SB Nation User Blog: dtoddwin

Matt Capps, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: I do understand why the Pirates non-tendered Capps; the...

dtoddwin — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:23:51 -0000

Matt Capps, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: I do understand why the Pirates non-tendered Capps; the arbitration process wildly overvalues saves -- and Capps was headed for a salary that the Pirates felt exceeded his likely value to the team. It does provide a cautionary tale for low-payroll clubs with closers, however: trade them while their value is high, because one bad season can leave you with nothing. Capps has good-to-plus control of an above-average fastball, but his mediocre changeup has left him vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who torched him in 2009 for an .342/.373/.641 line, by far the biggest platoon split he's shown; he gave up eight home runs to left-handed hitters, all on fastballs. Because he throws strikes and just had some bad luck on balls in play in 2009, he's worth a flier as a right-handed specialist who has late-game experience, but I wouldn't give him closer money.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4741332&name=law_keith

Keith Law's take on Capps' non-Tender

dtoddwin — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:22:56 -0000

Keith Law's take on Capps' non-Tender

Lookout, and it's not collusion.....

dtoddwin — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:34:33 -0000

Here are a couple articles, one concerning MLB and the other the NBA. I'm not drawing direct parallels between the two sports just showing the impact the economic downturn is having. $80 tickets just aren't going to cut it going forward. There are another dozen articles like this relating to the NHL as well. Salaries (and in the case of the NBA and NHL, salary caps) are going to adjust downward as revenues decline. Contraction is certainly going to be on the board in the NBA and NHL in the next few years. Vlad, feel free to disagree.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091202&content_id=7746074&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/18850386?source=rss_blogs_NBA

(would someone please take a second and help me link these two articles. For some reason I can't copy the URL into the "link" box that pops up and when I just past the URL it doesn't show up as a link. Sorry and thanks.)

Brewers claim Luis Cruz

dtoddwin — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:55:55 -0000

Brewers claim Luis Cruz

According MLB Trade Rumors.

Color Me Shocked

dtoddwin — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 14:53:44 -0000

Two interesting pieces in an article by Buster Olney today. Here is the link to the article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4610865&name=olney_buster

1.) I think the first paragraph sums it up:

The conversations between general managers began accelerating this week, and some have noticed a distinct trend that does not bode well for this winter's crop of free agents: The financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave.

This is exactly what I expect(ed) and I think it will continue to color the landscape going forward in baseball as well as the NBA and NHL. (The NFL has its own separate issues, in my opinion.) Salaries are going to come down.

2.) Freddy gets a new two year deal.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/31/SPCE1AD7NT.DTL

Needless to say I was completely wrong and Vlad was right about this part of the Jack-Freddy duo (although I think with Freddy's injury, this might even surprise him.) I don't know who the Giants thought they'd be bidding against. Maybe they wanted to justify giving up Alderson. I am very surprised. One year, six million--maybe. Two years, eight million--maybe. Two years, twelve million--while it isn't by any means outrageous, I think it is pretty surprising, particularly in the context of what Olney writes above. I bet Freddy is breathing a sigh of relief today. Good for him.

Off-Season.....and Contracts

dtoddwin — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:13:31 -0000

I think there has been a reasonably interesting debate going on as an undercurrent to some of the discussions we've had here. (I'm going to try to express the views here and what I think some people have as expressed as their opinion. Please correct me if I misrepresent something.)

My opinion and one I think is shared by WTM is that the free agent market corrected last year and I think will continue to correct this year. As a result values presented by WAR, etc. are misleading, if not completely off-base. I am probably in the extreme in that I think we've seen the peak and player contracts will not continue to spiral upward. I expect the cumulative amount paid out in player salaries to remain pretty constant over the next five years. I also think franchise values in virtually all sports excluding football have peaked. Understand that does NOT mean the next time the Pirates are sold they won't be sold for more than they were when Nutting, et al bought the team. It means that the franchise value five years from now won't be appreciably different than it is today, even correcting for inflation (very low at the moment).

The basis of my opinion is that owners have become more rational and GMs more intelligent and thus are not willing to shell out as many ridiculous contracts as they have in the past. Sure there will still be the occasional terrible one, but even those tend to be shorter in duration than the six years that Mike Hampton got or the seven years that Barry Zito got. I even think we will see a slow down in the outrageous arbitration awards that are given as top players salaries stop rising. And, certainly young talent is valued more highly than ever before.

Vlad and JRoth, on the other hand, don't share that opinion. They note that the free agent market did correct last off-season and I think they view that as more of an anomaly based on the disastrous economic climate of the day. They think contracts will continue to move higher over time. Albeit, maybe at a slower pace.

Vlad has at times suggested that if this does occur that it will be because the owners are colluding. History is on his side in that argument as the owners have twice lost court cases on just that topic. I don't agree. More than half of the teams in the game are under different ownership than they were at the time those cases came about. I would argue that most of today's new owners, like John Henry or even Bob Nutting, are smarter businessmen dealing in a different economic climate than their predecessors. (Please don't make answers to this post be about whether Nutting is a smart owner. We don't have access to the books. Clearly the product on the field has been terrible under his stewardship, but he is most likely making a large amount of money each year as he pays of his debt, thus increasing the value of his ownership stake.) Sure Barry Bonds couldn't get a job, but I don't think anyone wanted anything to do with the SOB and all that he brought with him. Vlad thinks it was collusion. I certainly don't think Abreu, Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf and many others got contracts lower that expected because owners were colluding. I think tremendously hard economic times caused a shift in the market that neither owners nor players expected. However, I do think this dramatic economic collapse showed the owners the folly of their ways and they are smarter for it.

So, what will we see going forward this off-season and over the next five years? I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I've posted a poll for your amusement. Also, WTM, Vlad and JRoth, I apologize if I mischaracterized any of your opinions. Please correct any misstatements on my part or take your shots at my opinions where you think appropriate. Thanks.

I couldn't publish a second poll, but I'll throw out my opinion for discussion. I think Jack and Freddy will earn less than $8 million combined next season. Thoughts?

Poll

How do you see free agent contracts unfolding over this off-season?

A continued correction as we saw last year with a few big contracts for players like Lackey.

44 votes

Right in line with last off-season.

29 votes

A move back higher, but not the dramatic increases we have seen in the past.

16 votes

More of a feeding frenzy that was common in the 2003-2007 era.

2 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Jack and Freddy (Part 3)

dtoddwin — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 17:07:06 -0000

There isn't much interesting to discuss with the Pirates these days. Obviously the performance is beyond terrible. However, as you know, the whole Jack and Freddy thing is something I have found rather interesting.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/8/25/1002303/and-poof-goes-the-option-freddy-on

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/8/24/1000867/jack-and-freddy

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/7/21/956292/crazy-talk-or-not

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/4/15/838940/lets-get-this-out-there-early

Here is some of the latest. It is just shocking how a GM can say something that is clearly not true, almost to the point of being delusional.

Regarding Freddy Sanchez here is the money quote from Giants GM Brian Sabean:

"You can't deny that Freddy, when he's been out there, has been every bit a No. 2 hitter that we didn't have, and an All-Star second baseman," Sabean said.

Now it is true that they didn't have Freddy before they had him--can't quibble with that. Here is how Fred has done with SF, missing 25 of the 50 games since being acquired and most likely the rest of the season:

102 At bats, 1 HR, 7 RBIs. .284 BA, .295 OBP, .324 SLG, .619 OPS, 62 OPS+.......small sample size, but basically terrible. The Giants aren't picking up the option and it isn't going to vest. It's been an expensive three months for the guy. And he needs knee surgery in the offseason. I'll be surprised if he gets more that $6 million for two years (with playing time incentives) now, when he would have gotten $8 million next year had he been healthy.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_13407708?nclick_check=1

Believe it or not, Jack has been worse in Seattle. He has played in only 31 games since being acquired and hasn't played since Sept. 15th. His stats:

107 At bats, 1 HR, 8 RBIs. .224 BA, .263 OBP, .299 SLG, .562 OPS, 51 OPS+........small sample size, but horrific.

Bottom line: They are both 32 next year. They are now both clearly damaged goods. Freddy's injuries were cited for his terrible year last year (79 OPS+) and he has missed much of the second half this season and now needs surgery in the offseason. Jack played 87 games last year and 106 (so far) this year.

These two guys aren't getting paid anything close to the "insulting"--according to many--offers they turned down from the Pirates.

These trades should, at this point, be judged as huge wins for NH. Trades are judged on results and obviously you can't predict injuries, but the reason NH "lowballed" both guys was precisely the fact that they will be 32 next year and they had some history of injury when they were traded. So in return for the balance of the season's performance of Jack and Freddy*, some money for Jack for the remainder of this season and Ian Snell and the $7.25 million due him the next two years the Pirates received: Rony Cedeno (who has put up a line of .258/.307/.394 and an 88 OPS+ with 5 HRs and 21 RBIs since joining the Pirates) and is arbitration eligible next year, Jeff Clement, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic and Tim Alderson--all of whom the Pirates control for the next six years.

A silver lining in an otherwise miserable season. Let's hope some of these assets pan out.

*They will both become free agents at the end of the season and let's pray that when NH talked about resigning players that had been traded away he didn't mean these two. Maybe at one year $2-3 million, but not even at the amounts he offered them pre-trade. Let's just hope we move on (although I'd be willing to consider Freddy as a one year stopgap).

Adam LaRoche

dtoddwin — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 22:35:17 -0000

Adam has been scorching down in Atlanta. He is slashing .365/.446/.646 for an OPS of 1.092 and OPS+ of 185 in 96 ABs and 112 PAs. He also has 8 HRs. As a frame of reference, that is basically the month Garrett Jones had in July if you remember how hot he was.

Here a Adam' combined season numbers vs. last year.

2008: .270/.341/.500 OPS .841 OPS+ 123. His counting stats were 32 2Bs, 25 HRs, 85 RBI, 54BBs, 122 SOs, 554 PAs

2009: .273/.353/.490 OPS .842 OPS+ 123. His counting stats are 30 2Bs, 21 HRs, 62 RBI, 56 BBs, 112 SOs, 499 PAs

Notice anything?

Next Year's Lineup....

dtoddwin — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 19:17:15 -0000

Obviously everything is subject to trades or injury. I think as of September first we now know a few things for certain. Cutch will be leading off and playing center field. Garrett Jones will be batting third and be playing first and/or right. Milledge will be playing left. Ronny Cedeno will be at short and Delwyn Young will be at second. I can't see any reason, based on each of these players' performance and what is available on our current roster, why these things aren't virtual certainties.

I have slowly come to the view that we should call up Neil Walker this month and let him play twently games. Andy LaRoche has had 480 PAs and he's OPSing .700. Okay we've seen it. Whether he plays 15 games or 35 games the rest of the way isn't going to change what we think of him. One of two things happens if Walker comes up and plays twenty games: 1.) He gets exposed and goes back to AAA knowing that there is a lot more work and improvement needed for him to succeed at the major league level. 2.) He performs well and probably still starts next year in AAA, but with a sense that if he performs like he has over the past six weeks, there is a very real chance that come June 1 next year he gets called up with the possibility of playing regularly based on LaRoche's (and Alvarez's) performance. No question, under that scenario, his bat would be a welcome addition, even on the bench.

Right field/first base have been discussed at length. The bloom isn't necessarily off the rose with Jeff Clement, but for better or worse everyone's initial enthusiasm has been tempered. After being incredibly hot for his first 40 at bats with Indy, he has been equally cold over his last 80. Jose Tabata isn't starting next year in Pittsburgh. Similarly, after a great start in AAA, he has cooled a bit and is slashing .290/.343/.420 in 100 at bats. He's 20. Those numbers are just fine, but he may spend all of next year in Indy and I don't see anything wrong with that. So that means, in my view, it's either Moss in right (again) and Jones at first. Or a platoon of Pearce/Clement at first and Jones in right. I think the later is probably better, but don't have a strong view.

Catcher. Boy has Doumit mucked this up. Clearly he has the most talent and highest upside. Sanchez is 2-3 years away. But, the fact of it is the team got better performances from the JJ/Diaz combo than they have from Ryan this year and now there appear to be attitude issues. A week ago he was saying how great it was to have Chuck Tanner in his corner and how much it meant to him. A week later he is getting benched for insubordination or lack of hustle or maybe both. A HUGE disappointment and far and away the biggest downer of the season (other than possibly Capps' terrible season.) He isn't getting traded in the off-season because he will command very little in return. I don't think this is a Ian Snell situation, but let's hope things get better this month and in spring training.

The staff is largely set. Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf and Morton are in the starting rotation next year. Hart, McCutchen and Ascanio will vie for the fifth spot and Lincoln will start in AAA and probably be up in some form by June. The pen will consist of Capps, Hanrahan and Chavez, with one of them closing. Two of the three fifth starters above will be there, although it's possible if pitcher Cutch doesn't make the rotation he goes back to AAA so he can continue to start. Let's say that is the case, then there are three spots available. I'm guessing Veal goes to Indy as a starter to get innings and refine his mechanics and command. Karstens and Meek are on the roster. That leaves a spot or two for Jackson and others to battle for.

So, the gist of the whole post is the guys you are watching play today are, more or less, going to be the guys you watch play for the first three months of next season. The farm system is much better, but it's young with most of the talent in the various class A and AA teams. Alvarez has a very good chance of being up by June 1, as does Lincoln and Walker has at least put himself back in the conversation, but otherwise what you are seeing is what you are most likely getting for the first 80 games next year.

Baseball Prospectus Event

dtoddwin — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 19:14:41 -0000

For those of you who haven't seen it Baseball Prospectus is hosting an event at PNC Park. Here are the details. Looks like a great event. (Charlie, I am assuming because this is publicizing an event they are hosting and it was not behind the subscription wall it is okay to post like this. Please alter if necessary.) The seats are in the right field bleachers.

Pssst… Wanna Meet Neal Huntington and Dan Fox?

by Shawn Hoffman

Then you better buy your ticket to our PNC Park event while there are still some spots remaining. Here are the details:

When: Saturday September 5th, at 5:00 PM
Where: PNC Park’s picnic area
How: Call 412-325-4497 and ask for the Baseball Prospectus event. Tickets are $44, and include a seat at the game, plus food and drink at the pre-game event.

Will Carroll, John Perrotto, and I will be there, along with BP favorite Rocco DeMaro and we’ll be holding a Q&A session with Neal and Dan, so bring your best questions.