SB Nation User Blog: drothgery

If the season ended today, week 10

drothgery — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:54:48 -0000

This week's BCS standings re-introduce the implausible title game that we've had for most of the season, and right now the highest-ranked teams in some conferences seem unlikely to win them. But that's where we are.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #9 USC (P10) vs. #10 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #11 Ohio State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #13 Oregon (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since the results this week assured they will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively. USC won't win the Pac 10 because Oregon is up a game and owns the tiebreakers with USC. Iowa won't win the Big Ten because they'll lose to Ohio State next week. But they are the highest-ranked teams in their respective conferences as far as the BCS is concerned this week.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Ohio State. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. Oregon is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and rematch with Miami). This won't happen because only Stanford could win the Pac 10 without Oregon losing another game.

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU. This actually might happen if Texas lays an egg in one of its remaining regular season games and so Cinci jumps them for the title game.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Ohio State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in.

Boise State, Pitt, and Miami get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Alabama returned to #2 thanks to the statistical rankings. Ohio State beat Penn State and so became the second Big Ten team. Oregon lost and dropped behind USC in the BCS rankings.

Bowl Projections, week 10

drothgery — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:46:51 -0000

I was hoping to leave the crazy projections behind with last week, but we got so many crazy actual results on the field this week that I'm not sure how to project things. Still, I'm going to try.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Penn State (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. USC (P10)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
I'm finally bowing to the inevitable and projecting an SEC champion vs. Texas game. I don't like it, but it seems like nothing's going to derail it at this point. Right now I give the edge to Florida in the SEC.

Other conference champions:
By winning this week while Iowa lost, the Buckeyes just became Big Ten favorites again. I'm still projecting Oregon as Pac 10 champ even after losing this week due to the way tiebreakers fall out, and because Arizona is just starting the toughest part of their schedule.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they nearly have their division wrapped up (they're a game up on Miami and VT, have tiebreakers vs. VT, and only have to play Duke), which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. The coaches and computers prefer them to Boise, though the Harris voters didn't as of last week..

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Since no Big 12 team is available, the Fiesta Bowl committee takes Penn State -- the best-travelling team available, without a moment's hesitation (the guess here is that PSU will win out and move ahead of Iowa after the Hawkeyes lose to Ohio State).

The Sugar chooses next to relace Florida. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Alabama just might end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Tide here.

The Orange finds itself in a difficult position, with its options limitted to Cinci, TCU, and one of the available at-large teams. But no Big Ten or SEC teams are available due to the two team per conference limit (though odds are LSU -- and even two-loss Iowa -- are in the final top 14), no Big 12 teams are available because no one other than Texas even remotely resembles a top-14 team, an ACC team would be a rematch even if someone was eligible, Big East and non-BCS teams don't travel well, and a two-loss USC team is a bit of a question mark. Still, it's the best option available, so they go there.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it. This annoys Pitt fans to no end, as the Panthers should have a better record and a head-to-head win over ND. In fact, if they beat WVU and ND handily and lose a close one to Cinci, as I currently expect, they're going to be upset they're not in the BCS.

Meineke/Charlotte: WVU's loss to USF puts them low enough in the selection order that Pitt goes here even with a somewhat worse fan base.

International Bowl/Toronto: ... but the 'eers don't drop far. WVU goes here.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: Rutgers. Looked good against UConn.

St. Petersburg Bowl: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

Filling some conference's unused slot, and winning their bowl game handily: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

If the season ended today, week 9

drothgery — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:31:03 -0000

A few small shifts in the standings make the 'if the season ended today' for this week a lot more plausible.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Texas (B12)
Rose: #8 Oregon (P10) vs. #4 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #11 Penn State vs. #6 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large; autobid as #3) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 USC (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Texas are currently #1 and #2, setting up the SEC vs. Texas that the pollsters have been declaring is inevitable since the begining of the season.

Oregon and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.
Alabama is guaranteed a bid as a top-4 team from a BCS conference that is not the conference champion.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, and Alabama is guaranteed a slot, so they select Alabama.

The Fiesta then chooses a team to replace Texas. They'd have exclusive rights to another Big 12 team, but none are available. Since the Fiesta has long since proven that it will do what's best for the Fiesta Bowl, regardless of how that affects the other BCS bowls, it selects Penn State (even though it would be more logical to take USC and let Penn State go to the Orange, and you could make a decent case that Boise State deserves to go here).

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. USC is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and Utah).

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Penn State. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Alabama in the Sugar. Boise State, Pitt, and Utah get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Texas moved up to #2 and completely reshuffled things. Oregon beat USC to become the presumptive Pac 10 champion. Still, no changes in which teams are playing in BCS bowls, just in matchups

Edit: Explained why Penn State is in the Fiesta Bowl.

Bowl Projections, week 9

drothgery — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 15:34:16 -0000

Since I'm not sure I'll have much time later today or early this week to put together the 'if things ended today' document that reflects the current BCS standings, I'm going to do the purely speculative version first.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Cincinatti (Big East)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: Penn State (at-large) vs. USC (P10)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs.Florida (SEC)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
This may be my crazy week. But I can't shake the feeling that at least half of the major conference unbeatens will take a hit eventually. On the other hand, I became somewhat more convinced that Texas and Cinci won't be the ones that do. Which means that Texas and Cinci get to play for everything, and the SEC gets to sit this one out. Obviously, this means Texas and Cinci win the Big 12 and Big East, respecitively.

Iowa goes the Rose as Big 10 champs; they lose at Ohio State but win all of their other remaining games, while Ohio State loses at Penn State. Iowa owns the tiebreaker over Penn State due to a head to head win. Oregon pretty much has an iron lock on the Pac 10 title at this point, barring an epic collapse; they're two games up on everybody else.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they nearly have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. The pollsters like Boise a little more than TCU, but the stats like TCU a lot more.

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Since no Big 12 team is available, the Fiesta Bowl committee takes Penn State -- the best-travelling team available, without a moment's hesitation. Since the Big East does not have an 'anchor' bowl, no one is chosen to replace Cinci.

The Orange has the first at-large selection, and does a dance of joy when Florida is availabe, and puts the home-state Gators up against Georgia Tech.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes USC for a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl.

TCU is shuffled off to the Sugar Bowl, so Alabama gets to play an undefeated MWC champ two years in a row.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it. This annoys Pitt fans to no end, as the Panthers should have a better record and a head-to-head win over ND.

Meineke/Charlotte: WVU's loss to USF puts them low enough in the selection order that Pitt goes here even with a somewhat worse fan base.

International Bowl/Toronto: ... but the 'eers don't drop far. WVU goes here.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: Rutgers. Looked good against UConn.

St. Petersburg Bowl: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

Filling some conference's unused slot: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse, Louisville

Bowl Projections, week 8

drothgery — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:48:00 -0000

Admittedly, this is still early, but the Big Ten SBNation blog and ESPN and CNN / SI have been doing these since the first week of the season, so I don't think I'm jumping the gun by starting them when the BCS standings become available.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Alabama (SEC) vs. USC (P10)
Rose: Oregon (at-large) vs. Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: Texas (B12) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Florida (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (BE)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
I think Alabama will beat Florida in the SEC title game if the Gators don't lose before then. And I don't see anyone else in a BCS conference going undefeated. Beyond that, USC usually wins out after losing a random Pac 10 game, and that should be enough to get them to #2 after Florida and Texas have lost. Cinci or Iowa would likely jump any one-loss team in my estimation (with top-5 rankings from the pollsters and top-2 from the stat guys, it's probably enough), but I don't think either runs the table, and I'm not sure anyone does.

Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ; they suffer a hiccup somewhere (probably vs. Oklahoma State), but it doesn't keep them from winning the Big 12 this year.

Virginia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; the Hokies almost always end up on top when the ACC roulette wheel stops spinning. Miami's loss this week was the first shoe to drop on the road to this happening.

Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ. I figure they may lose to WVU or Pitt, but 6-1 in the Big East will be good enough to win the conference. My guess is actually WVU beats Cinci, Cinci beats Pitt, Pitt beats WVU... which sends the Big East to tiebreakers, and Cinci wins due to a higher BCS ranking (because they're 11-1 and the other two are 10-2).

TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. The pollsters like Boise a little more than TCU, but the stats like TCU a lot more.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Alabama. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, so they take Florida.

The Orange has to pick Virginia Tech's opponent next. If Ohio State is eligible, they go here, but I don't think a 9-3 Ohio State cracks the top 14, so Penn State gets the spot.

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select Boise State.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Florida in the Sugar.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it. This annoys Pitt fans to no end, as the Panthers should have a better record and a head-to-head win over ND.

Meineke/Charlotte: West Virginia will be snatched up by the first bowl that can take them, and can't take Notre Dame, so they go here.

International Bowl/Toronto: Pitt; probably considers Pitt and UConn, with no interest in USF

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: UConn; I moved USF down two slots because they haven't looked good against Cinci or Pitt. If that was more because the Bearcats and Panthers are good than because the Bulls are so-so, they'll go here.

St. Petersburg Bowl: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

Filling some conference's unused slot: Rutgers

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse, Louisville

Update: Fixed some typos, reconsidered USF

If the season ended today, week 8

drothgery — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:39:11 -0000

Well, here's the second week of my breakdowns. These will get more interesting later in the year, I expect.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (autobid as #2)
Rose: #5 USC (P10) vs. #4 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #6 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #12 Penn State (at-large) vs. #8 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #11 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #10 Oregon (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Bama are currently #1 and #2 (this almost certainly can't last, since they'll play each other in the SEC title game if they win out, and will drop behind other teams if they don't, but it's true now), so they go to the BCS title game.

USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs.
Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ.
Miami (FL) goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They'd normally have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, but since two are playing in the BCS title game, they can't take one. Of the available teams in the BCS top 14, Penn State easily has the best fan following (and the bowls are interested in making money, not providing the best possible game), so they select #12 Penn State.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. The next-best fanbase availalbe (Virginia Tech) would be a regular season rematch, so they turn to #10 Oregon instead, though they might also go with #14 Oklahoma State.

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: TCU replaces Boise State as the mid-major with the autobid; Georgia Tech replaces Miami (FL) as presumptive ACC champion.

Bowl Projections, week 7

drothgery — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 02:15:06 -0000

Unlike my 'if the season ended today' post, my 'bowl projection' posts do try and guess at what will happen in the future; they're based on how I think things will end up given what has already happened, rather than being strictly based on the current BCS rankings.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Alabama (SEC) vs. USC (P10)
Rose: Oregon (at-large) vs. Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: Texas (B12) vs. Boise State (WAC/in top 8)
Sugar: Florida (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (BE)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Ohio State (at-large)

Iowa goes the Rose as Big 10 champs; they lose at Ohio State but win all of their other remaining games.

Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ; they suffer a hiccup somewhere, but it doesn't keep them from winning the Big 12 this year.

Virginia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; the Hokies almost always end up on top when the ACC roulette wheel stops spinning.

Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ. I figure they may lose to WVU or Pitt, but 6-1 in the Big East will be good enough to win the conference.

Boise State is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. TCU loses to BYU or Utah, and so doesn't pass Bosie.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Alabama. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, so they take Florida.

The Orange has to pick Virginia Tech's opponent next. Since Ohio State slips back in to the top 14 after beating Iowa and winning out except for a squeeker vs. Penn State (albeit unimpressively), they pick the Buckeyes in a straightforward move to sell tickets.

The Fiesta must select either Boise State or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since Boise State is much closer, they select Boise State.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it.
Meineke/Charlotte: West Virginia will be snatched up by the first bowl that can take them, and can't take Notre Dame, so they go here.
International Bowl/Toronto: Pitt; probably considers Pitt and UConn, with no interest in USF
PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: USF; go here mostly because they went to St. Pete last year
St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn; have to go somewhere
staying home for the holidays: Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville

If the season ended today, week 7

drothgery — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:39:45 -0000

Once we get to the second half of the football season, each week I usually try to take a look at where the top teams are (even in these dark times where the Orange are not even close to being a top football team) right now, and where I think they'll end up.

I used to try and do these on my own blog, or post them to BigEastBoards.com, but since neither gets very much traffic, I think I'm going to try posting them here this year.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (autobid as #2)
Rose: #7 USC (P10) vs. #6 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 Boise State (autobid as #4, and highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #13 Penn State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Miami (ACC) vs. #11 Oregon (at-large)

Here's the logic:

USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs.
Texas goes to the Fiesta as Big 12 champ.
Miami (FL) goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
Boise State is guaranteed a bid as the #4 team, and also as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Orange has to pick Miami's opponent next. The next-best fanbase availalbe (Virginia Tech) would be a regular season rematch, so they turn to #11 Oregon instead.

The Fiesta must select either Boise State or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since Boise State is much closer, they select Boise State.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar. TCU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

ESPN's college pick'em

drothgery — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:00:13 -0000

ESPN's college pick'em

If anyone's interested, I created a 'Quest For Toronto' group on ESPN's college pick'em. Password is marrone.

The Quest for Toronto group

Crazy realignment schemes

drothgery — Fri, 29 May 2009 20:13:35 -0000

I posted this originally on my blog back in late March, in response to this post over at the Auburn SBN blog. But since Big Ten expansion talk begets Big East split / expansion / collapse talk as surely as night follows day, and because I'm out of work and bored and trying to get an audience for my crazy ideas on how to fix college sports, I figured I'd repost it here with a little editing.

That blog post I pointed to above hypothesized a 64-team NCAA football tournament. I wondered how to actually do it, and came to the conclusion that you needed to cut the regular season down to ten games (not 12, or especially 12 + a conference championship game) to make room for six rounds of playoffs. With the pretty much standard (except in the Big East and Pac 10) eight conference games, that would only leave two non-conference games, and that’s not enough. And no matter what the Big Ten does, a system that allows ties between teams that have never played is a problem anyway. So I figured let’s create 15 eight-team conferences. I’m largely keeping the ‘BCS/non-BCS’ split intact here, with 9 conferences made up of teams that are presently in BCS conferences, have played in BCS bowls, or have been in the top 15 recently (plus a pair of stragglers).

I did eventually decide a 32-team playoff was more appropriate than a 64-team playoff, but you still need the smaller conferences and shorter schedules for that. 15 conference champions plus 17 at-large makes a nice bracket.

Big East

Boston College, Connecticut, Maryland, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, West Virginia

This is pretty much the ‘Paterno Conference’ that never happened, except that it’s got UConn instead of Temple. Penn State and Maryland join the northeastern Big East schools, and Boston College returns to the Big East. Its recruiting base is Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Penn State is clearly the big dog in this conference, but every team has had ten-win seasons in the last fifteen years (yes, even us here at Syracuse).

ACC

Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Every team in this league is a current or former ACC member; South Carolina is the only one that’s not a current ACC school, and Virginia Tech the only one that’s not a founding member of the ACC. Putting all the schools in the Carolinas and Virginia together just makes sense. This league’s more than a little top-heavy, though; Virginia Tech probably dominates it.

Big Ten

Cincinnati, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Putting the Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan schools together was obvious (even if Cincinnati is a newcomer to big-time football). I chose Wisconsin for the eighth because it was the only state that bordered the increasingly inaccurately named Big Ten where there was only one BCS-conference school, and the Wisconsin-Michigan rivalry is pretty big. Notre Dame also joins the downsized Big Ten, as most of its traditional rivals play here, and my dislike of the Domers isn’t enough to consign them to mid-major land.

Gulf Coast

Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida

This is the first ‘killer conference’ I’ve set up, chock full of traditional football powers. The traditional SEC powers and the other Florida schools might object to USF, but the Bulls have been playing better football than Miami and FSU lately, and I really don’t like the idea of down-grading a school to mid-major land. Besides, with four Florida BCS schools, two Georgia BCS schools, and two Alabama BCS schools, this conference comes together quite nicely.

SEC

Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Since this conference has seven SEC schools, I let it keep the SEC name even though most of the traditional SEC powers are in the new ‘Gulf Coast’ conference. Louisville joins in-state rival Kentucky to fill out the league. There are some pretty good programs here, but LSU probably will except to dominate. Actually a better basketball conference than football conference, which you wouldn’t think at first glance.

Big 8

Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Minnesota, Northwestern

I resurrected an old name to combine most of the Big 12 North with the western remainder of the Big Ten. This is probably the weakest ‘major’ conference I put together, but geography made other alternatives pretty bad. I could have done some shuffling to put Nebraska here, but they haven’t done much lately, so I let this arrangement stand. I know Nebraska is actually north of Kansas, but it worked better this way. Besides, there had to be at least a little bit of quirkiness in this system; this is college football, after all...

SWC

Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU

Despite the presence of Baylor and A&M, this is the other ‘killer conference’, I think. The Big 12 South + Nebraska and TCU reprise the SWC name. My sense is that Nebraska’s rivalries were stronger with the Big 12 South schools than with the Big 12 North schools, and moving any of the mid-majors in the area other than TCU up would be kind of pushing things, and I didn’t need to do that here.

Mountain West

Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Colorado, Nevada, UNLV, Utah

Although I borrowed the name from the Mountain West, this conference is really 3 MWC schools, 2 WAC schools, 2 Pac 10 schools, and 1 Big 12 school. Kind of a hodgepodge, but it gets BYU, Utah, and Boise into a major conference. I needed two more western schools to fill out the league, and chose the Nevada schools mostly on potential.

Pac 8

Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

This league is just the old Pac 8, the Pac 10 without the Arizona schools. No fussing around here. They’re the only west-cost BCS conference schools.

With the mid-majors, I wasn’t as consistent about respecting state lines; trying to keep all the schools in a state together tended to result in sprawling conferences in places other than the west (where that’s unavoidable).

Eastern

Akron, Army, Buffalo, Kent State, Marshall, Navy, Ohio, Temple

The eastern MAC schools, plus Marshall, Temple, and the eastern service academies. I kept trying to find a way to keep the Ohio schools together and gave up.

MAC

Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

The rest of the MAC schools. I left the MAC name here because most of the traditional MAC powers ended up in this league.

Sun Belt

East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State, Troy, UAB, UCF, Western Kentucky

The southeastern mid-majors, for the most part. It's mostly current Sun Belt schools, though. I'm sure ECU and UCF fans would hate this plan, but I had to put them somewhere.

CUSA

Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Memphis, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulane

Mostly Louisiana schools, plus a few from surrounding states. I ended up grabbing one Texas school to round things out.

Central

Houston, New Mexico, New Mexico State, North Texas, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, UTEP, Wyoming

The rest of the southwestern mid-majors, plus Wyoming; I ran out of schools.

WAC

Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, San Diego State, San Jose State, Utah State

The rest of the western mid-majors. Fresno probably resents being here instead of in the MWC, but that just didn't work.

And with a little bit of projection as to how the conference champs fall out and how the committee would do seeding, here’s our field of 32 from the 2008 seeding (basically I used the BCS rankings for seeding and determining the 17 at-large teams, but USC got bumped from into the top 4 because they were a more logical #1 in the west, and I figured Ohio State as Big Ten champ was more likely to get a #2 than the third-ranking SWC team in Texas Tech)…

East (Indianapolis)	West (San Diego)
1. Texas (SWC/at-large)	1. USC (Pac 8/champ)
2. Penn State (Big East/champ)	2. Utah (MWC/champ)
3. Cincinnati (Big Ten/at-large)	3. Boise State (MWC/at-large)
4. Georgia Tech (Gulf Coast/at-large)	4. BYU (MWC/at-large)
5. Pitt (Big East/at-large)	5. Oregon (Pac 8/at-large)
6. BC (Big East/at-large)	6. Northwestern (Big 8/at-large)
7. East Carolina (Sun Belt/champ)	7. Oregon State (Pac 8/at-large)
8. Buffalo (Eastern/champ)	8. Air Force (WAC/champ)
South (Atlanta)	Midwest (St. Louis)
1. Florida (Gulf Coast/champ)	1. Oklahoma (SWC/champ)
2. Alabama (Gulf Coast/at-large)	2. Ohio State (Big Ten/champ)
3. TCU (SWC/at-large)	3. Texas Tech (SWC/at-large)
4. Georgia (Gulf Coast/at-large)	4. Oklahoma State (SWC/at-large)
5. Virginia Tech (ACC/champ)	5. Michigan State (Big Ten/at-large)
6. Ball State (MAC/champ)	6. Missouri (Big 8/champ)
7. Florida State (Gulf Coast/at-large)	7. Mississippi (SEC/champ)
8. Rice (CUSA/champ)	8. Tulsa (Central/champ)

For the curious, that breaks downs as…

One-bid leagues: ACC, Central, CUSA, Eastern, MAC, SEC, Sun Belt, WAC
Gulf Coast: 5 bids (Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida State)
SWC: 5 bids (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State)
Big East: 3 bids (Penn State, Pitt, BC)
Big Ten: 3 bids (Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan State)
MWC: 3 bids (Utah, Boise State, BYU)
Pac 8: 3 bids (USC, Oregon, Oregon State)
Big 8: 2 bids (Missouri, Northwestern)