was already practicing with the team and I thought I had heard that he was doing well.

Anyway, here's the Dohn link for all y'all: http://www.insidesocal.com/ucla/2007/12/keefe_to_redshirt.html

Shaun Livingston?

dprodigy19 — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 17:58:57 -0000

It's abundantly clear that the Warriors need a back-up PG and ideally someone who they can develop into the starter long-term (especially if Monta stays on the team and becomes a SG like I think he should be). Naturally, the best place to look would be the draft. I think that Darren Collison, DJ Augustin, and Ty Lawson would be fantastic options for the Dubs should they be available at that time. However, there is a distinct chance that none of them will be on the board (drafted or stay in school).

What I'm thinking is that taking a flier on Shaun Livingston would be a fascinating option for this. Yes the guy is starcrossed like no one's business, but the fact remains that he has amazing size and court vision for his position. What's more, he'd provide a compelling back-court foil to both Monta and Baron, bringing a size and skill that could complement both of them.

Of course there is a risk involved with a guy like him, but the Warriors also have the benefit of having Bird Rights on the multitude of FA's on the slate this year, so fitting in a guy like Livvy would be possible, even without going into Lux Tax range.

Another possibility is that if Nellie takes a stronger liking to any of the young guys (POB, BWright, Marco), it would lessen the need to have Pietrus around, so Mullin could trade him to the Clippers for Livingston at the deadline, essentially working in a 2 month or so tryout.

Thoughts/Comments/Flames appreciated.

Dohn reports UCLA won't pursue Leach

dprodigy19 — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 06:56:39 -0000

http://www2.presstelegram.com/moresports/ci_7646248

Bruins won't pursue Leach as coach
By Brian Dohn, Staff Writer
Article Launched: 12/05/2007 10:20:45 PM PST

LOS ANGELES - UCLA is still in the exploratory phase of its football coaching search, but when the short list is compiled, Texas Tech coach Mike Leach is not expected to be on it, sources said Wednesday.

Leach built the Red Raiders into an offensive force with his spread formations and affinity for throwing the ball. He is interested in the job, sources said, but UCLA is not reciprocating such interest.

Leach has a reputation as being quirky, and outspoken, and that may not sit well at UCLA, sources said. Also, sources said Leach, who is scheduled to make $1.85 million next season and $2.15 million in 2010, is not salary driven and would come to Westwood for under market value. But finances could still be an issue with hiring Karl Dorrell's replacement. Dorrell made $600,000 annually when he was hired, and was guaranteed $850,000 this season.

Although UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero said increased revenue in the athletic department should make it possible for the school to be competitive when it comes to salaries, sources said UCLA doesn't appear willing to spend more than $2 million per season.

Meanwhile, Guerrero moved closer to hiring a search firm to aid in the task of doing background checks and gauging the interest level of potential candidates. According to sources, there is still no official list of candidates, and there will not be one until after a search firm is hired.

Honestly, it feels like I got kicked in the groin- he'd come to UCLA for UNDER MARKET VALUE and won't be considered?

Bronco Mendenhall

dprodigy19 — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 08:37:58 -0000

I've been looking over his resume and it's impressive to say the least. He has done a great job at BYU and sure seems to embrace the challenges of that institution (as UCLA would bring its own). Also, he has been extremely impressive working with the history and people of BYU which would definitely be a plus at a school like ours. Furthermore, he has a Pac-10 background as an Oregon State alum and coaching experience there previously. In many ways, he combines the experience that so many of us want with the youth and enthusiasm that others are clamoring for in a way that makes me wonder why he is getting ignored instead of guys like Mike Leach, who is interesting but has not won anything significant at Texas Tech (though if he could bring Crabtree with him, I'd throw a big party).

What I'm wondering is what you fine people think of him and whether or not we could get him.

For me, he'd be an amazing long-term option as he's only 41 and has coaching experience and success.

Naturally, someone like Steve Spurrier would work too (he's my favorite candidate, though Bronco is a close second), but who knows if DG could give the Ole Ballcoach the sales pitch he's looking for, especially if the LSU job opens up.