After reading reaction to the Guthrie trade, I am now to believe that Dan Duquette at worst is floundering, or at best just treading water while the O's try to find a way to win 81 games on the cheap. There are other shades of gray here, but I am partial to the later line of thought. It seems pretty clear that the Warehouse is itching to get the losing streak monkey off its back. Well, by 'Warehouse' I mean Peter Angelos. I'd be embarassed too if I were him, but he seems to have a high tolerance for embarrassment, at least when it comes to the baseball team. I figure nice reports from the bank are easing the pain. I'll admit they would for me as well. In any event, Duquette is probably caught between the need to rebuild a crumbled franchise and the pressure to win 81 games.

It sure seems that Duquette is trying to tread water until he sees whether some of the young pitching pans out. That would be the battered cavalry that was celebrated a few years back and we're still waiting for some remnant to arrive. In the meanwhile, he is trying to build up a little depth and the Asian market is the focus for pitching. The last time he had to revamp a team, his focus was in Latin America. Every decent team has caught onto Latin America and there is plenty of competition. It remains to be seen how dedicated he is to the Asian market and I'm curious to see if he'll find position players. Building up overall depth will take some time, and his more immediate acquisition of players looking for a second chance is again much like what Duquette did with the Red Sox until yong players could come through the system. Given the pressure to eke out an 81 win season, I'm not expecting any existing decent talent currently under Orioles control for a couple years to be traded. He'll focus on the draft and player development and has already stated this has been a sore spot for the franchise. The O's need to nail multiple drafts in a row and they have not emphasized depth and player development for what, decades? Fixing that will take a bit of time, and there's the rub for a cynical fan base. How does he respond to the pressure to win 81 games versus build up the franchise? There are no easy answers.

The 2011 Orioles were slightly above league average in slugging, right with Toronto. The O's 2011 OBP was below league average by six points, but again, right there with Toronto. If they can up the OBP a bit, as per Duquette's focus, the pitching still needs to make significant strides. TOR's pitching was not all that great last year and they eked out 81 wins. This is not meant to be a rock solid comparison, but this line of thought is likely somewhere in the front office. In the longer term, we've no idea if the Asian pipeline will pan out. We've no idea if a revamped scouting and player development will succeed. If history is any indication, Duquette won't hesitate to make changes if he does not see results. This too would be a change for a stagnant organization.

Procuring middling players for cheap in an attempt to increase OBP is not exciting. Hoping that we'll see more runs because of this higher OBP and continued power from the likes of Reynolds and perhaps Hardy, Wieters, Jones is also not an exciting sell. Combine that with developing better pitching because Duquette has emphasized conditioning, mechanics, and overall player development. This is not the stuff for exciting MASN commercials. Let's face it, an advertising campaign stating "We're trying our best for 81 wins as cheaply as possible" is not exciting. At least Duquette avoided washed up free agents that in the past did make it onto MASN commercials, but it never led to anything in the standings. But the fact remains that all the O's need to generate a buzz in Baltimore is 81 wins.

So now the fans are left wondering what's going on and expectations are low. I do know that the O's have been consistent at not meeting expectations. Even when we knew they were not going to be good, they somehow managed to be even worse. This pretty much sums up the MacPhail years. MacPhail is not the only example, but convenient because he is the most recent. He started out by revamping the team and trying to buy time with a crummy team while the O's "grew the arms". The O's managed to be crummier than expected. When he declared "winning counts" (and hence told the fans they were suckers the previous year) the O's went out and lost just as much as they previously had. I am not saying all his moves were poor. Of course they weren't, but the end result was a team that consistently lost a lot of games while expectations grew. Fans are sick and tired of it and now Duquette has to deal with a soured fan base while making moves that are not exciting.

If the OBP actually does tick upwards and ultimately produces more runs, the young pitchers make some strides, and the other pitchers help stabilize the rotation, the O's just might show some improvement in the win column. Despite all the carping about Duquette, if the O's do that and somehow manage to flirt with 75 wins the fans will get excited. That's how pathetic this franchise has become. They will generate some buzz if they near a win total in the mid seventies. They'll be celebrated if they flirt with 81 wins. The front office knows this and it's a likely goal. I wouldn't say that the Warehouse is purposefully lowering expectations, but all they need is a team that will do better than the dismal play fans now expect. Show even a hint that the team could approach 81 in 2013 and they'll be a topic of conversation during the summer and season ticket package deals will bump up for 2013.

The bar is really low in 2012, as it has been for the past decade plus. Just show progress towards the Mount Everest (for this franchise) of 81 wins. Despite the current negative reactions from the fans still paying attention, the O's know this is all they need to do.