SB Nation User Blog: ender0887

Playoff Chances: Week 9

ender0887 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:26:13 -0000

Some of you may remember me from last year. I am now back again to give you a little information on where we stand on making the playoffs this season. I understand it is still very early in the season, so take this information with a grain of salt. But I thought it would be interesting enough to post.

Let me start by giving you a little background information on the program. The main idea behind it is the "any given sunday" mentality, where every game is a random event in which anything can happen. Games are not decided one way or another based on previous record, home/away status, injuries, or any other intangibles. Every game is considered with a 50% chance of going either way.

Also, last year when I posted these stats there was confusion over what exactly the percentages meant, and I think I now have a better way of explaining it. So at the moment there are 8 weeks remaining, and each week has 16 games (except for this coming one, which has 15) for a grand total of 127 remaining games. This means that there are exactly 2^127 or 1.7 x 10^38 ways the remainder of the season could play out. I am giving you a pretty accurate estimation of what percentage of those possibilities will put each team in the playoffs. Without further ado... the data as of week 9.

For each team, the outcome of their week nine contest, their total chance to make the playoffs, their chance to win their division, and their chance to get a wild card spot.

Team	Outcome	Total	Division	Wild Card
AFC EAST
Bills	Bye	8.92%	5.78%	3.14%
Dolphins	L Div	12.85%	5.82%	7.04%
Patriots	W Div	78.01%	70.31%	7.70%
Jets	Bye	31.08%	18.09%	12.99%
AFC NORTH
Ravens	L Div	25.91%	5.86%	20.06%
Bengals	W Div	73.73%	54.06%	19.67%
Browns	Bye	0.62%	0.04%	0.58%
Steelers	W Conf	73.98%	40.04%	33.93%
AFC SOUTH
Texans	L Div	35.12%	3.93%	31.19%
Colts	W Div	97.05%	93.38%	3.66%
Jaguars	W Conf	28.36%	2.58%	25.78%
Titans	W	0.94%	0.11%	0.83%
AFC WEST
Broncos	L Conf	79.76%	67.33%	12.43%
Cheifs	L Conf	0.72%	0.32%	0.40%
Raiders	Bye	1.59%	0.54%	1.05%
Chargers	W	51.35%	31.81%	19.54%
NFC EAST
Cowboys	W Div	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%
Giants	L	36.74%	17.12%	19.62%
Eagles	L Div	57.26%	28.16%	29.10%
Redskins	L Conf	2.83%	1.43%	1.40%
NFC NORTH
Bears	L Conf	24.63%	9.56%	15.08%
Lions	L Conf	0.19%	0.03%	0.16%
Packers	L Conf	26.75%	3.29%	23.46%
Vikings	Bye	94.19%	87.13%	7.07%
NFC SOUTH
Falcons	W Conf	56.03%	10.03%	46.00%
Panthers	L Div	9.89%	0.75%	9.14%
Saints	W Div	97.90%	89.17%	8.73%
Buccaneers	W Conf	0.49%	0.05%	0.44%
NFC WEST
Cardinals	W Conf	69.36%	65.88%	3.48%
Rams	Bye	1.68%	1.52%	0.16%
49ers	L	23.37%	17.84%	5.52%
Seahawks	W Conf	17.76%	14.76%	3.00%

As you can see, the Saints and Colts lead with highest percentages in a race to see who can clinch a playoff spot first. While the Browns, Titans, Cheifs, Lions, and Bucs are in a race to see who gets mathematically eliminated first.

I have been running this program all season, waiting for the right time to spring the results on you guys. So I have been taking down the changing percentages all season. This is how each game affected our chances...

Opponent	Type	Outcome	Overall	Division	Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Conference	W	44.81%	28.23%	16.58%
New York Giants	Division	L	33.61%	18.48%	15.13%
Carolina Panthers	Conference	W	41.80%	20.32%	21.48%
Denver Broncos	None	L	32.59%	11.96%	20.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	None	W	37.52%	12.66%	24.87%
Bye	Bye	Bye	38.11%	17.28%	20.83%
Atlanta Falcons	Conference	W	50.77%	24.53%	26.24%
Seattle Seahawks	Conference	W	64.16%	32.79%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	Division	W	80.94%	53.29%	27.65%

As you can see, by far this week has had the biggest increase on our playoff chances all season. And below, for those of you who like pictures and charts, our playoff chances over the season (in chart form).

via i576.photobucket.com

Thanks to everyone for reading. I hope to keep this up until the end of the season if you guys enjoy it. Until the last few weeks of the season anyway, when everyone knows exactly what needs to happen to clinch a playoff spot.

Playoff Chances (Updated after Week 13)

ender0887 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:08:37 -0000

Okay, well we won our game... but so did just about everyone else that we are competing with for a wild card spot. That did not hurt our chances that much though.

Below are the chances that each team will make the playoffs this year...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST
Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.0151333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 1.51036666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.5047666667%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8257%
Chance to win the division           -- 98.4896333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.33606666667%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 8.32943333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.32943333333%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.7816666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.7816666667%

NFC NORTH
Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 24.8387%
Chance to win the division           -- 23.9715666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.867133333333%

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.0701%
Chance to win the division           -- 10.0405%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0296%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 66.5333%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.9879333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.545366666667%

NFC SOUTH
Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 51.4987666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 11.4459%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.0528666667%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 84.3858666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.5837333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 50.8021333333%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 4.0315%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0269%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.0046%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.6898333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 54.9434666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 35.7463666667%

NFC WEST
Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.6077333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.392266666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

AFC EAST
Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 9.0982%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.16446666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.93373333333%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 28.4637%
Chance to win the division           -- 20.4486666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.01503333333%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 26.4199333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.4054%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.0145333333%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 70.2213666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 60.9814666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 9.2399%

AFC NORTH
Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.9370666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 26.9917%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 55.9453666667%

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.00146666666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.00146666666667%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.498%
Chance to win the division           -- 73.0083%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 24.4897%

AFC SOUTH
Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.264633333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.264633333333%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 85.0879333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.91933333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 81.1686%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- .0000333333333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- .0000333333333333%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9961333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 96.0806666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 3.91546666667%

AFC WEST
Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to win the division           -- 94.2685666667%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.292433333333%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 5.45053333333%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.439%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0115333333333%

Eliminated Teams: Bengals, Cheifs, Lions, Rams, Seahawks

Playoff Chances (Updated after Thanksgiving games)

ender0887 — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:32:51 -0000

So last week I did a post about this program I wrote to simulate the remaining games in the regular season in the NFL, then decide the playoff contenders. After the Thanksgiving Day games were completed, I ran this simulation 1,000,000 times to see how much better our chances were to make the playoffs. Looks like they have improved a bit.

Below are the chances that each team in the NFL has to make the playoffs...

Playoff Chances

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.1657%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.384%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 40.7817%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 97.796%
Chance to win the division           -- 89.8986%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.8974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 10.6554%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.2629%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.3925%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 39.2828%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.4545%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.8283%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.3231%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.5433%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.7798%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.482%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2751%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.2069%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.0527%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1816%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.8711%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 40.6384%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.2316%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 27.4068%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.0414%
Chance to win the division           -- 32.9943%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 36.0471%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 14.2789%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7921%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 8.4868%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.2836%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.982%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.3016%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8034%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8034%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.1966%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1966%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.3156%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.2928%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7205%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8674%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.8531%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9946%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.3767%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.6179%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6189%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7331%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.8858%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.1863%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.1835%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.0028%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0224%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0113%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.0111%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.8446%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8052%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0394%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3155%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3155%

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1832%
Chance to win the division           -- 2.3255%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 66.8577%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5978%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5978%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.9937%
Chance to win the division           -- 97.6745%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.3192%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.0914%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.0173%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0741%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0836%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0836%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.7033%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6712%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0321%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.3286%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.2279%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.1007%

Season Simulation: Week 12

ender0887 — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:27:10 -0000

Let me preface this entry by stating that I am a computer science undergrad student in college right now. After this past weekend I was kind of wondering, exactly what are the chances that the Cowboys will make it to the playoffs.

So I decided to write a program that simulates the remaining games in this season's schedule and then determine which teams would make the playoffs in those situations.

I ran the simulation several thousand times and then calculated, for each team, the percentage of times they win the division or get a wild card seed. So the results of the simulation are below. Perhaps I will run it again after the Thanksgiving games are complete to see exactly how our chances have changed (hopefully increased).

I hope you all enjoy this bit of information, I thought it was very interesting.

Playoff Chances

AFC EAST

Bills
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.396%
Chance to win the division           -- 6.0746%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 13.3214%

Dolphins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.7162%
Chance to win the division           -- 8.8682%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.848%

Patriots
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 50.9784%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2864%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.692%

Jets
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 83.6148%
Chance to win the division           -- 65.7708%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 17.844%

AFC NORTH

Ravens
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 64.2332%
Chance to win the division           -- 25.11%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.1232%

Bengals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Browns
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 1.0214%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0124%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.009%

Steelers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 90.9302%
Chance to win the division           -- 74.8776%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 16.0526%

AFC SOUTH

Texans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.3242
Chance to win the division -- 0.0
Chance to get wildcard -- 0.3242

Colts
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 69.1696%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.6972%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 64.4724%

Jaguars
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.5768%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.5768%

Titans
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8344%
Chance to win the division           -- 95.3028%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 4.5316%

AFC WEST

Broncos
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 79.1786%
Chance to win the division           -- 79.1036%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.075%

Cheifs
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0934%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0934%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Raiders
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 3.6844%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.6528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0316%

Chargers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 17.2484%
Chance to win the division           -- 17.1502%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0982%

NFC EAST

Cowboys
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 31.75%
Chance to win the division           -- 3.3452%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 28.4048%

Giants
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 98.255%
Chance to win the division           -- 91.5576%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 6.6974%

Eagles
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 7.1664%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.1444%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 7.022%

Redskins
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 42.8968%
Chance to win the division           -- 4.9528%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 37.944%

NFC NORTH

Bears
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 46.7508%
Chance to win the division           -- 45.594%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 1.1568%

Lions
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

Packers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 19.6136%
Chance to win the division           -- 19.2564%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.3572%

Vikings
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 37.8252%
Chance to win the division           -- 35.1496%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 2.6756%

NFC SOUTH

Falcons
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 44.9376%
Chance to win the division           -- 13.201%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 31.7366%

Panthers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 72.3594%
Chance to win the division           -- 33.0228%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 39.3366%

Saints
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 16.2792%
Chance to win the division           -- 5.7848%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 10.4944%

Buccaneers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 82.166%
Chance to win the division           -- 47.9914%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 34.1746%

NFC WEST

Cardinals
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 99.8312%
Chance to win the division           -- 99.8312%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Rams
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- ELIMINATED

49ers
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0956%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0956%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

Seahawks
Overall chance to make the playoffs -- 0.0732%
Chance to win the division           -- 0.0732%
Chance to get wildcard               -- 0.0%

A few questions...

ender0887 — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 01:50:30 -0000

Okay so obviously all these injuries to this football team are highly disappointing, but I have some questions that need answering.

Firstly, what are we doing about a punter? I have heard some people say that Nick Folk can also punt. Does anyone know anything about this? Is he any good as a punter or would we be better off signing a new one?

Secondly, is Tashard Choice going to have a legitimate role in our offense now? Or will we just rely more heavily on Marion Barber to support our run game AND a large amount of check down passes from Brad Johnson? Can Barber handle an even bigger role than he has now?

Thirdly, is Tony Romo's pinky really going to keep him out for over four weeks? I feel like if Brett Favre broke his pinky he would be playing the next week. Are there any chances that he could only miss two games and be back in time for the big crucial division game at the Giants?

And finally, can the coaching staff recover from this three week funk they are in? Will this situation we are in finally get our players motivated?

I would love to hear all your opinions on these issues.

It gets worse... Another injury

ender0887 — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:43:31 -0000

According to Mickey Spagnola, the injuries just keep on coming:

Cowboys rookie running back Felix Jones is getting an MRI on the strained hamstring he suffered in the 30-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but from preliminary indications he will be out at least two weeks.

I cannot imagine what the offense will be like without Tony Romo and Felix Jones.

Not to mention what our defense will be like with a possible suspension to Adam Jones.

What a sad day to be a Cowboys fan.