Now that we know....

1. ....that Curry is our point, this must mean that Ellis is our 2 of the future. Trading him would essentially wipe-out the value of drafting Curry. Why would we want to replace Ellis when we can pair his superior slashing sklls with a better distributing and 3 point shooting version of himself?

2. ....that Randolph is going to be a beast and that Morrow can bomb from behind the arc, this must mean that the front office wants to hold onto them. Couple this with #3 below, and the implication is a front office that must focus on what the team will look like in 2011-12. I know this sucks for us Dubs fans who are starved for wins now. But the trading of JRich and letting go of BD sealed this fate. It's not the worst place to be, to have talent like Ellis, Curry, Randolph, Morrow, and Biedrins. But that talent is not going to be in it's prime for another three years. WE NEED TO FACE THIS REALITY. So if we're too gunshy to trade these guys, or if we can't get equal market value for them (which I think is the case), then the shrewdest move would be to stick with them, let them develop, and then either lock them up again or shop them to get maximum value later.

3. ....that last year's terrible front office shenanigans have crippled us in the trading and free-agent market, this must mean that we have no choice but to stand pat and develop our young talent. The Ellis moped disaster and alienation of the team's saviors in Baron Davis and Chris Mullin, have really shifted our reputation around the league. It's true, they were the centerpieces of the We Believe magic in '07. They were the reason that many of you probably contribute to this blog. Two years ago we were perceived as an up-and-coming destination, with the best fans in the world and an exciting brand of hoops. Now, why would any free agent want to come to Golden State when he could help resurrect the franchise and be loved by the fans, and still be dropped like a bad habit??!! Enough said.

4. ....that nobody wants Maggette's contract, this must mean that we're locked in with Ellis, Biedrins, Jackson, and Maggette. Not a bad core of contracts, but Maggette's really limits our flexibility. That's ok as long as our young talent develops. Maggette still averaged 18.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg while shooting 46% from the floor. That's a very efficient line for Nellyball. I'd have no problem if Maggette was our 6th man in 2011-12.

So..........

Now that we know all of these things, the team must use the pieces it can trade, and/or the mid-level, to add a player that would help us look our best 2 or 3 years from now. A rugged rebounder is the number one priority. We can block shots, but to add a physical presence that can either come off the bench or start between Randolph and Biedrins against bigger teams, would be huge (no pun intended). A player like McDyess would be great, but he wants to help a team win a championship, same with Marion really. These kinds of players will have a pick between Cleveland, Houston, Boston, etc. They're too old for us anyway. The Warriors, on the other hand, need to be looking at a semi-young player that can board and be around for a while. While I really like Wright, it just doesn't make sense to have him on a team with Randolph and Biedrins. The same goes for Azubuike. I love his game. But we can't have him on a team that already has Ellis, Maggette, and Jackson. These redundancies of skills need to be thinned on this roster.

So................

Now that we know all these things, my sense is that the Warriors should be throwing all of their efforts into acquiring Paul Millsap. He just had his breakout year, and still can be had for a good price. David Lee would also be great but he's a year or two ahead of Millsap, thereby making him impossible for us to get. Once again, established players with options are kind of out of our range. Our glut of young talent should also make our next two or three 1st round picks for sale. The Jazz need cap relief desperately and they're probably stuck with Boozer and Kirilenko (nobody wants those contracts). So why not offer two promising young pieces in Wright and Azubuike, as well as two expiring contracts in Belinelli and Claxton, and then throw in as many 1st round picks as it takes to get Millsap? Claxton's deal is especially sweet because it is covered 80% by insurance, meaning Utah would basically save 4 million for their cap this year as well. Millsap is looking at teams like Oklahoma City. Though Durant is elite, I think we have a better supporting cast, and a more desirable fanbase and location. Why wouldn't he come here if we offered him a good, 4 year/40 million dollar extension? With the limited flexibility and unmovable contracts we have already, locking him up at this price would be our best play.

Assuming we re-sign the appropriate players, this would be our core for the next 4 years:

Curry, Ellis, Randolph, Millsap, Biedrins, Jackson, Maggette, Morrow, Turiaf.

Their last couple years together could be pretty special.

Lots of conjecture about where Ellis stands with the team. I think he'd be fine staying, but fine going as well. To be honest I'd like him to stay but I feel that the front office has created a situation where trading Ellis might be the best value for the franchise, only if the right deal was out there of course. 

While his value may generally be perceived as in decline on the market because of the moped incident and all this recent drama, his talent, production, and youth is undeniable. The Warriors made a financial commitment to him for a reason and consequently, by giving him that kind of money (especially when they didn't give it to such an iconic player like BD), the Warriors have set themselves up to be in the current situation where Ellis may feel the authority to try to dictate the draft, or more accurately from Ellis' perspective, just do his thing and be the unequivocal leader of the team. I can't fault him for that, and neither can the front office. As a result, if Ellis is kept, he should be appeased and they should do everything they can to make him happy. It's bad business to pay people a lot of money and then hold their mistakes over them so that they cannot perform well. The Warriors should be trying to get 5 good remaining years out of the contract and if that means drafting Jordan Hill, or even Brandon Jennings (who I think Nelly perceives as a pass first point guard), then I'm ok with that strategy. 

But....rather than settling on Hill or a point guard we don't want as much, why not at least consider shopping Ellis to pick up a legit 4 while clearing room to draft the playmaking point guard we seem to covet?

Suspicion is that the Hawks are shopping Josh Smith, and from spending some time recently in Atlanta, it is general sentiment that Smith will be gone. People hate him in Atlanta and I'm not sure if it's warranted. They looooove Al Horford. Smith also did have lows in blocks and steals this past year, but his lows are still huge (1.3 steals, 1.6 blocks). His recent career averages are about 1.0 more in each category, so ridiculously productive. The Hawks are still shopping him. 

Smith could really get out and run in the Warriors system. Imagine a 3, 4, 5 consisting of Randolph, Smith, and Biedrins. Very strong. Not bruising, but very effective in terms of rebounds and blocks. Perfect Nellyball front line. 

Assuming that our draft strategy would then focus to a playmaking point guard, I'd imagine our board at 7 would look like this: Curry, Flynn. I know Curry didn't work out for Golden State, but Ellis leaving takes away the drama and Curry is a scorer, something we'd need to fill the Ellis void. Flynn would also very nicely fit under this category. Athletically, a Flynn, Randloph, Smith combo would be a devastating match-up for opponents. 

The Hawks, conversely, would be looking to fill Smith's void in the draft with pikc #19. My guess is that they would target James Johnson from Wake Forest. He's be a great complement alongside Al Horford. 

So here are the 9-man rotations when the dust settles:

Dubs - Jonny Flynn, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, Josh Smith, Andris Biedrins     

Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Morrow

Hawks - Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, James Johnson, Al Horford

Mike Bibby, Ronald Murray, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Evans

Is this possible? I say yes, it is possible.

My sense is that we've destroyed our national image as a front office and franchise in the last couple years (losing BD, Monta's moped, Mullin getting tossed) to the point that getting Bosh or any other big free agent is a fantasy. Why would a star want to come to a team that basically gave the cold shoulder to an NBA Top 50 great of all time?

So this is our best move with a young and contractually locked in core (Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Randolph, etc.): We should trying to move up to Oklahoma's spot. We still have a talented team that lacks a true young leader and superstar, and we have a lot of tradable pieces. I've read that they're interested in Curry and may want to trade down. http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24099667/

My guess is that Memphis will take Thabeet at #2. Conley is a lot better than we all think at the point and Memphis is high on him. Check out the last month of his game log: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4246/

If we offer Azubuike, Wright and our pick at 7 for Oklahoma's pick at 3, we'll be able to grab Rubio, who's really the only true point guard in this year's draft that we know is going to be a stud. The Thunder would love this trade if they want Curry. They'd walk away with Curry, Azubuike, and Wright. Here would be their deeper eight man rotation moving forward: Westbrook, Curry, Durant, Green, Krstic, Azubuike, Wright, Sefolosha

Most importantly, we'd get our young point guard to lock in now, which should be a huge priority this offseason. Lets be honest, Ellis is not a point. He has proven to not have the personality, and he's most suited to do what he did in 07-08, slash and score. A true point will make all of our weapons more effective, especially Ellis.

We would be losing Azubuike, Wright, and potentially Brandon Jennings but all those players have already duplicated skills on this team. We need to get thinner as a roster but more talented and specialized. By getting Rubio we could lock this core of eight together for the next 3-4 years. They could gel and become something special: Rubio, Ellis, Jackson, Randolph, Biedrins, Maggette, Turiaf, Morrow.

The problem with We Believe is that it only really lasted for a year and a half at most with a reasonably intact roster. Without the Dubs able to make a Bosh-like splash with all their long term commitments, we need to maximize the really unique talent we have already. 

What do you guys think?