SB Nation User Blog: dr WNC

Focus, Forget the Past and be careful

dr WNC — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 01:04:29 -0000

The Redskins need to focus on winning games and making the playoffs.

A Washington Redskins team whose 6-3 should have a 75% chance of making the playoffs, a game ahead of the 3rd and 4th place teams in the division both which were wins during the first half....The past is aligned, but time to Focus on the future.

Over at the always cheerful Redskin insider By Jason La Canfora it is noted the unique situation which is occuring as far as playoff spots in the NFL.

There are seven teams in the NFL at 6-3 - a quarter of the league (with Arizona joining the group should it defeat hapless San Fran tonight - and seven other clubs have five wins (excluding the Cards, who we will lump in with seven-win teams).

That's half the league, folks. Only three teams in the league have more than six wins - Carolina, the Giants and Tennessee. With the NFC East teams beating one another up, you have to think the NFC South is going to send at least one wild card team (Carolina is 7-2, while Tampa and Atlanta are 6-3; the Falcons' schedule sets up well, and Tampa's isn't that difficult on paper, either).

While I don't agree with the NFC south "obvious" The Redskins need to take care of the home turf to lock-up the number 2 spot in the NFC east. If the Redskins can go 3-0 at home against Dallas, Giants and Eagles then a playoff spot should be at hand, as long as the NFC east players continue to win outside the Division. A key aspect of playing in the toughest division is to win those games to allow the rest to take care of itself. That an easy statement, but will be a huge challenge.

With week 9 in the bag except for the (yawn) game tonight, What have the teams done lately to help the Skins make the playoffs.

1. Giants 36- Eagles 31: Giants placed themselves in perfect position to win the NFC east and place the Redskins as a solid second. The Giants could be coasting by the time the Redskins meet them again in week 13 but that coasting could hurt the Redskins in week 14-17 by providing wins to some Wild card candidates.

2.Atlanta 34 and New Orleans 20, NO did the Redskins no favor and the upstart Atlanta needs to stop taking significant strides forward. The remaining games for Atlanta are tough divisional games and some tough non-division games where all teams are looking for Wins. They could go 9-7 or 10-6 but anymore would be a stretch for a young team, it still highlights why the Redskins need to focus as the other divisions have teams with inflated records which will be pushing for a playoff spot.

3. Tenn 24 and Chicago 20, Tennessee keep's winning and the wins help the Redskins as the NFC north will be lucky to place the divisional winner into the playoffs but will not threaten for a wild card.

4.Baltimore 41 and Houston 13, This game really had no meaning for the Redskins other than they have to play Baltimore, a team with a good defense and an offense which is starting to play well, no longer a "gimme" game.

5. Miami 21 and Seattle 20, again no impact other than Seattle continue to find ways to lose, and while a tough game for the Redskins at Seattle home, enough fans may cheer for Washington that Seattle may have to go to a silent count.

6. Minn 28 and Green bay 27, the NFC north loses to teams outside the division and splits games amoung themselves, again will be lucky one team has a lock on the playoffs, question is who it will be and will anyone other than those team fans care.

7. Carolina 17 and Oakland 6, Carolina tried to lose this game but Oakland is that bad, It's a good thing and hopefully Carolina has gotten a very bad game out of it's system so it can beat the NFC south players and win division. Every win against the NFC south teams is a good win for the Redskins.

8. Tonights game, somebody in the NFC west has to win the divsion, the other teams do not matter.

Yeah, other games occured this week but few had any impact on the Redskins and them making the playoffs. The Redskins are in good shape but need to remain focused on winning or a playoff could easily slip from their hands.

This idea came to me during my readings, it seems someone great was doing a format similar to this which I thought was pretty cool and much better written than I have attempted...If I could only remember who and give them credits....BEAT DALLAS.

Actions are louder

dr WNC — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 12:25:10 -0000

A fantasy footbal team no more: A business and gaining respect.

We hear constantly that the NFL today is a business as decisions are made to move players and players try to get maximum value for their skills. As a business the objective of each team should be to build a winning team and ultimatley win the Superbowl. This is today's NFL, and how each owner performs directly reflects the product which is on the field. Over the last 10 years or so the Washington Redskins while trying to win did not operate the team as business but as a Fantasy Football team.

Daniel Snyder in all of his efforts to field a winner, tried to build a winner by assembling a fantasy football team. A team which became a joke to many, where high priced players did not perform and subsequently the team did not perform and the fans were left with a poor to weak product, a losing business product. Give Mr. Snyder credit he did (finally)recognize it was not working. He convinced one of the Redskins legendary coaches to come out of retirement, built an excessive coaching staff to restore the business and develop a team. This required a long 4 years but appears to be culmanating this year with a foundation for years to come.

Starting with keeping Draft picks in order to develop and find players to be Redskins of the future, to hold on to a core group which will be Redskins for life while adding key additions who want to play for the Redskins as a year in and year out winner.

The Hall signing on Saturday provided the "Actions"; agree or disagree with the signing in a business sense it was a good move and handled properly as pointed out by HomerMcFanboy

But here’s the biggest reason ‘Skins fans should like this move - it shows the Redskins front office is getting smarter. Just a season or two ago, management would have jumped at the chance to acquire a Pro Bowl player like Hall in his prime. If multiple draft picks were used to acquire wide receiver/malcontent Brandon Lloyd or rental running back T.J. Duckett, it’s scary to think how many picks Hall would have been worth in their eyes. And once here, without ever having played a down in D.C., Hall would have a signed (at a minimum) the same five-year, $25-million contract that was standard with players like Lloyd and safety/bust Adam Archuleta. This time around, management locked him in for roughly half a million bucks. And the best part is, if internet reports are true, ownership spoke with defensive captains London Fletcher and Cornelius Griffin prior to making the move. This is a veteran team with great locker room leadership.

Over at NFL.com, where the Hall signing was first reported, Adam Schefter provides some insider information

Hall heard from Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, each of whom tried to persuade the former Raiders cornerback to sign with his respective team.

(Random question: If Hall was such a bad influence, why did two of the most respected defensive-minded head coaches in the game pursue him the way they did?)

Ultimately, the Redskins offered something no other team could: the chance to play in his backyard.

Players having to earn a spot on the Redskins, players earning the pay, a team with a veteran core group and a front office which appears to finally understand.

A succesful business model and a Winning Team, Go Redskins.

Hall is a Redskin

dr WNC — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:22:33 -0000

Hall is a Redskin

It's official on the NFL.com, do not know if it's on the team page or not

What is done is done, now, Moving Forward

dr WNC — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:10:11 -0000

The Redskins, in my opinion, have one of the best slots for the "bye-week"

The Redskins have reached the slighlty over Mid-Season "bye week" at 6-3 in second place for the NFC east. The first 9 games showed a mixed team winning tough divisional games, losing to a winless team, having trouble scoring, running the ball as good if not better than any team, mostly controlling the time of possession and building a team character which a fan enjoy rooting for week in and week out.

What has been accomplished in the big picture with a 6 & 3 record is good, and overall per TexSkins post, (some omissions for clarification here)

OVERALL: Wins at Dallas, at Philly and at home for New Orleans are good. Losing at the Giants is long forgotten, and the Rams game appears to be an aberration. This stretch of schedule featured some of the easier games the team had all season, but like the old saying goes: you can only beat those teams on your schedule.

Grade: B+

Those games are done, no changing the outcome and the record stands. It's time for the Redskins to improve the execution of the passing offense, learn from the past, REST and regroup. The team needs to be the veteran club it is with a first time head coach and focus on making the playoffs.

The NFL Victory Trend Index from Pro Football Prospectus 2008 Teams that started 6-3 averaged 10.0 wins and made the playoffs 74.2 percent of the time; Provided those odds at the beginning of the season would have been great, given those odds now are promising but it shows 25% of the time teams do not take care of remaining games, the Redskins need to play well the remaining 7 games.

The ALL important three games remaining within the Division: Dallas, Eagles and Giants. I think it's important that the Redskins win 2 of the 3 games to almost ensure a play-off spot in the NFC. I don't think 8 games will make the playoffs but to be up on tie-breakers within your own division is the first place to start when thinking Wild Card. The Giants are in control of their own destiny as far as winning the division, the Redskins want to remain the #2 team in the division and winning 2 of 3 places them in that position. The week 16 game against the Eagles could be a game of significance!

The remaining 4 games are against 2 NFC teams, 2 AFC teams. Teams which on "Any given Sunday" can beat the Redskins. A teams which is on the move up and playing well, Baltimore. Teams which have lost focus but could be troublesome depending on the Sunday, Cincinnati and and San Fransico. A team which has lost motivation, is struggling due to injury but plays in one of the toughest places in the NFL, seattle. The Redskins need to break no less than the 2 and 2 on these games with an expectation of achieving 3 and 1 based on how the games should happen using a paper analysis. This should ensure a play-off position.

After the Bye-Week, the Redskins working a 5-2 record to finish 11-5 would exceed the start of season expectations and time to begin the post season march! A team still struggling on offense to score consistently but getting the job done with a 4-3 record to finish 10-6 and most likely make the playoffs.

A team which collapses like so many Redskin's teams in the past during Daniel Snyder's reign appears to be a thing of the past and is done under the NEW coaching staff, let Move forward as fans to Cheer The Redskins to Victory during the second half of the season! HTTR

Here is the NFL Victory Trend Index from Pro Football Prospectus 2008 through Week 9 (data includes...

dr WNC — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:28:18 -0000

Here is the NFL Victory Trend Index from Pro Football Prospectus 2008 through Week 9 (data includes games since the 17-week format began in 1990, excluding the 18-week 1993 season):

Through nine games, 1.5 percent of the teams were 9-0; 4.6 percent were 8-1; 11.4 percent were 7-2; 12.8 percent were 6-3; 19.1 percent 5-4; 18.2 percent were 4-5; 16.2 percent were 3-6; 9.7 percent were 2-7; 4.8 percent were 1-8; and 1.2 percent were 0-9.

Teams that started 9-0 finished the season averaging 13.8 wins; 8-1 averaged 12.9 wins; 7-2 averaged 11.3 wins; 6-3 averaged 10.0 wins; 5-4 averaged 8.9 wins; 4-5 averaged 7.0 wins; 3-6 averaged 6.1 wins; 2-7 averaged 4.6 wins; 1-8 averaged 3.1 wins; and 0-9 averaged 1.7 percent.

Teams starting the season 9-0 and 8-1 made the playoffs every time; 7-2 made the playoffs 91.5 percent of the time; 6-3 made the playoffs 74.2 percent of the time; 5-4 made the playoffs 54.5 percent of the time; 4-5 made the playoffs 10.6 percent of the time; 3-6 made the playoffs 3.6 percent of the time; no teams starting 2-7, 1-8 or 0-9 made the playoffs.

Portis is Ground Player of the week, which supports his quarterback, which supports Washington...

dr WNC — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 19:27:14 -0000

Portis is Ground Player of the week, which supports his quarterback, which supports Washington Safety programs

Fans voted for more than their favorite players. The weekly FedEx Air & Ground NFL Players of the Week Awards are also a win for local communities. Along with the player awards, FedEx is making a $1,000 donation in the winning players’ names to the local Safe Kids USA coalitions in Buffalo and Washington to support pedestrian safety efforts. Safe Kids USA is a national non-profit organization that works to prevent accidental injury among children. This season, FedEx plans to surpass the $1 million mark in terms of charity donations they have made to deliver safe kids through the FedEx Air & Ground NFL Player of the Week Awards program.

Roster moves

dr WNC — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 01:25:04 -0000

Open space on the practice squad

The key was found in the comments on the Post sight, check it out and it's listed on the Bengals team page

The Bengals on Tuesday made the following roster moves:

Crummey

Signed guard Andrew Crummey from the Washington Redskins practice squad. Crummey (6-5, 301; Maryland) is a rookie, signed by Washington last May 7 as a college free agent. He played in all four Redskins preseason games, was waived on Aug. 30, and was signed Sept. 1 to the Redskins practice squad. Crummey will wear uniform No. 60

Redskins have lost a player off of the practice squad which is too bad as I thought Crummey had a chance to build his skills on the practice squad to help the offensive line in the future, best of luck to him. Will the redskins add a player?

TORB

dr WNC — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 22:15:45 -0000

TORB

It's official, update the Roster information
Ryan Plackemeier is #1
Michael Green is #23
Shaun Alexander is #35

Gut Check captures my view

dr WNC — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:22:07 -0000

Ok, it's been awhile since a Link to The Om Field has been posted, but the man can write and captures most fans feelings.

Once again as I read through the various "blogs" on the day after my sentiment is best captured when reading The Om Field.

A well rounded bunch of quick hits taken from his lap top during the game:

• offensive line can’t get started. Doesn’t matter if against 4 down linemen of pass pro, or trying to open running lanes for Portis/Betts, Skins OL looks sluggish, like they’ve left too much of themselves on the field the past 4 weeks.

• simply godawful punting.

• dropped INT’s could be story of game.

• false starts - tired legs? concentration?

• fluke TD on Kendall fumble; if Skins lose this will be play of game. Shit happens.

Key points and thoughts captured as he read the message boards:

• I'll be honest ... today was about a team unable to sustain the intensity it had for four straight weeks. The OL was sluggish and a step slow all day and the Rams took advantage of it. Give them credit. Throw in a fluke TD against and two dropped gift INT's that were potential game-changers, and that was enough.

Those looking for signs of the apocalypse will see this as the team getting exposed as a fraud.

Those willing to wait a week or two before doing that can look at this one and understand why it could have happened, and maybe even take a little solace in the fact the team kept slugging until the end, and but for a clutch 49-yarder against them at the end, would have stolen a win in a game they played about as poorly on one side of the ball as a good team can.

• Way I see it, the Skins paid the price today for leaving it all on the field the last four weeks. It was inevitable they'd have a flat game at some point. It showed glaringly in the play of the OL, who seemed a step slow and sluggish all day.

Yet even while playing uninspired offensive football, having a fluke TD against totally change the complexion of the game, dropping two potential game-changing gift INT's, getting concentration-lapse penalties that killed drives and generally just having everything to wrong a team possible can, they still led with 2 seconds to go and a 49-yard FG attempt facing the opponent.

Creative and personal point:

Way I see it, the only thing we really learned yesterday is that the 2008 Redskins are not quite good enough yet to overcome multiple turnovers and lost opportunities (three coughed up plus two dropped INT’s), anywhere from 10-20 in point-swing as a direct result, and an inconsistent, sometimes tired looking offense, and still win.

and getting down to the point, the game is over it's time to move forward with a focus on the Browns, who with any luck will roll over the Giants tonight.

If the Redskins are the solid, up and coming team I still believe they are, they will come out with bad intentions next week, take care of business against the visiting Cleveland Browns and yesterday will become just a pothole in the rear view mirror.

If they are not that team, and largely beat themselves again against a lesser opponent … well, let’s cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

Coach said “stay medium.” That applies even more after self-inflicted losses than it does transformative wins.

Say's it about all, early season polls had the Redskins going 9-7 or 8-8 scratching for a playoff spot. The team is still that team, not a dominate Ranked #1 per Jeff Sagarin, who has moved them to the # 4 team, still not bad for a rookie head coach with a team learning new offense, Jeff Sagarin USA today Rankings

HTTR: Go Team

- New punter?

-New running back?

Always searching for a way to win, the smart money is still on the Zorn hire!

Get REAL: Playoffs ?

dr WNC — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:45:39 -0000

About an 80% chance, good odds!

A little history lesson on precentages and averages,

Which yes, using precentages and averages it should have meant a loss at Dallas and Philly, so the Washington Redskins still need to execute and need to take care of business over the next "quarter" of the season but they have put themselves in a good position. A hidden message is to win the division the Redskins will have to overcome the trend of New York being at 5-0.

NFL Victory Trend Index from Pro Football Prospectus 2008 through Week 5 (data includes games since the 17-week format began in 1990 — excluding the 18-week 1993 season — through 2007).

Through five games, 6.4 percent of the teams were 5-0; 16.2 percent were 4-1; 27.9 percent were 3-2; 25.1 percent were 2-3; 19.0 percent were 1-4; and 5.4 percent were 0-5.

The average season-ending total wins for teams starting 5-0 was 12.4; teams starting 4-1 averaged 10.7 wins; teams starting 3-2 averaged 8.8 wins; teams starting 2-3 averaged 7.0 wins; teams starting 1-4 averaged 5.6 wins; and teams starting 0-5 averaged 3.7 wins.

Teams starting the season 5-0 reached the playoffs 96.4 percent of the time; teams starting 4-1 made the playoffs 80.6 percent of the time; teams starting 3-2 made the playoffs 50.0 percent of the time; teams starting 2-3 made the playoffs 6.0 percent of the time; and no team that started 0-5 made the playoffs