SB Nation User Blog: drothgery

Bowl projections, week 14

drothgery — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 04:57:30 -0000

Well, the last dominos that could have prevented Boise from getting in the BCS fell. The title game should be Alabama/Cinci, but will be the somewhat inevitable matchup. There will be no 'if the season ended today' post this week, because I don't think the BCS standings will be released before the BCS games will be announced, and certainly won't be with enough time for me to write something up.

Teams in Bold have wrapped up their BCS bid. Although it's theoretically possible for Boise to pass TCU, it wuold take some bizarre behavior by the voters and computers.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Alabama (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Iowa (at-large) vs. Boise State (at-large)
Sugar: Florida (at-large/in top 4) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Alabma beat Florida convincingly. If Florida/Alabama had looked like Texas/Nebraska did, no one would have been surprised or questioned the winner's merits. As is, Nebraska only had half a team, and Texas just barely got by them. Because TCU played bad MWC teams at the end of the year (and this year's version of Utah and BYU would have had trouble beating us, and WVU or Pitt would have made them look silly) while Cinci played good Big East teams with a beat-up defense and a backup QB, lots of people seem to like TCU more than Cinci. But it's nonsense.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa a few weeks ago. Oregon defeated Oregon State in the Civil War to earn the Pac 10 title (in what was a great game, for those of you also on the west coast, or willing to stay up late).

Georgia Tech won a defense-free ACC title game (though somewhat run-dominated, so it wasn't quite as high-scoring as the de facto Big East title game).

Cinci won the Big East title and finsihed a perfect season at Pitt in dramatic fashion. After Texas nearly laid an egg, that ought to be enough to put them in the title game. If we had done what Cinci did, the Orange would be playing for the national title, I think. But since it's Cinci, they're going to get to do the traditional Big East knocking off of an overrated SEC/Big 12 team that missed the title game.

The Sugar chooses first to relace Alabama. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Florida likely will end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Gators here.

The Fiesta chooses next to replace Texas. At this spot, one of the available Big Ten teams is nearly certain. Mid-major fans think TCU should get consideration at this spot, but there's just no way. Last time I checked, the Fiesta favored Iowa from the Big Ten pair.

With losses by USC and Clemson, the Orange is getting annoyed with the BCS. VT/Cinci last year. Louisville/Wake back in '06. They don't have any options that would sell tickets or get them a good game or good TV ratings. And they don't want Cinci again, so even though TCU would do better at the Fiesta and Cinci would do better at the Orange, they take TCU.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes Boise because geography says its prferable to Cinci, and a 9-3 Virginia Tech isn't a good bet for drawing fans to Phoenix. If the Sugar were picking here, Boise would be out of luck.

And Florida has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl, because the Sugar Bowl picks last.

Big East bowls

Gator (Jax)/Sun (El Paso): WVU. ND is no longer eligible, and Pitt pretty much flubbed the spot away by losing to the 'eers. Though Bobby Bowden's retirement may have made WVU's appearance here inevitable. WVU accepted a bid to the Gator after beating Rutgers.

Meineke/Charlotte: Pitt. They're tied with WVU for second in the Big East, and two games up on USF and UConn.

International Bowl/Toronto: Rutgers. USF, Rutgers, and UConn are tied in the Big East standings. UConn went to Canada last year, and USF really doesn't want to be there.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: USF. St.Pete doesn't really want the home team, and it's a lot more convenient to Tampa than to Storrs.

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn. Being the last pick actually gets them a better location than #4 or #5.

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse (confirmed)

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville (confirmed)

If the season ended today, week 13

drothgery — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:00:10 -0000

For most of the time BCS rankings have been available this year, we've had a #1 and #2 that are going to meet in their conference championship game, which makes an actual showdown in the BCS title game unlikely. Still the point of these articles is to show the effect of things the way they are now, not how I expect them to be next week. And the talk going around the media in the last few days about a rematch being quite possible if Texas loses is probably just intended as a warning to poll voters that no matter what happens next week, they really have to vote the SEC title game loser #4 or worse to make sure the computers don't produce a rematch.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion (unless the actual champion has already been determined), here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.

Teams in italics are projected to win automatic bids. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #7 Oregon (P10) vs. #8 Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #11 Penn State (at-large) vs. #12 Virginia Tech (at-large)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs #5 Cincinnati (Big East)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

Ohio State has won the Big Ten, regardless of what happens in the rest of the season. Oregon plays Oregon State with the Pac 10 title on the line on Thursday.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they play Clemson in the ACC championship game.

Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ. They play Pitt in a de facto Big East championship game this weekend.

TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. Since they have no remainging games, and Boise can't plausibly do anything to pass them against New Mexico State, this bid is locked up.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Penn State (or Iowa), as Big Ten teams travel extremely well. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen, or at least shouldn't. Texas definitely has to lose to set it up, and Cinci probably does.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. They hate this scenario as much as they love the one I put in my projections, as they have to take a western mid-major, another ACC team, or a non-WVU Big East team. They curse, and then select Cinci after university officials sign oaths in blood to bring more fans this year.

The Fiesta is in an interesting situation with mid-level big draw Virginia Tech available, but TCU and good-drawing in a western bowl Boise available (and BYU would draw well in Phoenix, too). Still, they take the all-Texas game and select TCU to play Texas. This won't happen because if Texas wins the Big 12 title game, they're going to the BCS title game (even if they look ugly doing it and Cinci beats Pitt by 40, the Bearcats aren't passing Texas any more than idle TCU will); in the unlikley event that they lose, Nebraska will be here.

This leaves Boise or Virginia Tech to play Penn State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in. But they'll play the SEC championship game loser here.

Boise State and BYU get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; Iowa and LSU get to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Removed Oklahoma State from a projected BCS spot, and reshuffled.

Bowl Projections, week 13

drothgery — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:00:58 -0000

Oklahoma State lost, and made projecting the final at-large BCS spot somewhat difficult, because I still can't see a BCS bowl taking Boise unless they have no other good options.

Teams in Bold have wrapped up their BCS bid. Although it's theoretically possible for Boise to pass TCU, it wuold take some bizarre behavior by the voters and computers.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Iowa (at-large) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Clemson (ACC) vs. USC (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Well, there's certainly no reason to switch on Floribama this week. And even if Texas let A&M hang around, they're still likely to crush Nebraska. So we get the BCS title game everyone has been expecting all season.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa a few weeks ago, and the Big Ten regular season is over. The Civil War in Eugene decides the Pac 10 champ; an Oregon win knocks Oregon State down, and is one of things needed to make this projection happen.

Georgia Tech lost their QB in their non-conference loss to Georgia. Clemson also lost their rivalry game to an SEC team, but if Nesbitt misses the ACC title game or is significantly hampered, you've got to like Clemson here.

After Pitt's loss to WVU, any temptation to switch the projected Big East champ is done (and a Cinci win to knock Pitt below USC is required to set up my projections). TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8; as mentioned in the lead-in, this almost certainly cannot change.

The Sugar chooses first to relace Florida. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Alabama just might end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Tide here.

The Fiesta chooses next to replace Texas. At this spot, one of the available Big Ten teams is nearly certain, though if USC becomes available, it becomes a lot more fuzzy. Mid-major fans think TCU should get consideration at this spot, but there's just no way.

With a few wins by the favorites, USC becomes available and between that and a Clemson win, the Orange Bowl gets to exhale after thinking its possibilities for a well-attended bowl game had disappeared on Thanksgiving with the Oklahoma State loss. The Orange Bowl committee loves this game. USC likes not going to the Rose Bowl (though they would have preferred taking another route to a non-Rose BCS game). Nobody outside of USC fans likes watching USC beat up on Clemson in the actual game.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl, because the Sugar Bowl picks last.

Big East bowls

Gator (Jax)/Sun (El Paso): WVU. ND is no longer eligible, and Pitt pretty much flubbed the spot away by losing to the 'eers (and to Cinci next week).

Meineke/Charlotte: Pitt. I like WVU over Rutgers and USF over UConn next week, which gives Pitt sole possession of third place despite a loss.

International Bowl/Toronto: USF. South Florida going to Canada for a bowl is somewhat amusing.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: Rutgers holds on to this spot by not losing to Louisville after losing to us. They stay ahead of UConn because UConn will likely lose to USF (even in Hartford in December).

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse (confirmed)

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville (confirmed)

If the season ended today, week 12

drothgery — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:39:35 -0000

Kind of a dull week of actual football involving highly ranked teams outside of the Pac 10 (fortunately, like our host, I live out west and could actually see the Pac 10 games, but I don't get ESPN360 where I'm at right now, so I couldn't see us beat Rutgers). Still, LSU's loss did move Virginia Tech into the top 14, which might affect things a bit down the road, but no changes in how things would play out if the season ended today.

Teams in italics are projected to win automatic bids. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #8 Oregon (P10) vs. #10 Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #13 Penn State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #7 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 Oklahoma State (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

Ohio State has won the Big Ten, regardless of what happens in the rest of the season. Oregon plays Oregon State with the Pac 10 title on the line a week from Thanksgiving.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Penn State (or Iowa), as Big Ten teams travel extremely well. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen. Really. At minimum, Texas and Cinci would need to lose, and TCU probably would as well. And TCU's playing an awful team in their regular season finale.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. They've taken Big 12 teams in the past when they could, and now that Oklahoma State is available, they take them. This won't happen because if the seemingly inevitable Floribama/Texas title game happens, Oklahoma State will likely be in the Fiesta if they're eligible for the BCS at all. The Orange will be okay, though, as they'll be able to take Penn State/Iowa.

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Texas. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU. This actually might happen if Texas lays an egg in one of its remaining regular season games and so Cinci jumps them for the title game.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Penn State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in. But they'll play the SEC championship game loser here.

Boise State and Pitt and Virginia Tech get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; Iowa gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: None.

Bowl Projections, week 12

drothgery — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:13:48 -0000

Not a lot of change from last week, as the only top-14 team to lose was LSU, which wasn't going to get a BCS bid anyway (barring a crazy upset of the eventual SEC title game loser, which seems extremely unlikely at this point).

Teams in Bold have wrapped up their BCS bid.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (at-large) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Floribama played cupcakes this week, so no useful information was provided. So I'm still projecting Florida as SEC champs. Texas destroyed midling Big 12 team Kansas to formally lock up its Big 12 tile game appearance.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa last week, and its regular season is over with a win over Michigan. Remember how last week the Pac 10 race was insanely crazy and had scenarios where six teams could win the league? Well, it simplified itself to the point where the Oregon/Oregon State winner a week from Thanksgiving goes to the Rose Bowl, and that game's in Eugene.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game to Clemson. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened, and it wouldn't be that huge of an upset.

Both Cinci and Pitt had the week off. Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting extremely tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. Both the polls and computers prefer them to Boise.

The Fiesta chooses next to replace Texas. Despite a narrow win over Colorado, the Cowboys will likely be available; Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech means it's very hard to see them winning next week, rivalry game or no. And I'm no longer projecting two Pac 10 teams as available, though I guess there's a remote chance Oregon stays in the top 14 after a loss to Oregon State in the Civil War.

Thanks to Oklahoma State getting into the mix, the Orange is able to snatch up the second Big Ten team. I like Penn State better than Iowa for that, though there are arguments either way. Rumor has it the Fiesta prefers Iowa if they take a Big Ten team, while the Orange prefers Penn State. Looking at a map, this is perfectly logical, and there's really not much between the two, even if Iowa beat Penn State.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and takes TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator (Jax)/Sun (El Paso): Pitt. UConn helped out the Big East bowl picture by beating Notre Dame, and there's no way ND beats Stanford. WVU could take this spot by beating Pitt in the Backyard Brawl.

Meineke/Charlotte: If WVU and Cinci beat Pitt, the Panthers would go here. But they won't be within a win of Pitt if Pitt beats WVU.

International Bowl/Toronto: USF. South Florida going to Canada for a bowl is somewhat amusing.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: By virtue of playing two non-BCS teams and losing to us (and presumably to WVU, but not Louisville), Rutgers moves down a spot. They stay ahead of UConn because UConn will likely lose to USF (even in Hartford in December).

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

If the season ended today, week 11

drothgery — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:54:33 -0000

We've still got the implausible title game with this week's BCS rankings, but at least impossible or highly implausible conference champs are no longer projected by taking the highest-ranked team this week. It seems like barring an upset, Floribama is 1/2 until the SEC title game.

If the season ended today, and assuming the highest-ranked team in each conference would be its champion, here's how I think the BCS would look (this is not a reflection on where I think things will be at the end of the year, or any kind of commmentary on future game; this is just slotting teams where they currently stand). The only 'projection' element is in filling the at-large slots.

Teams in italics are projected to win automatic bids. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #11 Oregon (P10) vs. #10 Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #13 Penn State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #7 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 Oklahoma State (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since the results last week assured they will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

Ohio State has won the Big Ten, regardless of what happens in the rest of the season. USC's loss means Oregon is now the highest-ranked Pac 10 team, and the projected conference champion.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. They've taken Big 12 teams in the past when they could, and now thant Oklahoma State is available, they take them. This won't happen because if the seemingly inevitable Floribama/Texas title game happens, Oklahoma State will likely be in the Fiesta. The Orange will be okay, though, as they'll be able to take Penn State/Iowa.

Boise State and Pitt get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU and Iowa get to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Ohio State beat Iowa and so won the Big Ten. USC lost so the highest-ranked Pac 10 team became likely actual champ Oregon. Lots of losses in the 9-17 range moved Oklahoma State into the top 14.

Bowl Projections, week 11

drothgery — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:03:41 -0000

Five top-14 teams lost this week, and LSU is SEC Iowa. In any case, little beyond the title game is as it would have been projected at the start of the year, or even last week.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State (at-large) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
Although 'Bama looked better this week, I'm not going to flip my SEC championship game winner pick every week.

Other conference champions:
Ohio State earned the Rose Bowl bid by beating Iowa. I'm still projecting Oregon as Pac 10 champ because they're a game up on everybody else. With more than one or two games left, I think I'd go with Stanford, but I don't think there's time for the Cardinal to catch the Ducks.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they have their division wrapped up, which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game (presumably to Clemson, as they have tiebreakers). Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting extremely tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. Both the polls and computers prefer them to Boise.

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Last week's carnage in the #9-#17 ranks, combined with Oklahoma State's win over Texas Tech, means the Cowboys will likely be available. And I'm no longer projecting two Pac 10 teams as available.

The Sugar chooses next to relace Florida. Since they've got dibs on another SEC team, and Alabama just might end up with an automatic spot by virtue of being in the top 4 even if they lose, they take the Tide here.

Thanks to Oklahoma State getting into the mix, the Orange is able to snatch up the second Big Ten team. I like Penn State better than Iowa for that, though there are arguments either way.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Pitt. I know a lot of people are still projecting Notre Dame here, but the Irish won't beat Stanford, and I've got to think they'd need a lot of luck to beat UConn. Of course, UConn's had bad luck all year. Anyway, 6-6 ND doesn't go here, and 7-5 ND is a reach.

Meineke/Charlotte: This one really depends on the ND/UConn game. If Notre Dame wins, they go here; otherwise, WVU does. I'm projecting WVU.

International Bowl/Toronto: ... and the Irish aren't in the International Bowl deal. So Rutgers goes here.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

St. Petersburg Bowl: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

If the season ended today, week 10

drothgery — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 22:54:48 -0000

This week's BCS standings re-introduce the implausible title game that we've had for most of the season, and right now the highest-ranked teams in some conferences seem unlikely to win them. But that's where we are.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Alabama (Autobid as #2)
Rose: #9 USC (P10) vs. #10 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #3 Texas (B12) vs. #4 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #11 Ohio State (at-large) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #13 Oregon (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Alabama are currently #1 and #2, but since the results this week assured they will play in the SEC championship game, this certainly won't happen.

USC and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively. USC won't win the Pac 10 because Oregon is up a game and owns the tiebreakers with USC. Iowa won't win the Big Ten because they'll lose to Ohio State next week. But they are the highest-ranked teams in their respective conferences as far as the BCS is concerned this week.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, except that Alabama is in the title game as well, so they select Ohio State. This won't happen because the SEC title game rematch won't happen.

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. Oregon is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and rematch with Miami). This won't happen because only Stanford could win the Pac 10 without Oregon losing another game.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Ohio State in the Sugar, which would be a good game, but won't happen. The Big East champ seems a near-lock for the Sugar, now that WVU is out of the mix and seems near-certain that a western team will be the non-BCS conference team that gets in.

Boise State, Pitt, and Miami get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Alabama returned to #2 thanks to the statistical rankings. Ohio State beat Penn State and so became the second Big Ten team. Oregon lost and dropped behind USC in the BCS rankings.

Bowl Projections, week 10

drothgery — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:46:51 -0000

I was hoping to leave the crazy projections behind with last week, but we got so many crazy actual results on the field this week that I'm not sure how to project things. Still, I'm going to try.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: Texas (Big 12) vs. Florida (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac 10) vs. Ohio State (B10)
Fiesta: Penn State (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. TCU (MWC/in top 8)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. USC (P10)

Here's the logic
BCS title game:
I'm finally bowing to the inevitable and projecting an SEC champion vs. Texas game. I don't like it, but it seems like nothing's going to derail it at this point. Right now I give the edge to Florida in the SEC.

Other conference champions:
By winning this week while Iowa lost, the Buckeyes just became Big Ten favorites again. I'm still projecting Oregon as Pac 10 champ even after losing this week due to the way tiebreakers fall out, and because Arizona is just starting the toughest part of their schedule.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ; they nearly have their division wrapped up (they're a game up on Miami and VT, have tiebreakers vs. VT, and only have to play Duke), which means the usual Virginia Tech wins the ACC story won't happen, and it's hard to see them losing the ACC title game. Though it's the ACC, so stranger things have happened.

Cinci is still projected to win the Big East but it's getting tempting to switch that to Pitt. TCU is guaranteed a bid as a non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8. The coaches and computers prefer them to Boise, though the Harris voters didn't as of last week..

The Fiesta chooses first to replace Texas. Since no Big 12 team is available, the Fiesta Bowl committee takes Penn State -- the best-travelling team available, without a moment's hesitation (the guess here is that PSU will win out and move ahead of Iowa after the Hawkeyes lose to Ohio State).

The Orange finds itself in a difficult position, with its options limitted to Cinci, TCU, and one of the available at-large teams. But no Big Ten or SEC teams are available due to the two team per conference limit (though odds are LSU -- and even two-loss Iowa -- are in the final top 14), no Big 12 teams are available because no one other than Texas even remotely resembles a top-14 team, an ACC team would be a rematch even if someone was eligible, Big East and non-BCS teams don't travel well, and a two-loss USC team is a bit of a question mark. Still, it's the best option available, so they go there.

The Fiesta then has to select an opponent, and TCU because geography says its prferable to Cinci.

And Alabama has to play Cinci in the Sugar Bowl.

Big East bowls

Gator/Sun: Notre Dame is likely eligible for this slot, and takes it. This annoys Pitt fans to no end, as the Panthers should have a better record and a head-to-head win over ND. In fact, if they beat WVU and ND handily and lose a close one to Cinci, as I currently expect, they're going to be upset they're not in the BCS.

Meineke/Charlotte: WVU's loss to USF puts them low enough in the selection order that Pitt goes here even with a somewhat worse fan base.

International Bowl/Toronto: ... but the 'eers don't drop far. WVU goes here.

PapaJohns.com Bowl/Birmingham: Rutgers. Looked good against UConn.

St. Petersburg Bowl: USF; it looks likely they'll be bowl eligible, and non-WVU Big East teams and CUSA teams can't be counted on to sell tickets

Filling some conference's unused slot, and winning their bowl game handily: UConn

staying home for the holidays: Syracuse

staying home for the holidays and firing the coach: Louisville

If the season ended today, week 9

drothgery — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:31:03 -0000

A few small shifts in the standings make the 'if the season ended today' for this week a lot more plausible.

BCS bowls:

BCS Title: #1 Florida (SEC) vs. #2 Texas (B12)
Rose: #8 Oregon (P10) vs. #4 Iowa (B10)
Fiesta: #11 Penn State vs. #6 TCU (autobid as highest-ranked non-BCS champ)
Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large; autobid as #3) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #10 Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. #12 USC (at-large)

Here's the logic:

Florida and Texas are currently #1 and #2, setting up the SEC vs. Texas that the pollsters have been declaring is inevitable since the begining of the season.

Oregon and Iowa go the Rose as Pac 10 and Big 10 champs, respectively.

Georgia Tech goes to the Orange as ACC champ.
Cincinnati is guaranteed a bid as Big East champ.
TCU is guaranteed a bid as the highest-ranked non-BCS confernce champ in the top 8.
Alabama is guaranteed a bid as a top-4 team from a BCS conference that is not the conference champion.

The Sugar first choses a team to replace Florida. They have exclusive rights to a second SEC team, and Alabama is guaranteed a slot, so they select Alabama.

The Fiesta then chooses a team to replace Texas. They'd have exclusive rights to another Big 12 team, but none are available. Since the Fiesta has long since proven that it will do what's best for the Fiesta Bowl, regardless of how that affects the other BCS bowls, it selects Penn State (even though it would be more logical to take USC and let Penn State go to the Orange, and you could make a decent case that Boise State deserves to go here).

The Orange has to pick Georgia Tech's opponent next. USC is the only remotely good fanbase available here (the other options are TCU, Cinci, Boise State, Pitt, and Utah).

The Fiesta must select either TCU or Cincinnati to play Penn State. Since TCU is much closer, they select TCU.

This leaves Cincinnati to play Alabama in the Sugar. Boise State, Pitt, and Utah get to grumble about the BCS not selecting them; LSU gets to grumble about the two team per conference rule.

Changes from last week: Texas moved up to #2 and completely reshuffled things. Oregon beat USC to become the presumptive Pac 10 champion. Still, no changes in which teams are playing in BCS bowls, just in matchups

Edit: Explained why Penn State is in the Fiesta Bowl.