SB Nation User Blog: englishgrey

The Future of the Mets' Starting Rotation

englishgrey — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:40:06 -0000

While it seems every other major market team is making big moves this offseason (Yanks, Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Rangers), the Mets have done pretty much nothing but sign backup catchers. This has led to some moaning among Mets fans, but as James pointed out earlier today, the Mets can still significantly upgrade their roster by signing and/or acquiring some of the remaining free agents and trade candidates on the market. Combine a Sheets signing, a Holliday signing, and an acquisition of Harang to a healthy Mets roster, and all of a sudden the Mets look like contenders.

Unfortunately, I have little faith that Omar will sign and/or acquire two solid starting pitchers during the offseason. The Mets currently have four pitchers on their roster penciled into the starting rotation: Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. That leaves room for one more pitcher. Thus, the Mets have two options:

1) Sign an injury-prone pitcher like Bedard, Sheets, or Duchscherer to a major-league contract. To hedge the risk of signing one of these pitchers, also offer minor-league deals to formerly successful starting pitchers looking to make a comeback.

2) SIgn or acquire a reliable starting pitcher to take the last empty spot in the rotation.

In Scenario 1, the Mets would sign one of the three high-reward, high-risk free agents, and probably pair that signing with additional signings of low-cost starting pitchers that can be placed in Triple-A. Potential candidates include Chien-Ming Wang, Noah Lowry, Daniel Cabrera, Rich Hill, or any other pitcher that would be willing to sign a non-guaranteed, one-year deal and pitch in Triple-A. Niese and Figueroa would provide additional insurance in Buffalo.

In Scenario 2, the Mets would sign or trade for a starting pitcher who has consistently thrown 200+ innings while performing at or above league average. Potential candidates include Joel Pineiro, Aaron Harang, Doug Davis, John Garland, Jason Marquis, etc.

Why can't the Mets follow both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2? Because that would require the Mets' front office to be creative, and the Mets' front office is not creative. Signing both an injury-prone pitcher and a more reliable starting pitcher to a major league deal would require the Mets to place more than five starters with major-league contracts on their 25-man roster, which means one of those pitchers would have to move to the bullpen. Unfortunately, I don't think the Mets are willing to place any of their current starting pitchers in the bullpen. Perez would be a nightmare as a reliever used in high-leverage situations, and the Mets are not likely to send him to the bullpen to collect $12 million dollars for mop-up duty. Maine has the potential to be a good reliever, as he has an ability to induce swinging strikes when his fastball is working. But if healthy, he would certainly be more valuable as a starter. Plus, Maine is one of "their guys," a starter on the team since 2006. And let's not forget how Minaya refused to allow Heilman to even step foot in the rotation after establishing himself as a decent reliever. Moving a player from the bullpen to the rotation, or vice-versa, is not something Minaya is prone to do.

Thus, despite the potential for the Mets to place the likes of Harang and Sheets in their rotation, I am not optimistic that such a significant upgrade to the rotation will occur. My prediction: the Mets sign Pineiro, Garland, or Marquis, and Niese eventually replaces either Maine or Perez in the rotation (whichever one gets injured first).

Tim Hudson: A Potential #2 SP for the Mets? (Sorry, Sam)

englishgrey — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 21:30:48 -0000

Tim Hudson: A Potential #2 SP for the Mets? (Sorry, Sam)

According to Fangraphs (via Ken Rosenthal), Hudson will be opting out of his contract with the Braves. I'm guessing that would make him the top free agent starting pitcher on the market, or close second behind Lackey.

Brad Hawpe: Trade Candidate?

englishgrey — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:02:00 -0000

Brad Hawpe: Trade Candidate?

I always knew Hawpe could hit (he's averaged about a .380 wOBA the last four seasons), but I never realized his defense was downright Dunnian (yes, I just made that up).

2007: -27.2 UZR/150 in RF
2008: -46.6 UZR/150 in RF (Note: Holy Crap!)
2009: -19.5 UZR/150 in RF

So he probably shouldn't be an offseason target for the Mets. Thoughts?

According to Fangraphs' E-F (ERA minus FIP) stat, Pelfrey had the 4th unluckiest E-F in all of...

englishgrey — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 22:23:27 -0000

According to Fangraphs' E-F (ERA minus FIP) stat, Pelfrey had the 4th unluckiest E-F in all of baseball. HIs ERA for the season stands at 5.08, while his FIP stands at 4.38. The disparity most likely is a result of Pelfrey's low LOB% (66.4%, which is second-lowest in MLB) and his elevated BABIP (.322).

For fun, check out Ricky Nolasco's E-F (1.77). He was by the far the most unlucky starting pitcher in baseball this year. Look for him and Josh Johnson to be a formidable 1-2 next year for the Marlins.

Larger image here

Livan Hernandez pitches to Pablo Sandoval with Bengie Molina catching. Heaviest battery + batter...

englishgrey — Sun, 17 May 2009 20:42:19 -0000

Livan Hernandez pitches to Pablo Sandoval with Bengie Molina catching. Heaviest battery + batter ever?

Keith Law via Twitter

Pitch F/X Analysis: Run Value by Movement

englishgrey — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:57:37 -0000

Pitch F/X Analysis: Run Value by Movement

This is not related to the Mets, but since Samt has been posting some great Pitch F/X analysis on this site, I thought this might be of interest to members of the community who, like me, have trouble understanding the vertical/horizontal movement graphs.

Manuel Fined For Delaying Game With Santos Pinch-Hit

englishgrey — Mon, 04 May 2009 13:10:22 -0000

Manuel Fined For Delaying Game With Santos Pinch-Hit

The love that dares not speak its name can be costly...

SI on Defensive Metrics

englishgrey — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 14:58:39 -0000

SI on Defensive Metrics

A fairly interesting article about the rise of defensive metrics in statistical analysis. Highlight: Seeing Torii Hunter's ego get bruised when the author reveals that various defensive metrics showed him to be an average centerfielder last year.

Also, the article talks about the Putz trade and how Seattle specifically targeted Endy and Gutierrez to improve on defense. So now we know that Endy wasn't a throw-in.

Raul Ibanez: Defensive Wizard

englishgrey — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:48:33 -0000

Raul Ibanez: Defensive Wizard

A recent addition to Ibanez' highlight reel...

Today's Game: Braves 5, Mets 1

englishgrey — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 20:38:56 -0000

Today's Game: Braves 5, Mets 1

The Mets' offense was quiet today, with the exception of the Irish Hammer, who went 3 for 4 and is currently hitting .400 in spring training (18 for 45). Can someone figure out a way for both USA and Puerto Rico to lose tonight so we can get back the heart of our lineup?

Niese gave up two hits and three walks in four innings, along with two earned runs and a home run. Stokes and Parnell threw scoreless innings, while O'Day gave up one hit in 1 and 1/3 innings.