Check out:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703791904576076073115191158.html

The guy used video tape from all passing plays and ranked each lineman against his counterparts on the remaining playoff teams.  Pouncey ranks #2 behind Matt Birk (BAL), but the analysis has Scott listed as the second best Steeler lineman in pass protection.  Something funny going on here...

In any case, the analysis, if even roughly right, does highlight the secret of Brady's success.  His offensive line is far and away the best in the NFL, with the Ravens a distant second.  The Steelers rank next-to-last ahead of (surprisingly) the Falcons. 

Let's hope the analysis is wrong or that the Steelers play well beyond their historical averages.  I am very worried that the Ravens, with better offensive and defensive lines, are going to have the upper hand on Saturday...

In order to reach the Super Bowl, the Steelers likely will face in successive weeks the two toughest and most-feared QBs in the NFL:  Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  Both of these guys have figured out the vaunted Steeler D.  Brady is 6-1 against Pittsburgh, while Manning beat them convincingly in Pittsburgh last year.  Both QBs exploit the key weakness in the Steelers' defense:  the short passing game.  This is a weakness since Pittsburgh stops the run and limits the deep pass by leaving open the middle of the field with its zone coverage.  That Pittsburgh has tolerated sub-par cornerbacks for years speaks to the inherent focus of a system that does not emphasize the cornerback position.  This system presents a great playing of the odds since most QBs cannot execute consistent short passes without error.  But Manning and Brady can.  This, along with a suspect O-line that keeps Pittsburgh from racking up 30+ points against good teams, sets the team up for failure when they face the Colts and especially the Pats.  That is the nature of the problem.

So I would like to know what the solution is and trade-offs inherent to that solution.  Many complained that the Brady was not blitzed enough last game, but was the problem that the ball was released too fast for blitzing to work?  Or that the Steelers couldn't blitz because they needed to cover multiple short-passing options?  Do the Steelers have a way to put the kind of pressure on Brady (or Manning) that the Giants did in SBXLII, or does the shorter passing emphasis of the '10 Pats (versus the '07 incarnation) mean that even that great pass rush would fail this time?  Should the Steelers give a little on the pass rush to have more success in man coverage, like, for example, by sitting Farrior in favor of a quicker linebacker instead?  Will the Steelers get more push in a three-man rush if and when they have Smith and Keisel back for the playoffs?  What needs to be done to better leverage Polamalu, who was not very effective in the most recent defeats to both Brady and Manning?

Thoughts please...

FootballOutsiders.com has wonderful stats going back at least a decade on various aspects of each NFL team.  They have a section in their stats section on offensive lines, in which they analyze effectiveness of the line in run blocking and pass protection.  You can visit the site to read the details on the methodology, but it seems pretty sound to me.  The interesting thing I found is that, as bad as the current offensive line is playing, its rank in both run and pass blocking is essentially the same as it was in all of 2008.  That year, the o-line ranked 24 in run blocking and 29 in pass protection, whereas this year (through 14 games) it ranks 25 and 30.  This means that if Pittsburgh were to win the SB, the offensive line that delivers the 7th Lombardi trophy would be only very marginally worse than the historically worst one to win it--the one from two years ago.

The other interesting thing I discovered is that the line has been terrible at pass protection for as long as Big Ben has been QB.  I looked at was how the line performed going back far into FootballOutsider stats and found that in the late 90's the Steelers were pretty good at run blocking and middling at pass protection.  By 2002, they were still in the top ten in run blocking and a little above #20 in pass protection.  By 2004, however, Ben's second year in the league, they had dropped to 28 in pass protection and run blocking had fallen to the high teens as well.  I do believe that the quality of the line declined over time as top picks were replaced with lower picks, and this is reflected in the gradual deteriation of th Steelers' run blocking rankings over the course of the decade.  However, the pass protection stats absolutely plummeted over a relatively short period of time.  This is less likely related to personnel on the line, in my opinion, as it is related to Big Ben taking over as QB. 

As we all know, Big Ben likes to hold onto the ball, making even a good line look average and an average line (which Pittsburgh had as he entered the league) look poor.  I've known that this is an issue, but I hadn't realized how clearly you can see it in the stats. 

To be sure, the line quality is bad due to injuries this year and drafting neglect or failure over time, and I use the gradually declining run blocking stats as the proxy for and proof of this.  However, the dramatic and sudden fall in pass blocking rankings I blame on Big Ben.

What this seems to mean is that Big Ben might make even the Colts or Pats' lines look bad.  It also means that the Pittsburgh line might actually play better if Manning or Brady were behind it. 

Thoughts?

Setting aside the fact that I would gladly suffer a 1-15 season if the single win was a 50-0 beatdown of the Patriots with a gratuitous destruction of Brady's knee in the process, I have grown long tired of the Steelers continuing to bring the same faulty game plan against the Patriots.  You cannot beat them with a zone blitz and mediocre secondary coverage.  You need to beat the hell out of their receivers so that they cannot complete short passes nor long ones.  The Steelers defense works against average or even good quarterbacks, but it doesn't work against QBs who do not make mistakes.  And you cannot expect to hit such a QB enough times to win, and you have no prayer when you cannot even touch the QB.  In the national press, the Steelers are not known for changing their game plan much.  But against the Patriots, the Steelers ought to try LEARNING and CHANGING.  Afterall, we all ought to know what the definition of idiocy is...and the Black and Gold have been wearing that moniker with great shame for about a decade now.

Is this Sunday's game a trap for the Steelers?

On the one hand, this looks like a classic trap.  The Bucs, setting aside the surprisingly fast start of two wins (albeit against weak teams), are the weak team that trapped teams often overlook.  The Ravens come to Pittsburgh the following week, creating a big temptation to look beyond the current opponent.  The lack of a starting-caliber QB and further injury on the OL (Essex) makes the game closer than it normally would be.  The Bucs are much better this year than their '09 record would indicate.  And, finally, the heat...

On the other hand, last year's collapse has produced the biggest chip on the shoulders of the Steelers' defense that one could possibly carry.  The lack of offensive production makes every game against any opponent above high school level a respected challenge for Hines Ward and company.  MT seems to be taking this season very personally--perhaps after embarrassing himself following the "unleash hell" comment last year--so that world-class motivator likely isn't overlooking his old team as a threat.  Finally, teams that win the way the Steelers did last weak, in 105 heat, in black jerseys, against a mirror-image aggressive force in the Titans, typically do not have mental let-downs.  They might be hurting and tired, but they usually don't phone it in.

Thoughts?

I'm concerned that the Steelers are thin at RB behind Mendy.  He's been knocked out before, so shouldn't the team get more depth now?  At the risk of offending the Redman cult, shouldn't Pittsburgh be making inquiries on the status and potential availability of Brandon Jacobs?  What about getting Willie back now that he sees he was over-confident in expecting a starting role elsewhere.  Isn't he available and an upgrade over Moore?  What other RBs with wheels left are available and represent an instant upgrade over the current stable of back-ups?

I noticed that the Colts let go of Tony Ugoh, who was the 42nd pick in the '07 draft.  He'd be an improvement in the pass protection area over existing back-ups, having protected Manning's blind side.  He was criticized for poor run blocking in Indy, but that blame should be spread around.  He'd be a good back-up upgrade for the Steelers and a good insurance against another let-down by Starks or disappointment by Adams.  He does have an undisclosed foot injury, but that doesn't sound serious.  Thoughts?

First, I think it's great news that the SI team led by Peter King, who is almost never remotely right with his predictions, is calling for the Pats to win it all.  Chasing 19-0 again, is how they put it.  This, along with the LV odds-makers' predictions, will certainly help motivate a Steeler team that historical draws great inspiration from being counted out or underestimated.  It is just the right medicine to counter any unlikely post-SB let-down in the Tomlin era.

Second, shouldn't King be required to disclose his personal bias?  The guy was born in Springfield, MA and grew up in CT.  He regularly has picked the Pats and spends an inordinate amount of time covering them.  We all know about the natural big media bias toward New England corridor teams, but he seems a particularly egregious offender.

Finally, on the substance of his prediction, King projects that the Pats will drop only 3 games despite their top-five toughest schedule (e.g., Ravens, Falcons, Colts, Titans, Saints, Texans and the Dolphins twice), while the Steelers, with one of the lightest will drop 5.  Does anyone who isn't a Foxborough homey really understand this?  Granted, the Pats have reloaded the Death Star with Brady back in that offense, but can they really stop anyone with their defense?  Peter King called out this dangerous achilles heel when the Colts possessed it, but not when his beloved Pats do.  Meanwhile, does anyone doubt that the Steelers have the same once-in-a-decade caliber squad in their defense, but with an offensive unit that also wins games (final SB drive ring a bell, Mr. King?)?  Better schedule and better balance should produce a better record, assuming no injury problems.  I'm not sure what King is thinking.  Or maybe he's not... 

Thoughts?

I have read more than one local article and blog suggesting that the Steelers training camp is more relaxed than last year and far more relaxed that Tomlin's first camp, or what Bill Belichick regularly runs in New England.  One article noted that while players in many camps are fined for sitting on their helmets, the Steelers are regularly lounging around.  Meanwhile, players have voluntarily stepped out of practices to chat with celebrities who have come to watch practices (John Legend and Ving Rhames are recent examples).

Now, I know that the Steelers looked pretty solid for the 10 minutes that the starters were on the field, but I worry that more of the '06 complacency, that left the team out of the playoffs following a SB win, is beginning to show.  Much has been made about not talking about last season's championship, but watching Tomlin, Brett Kiesel, Tre Essex and Charlie Batch join Big Ben in Hollywood antics for the Shaq Versus show made me think that the team is not hungry enough. 

I hope that I am wrong, and that the relaxed mood doesn't hurt their play.  But there is a reason that few teams repeat, and maintaining focus over more than a season is very rare.  I wonder what others think...

Assuming the Steelers do not pick up any free agents during this offseason, then how many losses would count against their compensatory picks calculation?  Does anyone know?  Clearly, Bryant McFadden and Nate Washington will count.  However, will Anthony Smith count?  What about Marvell Smith?  He just signed with the 49ers.  If players are cut from the team prior to an offer being made, then I thought that they would not count toward the compensatory picks calculation.  Is this correct?  If so, then why shouldn't the Steelers have delayed releasing players until other teams had shown interest?

This was some recent press on Bodden:

***

Broncos linebacker Andra Davis turned a few heads with remarks in the Boston Herald about new Patriots cornerback Leigh Bodden.

"He’s one of those Champ Bailey corners," Davis said of Bodden, his former Browns teammate. "I used to tell my agent he was one of the best corners in the league."

Bodden got his first serious notice when Bengals star Chad Johnson said Bodden was the best corner he faced. An anticipated breakthrough to big money stalled when Bodden had an injury-plagued 2007 with the Browns, then spent 2008 seeming lost after getting traded to the hapless Lions.

Bodden, 27, signed a one-year deal with the Patriots worth a reported $2.25 million.

"They really got a steal," Davis told the Herald. "He just has that swagger and that confidence to line up against anybody and shut them down.

"He’s going to do great in New England ... being around a better bunch of players, and on a team that’s supposed to win."

***

Now, Bodden is from Duquesne and presumably would have been interested in playing for the most recent SB winners and top defense in the league while returning to his old college town.  Why was he not brought in?  The Patriots picked him up for a price that the Steelers could afford ($2.25M).  By most accounts and statistical measures, he would have been an upgrade over McFadden, not to mention Gay.

I know that the Steelers' lack of free agency activity is worn as a badge of honor, but that shouldn't be the case.  The lack of stupid free agent signings should be a badge of honor, but deals to get Bettis or Farrior should be replicated with the frequency with which the Patriots do it.  The Steelers are as attractive a team as the Pats, and Tomlin should leverage that asset the way Belichek does.  I could be wrong about Bodden (and, by implication, Gay), but I see this as a missed opportunity that could haunt the Steelers this season.  More importantly, it highlights free agency as a missing piece in Pittsburgh's team building that should be addressed so they can keep pace with the Pats.  As a Steelers fan, it pains me to say that New England appears to have the edge going into the season, and, with 6 draft picks in the top 100, they could widen their lead next month...

Don't get me wrong.  I am a die-hard Steelers fan and have been since the early 70's.  But a true fan sees his team clearly and doesn't let hope and loyalty mask observed weaknesses that IMO should be addressed.

There's a great article on the FoxSports website detailing how hard it is to hate the Steelers, given all the great aspects of the franchise.  Citing it as one of the very top brand names in all of sports, the author goes on to name several celebrities that are long-time fans.  Perhaps most die-hard supporters already knew most of what's in the article, but I found myself getting a warm, tingly feeling inside reading it nonetheless.  You can find it at:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9123622/It's-pretty-hard-to-hate-the-Steelers#

Enjoy!

The following links you to an interesting article concerning the questionable actions by Ray Lewis and company that resulted in Johnson coming out of the AFC Divisional game last weekend. 

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/did-the-ravens-defense-take-out-tennessees-chris-johnson/

Given that the referees flagged the wrong team (Tenn) during the fracas that ensued after manhandling the runningback, I wonder what people think the Steeler players and staff ought to do before and during such an incident this Sunday.  This is not an unlikely hypothetical, given what the Ravens did to Mendenhall in the first matchup between the two teams.  I wonder whether the Ravens will get out of Pittsburgh alive if they attempt to do this to Willie Parker while the refs stand idly by...  Thoughts?

Perhaps this is old news to some, but I just saw that the Steelers now have the best w-l record since the start of free agency ('93) and the second best record since the formation of the NFL ('70).  They are also the only team appearing near the top on both lists.  The details, courtesy of the most recent Steelers game notes, are as follows:

Since Merger: 

   Team   W   L   T   Win-%

1. Miami Dolphins 363 233 2 .609

   Team   W   L   T   Win-%

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 159 94 1 .628

The twelfth man on the Steelers' team last week in Gillette Stadium was the weather, which helped slow the Patriots' explosive offense and likely helped to cause a couple Randy Moss drops.  The weather in Pittsburgh during the game is projected to include snow and 15-25 mph winds.  This will help the Steelers clamp down on Romo, TO, Witten and Williams.  I also hear that the cold weather expected might make Ware's hyperextended knee feel pretty arthritic and stiff.  Isn't winter great?!?

...signed by the Steelers.  It's in the local papers as of an hour ago.  It is probably not a big lift to the quality of the defensive line, given his age and the fact he was released by the Eagles, but he cannot be much worse than Eason and the other backups.  If he can spell Big Snack, along with Hoke, then maybe it's a good thing.  Importantly, adding to depth cannot hurt, as the Patriots have shown time and time again.  I wonder what this means for the prospects of Booger McFarland making this team...

Jim Wexler at SteelCityInsider is reporting today that the Steelers plan to sign LeCharles Bentley.  He cites ESPN as a confirming source.  You can view the beginning of the article at:

http://pit.scout.com/a.z?s=68&p=2&c=773881&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fpit.scout.com%2f2%2f773881.html

You have to have a subscription to view the whole article.  I haven't seen this news anywhere else and am a little dubious about it.  Does anyone know if there is truth to this?