SB Nation User Blog: ejruiz

Five Reasons the Braves are Primed for a Good Run.

ejruiz — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:36:14 -0000

There has been a dark cloud hovering over our Braves this year and it's lead to a fair amount of negativity here on Talking Chop. Fortunately, we are beginning to see the first rays of light breaking through. I thought I'd share some of my observations with you all to see if we can't get a little more positivity going in order to help clear up that stormy sky. Follow me below the fold and let's get our anti- rain dance on, people!

Yo ho, yo ho, an ex-Pirate slugger for me: Center field (sub-.600 OPS) has quietly been our area of greatest need this year, so much so that Frank Wren felt the need to go elsewhere to find help. The trade for Nate McLouth was largely supported here and for good reason. Unfortunately he's been hurt as of late, but he should provided us with a solid all around boost when he does come back. Nate hasn't been great in Atlanta yet (.771 OPS) but he's hit better than that in two full seasons prior to this one (.840 OPS) and in his start in Pittsburgh this year (.819 OPS). He's a complete player who should provided an added spark to the line-up in all phases of the game.
Mr. Anderson is starting to believe: So far this season, our left fielders have put up a .weak 272/.325/.409 line. Our modest free agent acquisition, the unexcitable Garret Anderson, had been largely underwhelming. That is, of course, until the month of June came along. Garrett is finally living up to his reputation as a "professional hitter" by posting .306/.333/.471 slash stats this past month. This improvement is actually an accurate reflection of his career trends, such as the nearly 150 point improvement in OPS from his mediocre pre-All-Star break numbers (.703 OPS) in the 2006-2008 time frame to his surprisingly solid post-All-Star break figures (.851 OPS) during that span. Remember, he was also injured during Spring Training this year, so his regular timetable was likely pushed back some.
Take two at second base: Kelly Johnson, our primary second baseman this season and for some years prior, has mustered up only anemic offense in 2009. The underlying reasons for his struggles may be debatable, but the resulting .637 OPS has been an albatross around Atlanta's neck so far in this campaign. Both Omar Infante (1.046 OPS in 45 AB) and Martin Prado (1.124 OPS in 30 AB) have truly impressed in limited duty at the position, while also filling in admirably all over the field from time to time. It's a real shame to have to sacrifice the versatility that having both of them on the bench provides the team, but they've earned the full-time opportunities coming to them. Since he's the healthy and hot one now, Martin gets the first crack at holding down 2B. In 2008 and 2009, he has done nothing but hit whenever he has been called upon and I sincerely believe that he can do a fine job with even more at bats.
Five of a kind, aces: It's not very often when a team whose strength is great starting pitching can call upon the game's top pitching prospect to round out its rotation. Despite Derek Lowe's recent slump (he's still a workhorse and got off to a hot start, so he could turn it around as he did in his last start) the Braves still boost the best starting five in the National League. After a rocky start, Kenshin Kawakami (roughly 3.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in May and June) has been every bit the consummate pitcher that dominated in Japan. Despite underwhelming peripherals from time to time, Jair Jurrjens continues to put up quality start after quality start. Trade acquisition Javier Vazquez (3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 on the year and improving) is becoming a dark horse for the Cy Young Award or at least a deserving All-Star. Finally, Tommy Hanson (23 consecutive scoreless innings pitched) is beginning to live up to the enormous hype. With one of those five starters taking the mound everyday, Atlanta should have every opportunity to win games day in and day out.
The cavalry is here: the Braves bullpen is finally beginning to take a shape we can all be happy with. Rafael Soriano (an ungodly 1.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 12.0 K/9) and Mike Gonzalez (a still amazing 2.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 12.2 K/9) are being used as co-closers so as to maximize their effectiveness through match-ups and they are reaching their maximum potential. The closer's role is vastly overrated and will - hopefully - be replace by the concept of bullpen aces sooner rather than later, but this is a solid baby step in the right direction. Building a bridge to the back end of the bullpen are solid performances and arms, such as the surprising Eric OFlaherty (.222/.276/.296 against lefties and .250/.333/.268 against righties, with awesome triangle numbers overall) and the improving Peter Moylan (2.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 since his horrendous first two appearances when he got rocked while getting no one out); the former is proving to be more valuable than a LOOGY and the later has apparently shaken off what was left of the rust coming back from "Tommy John" surgery. The emerging Manny Acosta (2.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 in 15.2 IP) and quality starter-in-long-reliever's-clothing Kris Medlen (one baserunner against five strikeouts in three scoreless appearances as a reliever, with two messy ones sandwiched in between) further augment a really deep 'pen. Whomever ends up rounding out this staff is extremely unlikely to have to perform in high leverage situations, but there are plenty of decent options available to us once more pitchers get healthy again.

Well guys and gals, I'm going to leave it at that for now because it's late, I'm tired and I'm writing this on the fly. I hope you all enjoyed a look at some of the bright spots on our roster as we move forward this summer and fall. Perhaps a desperate acquisition or call for a fire-sale should be averted, seeing as we have all of this improvement to look forward to from within our own ranks.

I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to like the 2009 Atlanta Braves chances once again. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment once more, but then again, this isn't all entirely irrational. Moreover, what's the point of being a fan if you can't scrounge up some hope and enjoy the games in a positive light from time to time. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to chime in below and I will happily respond. Thanks for taking the time to plow through this rather dense FanPost and, as always, go Braves!

P.S.: I apologize in advance for any typos, incoherencies and potential inaccuracies above. As I said, I produced this almost stream of conciousness not expecting it to be this long. I hope whatever mistakes I made in substance and/or style don't overshadow the point(s) that I was trying to make. Cheers!

Poll

Did reading this post change your opinion of the Atlanta Braves chances to compete in the remainder of the 2009 season for the better?

2010 Mock Draft ORDER.

ejruiz — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:33:12 -0000

Hey guys! I've finally gotten around to working an a way-too-early 2010 Mock Draft; before I go on, however, I thought I'd share my current draft order for you to pick apart. If you find anything horribly wrong (a team that's more than a couple of slots away from what you'd expect to see) please feel free to mention it.

I'll go ahead and get one thing out of the way before it blows up in the comments: yes, I'm a Broncos fan. You'll notice that I think they'll do much better than the media expects and you almost certainly disagree with me on that, but you're not going to change my mind because I'm pretty sure I pay more attention to them than you do. If it helps, just ignore them!

One more thing: if you could tell me what you think your favorite team's most pressing needs may be, then please do share them! Thanks for talking a moment to look at this and especially to those who take the time to comment. Cheers!

1	St. Louis Rams
2	Detroit Lions
3	Oakland Raiders
4	Cincinnati Bengals
5	Kansas City Chiefs
6	Cleveland Browns
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8	San Francisco 49ers
9	Jacksonville Jaguars
10	Seattle Seahawks
11	Washington Redskins
12	Dallas Cowboys
13	*Denver Broncos (Chicago Bears)
14	Houston Texans
15	Green Bay Packers
16	*Seattle Seahawks (Denver Broncos)
17	Buffalo Bills
18	Miami Dolphins
19	New York Jets
20	New Orleans Saints
21	San Diego Chargers
22	Arizona Cardinals
23	Indianapolis Colts
24	Minnesota Vikings
25	Tennessee Titans
26	Atlanta Falcons
27	Baltimore Ravens
28	*San Francisco 49ers (Carolina Panthers)
29	Philadelphia Eagles
30	New England Patriots
31	New York Giants
32	Pittsburgh Steelers

Poll

How would you grade this 2010 mock draft order?

2010 Braves Payroll: Food For Thought.

ejruiz — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:46:53 -0000

Hello everyone! It's been a while since I posted anything beyond the odd comment here or there, so I thought I'd get back into the habit of extending my two cents into FanPosts all of their own. I know that "rosterbating" is now expressly forbidden here, but I don't believe this particular piece falls exactly into that category. While there may be some editorializing on my part about impending roster moves, the weight of this post will be the simple consolidation of information regarding our payroll in 2010 as it may pertain to potential trades, signings and promotions. I've done my best to cull the "Internets" for the correct contract information (a special thanks Cot's Baseball Contracts!) but I'm fully prepared to be wrong, so feel free to point out any mistakes of that nature in the comments. And so, without further ado, please follow me below the fold.

Guarantees ($59,992,000)

Is our highest paid player hiding his cash in his jersey on the mound?
(via www.reflector.com)

The Braves currently have eight players already under contract for the 2010 season. They are: catcher Brian McCann ($5.5M), third baseman Chipper Jones ($13M), outfielder Nate McLouth ($4.5M), back-up catcher David Ross ($1.6M), utility man Omar Infante ($2.225M), plus starting pitchers Derek Lowe ($15M) , Javier Vazquez ($11.5M) and Kenshin Kawakami ($6.667M). These guys are slated to receive nearly $60M for their efforts next year, an increase of nearly $6.1M over what they'll make in 2009. At very least, each of them is worth the salaries they'll get.

Options ($12,000,000)

Wouldn't it be nice to see this again all season long in 2010... but can we afford it?
(via www.elitefts.com)

Atlanta has but one contract option decision to make, but it's a huge one. Starting pitcher Tim Hudson - coming off of greaet work in 2007-08, "Tommy John" surgery this past offseason and presumably a little action later this season - could remain a Brave for an additional year at the fair price of $12M or be sent on his way at the cost of his $1M buyout. In other words, for the mere net cost of $11M for a single season's commitment, the Braves could have their previous ace back in their uniform for 2010. On the other hand, there is a bit of a logjam in the rotation already, glaring voids elsewhere in the roster and times are tough economically. Nevertheless, the old adage is that you can never have too much [good] pitching and he can definitely add to the stable in Atlanta if he's healthy and right. Just for context, he was under contract for $13M in 2009, an undisclosed (?) percentage of which has been presumably picked up by insurance.

Arbitration ($16,800,000)

Check out that bat's uncanny impression of Frenchy's status as a prospect!
via cache.daylife.com

This is by far the most difficult part of projecting payroll. This nebulous process leaves many of us fans so far in the dark as to shock us with its results sometimes. That said, it's a key component of this discussion, so I'll do my best here. I estimate arbitration figures as increasing salary 50% from year one to year two and 25% from year two to year three. I am admittedly utterly useless at guesstimating players upcoming salaries for the first time in the system, but I try my best by searching for similar guys and their awards in recent years. The Braves have as many as six guys up for this in 2010 and they are: first baseman Casey Kotchman, second baseman Kelly Johnson, right fielder Jeff Francoeur, outfielder Matt Diaz, plus relief pitchers Peter Moylan and Jeff Bennett. There are a few guys on that list that are less than likely to remain in Atlanta past this season (if for that long, even) and while I'd be more than happy to let most of them go, I have to estimate them all here to be fair and complete. I have Kotchman at $3.6M, Johnson at $4.2M, Francouer at $5M, Diaz at $1.5M, Moylan at $1.5M and Bennett at $1M. Such salaries would represent an increase of about $5.7M over what these same players make this year. If you can improve on these guesses, then by all means, be my guest; just remember that this is the same system that essentially and inexplicably rewarded Frenchy's failure thus far in the majors to the tune of $3.375M just last year.

Renewals ($4,500,000)

The future is now!
via classic17.files.wordpress.com

Prior to arbitration, which comes only after two or three years of MLB service time depending on production and the timing of their promotions, players must play for whatever amount their respective teams desire to pay them. That number is usually insignificantly greater than the league minimum, which is $400,000 in 2009 and likely to increase only marginally. For this exercise, I will consider $450,000 the average salary for Atlanta's pre-arbitration players. The guys that fit that bill and are almost certainly assured of roster spots next year barring anything exceptional occurring between now and then are: shortstop Yunel Escobar, infielder Martin Prado, plus pitchers Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Eric O'Flaherty and Manny Acosta. More could be brought up to replace departing free agents or players likely to be dropped via other means, but such guesswork could be tricky. The final number could be as high as ten or as low as zero, but I'll use three (so as to refuse to speculate on incoming free agents or trading for veteran players making more money to fills gaps in the roster). That leaves our total for this portion of the payroll at ten earning $450K for nearly $4.5M altogether.

Subtotal ($93,292,000)

The good news is that 25 players are accounted for above. The bad news is that they aren't all as good as we'd hope for. The pricetag of around $93M seems to be right about what Liberty Media is willing to spend on these Atlanta Braves, but they could surely do better than what's been detailed here. The bullpen would be decimated by the departures of superb relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez; the team could also benefit from addition by subtraction with the departures of Francoeur, Johnson and Bennett. Moreover, guys like Diaz and perhaps even Kotchman and/or Moylan (not my prefence, but it could perhaps be argued for and I'm open to anything) could have their respective salaries put to better use. Our rotation is already quite solid and could be incredible with at least six enviable options in Vazquez, Lowe, Kawakami, Jurrjens, Hanson and Hudson. One of those could obviously be flipped in a trade or reassigned into the bullpen, both of which should be considered.

I have to say, I like this team, but it needs some work. The posibilities are infinite and intriguing. That is why I present this to you, so we can debate the merits of our options and consider all of this when looking at decisions to be made this year and next offseason. I hope the powers that be here at Talking Chop allow this post to stand and join in on the fun of discussing it. Thanks for taking the time to read this admittedly long post and I hope you also do so to comment on it. Go Braves!

P.S.: This is my first try at inserting images and I'm quite obviously not very good at it. If you find them annoying or otherwise bothersome, I'd be happy to remove them. If you have any advice on how I may make better use of them (how do you get the writing to go beside a pic to fill out the empty spaces in the article, resize them, reorient them within the article, etc.) then please include that in a seperate post from that of your comment on content. Thanks again!

Poll

How would you grade the Atlanta Braves position regarding the quality of the roster in the context of the related payroll going into 2010?

A: Perfect - I wouldn't change a thing!

2 votes

B: Some minor moves could push us over the top.

125 votes

C: Plenty of work is needed to make this team right.

151 votes

D: Closer to failure than success...

17 votes

F: Blow it up and rebuild for the future!

7 votes

302 votes | Poll has closed

Brad Hawpe?

ejruiz — Wed, 20 May 2009 13:17:54 -0000

I know, I know... every time you rosterbate, God kills a kitten. Well, good thing that I'm a dog person instead! Seriously though, with all the talk of bringing in offensive reinforcements via trade, I can't believe that the conversation has not focused on Brad Hawpe.

Now, I'm not sure that the Rockies would trade the burgeoning star that's currently manning RF for them; and even if they do, I have my concerns about what Colorado might require in order to let him go. That said, I think he'd be worth a healthy package in return.

This is his Age 30 season (turns in June), but his stats seem to indicate that he's not in decline (this is shaping up to be his best year with a 1.031 OPS). Moreover, his splits show that he's not a Coors Field mirage (.895 OPS on the road this year and .889 in 2006-2008) unlike his more celebrated former teammate who is predicatably underwhelming in his new home. He has a favorable contract ($5.5M in '09, $7.5M in '10 and a $10M team option with a $500K buyout in '11) and the versatility to play either outfield corner (something we could use and may need). What's not to like???

Now, I won't speculate too much as to what we might have to give up to get him because I honestly don't know. What I can say is that proposals with Jo-Jo Reyes, Kenshin Kawakami or Jeff Francouer are patently ridiculous and I would hope that people don't waste anyone's time with them in the comments. The same goes for more expensive vets, even if they're performing well, because such a deal would mean that the Rox are fully commiting to rebuilding. Maybe something like Medlen OR Morton and Brandon Jones...

Why I Love Al Davis (And The Sports Pickle).

ejruiz — Sat, 02 May 2009 20:15:07 -0000

Why I Love Al Davis (And The Sports Pickle).

If you were shocked by the Raiders first day draft picks, wait until you check out their second day selections!

Glutton For Punishment: Quick Second Day Mock.

ejruiz — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 10:07:47 -0000

We've all experienced how futile mocking the draft is (perhaps it's best to say that it mocks us) but it sure is a fun thought experiment and for that I'm going to give it one more shot. Once again, the Broncos have taken us by surprise on the first day and while that disturbs many of us, I'm just excited to see what our new Broncos will bring to the table. And so, without further ado:

#114 - Zack Follett, OLB, California: worst-case scenario, he provides depth outside in the LB corps and contributes in special teams. Best-case scenario, he polishes his game and succeeds as a solid starter as an OLB in our new 3-4 scheme. One of those guys that you shouldn't bet against because they've made a living out of proving people wrong.
#132 - Sammie Lee Hill, DE/NT, Stillman: extremely high character guy who is a bit raw, but has all the tools necessary to excel up front in a 3-4. Some consider him a DE in that scheme, but I think he'd be best suited as an NT. He'd likely need some time on the bench to develope, but that's why we brought in veteran options at the position to bridge the gap if necessary.
#149 - Chris Baker, DE/NT, Hampton: a definite boom or bust prospect, but it's time to start taking those chances. His off the field troubles seem to have been focused at one time in Penn State and might well be behind him. If he stays on the straight and narrow, he can be a force, especially as a DE in the 3-4.
#185 - Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia: a natural fit inside in the 3-4 (where he already has experience) who, if properly motivated and schooled, could be a real asset on the field. He's certainly a boom or bust type of prospect, but this is when you can afford to take those chances.
#225 - Deon Butler, WR, Penn State: a small burner who should excel in the slot in a spread offense. His lack of height and bulk, along with the limited upside that those attributes indicate, cause him to be available this late despite blazing speed, solid all-around skills and good character.
#235 - Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech: would make for an intriguing project signal-caller for McDaniels. His weaknesses may be limited and his strengths may be magnified in the system that our new head coach seems to be interested in implementing in Denver.

This little exercise has brought a couple of points to my attention: we still have plenty of picks left to make, there is still a ton of talent on the board and we could certainly address our preceived slighted needs to complement our best player available approach early on. I know I'm likely in the minority in that I actually like our work on the first day (it's not as I would have done it, but I get it) so it's easy for me to be optimistic about all this.

Remember guys, being a fan is supposed to be fun. Also consider that we have no idea how this will all pan out on the field this fall or over the long haul. We don't have all the information necessary to make those judgements and the guys making these decisions for our franchise certainly have more of it than we do. So, let's step back, take a breath and enjoy the ride. Go Broncos!

Mocking The Draft's AFC Team-by-team Analysis

ejruiz — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 06:28:33 -0000

Mocking The Draft's AFC Team-by-team Analysis

"• Denver made a league-high five picks on the first day. Knowshon Moreno was a good pick at 12, even though it was panned by some. Robert Ayers will have to prove he can transition to the 3-4. Cornerback Alphonso Smith was a steal at pick 37. Darcel McBath is underrated at safety. It's a wonder why the team traded for pick 64 to take Richard Quinn, a blocking tight end. It's hard to imagine he wouldn't have been available at some point in the third round." ~ Mocking Dan

Trading A Future First Round Pick.

ejruiz — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 02:33:36 -0000

A future first round pick is not worth nearly as much as some people on this blog seem to think. Even the most cursory look at past trades involving such selections illustrates that fact. The trades made in 2007 that included such deals:

San Francisco traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #110 to New England for #28.
Cleveland traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #36 to Dallas for #22.
Indianapolis traded its first-round selection in 2008 and #126 to San Francisco for #42.

Sure, the 49ers seem to have gotten a better deal than we did, but that's only because everyone and their mothers knew that they would fall flat and that the subsequent future pick would be extremely valuable. Check out what the Browns had to pay to work their way back into round one for Brady Quinn or what the Colts gave up to snag a falling Tony Ugoh! I'd go further back, but I don't think it's necessary because this proves the point sufficiently.

So, can we please dispense with the nonsensical meme that screams roberry at the thought of our trade for the pick that because Alphonso Smith? People need to take a step back and analyze the draft in full before flipping out simply because the team didn't take the guys they wanted or address the positions they thought we needed. We had our shots at a lot of those guys (Matthews, Maualuga, Brace, Gilbert, etc.) and we passed, so our management either didn't like them as prospects or believes our current options are superior. Give it time, people. More thoughts to come from me following the completion of the draft.

Official Broncos Mock.

ejruiz — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:16:58 -0000

Hopefully it's not too late, but here goes: styg, this is my official entry into the Full Broncos Mock contest. You'll notice that it's a bit different than my full first round mock (by the way styg, you can take the top 12 from that entry for the third contest) but that's just me hedging my bets! Here goes nothing!

#12 - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
#18 - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
#48 - Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
#79 - Mike Mickens, CB, Cincinnati
#84 - Antoine Caldwell, G/C, Alabama
#114 - Zack Follett, OLB, California
#149 - Chris Baker, DT, Hampton
#185 - Hunter Caldwell, QB, Louisville
#225 - Antonio Appleby, ILB, Virginia
#235 - Deon Butler, WR, Penn State

This may well be too optimistic, but it hits the top positions of need/want with prospects that I like (for the most part) and would fit our team well. We'll see how this all works out soon enough! Thanks for checking in on this and I look forward tou your comments. Go Broncos!

EJRuiz's Offical Mock First Round.

ejruiz — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 20:06:43 -0000

Just to be sure: styg, this is my entry into the official MHR mock draft contest. Now, I put in everything from minor wrinkles to major curveballs, so it should be fun to see what you all think of it. I can promise you that it looks unlike most others. And so, without further ado:

1) Detroit Lions – Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia: New management plays to the crowd (as well as the media), committing what will likely be a record-breaking rookie contract to a prospect that I believe has significant bust potential.

2) St. Louis Rams – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: The toss-up between the top two OT candidates goes to the more NFL-ready prospect despite his potentially lower ceiling. This minor wrinkle has major ripple effects down the line.

3) Kansas City Chiefs – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: On the other hand, being in full-blown rebuilding mode allows the Chiefs to freely gamble on the less polished OT with the greater upside. The so-called Patriot Way indicates that they might look to the trenches, not LB corps, this early. They also have a lot invested in a new offensive-minded head coach and QB.

4) Seattle Seahawks – Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California: Rumor has it that the Seahawks, unaccustomed to picking this high and expecting/hoping to keep it that way, will look to secure their long-term future with this forward thinking selection.

5) Cleveland Browns – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forrest: The is the first match made in heaven of this draft, were value meets need for the perfect pick. Should the first four picks break down as listed above, this fifth would become a mortal lock.

6) Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi: While the Bengals have not shied away from character concerns in the past, but enough is enough and this is a viable alternative that addresses the same need effectively.

7) Oakland Raiders – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Every year there’s an absolute shocker early in the draft (usually in third of the top nine) and Al Davis picks some workout warrior with an impressive highlight reel but little more that makes observers around the league shake their heads and/or laugh out loud – this selection puts all of that together in one.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The biggest benefactor of Oakland’s folly is Jacksonville, who end up with the player that has to be the top prospect on their draft day big board.

9) Green Bay Packers – Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State: Like our Broncos, the Packers are switching to a 3-4 defense and that leaves their front seven in flux. I believe they’re more comfortable with their potential NT situation as opposed to the guys in the DE mix.

10) San Francisco 49ers – Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State: Perhaps the highest risk, highest reward prospect in my top ten, he’s probably a better fit in a 3-4 defense than the superior DE in Brian Orakpo.

11) Buffalo Bills – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: You don’t trade a Pro Bowl OT for a late first round pick only to turn around and draft his potential replacement with your original pick this early.

12) Denver Broncos – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: Jackpot! This pick could easily be switched with Green Bay’s above, but either way I think we’re going DL early in the first and I get the feeling we’ll be happy with that choice down the road.

13) Washington Redskins – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Few franchises/owners in the league have the stones to make a pick like this, but this boom or bust pick may just pay off in multiple ways for Dan Synder and his gang as he moves forward with the QB he got stuck with.

14) New Orleans Saints – Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State: This is not so much a vote of no-confidence in former top pick Reggie Bush, but rather an investment in keeping him healthy, fresh and free to exploit his ridiculous versatility.

15) Houston Texans – Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State: The Texans continue to stockpile quality, underrated prospects on their young and improving defense. With solid picks like this, their year may finally be around the corner.

16) San Diego Chargers – Rey Maualuga, ILB, Southern California: This pick just feels right and I hate everyone involved for it. Would he be the second coming of Junior Seau coming from the Trojans to the Bolts?

17) New York Jets – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: Though some people seem to think they’ll reach for a QB at this spot, I think they’re too close to take on a project at that position; so, instead, they improve the weapons around the QB – whomever he may be.

18) Denver Broncos (from the Chicago Bears) – Clay Matthews, LB, Southern California: This pick will almost certainly be a USC Trojan LB and, of the two left on the board, he’s the best fit. I’m not sure that Cushing’s personality and reputation would work in Denver.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: Another team in the midst of rebuilding, it’s not a bad time to bring in a developmental QB prospect to groom for the future.

20) Detroit Lions (from the Dallas Cowboys) – Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: This pick might be a surprise to some, but he’s a versatile player who is shooting up the charts and could be plugged in several places on a leaky Lions defense.

21) Philadelphia Eagles – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: Another pick that just fits and it’s going to make people wonder how eighteen teams with twenty selections allowed for it to happen.

22) Minnesota Vikings – Max Unger, OL, Oregon: Another curveball, but it’s one that makes a ton of sense. Unger could probably start at any position on the line (except for LT) at the next level.

23) New England Patriots – Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California: Versatility and a bit of a mean streak… this guy belongs on a Bill Belichick defense. He could well be a Bronco, too, instead of Matthews above.

24) Atlanta Falcons – Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi: They were torn between the QB and a DT in the last draft, but things worked out just fine. This time around, the choice might come down to which DT they like best and I think it’ll be Jerry.

25) Miami Dolphins – Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut: Here’s a guy that snuck into the bottom of round one and he has staying power. With the DB exodus out of Miami, he provides starter potential as a rookie and at least depth right out of the gate.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Everette Brown, DE, Florida State: Taking a LB out of the state of Florida isn’t a bad way to go this franchise. This kid could step right in and create havoc in classic Raven fashion.

27) Indianapolis Colts – Evander Hood, DT, Missouri: I really liked the idea of the Colts deploying Harvin’s skillset, but with the recent news, I have to think they’d go in a different direction.

28) Buffalo Bills (from the Carolina Panthers via the Philadelphia Eagles) – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: This could prove to be a serious steal, but it’s certainly possible that an unspectacular TE could slide this far.

29) New York Giants – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: Unable to complete a trade for a veteran WR, they decide to draft Eli Manning a weapon at that position. With what happened with Plaxico, I think they still steer clear of Harvin.

30) Tennessee Titans – Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: This pick is a fun thought experiment for me. Imagine Chris Johnson as the QB in the Wildcat formation with Percy rolling in on the end around…

31) Arizona Cardinals – Larry English, DE, Northern Illinois: This was a difficult pick for me, because I don’t think they’re so desperate for an RB and they could really use an explosive prospect like English.

32) Pittsburgh Steelers – Alex Mack, C, California: Another tough pick, but this speaks to the excellent shape this franchise is in. Mack’s the top pure center in this class and that’s good enough for Pitt.