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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

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Mar 24, 2008 Feb 15, 2012 58 21974

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I guess no big-league execs think that Kosuke could make their team more popular in Japan, or make the rest of their players more patient, or inspire new and better conditioning programs ...

20 days ago Tiny elgato 29 comments

Key part: "Wood, a free agent, also told NBC-5 Chicago television on Sunday night that he'll make a decision on where he will pitch next season by Friday, which, ironically, is the day that the Cubs' 26th annual Cubs Convention begins."

about 1 month ago Tiny elgato 227 comments

Bleed Cubbie Blue A theory on TheoJed's current thinking

Happy new year, BCBers! I had some time at a boring NYE party the other night to think about the Cubs and the current strategy of TheoJed. I have a theory as to what’s going on – and to why there’s been (relatively) little action in Cubland this offseason.

IMO, the Cubs' ultimate decision on Matt Garza is linked to the Cubs' ultimate decision on Prince Fielder, and, really, vice versa. If Garza remains a Cub, Fielder very likely could be one, too. Here’s my thinking:

It’s been widely reported that TheoJed are in talks with several teams about Garza. The decision to deal the right hander hinges, almost certainly and rather obviously, on whether what is offered is viewed as more valuable than keeping Garza in the long term. As is common in trades likes this, whatever the Cubs get back almost certainly won’t be as valuable in 2012 or 2013 as Garza. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that the Cubs would get big-league players back – or, at least, big-league players who would be as good or as established as Garza.

Maybe a Garza trade ends up being a dynasty-creating decision. But think of the Cubs’ rotation without Garza in the next two years. Assuming someone else isn’t added via trade of free agency – or something unexpected doesn’t happen like Cashner becoming a TOR starter -- the Cubs’ best starter in 2012 and 2013 could easily be (gulp) Travis Wood.

In such a situation, does it make sense to spend $50 million on Fielder over the next two years? Or, maybe better stated, is signing Fielder the slam dunk that many of us (myself included) have said it should be – because he’s a guy who could help now and later – given how bad the team could be in 2013-14 without Garza?

Turned around, the Cubs are probably trying to determine whether Fielder could be had at an agreeable price before they decide on Garza. If Bryan LaHair is projected to be at first on April 5, it makes more sense to trade Garza now, get prospects and regroup for 2013 and beyond. This would seem to jibe with Bruce Levine’s talk on Saturday (and various other reports) that the Cubs are still in the Fielder mix. Also, the Cubs can probably partly control the timetable of the Fielder talks, because they’re the biggest fish in the bidding (compared with Washington, Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, etc.). This would seem to be especially true after Texas won the Darvish bidding.

For a while, I dismissed my own theories on all of this as hopefulness. I'd like the Cubs to rebuild around Garza, Fielder and Castro, because I thought such a rebuild would be more fun than the alternative -- which seems like it could be Starlin Castro and the Bad Contract Expiration Watch for at least a year, maybe two. Then I thought about one of the Cubs' only major moves this offseason: David DeJesus.

Signing DeJesus wasn’t a huge gamble, but it made no sense for a team going young and waiting for contracts to expire. The Cubs could have trotted Tyler Colvin out for another year, promoted Brett Jackson (and kept Marlon Byrd), given the job to Reed Johnson or even Jeff Baker or found somebody off the scrap heap in February to play right. Instead, they gave two years to DeJesus, a veteran who's a good bounce-back candidate – and they signed him early in the offseason. Hmmm.

Now, it’s possible that the Cubs’ strategy changed since the DeJesus signing – that the move was initially designed to help the Cubs be competitive in 2012 (which would favor getting Fielder and keeping Garza) but that facts on the ground (Rizzo's availability? Fielder's pricetag relative to Pujols'?) rendered the DeJesus signing meaningless as a predictor. Indeed, the major moves after the DeJesus signing (Marshall, Stewart) appear more geared toward a youth movement, but the addition of Wood and Stewart could be helpful to the 2012 team.

So, maybe, in this case, a DeJesus is just a DeJesus. But I doubt it.

Back to Fielder and Garza. It is still possible that Garza returns and Fielder goes elsewhere – the return for Garza might not be good enough. But I’d say Garza is more likely to return if Fielder is signed and that it’s almost unthinkable that Fielder will be a Cub and Garza isn’t one.

Anyway, have at it.

325 comments  | 

Potentially important to the Cubs because Washington could have been a destination for Byrd.

about 1 month ago Tiny elgato 14 comments

Also, Fielder might not be in the cards because Theo wants to build from within, Cafardo says. I'd be disappointed if this is all true, but I wouldn't be shocked, either.

Important to note that this is not a context-low tweet.

about 1 month ago Tiny elgato 164 comments

Not sure how much this advances things. But in a subsequent tweet, Heyman says the Mariners are the most serious competitor, with the Rangers and Blue Jays "thinking hard about it".

http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/statuses/146273794833657858

I hope the Cubs get him. Fielder's gotta figure that it would be more lucrative to be a baseball player in Chicago than it would be in Seattle. And neither team was a contender last year.

2 months ago Tiny elgato 184 comments

Bruce Levine has been criticized over the years as someone who relied heavily on Hendry for information. This story -- and the fact that Levine's number of scoops have fallen pretty far with the new administration -- would seem to back up that criticism. Key line:

Hendry has talked to numerous teams about returning as a top lieutenant in a major league front office, according to major league sources.

If I were a cynic, I'd say attributing this to "major league sources," and not Hendry himself, would be a great way to potentially gin up interest in Levine's old friend among other baseball teams.

if I were a cynic.

2 months ago Tiny elgato 13 comments

Perhaps the biggest question mark going into 2012 appeared to pitch adequately in Venezuela last night (three runs in six innings). But considering the competition Z's facing, should he be doing better? Can somebody provide a little context?

3 months ago Tiny elgato 45 comments

Well, that's MY theory, anyway. The hats are especially bad.

3 months ago Tiny elgato 59 comments

Two baseball sources have confirmed that Theo Epstein is on the cusp of leaving his job as general manager of the Red Sox [team stats] to accept a position with the Chicago Cubs that is believed to include powers greater than he has in Boston, with an announcement expected to be made "within the next 24 to 48 hours."

Have at it.

4 months ago Tiny elgato 491 comments 7 recs

Works for me, depending on the price. It is interesting that while Hendry engendered a lot of loyalty, no one -- yet -- has said they won't return as a result of his dismissal.

6 months ago Tiny elgato 44 comments

Not a lot of new ground, but it's well written and paints an interesting picture of Sandberg with the IronPigs.

6 months ago Tiny elgato 34 comments

"With the Cubs struggling again, Hendry is seen throughout the game as embattled at the moment. But two factors lead one person who has dealings with Cubs owner Tom Ricketts to believe that Hendry will be retained: 1) Ricketts is anything but an impetuous fellow, and 2) he likes Hendry. Others connected to the Cubs agree that the rapport is strong between the owner and GM, whose tenure has been marked by some high highs -- like the first back-to-back postseason appearances in Cubs history in 100 years -- and lately, low lows, which is actually much better than most of his predecessors in the history of the star-crossed organization. And if Hendry is retained, the assumption is that Quade, a baseball lifer rewarded with a two-year deal after guiding a stunning turnaround last year, will make it to 2012, as well."

There's quite a bit more, including some new details on the Cubs' work to deal Z and Soriano to the Yankees. Also, Heyman thinks Baker is a catcher, apparently.

But overall, I feel ill. I have been holding out hope that Ricketts has more sense than to bring back Jimbo and Quade after this debacle of a season. No offense to my fellow BCB regular, but nothing would be worse in my eyes than TJ's predictions to actually come true.

7 months ago Tiny elgato 479 comments 6 recs

I was thinking about the lack of position player depth in the Hendry years and something hit me. Other than Geovany Soto in 2008 and Starlin Castro this year, I couldn't think of a homegrown position player who made the All-Star team since Hendry became GM. Sure enough, I was right.

I did a little bit more digging, and, sure enough, the Cubs' last homegrown position player to make the All-Star before Soto in 2008 was the injury-replacement choice of Joe Girardi in 2000 (Girardi was on his second tour with the Cubs at that point). The link is from a Tribune story three years ago showing the Cubs All-Stars through the years.

Prior to that, it was Mark Grace in 1997. Grace made the team three times ('93, '95, '97). Oh, and Shawon Dunston made it in 1990. This is, again, among homegrown position players.

In other words, the Cubs have had five homegrown position players make the All-Star team in the past 21 seasons, and one of them was essentially a meaningless pick in Girardi! To be sure, the Cubs have had homegrown pitchers make the team. Oh, and I know that All-Star selections aren't exactly the best measures for success.

The point is, I doubt there is a single team in baseball with this lousy mark against it over the past 20 years. This problem existed well before Jim Hendry took over. But it's a problem that the Cubs really need to fix. When you look at the homegrown position player core of the Yankees (Jeter, Posada, Cano), the Phillies (Rollins, Utley, Howard) or even a team like Milwaukee (Braun, Fielder, Hart) ... well, it's kind of troubling.

7 months ago Tiny elgato 9 comments

Mark Riggins has gotten a lot of criticism around here this season, including some from yours truly. But Buster Olney says Riggins has helped Marmol improve this season, and I'd guess Riggins has something to do with Shark's improvement.

9 months ago Tiny elgato 22 comments

A question Jessica asked Hendry and Quade at the convention is mentioned near the bottom of this story. Interestingly, Sully quotes Hendry's somewhat rambling answer, but didn't mention the "I wasn't making those decisions" comment by Quade that (I thought) was especially illuminating.

12 months ago Tiny elgato 41 comments

Haven't seen this posted yet. Levine's been dropping the name Orlando Cabrera a few times in recent chats, and this is what he had to say today:

Questioner: You've been talking about Orlando Cabrera quite a bit in the chats lately, is this wishful thinking or do you have a lead ?

Bruce Levine: Well if you read my stuff, you know I don't make things up. Read between the blogs.

And ...

Look for the Cubs to look at Orlando Cabrera, Christian Guzman, or Julio Lugo. In my opinion, the first two make the most sense.

The second comment was in response to a question about Felipe Lopez.

I'm not sure why Hendry would make this move, unless he has very little confidence in Darwin Barney.

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 68 comments

Pretty funny. Personal favorite:

""The Japanese Art of Lowering Expectations" with Kosuke Fukudome"

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 32 comments

As somebody who was hoping Hudson's value would fall and the Cubs could take a $1 million flyer on him, I am shocked by this. $5.5 million for Hudson for two seasons?

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 58 comments

That would probably put him out of the Cubs' price range, unless the deal is severely back-loaded. I know, I know -- Wood might accept a discount to play in Chicago.

Some other good Cubs info in Rosenthal's piece. He essentially suggested the four-man outfield rotation suggested by some BCBers (fsu, I think?). There's also some interesting Garza analysis.

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 89 comments

Not a done deal yet, but it's close. Really disappointing news for the Cubs. Hendry's inability to close this deal might put the nail in his coffin. Gonzalez was an ideal fit for so many reasons. Really depressing news.

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 593 comments 3 recs

This could have fallout for the Cubs. The Tigers had been connected to guys (notably Adam Dunn) who have been and might continue to be on the Cubs' radar. Even if Dunn is off the table (sounds like he is) the number of destinations for middle-order guys who play first got smaller today.

about 1 year ago Tiny elgato 100 comments

One less opening for Sandberg. Also means Cora is probably staying put, I'd guess.

over 1 year ago Tiny elgato 16 comments

I don't really agree with much of this. Zambrano, if he continues to pitch well for the rest of the season, could end up as the No. 3 starter -- behind Dempster and Gorzo. It's been debated around here, but I think the Cubs are better off rolling the dice with Z than taking on another team's problem child (e.g. Oliver Perez). Anyway, if the Cubs trade anybody to dump salary, they'll trade Fukudome to open a spot for Colvin. At least, that's what I would do.

Meanwhile, I also don't see Wells and Silva as sure bets. Wells is no more than a decent No. 4 starter and I bet Silva ends up in the bullpen because of his conditioning/health issues.

If Z somehow returns to old form and finally grows up ... it could be one key to fringe contention for the Cubs in 2011.

over 1 year ago Tiny elgato 60 comments 3 recs

Interesting stuff. Sounds like Colvin won't be getting time at first, after all. And it sounds like Dunn is very high on becoming a Cub.

over 1 year ago Tiny elgato 182 comments