Happened across this post over on Athletics Nation:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/152910/608

No idea what changes they've been working on, but hopefully there will be some things John can incorporate on his blog to improve functionality and decrease the shenanigans.

Here's another link to the story, since I have nothing else useful to add and need to hit 300 characters.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/152910/608

The "Barry debate" for me is a difficult one, because I think it's a much bigger issue than just "Should we cheer or boo Barry Bonds for his accomplishments?"

To me, this is what baseball should be about:

I must admit, I'm quite disillusioned by major league baseball today. Sure, cheating has always been part of baseball... stealing signs, scuffing balls, greenies, groupies, etc, etc. But wasn't there once a little integrity, honor, respect? Maybe the media just looked the other way in the old days, but all I see today is people in pursuit of cold hard cash, and complaining when they don't get enough of it thrown at them.

It just seems to me they've managed to take a kid's game and allow it to be warped into a business where only the greedy prosper. I've got a daughter who is almost two, another kid on the way, and I have no idea how I'll talk to them about baseball, in particular people like Bonds. A widely acknowledged miserable SOB who has been accused of cheating by taking steroids, accused of cheating on his taxes, accused of cheating on his wife, but has an incredible gift for playing a game, and is rewarded to the tune of $20 million a year to do so. Not to mention the money over and above that from licensing deals, as he felt he could make more money through independent licensing deals, instead of through the MLBPA. "Kids, he was a great player, one of the best to ever play the game. But don't be like him. Well, unless you want fame and fortune, then we may have some tough decisions ahead of us. Just remember, if anyone asks, this is flaxseed oil."

But the point of this ramble isn't Barry Lamar Bonds. It's about baseball, a game that I love to play, love to watch. Is there anything quite like the bright green grass in the outfield on a gorgeous summer day? The sights, sounds and smells of a friendly ballpark? I love the nuances of the game, as a shortstop plays a touch deeper in the hole with a runner on first, to increase his range knowing his throw will go to second base. The chess game between pitcher and catcher against batter. The third base coach flashing some crazy hand signals across the diamond. The runner at first stretching his lead an inch more, two inches more, as that could be the difference between safe and out as he digs his feet in and races for second. The umpire's hand punching the air to signal a called strike three. A stunned batter, staring down at the plate wondering how the heck he could let that pitch go by without swinging.

Maybe I'm too cynical. Maybe I'm too idealistic. I dunno. I know that I don't watch as much baseball as I used to. I don't expect it to change, I realize baseball is a business, first and foremost. First and only, really. I don't expect a resolution, I don't expect people to agree, just wanted to vent some frustration. And thus I endeth my ramble.

Just noticed this, for those out there who want to see what privileges membership has, or who are too cheap to spend the money. Baseball Prospectus has a free preview of all their content thru July 15.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

WHAT'S THIS ABOUT A FREE PREVIEW?

Most of our content is only available to those with a Baseball Prospectus Premium subscription. From July 9 to 15, however, everyone can access the great baseball content and stats that subscribers get year-round.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/freepreview.php

From CBS Sportsline:

News: The Twins plan to promote pitcher Matt Garza from Triple-A Rochester in time for Friday night's game at Detroit. "Garza will pitch out of the bullpen, but probably start one of the doubleheader games next Friday at Chicago," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said Thursday.

Analysis: Garza is 4-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 16 starts at Rochester. After starting 2006 at Class A, Garza quickly worked his way up to the Twins. Often relying on his fastball, he was 3-6 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts for Minnesota last year. "He knows he can't survive on just a fastball. Hopefully, he's worked on that," catcher Joe Mauer said. Consider the top prospect in deeper leagues for Fantasy Week 14 (July 1-8), especially since he is expected to get a start.

Guess we'll finally find out how those other pitches are coming along...

So still no word on who the Twins will call up to start Saturday, but some interesting developments.

Seems it won't be Slowey, who threw 102 pitches last night and would have to pitch on short rest. Surely that won't happen.

Elsewhere, Ortiz got blasted again, and sounds like the Twins may have finally realized exactly what he's capable of. Seriously, at the beginning of the year, who would have thought Ponson and Ortiz would be that bad? Everyone? Well, yeah.

And it looks like Crain may be headed to the DL. My hunch is that the Twins will actually call up two starters - one to replace Ponson and one to replace Ortiz, and then banish Ortiz to mop-up duty in the pen.

Personally I'm hoping for Garza on Saturday, though his AAA numbers so far are the worst of the three.

Has anyone seen Anibal Sanchez pitch this year? I'm curious if he's looked as bad as his stats. Didn't get out of the 4th today against the Mets.

Yes, it's a small sample size, but clearly seems to be something going on, is the offseason shoulder soreness still there?

2006 (114+ IP, 17 starts) vs 2007 (30 IP, 6 starts)

2006. 7.1 h/9, 3.6 bb/9, 5.7 k/9
      
2007. 12.9 h/9, 5.7 bb/9, 4.2 k/9

OK, maybe it's late, or maybe I've finally lost my last marble, but does anyone else see a resemblance between Zack Greinke and Earthworm Jim???

http://images.sportsline.com/images/baseball/mlb/players/60x80/390851.jpg

http://images.quizilla.com/R/radiopillows/1035442077_result-jim.jpg

I've also found that "Greinke!" is a great substitute curse word when I'm within earshot of my daughter.

Interesting article on Yahoo: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-behindthestats&prov=ap&type=lgns

Great stuff: The most unhittable pitches in baseball
By TOM KOCH-WESER, STATS Analyst

Phillies GM Pat Gillick recently said Cole Hamels, his prized 23-year old southpaw, had the best changeup he'd ever seen from a left-hander.

Not exactly a source of objectivity, Gillick's statement might otherwise be dismissed as reeking of bias from a proud boss.

But what if he's right? And how can we tell?

Scouts often speak of pitchers with "plus" or "plus-plus" offerings, usually referring to where a particular pitch falls on the 20-80 scouting scale in terms of both velocity and movement. But if we dig a little deeper, which pitches - given their speed, movement and deception - are actually the most unhittable in the game?

While there's no exact way to measure a pitch's "nastiness," we can come close to quantifying it by assuming a basic baseball tenet: In almost all cases, the most ideal outcome for a pitcher on a given pitch is to have the hitter miss. As such, we can measure great stuff by using the "Whiff Rate".

The Whiff Rate is simply defined as the total number of swings and misses over the total number of swings. Assuming that the primary goal of a batter is to make contact, we can use this ratio to see who has the best "out" pitch - and to find out what it is.

Assuming a minimum sample size of 200 swings for fastballs and 100 swings for anything off speed, we can see who coaxed the highest percentage of whiffs a season ago. And, as it turns out, Gillick might not be far off in his assessment.

Hamels consistently delivered the most unhittable changeup in 2006, producing a Whiff Rate of .514, the leading figure by a significant margin over Colorado closer Brian Fuentes, who posted a rate of .460, and Arizona's Brandon Webb (.454).

Johan Santana, widely considered to have the best change in the game, finished the year at .450, fourth among qualifiers. To his credit, Santana also delivered his changeup more frequently in the strike zone (38.6 percent) than anyone in the top five, while opposing hitters slugged a meager .221 against it, also the best of the group.

Hamels' teammate, Ryan Madson, ranked fifth at .426.

While those players are certainly dominant when it comes to the premier off-speed pitch, the mantle of the most unhittable pitch in 2006 goes to the slider of Fernando Cabrera.

Cleveland's young reliever recorded a Whiff Rate of .652 on that breaking ball, and, if you think that's a fluke, think again. Had Cabrera qualified the year before, 2006 would have been the second consecutive season his slider led the league. In 2005, Cabrera posted an eye-popping Whiff Rate of .762, though in limited action (42 swings).

Interestingly, Cabrera only threw his slider in the strike zone 28.6 percent of the time, well below the major league average of 41.6 percent. In other words, he makes the pitch unhittable with a late bite that places the ball outside the plate or in the dirt much of the time.

Houston reliever Brad Lidge, recently demoted from the closer role, was once as dominant as any pitcher in the game with a slider that pushed his rate of strikeouts per nine innings to nearly 15 in 2004. While he's struggled mightily over the past year, his trademark offering is still effective with a Whiff Rate of .594, second behind Cabrera.

That rate also stands up as the second-most dominant pitch of any type overall. In fact, sliders make up the top three Whiff Rates from 2006, as the Cubs' Scott Eyre is third at (.515), just ahead of Hamels' changeup. Florida's Jorge Julio (.503) and the Cubs' Michael Weurtz (.503) round out the top five sliders.

But enough about secondary pitches. The most basic - and important - pitch in baseball is the fastball.

If we were to think of the hardest throwers in the game, Detroit set-up man Joel Zumaya would be one of the first to come up. His average heater hit a league-high 98.6 mph and he notched triple digits on the radar gun more routinely (261 times) than anyone else in '06. But does that velocity translate to missed pitches?

Indeed it does - although there were a select few that threw fastballs that were even tougher to get wood on.

For the second consecutive year, Arizona closer Jose Valverde led the majors in fastball Whiff Rate, posting a .315 in 2006. There's clearly something deceptive about Valverde's short, stabby arm action and low arm angle, visual features that only add to the difficulty of making contact with an explosive 94 mph four-seamer.

Valverde also threw 54.5 percent of his fastballs in the strike zone, a higher percentage than any of the top five fastball Whiff Rate leaders and well above the league average of 51.1 percent.

Perhaps the most interesting entry on the list is Chris Schroder, by any other means an also-ran reliever in the Nationals system who is currently pitching for Triple-A Columbus. Yet Schroder had the second-highest fastball Whiff Rate in the league last year at .313. Schroder has a similar arm action to that of Valverde's, but, interestingly, throws 3 mph slower (90.5), a velocity that is almost perfectly league average.

Dodgers closer Takashi Saito (.306) ranked third, trailed by the Mariners' J.J. Putz (.293). Zumaya (.275) rounded out the top five.

Another Cabrera tops the list when it comes to curveballs. Baltimore's Daniel, who throws the hardest power-curve in the game at 84.7 mph, also possesses the one that's most difficult to hit (.513 WR). We see a correlation between speed and Whiff Rate when it comes to the curveball, as fellow hard-throwers Francisco Rodriguez (.494) and A.J. Burnett (.453) come in at No. 2 and 3.

Two of the premier sinkerballers in the game, Webb and Derek Lowe, prove that a solid complement to a good sinker is a good curve as those two trail Burnett at .438 and .397, respectively. Webb, the NL Cy Young Award winner, was fittingly the only pitcher to appear in the top five for two different pitches.

So the next time a player, manager or GM comes up with seemingly exaggerated accolades for a pitcher's stuff, don't just take it at face value. A little analysis will most times prove it's just hollow praise. But sometimes, like in the case of Hamels, he just might be telling the truth.

So the D-Rays are apparently close to signing gold-glove 3B Iwamura.

http://tampabay.devilrays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061214&content_id=1761003&am p;vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb

Presumably this means BJ Upton will have to learn another position. Of course the outfield is full, barring trades. What's left... DH? 1B? 2B? Or maybe they can leave him in AAA for a couple more years.

Personally I hope they trade Upton so he can get a fresh start on another club.

Not to add to the recent Bavasi bashing, but Seattle just signed Miguel Batista to a 3/$25. So $8+/yr may not be bad for starting pitching this offseason, but Batista turns 36 in the spring, with a career 68-79 record and career 1.46 whip.

I guess you could argue he's not that much worse than Meche (55-44, career 1.44 whip), but Meche is at least 28 so has age in his favor.

I'm not sure what kind of numbers to expect out of Batista pitching as a 36, 37, and 38 year old, even in Safeco. It might not be pretty.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AnwpD7zWr9zGoHsnFYrTOMQRvLYF?slug=ap-mariners-batista&prov =ap&type=lgns

Question for dialogue/debate: Of the following 9 outfielders, which one would you want? Assume we're talking expansion draft, and you can just take one. No concern for team needs, just take the guy who will contribute the most value for your team for the foreseeable future.

These are all guys that debuted last year. I didn't include Delmon as I expect he'd be the consensus choice. (I realize there are people who would take several guys below before they took Delmon, but still, let's leave him out of the discussion. Let's just say he's not available.) Here are the 9, ranked in order by last year's grade:

Quentin, Carlos -- 2006 grade: A;  2007 grade: n/a
.872 OPS in 166 MLB ABs last year, but his stock seems to have dropped a bit. I guess that's based on a slight decline in AAA numbers, but I'm still surprised there's not more buzz about him for 2007.

Markakis, Nick -- 2006 grade: A-;  2007 grade: n/a
John's CB: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/8/18/20410/1436
He had a lousy start to the year, then started tearing it up. Certainly seems he has a long career ahead of him, maybe not eye popping numbers, but solid across the board.

Young, Chris B. -- 2006 grade: A-;  2007 grade: A- (almost a B+)
Some concern about batting average, but everything else projects well. Does he get some extra love for being a great defensive CFer?

Milledge, Lastings -- 2006 grade: A-;  2007 grade: n/a
John's CB: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/9/6/164143/1213
Great raw tools, some question of strike zone judgement. How often do we see that statement about prospects? Interesting in looking at a poll from about a year ago: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/11/141554/64
Milledge was far and away voted to have a better career than Delmon Young. I think that vote might be flipped now, even with Delmon's Durham "vacation" this year.

Jones, Adam -- 2006 grade: B+;  2007 grade: tbd
Unimpressive MLB debut, and the Mariners OF looks full, so maybe he gets a good chunk of time in AAA this year, which could be a good thing.

Ethier, Andre -- 2006 grade: B;  2007 grade: n/a
John's CB: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/11/19/132642/75
Certainly a solid first season, but seems like his ceiling is a lot lower than most everyone else on the list

Kemp, Matt -- 2006 grade: B;  2007 grade: n/a
John's CB: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/6/16/164950/429
Great raw tools, some question of strike zone judgement. Had a great stretch last year, but tailed off miserably. Is he good, or will he be great?

Lind, Adam -- 2006 grade: B-;  2007 grade: A-
Stock has really jumped a ton this year, is he really a lock to put up good numbers? Some talk of AL ROY potential, which is a long way from last year's B- grade.

Cabrera, Melky -- 2006 grade: B-;  2007 grade: n/a
Yankee fans will surely disagree, but seems destined to be a 4th OF. But he did have a good season. How would he fare in a lineup not as strong as the Yankees?

Jeez, the hits just keep on coming for Snelling...

Seattle OF Snelling placed on DL

SEATTLE (AP) -- The Seattle Mariners placed oft-injured outfielder Chris Snelling on the 15-day disabled list Thursday with an injured left shoulder.

Snelling was called up from Triple-A Tacoma before Wednesday's game against Toronto, but did not play. After the game, team officials said Snelling was being optioned back to Tacoma.

Instead, Snelling was placed on the DL after Mariners' trainers examined his shoulder.

"Our plan was to option Chris back to Tacoma today," Mariners' general manager Bill Bavasi said. "However, he's been on the medical report in Tacoma and when our trainers examined him here prior to yesterday's game, they recommended he not play outfield for several days.

"We determined the proper and fair thing to do would be to place him on the disabled list until he's fully healthy prior to optioning him back off the roster."

Snelling was hitting .247 with four homers and 34 RBIs in 52 games at Tacoma. He started the season on the DL after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-mariners-snelling&prov=ap&type=lgns

So it seems there's been a ton of prospects to already hit the bigs this year. Instead of looking at the best of who is still in the minors, here's a variation - of the prospects called up so far this year, who will make the biggest contributions to their MLB team over the next 5-10 years? Define "contribution" however you want - can be strictly statistical, or maybe just by filling a gaping hole on the big club.

A list of names I've come up with (surely have missed some) that have been called up this year, along with John's grade from this year (or last year in some cases)...

A
Liriano, Verlander, Quentin, Marte

A-
Markakis, Kendrick, Milledge, Drew, Billingsley, Pelfrey, Hansen

B+
Morales, Weaver, Olsen, Hamels, An. Reyes, Lester, Zumaya, A. Sanchez, Y. Petit

B
H.Ramirez, R.Martin, Willingham, Barfield, Kinsler, Ethier

B-
Kemp, J.Johnson, Bonser, Wainwright

C+
Uggla, Napoli, Loney, Buchholz

John's grades always give a great starting point for expectation of future contributions. Liriano and Verlander are obviously already contributing hugely, so they're no-brainers. From what you've seen so far, who do you move up or down the list?

(Some of these guys may have had a few ABs or IPs last year, like Liriano, but are essentially newcomers this year.)

OK, so John's obviously dealing with things like a brand-new radio show, buying a house, prepping for the draft, etc, etc. So I thought I could help out by diverting attention to matters other than baseball, albeit no less important. Time for Cheesecake Smackdown. We're purposely staying away from obvious top 10 candidates, in honor of those scouring the draft boards for underrated talent this weekend.

Vanessa Marcil vs. Jaime Pressly

Background and Intangibles
Marcil: She is of Mexican, French, Italian and Portuguese descent, grew up in poverty and was arrested several times as a juvenile. Had a son with Brian Austin Green and lives with him (the son, not the gawky kid from 90210).
Pressly: Born to a used car salesman in North Carolina. Trained for 11 years as a gymnast, was international model. Never married.
Advantage: On the surface, the gymnast and international model would seem to have the advantage. But we're inclined to go with the multi-ethnicity law breaker, despite the love child with BAG. Too close to call.

Physicality and Tools
Marcil: 5'4", 36 years old. #55 on Maxim's Hot List for 2006.
Pressly: 5'5", 28 years old. #34 on Maxim's Hot List for 2006.
Advantage: For a bar brawl, you'd go with Pressly's character from "Earl". But in a catfight, my money is on Marcil, who seems to have that smoldering intensity thing down. And she's been arrested. Heck, in a catfight between these two, are there any losers? Slight edge to Marcil.

Performance and Skills
Marcil: Plays Sam Marquez on "Las Vegas", is a former soap star, has had numerous TV appearances along with a number of really mediocre movies. Did Head and Shoulders commercials.
Pressly: Plays Joy on "My Name is Earl", and been in a whole slew of mediocre movies and brief TV appearances. Notably posed for Playboy.
Advantage: Hmm, long soap opera career versus long B movie career. Guess the edge goes to the one who took her clothes off. Slight edge to Pressly.

Projection
Marcil: Will keep looking hot in "Las Vegas".
Pressly: Will be in this year's "DOA: Dead or Alive", a movie adaptation of the video game.
Advantage: They'll both keep looking good, but edge here has to go to youth, as Pressly's age-to-level indicators are a little better.

Summary
Probably depends on whether you prefer blondes or brunettes, but both of them have some mighty fine intangibles. Who do you like? Pictures below, and don't miss the poll.

I'm seldom a Peter Gammons fan, but stumbled across this preview of the 2001 draft. Some pretty fascinating stats and really interesting to look back on the scouting "consensus" - some of the names that panned out and some that were never heard again. Definitely worth a read five years later.

http://espn.go.com/gammons/s/2001/0602/1208718.html

Here's one snippet (keep in mind this is 2001):

"From 1987, when baseball went to one draft, through 1997, there were 60 high school pitchers taken in the first round. Of those, 11 have at least .500 major-league records, 24 never made the majors and only Avery has won more than 50 games. In that time, the following were taken in the top eight picks of the first round: Willie Banks, Dan Opperman, Brien Taylor, Steve Avery, Kurt Miller, Kirk (Hound Dog) Presley, Doug Million, Kenny Henderson, Kerry Wood, John Patterson, Matt White and Geoff Goetz."

or this

"You won't find Clemson shortstop/third baseman Khalil Greene or Wake Forest center fielder Cory Sullivan on any top-100 list, but check back five years from now and see if they aren't remarkably like Jeff Cirillo and Steve Finley. Greene and Sullivan are players."

And I had to check where Roscoe Crosby was these days. After playing football at Clemson, he was undrafted and signed by the Colts, and ironically, was waived today.

Check it out. $7500 for an Alex Gordon card. Mistaken release or not, that seems a tad excessive, don't ya think?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-hotrookiecard&prov=ap&type=lgns

And here's the card:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/photo?slug=89a5739ddbc74ba5b87285a7c631cdd6.hot_rookie_card_1215032142_i mg063_jpg&prov=ap

I've been looking through some stats trying to target fantasy league guys to target to either buy low or sell high. Even with the small sample size of the young season, I figure hit rate should be a useful indicator, based on the assumption the % of balls that fall in for a hit will slow down for the hot starters, and pick up for the slow starters over the course of the year.

So looking at hitters, I took H/(AB-K) to determine current Hit Rate. League average so far is 32.4%, so I also looked at what a guy would be hitting if his hit rate had been league average so far this year.

I realize this doesn't take into account a player's historical averages, as Pujols will always have a higher hit rate than Corey Patterson, so it's flawed from that perspective. It also assumes all "balls in play" are equal, but of course a bad swing and weak grounder from Corey is a lot less likely to fall in for a hit than a blistering line drive from Albert. But I'm curious what other factors I'm not thinking of. I figure it's at least a starting point to target guys who are likely to improve or decline over the course of the season from what their current numbers are.

The names are probably not that surprising, but here are some numbers for guys with at least 30 ABs so far this year:

C.Shelton leads with a 52% hit rate. If he had a league average 32.4% hit rate, he'd be batting .231.

J.Gomes and M.Ensberg are tied for 2nd with a 50% hit rate. If at league average 32.4%, they'd be hitting .195 (Jonny) and .261 (Morgan).

Rest of the top 10 is Fielder, Delgado, N.Johnson, Tejada, Broussard, Kennedy.

Of the slow starters, Dan Johnson is worst (not surprisingly) at 11.4% hit rate. If he had a league average 32.4% hit rate, he'd be batting .258.

The remaining bottom 10: J.Mathis, A.Hernandez, Kotchman, Conine, Payton, Big Hurt, C.Patterson, Nix, Schumaker.

Figure the same exercise can apply to pitching, although that has dependencies the pitcher's historical average, and the defense behind him as well.

Thoughts?

So Reed Johnson's first 3 trips to the plate tonight resulted in him being hit, tying the single game record shared by many.

But in the 6th inning he was pinch-hit for, by Frank Catalanatto. Strategy be damned, let the guy go for the record! He would have had at least two more chances to lean into another pitch.

A homer, double, passed ball and 3 walks (one intentional, one to the opposing pitcher). His outing today (too bad he didn't make the rotation):

Bottom 5th: Cincinnati  

Not sure if this has been discussed in the past, but I'm thinking it would be interesting to take a look at prospects that came up at the same time for the same team, but careers went in completely different directions.

Like Kal Daniels (was a favorite of mine) and Paul O'Neill (who I thought was a stiff). I was wrong, as usual.

Or of course the (in)famous Mets trio that was going to start a dynasty - Izzy, Pulsipher and Wilson.

Who else come to mind?