A week or so ago I made a FanPost about how I found that Elvis Andrus performed even better against elite pitchers than he did against the league as a whole during the 2011 season. That post can be found here: http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/4/1/2919280/which-batters-experience-success-against-elite-pitching-focus-on#storyjump

The consensus from y'all was that my study used too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from.

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Around these parts, and throughout the MLB community in general, Elvis Andrus is seen as a treasure and a pleasure to watch. He is seen this way thanks to his remarkably young age, his speed, and his defensive prowess. His ability at the plate, however, is not perceived as being anything special. His stat line at the plate is usually seen as mediocre at best. But I assert that he actually has some hidden value at the plate that most are not aware of in that he does not experience a drop-off against elite pitchers. In fact, he thrives against them.

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I really hate to make this a FanPost, because it reveals my incompetence when it comes to programming and how to use databases. Also, I've already brought this up in a couple of comments in other threads.

Anyways... I have a study that I want to do, and I'm looking for statheads out there who can help me go about this the right way. I'm a political science major... not an engineer or statistics or any kind of analytical major that would know how to use spreadsheets and databases. I do know a bit about SPSS, however.

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I've been more of a lurker the past few months, and before that I was generally looked down upon. If I can write this story, then no telling what some of you more veteran LSBers could say.

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/white-sox-shopping-carlos-quentin.html

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Chris Davis has been terrible at the plate this season, I think we all understand that. He is going to have to produce far beyond his current level of production for him to have any kind of value for this team. The question is whether or not he can reach that level of production; something even remotely similar to his lines at AAA. My initial question to you is simple: do you like what Nelson Cruz is doing for this team right now? You probably do. I am going to use Nelson Cruz as the paradigm of hope for Chris Davis' future in Major League Baseball.

I think that the complaining about Chris Davis' current incompetence at the plate by fans is probably at a greater level than for any Rangers player in my lifetime. I think that the level of disdain towards Davis is partially due to the fact that the Rangers are winning, so more people are paying attention. Also, I think some of it can be attributed to myths about the necessity of offensive production from certain positions, and to the fact that he is a big, intimidating looking person at the plate, so people notice when somebody like that fails repeatedly.

However, I am tired of so much complaining for different reasons than the ones stated above. I am tired of it because I started thinking of the last time there was a lot of unhappiness with one of our young players who was thought to be a potential slugger at  the major league level. Nelson Cruz came to mind. Remember the seasons when Cruz would be mashing at AAA, we would call him up during a series in Kansas City, he would hit a couple home runs in KC to get us all excited, and then he would proceed to fail? I do not think we would be in such a good spot today if we had given up on Nelson Cruz. I think that there is a real possibility that Chris Davis could follow the Nelson Cruz career path. Let's look at some stats.

• Nellie in 2006: AAA: .302/.378/.528 in 371 ABs. MLB: .223/.261/.385 in 130 ABs.
  
• Nellie in 2007: AAA: .352/.428/.698 in 162 ABs. MLB: .235/.287/.384 in 307 ABs.
• Davis in 2009: AAA: .327/.418/.521 in 165 ABs. MLB: .238/.284/.442 in 391 ABs.
• Davis in 2010: AAA: .354/.403/.555 in 263 ABs. MLB: .169/.244/.234 in 77 ABs.

Those stats do not include the decent level of success Davis had in the Majors in 2008, just in case you want to attribute that season to pitchers not having a book on the Longview, TX native.

The statheads among us may point out that Davis has had a bit more strikeouts at every level, which could be an indicator of an inability to adjust  to Major League pitching in the future. While that may be an argument with some merit, I would counter it by pointing out something which is likely unrelated to K's, but its importance balances out the strikeout argument in my mind. I would point out that Nelson Cruz was age 25 in 2006, and 26 in '07. Chris Davis was 23 last season, and is 24 this year. Davis has 2 more years than Nelson did to figure it out, that's kind of a big deal.

Some may say that while Chris Davis may indeed improve, like Nelson did, in the long-term, that it is not worth finding out in the short-term, during a contending year like this. I would say that our lineup, as currently configured, is already far and away better than any line up in the American League, save the Yankees and Red Sox, who we are just as good as.

I am of the opinion that most supposed "AAAA" players gained that label unfairly by getting called up after having abnormal success in AAA. I don't think that those players actually get that much better during a season, but they just happen to have a large portion of their total season success during a certain part of the year at AAA, causing them to get called up. When they get called up, they suddenly start moving towards their expected season totals because their stats have to even out at some point. This makes their Major League totals look bad, and they are then usually called "AAAA" players. Let me be clear that I know that this is not always true, for I know all about Jason Botts.

Chris Davis could be Jason Botts, but he could also be Nelson Cruz. I think it is worth it for the Rangers to see if he is Nelson Cruz, because he already has more in common with Nelson Cruz, he can play good DEFENSE. And on that note, I will end my DEFENSE of Chris Davis.

Dear Mr. Frank Francisco,

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I was sitting at my desk today during 2nd period of an average school day. And since it was an average school day, I began to ponder on something completely unrelated to the subject matter at hand. My mind wanders off to the green fields of RBIA so easily these days during school because, you see, I am a senior- a senior who has already completed all of my college applications, sent in my transcripts/SAT scores, yada yada yada. I've already been accepted to one of these fine institutions of higher learning. Because of this, a poor close-minded Bible thumping adolescent such as myself struggles to find genuine incentive in paying too much attention during a class which has no impact upon the process of me formulating my world-view.You've probably already labeled me as a haughty know-it-all type that doesn't know-it-all because of that run-on in the preceding sentence, but I want you guys to know that, in reality, far away from computer screens, I'm really just a simple, low-key, introspective, not overly talkative, Rangers loving white male, not unlike many of you guys. And that leads me to the meat of the introduction to this simple quandry I will humbly lay before the diverse peoples which make up our fair blog.

While I was sitting in this class today, my mind wandered to the heated political/religious discussion we had on this here blog a couple days ago in which it seemed my reputation took a hit among many of you guys for reasons I still see to be debatable. But anyways, I remember somebody saying I'd probably end up going "to some Bible college where I can continue to close my mind". I mean, I don't care that someone on here thinks that, but luckily for you guys, I am now going to release for you guys the colleges to which I have already applied and those which I am considering in order of current preference:

Oklahoma State University (been accepted to)

University of North Texas (applied) - and I know many fellow LSBers go there;)

University of Texas at Austin (applied)

Texas A&M University (applied)

Tulane University (applied)

Baylor University (applied)

Bryan College(the Bible college where I would close my mind)

So the question I leave you guys with is:

Which one should I look to attend? and yes I already know of UT's and A&M's elite academics.

Oh and for whoever asks:

my SAT scores: Critical Reading: 630

Math: 620

Writing: 640

as they say on MXC, "Get it On!"

).

Mike Ogulnik just said so, and so does TR Sullivan. Andy Hawkins replaces Mark Connor.

HALLELUJAH

HI THERE HI THERE

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HI THER

HI THERE HI THERE

HI THERE HI THERE

HI THERE HI THERE

HI THERE HI THERE

HI THER

HI THERE HI THERE

HI THERE HI THERE

E HI THERE

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HI THER

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If I were a Yankees fan it would make sense to me, and these quotes from Cashman make it sound like this is a more than realistic possibility.

Here's the link: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8347236/Matsui-rehab-hits-snag;-Yanks-may-look-at-Bonds?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49 

The Yankees seem to be in the process of selling their souls to the devil.

OMG THERE WAS JUST A HUGE LIGHTNING STRIKE LIKE RIGHT DOWN THE STREET, AND NOW HAIL, I SHOULD GET OFF, BYE!!!

OMG THERE WAS JUST A HUGE LIGHTNING STRIKE LIKE RIGHT DOWN THE STREET, AND NOW HAIL, I SHOULD GET OFF, BYE!!!

OMG THERE WAS JUST A HUGE LIGHTNING STRIKE LIKE RIGHT DOWN THE STREET, AND NOW HAIL, I SHOULD GET OFF, BYE!!!

HUG - no dirty thoughts, guys.

I woke up this morning. The sun was shining through the blinds in my fair bedroom, I believe there was a bird singing outside, or I may just be making that up to make this poop sound better.  Well all this is neither here nor there, let's get to the point; I was happy. Why was I happy? Because as I woke up, I tilted my head slightly, just slightly, to the left and saw my calender on which I record each and every Rangers score throughout the season. Yesterday's game was marked with a W, and it made me smile. I then realized it was the All-Star break, a three to four day hiadus during which Rangers fans typically drown their sorrows because they have nothing better to do but ponder another lost season, with nothing to celebrate but Michael Young's semi-beastliness.

Now, I know what you're thinking at this point, "oh great, another Josh Hamilton tribute thread"  just because I said semi-beastliness, hinting at Josh's true beastliness. But this is not the case, children of the universe, what I was going to say was that as I looked at that W for Sunday, July 13, 2008, I realized our record was 50-46 at the All-Star break, but the key is, 50-46 in a REBUILDING SEASON. It has essentially been proclaimed such by my man JD. But I digress; we have the worst team ERA in baseball. Normally, this would force me into my traditional (but not current, as you will see later) state of hopeless optimism. However, this season, this beautiful-as-breasts season, things are different, and I'm not being a hopeless optimist in saying that. I had the pleasure of looking at the Community Prospect Rankings, the plethora of young starting pitching is ridiculous. One particular comment summed it up, but I can't find it right now. The general idea was saying that Kasey Kiker could be #10 or 11 of the Rangers minor league pitchers and that they are all have bonified Major League expectations.

Our offense is the best in baseball, and by all accounts, this should continue as the seasons roll on. The starting pitching will come, and keep coming, and keep coming with no signs of stopping. I realize I'm beginning to preach to the choir and I'm not really going anywhere.

I watched Josh Hamilton's personally pwn Yankee Stadium tonight and celebrate with Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Milton Bradley, who were looking on like little boys throughout the display. This just reinforced the preceding thoughts. As I was sitting there, right there, I tilted my head slightly, just slightly, to the right, and saw a poster of Ian Kinsler... this got me super excited, and I started doing things.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is, Texas Rangers fans stand up!!!!!!!!!! It is finally a good day to be a Rangers fan, and WILL be for at least the next 5 years.

Look at our Top 30 prospects, they're all potential players in the scheme, and they're the best group of prospects in baseball, and the main point: they're playing under a team that is already 50-46 during a rebuilding season.

Martin Perez, Engel Beltre: those two are not going to be in our Top 15 possibly. Look at their age and box scores from last night. Does it make you happy or what?

I speak for most of LSB in saying thank you, Jon Daniels, I love you.

heart

I was very saddened by the news that Tony Snow passed away this morning. I often times listened to his radio show growing up before he became White House Press Secretary for a time. He was always such a nice, charming, optimistic guy who stuck to his beliefs in every situation.

I know he was the original host of Weekend Live on FoxNews, and I know he also did many other positive things of note in the public eye before I was around. He will surely be missed...

Link: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,381250,00.html

It's hard for me to put into words how proud of the Dallas Stars I am right now. After going down 0-3 in the Western Conference Finals against the best team in the NHL, the Stars have done something nobody in their right minds saw coming, they won two games in a row - one at home, one on the road. This has closed the series to 2-3.

The Stars now come back to the AAC for Game 6 on Monday. If, and I emphasize IF, the Stars win, it will force a Game 7 in Detroit.

Is it possible that our Dallas Stars could be the third NHL team in history to come back from a 3-0 series hole?

GO STARS!!!

STANLEY CUP 2008!!!

BELIEVE!!!

I know that most of you LSB purists will be upset that I'm not waiting for the LSB mid-season prospect rankings to do this. Nevertheless, I think this would be an interesting time to have a poll deciding who is currently the Texas Rangers #1 prospect considering so many of our top prospects have gotten of to rather extreme starts in one way or another. The contestants:

Eric Hurley

Chris Davis

Elvis Andrus

Taylor Teagarden

Neftali Feliz

Blake Beavan

Michael Main

Tommy Hunter

Max Ramirez

Kasey Kiker

Engel Beltre

Wilmer Font

Matt Harrison

John Mayberry Jr.

So, who's #1? Don't get mad, this is the only poll I'm doing, no #2 or #3, I'll save that for dirkatron and the mid-season community rankings.

The Stars look to right the ship tonight in Hockeytown.

Game 2 of the
Western Conference Finals
Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings
Detroit leads the best-of-seven series 1-0.
6:00 PM CST
on Versus

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

Dallas Stars vs. San Jose Sharks - Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs
Game 6 of the best-of-seven series - Dallas leads 3-2
@ American Airlines Center
on Versus at 8:00 PM CST

GO STARS!!!!
STANLEY CUP 2008!!!

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

Here is mine:

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Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks

9:00 PM CST

on Versus

Stars lead series 3-1, if they win, they advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2000!

GO STARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

STANLEY CUP 2008!!!!

Believe

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves

talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk amongst yourselves talk

Dallas is looking to go up 2-0 in the series with two straight wins on the road in a hostile environment. If the Stars win this game, the bandwagon will really be getting heavy.

Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks

8:00 PM CST

KDFI (my27)

GO STARS!!!!

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

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If you need to get your mind off the disaster that is the Texas Rangers, watch the Dallas Stars take on the Anaheim Ducks in, essentially, a do or die situation. It is at the AAC, and the crowd should be pumped.

Dallas Stars vs. Anaheim Ducks

8:00 PM CST

Fox Sports Southwest

GO STARS!!!

do or die

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

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The Dallas Stars have the defending Stanley Cup champions on the ropes.

The game is not until 9:30 PM CST but I'm going to go ahead and put this up ahead of time so I don't forget as a result of over-anticipation.

The Stars lead the best-of-seven series 3-1 and are looking to advance to the second round for the first time since 2003.

The game is on KDFI and/or Versus.

I was at Game 5 last night and I would promise that is the loudest I have EVER heard American Airlines Center. GO STARS!!!

flashes of '99.

The Dallas Stars come back home looking to go up 3-0 in the best-of-seven.

Crowd in all black and going nuts with the towels!!

GO STARS!!!

STANLEY CUP 2008!!! 

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish

Dallas leads series 1-0 after winning Game 1 on the road. Marty Turco has recorded shutouts in 4 of his last 8 playoff games.

Stars up 1-0 at the end of the first period........ GO STARS!!!!!!!

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 fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish fish 

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MLBTR, no matter how unreliable they may be, say that there are discussions of a 3 team trade between the Orioles, Cubs, and Rangers going down. It could/would involve the likes of Marlon Byrd, Eric Bedard, Brian Roberts, Felix Pie, Sean Gallagher, and surely some Rangers prospects.

I know many y'all insist that we can't get a piece of the Pie, but what do you guys make of this? Here is the link:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/rogers-cubs-bed.html

The Rangers will finish in 2nd place in the AL West ahead of the Mariners. Compare the Rangers and Mariners depth charts on MLB.com..... I dare you.

Here are the edges

LF: Mariners
CF: Mariners
RF: Rangers
1B: Toss up leaning Rangers
2B: Rangers
SS: Rangers
3B: Rangers
C: Short Term: Toss Up, Long Term: Rangers
DH: Toss Up leaning Mariners

Ace: Mariners
Rest of rotation: Rangers, Washburn and Batista are as bound to be worse as Millwood and Padilla are to be better than last year.
Bullpen: Toss up.

Reasonable Goal for '08: Finish ahead of the M's.
They were lucky last year.

Thoughts?