But....above all the other storylines, the first eight games have shown that Monta Ellis is not a great fit within Coach Jackson's slowed down, more fundamental gameplan. The issue is not whether Curry and Ellis are a good pairing, or whether Curry's ankle makes him a liability as the team's star. The real issue is whether Ellis can be the star of a Mark Jackson-coached team. On the other hand, there is hope that Curry will take this year to get his ankle right and then use his premier shooting ability to lead a more half-court focused, defensive team that has less possessions each game with which to work. It seems weird to put Curry and defense in the same sentence, but in terms of structuring this roster, the best days ahead will involve Curry at the helm surrounded by an efficient supporting cast with toughness and high basketball IQ.

And while most fans will require the Warriors to produce a superstar in return for Ellis, I think it's time to consider the value of moving Ellis for cap relief, depth and hopefully a 1st round pick in 2012. While a star like Dwight Howard would be amazing of course, the reality is Golden State still isn't a destination. No star is going to want to re-sign with the Warriors right now. Maybe a couple years down the road with some building and progressive success, but this front office needs to step into the reality of the free-agent landscape today in early January 2012.

While I'd like to stop there and just leave this issue of Ellis/Jackson for discussion, I'm going to throw out a couple trade ideas to move the discussion forward. Everybody just stop it with the Dwight Howard talk. The other widely discussed potential deals have included impact players like Andre Iguodala and Josh Smith. While I like them both, they don't make this a great team. Rather, two teams I'd start talking to are Toronto and Charlotte.

Imagine the Warriors sending a package of Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh, and Charles Jenkins to Toronto for something like Jerryd Bayless, Amir Johnson, Leandro Barbosa, Ed Davis and a 2012 1st.

Bayless is a big guard that can flat out score and decently defend. Amir Johnson is a decent defender. Barbosa is a big expiring and Ed Davis was a top 10 pick that has shown flashes and could use a change of scenery. We all know the Raptors have been after Biedrins in the past and Ellis would be ridiculous off the ball with Caulderon. Udoh would give them nice defensive depth.

Stephen Curry/Nate Robinson*/Leandro Barbosa*

Jerryd Bayless/Klay Thompson

Brandon Rush/Dorell Wright/Dominic McGuire

David Lee/Ed Davis

Amir Johnson/Kwame Brown*

And then there's Charlotte, where Gerald Henderson still hovers below the radar as a blossoming young player that plays solidly on both ends of the floor. Four years under Coach K will do that. He worked out with Steph this summer and I'd love the thought of those two sharing the backcourt in Oakland. In a dream deal, I'd send Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Dorell Wright and Ekpe Udoh for Boris Diaw, Gerald Henderson, Tyrus Thomas, Reggie Williams and a 2012 1st. Charlotte gets a stud to put next to Augustin and Kemba, a decent center, Dorell's pretty favorable contract, and Udoh as a promising young player. Plus they dump Tyrus Thomas' borderline albatross contract.

Stephen Curry/Nate Robinson*/Charles Jenkins

Gerald Henderson/Klay Thompson

Brandon Rush/Dominic McGuire

David Lee/Tyrus Thomas

Boris Diaw/Kwame Brown*

*expiring deals

In both of these deals, the Warriors would enter next off-season with over 20+ million in cap space and a clear direction. Mark Jackson is here for the long haul and so he will chart that direction. I think Curry is going to be a part of it along with David Lee and his immovable contract (amnesty?!). Who knows, maybe Ellis' subtraction will even make both of the above rosters more competitive than this year's current mess of a roster, one that is now in the throws of a severe identity crisis. So I think it's time for this front office to think creatively, maybe outside the box, and move Ellis now without requiring a star in return. If they're thinking in terms of basketball sense and not short-term business sense, then hopefully they're considering such deals already.

As the shortened training camp and free agency period races on, two great debates have emerged from within our Warriors sphere of news and reverberating out into the national landscape. Many issues come to the fore through these two debates, from the question of competitive balance between the small and big markets to the strategy of a franchise with its sites set on climbing the ladder of the NBA hierarchy. What is up with David Stern vetoing a seemingly fair if not favorable trade for the league's Hornets? Did Stern overstep his bounds and set a perilous path for a franchise on the verge of life-support status? What is also up with the Warriors striking out on every attempt to land a top-flight free agent? Might the Warriors have overshot this free-agency period, been about a year or two ahead in going for headline-grabbing names, and missed out on adding solid pieces in process? Or maybe you like the aggressive "fake-it-till-you-make-it" confidence. We will debate these questions and more after the jump.

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In all the pre-draft discussion, there's a noticeable absence of talk about our need for a legit SF to go up against the stars of the league at the position like Lebron James and Kevin Durant.  The Warriors clearly have problems down low, as they always do, but I suppose that it would be best for the team to resist the temptation to draft an Anthony Randolph 2.0 like Derrick Favors, and instead draft a prototypical SF that we can lock into the starting line-up next to Randolph.  Wall, Turner, and Cousins would be worth much deliberation, but if it comes down to Johnson or Favors, I think the make-up of our current roster makes the choice pretty clear. Randolph, Wright, and Biedrins are all coming back, along with Turiaf. Drafting another PF would not only create a situation where there aren't enough minutes to go around but it would almost seal the deal that Randolph will not resign with the Warriors. If we haven't given up on him yet, then we need to stay the course with Randolph as the starter and Wright as the back-up. For the most part, I'm realizing that the best course may be patience with our bigs. 

Instead, the Warriors need to acquire a SF that can match-up with the long SFs in the NBA.  Right now the position is littered with hybrid 2/3's like Azubuike and Williams. Maggette is efficient and may rebound relatively well for his position but he is by no means a physical presence and has absolutely no chance defending dominant SF's in the league. He's an efficient change of pace off the bench, and there he should remain. Essentially, the team has three back-up SFs.

And so, I propose drafting Wesley Johnson, a player that is long: he boards extremely well for his position (8.5 per) and can also block shots (1.8 per). Those are impressive numbers when put up against the fact that he drastically improved his FG% this past year (50%) by showing excellent shot selection in the mid-range.  By all accounts, he's the consummate teammate, a player that defers to his teammates but loves to get out in the open court and play above the rim. Nellie will like the fact that he can also shoot the 3, an attribute that I consider as merely gravy. 

Lets face the truth, no big free agents are coming here. And so just like the Thunder, the best chance to compete is to let a young team gel together.  We have so many of those pieces already; inserting Johnson and moving Ellis for Iguodala or Mayo (because we need to move Ellis is we're going to be most successful) could make the Warriors a very young and exciting team to follow. I love Monta and think he's a player, but chemistry matters. Lets stop the controversy and trot out a no-nonsense team that will always play hard and together. Here's what I'm saying:

Stephen Curry

Andre Iguodala/O.J. Mayo

Wesley Johnson 

Anthony Randolph

Andris Biedrins

This is my dream line-up for the next 3-5 years. We may not win early, but eventually I think this team could usher in a new era of playoff hoops in the East Bay.  When stacked up against the Thunder, a team many are referring to as the model, I would almost prefer our guy at every position but SF. 

Curry vs. Westbrook - a matter of styles, both are equal distributors, but Curry scores and Westbrook bodies 

Iguodala/Mayo vs. Harden - I'd probably take our guy either way based on athleticism, all three are skilled

Johnson vs. Durant - clearly Durant, but Johnson has the look of a Danny Granger in the making

Randolph vs. Green - Randolph is still raw but he's far superior athletically than Green, who's really a SF

Biedrins vs. Ibaka - Biedrins is still the more experienced player and better rebounder

A top three pick might change this scenario with the possibility of acquiring Wall, Turner, or Cousins. But if we land in the 4-6 range, drafting Wesley Johnson would be a great direction to go, maybe even the best given the current make-up of our roster. 

Can't wait to see those ping pong balls droppin!!

Listening to the Warriors and Raptors go at it last night got me thinking about how both teams have pieces that may fit very well in the other's respective rotation. The teams have been trade partners recently (the Bellinelli/George blockbuster) and both franchises are coming off disappointing seasons. I think there is potential for the teams to make a solid trade without Bosh or Ellis trading hands. 

The Raptors may lose Bosh, but they will do everything they can to keep him by adding talent through trades and free agency. The same could be said about Ellis. Curry is really the "Bosh" of the Warriors, but Ellis is right up there as 1B. The front office has made Ellis' place clear with its actions. 

The Warriors would love to move Maggette and Biedrins, and since the Raptors at times have stagnated this year offensively and up front, my guess is they'd be very interested in adding the two players to put with Bosh to create a more balanced roster. The Raptors are also in a precarious position without a 1st rd pick in a loaded draft that becomes a compounded problem with the prospect of their best player leaving for nothing. 

So......I'll just launch into the trade proposal:

Corey Maggette, Andris Biedrins, Vladimir Radmanovic, and 2010 1st rd pick (24.5 million)

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state.htm

 for 

Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, DeMar DeRozan, and Reggie Evans  (22 million)

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/toronto.htm

This would only be on the table from the Warriors' perspective if they don't get picks 1 or 2 in the draft. Getting Wall or Turner would change their thinking entirely. But with Wright coming back and especially with the signing of Reggie Williams for next year, depth will not be a problem. The Warriors must upgrade and diversify their talent to improve. If they pick 3 or lower, though players such as Favors or Cousins are tantalizing, where will they really fit?  Picks 3 or 4 could become valuable trade assets for the Warriors. 

But first, the Raptors. Adding Maggette would give them an efficient scoring burst that they desperately need. Bargnani is a nice player for them, but he doesn't board well for his position, and he doesn't complement Bosh as well as a player like Biedrins. There's been speculation that the Raptors have sought the services of Bieds before, and my guess is they wouldn't mind essentially swapping Bargnani for Biedrins, especially if Maggette is a part of the deal. Radmonovic would be another international player in Toronto, and he's basically a poor man's Bargnani, fine. Most importantly, the Raptors would get a re-do on the drafting of DeRozan, a guy they've been giving burn all year in the hope of a break out that as of yet hasn't happened.  Wouldn't they rather get DeMarcus Cousins or Derrick Favors this year? Yes. 

And now, the Warriors. I love this trade for the Warriors. Not only do we dump two big contracts, but we add talent that can definitely make us a better team, all while keeping our core (Curry, Ellis, Randolph) intact. The Warriors are adding big, back-loaded contracts, but it's pretty clear that's the only way they are going to move these players. Bargnani is a big that shoots the three really well. He's not bulky, but he'd pair really well with Randolph on a running team. Calderon would be a solid back-up for Curry; he'd still get big minutes and is only one year removed from almost 10 assists per game. He would probably start on most teams, but Jack's arrival has created a logjam at point in Toronto. DeMar DeRozan could thrive in the Warriors system and give us depth at the 3; Reggie Evans would give us needed toughness up front. The key is diversity: the Warriors add a big that can shoot, a distributor, and some physical presence down low. 

Here are the rotations:

GSW

Stephen Curry / Jose Calderon

Monta Ellis / Anthony Morrow

Kelenna Azubuike / Reggie Williams / DeMar DeRozan

Anthony Randolph / Brandan Wright / Reggie Evans

Andrea Bargnani / Ronny Turiaf / Anthony Tolliver

Raps

Jarrett Jack / Marco Belinelli

Hidayet Turkoglu / Marcus Banks

Corey Maggette / Vladimir Radmonovic 

Chris Bosh / 2nd Rd Pick (#45)

Andris Biedrins / DeMarcus Cousins

Bargnani: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4129

Calderon: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3989

DeRozan: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4614

Evans: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3663

Maggette: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3336

Biedrins: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3828

Radmanovic: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3522

Looks pretty good to me. Thoughts? 

Now that we know....

1. ....that Curry is our point, this must mean that Ellis is our 2 of the future. Trading him would essentially wipe-out the value of drafting Curry. Why would we want to replace Ellis when we can pair his superior slashing sklls with a better distributing and 3 point shooting version of himself?

2. ....that Randolph is going to be a beast and that Morrow can bomb from behind the arc, this must mean that the front office wants to hold onto them. Couple this with #3 below, and the implication is a front office that must focus on what the team will look like in 2011-12. I know this sucks for us Dubs fans who are starved for wins now. But the trading of JRich and letting go of BD sealed this fate. It's not the worst place to be, to have talent like Ellis, Curry, Randolph, Morrow, and Biedrins. But that talent is not going to be in it's prime for another three years. WE NEED TO FACE THIS REALITY. So if we're too gunshy to trade these guys, or if we can't get equal market value for them (which I think is the case), then the shrewdest move would be to stick with them, let them develop, and then either lock them up again or shop them to get maximum value later.

3. ....that last year's terrible front office shenanigans have crippled us in the trading and free-agent market, this must mean that we have no choice but to stand pat and develop our young talent. The Ellis moped disaster and alienation of the team's saviors in Baron Davis and Chris Mullin, have really shifted our reputation around the league. It's true, they were the centerpieces of the We Believe magic in '07. They were the reason that many of you probably contribute to this blog. Two years ago we were perceived as an up-and-coming destination, with the best fans in the world and an exciting brand of hoops. Now, why would any free agent want to come to Golden State when he could help resurrect the franchise and be loved by the fans, and still be dropped like a bad habit??!! Enough said.

4. ....that nobody wants Maggette's contract, this must mean that we're locked in with Ellis, Biedrins, Jackson, and Maggette. Not a bad core of contracts, but Maggette's really limits our flexibility. That's ok as long as our young talent develops. Maggette still averaged 18.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg while shooting 46% from the floor. That's a very efficient line for Nellyball. I'd have no problem if Maggette was our 6th man in 2011-12.

So..........

Now that we know all of these things, the team must use the pieces it can trade, and/or the mid-level, to add a player that would help us look our best 2 or 3 years from now. A rugged rebounder is the number one priority. We can block shots, but to add a physical presence that can either come off the bench or start between Randolph and Biedrins against bigger teams, would be huge (no pun intended). A player like McDyess would be great, but he wants to help a team win a championship, same with Marion really. These kinds of players will have a pick between Cleveland, Houston, Boston, etc. They're too old for us anyway. The Warriors, on the other hand, need to be looking at a semi-young player that can board and be around for a while. While I really like Wright, it just doesn't make sense to have him on a team with Randolph and Biedrins. The same goes for Azubuike. I love his game. But we can't have him on a team that already has Ellis, Maggette, and Jackson. These redundancies of skills need to be thinned on this roster.

So................

Now that we know all these things, my sense is that the Warriors should be throwing all of their efforts into acquiring Paul Millsap. He just had his breakout year, and still can be had for a good price. David Lee would also be great but he's a year or two ahead of Millsap, thereby making him impossible for us to get. Once again, established players with options are kind of out of our range. Our glut of young talent should also make our next two or three 1st round picks for sale. The Jazz need cap relief desperately and they're probably stuck with Boozer and Kirilenko (nobody wants those contracts). So why not offer two promising young pieces in Wright and Azubuike, as well as two expiring contracts in Belinelli and Claxton, and then throw in as many 1st round picks as it takes to get Millsap? Claxton's deal is especially sweet because it is covered 80% by insurance, meaning Utah would basically save 4 million for their cap this year as well. Millsap is looking at teams like Oklahoma City. Though Durant is elite, I think we have a better supporting cast, and a more desirable fanbase and location. Why wouldn't he come here if we offered him a good, 4 year/40 million dollar extension? With the limited flexibility and unmovable contracts we have already, locking him up at this price would be our best play.

Assuming we re-sign the appropriate players, this would be our core for the next 4 years:

Curry, Ellis, Randolph, Millsap, Biedrins, Jackson, Maggette, Morrow, Turiaf.

Their last couple years together could be pretty special.

Lots of conjecture about where Ellis stands with the team. I think he'd be fine staying, but fine going as well. To be honest I'd like him to stay but I feel that the front office has created a situation where trading Ellis might be the best value for the franchise, only if the right deal was out there of course. 

While his value may generally be perceived as in decline on the market because of the moped incident and all this recent drama, his talent, production, and youth is undeniable. The Warriors made a financial commitment to him for a reason and consequently, by giving him that kind of money (especially when they didn't give it to such an iconic player like BD), the Warriors have set themselves up to be in the current situation where Ellis may feel the authority to try to dictate the draft, or more accurately from Ellis' perspective, just do his thing and be the unequivocal leader of the team. I can't fault him for that, and neither can the front office. As a result, if Ellis is kept, he should be appeased and they should do everything they can to make him happy. It's bad business to pay people a lot of money and then hold their mistakes over them so that they cannot perform well. The Warriors should be trying to get 5 good remaining years out of the contract and if that means drafting Jordan Hill, or even Brandon Jennings (who I think Nelly perceives as a pass first point guard), then I'm ok with that strategy. 

But....rather than settling on Hill or a point guard we don't want as much, why not at least consider shopping Ellis to pick up a legit 4 while clearing room to draft the playmaking point guard we seem to covet?

Suspicion is that the Hawks are shopping Josh Smith, and from spending some time recently in Atlanta, it is general sentiment that Smith will be gone. People hate him in Atlanta and I'm not sure if it's warranted. They looooove Al Horford. Smith also did have lows in blocks and steals this past year, but his lows are still huge (1.3 steals, 1.6 blocks). His recent career averages are about 1.0 more in each category, so ridiculously productive. The Hawks are still shopping him. 

Smith could really get out and run in the Warriors system. Imagine a 3, 4, 5 consisting of Randolph, Smith, and Biedrins. Very strong. Not bruising, but very effective in terms of rebounds and blocks. Perfect Nellyball front line. 

Assuming that our draft strategy would then focus to a playmaking point guard, I'd imagine our board at 7 would look like this: Curry, Flynn. I know Curry didn't work out for Golden State, but Ellis leaving takes away the drama and Curry is a scorer, something we'd need to fill the Ellis void. Flynn would also very nicely fit under this category. Athletically, a Flynn, Randloph, Smith combo would be a devastating match-up for opponents. 

The Hawks, conversely, would be looking to fill Smith's void in the draft with pikc #19. My guess is that they would target James Johnson from Wake Forest. He's be a great complement alongside Al Horford. 

So here are the 9-man rotations when the dust settles:

Dubs - Jonny Flynn, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Josh Smith, Andris Biedrins     

Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Morrow

Hawks - Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, James Johnson, Al Horford

Mike Bibby, Ronald Murray, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans

Is this possible? I say yes, it is possible.

My sense is that we've destroyed our national image as a front office and franchise in the last couple years (losing BD, Monta's moped, Mullin getting tossed) to the point that getting Bosh or any other big free agent is a fantasy. Why would a star want to come to a team that basically gave the cold shoulder to an NBA Top 50 great of all time?

So this is our best move with a young and contractually locked in core (Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Randolph, etc.): We should trying to move up to Oklahoma's spot. We still have a talented team that lacks a true young leader and superstar, and we have a lot of tradable pieces. I've read that they're interested in Curry and may want to trade down. http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24099667/

My guess is that Memphis will take Thabeet at #2. Conley is a lot better than we all think at the point and Memphis is high on him. Check out the last month of his game log: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4246/

If we offer Azubuike, Wright and our pick at 7 for Oklahoma's pick at 3, we'll be able to grab Rubio, who's really the only true point guard in this year's draft that we know is going to be a stud. The Thunder would love this trade if they want Curry. They'd walk away with Curry, Azubuike, and Wright. Here would be their deeper eight man rotation moving forward: Westbrook, Curry, Durant, Green, Krstic, Azubuike, Wright, Sefolosha

Most importantly, we'd get our young point guard to lock in now, which should be a huge priority this offseason. Lets be honest, Ellis is not a point. He has proven to not have the personality, and he's most suited to do what he did in 07-08, slash and score. A true point will make all of our weapons more effective, especially Ellis.

We would be losing Azubuike, Wright, and potentially Brandon Jennings but all those players have already duplicated skills on this team. We need to get thinner as a roster but more talented and specialized. By getting Rubio we could lock this core of eight together for the next 3-4 years. They could gel and become something special: Rubio, Ellis, Jackson, Randolph, Biedrins, Maggette, Turiaf, Morrow.

The problem with We Believe is that it only really lasted for a year and a half at most with a reasonably intact roster. Without the Dubs able to make a Bosh-like splash with all their long term commitments, we need to maximize the really unique talent we have already. 

What do you guys think?