SB Nation User Blog: echerrst

Holliday to Braves still in play?

echerrst — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:04:23 -0000

... Remember that potential trade with the Braves -- Holliday and Cabrera for Escobar and prospects -- I mentioned a while back? I keep hearing it, but out here I'm also hearing the Braves would need the A's to take on a big part of the money owed Holliday over the next few months.

This is from Urban's Blog

Hopefully this could work out. What prospects do you think we could get in return? It seems unlikely that there would be many or high quality prospects involved.

What is a fair trade... Holliday to the Giants

echerrst — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 06:30:10 -0000

My friends and I were discussing what deal could be made with the Giants for Holliday. Half of us were A's fans while the other half were Giants fans.

At first, we (the A's) offered Holliday, Kennedy, and an RP (Springer or Wuertz) + the A's pick up about 8MM of the remaining Holliday and RP's contract. In return, the Giants would offer Alderson, Bumgarner or Posey... and we conceded that the Giants would consider Posey and MadBum untouchable. There really is nobody else in the Giants system worth talking about.

They (the Giants) proclaimed that there was "no way in hell" they'd accept this deal, in spite of the fact that it would drastaically improve their chances for the wild card.

So we countered again, this time offering Kennedy, Braden, and Holliday for Alderson. We hadn't quite nailed out this trade to equal it out, so we may have to include cash to make it more fair, or even remove Kennedy from the table.

The second trade allows the Giants to find a cost controlled SP to work into their lower half of the rotation for the next few years, lessening the loss of Alderson from their 2011 pitching rotation. It allows the Giants to plug holes in their rotation (removing Sanchez) and beef up the middle of the order.

I want to throw this out to AN to see what is considered a fair deal... or if a fair deal is impossible to reach.

Speed vs Power --- an analysis done by Paul Depodesta

echerrst — Fri, 16 May 2008 23:18:56 -0000

Article Link

Interesting to keep in mind when discussing players like Cust in the field/lineup. Also interesting when you listen to KNBR all day, and hear Giants fans praise the team speed, and how you manufacture runs.

Main Point :

"Since 2004 (opening of Petco), there have been 14 NL teams who have won at least 89 games, and there have been 14 NL teams who have won 71 or fewer games. What is a common characteristic of the 14 winning teams? Every single team that won at least 89 games out-homered their opponents over the course of the season. Every single one. Of the 14 teams at the bottom, just 3 out-homered their opponents. So, out-homering your opponent does not guarantee success. However, getting out-homered generally leads to tee-times in October.

Now we'll examine the same teams as it relates to SB's. If you take the net stolen bases* (SB minus CS), the top 14 teams stole more bases than they allowed on seven occasions, just 50% of the time. The bottom 14 teams stole more bases than they allowed six times, 43% of the time. So, stealing more bases than your opponent indicates... very little. Indeed, the Padres have been negative on the stolen base scale in each of our four seasons in Petco - all winning campaigns - and our best stolen base season was our worst record (82-80) while our worst stolen base season was our best record (89-74).

Ok, ok, but maybe I'm cherry-picking the teams here, so let's take a look at every team in the NL since 2004 and run a correlation to winning percentage. The correlation between net home runs (home runs hit minus home runs allowed) and winning percentage is about .56 - surprisingly strong considering it's just one statistic that occurs roughly twice per game. The correlation between net stolen bases and winning percentage over that time frame? .19, a level which is referred to as "insignificant". Basically, no relationship exists."

Matt LaPorta

echerrst — Fri, 09 May 2008 17:11:00 -0000

I read this article on beyond the boxscore :

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/9/482335/matt-laporta-the-next-ryan#add-comment

With Gallardo out for the year, Sheets hurt, and no readily available position for LaPorta, who could the A's package that would be fair to the Brewers?

It is not likely the A's would trade Street or Blanton, but the A's have pitching at all levels. LaPorta would not help this season, but would be a good replacement at a corner OF position next year sometime.