I understand that KG missed the last part of last season due to injury, and the team was mysterious about the extent of the injury so there are now trust issues in the fan base.

I understand that since summer 2007 we've been told that our window was short because we built around 30-somethings.

I understand that we just got done watching our arch rivals hoist the championship trophy in our absence.

I understand these things.

But I ALSO understand that Kevin Garnett is arguably the best player of his generation.  That Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are certified Hall of Famers.  And that each are still in their EARLY 30s, younger now than some other historical championship squads (most notably the late-90s Bulls).

I also understand that Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and Glen Davis are all extremely young championship-tested players that made huge leaps last season. 

I also understand that Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels are pretty huge talent boosts to just add to the team off the bench, and that teamed with House and Davis give us the best bench we've had perhaps since 1986.

This team is friggin LOADED.  I am excited about this season in a way I've only ever been twice before...in 2003 when the Wolves added (old) Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell to at least give KG a hint of support, and in 2007 when it finally sunk in that KG, Pierce, and Allen were all on the same team.

I know people are concerned about KG's knee, and I am too, but until I know something for sure the other way I'm expecting Garnett to have his best season in a Celtics' jersey this year.  He's been playing with knee issues (at the very least tendonitis) for several years, and we have confirmed reports that he has been playing with bone spurs for at least a year.  Now, the spurs have been removed.  If the tendon issues really were due to rubbing from the spurs (which, all hyperbole aside, is probably the most likely explanation), and they really have been taken care of surgically...by the end of the year we could be looking at a fully healthy Kevin Garnett for the first time in years. 

A fully healthy KG that, oh by the way, is TICKED that he had to miss out on a legit chance of winning a ring last year.

A fully healthy KG that is ticked and is also, by the way, confident enough to guarantee TWO titles in the next two seasons to his owner.  Which is frankly unprecedented in his history, as far as I know.

Scary.  For everyone that isn't a Celtic. 

Paul Pierce is ticked.  Ray Allen is confident, and playing to show he's worthy of an extension. 

If I lived in Vegas, I would have been putting bits of money on the Celtics to win the title all summer.  Everything is a gamble, but in my mind they are clearly the best team in the league and have the biggest chance to win.  And camp starts tomorrow...I can't WAIT for this season to start.  Let's enjoy this, people.  Coming in and reading another "this team is old, so let's scale back our expectations" or "KG is done, (never mind that he was playing at all-world level just last year)" post every morning around here is getting old quickly.  Even older than our best players.   

Outside of the status of Kevin Garnett's knee, the most talked about Celtics matter of the last several weeks has been the second string point guard.  To whit...do we have one?  Why don't we have one?  We should get one...is Tyronn Lue available?  Are we REALLY going to roll with Marquis Daniels as our back-up PG?  If so, who backs up Pierce at SF?  Etc.

The thing is, though...we do already have a back-up point guard.  His name is Eddie House.  You know, the House that was the back-up point guard for the vast majority of 2007-08?  Then returned in that role as the back-up PG for the vast majority of 2008-09?  Yes, I know, each of the last two years we have signed a veteran big name point guard from the scrap heap in time for the playoffs...but if you look at it, did they really accomplish anything?

Sam Cassell and Stephon Marbury played roughly 20 games out of 82 in each of the last two seasons.  Both shot well under 40% in their games, had some trouble handling the ball against pressure, and had few games when they added to the win total.  Yes, I admit that at the time I felt more comfortable having an established vet on hand just in case but looking back, that's really all that they provided...a vague sense of comfort that the team had checked off a "need", but really not much else to the bottom line.

House, on the other hand, has been consistent.  We all know that he's really a short shooting guard that has learned to dribble, but we also know what to expect from him.  He'll bring the ball down the court reasonably well unless he's pressured by Lindsay Hunter, he'll get the team into the offense with an initial pass, then he'll play off the ball and knock down big shots.  And really, that's all that the Celtics have needed or likely will need from him this year.

With the addition of Marquis Daniels, the Celtics now have a ball-handling swingman in both the starting and reserve units that could legitimately bring the ball down the court and set the offense if the other team presses the point guards.  With Garnett and Ray Allen, the Celtics have two other non-point guards who have lots of experience running the offense for their respective teams.  And that isn't even including Rajon Rondo, who is getting more physically ready each year to play 35 - 40 minutes a game anyway.

The biggest area where I would be uneasy going into the season with just House is injury depth.  If Rondo goes down for an extended stretch and we have to start House, who would then be the back-up PG?  That's a legitimate concern.  But presumably the Celtics will have a lot of time before the trade deadline to evaluate Lester Hudson (if he makes the team), and if Rondo goes down they can look harder into acquiring another veteran PG.

But in the meantime, I think the team is set.  They have the same starter/back-up PG tandem that has served them well now through 128 wins and a title, they have a plethora of others that can help with the ball-handling and offense-running as needed, and they are starving now after watching outside in the rain while the Lakers and Magic feasted last June.  I, personally, think the Cs are more than ready to drive for 18 and I can't wait for it to get started.

One of the new theories that has been making its way into NBA analyst and media reports is the concept that perhaps it is minutes played, and not age, that determines a player's career arc.  This has become relevant because of the generation of superstars that came straight from high school to the league starting with Kevin Garnett in the mid-90s that are now entering their 30s.  As a Garnett fan, I have seen many recent articles taking it as all-but-a given that the minutes are the key, and since Garnett has already logged more minutes than guys like Larry Bird did in his career there are many ready to hand him his watch and cane as he inevitably slows down.

I guess my question is, though...when did it become a fact that minutes, not age, is the key factor?  I internet-searched to see if there was this body of evidence that I was unaware of, but all I could find were articles like this that mention the theory and then began to run with it as potential fact.  As far as I knew, the whole reason that this was a theory to begin with was that the NBA doesn't have much experience with players that entered the league as teenagers...so why is everyone so confidant now that they know that minutes determine career arc better than age?

Because if you look at their careers thus far it has been age, not games played, that has seemed to determine their production arcs.  After all, if it is minutes played that determines your "player age" then preps-to-pros stars should also hit their peak earlier in their careers, right?  Wrong.  A person just naturally hits their physical peak in their mid-to-late 20s, and the prep-to-pros guys have been no exception.  Kobe Bryant had his best statistical year at age 27, just like Kevin Garnett did.  Meanwhile, Tim Duncan (who played four years of college) peaked statistically at ages 25-26.  Michael Jordan, who played two years of college, hit his statistical peak from ages 24 - 27.  David Robinson, who played four years of college and did a two-year military tour before entering the NBA at age 24 still hit his statistical peak at age 28. 

In other words, the prep-to-pros look exactly like their college-going peers in their career arcs up to this point.  So outside of the fact that this new theory sounds kinda cool...why are we so certain that all of a sudden their career arcs are suddenly going to diverge?  Yes, Charles Barkley and Dominique Wilkins had declined and retired before they had played as many minutes as KG...and they were also 37 and 39 years old.  Unless there is something that I have missed, I am going to wait and see before I decide that the Celtics are on the edge of an age cliff with their roster.  Because as I recall, Hakeem Olajuwon peaked and dominated the league in his early 30s...Karl Malone won two MVPs after the age of 33...Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was named MVP and won four rings after the age of 32.  Players these days are actually healthier and playing LONGER than they did in the past, so pardon me if I require a bit more proof than "well, because someone else thought it might maybe work this way" before I believe something to be true.

In 2008 Kevin Garnett finished 3rd in the MVP vote, was voted 1st team All NBA, and was the Defensive Player of the Year.  He measured out as the best player in the entire NBA across a series of 7 advanced stats, and he measured out as the most valuable player in the NBA according to an adjusted +/- stat.  He did this for a team that absolutely dominated the regular season, then in the playoffs Garnett was the leading scorer and rebounder (as well as the advanced stats leader) on the team that won the championship.  In other words, whether you use accolades, stats, or postseason results Garnett was clearly among the top-5 players in the NBA at the worst and in the conversation for best overall in the 2007-08 season.  And this came on the heels of a career that was already Hall of Fame/one-of-the-best-of-this-era before the 2008 season even began.

Fast-forward to 2008-09.  With Garnett the Celtics rush out to a historic 27-2 start without seeming to press very hard, even as Garnett further subsumed his game for the sake of the team (or possibly to cope with his aching knee).  Somewhere around the doldrums of winter people noticed Garnett limping consistently right around the time that the Cs slowed down a bit, but they were still on pace for another 65+ wins and best record in the NBA before KG went down in February for essentially the season.  The remaining Cs pulled together and kept the team competitive, manfully only dropping to the #3 seed overall and playing competitive in the playoffs before bowing out in round 2.

Now, the point: I have never in my life seen such a big injury that had such an effect on the championship landscape for the entire league treated as such secondary news.  Yeah, the media always mentioned that KG was out but it was almost an afterthought like an "oh yeah, their also missing Garnett" kind of addition when it came to really discussing why the Cs struggled the whole playoffs and couldn't get past the Magic.  For instance, the Bulls gained credibility as an up-and-coming team because they took the Garnett-less Celtics to 7 games...do you think that the Jazz get ANY credit if they take a Kobe-less Lakers team to 7 games then lose?  Then, after the Lakers win, nobody outside of Boston even hints that maybe things might have been different if oh, I don't know, THE BEST PLAYER ON THE DEFENDING CHAMPIONS WASN'T OUT. 

And now, when ESPN is doing their "predictions" for this season, they predict the Cavs to win the East by a huge margin.  And in the Celtics' write-up they don't mention Garnett at all until the fourth paragraph, and then only to say "Sure, the C's need a healthy Kevin Garnett".  Then, in the next-to-last section, they point out that some think "KG is a 33-year-old with a bad knee".  That's it.  No other mention. 

And see, it doesn't matter whether you really think KG is not going to be the same player because of his knee or not...the point is, for any other superstar with KG's credentials THAT is THE story for the team (and really the NBA) this offseason.  Had it been Kobe and not KG that went out at game 55 last season, this offseason would be INUNDATED with Kobe stories...updates on his rehab, thoughts on his potential recovery, horror stories about what if he's not the same, character pieces about how the NBA is affected by his absence, the works.  That story would have maybe even threatened to knock "where will LeBron play in 2010?" off the top of the NBA home page once in awhile, and that is SAYING something. 

I know Garnett has more in common with Tim Duncan than the Kobes, LeBrons, or Shaqs of the league when it comes to how they are portrayed in the media.  I know that the casual fan probably sees the latter trio as easily the best because they are always the center of the story, whereas you actually have to pay some attention to know that Duncan and Garnett are right there with them on that top pedestal.  And if I was a Duncan fan this article would probably be about how ignored the injuries to Duncan and Manu Ginobili are when considering the Lakers' ascension to the top of the West over the last two years and how ridiculously overlooked the Spurs are when it comes to next season.  But as a Garnett fan the fact that his presence/absence is considered such a non-story when it comes to the landscape of the NBA is pretty irritating. 

On the other hand, it'll make it that much sweeter when the Celtics are celebrating #18 with the new Garden going crazy as Michelle Tafoya again tries to get some coherence from KG in a post-game interview...and the rest of the media is again forced to try to spin that them whiffing on all of their predictions was due to anything other than them simply not understanding a historic team when they see it.

Bear with me, because this will be long and will be comparing players to movie characters (which always requires some suspense of disbelief).  That said, I like watching epic movies and obviously I’m currently living and dying with this Celtics team.  After KG came back this weekend, I’ve seen a few threads on the message board or game comments trying to capture exactly what he means to this team.  And in those same threads, like always, I see a few Cs fans slightly offended that KG gets so much attention/credit that they feel should maybe go to the Captain.  So I was trying to figure out a way besides numbers-crunching to put a finger on exactly what it is that each player brings to the table, and I hit upon a variation of an article idea I’d had last season involving KG and another player.  But I think it fits for Pierce as well, so I figured I’d run it up the CB flagpole and see if it gets saluted or shot full of holes.

Achilles: Obviously Achilles is a legendary literary figure, but for this comp I’m going to go with the Achilles from the movie Troy.  Achilles was just a beast of a fighter.  He would go to war with the army, but at his heart he was a 1-on-1 gladiator.  He was the army’s champion…all of the other soldiers knew that if need be, he would go up against the best that the enemy had to offer 1-on-1 and likely take him down.  For the enemy, his very name was intimidating… “Oh, no!  Achilles is here, we might be doomed!”  For his own side, having Achilles around gave them added security that helped them fight better, and since the opponent was focused so much on Achilles’ heroism it gave them an advantage fighting against a somewhat distracted foe.

For this Celtics team, Pierce is their Achilles.  Enemies and friends alike know that for the past decade he has been a solo warrior, but that he has taken on all comers and 1-on-1 he has proven up to the test.  Pierce can do many things well on the court that help a team, but at his heart he is a scorer that can’t really be contained when he’s feeling it.  So when the Cs need a lot of points in a hurry and the announcers start playing the Superman music (or when KG starts humming it), Pierce is the one that can best answer that bell.  Plus, when you factor in that unlike movie Achilles (who was really like a mercenary) Pierce is the longest tenured Celtic and the Captain, he not only helps the team feel short-term confident that he can come through but the team also knows that he will always be there representing for them when the chips are down. 

William Wallace: Those that saw Braveheart know that William Wallace was a bit different than Achilles.  Wallace was also a fearsome 1-on-1 fighter, but at his heart he was more about inspiring his followers to fight their best than he was about fighting on his own.  In my initial article idea I was going to go with Maximus from Gladiator here because he was also a great general who could fight, but while Maximus led his army with brilliant tactics Wallace led his people with his heart.  While both Maximus and Achilles led armies that conquered in the field, Wallace led his followers like a family in an uprising to topple an impossibly strong foe.  He used dirty tricks, taunts, whatever was needed to give his side an advantage.  And he led his followers with a passion bordering on insanity, screaming at them and cajoling them until they would do things completely outside of their comfort zone and fight suicidal battles just because he made them feel it.  Heck, just watching the movie during one of his speeches was almost enough to make me get up and attack the first tyranny I saw yelling “Free-dom”!

For these Celtics, KG is William Wallace.  Over the last decade he has put together an individual resume that can stand against any player in history, but for him it is always more about his team than it is his individual glory.  He leads vocally, from the front, screaming at friends and enemies alike with an almost insane intensity that is so over the top that from the outside he gets some criticism for either being fake (no one could REALLY be that passionate) or crazy (there’s something WRONG with anyone that demonstrably passionate).  But you know what?  His teammates, the ones that are in there with him, would run through a brick wall if he told them to.  The Celtics’ commitment to defense…while Thibs and Doc can teach the techniques, KG’s will is what took a crew of historically not-enthusiastic defenders and formed it into a historically strong unit.  We may have all learned the word “UBUNTU” last season from Doc, but KG’s been living that with his team for his whole career.  And there’s no stat for “making teammates better” or “infusing confidence by mere presence”, but if there were one KG would lead the league in it.  This is how a former teammate (with nothing to gain by complimenting him) described what it was like to have KG on his side:

“That's why I was so successful my rookie year,'' said (Randy) Foye, who has sputtered in the season-plus (since Garnett left).  "No matter what happened, if I made a mistake, I'd look at him and he'd go [Foye balls up a fist and pumps it], like 'It's all right. Keep your head up.'

"It makes you feel better. It'd be like that for anyone in their work, if there was a legend who pumped you up. For a young player, that just boosted my confidence. Sometimes, in my rookie year, I felt like an All-Star out there because he let me do what I wanted and when I got it going, he let me go.'

In games, Foye said, it was like having your big brother there to hold your coat in a schoolyard fight. "There was a swagger," he said. "KG would come out and hit a shot, and it was like, 'Everybody, we're in this together. I'm patrolling it, but everybody who's got a white jersey on, we're in it together. " 

Pierce is one of the best Achilles-types in the NBA, but there are others with Kobe, LeBron, and Wade as the obvious ones.  KG, though, has got to be the most Wallace-like player in today’s NBA by a big margin which makes him a bit unique and maybe garners him a bit more attention (even though he tries with all of his might to deflect as much as he can back to the team).  But for the team itself, I don’t think any of that matters.  Pierce is the strong sword arm for this team, while Garnett is the shield and the fighting spirit.  Among Celtics fans there is no need for competition between Pierce and Garnett, because they each have their role and fulfill it to the utmost.  Without either of them the team would be entirely different, and would suffer for the loss.  With them, we just might be in the midst of an NBA dynasty.  And for me, that’s better than any epic movie I’ve ever seen.

Once you get past the blasphemy of comparing anyone to the Legend, the similarity in the statistical impacts of Larry Bird and LeBron James through their first six seasons is pretty interesting.  Most of the media has been caught up in trying to proclaim LeBron the next Jordan or the next Magic...perhaps he's really the next generation of Bird.  A 6-9 small forward that could score from everywhere, rebound like a power forward and pass like a guard...that description would have fit Bird before LeBron was even born. 

Here is the full article, which looks at box score numbers as well as a variety of the newer "advanced" stats to build the comparison.

This article is part of a mini series comparing old school Legends to current greats.  The first two compared Kareem vs Shaq and Isiah Thomas vs Chris Paul.

Intro:  As any who have read my posts here know, Garnett is the one that brought me to this table.  He has been my favorite player for a decade, so I am both more biased and more informed than most of you about his strengths and weaknesses as a player.  KG finally being on a team with the talent to compete, and then actually going out and winning…and winning the right way, with a strong TEAM dedicated to unselfishness, defense and hard work…that was one of the highlights of my year.  It was also no surprise to me, as I expected nothing less.  So without further ado, I conclude this All Star Break appreciation series with Mr. Kevin Maurice Garnett.  The Kid.  The Big Ticket.  KG.

Skills: Kevin Garnett is in the argument for best all-around player in NBA history.  Let that marinate for a minute, then consider how that could be.  Garnett is the best rebounder of this generation, using his length, athleticism and timing to clean the glass.  Garnett is arguably the best defensive player of this generation, combining the physical gifts mentioned above with an almost personally fierce desire to prevent both his man and the entire opposing team from scoring.  Garnett is one of the better passing big men in NBA history, with the ball-handling and court vision to have once been his team’s emergency point guard in a playoff series.  And Garnett is one of the better scorers of his generation, mixing a consistent jumpshot with good post moves, a strong face-up game and an unblockable fade-away to keep himself among the league’s leading scorers despite that being arguably the weakest part of his game.  Finally there are the intangibles, where KG is considered one of the best leaders in the league, one of the most intimidating defensive presences in the league, and one of the most unselfish superstars ever that has always been dedicated to making his teammates better.  Put that all together and you’ve got a package that very few players can top.

Team accomplishments/teammates: In his 12 pre-07 seasons, Garnett’s teams compiled a record of 501 – 451, an amazing win percentage for such poor caliber teams.  Only 3 times in 12 years did KG play next to an All Star that season (Tom Gugliatta in ’97, Wally Szczerbiak in ’02, and Sam Cassell in ’04) and each of the 3 were 1-time All Stars that were either injured or off the team (or both) within a year.  The teams that Garnett played on tended to be KG and not a lot else, but despite that KG’s teams still made the playoffs in the stacked West in 8 straight seasons between his rookie season and when the wheels came off in ’05. 

Garnett led four 50-win teams, but his best team was the ’04 squad that won 58 games and was a legitimate title contender before injuries helped fizzle them out in the WCF against the Shaq/Kobe/Karl Malone/Gary Payton Lakers.  With starting PG Sam Cassell and back-up PG Troy Hudson both injured, Garnett was forced into playing PG for large stretches in that series.  Garnett was amazing that postseason, averaging 24 points, 15 boards and 5 assists over the 18 games.  That wasn’t surprising, though, as KG made a habit of putting up video game numbers in the playoffs for the Wolves.  From the 19-point/11-rebound/9-assist averages of the ’00 postseason to the 24-point/19-rebound/5-assist averages of ’02 to the 27-point/16-board/5-assist averages of ’03…him raising his game in the playoffs was a pretty standard thing.

Stats and Awards: Garnett’s pre-2007 list would be way too long if we listed them all, so let’s just touch on the highlights: 2004 MVP, 10-time All Star, 8-time All NBA (3-time 1st team), 8-time All Defense (6-time 1st team).  Garnett led the league in total points scored and rebounds in ’04, the first to do that since Wilt Chamberlain way back before the NBA/ABA merger.  KG is one of only 5 players in history to lead the NBA in rebounds 4 times (Wilt/Russell/Mo Malone, Rodman the others).  If you look purely at offense, Garnett joins Kobe, Iverson, and TMac as the only players in the top-10 in points and top-15 in assists since 2000.  If you look purely at defense, Garnett joins Ben Wallace and Shawn Marion as the only players in the top-15 in both blocks and assists since 2000.  KG is alone as the only player in the top-15 in points, rebounds, assists, steals, AND blocks in the 2000s.  As far as advanced stats go, Garnett led the league in PER twice, led the league in Win Shares once, has led the league in every +/- stat several times over his career, and has been tabbed by both Wins Produced and Wins Above Replacement Player as the best player of the 2000s.

Great Player Comparison: For Garnett’s contemporaries, I chose 3 of the best power forwards of this or any generation: Tim Duncan, Chris Webber and Dirk Nowitzki.  Each of the 4 play PF in different ways, ranging from almost center to almost small forward, and all 4 helped re-define the way the position is played.  But since each had such variance in career situations (Webber’s injuries, Dirk’s and KG’s early career adjustments), I decided it’d be more accurate to compare them based on their best single seasons at their absolute peaks.

That 1-year snapshot highlighted each player at their very best, and epitomized what makes them great.  Dirk is the most efficient scorer of the crew, dominating the true shooting percentage, offensive win shares, and offensive rating categories but having a weaker all-around game and weaker defensive numbers.  Webber has the strong all-around game with high marks in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks…but his efficiency was much lower than the rest of the crew and he also had some injury issues which made him a notch lower overall (lowest PER, lowest win shares, lowest Offense/defense rating differential). 

Then, you get to the main event: Duncan and Garnett.  Like always, the sum of their numbers is always just about exactly the same.  In their peak seasons both won MVPs and led their teams to 58-24 records.  On the court, Duncan was a bit better as an interior defender and low-post scorer (slight advantages in blocks, FG%, and free throws drawn) while Garnett was a bit better all-around (more rebounds, assists, steals).  In the advanced stats, KG scored a bit higher marks to lead the group in PER, Win Shares, and Defensive Rating while Duncan took him out in offensive rating and offensive win shares.  In short, comparing Garnett and Duncan at their absolute peaks yields two very even players.  In a perfect world, these two will get to face each other at least one time head-to-head in an NBA Finals before they fall off so that we can finally see this matchup on the big stage...where it was meant to be.

Place on the 07-08 Celtics and beyond:

“Losses”: KG has definitely adapted his game since he’s been on the Celtics.  Some believe this is due to age, but I honestly believe it is mainly for the same reasons that Pierce and Allen modified their’s: to help the team win.  On the court, Garnett no longer is the offensive centerpiece that he was when he broke Larry Bird’s run of consecutive seasons averaging 20 points/10 boards/5 assists…on these Celtics, Rondo and Pierce are the ones with the ball in their hands the most, initiating the offense.  Likewise, because Pierce/Rondo are penetrators and Perk is only effective near the rim, KG relies even more upon his jumper now than he did in Minnesota which makes many of his long-time critics feel vindicated that he is “just a jump-shooter” and not a true offensive impact player.

Off-the-court, Garnett has lost his status as a lovable loser.  While this is a great thing, it also means that the hate and criticism has come out of the woodworks for him more-so than for his teammates.  The exact same fire and intensity that made him a fan favorite as an underdog has been getting him excoriated as a cowardly/frontrunning bully by many fans this season. 

Garnett also lost his home-town hero fan-base.  Duncan and Kobe were home grown for the teams they won titles on, so Spurs and Lakers fans would go through walls for them.  Boston, though, is (rightfully) Pierce’s city.  So while Celtics fans appreciate that Garnett helped them win a title, they just aren’t as invested in him and frankly may be irritated that Garnett’s shine might come at the expense of their Captain.  As such, there are very few people beating the drum that Garnett deserves mention with the true All-Time greats of the league.  Keep in mind that in NBA history there are only 22 players that have both an MVP and a championship…exactly 4 are playing today: Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, and KG.  Most already have Shaq and Duncan in the pantheon, and there is a HARD push from Laker nation to get Kobe included as well.  Not so much for KG, though, whereas had he been in Pierce’s shoes for the past decade building up love and admiration from the Boston faithful and really showing what he could do at max output…I believe he’d be getting a similar push from the East as Kobe is getting from the West.  Maybe this is a small loss in the big scheme of things, but it’s one that I notice.

“Gains”: On the flips side, KG has also gained a tremendous amount through this 1.5 years.  By winning a title, he is forever separated from the Karl Malone/Charles Barkley/Patrick Ewing category of “greats that couldn’t win the big one”.  This put an absolute floor on his legacy of no worse than top-25 All time, and since he still has more gas in the tank he now has room to start moving up the legacy list.  Also, because he won his title with the Celtics, he has been able to enjoy the patronage and endorsement of a legend like Bill Russell, who is probably the one player that KG would admire above all others. 

On the court, Garnett has owned his offensive shift from initiator to finisher and become a more efficient scorer.  He has been operating at career-best shooting percentages these last two seasons, has set a new career-high in offensive rating, and has to be among the league leaders in the uncounted stat of picks-that-lead-to-open-shots-for-teammates.  His consistent jumper teams with Allen’s to keep the floor opened up for Rondo’s/Pierce’s drives or Perk’s/Powe’s dunks.  More importantly, because KG no longer has to do EVERYTHING for his team, he is able to specialize in his favorite area…defense.  He has shown in Boston that not only is he a great team defender, but he also can clamp down on the very best as a 1-on-1 defender as well.  I’m sure that KG has his Defensive Player of the Year trophy right next to his MVP award on his mantle, and I’m not convinced that he doesn’t believe the DPoY to be the higher honor.

Bottom line: Garnett is one of the best players of this or any other generation, and is now what he always wanted to be above all else: a champion.  As KG asked his critics just after kissing the Leprechaun on a Boston championship night… “What are you gonna say now?  What can you say now?”

Intro: Next up is the Captain, aaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnddddd the Truth, Paul Pierce.  Pierce is the member of the current team that has paid the most Celtic dues, and thus gets the most Celtic love.  Pierce has spent his entire career in green, playing excellent basketball with very little supporting talent and doing his best to keep the Cs on the map almost single-handedly.  When this current team disbands, Pierce is the one that will have a guaranteed place in the VIP section of Celtics lore.  He has earned the right to be the Captain by himself, and to have his name called last in the intros.  And the entire country is starting to get a glimpse of what Celtics fans have known for years: Pierce is one of the best swingmen of this generation, and can look any of his competition directly in the eye and tell them he’s the best…then go out and make his case on the court.

Skills: Paul Pierce is in the argument as the best pure scorer in Celtics history.  Let that marinate for a minute as you consider just who he is competing with for that crown, then consider that he is also so much more than that.  Pierce is one of the best all-around wings in the game.  His size and strength make him a strong rebounder, and one of the best at drawing fouls/finishing shots that the game has.  Pierce is also very good off the dribble, able to use his handle to patiently get to the rim at will using angles/strength/fakes to keep his opponent off balance.  Forget about switching on the pick-and-roll, as Pierce will ruthlessly take advantage of the mismatch EVERY time.  I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him miss that back-to-the-free-throw-line-then-turnaround-jumper over a PG that was unlucky enough to be switched onto him.

Pierce is also a good passer, able to set up his teammates off the dribble-drive for spoon-fed finishes at the rim or wide open jumpers.  Pierce has always been an underrated defender as well, with excellent physical tools and tenacity that sometimes had to be subsumed on that end of the court so that he could preserve energy to carry an un-talented team on offense.  But when locked in, Pierce can handle just about any wing in the NBA 1-on-1 and make them have to work for it.  Finally, Pierce is an ultra competitor with more toughness than most and the will to always want the ball late.  Add that up, and you’ve got a total package that very few NBA swingmen can top.

Team accomplishments/teammates: In his 9 pre-07 seasons, Pierce’s teams compiled a record of 321 – 385, a deceptively low mark due to his lack of teammate support.  Over his 9 years, only twice did Pierce play next to an All Star (Antoine Walker in ’02 and ’03).  The teams that Pierce played on tended to be Pierce/Walker, then a big drop off to role players (or, later on, Pierce by himself and then a dropoff to role players).  Despite that, Pierce’s teams still made the playoffs in 4 of his 9 seasons.

Pierce’s best team was the ’02 squad that won 49 games and, led by Pierce and Walker went all the way to the ECF before losing to the Nets in 6.  That team did not have championship talent in any way, but Pierce willed that team through the playoffs by averaging 25 points, 9 boards and 4 assists with almost 3 combined steals/blocks per game.  The following season Pierce was even more incredible in the postseason, averaging 27 points, 9 boards and 7 assists with 3 combined steals/blocks in helping the team get to the 2nd round.

Stats and Awards: Pre 2007 Pierce was a 5-time All Star, twice made All NBA team (3rd team in both ‘02 and ’03), and three times finished top-15 in MVP votes (best finish 11th in ’02 and ’03).  Pierce has 5 top-10 finishes in points/game (best 3rd in ’02), and led the league in total points in ’02.  Pierce has been a foul-shooting monster, with 6 top-10 finishes in free throws made and attempthed (including leading the NBA in ’03).  He has 5 top-10 finishes in steals, and was 2nd in steals/game in 2000.    He also has 3 top-10 finishes in 3-ptrs made.  In the advanced stats, Pierce has three top-10 finishes in PER (best 7th, ’03), was 10th in the league in Offensive Win Shares in ’05, was 4th in Defensive Win Shares in ’02, and has 2 top-10 finishes in Total Win Shares (best 5th, ’02).

Great Player Comparison: For Pierce’s contemporaries, I chose 3 of the best swingmen of this generation: Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter.  All four of this crew are do-everything scoring wings, descendants of the Jordan style of play.  Here is how their stats compare up through 2006-07, keeping in mind that Kobe and TMac entered the league 2 and 1 seasons before Pierce/Carter but were less productive early coming straight from HS.

Summary: Pierce leads the whole group in rebounds, threes, free throws made/attempted, and steals.  He is very competitive with the group in the other categories, including scoring in which he is only 1ppg behind Kobe for group lead.  Speaking of Kobe…
Kobe has become the standard bearer for swingmen in this generation, and we are all aware of the controversy Pierce caused last summer by saying that he was better than Kobe.  But really…was he wrong?  Head-to-head over their career, Pierce has played Kobe to a standstill.  Meanwhile, Dr. Dave Berri has some very interesting stances on Pierce vs. Kobe over their careers, based on his Wins Produced stat.  Here are a few links: Kobe myths, Pierce-vs-Kobe-vs-old-MJ, and Kobe myths playoffs edition.

These links tell us that, according to at least one advanced stat system, Pierce HAS been as good as Kobe Bryant through their careers.  And on top of that, Pierce has been BETTER than Kobe in the playoffs over their careers.  Take it as you will, but this should be food for thought for those that tried to make fun of The Captain for speaking his truth last summer.

Place on the 07-08 Celtics and beyond:

“Losses”: In a lot of ways, Pierce has had to change his game the least to accommodate the new Celtics order.  He definitely has given up a few shots per game, which means that his volume scoring has gone down.  But stylistically, he still is the primary wing offense initiator and has the green light to take over offensively when he chooses.  The Paul Pierce that I see now is the same one that I saw next to Walker in 01 in terms of style, he just has fewer shots but more substance.  He has taken his “losses” and turned tem into virtues, embracing unselfishness and setting up his teammates to take those shots instead.

“Gains”: In many ways, Pierce is also the Celtic that has gained the most so far through this 1.5 years.  With his Ring and Finals MVP, Pierce’s Celtics career is now validated and that combines with his numbers to put him in a VERY exclusive Celtics VIP club headed by Bill Russell and Larry Bird.  Also, with his Game 7 duel with LeBron and his big Finals moments Pierce has played his way into a national respect that he never had before.  On the court, the obvious gain for Pierce is that he is able to put more energy into defense since he doesn’t have to carry the offense which has made him a much better impact player despite the lesser numbers.  Also, he is more efficient on offense with career-bests in true shooting percentages and offensive rating over these last two seasons.  

Bottom line: Pierce is one of the best swing men of his generation, arguably the best pure scorer in Celtics history, and is more than just a “member of the Big Three” as the media tends to lump him…as Shaq told us, Paul Pierce is the mutha-*#$%## Truth!

Intro: As I hang around the various Celtics boards, I think that we all are guilty of taking for granted just how amazing Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are as basketball players.  Some of it isn’t our fault, because the majority of their history came separately on different teams, so most of the folks on here now have only followed at most one of the three in depth over their careers pre-2007.  Because of that, many of us mainly have only what we’ve seen this last 1.5 years by which to judge them as players…and that isn’t enough.  We all say “they had to sacrifice” in order to make this team work, but I don’t think that really resonates with our gut when we go to evaluate them as players.  When talking about the Celtics vs. other teams the national media almost always lumps them in as a “Big Three” while giving the Kobes, LeBrons, and Duncan’s solo star billing…this tends to make many of us forget that, on their own, Allen/Pierce/Garnett are all All-time greats in their own rights (and in some cases as good/better than some of the other players that get more attention).

So to that end, I’m going to do a (long) post on each of the 3.  I’m going to talk about their strengths/weaknesses, their individual and team accomplishments pre-2007, what they’ve given up and gained in joining the Celtics in 2007, and their place in history.  And I’m going to start off with our own Jesus Shuttlesworth, Mr. Walter Ray Allen.

Skills: Ray Allen is arguably the best pure shooter in NBA history.  Let that marinate for a minute, then consider that he is also so much more than that.  Allen’s long-range jumper is a thing of beauty, with excellent form, a quick release and metronomic consistency.  As Allen once pointed out in a commercial, when his jumper is on…it is ON.  But in addition to the jumper, Allen is also one of the more athletic swingmen in the NBA as evidenced by his participation in the 1997 NBA Slam Dunk Contest.  Allen’s preparation and physical fitness are legendary.  He has adequate ball-handling skills for a SG, which combined with the threat of his jumper and his athleticism combine to make Allen a good scorer going to the rim as well.  Finally, Ray is an ultra competitor with ice water in his veins when it comes time to take the big shot.  In short, Allen is one of the best shooting guards of his generation and one of the most versatile of the “pure shooters” in NBA history.

Team accomplishments/teammates: In his 11 pre-07 seasons, Allen’s teams compiled an end-season record of 427 – 443.  Allen was always one of the top team options on his teams, and basically had 2 careers: 1) Milwaukee Bucks, with Glen Robinson and Sam Cassell as his running mates and 2) Seattle Supersonics, with Rashard Lewis and role players as his sidekicks.  Allen’s teams made the playoffs in 4 of those 11 years, 3 times in Milwaukee and once in Seattle.  Allen’s teams tended to have offensive talent, but over his 11 years only 5 times did a teammate make the All Star Team next to him (Vin Baker in 97 and 98 {Allen’s first 2 seasons}, Robinson in 01 and 02, and Lewis in ’05).

Allen’s best two teams were the ’01 Bucks and the ’05 Sonics, both of which went 52 – 30.  The 01 Bucks, led by Allen/Robinson/Cassell went to the ECF and lost in 7 games to the 76ers.  The 05 Sonics made the 2nd round in the stacked Western Conference led by Allen with Lewis as his lieutenant, but bowed out to the Spurs in 6.  Allen was ridiculous in both of those playoffs runs, averaging roughly 26 points, 5 assists and 4 boards in 29 playoff games over those 2 seasons. 

Stats and Awards: Allen was a 7-time All Star, twice made All NBA team (3rd team in ’01, 2nd team in ’05), and twice was top-15 in MVP votes (best finish 9th in ’05).  Allen is 2nd All time in 3-ptrs made (Reggie Miller), is 6th All time in free throw percentage, and has four top-10 finishes in season points/game (best 6th, ’07).  In the advanced stats, Allen has twice finished top-10 in True Shooting Percentage (best 2nd 01); 3-times top-10 in Offensive Rating (best 2nd 01), 5-times top-10 in Offensive Win Shares (best 1st, 01) and once finished top-10 in total Win Shares (3rd, 01).

Great Player Comparison: For Allen’s contemporaries, I chose 3 of the best pure shooter/scorers of the past 25 years: Reggie Miller, Glen Rice, and Allen Houston.  Here is how the stats comparison of their first 11 years looks on basketball-reference: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=millere01&y1=1998&p2=allenra02&y2=2007&p3=ricegl01&y3=2000&p4=houstal01&y4=2004

The summary: Allen leads the whole group in scoring, 3s made, FT%, assists, and steals.  He is competitive with them across the board, leading the group in PER but trailing Miller in Win Shares and Offensive/Defensive Rating differential.

Place on the 07-08 Celtics:

“Losses”: Allen has been at worst the first among equals as a team option since early in his career, and for much of his Seattle career he was both the primary scorer and the primary offensive engine for the team.  He was a legitimate 25-point/5-rebound/5-assist threat for many seasons of his career, and in this role he led two 50-win teams into the postseason.  For these Celtics, though, he has been shunted to a 3rd option on offense who is almost purely a shooter…he very rarely gets the chance to create offense unless it is with the 2nd team.  Allen has ceded primary offense initiator role to Pierce and Rondo, and even the secondary initiator role to KG.  As such, Allen has gone through long stretches of not getting nearly the touches/shots that he’s used to, which can negatively affect a shooter/scorer.  His counting numbers are down across the board, giving up a good portion of the numbers that made him unique.  Also, he has given up the “Big Dawg” role in his legacy…a lot of his legacy will be built on his role on championship teams, and as the 3rd option he no longer will be compared historically with the Kobe Bryants of the world (which has to gall him, since he has always had a fierce competition with Bryant since they came out in the same draft class in ’96).

“Gains”: The obvious: Allen has at least one championship ring and the possibility for more, completing his great player resume.  He has the ring that Reggie and Houston never got, and he’s playing a larger role on the Celts than Rice did for the Lakers which gives Allen a leg-up in the “All-time best shooter/scorer” rankings.  Numbers-wise, in trading in his volume stats Allen’s efficiency is through the roof (he is on pace to shatter his career-highs in FG%, FT%, True Shooting %, and Offensive Rating).  This efficiency dramatically helps spread the floor for the Celtics’ offense, and is his single-biggest contribution to the squad.  Also, his clutch shooting, clutch free throws, and athleticism/intelligence on defense make him invaluable to the team in ways that show up primarily in intangible stats like +/- or, more importantly, in the Wins/Losses categories.

 Bottom line: Allen is one of the best shooting guards of his generation, one of the best shooter/scorers of All Time, and is more than just a “member of the Big Three” as the media tends to lump him…Ray Allen has game!

I was reading the comments in the game recap for the Mavs game, when I saw this quote from TheAncientRivalry:

"Was anyone else unimpressed by KG picking up a cheap foul and tech and pretty much taunting dirk? I dont know, It was somewhat childish, dirk scored on KG twice in a row and then KG pretty much through a temper tantrum and was a non factor the rest of the way…I couldnt help but roll my eyes when reggie started giving KG all this credit for the comeback…if anyone else in the league had 19/15/14 its all youd be hearing about..not KG getting up into a guy whos known to back down"

The bolded sections touch on some things I wanted to hear some opinions on, but I was afraid it'd get buried if I replied in the recap so I decided to give it it's own blog.  The topic I'm curious about is what part you believe head games can play in some outcomes.  As AncientRivalry points out, Dirk had been scoring relatively easily all game when KG went nuts.  Up to that point (2:15 left in 3rd Q) Dirk had 31 points on 11-for-18 shooting from the field and the Celtics were flat as a team, then after KG's "tantrum" Dirk went 0-for-7 over the next 12 minutes of the game and the Celtics came to life. 

Now, I have rightly seen Leon Powe's 4th quarter defense praised here, and I also remember Big Baby and Pierce taking a few turns on Dirk during that stretch as well.  They basically took away the paint and forced Dirk to shoot jumpers, and he couldn't knock them down.  Excellent.  BUT, I will say that IMO many of the shots that Dirk missed in the 4th are shots that he often makes when he's comfortable.  And there-in brings me back to the question of if KG's head games factor in here.

Because, as AncientRivalry points out, Dirk has been known to back down when challenged physically.  And during KG's stalking/bumping/antagonizing of Dirk when he picked up the fouls, KG pulled out the defense move that I can only really remember him doing often against Chris Bosh (another guy he seems to intimidate): KG goes deep into a defensive stance, all the way up in the opponent's personal space.  It's actually terrible defense, as if the player drives at all it's an automatic foul since he's so close.  But it's almost a contemptuous type of stance, like he's telling them that he has so little respect for their offensive game that he can get up in their skin and there's nothing they can do about it.  I know there's a picture of him doing it to Bosh somewhere, so let me see if I can find it...(long search)...OK, found it.  Here is what I was trying to describe.

via d.yimg.com

KG has done that particular overly aggressive stance twice to Bosh this season and now once to Dirk, and this was the situation/result each time:

1) 11/10/08, the infamous "KG pointed at Calderon" game.  KG pulled out that stance on Bosh right around the same time that he pointed at Calderon, with the Celts down by 6 points with 1 minute left in the third quarter.  After those incidents Bosh and Calderon made a COMBINED 1 field goal for the rest of the game with Bosh throwing up a goose egg.  Pierce gets fired up has a huge scoring 4th quarter.  Celtics win by 6.

2) 1/12/09: Raptors up 2 points with 8 minutes left in the 4th, Bosh leading the way with 16 points.  KG comes into the game, gets aggressive, pulls out the "you're beneath me" defensive stance and Bosh proceeds to go without a field goal for the rest of the fourth quarter and overtime.  Pierce gets fired up and has a huge scoring game.  Celtics win.

3) 2/12/09: Mavs up 7 points with 2:16 left in the 3rd Q of a game when the Cs had been listless.  Dirk has 31 points and is on fire.  KG gets way into Dirk's personal space and (maybe) his head, does the "you're beneath me" thing, and Dirk goes 0-for-7 on jumpers that he often makes for the next 12 minutes of the game.  Pierce gets fired up and has a huge scoring 4th quarter.  Celtics win.

Now, the obvious difference is that in those two Raptors examples KG was still defending Bosh afterward whereas against the Mavs it was mainly Powe on Dirk.  But game situation, opponent caliber, and possible opponent intimidation index were all exactly the same.  And the results (both for the individual opponent and the game) were the same in all 3 cases, almost verbatim: KG's opponent disappears, Pierce gets fired up and scores a lot of points, Celtics win.

So, after this book that I wrote (never intended it to be this in depth), my question to you is: do you buy it?  Do you agree with AncientRivalry that it was just a KG temper tantrum and that KG didn't factor into what came after?  Or do you think that Reggie Miller was right, that KG intentionally went off and got into Nowitzki's head to energize his teammates and deflate his opponents?