SB Nation User Blog: e 6

Changes coming to SB Nation?

e 6 — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 03:42:11 -0000

Happened across this post over on Athletics Nation:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/152910/608

No idea what changes they've been working on, but hopefully there will be some things John can incorporate on his blog to improve functionality and decrease the shenanigans.

Here's another link to the story, since I have nothing else useful to add and need to hit 300 characters.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/152910/608

State of Baseball

e 6 — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 20:17:39 -0000

The "Barry debate" for me is a difficult one, because I think it's a much bigger issue than just "Should we cheer or boo Barry Bonds for his accomplishments?"

To me, this is what baseball should be about:

I must admit, I'm quite disillusioned by major league baseball today. Sure, cheating has always been part of baseball... stealing signs, scuffing balls, greenies, groupies, etc, etc. But wasn't there once a little integrity, honor, respect? Maybe the media just looked the other way in the old days, but all I see today is people in pursuit of cold hard cash, and complaining when they don't get enough of it thrown at them.

It just seems to me they've managed to take a kid's game and allow it to be warped into a business where only the greedy prosper. I've got a daughter who is almost two, another kid on the way, and I have no idea how I'll talk to them about baseball, in particular people like Bonds. A widely acknowledged miserable SOB who has been accused of cheating by taking steroids, accused of cheating on his taxes, accused of cheating on his wife, but has an incredible gift for playing a game, and is rewarded to the tune of $20 million a year to do so. Not to mention the money over and above that from licensing deals, as he felt he could make more money through independent licensing deals, instead of through the MLBPA. "Kids, he was a great player, one of the best to ever play the game. But don't be like him. Well, unless you want fame and fortune, then we may have some tough decisions ahead of us. Just remember, if anyone asks, this is flaxseed oil."

But the point of this ramble isn't Barry Lamar Bonds. It's about baseball, a game that I love to play, love to watch. Is there anything quite like the bright green grass in the outfield on a gorgeous summer day? The sights, sounds and smells of a friendly ballpark? I love the nuances of the game, as a shortstop plays a touch deeper in the hole with a runner on first, to increase his range knowing his throw will go to second base. The chess game between pitcher and catcher against batter. The third base coach flashing some crazy hand signals across the diamond. The runner at first stretching his lead an inch more, two inches more, as that could be the difference between safe and out as he digs his feet in and races for second. The umpire's hand punching the air to signal a called strike three. A stunned batter, staring down at the plate wondering how the heck he could let that pitch go by without swinging.

Maybe I'm too cynical. Maybe I'm too idealistic. I dunno. I know that I don't watch as much baseball as I used to. I don't expect it to change, I realize baseball is a business, first and foremost. First and only, really. I don't expect a resolution, I don't expect people to agree, just wanted to vent some frustration. And thus I endeth my ramble.

Poll

How do you feel about baseball today?

Love it, I don't care an iota about what motivates players or what they put in their body.

13 votes

Yeah, some of the stuff bugs me, but it's baseball, I still love it.

36 votes

I'm troubled, but like to think the powers that be will somehow get things back on track.

0 votes

It breaks my heart, and I've about had it.

1 votes

Shut up already, let's talk about prospects.

8 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

Baseball Prospectus Free Preview

e 6 — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 17:22:30 -0000

Just noticed this, for those out there who want to see what privileges membership has, or who are too cheap to spend the money. Baseball Prospectus has a free preview of all their content thru July 15.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

WHAT'S THIS ABOUT A FREE PREVIEW?

Most of our content is only available to those with a Baseball Prospectus Premium subscription. From July 9 to 15, however, everyone can access the great baseball content and stats that subscribers get year-round.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/freepreview.php

Ahh, Garza...

e 6 — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 00:58:12 -0000

From CBS Sportsline:

Matt Garza, SP MIN

News: The Twins plan to promote pitcher Matt Garza from Triple-A Rochester in time for Friday night's game at Detroit. "Garza will pitch out of the bullpen, but probably start one of the doubleheader games next Friday at Chicago," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said Thursday.

Analysis: Garza is 4-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 16 starts at Rochester. After starting 2006 at Class A, Garza quickly worked his way up to the Twins. Often relying on his fastball, he was 3-6 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts for Minnesota last year. "He knows he can't survive on just a fastball. Hopefully, he's worked on that," catcher Joe Mauer said. Consider the top prospect in deeper leagues for Fantasy Week 14 (July 1-8), especially since he is expected to get a start.

Guess we'll finally find out how those other pitches are coming along...

Twins starters

e 6 — Wed, 16 May 2007 14:07:01 -0000

So still no word on who the Twins will call up to start Saturday, but some interesting developments.

Seems it won't be Slowey, who threw 102 pitches last night and would have to pitch on short rest. Surely that won't happen.

Elsewhere, Ortiz got blasted again, and sounds like the Twins may have finally realized exactly what he's capable of. Seriously, at the beginning of the year, who would have thought Ponson and Ortiz would be that bad? Everyone? Well, yeah.

And it looks like Crain may be headed to the DL. My hunch is that the Twins will actually call up two starters - one to replace Ponson and one to replace Ortiz, and then banish Ortiz to mop-up duty in the pen.

Personally I'm hoping for Garza on Saturday, though his AAA numbers so far are the worst of the three.

Anibal Sanchez -- dreadful

e 6 — Wed, 02 May 2007 18:40:54 -0000

Has anyone seen Anibal Sanchez pitch this year? I'm curious if he's looked as bad as his stats. Didn't get out of the 4th today against the Mets.

Yes, it's a small sample size, but clearly seems to be something going on, is the offseason shoulder soreness still there?

2006 (114+ IP, 17 starts) vs 2007 (30 IP, 6 starts)

7.1 h/9, 3.6 bb/9, 5.7 k/9
12.9 h/9, 5.7 bb/9, 4.2 k/9

Anyone seen him pitch that might have some insight?

Greinke

e 6 — Fri, 27 Apr 2007 04:12:08 -0000

OK, maybe it's late, or maybe I've finally lost my last marble, but does anyone else see a resemblance between Zack Greinke and Earthworm Jim???

http://images.sportsline.com/images/baseball/mlb/players/60x80/390851.jpg

http://images.quizilla.com/R/radiopillows/1035442077_result-jim.jpg

I've also found that "Greinke!" is a great substitute curse word when I'm within earshot of my daughter.

Whiff rate -- the most unhittable pitches

e 6 — Fri, 20 Apr 2007 17:10:28 -0000

Interesting article on Yahoo: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-behindthestats&prov=ap&type=lgns

Great stuff: The most unhittable pitches in baseball
By TOM KOCH-WESER, STATS Analyst

Phillies GM Pat Gillick recently said Cole Hamels, his prized 23-year old southpaw, had the best changeup he'd ever seen from a left-hander.

Not exactly a source of objectivity, Gillick's statement might otherwise be dismissed as reeking of bias from a proud boss.

But what if he's right? And how can we tell?

Scouts often speak of pitchers with "plus" or "plus-plus" offerings, usually referring to where a particular pitch falls on the 20-80 scouting scale in terms of both velocity and movement. But if we dig a little deeper, which pitches - given their speed, movement and deception - are actually the most unhittable in the game?

While there's no exact way to measure a pitch's "nastiness," we can come close to quantifying it by assuming a basic baseball tenet: In almost all cases, the most ideal outcome for a pitcher on a given pitch is to have the hitter miss. As such, we can measure great stuff by using the "Whiff Rate".

The Whiff Rate is simply defined as the total number of swings and misses over the total number of swings. Assuming that the primary goal of a batter is to make contact, we can use this ratio to see who has the best "out" pitch - and to find out what it is.

Assuming a minimum sample size of 200 swings for fastballs and 100 swings for anything off speed, we can see who coaxed the highest percentage of whiffs a season ago. And, as it turns out, Gillick might not be far off in his assessment.

Hamels consistently delivered the most unhittable changeup in 2006, producing a Whiff Rate of .514, the leading figure by a significant margin over Colorado closer Brian Fuentes, who posted a rate of .460, and Arizona's Brandon Webb (.454).

Johan Santana, widely considered to have the best change in the game, finished the year at .450, fourth among qualifiers. To his credit, Santana also delivered his changeup more frequently in the strike zone (38.6 percent) than anyone in the top five, while opposing hitters slugged a meager .221 against it, also the best of the group.

Hamels' teammate, Ryan Madson, ranked fifth at .426.

While those players are certainly dominant when it comes to the premier off-speed pitch, the mantle of the most unhittable pitch in 2006 goes to the slider of Fernando Cabrera.

Cleveland's young reliever recorded a Whiff Rate of .652 on that breaking ball, and, if you think that's a fluke, think again. Had Cabrera qualified the year before, 2006 would have been the second consecutive season his slider led the league. In 2005, Cabrera posted an eye-popping Whiff Rate of .762, though in limited action (42 swings).

Interestingly, Cabrera only threw his slider in the strike zone 28.6 percent of the time, well below the major league average of 41.6 percent. In other words, he makes the pitch unhittable with a late bite that places the ball outside the plate or in the dirt much of the time.

Houston reliever Brad Lidge, recently demoted from the closer role, was once as dominant as any pitcher in the game with a slider that pushed his rate of strikeouts per nine innings to nearly 15 in 2004. While he's struggled mightily over the past year, his trademark offering is still effective with a Whiff Rate of .594, second behind Cabrera.

That rate also stands up as the second-most dominant pitch of any type overall. In fact, sliders make up the top three Whiff Rates from 2006, as the Cubs' Scott Eyre is third at (.515), just ahead of Hamels' changeup. Florida's Jorge Julio (.503) and the Cubs' Michael Weurtz (.503) round out the top five sliders.

But enough about secondary pitches. The most basic - and important - pitch in baseball is the fastball.

If we were to think of the hardest throwers in the game, Detroit set-up man Joel Zumaya would be one of the first to come up. His average heater hit a league-high 98.6 mph and he notched triple digits on the radar gun more routinely (261 times) than anyone else in '06. But does that velocity translate to missed pitches?

Indeed it does - although there were a select few that threw fastballs that were even tougher to get wood on.

For the second consecutive year, Arizona closer Jose Valverde led the majors in fastball Whiff Rate, posting a .315 in 2006. There's clearly something deceptive about Valverde's short, stabby arm action and low arm angle, visual features that only add to the difficulty of making contact with an explosive 94 mph four-seamer.

Valverde also threw 54.5 percent of his fastballs in the strike zone, a higher percentage than any of the top five fastball Whiff Rate leaders and well above the league average of 51.1 percent.

Perhaps the most interesting entry on the list is Chris Schroder, by any other means an also-ran reliever in the Nationals system who is currently pitching for Triple-A Columbus. Yet Schroder had the second-highest fastball Whiff Rate in the league last year at .313. Schroder has a similar arm action to that of Valverde's, but, interestingly, throws 3 mph slower (90.5), a velocity that is almost perfectly league average.

Dodgers closer Takashi Saito (.306) ranked third, trailed by the Mariners' J.J. Putz (.293). Zumaya (.275) rounded out the top five.

Another Cabrera tops the list when it comes to curveballs. Baltimore's Daniel, who throws the hardest power-curve in the game at 84.7 mph, also possesses the one that's most difficult to hit (.513 WR). We see a correlation between speed and Whiff Rate when it comes to the curveball, as fellow hard-throwers Francisco Rodriguez (.494) and A.J. Burnett (.453) come in at No. 2 and 3.

Two of the premier sinkerballers in the game, Webb and Derek Lowe, prove that a solid complement to a good sinker is a good curve as those two trail Burnett at .438 and .397, respectively. Webb, the NL Cy Young Award winner, was fittingly the only pitcher to appear in the top five for two different pitches.

So the next time a player, manager or GM comes up with seemingly exaggerated accolades for a pitcher's stuff, don't just take it at face value. A little analysis will most times prove it's just hollow praise. But sometimes, like in the case of Hamels, he just might be telling the truth.

BJ to the outfield?

e 6 — Fri, 15 Dec 2006 15:26:46 -0000

So the D-Rays are apparently close to signing gold-glove 3B Iwamura.

http://tampabay.devilrays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061214&content_id=1761003&am p;vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb

Presumably this means BJ Upton will have to learn another position. Of course the outfield is full, barring trades. What's left... DH? 1B? 2B? Or maybe they can leave him in AAA for a couple more years.

Personally I hope they trade Upton so he can get a fresh start on another club.

Dogpile on Bavasi

e 6 — Fri, 15 Dec 2006 15:02:55 -0000

Not to add to the recent Bavasi bashing, but Seattle just signed Miguel Batista to a 3/$25. So $8+/yr may not be bad for starting pitching this offseason, but Batista turns 36 in the spring, with a career 68-79 record and career 1.46 whip.

I guess you could argue he's not that much worse than Meche (55-44, career 1.44 whip), but Meche is at least 28 so has age in his favor.

I'm not sure what kind of numbers to expect out of Batista pitching as a 36, 37, and 38 year old, even in Safeco. It might not be pretty.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AnwpD7zWr9zGoHsnFYrTOMQRvLYF?slug=ap-mariners-batista&prov =ap&type=lgns