Below is my top 64 2013 Big Board, with mini-scouting reports on over 30 prospects. Updates in future.

Feel free to leave comments. Undoubtedly, there are many I have accidentally left out, or just plain have not heard of.

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With only 23 more picks to go before we welcome our new Falcon, it is looking increasingly more likely we will pick a defensive lineman with our second round pick. Look at who is still available.

Jerel Worthy

Brandon Thompson

Alameda Ta'amu

Andre Branch

Vinny Curry

Cam Johnson

Of coarse, no TE has been picked, but I would prefer to see if one falls to our 3rd round pick (Charles?)

Thompson and Worthy could be what Peria Jerry was supposed to become if not for injury.

Curry and Branch could be our pass-rusher of the future, difficult to find without a second round pick.

Ta'amu provides something not currently on our roster, SIZE, not offered by any of of current DTs.

Additionally, at nearly 350 pounds, he would be our NT, if in the future, we start using 3 man or hybrid fronts.

this wont be a mega-mock http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/3/9/2782715/dursts-2012-mega-mock

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This could be the ultimate for armchair GMs, build your own team over a five (or whatever) year time period.

That is, draft players in the 2012 draft, and keep adding every April. Finally, see what my team looks like in five years.

The question is how best to do it?

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The Atlanta Falcons have won more games the past four seasons than any other NFC team, but have failed to win a playoff game. Since coming into the league in 2008, the same year coach Mike Smith took over in Atlanta, Ryan and Smith have had great success, but the playoff failures, going 0-3, hang over their heads.

Meanwhile, both offensive and defensive coordinators have left, something that may not be a bad thing...

Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, who came under a lot of scrutiny in his four seasons with the Falcons, is now the head coach in Jacksonville. Ironically, he was replaced by the Jag's offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter. Look for the Falcons to be much more aggressive down the field under Koetter. That should be good news for quarterback Matt Ryan.

Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left for Auburn, replaced by highly respected Mike Nolan. Nolan has said he is not bringing in the 3-4 defense that he ran as coordinator at Miami, and Baltimore, and as head coach of the 49ers, although some hybrid-fronts are expected.

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Louisville TE Josh Chichester -- Standing at 6'8/245, the former wide receiver ran a 4.57 forty and leaped 38" on his vertical. Chichester lacks burst out of a three-point stance when blocking or releasing in-line, but gets down the field with long strides. Obviously he stands out as a red-zone target with a wide catch radius while using his body for positioning. Otherwise, Chichester lacks some coordination and will be unable to look fluid in routes that require more than a single break downfield. If he uses his reach when blocking and adds strength to his game, Chichester could be worth a very late-round developmental pick as a slot tight end.

University of Louisville tight end Josh Chichester made great strides of accomplishing his “ultimate goal” of playing professional football during the school’s pro day Wednesday.

According to his former high school coach, Lakota West’s Larry Cox, Chichester measured out at 6-foot-6 235 pounds, had a vertical jump that cleared 37 inches and turned in a 40-yard dash time of 4.58 seconds in front of representatives of 20 NFL teams.

In comparison, his 40-yard time would have tied him for the third place among tight ends during the NFL Combine in Indianapolis in late February. Furthermore, his 37-inch vertical was better than any jump turned in by tight end at the Combine.

In his four-year career, Chichester had 97 receptions for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also graduated from Louisville with a degree in justice administration in 2010. This past season, Chichester was working on his master’s degree.

Out of high school, Chichester’s athletic ability on both the football field and on the basketball court attracted the attention of many Division I programs. Meanwhile, his basketball career at U-of-L lasted one year when he averaged 1.8 points in six games for U-of-L head coach Rick Pitino in 2007-2008.

Many believe Stanford's David DeCastro is worthy of a top 15, or even top 10 pick in the NFL draft.

Guards selected in the first round have a better success rate, and a lower bust rate than most other positions.

However, many of the best guards in the NFL were former offensive tackles in college.

Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans, Marshal Yanda, and Logan Mankins were all left tackles during their senior year in college.

Makes sense, you normally play your best offensive lineman at LT, and few college teams have one than one NFL caliber offensive lineman. (*notable exceptions include the 2010 USC team, the 2008 Virginia team, and the 2012 Stanford team)

Others, such as Ben Grubbs, Davin Joseph, and Steve Hutchinson played guard in college.

David DeCastro played guard his whole college career at Stanford, and did it very well. So well, that he may be a top 15 pick in the NFL draft.

Cordy Glenn, and Kelechi Osemele both played left tackle last year, and their game tape does not compare to DeCastro, but it that unfair?

While Stanford's Jonathan Martin protected Andrew Luck's blindside, DeCastro was able to play to his strengths.

Recent history has found guards like Joseph, Grubbs, soon to be followed by DeCastro in the first round.

Is it a better value to take an above average collegiate left tackle and move him to guard?

Andrew Luck is universally believed to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, and will be the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

So why did the Washington Redskins give up so much to trade for the #2 pick? Because Robert Griffin just might be the second best prospect since Peyton Manning.

Thirty five quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round since Peyton Manning was selected with the first pick in the 1998 draft.

Let go down memory lane and analyze each of the QBs taken in the first round since Manning, and see where RGIII fits in.

I wrote this Feb. 1st 2012 on sportsnation sister site mocking the draft. You can read the entire write-up here: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/1/2760184/is-rg3-the-second-best-qb-prospect-since-peyton-manning

This is the first edition of my "mega mock", a mock draft complete with team needs, some stats, analysis, and video.

See which of my 10 players I hate more than you I have warmed up on, and which of my 10 players I love more than you I have cooled off on.

28 of my top 32 from my For those about to MOCK....we salute you (2012 edition) post made it into the first round.

Three trades predicted...

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On average, an NFL team only has six to seven first round draft choices playing on the team that drafted them.

Some bust, some get injured, and some do so well, that they leave via free agency....but mostly, they just get OLD, and have to be replaced.

An NFL roster will suit-up 52 players on game day, but only slightly more than 10% will be made up of their former first round picks.

Of coarse,"steals" can be found at nearly every position: Tom Brady in the 6th round, Marques Colston in the 7th, LT Jason Peters went undrafted. (I could go on all day).

Knowing this, what 7 positions would you want your team to have spent a first round pick on.

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More so than previous years, the "talking heads" seem in agreement as to who is the top prospect at each position, but as they say " It aint over till the fat lady sings", and some draft analysts are sure to be singing a different song after the combine.

Who do you feel has the greatest hold on their position, and who do you feel needs to be looking over their shoulder?

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LT Andrew Datko, 6-6, 321, Florida State: ranked only 17th on NFLDraftScout.com's tackle ratings , also has his supporters, including those at National Football Post: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_player_scouting_report.html&player=36044

Datko took over starting LT for FSU as a True Freshman in 2008 and continued in that role until a left shoulder problem that began in 2010 ended his 2011 season after four games.

He began having issues with a surgically-repaired shoulder toward the end of preseason camp but still managed to start the first four games of the 2011 season, before being put on the shelf for the rest of the year.

The injuries are going to be the killer for Datko., who underwent surgery last summer to repair problems with his shoulders. He had separated one of them and tore the labrum in the other during his junior season.

Datko also isn’t going to be a good fit for every team. He’s a finesse blocker who moves well and blocks well in space. He mirrors the defender well and plays a smart game.

Shoulder injury in 2010, which snapped a streak of 27 consecutive starts, before the injury relinquished just one sack in 11 games (all starts) on the season, stifling heralded pass rushers from Oklahoma, Miami, Clemson, Florida and Virginia Tech.

Started every game at the left tackle position in 2009, and only allowed two sacks all season, shutting out 2010 first round pick Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech), and 2011 first round pick Robert Quinn (UNC).

How do you feel about Andrew Datko, an injury risk, that may be available as late as the 5th round.

Stephen Hill : This past season, Hill caught only 28 passes, for 820 yards, and five touchdowns. However, his average of 29.3 yards per catch, both lead the nation, and set a Georgia Tech school record. In a scheme where the run comes first, second, and third, the ability of Hill was not put on full display. Like former Ga Tech WRs Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson before him, Hill hopes doing more with less shows he has the big play ability that many NFL teams look for in the draft. http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/23/2727169/how-does-stephen-hill-compare-to-demaryius-thomas-and-calvin-johnson

Ryan Broyles : The polar opposite of Hill,the ultra-productive Broyles broke the NCAA record for career receptions, then three weeks later, tragedy struck when his senior-year ended after Broyles tore his ACL. Although I never agreed with the first round predictions that many placed on Broyles early in his career, he currently has great value as an anticipated fourth round prospect, which I have no problem surrendering a pick for such a great slot wide-out. http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/18/2802093/the-curious-case-of-ryan-broyles

Travis Lewis : Speaking of Former Sooners who were thought to be first round prospects back in 2010, Travis Lewis also battled injuries his senior year. As a freshman,Lewis was a star hybid safety-linebacker back in 2008, as he posted 144 tackles and over one hundred yards on four interception returns, however his stats, and possibly his speed has went down ever sence.(Lewis reportedly has run in the 4.3s http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/lewis_travis00.html )

Jarius Wright : Although Kendall Wright certainly had better stats (108 receptions for 1663 yds, and 14 TDs), keep in mind Jarius (66, 1117, 12 TDs) had to share the ball with Joe Adams (among others) who is a solid pro-prospect himself. Not only do they share the same last name, but also a similar height/weight/speed, and skill set. I just don’t see the value in K Wright in the 1st, when you could have J. Wright in the fourth round.

Andre Branch : At 6-5, 265, Branch has the prototype build for a weak-side pass-rusher. Last fall, Branch took over against Virginia Tech back in early October, helping the Tigers upset the Hokies on the road with 11 tackles and a ridiculous four sacks.

Bruce Irvin : Maybe people chalked-up Irvin to being a one-year-wonder, as his sack total drops significantly from 14 in 2010 to 8 1/2 in 2011. Playing out of position, as a defensive end in WVU’s 3-3-5 stack, Irvin says he has never been taught the nuances of being a pass-rusher. Instead, he relies on a burst off the line that resembles a safety blitz. Irvin showed off his speed at a junior college combine by running the 40-yard dash in a stunning 4.37 seconds http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/17/2804925/is-bruce-irvin-closer-to-von-miller-or-dontay-moch

Vinny Curry : Yet another pass-rusher with good production on the college level, and enough motor to have a chance on the NFL level.

Brandon Thompson and Jerel Worthy : Next are a pair of 4-3 DTs that I love more than you. I prefer the 4-3 to the 3-4, and these two wont fit well on 3-4 teams. They have each showed enough on the college level to be first tried at the 3 technique - a penetrating, one-gap DT: I currently rank Worthy, underclassmen, slightly ahead of the senior Thompson.

Alameda Ta'amu Valuable as a NT to 3-4 teams, and a DT in a 4-3, I see similar size, but superior athleticism when comparing him to Phil Taylor. Futhermore, I like him more than Dontari Poe, although I don't love him as much as Russ Lande: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/15/2798523/rock-out-with-your-mock-out-russ-lande-sporting-news

Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma WR 5-10 1/2, 188, 4.5 (Sooners junior Pro Day results)

Back in January 2011, most expected Oklahoma wide receiver Ryan Broyles to declare for the 2011 NFL draft.

Broyles redshirted as a freshman in 2007, when he was reportedly suspended indefinitely for stealing gas. Players can enter the NFL draft three years after their high school class graduates. Therefore, juniors or third-year sophomores can apply for entry into the draft, and Broyles' first opportunity came after the 2009 season, when he had 89 receptions for 1,120 yards and 15 TDs.

He had an even better season in 2010, with a nation-high 131 receptions for 1,622 yards and 14 TDs.

Broyles said many other factors went into his decision to stay at OU. He's from Norman, so he's already at home with friends and family. In addition, his parents had encouraged him to finish his degree. Ryan was the first in his family to go to college.

Still, when you stay in school, there always is the risk of injury. Former Sooners QB Sam Bradford and tight end Jermaine Gresham suffered season-ending injuries in 2009 after bypassing the NFL Draft, but were fortunate enough to still be selected as first round draft choices.

Entering his senior season, Broyles was thought to be a potential first round pick, although there were doubts about his ability to be an "outside" receiver due to a lack of size and speed.

Mocking Dan's Bold statement: Broyles will be the best pure slot wide receiver in the 2012 NFL Draft. Prospect notes

On October 15, 2011, Broyles broke the NCAA record for career receptions "Ryan Broyles breaks receptions record"

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Bruce Irvin : 6-foot-3, 240 pound, 4.4 - 4.5 est.

Perhaps it just seems too much to compare Irvin to Von Miller, when Miller was such a dominant force in his first year in the NFL that the second pick in the 2011 NFL Draft earned NFL defensive rookie year with the Broncos.

Meanwhile, the similarly-sized Moch wasn't drafted until the 66th pick. During his rookie year, Moch watched, and didn't record a single tackle; despite being an excellent athlete, and 2010 NFL combine star.

After the 2011 Draft, there were many who felt Irvin was nearly a clone of Miller. What happened?

Maybe people chalked-up Irvin to being a one-year-wonder, as his sack total drops significantly from 14 in 2010 to 8 1/2 in 2011.

Playing out of position, as a defensive end in WVU’s 3-3-5 stack, Irvin says he has never been taught the nuances of being a pass-rusher. Instead, he relies on a burst off the line that resembles a safety blitz.

Here MTD's scouting report : Prospect notes

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Of all the draft "experts" Lande is probably my least favorite. Although I certainly am not looking for everyone's mocks to be identical, and I too have some "hunch" predictions that don't follow the consensus, Lande's work just seems from outer space sometimes...

Things start off sorta ho-hum, then smacks you in the face with the Washington Redskin's selection of the NT from the University of Washington Alameda Ta'amu, whom I am quite high on, and also have him in my first round, but no-where near the top 10. He then nearly has a second NT going top 10, with Kansas City's selection of Memphis' Dontari Poe.

Among other surprises, Lande has Mike Adams going 13th, six spots above Reiff.

Juron Criner's good performance at the Senior Bowl has made Lande forget about his uninspiring last season at Arizona. He has him going 30th to the 49ers, while leaving out Rutgers WR Sanu.

Many feel a tight end wont be selected until the Giants selection, but Lande has Stanford's Coby Fleener going to the Browns, who have a new QB in Robert Griffin III.

He did play it safe with many of his picks, and I still seem to be alone in my belief that Luke Kuechly, Janoris Jenkins, and Kendall Wright will all be second round picks. Lande has them all in his top 20.

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/12/2784975/10-players-i-hate-more-than-you

However he did include two of my personal favorites in Virgina CB Chase Minnifield, and Clemson DE Andre Branch, while excluding Nebrasksa's Alphonzo Dennard.

I also support his decision to leave out Alabama's Mark Barron and Don'ta Hightower, but NOT Courtney Upshaw.

He seems to be very down on this group of pass-rushers, as in addition to Upshaw's absence, there is also no sign of Whitney Mercilus, Vinny Curry, or Bruce Irvin.

Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-02-09/nfl-mock-draft-first-round-board-fluctuates-as-combine-approaches#ixzz1mTLEQ8m8

Forget the Browns trading both first round picks to the Rams. When evaluating NFL Draft trade charts, I realized that Cleveland giving up both the fourth and 22nd pick seems too much to give up to move up only two spots for RG3.

Then I looked at the Rams accepting the Brown's 2nd round (#37) pick in exchange for moving down from #2 to #4.

The Rams don't realy want Griffin, and by moving down only two spots, they can be assured of getting one of the two players most commonly "mocked" to them - WR Justin Blackmon or LT Matt Kalil.

The Rams would risk losing their top player, but not needing a QB, they would get the second player on their board at number four.

Additionally, the Rams would have two picks at the very top of the second round. Last year the Browns did well at #37, drafting DE Jabaal Sheard; who some thought was likely going to drafted in the first round.

Here is a list of other recent #37 picks:

So the question is:

#1. Is gaining just the #37pick worth potentially losing the top player on your board? I say yes.

#2. Is giving up the #37 pick worth it to get RG3? I again say yes.

1. Ryan Tannehill: I believe Tannehill will be a first round pick, and feel this is a mistake. 16 career starts at Quarterback, and I really don't count his starts a WR. It's not the same as a DB who played CB as a fresh/soph, and then moved to safety. QB is the most important on a NFL team, and college football is the NFL's minor league. QBs need as much time (experience) in the minor leagues as possible. Cam Newton is the exception, not the only exception, but one of the very few exceptions to the Rule of 26-27-60 (helps predict NFL quarterback success or failure, based on -among other things- QB starts in college). Tannehill's ceiling is somewhere along the lines of Tony Romo/Jake Plummer, but his floor could be much lower.

2. Kendall Wright: I have posted this already: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/20/2721413/kendall-wright-does-size-matter ?

Dan’s buddies at www.newerascouting.com begins their analysis of Wright like this :

"By today’s wide receiver standards, it is very rare to be less than six feet tall and a first-round draft pick. During the last decade, there were 41 wide receivers drafted in the first-round, and only six of those players were shorter than six feet. NFL scouts and coaches have an infatuation with height at the wide receiver position, and will usually give the edge to a taller wide receiver if he performs similarly in other areas."

Is this four-year starter worthy of being selected in the first round? They conclude yes, Wright "is worthy of being one of the rare first-round selections of a WR under six feet tall."

I study draft history and tendencies quite a bit, and I agree with their analysis, but not their conclusion.

IMO Kendall Wright will NOT be a first round draft choice.

Speaking of size...

3. Janoris Jenkins: If Jenkins is drafted in the first round, he will be the first CB under 5-10 drafted in the first since before 2000.

Now, some NFL.com may have rounded up on a few, but every CB drafted in the first round since 2000 (that is as far back as I went) has been listed 5-10 or taller.

Jenkins is very, very close to that magic number, and additionally one could argue Brandon Flowers should have been drafted in the first.

I am not saying he can’t be a great player, I am just recognizing that the NFL does frequently follow sterotypes, and personally, I will continue to keep Jenkins outside of my 1st round.

4. Alfonzo Dennard: As I have mentioned here http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/20/2721318/for-those-about-to-mock-we-salute-you-2012-edition Last year, I stated that Brandon Harris was one of my 16 guaranteed to be drafted in the first round, ignoring his poor performance against the much larger Michael Floyd in the bowl game. This year Dennard was exposed in a similar fashion by the much larger Alshon Jeffery.

5. Mark Barron: Way before his double-hernia surgery, I have been preaching Barron as a high second, but not a first round pick. I have stated before that although "the NFL is looking for safeties capable of matching up against the Jimmy Smiths and Gronks of the modern NFL......Barron is not one of those safeties" Well coached, disciplined, and has played with and against alot of NFL quality players, but he just isn't the "freak" it takes to match up with Gronk n Jimmy.

6. Dontari Poe: It's not that I don't like Poe, as much as I like Alameda Ta'amu better, and If I had to get a NT, I would rather see if I could get Josh Chapman somewhere between picks 55 and 70, who played with a torn ACL for the last eight games of the 2011 season.

7. Luke Kuechly: Only once in the last 10 years has more than one ILB been a first round pick (except for position switches later in a career), and recently Rey Maualuga, James Laurinaitis, Paul Posluszny, and Brandon Spikes (among others) have all found themselves in the second round. For as great as Kuechly has been, Laurinaitis and Posluszny were nearly his equal. I don't believe I have seen a mock draft without Kuechly in the first round. I guess mine will ge the first?

8. Donta Hightower: Again, it is rare to see more than one ILB go in the first round, but more importantly, Hightower is slow. We have read this book before, and Brandon Spikes and Maualuga entered their senior years with a higher grade than Hightower.

9. Brandon Weeden: Once again, we have read this book before (Chris Weinke 4167 yards as a senior) = 4th round

Maybe I don't hate him more than you, since 65% of you said you would not spend a first or second round pick on him: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/25/2731811/2012-senior-bowl-brandon-weeden-looks-sharp-but-does-it-matter Here was my quote: "lets take Chad Henne…..below average NFL QB, now lets send him back to college, replace Geno Smith at WVU with Chad Henne. The man might break every record there is"

It is almost an unfair advantage to have a 26-28 year old QB playing in college, his maturity/discipline coupled with one of the best offensive systems has lead me to doubt not only Weeden, but also....

10. Justin Blackmon: I called him the most overrated prospect in the draft, http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/17/2713736/most-overrated-draft-prospect-justin-blackmon since he was commonly mocked to be drafted by the Rams with the second pick. But I do feel like he is the best WR in THIS draft, just not in the same class as Fitzgerald, Calvin and Andre Johnson, or AJ Green and Julio. He is a very good player, however he is benefiting from the Dana Holgorson/Mike Gundy offense, and having a 28 year old quarterback.

Blackmon is the only one on my hate list that I still have as a first round pick, and I would take him in the top 12 for sure, perhaps top 6-10 if he runs faster than expected, but not top 5.

6’5″ 265 pounds, 4.7 est. 40 yard dash

Branch, a first-team Atlantic Coast Conference selection, was named a second-team All-American by the Walter Camp Foundation and was one of six finalists for the Ted Hendricks Defensive End of the Year Award.

With 16 tackles for loss, Branch is classified at Clemson as a "bandit end’’ who is apt to drop back in coverage, as well as pass rush.

Took over against Virginia Tech back in early October, helping the Tigers upset the Hokies on the road with 11 tackles and a ridiculous four sacks.

Atlanta's first choice in the 2012 NFL draft is the 55th pick. So why do I believe he could be a future Falcon?

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Fantasy football website Rotoworld.com has steadily increased it's NFL draft coverage (including some pretty good Senior Bowl coverage), and recently came out with their first mock draft of the year.

Somewhat new to draft analysis, they bring a different perspective, in that they are keenly aware of team needs, and offer objective stats, and not just opinions to support those needs. Such as this little known fact : "In 11 years at Rutgers, Schiano's offenses finished with more rushing attempts than passes nine times." (in explaining the selection of Trent Richardson with the Buc's #5 pick).

They went out on a limb on a few picks, such as having wide receivers Chris Givens and Brian Quick (of Wake Forest and Appalachian State respectively) in their first round.

Another surprise is having Boise State RB Doug Martin joining fellow RBs Lamar Miller, and Trent Richardson in the first round.

But perhaps the biggest surprise is who fell; WR Justin Blackmon does not get selected until the Jets pick (#16). This contrasts greatly with those who have Blackmon going #2 overall to the Rams http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/17/2713736/most-overrated-draft-prospect-justin-blackmon

You can read all of Evan Silva's mock draft : http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39842/60/mock-draft-10-blackmon-falls

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Oakland Raider Beat writer Steve Corkran suggested last week that McFadden could be dangled as a trade chip for new GM Reggie McKenzie. - per Rotoworld.com

This after, ESPN's John Clayton suggests the Raiders will have to decide whether to re-sign free agent Michael Bush or trade McFadden this offseason.

McFadden was considered a bust, at least until his breakout 2010 season, when he had over 1600 yards combined rushing and receiving.

In early 2011, he was perhaps the best RB in the league (along with McCoy) until once, again he got injured.

So the question is, what is Darren McFadden's trade value?

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Thirty five quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round since Peyton Manning was selected with the first pick in the 1998 draft.

It has universally accepted that Andrew Luck is the best quarterback prospect to come out since Manning, but is it possible Robert Griffin III is the second best?

Let's examine after the jump.

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Prior to last year, there has been at least one TE selected in the first round every year since 2000, but rarely more than one. Last year, the top TE prospect was Kyle Rudolph, but he suffered a season-ending injury during his last season at Notre Dame, and wasn't drafted until the Vikings picked him # 43.

Entering this season, it looked as though it could be two years in a row without a first round TE. During the season, a pair of juniors have emerged, with Clemson's Dwayne Allen, and Geogia's Orson Charles joining Stanford's Coby Fleener as possible 1st round prospects.

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At 6-0, 185 pounds, Chase Minnifield certainly has the body of an NFL cornerback, but is he worthy of a first round pick?

The previous two years has seen a pair of University of Virginia corners drafted at the top of the second round: Ras-I Dowling went 33rd in 2011, while Chris Cook went 34th in 2010. Is this the year a UVa corner is selected in the first 32 picks?

Chase Minnifield sat the Chick-fil-A Bowl game against Auburn due to the knee injury. After Christmas, he underwent a knee arthroscopy surgery to address floating cartilage particles that nagged him for most of the 2011 season, the procedure reportedly went well and Chase was expected to be back to full strength in roughly two weeks.

However, he was not able to participate in this year's Senior Bowl, something that along with missing the bowl game, may cause him to be a forgotten man during the draft process.

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Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill, who announced he would be leaving the Yellow Jackets for the 2012 draft, believes he can raise his stock and become one of the top wide receivers in upcoming draft. Despite Georgia Tech's run-heavy triple-option offense, they recently have produced two 1st round pick wide receivers - Demaryius Thomas in 2010, and Calvin Johnson in 2007. Although very unlikely to be a first round pick, the success of those two on the NFL level may make make GMs optimistic that Hill too can become a productive NFL receiver. Hill could be one of this years sleepers.

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For those of you preparing a mock draft, there are some historical lessons that you may want to consider. With this in mind, last year (one year ago yesterday) I created a list of players I felt would be first round draft choices. Three months prior to the 2011 NFL draft, I was correct on 24 of the 32. That may not seem like much, but it was better than Mel Kiper's January mock, one less than Todd Mcshay's January mock, and only three less than Mike Mayock's first mock which didn't come out until March 11th, 2011. Among others, we all missed on Christian Ponders rise to glory, and Da'Quan Bowers' fall from grace.

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/1/19/1944444/for-those-about-to-mock-we-salute-you

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Given the state of the Rams offense, I can excuse a few from "mocking" the Oklahoma State wide receiver to St Louis.

Peter Schrager (Fox Sports), Rob Rang (CBS Sports), and Wes Bunting (National Football Post) each have Blackmon being drafted #2 to the Rams along with four different NFL.com writers mocking Blackmon going 2nd in the 2012 NFL Draft.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfldraftscout-RobRang

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/indianapolis-colts-andrew-luck-cleveland-browns-robert-griffin-III-early-entry-mock-draft-011612

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Mock-Draft-Version-10.html

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts

However, as we get closer and closer to the draft, I believe this lunacy will diminish.

Recent history has a trio of WRs going 3rd overall : 2005 Braylon Edwards, 2004 Larry Fitzgerald, and 2003 Andre Johnson, but the last wideouts drafted 2nd overall was Calvin Johnson (2007), and draft bust Charles Rodgers (2003). Before that, you have to go back to Keyshawn Johnson (#1 overall) in 1996 before you will find a WR drafted with one of the first two picks.

Many, including former NFL QB Warren Moon have compared Blackmon to his former Oklahoma State Cowboy Dez Bryant. Moon said "He's like Dez Bryant with all of his brain cells. He's a guy that has all those skills that Dez Bryant has, but he's not the knucklehead that Dez Bryant has turned out to be with Dallas."

To me the best comparative to Blackmon is Michael Crabtree. Due to Crabtree's limited NFL success, many will see this as an insult to Justin Blackmon, but hear me out.

Both are listed at around 6-1 and 215, each has questions about their top end speed, both played in similar offenses in the Big 12, and both were wildly productive in those offenses.

Blackmon caught 111 receptions for 1782 yards and 20 touchdowns as a sophomore. He then came back and caught 121 balls for 1,522 yards and 18 touchdowns as a junior. While Crabtree had 134 receptions ( NCAA freshman record) for 1962 yards and 22 TD back in 2007, then followed that up with 97 catches for 1165 yards and 19 TDs as a soph.

Each were two time winners of the Biletnikoff Trophy given to the nations top collegiate wide receiver. Crabtree was the only freshman ever to win the award in 2007, then won again in 2008. Blackmon won the award both in 2010 and 2011.

Here is a scouting report I dug up on Crabtree: Big frame with nice muscle definition ... Does not drop easy passes ... Circus catch ability ... Attacks the football ... Times jump balls well and catches ball at the highest point possible ... Great footwork on sideline, showing the ability to keep both feet in bounds ... Has instincts; a reliable target who comes back to his quarterback and presents a window ... Physical at the line of scrimmage to beat press man coverage and at the goal line ... Gives effort as a blocker ... Elusive in the open field ... Nice acceleration from zero to top speed ... Clutch.

Undoubtedly, there will be those who point to Crabtree's "Diva" personality (a trait quite common in star WRs) and point to Blackmon's perceived squeaky clean image (despite his Oct. 2010 DUI arrest, when he was going 92 in a 60 MPH zone) as a reason Blackmon will justify being drafted higher than Crabtree (picked 10 in 2009).

But that may ignore the most compelling reason Blackmon should not be a top 5 pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

Those at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com proposed the shiny hood ornament theory years ago (an arguement against 1st round WRs)

The theory has three basic parts.

ONE – Wide receivers, for all their eye-catching flash and dash, are little more than shiny ornaments on the hood of an NFL offense. Oh, sure, they're nice to have. But they don't necessarily make your offense any better – and they rarely if ever make your team any better.

TWO – You should add a flashy wide receiver only when all the other pieces of a great team are in place

THREE – Even the greatest receivers of all time can make a big impact only when all those pieces are in place, and even then the impact is largely overstated. Even the great Jerry Rice, for example, touched the ball just four to five times per game. Rice did not make the 49ers a great team. He was drafted by the 18-1 defending Super Bowl champ 49ers in 1985.
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/Archive_3677_A_CHFF_theory_elevated_to_Man_Law.html

Here is a list of all the wide receivers drafted in the 1st round since 2001, recent success aside, look at the high "bust" rate.

2011

AJ Green, Georgia (4th Pick - Cincinnati)

Julio Jones, Alabama (6th pick - Atlanta)

Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburg (26th pick- KC)

2010
Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver)

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas)
2009
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland)

Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco)

Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia)
Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota)
Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (29th pick - NY Giants)
Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee)

2008
No wide receivers selected in first round.

2007
Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech (2nd pick - Detroit)
Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (9th pick – Miami)
Dwayne Bowe, LSU (23rd pick - Kansas City)
Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans)
Craig Davis, LSU (30th pick - San Diego)
Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State (32nd pick- Indianapolis)

2006
Santonio Holmes, Ohio State (25th pick - Pittsburgh)

2005
Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland)
Troy Williamson, South Carolina (7th pick – Minnesota)
Mike Williams, USC (10th pick – Detroit)
Matt Jones, Arkansas (21st pick – Jacksonville)
Mark Clayton, Oklahoma (22nd pick – Baltimore)
Roddy White, UAB (27th pick – Atlanta)

2004
Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh (3rd pick – Arizona)
Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit)
Reggie Williams, Washington (9th pick – Jacksonville)

Lee Evans, Wisconcin ( 13th -- Buffalo Bills)
Michael Jenkins, Ohio State (29th pick – Atlanta)
Rashaun Woods, Oklahoma State (31st pick – San Francisco)

2003

Charles Rogers, Michigan State (2nd pick – Detroit)
Andre Johnson, Miami-FL (3rd pick – Houston)
Bryant Johnson, Penn State (17th pick – Arizona)

2002
Donte Stallworth, Tennessee (13th pick, New Orleans)
Ashley Lelie, Hawaii (19th pick - Denver)
Javon Walker, Florida State (20th pick – Green Bay)

2001
David Terrell, Michigan (8th pick – Chicago)
Koren Robinson, NC State (9th pick – Seattle)
Rod Gardner, Clemson (15th pick – Washington)
Santana Moss, Miami-FL (16th pick - NY Jets)
Freddie Mitchell, UCLA (25th pick – Philadelphia)
Reggie Wayne, Miami-FL (30th pick – Indianapolis)

Here is another excellent article from ESPN: The perils of drafting WRs early

Average season for wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2001 .

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6396194

Lastly, here is an article written all the way back in 2001 by Len Pasquarelli titled History proves receivers tough to gage: http://www.cbssports.com/b/page/pressbox/0,1328,3771752,00.html

Not much has changed since then....

At  this point, it is impossible to know for sure what underclassmen will enter the draft.  

History shows us that most underclassmen will leave if  "advised" they will likely be a first round pick....with that, I have added many Juniors to the big board, however there are several notables left off.  

If Oklahoma QB Landry Jones, Florida State DB Xavier Rhodes, and Alabama OT DJ Fluker chose to leave early (Rhodes and Fluker are draft-eligible redshirt sophmores) they will likely "bump" one of the top 32 down the list.  Despite the Red River Shootout, Landry Jones has not impressed me as anything better than the 4th or 5th best QB, and Rhodes has been burned deep a couple of times already.  Fluker is huge, and college RTs are getting drafted higher than in the past.  I think these three should stay in college.

Recent injuries have kept Miami DT Marcus Forston and FSU LT Andrew Datko from the list, and removed Oregon's LaMichael James from the top 50.

Jared Crick needed a JJ Watt-like performance at some point this year to compensate for the fact that he is not an elite athlete.  Now that he is out for the year with a torn peck, he wont have that opportunity, but his body (6'6/285) and hustle will peak the interest of many 3-4 teams.

Kirkpatrick needs to quit giving up touchdowns and other big plays, and Coples needs to create more pressure to remain in the top 10.

I am "all-in " with Robert Griffin and Melvin Ingram (who I see as a more athletic Brandon Graham), and expect to be one of the very few to put Ohio State's LT Mike Adams and USC's pass-rusher Nick Perry (just a hunch) in the first round.

Inside LBs historically are undervalued, thus I only have one of each going in the first round.

I have Manti Te’o, Luke Kuechly, Don’ta Hightower, Robert Lester,  Markelle Martin, Ray-Ray Armstrong, and Mark Barron going lower than most. 

Osemele's size won out over better technicians Konz and DeCastro.

I have 5 WRs as first round picks.  Floyd, Sanu, and Fuller are going to have North Carolina's Dwight Jones and others breathing down their necks.

Last year was the first time in 10 years that a Tight End didn't go in the first round, and entering the season it looked like it might be two in a row......however, a pair of juniors have emerged, and it is very possible either Clemson's Dwayne Allen or Geogia's Orson Charles end up going in the first. 

Five corners may not be enough for the first round??

Corners more than other positions move up and down during the post-season evaluations, since it is easy for QBs to avoid throwing in the direction of elite CBs.  Desmond Trufant and Casey Hayward have a little more size than Brandon Boykin, Cliff Harris, and Greg Reid.  Keep them in mind when considering your second round mocks!!

Who did I forget?

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Not very likely, although he does have a shot at second place.

After four games, Julio is averaging 85.5 yards/game.  If he continues at that current place, that will give him 1368 yards, assuming  he plays all 16 games.

Back in 1960, Bill Groman set an NFL record 1473 yards (in 14 games),  a record that still stands today.

Anquan Boldin had the second best year for a rookie WR (in terms of yardage) with 1377 in 2003. 

In addition to being second place in yardage, Boldin is also the record holder for receptions by a rookie, with 101.  

Julio has 24 catches after 4 games, which could give him 96 by the end of the year, 6 more than the 2nd place Terry Glenn (1996).

Keep up the good work!

From ESPN,   Read more: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/40488/a-much-closer-look-at-2011-nfl-draft

The NFL has become so specialized, particularly on defense, that players are increasingly difficult to categorize. Seeking fresh perspective on the 2011 draft, I reclassified the 254 players chosen into 20 positional categories, based largely on how teams plan to use them. The process was imperfect because teams view players differently, and some players transcend easy categorization. But patterns that emerged were helpful in bringing the big picture into clearer focus. 

Overall, this draft featured 37 cornerbacks; 28 wide receivers; 24 running backs; 21 interior offensive linemen; 20 offensive tackles; 16 safeties; 13 tight ends; 12 quarterbacks; 12 4-3 weakside linebackers; 11 4-3 defensive tackles; 10 4-3 defensive ends; 10 3-4 outside linebackers; eight five-technique defensive ends; seven 3-4 inside linebackers; seven fullbacks; six 4-3 middle linebackers; four 4-3 strongside linebackers; four nose tackles; and two specialists. Two defensive linemen -- Kansas City's Allen Bailey and Baltimore's Pernell McPhee -- qualified as nickel pass-rushers. 

2011 NFL Draft: Specific Positions by Round