SB Nation User Blog: ender0887

Playoff Chances: Week 14

ender0887 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:02:50 -0000

Once again, sorry for the late post. But here we go again with this weeks playoff chances after week 14 (not counting last nights game with the Colts and Jaguars).

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	W Conf	0.0474%	0.0474%	0.0000%
Dolphins	W Conf	37.0611%	21.9210%	15.1401%
Patriots	W	70.2886%	62.4635%	7.8251%
Jets	W	30.3776%	15.5681%	14.8096%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	W	37.4229%	1.5728%	35.8501%
Bengals	L	98.3556%	98.0358%	0.3198%
Browns	W Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Steelers	L Div	3.8292%	0.3913%	3.4379%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	W	2.6391%	0.0000%	2.6391%
Colts	W Conf	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%
Jaguars	L Conf	47.7652%	0.0000%	47.7652%
Titans	W	1.1993%	0.0000%	1.1993%
AFC WEST
Broncos	L Conf	71.1136%	7.7941%	63.3196%
Cheifs	L Conf	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Raiders	L	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Chargers	W	99.9003%	92.2059%	7.6944%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	L	74.5207%	30.4833%	44.0374%
Giants	L Div	23.5209%	1.1655%	22.3555%
Eagles	W Div	98.3192%	68.3512%	29.9679%
Redskins	W	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Lions	L	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Packers	W Div	95.3186%	1.5572%	93.7614%
Vikings	W	100.0000%	98.4428%	1.5572%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	L Div	0.9445%	0.0000%	0.9445%
Panthers	L	0.9116%	0.0000%	0.9116%
Saints	W Div	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%
Buccaneers	L	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	L Div	90.2347%	89.0445%	1.1902%
Rams	L	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
49ers	W Div	15.5473%	10.3712%	5.1762%
Seahawks	L	0.6824%	0.5843%	0.0981%

Lets begin the analysis with the NFC East and the Cowboys. To be honest, this loss does not hurt our chances too much. Out of the final four games on our schedule, this was definitely the one to lose because it was a non-conference game. That being said, it still lowers our chances a little. We lose a little ground to the Eagles in the division race. The Eagles are now a clear favorite, and their win over the Giants makes it extremely difficult for the Giants to win the division now. The Eagles have just about locked up a playoff spot and the Giants are falling behind a little in the wild card race. Overall, we still have a good chance to enter the playoffs, but more likely now as a wild card than a division winner. All we really need to do is win the same amount or more games than the Giants do and we are set. We both have games at the Redskins, but it looks like the Giants have it a little easier otherwise. They are home versus the Panthers and at the Vikings, while we are at the Saints and home versus the Eagles.

Elsewhere in the NFC: in the North the Bears have been officially eliminated. They couldn't do us a favor and beat the Packers, so now Green Bay is almost a lock for a wild card spot. Also, the Vikings have locked up a playoff spot. But in all probability they have won that division. In the South, the Falcons and Panthers both lost which puts them on the brink of elimination. They are pretty much a nonfactor in the playoff race. And finally, in the West, the 49ers beat the Cardinals to keep the division race alive, but that division just about belongs to the Cardinals. Either way, whoever does not win that division has almost no shot at a wild card spot.

In the AFC: the East is still a tossup between Jets, Pats, and Dolphins. And they are all making an improvement in their small wild card chances too, while the Bills are almost eliminated. In the North, the Steelers chances were damaged by their loss last week while the Ravens chances at a wild card have improved. The Bengals should lock that division up shortly. In the West, the Chargers just about have the division and the Broncos are looking like a wild card team. And finally in the South, the Titans and Texans are still nonfactors and the Jaguars are making a decent wild card push (once again, this does not count last nights game).

And here are the changes in the Cowboys chances over the season...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Green Bay Packers	Conference	L	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%
Washington Redskins	Division	W	84.48%	51.28%	33.20%
Oakland Raiders	None	W	87.51%	60.05%	27.47%
New York Giants	Division	L	77.14%	39.35%	37.80%
San Diego Chargers	None	L	74.52%	30.48%	44.04%

And the same table in chart form...

via i576.photobucket.com

As you can see, the overall chance of the Cowboys making the playoffs only dipped slightly. Mainly because we are more likely than ever to be a wild card contender. But for the second week in a row our chances to win the division fall even further. That will probably depend greatly on the last game against the Eagles. I have to say that a loss tomorrow night against a conference opponent will hurt us even more, and once again give the Giants a chance to steal a wild card spot away from us. I am not saying a loss tomorrow will eliminate us, it certainly will not. But it will may force us to win the last two games to make the playoffs. Once again, all I can say is that we need a win. A three game losing streak in December would be killer. They need to beat the undefeated Saints...

Playoff Chances: Week 13

ender0887 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:13:18 -0000

Apologies again for a late post. The depression from witnessing the Giants game in person lasted longer than expected, so I couldn't bring myself to look at what that loss did to this team in the playoff race. But I am back and ready to show you all how much that game hurt. Here are the playoff chances for the league... Oh and once again, if there is any confusion over what this is or how I got these results, please look back at my previous posts.

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	L Div	0.4059%	0.4058%	0.0001%
Dolphins	W Div	29.0480%	23.7529%	5.2951%
Patriots	L Div	64.5221%	59.0824%	5.4397%
Jets	W Div	23.1751%	16.7590%	6.4161%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	L	21.0508%	0.3924%	20.6585%
Bengals	W	99.2115%	99.0658%	0.1457%
Browns	L Conf	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Steelers	L Conf	11.4687%	0.5419%	10.9268%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	L Div	1.0622%	0.0000%	1.0622%
Colts	W Div	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%
Jaguars	W Div	66.9468%	0.0000%	66.9468%
Titans	L Div	0.6007%	0.0000%	0.6007%
AFC WEST
Broncos	W Div	84.0334%	22.2661%	61.7674%
Cheifs	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Raiders	W Conf	0.0550%	0.0000%	0.0550%
Chargers	W Conf	98.4197%	77.7339%	20.6858%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	L Div	77.1443%	39.3463%	37.7980%
Giants	W Div	43.8691%	14.9395%	28.9296%
Eagles	W Conf	85.1506%	45.7142%	39.4364%
Redskins	L Conf	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
NFC NORTH
Bears	W Conf	0.4717%	0.0000%	0.4717%
Lions	L	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Packers	W	78.1528%	3.5093%	74.6436%
Vikings	L Conf	99.9027%	96.4907%	3.4120%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	L Conf	7.8005%	0.0000%	7.8005%
Panthers	W Div	4.1853%	0.0000%	4.1853%
Saints	W Conf	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%
Buccaneers	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	W Conf	94.8170%	94.3213%	0.4957%
Rams	L Conf	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
49ers	L Div	6.9404%	4.6027%	2.3377%
Seahawks	W Div	1.5656%	1.0760%	0.4897%

So I will start my analysis with the Cowboys and the NFC East. The loss really does throw the division up for grabs again. However, both the Cowboys and the Eagles have a much better shot to win the division than the Giants. The Eagles currently have a higher chance because they have a better conference record, and a better division record. Also, if the division comes down to a three way tie (which is a somewhat likely scenario) we would be at a disadvantage in the three-way head to head tiebreaker because we were swept by the Giants.

The Redskins have now been officially eliminated from playoff contention, so I guess that is one less thing to worry about. In the NFC North, the Vikings lost but are still most likely going to win the division. The Bears are on the brink of elimination, but the Packers are highly favored to get a wild card spot. And our loss to them definitely hurts our chances at getting a wild card spot. Which is probably why the Eagles have a better chance than us for a wild card spot.

In the NFC South, the Saints have clinched the division, leaving the Falcons and the Panthers with very small chances to make the playoffs. It is very sad that our head to head wins against these teams won't help us very much. In the NFC West, the Cardinals get closer to clinching the division, while the Seahawks and 49ers get closer to being eliminated.

In summary, the NFC playoff race has essentially come down to seven highly probably teams. The problem is, out of the Packers, and the two teams in the NFC East that don't win the division, one of them will not get a wild card spot. And looking at our schedule and seeing that we will probably have maybe two more wins, its a little hard to be optimistic right now. Sorry for the pessimism.

Now quickly, the AFC picture. In the AFC East, everything is still up for grabs in a pool of mediocrity. It is the only division to not have a team eliminated from playoff contention yet (although the Bills are close). The Patriots lead the race slightly, but really everything is still possible. But it does not seem likely that any of them will get a wild card spot. In the AFC North, the Bengals continue to romp and the Steelers continue to fall (I know they lost again last night but this simulation was run yesterday so that is not taken into account here). And the Ravens still have a legitimate wild card shot. In the AFC South, the Titans and Texans both closer to elimination and the Jaguars are looking like a real likely wild card contender. In the AFC West, the Broncos and Chargers keep battling, and whoever doesn't win the division will probably get a wild card spot.

Here is how the Cowboys chances have changed over the season...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Green Bay Packers	Conference	L	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%
Washington Redskins	Division	W	84.48%	51.28%	33.20%
Oakland Raiders	None	W	87.51%	60.05%	27.47%
New York Giants	Division	L	77.14%	39.35%	37.80%

And the same thing in chart format...

via i576.photobucket.com

As you all can see, our chances to win the division took a significant hit. But in the NFC East, anything can happen. All we can hope for is that a couple more wins will get us where we want to be. This is crunch time, lets see how this team performs in these last four intimidating games.

This weekend, we can hope for the Packers to lose to the Bears, that will help us out a bit. But for the Giants/Eagles game, I have not worked out which scenario would be better for us. Assuming worst case scenario, (we lose) if the Giants win, they come even with us and the can bury us with their tiebreaker. If the Eagles win, they take first in the division. Either way, if we lose we are out of first place. So that only leaves one option... WIN!!

Playoff Chances: Week 12

ender0887 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:51:21 -0000

Because of the short week last week I was not able to get a post up. But I am back now, and here are the team's chances to make the playoffs after week 12. If you want an explanation on how my program works and how I came up with these numbers, look back at my previous posts.

For each team, their overall chance to make the playoffs, their chance to win their division, and their chance at a wild card spot.

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	W Div	3.1244%	2.8183%	0.3062%
Dolphins	L Div	17.9475%	12.7994%	5.1481%
Patriots	L	81.0308%	77.3984%	3.6324%
Jets	W	12.5351%	6.9839%	5.5512%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	W Div	39.4527%	5.2574%	34.1952%
Bengals	W Div	93.7209%	88.9320%	4.7889%
Browns	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Steelers	L Div	30.5489%	5.8106%	24.7383%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	L Div	8.7519%	0.0000%	8.7519%
Colts	W Div	100.0000%	100.0000%	0.0000%
Jaguars	L	48.0102%	0.0000%	48.0102%
Titans	W	4.8838%	0.0000%	4.8838%
AFC WEST
Broncos	W	66.3328%	20.6187%	45.7141%
Chiefs	L Div	0.3072%	0.0000%	0.3072%
Raiders	L	0.0671%	0.0000%	0.0671%
Chargers	W Div	93.2868%	79.3813%	13.9055%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	W	87.5120%	60.0460%	27.4661%
Giants	L	30.7051%	9.8236%	20.8815%
Eagles	W Div	72.1091%	30.1276%	41.9815%
Redskins	L Div	0.0042%	0.0029%	0.0014%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Div	0.4216%	0.0000%	0.4216%
Lions	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
Packers	W Div	69.5882%	1.0687%	68.5195%
Vikings	W Div	99.9777%	98.9313%	1.0464%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	W Div	27.9587%	0.1940%	27.7647%
Panthers	L	2.7389%	0.0000%	2.7389%
Saints	W	99.9983%	99.8060%	0.1923%
Buccaneers	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	L	83.0582%	80.2714%	2.7868%
Rams	L Div	0.0000%	0.0000%	0.0000%
49ers	W	23.8033%	18.0609%	5.7424%
Seahawks	W Div	2.1247%	1.6677%	0.4570%

In the AFC:

Even with a loss, the Patriots are still the heavy favorites in the East with no one else challenging them right now. In the North, the Browns have been officially eliminated, and the Bengals are very likely going to win that division. In the South, the Colts have become the first team to clinch a playoff spot and their division, however the Jaguars make a strong candidate for the wild card. In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders have been eliminated from their division race, but have a very small shot at a wild card spot. Right now the Chargers are strongly favored to win that division, with the Broncos being a good wild card candidate.

In the NFC:

Our Dallas Cowboys are definitely favored to win the East, but the Eagles are still putting up a strong fight and the Giants still have a small chance (which we plan to change this weekend by putting them out of their misery). And the Redskins are obviously just about eliminated from playoff contention. In the North, the Lions have been completely eliminated from the playoffs, and the Bears have been eliminated from their division race which is very likely going to go to the Vikings. The Packers have a huge shot at the wild card though. Similar situation in the South, with the Buccaneers being completely eliminated and the Panthers being eliminated from the division race. The Saints are almost definitely going to win that division, with the Falcons being a legitimate wild card contender. In the West, the Rams have been completely eliminated and the Cardinals are favored to win that division. But the 49ers are still putting up a decent fight.

And here is how the Cowboys chances have fluctuated throughout the season:

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Green Bay Packers	Conference	L	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%
Washington Redskins	Division	W	84.48%	51.28%	33.20%
Oakland Raiders	None	W	87.51%	60.05%	27.47%

As you can see, the win over a non-conference opponent did not help our chances too much, especially with the Eagles winning over a conference opponent. But I can tell you, a win over a division opponent this weekend will definitely make a difference. And we can hope that the Eagles lose to the Falcons and that the Redskins lose and get officially eliminated.

Here is the same table in chart format...

via i576.photobucket.com

Playoff Chances: Week 10

ender0887 — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:43:30 -0000

I am back again to give you all an update on what exactly that loss to Green Bay did to us and our shot at making it to the playoffs. In case you don't know what I'm talking about, take a look back at my post last week which was my first of the season and will explain your questions about what exactly this is. Here is how the playoff chances in the league stands after week 10...

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	L Conf	4.92%	4.24%	0.68%
Dolphins	W	20.49%	14.02%	6.47%
Patriots	L Conf	70.86%	66.45%	4.41%
Jets	L Conf	19.91%	15.29%	4.62%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	W Div	36.47%	7.43%	29.04%
Bengals	W Div	85.45%	71.82%	13.63%
Browns	L Div	0.05%	0.00%	0.05%
Steelers	L Div	59.20%	20.75%	38.46%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	Bye	32.37%	2.08%	30.30%
Colts	W Conf	98.74%	95.77%	2.98%
Jaguars	W Conf	38.24%	2.10%	36.14%
Titans	W Conf	1.30%	0.06%	1.24%
AFC WEST
Broncos	L	68.74%	53.45%	15.30%
Cheifs	W Div	1.15%	0.55%	0.60%
Raiders	L Div	0.22%	0.07%	0.15%
Chargers	W	61.87%	45.93%	15.93%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	L Conf	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%
Giants	Bye	39.99%	23.45%	16.54%
Eagles	L	49.31%	24.92%	24.40%
Redskins	W	5.73%	3.60%	2.13%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Conf	13.91%	3.24%	10.66%
Lions	L Div	0.01%	0.00%	0.01%
Packers	W Conf	42.11%	2.72%	39.39%
Vikings	W Div	98.17%	94.04%	4.13%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	L Div	41.97%	3.34%	38.63%
Panthers	W Div	17.06%	0.68%	16.38%
Saints	W Conf	99.55%	95.98%	3.56%
Buccaneers	L	0.16%	0.00%	0.16%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	W Div	81.15%	76.17%	4.98%
Rams	L Conf	0.34%	0.31%	0.02%
49ers	W Conf	32.21%	20.64%	11.57%
Seahawks	L Div	5.38%	2.87%	2.51%

In the AFC, no one is really challenging the Patriots for AFC East supremacy, the Bengals are starting to run away with the AFC North, the Colts have all but locked up the AFC South, and the Chargers have decided to put up a fight against the Broncos for the AFC West.

In the NFC, the Cowboys are the leaders in the East but the Giants and Eagles aren't too far behind. The Vikings have all but locked up the North, just like the Saints in the South. And there really isn't anyone to challenge the Cardinals in the West.

I would expect to see this season's first mathematical elimination this week or next (we could possibly do it to the Raiders on Thanksgiving) and the season's first playoff clinch could be coming soon as well.

And then here are the Cowboys chances over the entire season...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Green Bay Packers	Conference	L	72.96%	48.03%	24.93%

And in chart form..

via i576.photobucket.com

So in the end, I think we can realize that this loss to Green Bay did not hurt our chances at the playoffs too much. What hurts is that we all know we would be in much better shape with a win. However, with a big division game against Washington this Sunday I can assure you that this time it will help or hurt our chances much more.

In a completely unrelated side note, I am a Cowboys fan that has lived in New Jersey my whole life, right in the middle of Giants and Eagles territory. I have attended a few Cowboys games in Giant's Stadium and even one in the old Veterans stadium (what a nightmare) but I am proud to announce that this Sunday will be my first Cowboys game as a HOME fan. I am flying in to see the behemoth stadium and the Redskins game in person. I am very excited, so they better win for me!

Thanks again to everyone for reading. Like I said, I will do this for a few more weeks if you guys are interested in this information, but once we get to the last couple weeks of the season it is a little pointless because everyone knows what needs to happen to clinch playoff spots.

Playoff Chances: Week 9

ender0887 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:26:13 -0000

Some of you may remember me from last year. I am now back again to give you a little information on where we stand on making the playoffs this season. I understand it is still very early in the season, so take this information with a grain of salt. But I thought it would be interesting enough to post.

Let me start by giving you a little background information on the program. The main idea behind it is the "any given sunday" mentality, where every game is a random event in which anything can happen. Games are not decided one way or another based on previous record, home/away status, injuries, or any other intangibles. Every game is considered with a 50% chance of going either way.

Also, last year when I posted these stats there was confusion over what exactly the percentages meant, and I think I now have a better way of explaining it. So at the moment there are 8 weeks remaining, and each week has 16 games (except for this coming one, which has 15) for a grand total of 127 remaining games. This means that there are exactly 2^127 or 1.7 x 10^38 ways the remainder of the season could play out. I am giving you a pretty accurate estimation of what percentage of those possibilities will put each team in the playoffs. Without further ado... the data as of week 9.

For each team, the outcome of their week nine contest, their total chance to make the playoffs, their chance to win their division, and their chance to get a wild card spot.

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	Bye	8.92%	5.78%	3.14%
Dolphins	L Div	12.85%	5.82%	7.04%
Patriots	W Div	78.01%	70.31%	7.70%
Jets	Bye	31.08%	18.09%	12.99%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	L Div	25.91%	5.86%	20.06%
Bengals	W Div	73.73%	54.06%	19.67%
Browns	Bye	0.62%	0.04%	0.58%
Steelers	W Conf	73.98%	40.04%	33.93%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	L Div	35.12%	3.93%	31.19%
Colts	W Div	97.05%	93.38%	3.66%
Jaguars	W Conf	28.36%	2.58%	25.78%
Titans	W	0.94%	0.11%	0.83%
AFC WEST
Broncos	L Conf	79.76%	67.33%	12.43%
Cheifs	L Conf	0.72%	0.32%	0.40%
Raiders	Bye	1.59%	0.54%	1.05%
Chargers	W	51.35%	31.81%	19.54%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	W Div	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Giants	L	36.74%	17.12%	19.62%
Eagles	L Div	57.26%	28.16%	29.10%
Redskins	L Conf	2.83%	1.43%	1.40%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Conf	24.63%	9.56%	15.08%
Lions	L Conf	0.19%	0.03%	0.16%
Packers	L Conf	26.75%	3.29%	23.46%
Vikings	Bye	94.19%	87.13%	7.07%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	W Conf	56.03%	10.03%	46.00%
Panthers	L Div	9.89%	0.75%	9.14%
Saints	W Div	97.90%	89.17%	8.73%
Buccaneers	W Conf	0.49%	0.05%	0.44%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	W Conf	69.36%	65.88%	3.48%
Rams	Bye	1.68%	1.52%	0.16%
49ers	L	23.37%	17.84%	5.52%
Seahawks	W Conf	17.76%	14.76%	3.00%

As you can see, the Saints and Colts lead with highest percentages in a race to see who can clinch a playoff spot first. While the Browns, Titans, Cheifs, Lions, and Bucs are in a race to see who gets mathematically eliminated first.

I have been running this program all season, waiting for the right time to spring the results on you guys. So I have been taking down the changing percentages all season. This is how each game affected our chances...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%

As you can see, by far this week has had the biggest increase on our playoff chances all season. And below, for those of you who like pictures and charts, our playoff chances over the season (in chart form).

via i576.photobucket.com

Thanks to everyone for reading. I hope to keep this up until the end of the season if you guys enjoy it. Until the last few weeks of the season anyway, when everyone knows exactly what needs to happen to clinch a playoff spot.

Playoff Chances (Updated after Week 13)

ender0887 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:08:37 -0000

Okay, well we won our game... but so did just about everyone else that we are competing with for a wild card spot. That did not hurt our chances that much though.

Below are the chances that each team will make the playoffs this year...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.0151333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 1.51036666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.5047666667%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8257%
Chance to win the division           -- 98.4896333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.33606666667%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 8.32943333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.32943333333%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.7816666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.7816666667%

NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 24.8387%
Chance to win the division           -- 23.9715666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.867133333333%

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.0701%
Chance to win the division           -- 10.0405%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0296%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 66.5333%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.9879333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.545366666667%

NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 51.4987666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 11.4459%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.0528666667%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 84.3858666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.5837333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 50.8021333333%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 4.0315%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0269%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.0046%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.6898333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 54.9434666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 35.7463666667%

NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 9.0982%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.16446666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.93373333333%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 28.4637%
Chance to win the division           -- 20.4486666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.01503333333%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 26.4199333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.4054%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.0145333333%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 70.2213666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 60.9814666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 9.2399%

AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.9370666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 26.9917%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 55.9453666667%

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.00146666666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.00146666666667%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.498%
Chance to win the division           -- 73.0083%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 24.4897%

AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.264633333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.264633333333%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 85.0879333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.91933333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 81.1686%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- .0000333333333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- .0000333333333333%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9961333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 96.0806666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.91546666667%

AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 5.45053333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.439%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0115333333333%

Eliminated Teams: Bengals, Cheifs, Lions, Rams, Seahawks

Playoff Chances (Updated after Thanksgiving games)

ender0887 — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:32:51 -0000

So last week I did a post about this program I wrote to simulate the remaining games in the regular season in the NFL, then decide the playoff contenders. After the Thanksgiving Day games were completed, I ran this simulation 1,000,000 times to see how much better our chances were to make the playoffs. Looks like they have improved a bit.

Below are the chances that each team in the NFL has to make the playoffs...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.1657%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.384%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.7817%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.796%
Chance to win the division           -- 89.8986%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.8974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.6554%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.2629%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.3925%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 39.2828%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.4545%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.8283%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.3231%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.5433%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.7798%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.482%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2751%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.2069%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.0527%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1816%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.8711%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 40.6384%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.2316%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 27.4068%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.0414%
Chance to win the division           -- 32.9943%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 36.0471%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 14.2789%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7921%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.4868%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.2836%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.982%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.3016%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8034%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8034%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.1966%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1966%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.3156%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.2928%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7205%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8674%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.8531%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9946%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.3767%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.6179%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6189%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7331%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.8858%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.1863%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.1835%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.0028%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0224%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0113%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.0111%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.8446%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8052%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0394%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3155%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3155%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1832%
Chance to win the division           -- 2.3255%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 66.8577%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5978%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5978%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9937%
Chance to win the division           -- 97.6745%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.3192%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.0914%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.0173%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0741%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0836%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0836%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.7033%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6712%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0321%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.3286%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.2279%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.1007%

Season Simulation: Week 12

ender0887 — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:27:10 -0000

Let me preface this entry by stating that I am a computer science undergrad student in college right now. After this past weekend I was kind of wondering, exactly what are the chances that the Cowboys will make it to the playoffs.

So I decided to write a program that simulates the remaining games in this season's schedule and then determine which teams would make the playoffs in those situations.

I ran the simulation several thousand times and then calculated, for each team, the percentage of times they win the division or get a wild card seed. So the results of the simulation are below. Perhaps I will run it again after the Thanksgiving games are complete to see exactly how our chances have changed (hopefully increased).

I hope you all enjoy this bit of information, I thought it was very interesting.

Playoff Chances

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.396%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0746%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.3214%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7162%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8682%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.848%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9784%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2864%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.692%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6148%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7708%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.844%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.2332%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.11%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.1232%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0214%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0124%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.009%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.9302%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8776%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0526%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3242
Chance to win the division -- 0.0
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3242

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1696%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.6972%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 64.4724%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5768%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5768%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8344%
Chance to win the division           -- 95.3028%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.5316%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.1786%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.1036%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.075%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0934%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0934%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.6844%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0316%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.2484%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.1502%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0982%

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 31.75%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.3452%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 28.4048%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 98.255%
Chance to win the division           -- 91.5576%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 6.6974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 7.1664%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1444%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.022%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.8968%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.9528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 37.944%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.7508%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.594%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.1568%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.6136%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2564%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3572%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.8252%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1496%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.6756%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 44.9376%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.201%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.7366%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 72.3594%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.3366%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 16.2792%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7848%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.4944%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.166%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.9914%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.1746%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8312%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8312%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0956%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0956%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0732%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0732%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

A few questions...

ender0887 — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 01:50:30 -0000

Okay so obviously all these injuries to this football team are highly disappointing, but I have some questions that need answering.

Firstly, what are we doing about a punter? I have heard some people say that Nick Folk can also punt. Does anyone know anything about this? Is he any good as a punter or would we be better off signing a new one?

Secondly, is Tashard Choice going to have a legitimate role in our offense now? Or will we just rely more heavily on Marion Barber to support our run game AND a large amount of check down passes from Brad Johnson? Can Barber handle an even bigger role than he has now?

Thirdly, is Tony Romo's pinky really going to keep him out for over four weeks? I feel like if Brett Favre broke his pinky he would be playing the next week. Are there any chances that he could only miss two games and be back in time for the big crucial division game at the Giants?

And finally, can the coaching staff recover from this three week funk they are in? Will this situation we are in finally get our players motivated?

I would love to hear all your opinions on these issues.

It gets worse... Another injury

ender0887 — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:43:31 -0000

According to Mickey Spagnola, the injuries just keep on coming:

Cowboys rookie running back Felix Jones is getting an MRI on the strained hamstring he suffered in the 30-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but from preliminary indications he will be out at least two weeks.

I cannot imagine what the offense will be like without Tony Romo and Felix Jones.

Not to mention what our defense will be like with a possible suspension to Adam Jones.

What a sad day to be a Cowboys fan.