Over the last half decade there have been 25 DB’s (17 CB and 8 S) drafted in round 1 (out of a possible 159 picks...16%). This year’s first round pick of the Cincinnati Bengals, Dre Kirkpatrick finds himself following in their steps as another 1st round CB selection. So how have the previous CB’s drafted in round 1 panned out?

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Here are the CB’s drafted in round 1 since 2007.

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There has been an interior lineman (guard or center) drafted in the first round every season since 2001. So how have they done? What kind of future could we expect of our very own round 1 selection at Guard?

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Here are the interior offensive linemen taken in round 1 since 2001.

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I listed Gallery because he ultimately became a guard, and Albert because he was a guard when he was drafted. If you take them out and say they don’t really qualify because they weren’t drafted as guards to play guard, then it’s a very impressive list (even w/them it’s impressive):

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22 total Pro-Bowl selections among them

33% of them have been First Team All-Pro selections

40% of them have been to multiple Pro-Bowls

47% of them have been to at least 1 Pro-Bowl

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All of them were instant starters for the teams who drafted them, and played out their careers as starters.

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Obviously, as the folks who sell mutual funds say, “past performance is no guarantee of future performance”, but... it’s pretty promising indeed for Zeitler.

AJ Green’s 2011 rookie season was the most prolific performance of any rookie WR since Marques Colston’s 2006 campaign when he put up nearly identical numbers. We all know that AJ Green had a great 2011, but how well is he likely to perform in 2012?

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Looking at the “elite” 1st round picks to come out of the draft in the last decade (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson & Dez Bryant) and looking at Colston, who similarly had an awesome rookie year, let’s look at how they performed in year 2.

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Comparing their year 2 with their year 1, they all improved.

They increased anywhere from 13~45 receptions, 166~629 yards, and 2~8 TD’s.

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So if AJ Green is in this elite company, it stands to reason that he too, could have a similar increase in his numbers. So I’ve taken the average increase from year 1 to year 2 for these elite WR’s and applied it to AJ Green.

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The following article by Pat Kirwan on CBSsports.com argues that by putting together 3 consecutive good drafts in which they've drafted NFL starters, they are building a team that can seriously compete for a championship:

That leads me to the Cincinnati Bengals, who had the best draft in 2012 -- if the criteria is a playoff team that also drafted three 2012 opening day starters in a league where a team is lucky to find one. Playoff teams from the previous year -- minus the team I am about to mention -- will average under one rookie starter on opening day. That's what makes the Bengals' draft after a 9-7 season and a playoff spot last year the best in the league.

Dre Kirkpatrick, Kevin Zeitler and Mohammed Sanu should all crack the starting lineup. When you look back at 2011 with AJ Green and Andy Dalton, as well as 2010 with Jermaine Gresham, Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, it's obvious the Bengals are putting back-to-back-to-back good drafts together. The Bengals' run on good drafts is starting to remind me just a little of the 1980s, when the Buffalo Bills drafted Bruce Smith and Andre Reed in 1985, then Jim Kelly came in 1986 followed by Cornelius Bennett in '87 and Thurman Thomas in '88.

An old mentor of mine, Ron Ney, who scouted for us at the Jets after being a personnel director for the Chargers, always said, "Put three good drafts together and you will build a championship team, but most teams just can't do it with all the changes in coaching and front office."

The Bengals don't change much at the top of the organization, and Marvin Lewis is entering his 10th season as the head coach. It sure looks like a third good draft in a row, and maybe Ron Ney was right about the formula for a championship team.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/18957281/rookie-starters-for-2012-bengals-bucs-jags-browns-will-have-a-few

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Like most on Cincy Jungle, I’m pretty happy with the draft. They focused on the trenches, got players who were all great values, and were able to hit some needs too. Heck they even got a once-projected 1st round pick as a UFA. But before rookie camp, training camp, pre-season, or even the regular season, it’s a bit premature to know how good this 2012 crop of kids is.

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With that in mind, I offer a look at another Bengals draft that was considered a pretty awesome haul at the time. Here are the picks, and the evaluations from 2003....

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Round 1) Carson Palmer – Finally we get a great QB, who is being touted as the best pure passer since Peyton Manning came out 5 years earlier (yes, everybody is the next Peyton Manning). Unlike Akili and Klingler we’ve got an actual stud QB with a prominent pedigree and great arm.

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Round 2) Eric Steinbach – Finally, the Bengals get it. They address the O-Line with the top OG in the draft. It has been 7 years since the Bengals had taken an O-Lineman in the first couple of rounds, and it was greatly overdue. He was projected mid-round 1 and we get him in round 2, woo hoo!!!

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Round 3) Kelly Washington –A stud WR who averaged 6 catches and over 100 yards per game before an injury cut short his collegiate season. Big, strong, fast (6’3” 225 lb, 4.45-40) WR who lacks polish, but was projected as a last round 1 and we get him in round 3. What a steal!!!

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Round 4) Dennis Weathersby – He has great size & great speed (6’1” 205 lb, 4.38-40). Was a 3-time all-conf selection and graded as a 1st round talent. Was shot in the off-season, but will be fine when he recovers.

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Round 5) Khalid Abdullah – Fluid, athletic weakside LB who can cover as well as play the run. Graded as a 5th round guy w/upside who we got in round 5. Not bad.

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Our biggest needs were CB, OG, QB, FB and we got them all in this draft. Plus, many of the picks in the top half of the draft were considered steals in that they were rated much higher than we got them. Sweetness!!!!!

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So looking back in hindsight, was the 2003 draft really as great as it appeared 9 years ago?

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1) The Bengals drafted a lot of BPA picks, filling the roster with very good values. They have a lot of tough, physical players .They also filled the trenches with 3 of the first 5 picks.

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2) Unlike the fans, the team didn’t perceive a NEED at the RB position, waiting until round 6 to draft Boom Herron. Herron is probably a slower version of Peerman & Scott, who he is likely in competition with, and probably ends up as a PS guy.

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3) The Bengals have stacked their D-Line with a very potentially impressive rotation.

DT – Atkins / Peko / Sims / Still / Thompson

DE – Dunlap / Johnson / Geathers / Anderson / Harvey

They usually keep 8 total, so the question is who loses the battle for a roster spot, and is he traded or cut?

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4) The Bengals are set with their present LB’s from last year

Howard / Lawson / Moch / Muck / Maualuga / Skuta

They must be content with Maualuga in the middle, since they didn’t draft a replacement, or any LB’s for that matter.

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5) The Bengals answered the question “how many first round picks do you need in your secondary” with the answer of “1 more”. They now total 7 of them and have a good problem with a too many DB’s heading into the summer. It will be interesting to see which DB’s they plan to keep at CB, which if any they move to S, and which ones they keep on the roster. Presently they have 13 DB’s.

Name and (round they were drafted)

J Allen (1)

N Clements (1)

L Hall (1)

A Jones (1)

D Kirkpatrick (1)

R Nelson (1)

T Newman (1)

T Mays (2)

B Ghee (3)

G Iloka (5)

S Prater (5)

R Sands (5)

J Miles (UFA)

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6) Andy Dalton is going to have a set of very inexperienced receivers to throw to.

No experience...A Binns, M Sanu, M Jones, O Charles

1 Years of experience...AJ Green, A Hawkins, R Whalen

2 Years of experience...J Gresham, J Shipley (barely)

More than 2 years...D Lee

For an NFL draft, that was an outright sprint, but now that it’s over, what did we learn...?

1) The first 2 picks were, well...they were the same 2 picks that were advertized for the last couple of months.

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2) The Browns really liked Trent Richardson – enough to jump from #4 to #3 to ensure that they got him.

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3) Tampa really liked Mark Barron, who was projected in the 12~20 range, up at 7.

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4) Dallas got something of a steal with the best cover CB to come out in the last couple years at #6 overall.

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5) Any thoughts of Barron, Kuechly, Gilmore or Floyd falling to Cincy quickly vanished when they were taken at #7, #9, #10 and #13....although DeCastro took an unexpected tumble

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6) J’ville managed to snag an elite weapon for Gabbert. It will be interesting to see if Gabbert improves any this year, now having an actual WR to throw at.

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7) Miami will be looking for a franchise QB again in a couple years in the 2014 or 2015 draft.

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8) KC won the annual “grab the unproductive player who had an awesome combine” award with their pick of Poe who looked like a beast in workouts after a mediocre career.

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9) St Louis must have a lot of holes to fill, as they traded down, and down, and down...

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10) Arizona now has 2 very good WR’s in Fitz and Floyd. If they only had a QB, their passing offense would be dangerous.

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11) “Colt McCoy, welcome to bench”. I’m assuming they drafted Chris Weinke Jr (older QB who can start now) not to sit & develop until he is 30, but to start now. That seems to imply that McCoy is not their man.

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12) Seattle made the biggest “huh” move of the day by taking Bruce Irvin.

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13) NY Jets had a great talent fall to them, but it is interesting that after failing with an elite athlete at DE in V Gohston (who was actually very productive in college), to see if they have more success with Coples, who could potentially be as big of a bust as Golston.

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14) The Bengals really did not like David DeCastro, Cordy Glenn, or Riley Reiff for their O-Line. They passed on them once at #17 and then traded down out of #21 when they fell to them again. They also didn’t like Melvin Ingram - a projected top 10 talent who fell to them at #17. The Dre pick got mixed reactions on Cincy Jungle. With his good presense and tackling but questions about his elite speed & ball skills...i wonder if they took him to play safety, since he doesn’t seem like an elite shutdown corner? Would probably be a good CB, but a better S?

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15) Pittsburgh continues to make great value picks, bolstering the trenches, with picks like M Pouncey, D DeCastro, C Heyward & E Hood.

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16) Houston needs a WR, but apparently didn’t feel the urge to overreach for a project like Hill.

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17) Zeitler generated a lot of wtf reactions here on Cincy Jungle when he was taken. The positives are that he never allowed a sack in his career, and is an immediate starter at RG. He also probably handles the big DT's from the AFCN better than DeCastro, but the negatives are that he probably isn’t athletic enough to become pro-bowler, and isn’t named DeCastro (which pissed a lot of people off here). But he will be good.

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18) Green Bay made a typical Green Bay 1st round pick – on defense & in the trenches. Lombardi would be proud :-)

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19) The whole Doug Martin debate can finally be put to bed. Tampa took him at #31 overall, with the Giants taking David Wilson at #32 overall. They both projected in the low 30’s, and that’s where they fell. L Miller projects in that grouping also, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go shortly after 7pm today.

In many recent posts regarding round 1, the mention of Doug Martin as a round 1 prospect for the Bengals to target at #21 has caused a lot of debate from “heck yes” to “hell no” and everything in between.

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To try to bring a little (but by no means definitive) light onto where Doug should probably be drafted, and perhaps clip the whole Doug Martin debate, I’ve turned to an unbiased source (NFL.com) to get a baseline looking at prospect grades. Whether you agree w/their grades or not is not the point. It’s an easy source to get and hey, it is the NFL, after all so it’s what I used :-)

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1) I looked at the grades they gave the RB’s who got drafted in 2010 and 2011

2) I looked at where those RB’s got drafted in their drafts.

3) I looked at the grades of the 2012 RB’s

4) I then placed the 2012 RB’s into their respective slots in the draft based on 2010 and 2011.

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Continue reading this post »

Congrats to the following winners as being voted the best picks ever in their rounds as voted by the Cincy Jungle voters:

Round 1: A Munoz

Round 2: B Esiason 51%, C Johnson 23%, C Dillon 12%

Round 3: K Anderson 81%, D Fulcher 11%

Round 4: Rudi 59%, D Peko 26%

Round 5: P Inally 68%, T DeLone 14%, A Beauchamp 11%

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I’m skipping Round 6 & Round 7 as those rounds were discussed previously in a different set of posts by a different poster, so I’m moving on to the post-7th round selections.

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As some of you remember, the NFL draft used to be longer than its present 7-round format. In fact, it used to go on as long as 17 rounds. But over time the NFL shortened it until it reached its current length of 7 rounds. All of these guys listed below would have been UFA’s (undrafted free agents) in today’s 7 round draft.

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So in honor of those guys taken late, very late, in the draft.... this is your chance to vote for the best player that the Bengals’ franchise has ever drafted after round 7. I’m assuming this will turn out to be a 2-man race, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

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Here are the candidates

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Looking at their size, speed, strength from their combine #’s they are very, very similar.

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Martin is a little shorter, but otherwise they are pretty much the same guy at the combine.

They each put up 28 reps.

Leonard was a little faster at 4.52 vs. 4.55

Leonard had a better broad jump by 2” while Martin had a better vertical by 1.5”

Their 20 yard shuttle and 3-cone drill were within 0.10 seconds of each other.

They are each 4th year seniors.

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Former voting winners...

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Round 1: A Munoz

Round 2: B Esiason 51%, C Johnson 23%, C Dillon 12%

Round 3: K Anderson 81%, D Fulcher 11%

Round 4: R Johnson 62%, D Peko 25%

(voting is still underway but Rudi has a huge lead, so I’m going to call it and move on to the 5th round)

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So on to the candidates:

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Congrats to Munoz, Boomer & Kenny Anderson for cleaning up on the rounds 1, 2, 3 top pick awards.

Round 1: A Munoz

Round 2: B Esiason 51%, C Johnson 23%, C Dillon 12%

Round 3: K Anderson 81%, D Fulcher 11%

Unfrotunately in round 4 the pickings get very slim with names much less prolific than Munoz, Esiason and Anderson

So on to the candidates:

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Juan Francisco has done nothing but produce at every level of the minors he's been in, cranking out 2B's, HR's and a lot of RBI's. END has a career major league slash of 0.285 / 0.330 / 0.477, and projecting his career major league #'s over a full season, he has 100 RBI's too.

I realize that Walt perfers lite-hitting singles hitters who are decent all-around players and great at generating LOB's over guys like END (who may be 1-dimensional, but can drive in tons of RBI's) and thus END was jettisoned.

But how has that worked out so far?

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Congratulations to Boomer Esiason, who has a pretty big lead in the voting for best 2nd round pick every by the Bengals.

I think this is going to be a race between a few horses, but to give more guys a chance, I’ve listed the top 7 to pick from. Anyway, the 3rd round....

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I originally was going to ask who the best 1st round overall pick was, but that was pretty obvious - Anthony Munoz.

Reasons why Munoz is the obvious choice for top 1st round pick...

+He is the only Bengals player in the HOF for his on the field dominance

+In 12 years as a starter, he accumulated 11 Pro-Bowls and 9 First Team All Pro selections

+The 9 First Team All Pro selections are more than every other Bengals' first round pick combined

OK, so on to the 2nd round....

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First off, i'll preface this by saying all #'s come from pro football reference.

They do not list colleges for 14 out of the 575 draft picks, so the #'s are not 100% exact., but within 97.6% accuracy. So for this forum...that's good enough.

Also, the trivia questions are supposed to be answered without looking up answers in any reference ! ! !

I can only do 1 poll per post, so question 1 is just a "write your answer in your comments" and question 2 is the poll.

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The last 3 RB’s drafted by the Bengals have all been very similar. They are undersized, shifty guys who can catch the ball if necessary. None have been the bruiser, workhorse types, but are merely situational guys.

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2011 Jay Finley 5’11”...200lbs

2009 Bernard Scott 5’10”...200lbs

2007 Kenny Irons 5’11”...200lbs

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With this in mind, it seems evident that for whatever reason (maybe you know, and will share?) this is what the Bengals are looking for to fill their roster. They want a 5’10”-5’11” 200 lbs RB.

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Looking at the current roster:

BJGE (5’11”...215 lbs) is similar to Benson (5’11”...225) and will likely have a similar, yet reduced role. Neither is elusive or fast, but both are inside the tackles types of runners who will get short-yardage and goal line carries. I don’t think BJGE will get as many carries as Benson got, though.

Brian Leonard (6’01”...230 lbs) is a typical WCO fullback – a bit undersized with good hands, although he is used as a 3rd down back.

Cedric Peerman (5’09”...210 lbs) is the backup that fans love because he tears it up on special teams, but never gets a shot on the offense.

Bernard Scott (5’10”...200 lbs) is the one that fits the Finley/Scott/Irons profile that the Bengals are so keen on drafting lately.
Chris Pressley (5’11”...260 lbs) is a prototypical fullback.

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The Bengals have invested all their RB draft picks over the last half decade on finding an effective 5’11” 200 lbs RB. They reached for Irons to fill it and he got hurt. They selected Scott to fill it, but have been unimpressed w/him, so last year they drafted Finley to replace Scott. But the Bengals apparently didn’t realize what most draft prospect analyst knew – Finley wasn’t that good. The Bengals eventually found this out, and Scott stayed around for another year.

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Looking at their recent history, it’s this 5’11” 200 lbs frame RB that the Bengals want to add to their roster. I think BJGE, Leonard and Pressley all have their roles on Gruden’s offense, and none of them fill this 5’11” 200 lbs spot, which they apparently want to upgrade over Bernard Scott. They unsuccessfully tried it last year, and will likely try it again this year.

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There is no doubt that AJ Green had an awesome rookie season.

Typically rookie WR's don't do much their first year, and even the elite ones take a year or two until they fully emerge.

Comparing AJ Green to other great current WR's in their rookie seasons, and comparing him to other recent high draft pick WR's, AJ was arguably was the best of them all:

yellow is best, green is 2nd best

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He was the only WR of that whole group to top 1,000 in his rookie season. He was 2nd overall in TD's and receptions.

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But...

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Having listened to Marty & Jeff & whoever else they use on a given day stumble over themselves at some of the more interesting managerial decision of the dusty baker that manages to put his touch on the Reds, here are my baker's dozen, or my 13 favorite nuggets of wisdom that i have learned from the baker...

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1 IND...A LUCK, QB...boy, that was easy

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2 WAS...RGIII, QB...you don’t give away all those picks to trade up for something other than a QB, and Tannenhill isn’t getting that much hype

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3 MIN...M KALIL, OT...all mock drafts should start at #4 since the first 3 are more or less given.

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4 CLE...M CLAIBORNE, CB...the Brows are now run by ex-Packers. The Packers don’t draft skill guys high in the draft, but focus on O-Line and Defense. So I’m not taking Trent or Blackmon here. Claiborne is the top O-Line or Defensive player at #4, and forms a formidable tandem w/Haden.

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5 TB... T RICHARDSON, RB...Tent is a huge upgrade over Blount, but Blackmon would be a huge upgrade over a regressing M Williams and underproductive Benn. The terrible QB play could be improved by Blackmon, but I think Trent is more pressing for them to take.

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6 STL... J BLACKMON, WR...I really could see 5 & 6 flipped. St Louis desperately needs WR help though.

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7 JAX...M FLOYD, WR...when your top receiver has under 500 yards, you have serious problems on offense. They could use a M Roth replacement, but the offense is screaming for help.

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8 MIA...R TANNENHILL, QB...the popular pick for them lately. If Ponder & Locker & Gabbert taught us anything last year, it’s that teams will reach for QB’s when they don’t have one. M Moore is a nice stop-gap but isn’t a solution. The team who hasn’t had a quality QB since Marino will try to find a serviceable QB here.

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9 CAR...L KUECHLY, LB...apparently Carolina is smitten with him. He’s more popular as a 10~15 type of pick, but 9’s awful close to the 10~15 range.

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10 BUF...R REIFF, OT...They’re paying a lot of $ to Fitzpatrick & Stevie Johnson, and with CJ Spiller and Fred Jax running the ball, they have the weapons they want – now they’ve got to put together the line to make the weapons effective.

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11 KC...D DECASTRO, OG...sorry he isn’t falling to Cincy way down at 17.

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12 SEA...M INGRAM, DE...a great fit for them and a great pickup in terms of top player on the board

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13 ARI...F COX, DT...he’s jumping up rankings lately and is a top player here for them. They could use a WR to replace Boldin, but there is nobody worth #13 overall available at WR with Floyd already gone.

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14 DAL...D POE, DT...like Carolina w/Kuechly, apparently Dallas really likes this year’s combine hero Poe.

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15 PHI...M BROCKERS, DT...no, this isn’t an intentional run on DT’s. Philly seems to like Brockers, and he could be a good fit. He’s a reasonable value here. They could go in multiple directions.

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16 NYJ...M BARRON, SS...they missed out on Reggie Nelson, so they get their safety here.

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17 CIN...S GILMORE, CB...Question – how many 1st round CB’s do the Bengals need? Answer – One more. ha ha! From all the Cincy Jungle posts I’ve read, he’s the favorite pick here of anybody remaining.

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18 SD...Q COPLES, DE...I don’t see him falling any farther. Great talent. Fits what the Chargers need.

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19 CHI...C GLENN, OG...The Bears need help on the O-Line, especially at guard.

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20 TEN...J MARTIN, OT...A blocker for Chris Johnson and whoever they decide to run out there at QB. Martin is rated anywhere from 10~30, so he could be a good value at 20.

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21 CIN...C UPSHAW, DE...I think Dre is out of the mix if they grab Gilmore at 17, and 21 seems high for Konz, who is good but not elite. A lot of folks may want K Wright or a reach for D Martin here, but Marvin seems to like Reinard Wilson/D Pollack 2.0, and if he’s still there, he could be the pick. They want to reduce Michael Johnson’s reps, and D Harvey wasn’t available cheap because he’s good. So there is certainly a spot on their defense for him. I think the loudest screams from Cincy Jungle land in this case would be for K Wright, but I don’t see them taking another 1st round WR, especially if they like Upshaw as much as they seem to like him.

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Let’s face it. After 21, who cares? But just for the heck of it, I continued on

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22 CLE...K WRIGHT, WR...they passed on WR/RB early in round 1 but desperately need a playmaker, and he’s a good value here with an extra 1st round pick.

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23 DET...D KIRKPATRICK, CB...They need a CB, and after dealing w/Nick Fairly, I’m not seeing them grab another potential red flag in Jenkins. Not that Dre is clean of his own red flags, but is the cleaner of the top 2 CB’s remaining.

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24 PIT...D HIGHTOWER, LB...They always seem to go defense. They took D Linemen Hood & Heyward recently, and now grab a good LB.

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25 DEN...C FLEENER, TE...They need somebody for Manning to throw the ball to. The free agents they signed aren’t exactly starter material. Fleener could easily start for them, and the best WR’s left are reaches, and you don’t sign Manning who has a short shelf life remaining only to draft WR’s that may need a year or two until they produce. Hill would be like D Thomas if they went for him, and I’m not sure they can wait for Hill to develop into something useful.

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26 HOU...S HILL, WR...Speaking of reaching for WR’s. WR is the big hole in Houston, and they can afford to draft a project like Hill and bring him along slowly with Andre Johnson & other serviceable receivers already in house.

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27 NE...W MERCILUS, DE...They need help up front with some good, young players.

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28 GB...N PERRY, DE...Typical Green Bay pick, improve in the trenches or on defense with a good quality player.

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29 BAL...P KONZ, C...can replace Grubbs now, and eventually Birk.

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30 SF...J JENKINS, CB...the defense was good, but could use help at CB.

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31 NE...D STILL, DT...what is this? The Patriots always seem to have multiple 1st round picks. Geesh!

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32 NYG...M ADAMS, OT...a good value at a good position type of pick.

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The time of the annual NFL draft is upon us, when football fans justify spending all day watching something that doesn’t even involve anybody playing football. It’s the time of year when a fan will sit and watch teams take forever to make a few picks, and listen to countless hours of prospect analysis which pretty much matches the analysis that has been dished out all winter.

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Any of you with girlfriends or wives may be aware that they find it odd that one would willingly spend hours watching people in suits announce names of other people who have just been drafted. But what they likely find even more odd are the various phrases and terminology that the ‘experts’ like Mayock, Keiper, Casserly, et al use in describing the prospects. It’s not every day you hear a fellow human being praised for “having a motor” or “sand in his pants”.

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The phrases, what they mean, and what your wife or girlfriend may think they mean...

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The groups of players comprise the same total positions: 1 OT, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 DE, 1 CB, 2 LB

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GROUP A

OT – Andre Smith...27 games, Car AV = 2

RB – Kenny Irons...0 games

WR – Jerome Simpson...71 rec, 1004 yd, 7 td

DE – Michael Johnson...59 tkl, 1 int, 11.5 sacks

CB – Leon Hall...222 tkl, 20 int, 0 sacks

LB – Keith Rivers...120 tkl, 2 int, 2 sacks

LB – Rey Maualuga...132 tkl, 3 int, 2 sacks

1006 total yards, 7 total td’s

540 tkl, 26 int, 15.5 sacks

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GROUP B

OT – Ryan Clady...64 games, Car AV = 33, 1 pro-bowl, 1 all-pro season

RB – Ray Rice...6,612 total yards, 29 total td, 2 pro-bowls

WR – Mike Wallace...171 rec 3206 yards, 24 td, 1 pro-bowl

DE – Charles Johnson...119 tkl, 0 int, 30.5 sacks

CB – Jarius Byrd...166 tkl, 13 int, 2 sacks, 1 pro-bowl

LB – Clay Matthews...131 tkl, 4 int, 29.5 sacks, 3 pro-bowls, 1 all-pro

LB – Lamar Woodley...169 tkl, 4 int, 48.0 sacks, 1 pro-bowl

9962 total yards, 53 total td’s

598 tkl, 21 int, 110 sacks

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So what is the main difference between Group A and Group B?

Group A is drafting by NEED

Group B is drafting by Best Available

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To do a mock draft, you really have to have an idea of who will be taken before your team picks, so you know who to take for your team (the Bengals). i took a look at about a dozen reputable mock drafts (that have all been updated in APril) and compiled the top 16 picks to get a reasonable idea of who is projected/expected to be gone before the Bengals make selection 1a. And then i looked at the next 3 guys off the board to see who is left at pick 1b.

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Below are the names and average draft position of the top 16 guys taken when averaging a dozen or so mock drafts. So safely assume that all these guys are likely gone when the Bengals make pick 1a.

1 - A LUCK (1.0) QB

2 - RGIII (2.0) QB

3 - M KALIL (3.4) OT

4 - T RICHARDSON (4.3) RB

5 - M CLAIBORNE (5.0) CB

6 - J BLACKMON (6.1) WR

7 - R TANNENHILL (7.3) QB

8 - Q COPLES (10.0) DE

9 - D POE (10.6) DT

10 - M INGRAM (11.0) DE

11 - F COX (11.1) DT

12 - R REIFF (12.0) OT

13 - D DECASTRO (12.9) OG

14 - M FLOYD (13.6) WR

15 - L KUECHLY (14.7) ILB

16 - D KIRKPATRICK (18.1) CB
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Then the Bengals get to make a selection at 17, and the next 3 guys go off the boards. Per the dozen or so mock drafts, the next 3 guys who go average to be. So safely assume that these guys are additionally gone when the Bengals make pick 1b.

17 - C UPSHAW (18.4) OLB

18 - C GLENN (18.7) OG

19 - S GILMORE (19.7) CB

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So what does that leave the Bengals?

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Group A - Guys who will be available at pick 17:

DB - S Gilmore, M Barron, J Jenkins

O Line - C Glenn, J Martin, P Konz, M Adams

WR - K Wright, S Hill, A Jeffery, R Randle

D Line - M Brockers, W Mercilus, D Still, A Branch, N Perry

LB - C Upshaw, D Hightower

RB - D Martin, L Miller, D Wilson

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Group B - guys who will be available at pick 21:

DB - M Barron, J Jenkins

O Line - J Martin, P Konz, M Adams

WR - K Wright, S Hill, A Jeffery, R Randle

D Line - M Brockers, W Mercilus, D Still, A Branch, N Perry

LB - D Hightower

RB - D Martin, L Miller, D Wilson

Continue reading this post »

I've taken a look at the last dozen years in an attempt to see what the NFL trend is for the running game vs. the passing game. Is the rushing attack going away in favor of the high flying passing attack? A lot of people are claiming this is the case, but what do the #'s show?

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Percentage of offensive plays that are RUSHING plays from 2000 to 2011:

45.6%, 45.8%, 44.9%, 46.8%, 46.9%, 46.6%, 46.9%, 45.1%, 46.1%, 45.3%, 44.6%, 44.5%

So the % of plays that are rushes vs. passes has pretty much remained steady between 45%~47% over the last dozen years. But...

+The % of rushing plays has steadily dropped over the last 4 seasons

+2010 and 2011 had the lowest rushing %'s of the last decade

+From 2000~2008 the % of rushing plays was 46.1%, over the last 3 seasons it is only 44.8% (-2.8%)

So there is an indication that rushing plays overall are on a slight decline.

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But what about the % of teams that run a ton, has that changed?

From 2000~2008...the avg. # of teams that rushed 500+ times was 5.4, from 2009~2011 it was 3.3 (-38%)

From 2000~2008...the avg. # of teams that rushed 450+ times was 13.2, from 2009~2011 it was 11.0 (-17%)

There is a significant drop over the last 3 years of teams that are heavy runners.

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What about the workhorse RB's? Are they truly going out of fashion, or is that a myth?

From 2000~2006 the # of RB's that rushed 300+ attempts averaged 9.0, and was at least 9 in 6 of those 7 years.

From 2007~2010 the # of RB's that rushed 300+ attempts averaged 6.0

In 2011 the #of RB's that rushed 300+ attempts was only 2

From 2000~2005 there were 17 RB's who rushed 350+ times, averaging 2.8 per year

From 2006~2011 there was a total of 4, and none in the last 2 seasons.

There is a significant drop in the # of RB's who are placed in workhorse roles, carrying the load for their teams.

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So are teams really throwing a lot more, or just a little bit more?

From 2000~2009 there were only 2 total teams who threw 650+ times

In 2010 and in 2011 there were 2 teams who threw 650+ times each season

From 2000~2007 there was an average of 1.9 teams per season who threw 600+ times

From 2008~2011 there was an average of 3.3 teams per season who threw 600+ times

Over the last 3 seasons there were 13.7 teams per season who threw 550+ times, in the years before that only 10.3

Teams are throwing more - especially over the last 3 seasons, and the trend is continuing.
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What about picking RB's high in the draft? Is that a thing of the past? If teams are running less, and teams are relying on workhorse/cowbell types of backs, how is that playing out in the draft?

From 2000~2008 the average draft position of the first 5 RB's drafted was 30.3

From 2009~2011 the average draft position of the first 5 RB's drafted was 39.3 (+30%)

From 2000~2008 the average # of RB's drafted in round 1 was 3.2

From 2009~2011 the average # of RB's drafted in round 1 was 2.3 (-28%)

From 2000~2008 the average # of RB's drafted in the top 50 picks was 4.3

From 2009~2011 the average # of RB's drafted in the top 50 picks was 2.7 (-38%)

So running backs are getting pushed back further in the draft in the last few years, but not totally out of round 1.

Continue reading this post »

I think Walt has a specific formula which he used in St Louis, and has been trying to implement in Cincy over the last few year

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You get 1 absolute stud of a player

In St Louis it was Poo Holes...in Cincy it’s Votto

Both hitters are great defensively and both play 1B, but that may be coincidental

I think Walt saw that Poo Holes left St Louis and didn’t want that to repeat in Cincy so did the very long 10-year deal to ensure they kept Votto

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You protect your 1 stud with a very good hitter behind him

In StLouis they got Matt Holiday for this role, and he has done it well, but in Cincy they are still trying to get this guy.

They signed Bruce long-term hoping he’s our eventual cheaper, younger version of Holiday, but he isn’t there yet.

Rolen is kind of that guy for now, which is unfortunate because he is steadily dropping off from his once great offensive abilities. He’s a very good “professional” hitter, but not exactly ideal to protect your big bat.

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You get some very good starting pitchers

St Louis has Carpenter/Wainwright, and Cincy has Cueto/Latos

You fill out the rest of your rotation with solid pitchers and not junk – like the 2000’s Reds’ rotations

St Louis has guys like Garcia, and Cincy has guys like Leake & Chapman

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Build a solid bullpen

I’m not going to list out all the names, but you know the Reds’ guys, and they are overall a good unil, even if (like St Louis) they don’t have a stud closer (anymore)....darn injuries!

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Fill out the rest of your lineup with all-around players who are decent but not great

St Louis has their Molina, Shumaker, Jon Jay, Freese types who are 10~20 HR, 0.250~0.280 BA guys – nothing special, but all around decent players who can be effective in all aspects of the game.

That’s why Walt will keep guys like Heisey, Cozart, Hanigan, Frazier, Valiaka and Janish (mediocre hitters with little power, but can play defense and run adequately and do the ‘little things’ that make them more complete) over guys like Juan Francisco or Yonder Alonso who are much bigger bats and much better offensively, but may be limited in the ‘overall’ aspects of the game.

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Continue reading this post »

i found this chart interesting. it's a projected roster based on present players, their contracts, and the prospects in the pipeline. it goes out from 2012~2017


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/3/20/2886104/a-graphic-look-at-the-window-to-win-cincinnati-reds

the chart is below in the comments

well, that's it, but i need a lot more words until SBNation will let me post.

so i'm just going to start writing after the jump and abruptly end when i hit my maximum words in order to post.

Continue reading this post »

The offense was great, finishing 4th overall, but as good as the offense was, the defense was equally bad. The defense finished in the bottom 10, and the passing defense was 26th overall. They were almost dead last in sacks.

2006 Draft

FIRST ROUND - CB J Joseph (they had Deltha O'Neal's All-Pro season, and Tory James wasn't bad...but the pass defense was a huge hole)

SECOND ROUND - OT Whitworth (They had a great O-Line with Willie, Levi, Steinbach, Braham & Bobbie...but they went best available, and took a potential very good LT)

THIRD ROUND - DE Frostee Rucker (the pass defense was bad because of a terrible pass rush)

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2006 - After a surprising 2005, the followup was a disappointing 8-8. The offense again was very good at 8th overall, but the defense was again in the bottom half of the league, and the pass defense finished 32nd overall.

2007 Draft

FIRST ROUND - CB Leon Hall (the pass defense was terrible and was again addressed by another cornerback)

SECOND ROUND - RB Kenny Irons (i personally thought this was a wtf pick at the time since i was hoping they'd draft Ryan Kalil, but i think they were looking for a pass catcher out of the backfield, and somebody who had the speed that Rudi lacked. It's wasn't a bpa pick was a reach to target a specific need on offense that they thought had to be filled)

THIRD ROUND - The Bengals had no 3rd round pick in 2006

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2007 - A further disappointment, they dropped to 7-9 and were 2 years removed from that great 11-5 season. The offense again finished in the top 10, but the defense was in the bottom 10. Chad demanded a trade, and TJ was 1 year away from free agency, and 30 years old so WR looked like a big need.

2008 Draft

FIRST ROUND - LB K Rivers(the defense still needed work, and the LB corps was servicable but lacking any stars, although some speculated that Cincy would have preferred S Ellis or D Harvey who went right before their pick)

SECOND ROUND - WR Jerome Simpson (With Chad & TJ looking to be 1 year away from leaving, they went for a BPA receiver figuring he'd have 1 year to learn the position and then become a stud)

THIRD ROUND - DT Pat Sims (a BPA pickup in an area of need)

THIRD ROUND - WR Andre Caldwell (another WR to replace the soon to be departed stars, but one would could start right away)

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2008 - An all around ugly season at 4-11-1 with Palmer injured and the offense dropping to one of the worst in the league, while the defense improved to the middle of the pack.

2009 Draft

FIRST ROUND - OT Andre Smith (Levi Jones & Stacy Andrews were on their way out and OT was the biggest need. With Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Monroe, Oher & Britton, there were 5 first round calibre OT's, but in hindsight none of them were that great)

SECOND ROUND - LB Rey Maualuga (was purely a BPA pickup of a playmaker who was a projected mid 1st pick)

THIRD ROUND - DE MIchael Johnson (like Simpson in 2008, Johnson was a great athlete who could sit for a year behind Geathers & Odom before taking over)

THIRD ROUND - TE Chase Coffman (a talented pass receiver who Cincy envisioned turning into a TE after sitting for a year behind Reggie Kelly)

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2009 - A surprising division crown with a 10-6 season. The offense struggled and was near the bottom of the pile, while the defense continued to improve and finished 6th overall.

2010 Draft

FIRST ROUND - TE Jermaine Gresham (The offense was the weak link. They hadn't had a good TE since Rodney Holman. Kelly had gotten hurt, Coffman couldn't block, and JP Foshi was their top option. TE was their biggest need)

SECOND ROUND - DE Carlos Dunlap (a BPA pickup who also filled a need, since Odom had been hurt much of 2009, and Geathers wasn't exactly great)

THIRD ROUND - WR Jordan Shipley (a BPA and TJ replacement)

THIRD ROUND - CB Brandon Ghee (a BPA in a position that was already strong with Hall & Joseph)

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2010 - A terrible 4-12 season which saw the offense & defense both struggle. Carson wanted out, and Chad was on the way out. Clearly the biggest need was a starting QB and a WR.

2011 Draft

FIRST ROUND - WR AJ Green (filled 1 of the 2 big needs without reaching for the QB's not worth a 1st round pick)

SECOND ROUND - QB Andy Dalton (a BPA, and also a big need. they got their starting QB while taking a great player)

THIRD ROUND - DE Dontay Moch (a talented athlete who could sit for a year learning the position and then hopefully start down the road)

So what do the historical Bengals' drafts show us?

Round 1 - Draft a player in a position of immediate need who can start right away

Round 2 - Draft the best player available

Round 3 - Draft a great athlete who can sit and learn, and hopefully start down the road

Continue reading this post »

1) I’ve grouped the Reds’ players based on their weighted average age that they played in AAA. So if a guy played 90 games in AAA at age 24 and 10 games at age 25, his weighted average age in AAA would be 24.1 years old.

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2) For cumulative stats (HR’s, RBI’s, etc...) I took their AAA #’s and projected everybody over a 550 AB season, so their cumulative stats are all equally comparable.

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21 and Under

There are 2 Reds who hit AAA with a weighted average age of 21 or less.

Jay Bruce 20.5

Scott Rolen 21.0

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We all know how Rolen has done throughout his career, but how does Bruce stack up?

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JB 0.334 / 0.375 / 0.598...babip 0.391...iso 0.264

SR 0.274 / 0.376 / 0.411...babip 0.317...iso 0.137

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Jay absolutely dominates, crushes, demolishes Rolen when it comes to the power #’s, and was a much better hitter. Although Rolen did have a much better BB:K ratio of 1.0 compared to Bruce’s 0.29, but other than that Bruce destroyed Rolen for their AAA #’s at similar ages. The assumption is that it’s possible to assume that Bruce could do as well or better than Rolen at the major league level, as a hitter!

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23 Year Olds

There are 4 hitters who all played in AAA at the 23 age range

Brandon Phillips 22.8

Devin Mesoraco 22.9

Joey Votto 23.0

Juan Francisco 23.3

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Interestingly, Juan Francisco is the clear stud of the group, while Phillips is the dud.

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JF 0.305 / 0.337 / 0.559...babip 0.352 ... iso 0.254

JV 0.294 / 0.381 / 0.478...babip 0.332 ... iso 0.184

DM 0.283 / 0.366 / 0.482... babip 0.325 ... iso 0.201

BP 0.269 / 0.330 / 0.411... babip .0292 ... iso 0.142

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Juan had a very low 0.17 bb/k ratio while the other 3 were all in the 0.56~0.64 range.

Juan, Joey & Devin all had 95~102 RBI’s and all averaged 100+ K’s

Juan & Devin each had about 44% extra base hit %, compared to 31% for Joey. Juan & Devin each averaged 40+ doubles, but Juan had the best HR #’s of the group.

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Given as well as Phillips has done, it’s encouraging to see that Devin & Juan have done much, much better, and they even bettered Votto in AAA at the same age. I find it encouraging that Juan & Devin could possibly become big time hitters if given a fair chance.

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Old Man Crossing

Stubbs has a weighted average age in AAA of 23.8 while Heisey, Frazier, Cozart and Janish all have a weighted average age in AAA higher than 24. So while the guys listed in the previous groupings were already reaching AAA and aiming for the majors, these guys languished in AAA a few years longer. Not surprisingly, their AAA #’s are not nearly as good as the guys in the above groups.

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Frazier 0.262/ 0.338 / 0.457... babip 0.314 ... iso 0.195

Heisey 0.269 / 0.319 / 0.456... babip 0.294 ... iso 0.187

Cozart 0.275 / 0.327 / 0.435... babip 0.309 ... iso 0.160

Stubbs 0.272 / 0.353 / 0.379... babip 0.354 ... iso 0.107

Janish 0.240 / 0.306 / 0.360... babip 0.281 ... iso 0.120

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Other than Stubbs’ high OBP, both him & Janish were the duds in this group, struggling to do much of anything offensively. Nobody really stood out, and everybody had an OPS lower than 800. Frazier was the best of this mediocre group although his K% was even higher than Stubbs.

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It looks like these guys would all project out to be platoon quality guys, backups, utility men, and starters only for teams w/o better options.

Below is the current pre-draft, pre-UFA roster of the Cincy Bengals heading into the draft.

All practice squad guys are in (xxx). By my count we have a total of 61 guys presently (47 regulars and 14 practice squad guys).

Continue reading this post »

Our present defensive secondary is flooded with 1st round picks. It would be hard to imagine that we could squeeze any more in there even if we tried. Just imagine how much trading up we would have had to done over the last decade to acquire all the guys in our secondary who are former 1st round picks.....

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Adam Jones...First Round...#6...2005

Jason Allen...#16...2006

Leon Hall...#18...2007

Nate Clements...#21...2001

Reggie Nelson...#21...2007

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What's interesting is that our secondary is filled with 1st round picks, while our linebackers average being taken at round 2.4, and the defensive line averages at round 3.4.

So we actually are taking our starters in later rounds, the closer they play to the line of scrimmage....whcih is kind of backwards since you win up front, and one would expect that we would want our better players on the line. oh well.

DB: 1.2 = 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2 (Jones, Allen, Hall, Clements, Nelson, Mays)

LB: 2.4 = 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, ufa (Rivers, Howard, Maualuga, Moch, Muck, Skuta)

DL: 3.4 = 2, 3, 4, 4, 4 (Dunlap, Johnson, Atkins, Geathers, Peko)