SB Nation User Blog: drabidea

Don't Sign Mark Teixeira

drabidea — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 20:38:59 -0000

Now that I have everybodys attention, I want to preface that I am not totally against us signing him. I just feel there are much better options for the Red Sox.

If we sign Teixeira we are going to have a serious position crunch at 1B/3B/DH. Lets face we are going to have to get rid of someone. Right now that looks like it would have to be Mike Lowell. Call me biased because I am a huge Lowell fan, but it would be one of the biggest mistakes we could make trading him away. Lately we have had a trend of signing players for discounts because they want to win and they enjoy playing in Boston. Lowell is one of those players, he signed with us for 3 years when the Phillies offered him 4 years and more money. His reasoning for staying was that he enjoyed playing in Boston.

What kind of message would we send to our players by trading away a guy who took a discount for us, who is also one of our team leaders and has done everything we have asked of him? Are players going to want to sign for discounts? Is it going to ruin the team chemistry?

Second point. We will be dropping alot of bank to get Teixeira. Yeah I know we have the money, but we could spend it on other things. We could sign some of our young players to long term contracts (Youk, Pedroia, Lester). What happens in a couple years from now when we have too much money on the books and we can't resign these stud players we have groomed so well?

Third point. What about Lars Anderson? I know he is not fully developed but, this guy looks like a future Mark Teixeira. He has a great eye at the plate, gritty, good defensively. Most likely the worst we will get out of him is another Kevin Youkilis. Mike Lowell will come of the books in two years, and Lars will be MLB ready then.

After all this is said, I would not be pissed off if we sign Teixeira because well its Mark F***ing Teixeira. I just want everyone to realize what would have to happen in order for it to happen. Is it really worth all that? Who knows who will be available in two years as well?

Most Valuable Pedroia

drabidea — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 14:23:08 -0000

We have all heard the recent hoopla stating that Dustin Pedroia should be considered for MVP this year. Lets like at why

1st in runs (110) beating Ian Kinsler with 102. First in hits (191) beating Ichiro with 182. Tied for 2nd in doubles (44) just below Brian Roberts with 47. 1st in average with .333. 3rd in total bases (290) behind Josh Hamilton (295) and Aubrey Huff (303). Not to mention his near gold glove defense at 2B.

Do you guys think he deserves the AL MVP award? If not who do you think it should be?

Poll

Should DP be AL MVP?

Yes, of course, he is by far the best player in the AL this year.

31 votes

Yes, by not by much.

36 votes

No, it is close but (Insert Player here) has been just alittle bit better.

19 votes

No fricken way. There are a ton of players better then him.

7 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

Turning the Corner

drabidea — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:54:36 -0000

Have the Red Sox turned the Corner to finish of the Regular Season hot and hopefully carry into the playoffs? Only time can tell but there numbers lately have been quite encouraging. You can attribute it to all sorts of things (Manny Leaving, Ortiz is Back, The Bullpen is getting better).

Bullpen: One of the greatest surprises and moment of encouragement has been the bullpen lately. Over the last 7 days of 18 innings of relief pitching we have given up 1 measly run, which wasn't even earned. Over the last 30 days of 65 innings of relief pitching we have given up 15 runs. That is an ERA of 2.08. They have honestly saved us as of late with our diminutive offense.

Bay: Since he has been a Red Sox: .423/.500/.692 Obviously these numbers won't keep this sultry pace, however, I think he has layed to bed the idea he wouldn't be able to hit with the Boston pressure.

Ellsbury: Still too early to tell but over the last 7 days .353/.353/.529 He still needs to get back to taking Walks but still encouraging.

You can name the recent success on a variety of things, but will it last?

Poll

How will the rest of the Red Sox season turn out?

Keep up torrid pace for the rest of the season and through out the playoffs

7 votes

Good enough to get us into the playoffs but will fall in the playoffs

5 votes

Just a fluke, we won't even make it into the playoffs

4 votes

16 votes | Poll has closed

Proof in Varitek with Numbers

drabidea — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:38:30 -0000

I have been hearing alot of people under estimating Tek's contribution behind the plate. Are you guys kidding me????? Did you watch any of the 2006 season?? Did you miss when Tek had to get surgery and only played 103 games during the year?

In 2006 we had a 63-41 record before he got injured and ended with a 86-76 record. We didn't end up making the playoffs because of it. If you don't believe me yet, lets crunch some numbers.

In the 104 games before Varitek was on the DL the team ERA was 4.65. In the remaining 58 games the team ERA was 5.88. That is a difference of approximately 1.23 earned runs per game. Lets say there would be a similar change if it were to happen this year (even though I think it would be worse considering the age of our pitching staff).

Lets look at Tek's offensive contribution. Varitek currently has 19 RC over 94 games. Lets say we managed to get Joe Mauer's offensive contribution out of whoever replaced Tek (which won't happen). Joe Mauer has 51 RC over 91 games. For those keeping track that is .202 runs per game for Tek and .56 runs per game from Mauer.

As of right now, our team played 94 games has scored 478 runs and allowed 354 runs. Lets say for ease of calculation our team stays at this consistency for the rest of the year. Now if we do what everyone is suggesting we do and get rid of Tek for a replacement. Let's see how the rest of the year would pan out?

There are 68 games left in the season. With Varitek we would score 346 runs and allow 256 runs. With Joe Mauer we would score 370 runs and allow 340 runs. If we use the Pythagorean expectation theorem invented by Bill James. Our Win% with Tek would be .646 and our Win% with Mauer would be .542.

Projected to an end of year record of…..

Tek 99-63

Mauer 92-70

Sabermatician's Nightmare

drabidea — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:20:01 -0000

I don't directly consider myself a Sabermatician, I don't really have the time to put in the effort to do heavy analysis. I do, however, believe in most of the concepts generated from sabermaticians. This includes the famous Bill James.

In one of Bill James Baseball Abstracts (I don't remember which volume) he does statistical data on what offensive metrics are a good determination of how many runs a team will score. He comes up with the conclusion that the two stats that are most correlated to run production are On Base Percentage and Slugging. This study is still highly believed to this day from most or all sabermaticians. Lets look at the Red Sox team numbers.

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in OBP (.354) just behind the Cubs (.362). Also sitting in 4th are the Rangers (.348).

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in SLG (.450) just behind the Rangers (.455). Also sitting in 3rd are the Cubs (.447).

It is quite easy to see that the Cubs, Rangers and Sox are the top 3 teams in Runs scored, which they are. The part that confuses me is the Rangers and Cubs have scored 435 and 430, respectively. The Sox have scored 406, almost 30 runs behind the Rangers. We have even played more games (81) then the Rangers (79). We are only 2 runs ahead of the Phillies who are ranked 5th and 10th respectively in SLG and OBP.

What can attribute for this clear discreption in a study that is as close to fact as facts come in statistics? Is there such thing as bad luck for almost half a season? Is our lineup not set up correctly? What are your opinions on why we are not getting the runs we deserve?

Recent Downfalls

drabidea — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 21:24:00 -0000

With the worst losing streak of the season putting us behind the Rays in the standings, made me curious why we are struggling as of late. I am kind of a stat guy so I like to look at stats to help guide me.

My first instinct was that our bats had finally cooled off compared to our early amazing slug fest. This doesn't seem to be the problem. In the past 7 days we have the second highest batting average (.311) and OBP (.390) behind the Cubs. We are also still 7th in the majors with runs scored.

Well clearly my next thought was, it must be our pitching. It has stunk all year, it must be extra horrid as of late. Our team ERA has actually gotten better over the past 7 days from 4.61 to 4.57. Still horrible, but why are we losing now because of it? If our pitching as marginally gotten better why would we lose more?

Parts of me says it is because of the really, REALLY long stretch of games we have had with no time off (28 games in 30 days). So tonight I am going to have a drink (its my way of praying) to the day off an hope we can rest up.

Anyone have thoughts on the recent losing streak?

Some extra tidbits of stats I thought were interesting.

1.We have the 3rd worst bullpen in the majors, just ahead of the rangers and mariners.

2. We also have the 3rd worst pitching with RISP in the majors, just ahead of the Padres and Rangers

3. Manny Ramirez hasn't had a homer or RBI and only 1 walk in the past 7 days (maybe longer).

4. J.D. Drew has cooled off ALOT. In the past 7 days, he is batting and slugging .190. All 4 hits have been singles. He is still drawing walks (6) which makes me think he might not be getting a pitch to hit, but he has recently been hitting in the 3 spot so I don't know.

Jon Lester Projections

drabidea — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:19:24 -0000

I get a general vibe from everyone that Jon Lester is going to be an average to above average pitcher. I firmly believe that he has the intangibles that bring an ace pitcher.

What are peoples prediction for this season and the future out of Jon Lester?

I can see him putting up 160 inn. and 10 wins this season. I also think in a couple of years he will be a 17 game winner. He has been compared to Andy Pettitte and Mark Mulder both were/are top notch pitchers. Mostly people have problems with his control of late. I think this has alot to do with a couple things.

He had to take time off for cancer and then next year he is pitching in the majors. You are bound to forget some of the movements. He just needed to knock some rust off. It also doesn't help that he has so many pitches. Last time I knew he had 5 pitches, 2 seam, 4 seam, change up, curve, and cutter. He has always had great control in the minors why would that change in the majors.

I think once he gets some more innings in the big show he will get back to his old self which was dominate. All though he could just fade away like many pitchers in similar positions.

What do you guys/gals think?