dwintheiser
Mar 26, 2008 May 30, 2012 54 289
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Good stat. Evidence of bad approach.
Nick Nelson's Twitter feed, commenting on an observation that Trevor Plouffe had been in 26 0-2 counts versus just 15 2-0 counts.
Of course, according to baseballreference.com, the entire AL in 2012 has been in 0-2 counts 2259 times, while sitting 2-0 just 668 times.
If Plouffe has a "bad approach", I'd hate to see what a pitiful one would look like...
5 days ago
dwintheiser
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Dodgers sign Chris Capuano
Reported to be a 2 year, $10 million deal.
Plouffe and player needs
by dwintheiser on Nov 10, 2011 3:20 PM EST
on Twinkie Town
Got into a short Twitter discussion with Nick Nelson yesterday regarding this list of Twins players who will be playing winter ball. Nick's comment:
According to @LaVelleNeal, the #Twins asked Trevor Plouffe to play winter ball this year and he declined. Hard to understand that...
I responded:
If your boss asked you to go to Venezuela for three months, what would you say?
Turns out that Twitter isn't the best place to try to communicate a multi-layered argument, so my later responses weren't all that illuminating. I'll explain better what I mean below the jump.
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The All-Value Team: Challenges
by dwintheiser on Apr 26, 2011 10:27 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
So, let's say you put together a roster of 25 players, according to a particular set of guidelines. (For purposes of this thought experiment, let's call you...DJL44.) You look over the roster you've assembled and think, "Man, this group of players could totally win the pennant!"
But then some other guy comes along. (Let's call him...me.) He says, "Dude, what are you smoking? That team would be lucky to break .500."
What's your response? Do you have a response that doesn't ultimately boil down to "nuh-uh"?
The All-Value Team: Methodology
by dwintheiser on Apr 4, 2011 11:15 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In 2004, the Minnesota Twins prepared to introduce their fans and the league to their celebrated #1 draft pick, Joe Mauer. So confident were they that Mauer's introduction would go well that they traded their valuable (if relatively unspectacular) former starting catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for three pitchers.
Then, in the second game of the season, Mauer suffered a knee injury. To replace him, the Twins brought in Henry Blanco, who had a good April (hitting .262 with 3 HR and 10 RBI) but who slumped afterward to the point where his only real value to the team was his ability to play catcher (he finished the season 5.5 runs above replacement, which included a +7.5 RAR adjustment for being a regular catcher). [Others may point out that Pat Borders also caught for the Twins, but Borders played in just 19 games and hit .286/683 as a Twin, so he was adding only marginal value as well.]
Mauer eventually returned from his injury, but his limited play only allowed him to post a WAR total nearly identical to that of Luis Rivas.
Despite all this, the Twins repeated as AL Central champions for the third year in a row.
The All-Value Team, Introduction
by dwintheiser on Apr 1, 2011 3:35 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
I didn't put together a list of 'Shadow Twins' this year, mainly because I didn't think of it, but also because, by this time, we pretty much know most of the key Twins, don't we? I mean, sure, a certain percentage of us can chuckle at the rage invoked by pointing out - again - how Jason Kendall is one of Joe Mauer's best of-age comps (and this year we could have added the schadenfreude that comes with pointing out that Derek Jeter is also now one of Mauer's best of-age comps, despite being a shortstop instead of a catcher), but do we really need to? The only real mysteries are a) how is Nishioka going to do this year (and a perusal of baseballreference.com comps isn't going to answer that) and b) how's the bullpen going to hold up?
Instead, I got a look at Joe Posnanski's "The 32 Best Players in Baseball in 2011", and it got me thinking...
Neyer endearing himself to Twinkie Town?
Don't let the title of the essay fool you; the gist of Neyer's quick blog post is that the idea that the Twins 'lost some key pieces' and shouldn't be expected to contend for the AL Central in 2011 seems silly, given the 'pieces' they didn't have in 2010.
Might be just a matter of time before he's commenting here regularly...
Uggla traded to Braves for Infante, pitcher
Cross Dan Uggla off your Christmas wish list -- he's a Brave, and the Atlanta front office is talking about a long-term deal.
The Myth of the Perfect Call
by dwintheiser on Oct 8, 2010 12:20 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
Tonight was the night I finally tired of the seemingly inexhaustible argument in favor of adding instant replay to baseball.
Perhaps I won't convince you, but I'll take my shot right here.
The argument in favor of instant replay (as opposed to the argument against not adding instant replay, which is different) is that MLB should make the effort to ensure that as many calls as possible are called correctly. Sadly, that's a crock.
The WPA graph of last night's Twins/Yankees ALDS contest, based on my Twitter feed.
over 1 year ago
dwintheiser
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TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report -- Recap
by dwintheiser on Oct 4, 2010 1:49 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which the season concludes and lessons are, perhaps, learned.
For the Cy, well...
by dwintheiser on Sep 12, 2010 4:16 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
Lately, the 2010 Cy Young debate has started to fire up, and the big conversation thus far appears to be between C.C. Sabathia, owner of an impressive won-lost record pitching for the Yankees, and 'King' Felix Hernandez, owner of a dismal won-loss record pitching for the dismal Mariners, but with impressive secondary numbers -- which some folks are arguing are even better than Sabathia's.
Joe Posnanski put together an informal comparison of Sabathia's and Hernandez's individual starts, and while he warns that this study is 'just for fun' and doesn't claim to make any definitive statement about Sabathia v Hernandez in the Cy race, he does use the results to justify the Hernandez love that many who follow the newfangled xFIP and similar stats have for Hernandez in this argument.
Then, in the comments, somebody had to mention Francisco Liriano...
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Bertrand Russell's Pennant Rule
by dwintheiser on Sep 9, 2010 5:45 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
The British mathematician and philosopher Bertrand Russell, in his Reflections on Ethics 19, put together a series of secular commandments analogous to the Christian Ten Commandments. The first of those is particularly applicable to Twins fans:
1. Do not feel absolutely certain of anything.
Sure, the Twins are up six over the Sox with only a handful of games left to play, but the recent history of the Central should demonstrate that such a lead is hardly the lead-pipe cinch folks like Rob Neyer ("White Sox now 6 back with 22 to play. Turn out the lights, the party's over...", from his Twitter feed) seem to imagine.
Recent history after the jump.
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Not Looking For a Big Bump
by dwintheiser on Aug 25, 2010 1:18 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
Reading through the TwinsGeek's latest essay, "Looking for a Bump?", I found myself intrigued at the sort of double-standard being displayed. On the one hand, the Geek seems to presume, as others have, that with Target Field now open for a full year and with various revenue enhancements more solidly demonstrable, the Twins would use that additional revenue to increase their payroll. On the other hand, the evidence presented by the Geek from previous stadium openings suggests an average that is far smaller, with the largest positive outliers having additional complicating factors that make them less useful as examples of what the Twins might do in a similar situation.
I tried putting together a quick response, but Blogger ate my response (as happens sometimes), so I decided to throw in some additional research and post my reply here. Quick summary for those uninterested in making the jump: It's probable, in my view, that payroll will increase only slightly, by about 10%.
[Edit - a sharp commenter noted that I misread the entry for Joe Mauer's new contract, and that his +$10M+ bump is coming next year, not this year. This pretty much raises the expected Twins payroll bump right into TwinsGeek's predicted range of $20M, or possibly even more, which means my whole premise is shot. On the other hand, it's a bit sobering to realize that Twins' payroll obligations could rise by $20-25M because of just three players [Mauer, Liriano, Young], none of whom are new free agents and any of whom could fall off in 2011.)
How good has Delmon been this spring?
From, of all people, political reporter Eric Black of MinnPost. (Though I imagine he'd identify as a contrarian as well.)
Can we stop the 'first ballot' thing yet?
Maybe Bert's Off-Base?
by dwintheiser on Jun 6, 2010 4:34 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
The TwinsGeek has put together three very thoughtful essays on the subject of pitch counts, analyzing work by Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner to suggest that the 100-pitch limit used by just about every major league manager these days is actually woefully conservative for the stated goal -- keeping young pitchers' arms healthy.
I think there's an alternate explanation for the popularity of the 100-pitch limit, though, and it has little if anything to do with Jazayerli's and Woolner's work.
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Yes, it's another set of Delmon Young age comparisons
- Denard Span is two years older than Delmon Young.
- J.J. Hardy is three years older than Delmon Young.
- Jason Kubel is four years older than Delmon Young.
- Delmon Young is less than a year older than Trevor Plouffe.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report - Week Eight
by dwintheiser on Jun 1, 2010 12:24 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which a long hiatus is finally broken, and alternate universes are explored.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report -- Week Five
by dwintheiser on May 10, 2010 11:09 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which a perfeclty good essay topic is shot to heck by despair.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report - Week Four
by dwintheiser on May 4, 2010 1:46 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which limits are discussed, and the reasons for them.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report - Week Three
by dwintheiser on Apr 27, 2010 2:52 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which two sources of disillusionment are discussed.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report: Week Two
by dwintheiser on Apr 19, 2010 5:56 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which some surprisingly good and disappointingly bad starts are pointed out.
TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report: Week One
by dwintheiser on Apr 13, 2010 4:00 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which some trades are completed and a demon awakened.
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TTFBL Bottomfeeder's Report: Draft Night
by dwintheiser on Apr 5, 2010 9:40 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
In which lessons are learned and a handful of players go for wildly inappropriate prices.
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Neifi Perez - Bad Baseball Hall of Famer
"The worst player in the major leagues is a hell of a ballplayer. The worst player in the history of the major leagues, whoever he was, was a hell of a ballplayer. Neifi Pérez was a hell of a ballplayer." - King Kaufman
And Nick Punto is even better!
Nick Punto - Whiplash Man
by dwintheiser on Feb 11, 2010 11:50 PM EST
on Twinkie Town
Little Nicky Punto. What can you say about him that hasn't already been said?
Well, how about this:
- Nick Punto is almost certainly the most inconsistent offensive player ever to wear a Twins uniform.
- When he first arrived in Minnesota, I didn't care about him, but I slowly grew to dislike him.
- Then, after sticking around for a few years, I've grown to really like him, but for no reason that makes any rational sense.
The New Mr. October?
by dwintheiser on Oct 4, 2009 3:11 AM EDT
on Twinkie Town
Time for a player A/player B:
A - 95 PA, 29 H, 5 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .330/823
B - 104 PA, 32 H, 7 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 18 RBI, .344/869
Player B is Delmon Young in games in September and October of this season.
Player A is...Delmon Young in games in September and October of 2008.
By comparison, Reggie Jackson's career regular-season Sept./Oct. numbers, on a per 100 PA rate:
100 PA, 23 H, 4 2B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, .254/821
(Update: Edited to include Games 161 & 162)
Dialing back the Leverage Index
by dwintheiser on Aug 30, 2009 3:10 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
We're living in an age of baseball analysis where new measures and ways of looking at the numbers of the game seem to reveal fresh insights as to how the game should be played. In some cases, though, we should really take a closer look at how we're interpreting that new knowledge, because it's not always as impressive as we think it is
Case in point, the 'leverage index'.
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Gaaaaah!
by dwintheiser on Jul 8, 2009 10:58 PM EDT
on Twinkie Town
Guys, I don't think I can handle it anymore -- the undeserved love for Carlos Gomez, and the undeserved hate for Delmon Young.
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