This story originally ran in April, 2009. Bumping it as Luhnow has now accepted offer to join the Houston Astros as General Manager. This is great insight into what should be a good hire for the team. Check it out:

For those of you who don't know, Jeff Luhnow is the VP of Amateur Scouting and Player Development for the St. Louis Cardinals. As you'll read from the interview, Jeff comes from a business background, and among other things has had a hand in integrating data-based analysis into some of its personnel decision-making processes in the Cardinals' organization. He was over the '05-'08 drafts, which included highly-regarded prospects such as Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace and Chris Perez.

Jeff was nice enough to agree to a little Q and A before the Cardinals kicked off their season. The questions are a group effort from the BtB staff sent over email, so I hope you don't mind if they are a little scatter-barrel.

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An unofficial St. Louis Cardinals blog is pretty unoriginal and is flat out blander than bland. I know VEB peoples are more creative than this. 

Lookout Landing switches out their tagline constantly, anything from proclaiming hatred for people who think Adrian Beltre is overpaid and overrated, to commenting on their center fielders sexiness, to their most recent "Felix is Ours and You Can't Have Him"

McCovey Chronicles has the humorous "In Play: Outs" as their tagline. Using GameDay language while mocking your team simultaneously in such a pithy fashion has to make the blog more fun for their community. 

Royals Review has "Nobody Getz out Alive". Using a pun with their utility infielder. Not bad. 

How in the world does VEB, the meme factory that it is, get stuck with a tagline of "An Unofficial St. Louis Cardinals blog" for YEARS? 

C'mon VEB staff. Make with a tagline. We need something snappy, stat.  

We're a few weeks removed from the 2010 Hall of Fame election, an election that went rather swimmingly, I must say. While the results of this past election is still fresh in our minds, I figure there's no better time like the present to start making the case for some of the new hitters on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot. The sooner we can start educating, the better for some of these players. 

What's that you say? You mean the vast majority of the BBWAA doesn't subscribe to Beyond the Boxscore in their favorite RSS reader? Well, pooh. There goes my self-esteem. That also probably explains some of the latest results. Well, at least we can dust off the WAR graphs and begin to form some good, old-fashioned BBTF Groupthink Approved thoughts on who belongs in the Hall of Merit for next year. 

Time to break out the tried and true WAR Trajectory graphs. In all graphs, we're plotting Sean (CHONE) Smith's WAR for individual seasons, ranked best to worst. The "HoF Zone" is a range that spans from the average Hall of Famer down to the 20th percentile Hall of Famer. The template comes from our own JinAZ, and a bunch of folks assisted in the effort of their creation. (Sky Kalkman, Jeff Zimmerman, Tom Tango, and Dave Studeman).

(Click on the image for a larger view).

Jeff Bagwell is a no-brainer, at least I would think. If writers are looking for strikes against him, he doesn't have 500 homers or 3000 hits, and he inexplicably made just four All-Star teams over his illustrious 15-year career. Bagwell has more career WAR than Johnny Mize (70.1), Eddie Murray (66.7), Willie McCovey (65.1) and Harmon Killebrew (61.2). 

My concern for Larry Walker is that he will get punished more for playing most of his career in Colorado than Palmeiro will for his use of steroids. I think in the early days of Coors Field, writers, fans and even GM's were prone to get a little enamored with the inflated numbers that came out of the high altitude. (Consider the contracts that this guy and this guy received as cases in point). The backlash has been is that too many people view all Colorado hitters with an unhealthy dose of suspicion now. Think of how many in the mainstream were yakking about Matt Holliday's Home/Road splits after he was traded to Oakland last year. This is why using WAR works, it neutralizes the crazy park effects. FanGraph's wRAA, which does not adjust for park on the player's career stats, gives Walker credit for 570 runs above average. After Rally made applied his park-adjustments, Walker's career RAA is 384. (Of course, FanGraphs does apply park factors when calculating its version of WAR). 

In spite of the penalty, Walker is still very much in the Hall of Fame "zone". He's not a exactly a no-doubter like Bagwell, but he's up there with the likes of Groupthink Approved new HOM inductees Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar. And he's right up there with Tony Gwynn, another player who hit .350 or better in multiple seasons. Walker did it four times, Gwynn, seven. Walker doesn't have the counting stats of Gwynn, but he won seven Gold Gloves and was one heck of a surprisingly good baserunner. 

Jack Moore of FanGraphs took a good look at John Olerud's Hall of Fame case and found he compares well with Dawson. If you're a Dawson guy, you probably should consider Olerud as well. It would be cool to see someone wearing a batting helmet instead of a ballcap on their plaque in Cooperstown. 

Lastly, we have Rafael Palmeiro, who is next in line to be the steroids whipping boy. I'm sure there are some who will argue his stats are better than McGwire's, but the gulf between the two isn't big. McGwire has three less WAR over his career, but had 3919 less plate appearances. Both players had their careers prolonged by steroids (I guess, I don't really know for sure), but McGwire did a little more with less, and his peak was better. 

I would personally vote Bagwell and Walker, to go with Blyleven, Larkin, Trammell, Gar, Alomar and Raines for 2011. I don't know what to do with Palmeiro or McGwire.  Please don't pummel me with rocks, steroid-ambivalent folk. 

We've hit that (not so) fun time of the year when the weather starts to get really cold and the Hall of Fame debates start to heat up. These are some of the new guys on this year's ballot, some of these players are solid choices, others...not so much. Take heart Crime Dog, Jim Rice set a whole new standard! 12 years from now, you too could be Cooperstown bound.

My inclination was that Alomar would have been the best candidate out of the five but as it turns out, I was wrong. Larkin will probably get overlooked initially no thanks to injuries; hopefully he gets more support than Alan Trammell has received in the past. Both are worthy, in my opinion.

As for Edgar Martinez, I thought that whole non-position positional adjustment would have really hurt, but he has a solid case for the Hall, DH and all. If relief pitchers can get elected, why not Gar?

Finally, since we're nearing Festivus, I would like to air a grievance that has been aired by many a Tiger fan. Lou Whitaker has more career WAR (70) than any of these players, and yet was bounced in his first year of eligibility. Where's the flippin' justice, man?!?!

Thanks to Justin for the template for this graph, and Rally for his WAR database.

This year’s NL Cy Young vote was one of the closest in history, but 1987’s vote was the closest ever. Let’s take a quick retrospective.

Steve Bedrosian? Whiff!

Let's consult Rally's Historical WAR Database to find the "shoulda been" winner.

It turns out Orel Hershiser was the guy, but he had 16 losses, which is of course is anathema. His teammate Bob Welch was equally as good, and yet received only one lowsy 3rd place vote. He checked in with just 15 wins. Good performance but wrong era, guys.

Nolan Ryan was as good as Rick Sutcliffe, but despite 270 strikeouts, Ryan obviously didn't know how to win. Pssshh.

For all the holy outrage against certain newbies who are now voting BBWAA, just take a gander at 1987's results. People have done a lot crazier things with their ballots.

The Kazmir deal has been completed today, with Sean Rodriguez heading to Tampa Bay. By my count, this makes three solid prospects for a player who you could make the argument has little to no surplus value, making this a potential steal for Tampa Bay. Using Sky's Trade Value Calculator, here's my hunch for Kazmir.

2.7 and 2.4 WAR could either be seen as too optimistic or pessimistic, depending on what you believe about Kazmir. I'm also assuming Kazmir's $13.5M club option does not get picked up. Overall, I think I'm being more than fair; for two straight seasons Kaz has been trending in the wrong direction. His strikeouts have gone down, he's allowing more homers and more contact. Kazmir's tRA's the last three seasons have been 3.32, 4.78 and 5.01. There's also the issue of how many innings Kazmir can give the Angels. He's topped 200 innings only once one what's going on a six-year career, and is probably won't throw more than 150 innings this season. That said, he has gotten better as of late.  If you think I'm off, then just adjust the math in your head.

The trade does little to hurt the Rays dwindling chances this year as it is. The Rays probably can manage with a four-man rotation the rest of the season. To take Kazmir's place next year, the Rays' have their pick from top prospects Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson; either of which could conceivably pitch as well as Kazmir for the next two seasons, and for the league minimum at that.

The Rays get: 

• Sean Rodriguez, 24, who has posted some some gaudy numbers for Triple-A Salt Lake -  29 homers and .299/.398/.616 line.  Rodriguez is average as a second baseman but could play all over the diamond. He's already played 71 big league games, and didn't qualify for John Sickels Top 20's last year, but was given a B grade the year before. I'd say his surplus value is about $5M.
• Alex Torres, 21, is an undersized lefty pitcher that gets ground outs and strikeouts at a good clip. Sickels gave him a C+ grade last year, giving him a surplus value of $2 mil. Maybe he gets bumped to a B this year, but for now I think C is fair enough.
• Matt Sweeney, 21, is a big third baseman with decent walk and strikeout rates. He missed all of last year with a knee injury, but is hitting .299/.379/.517 in the hitter friendly Cal League.  He didn't make Sickels list last year, he's probably in line for a C grade, giving him a surplus value of $700K.

The Rays free themselves of some much needed payroll and got about the maximum return possible. If Kazmir returns to form, then it'll look good for both sides. I tend to believe that vintage Kazmir won't be coming back, which is why this is quite the coup for the Rays.

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I love the headline from Deadspin: Cliff Lee wins the Roy Halladay Sweepstakes. The Indians accepted the same prospects the Blue Jays rejected for Roy Halladay, the the Phillies get probably the next best thing to getting the good Doc himself.

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I've been busier and more ubiquitous than a colony of ants today, watching this trade go down. After many whispers, the deal is done: The Cardinals have officially traded prospects 3B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson and RHP Clayton Mortensen to the A's for Matt Holliday.

The Prospects:

• Brett Wallace was considered to be the top hitter of the 2008 draft and is already up and hitting in Triple-A. He's not a great organizational fit for St. Louis as he's more of a first baseman than a third baseman due to some limited range. Baseball America ranked him the 21st best prospect in baseball mid-season. He's a shoo-in to at least make their top 50, meaning he has a surplus value in the $22-$25 million range according to Victor Wang's research on the "hidden value of prospects". (See this post for more explanation on how that works).
  
• Shane Peterson is a 2nd round pick from the '08 draft and a "C" grade prospect, as ranked by John Sickels. As someone who closely follows the Cardinals farm system, I agree with that grade.  He's hit well in High-A and Double-A this season with a cumulative line of .295/.361/.423, but some scouts call him a tweener. His bat profiles well in center field, but he's defensively limited. As a 22-year old C hitter, his surplus value is $700K.
  
• Clayton Mortensen was supplemental 1st-round pick in the 2007 draft and was considered to be the top starting pitching prospect on the Cardinals. He's had a brief cup of coffee so far in the Show, and has a 4.18 tRA for Triple-A Memphis. He's a sinker-baller who has a ceiling of a #3 starter, but is more likely a #4-5. Sickels gave him a C grade, but I could see him getting bumped up to a B. Let's meet in the middle and give him a suplus value of $5 million.
  

The Big Leaguer:  Not quite what he was in Colorado, ZiPS projects Matt Holliday to hit a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. His UZR/150 over his career is +7. He should be worth about 2 extra wins to the Cardinals and add about 15% to the Cardinals chances of making the playoffs according to our own vivaelpujols and his playoff odds. He's due $6 million in salary, and the A's are kicking in an extra $1.5 mil in the deal. Holliday is also a Type A free agent at seasons' end, according to Victor Wang, that's worth an extra $5M. So.....

The Not-So-Final Analysis: Matt Holliday's value to the Cardinals is worth a total of like $13.5 million when you figure his salary ($6M), wins added ($9M), draft pick compensation ($5M), cash from OAK (1.5) and increased playoff odds ($4M). The A's get a top 50 hitter, a B grade pitcher and a 22-year old C grade hitter, which totals around $28 million. Oakland comes out way ahead here. For St. Louis, this is one heck of an expensive 2-month rental.

Just when folks think Beane has lost his touch, he goes back to the team he stole Dan Haren from, which resulted in more trades. It's a vicious cycle for Cardinal fans, who may be watching history repeat itself. The trade only looks good for Cardinal fans if it results in a flag, but as I said earlier, that's no slam dunk.  If they can extend Holliday to an a decent deal, then it looks better, but with Scott Boras, that also is no slam dunk. Lots of wild cards for the Cardinals. Beane looks to have raided St. Louis again.

Wins Above Replacement numbers from Rally's Wonderful updated WAR Index. The seasons are sorted from best to worst, left to right. I could have went on and on, including Spahn, Seaver, Feller, Mathewson, etc. Turns out that Cy Young guy does deserve to have an award named after him.

Canadians are always dreaming up a lotta ways to ruin our lives. The metric system, for the love of Pete! Celsius! Neil Young!

-Quote from the movie Canadian Bacon

In case you didn't know, today is Canada Day. Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun has his annual All-Canadian Team, which he fondly concludes "ought to be able to beat Italy". I thought it would be fun mess with Sky's WAR Spreadsheet and find out how well an All Canadian roster would do if they were a major league team.

The coolest part to me about this team is that its closer is R.J. Swindle, BtB heartthrob. Getting down to business, an All-Canuck roster would should win 85 games. I think they definitely have Italy beat.

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When Willy Taveras signed a 2-year, $6.25 million deal, it seemed reasonable enough. After all, he couldn't be worse than Corey Patterson, right?

His projections called for something like .8 WAR, and if he could hit like he did in 2007 -- when he posted a .344 wOBA -- and play defense like he did in Houston -- when he was put up a shiny UZR of 27.8 over two seasons -- then you got one heck of a bargain. Granted, that probably wasn't going to happen in Jocketty's wildest fantasies, but $6.25 million for 1.5 WAR is about market rate.

Instead of the fantastic or even the realistic happening, Taveras has royally sucked. His defense has slightly above average. The big problem is he has a .262 wOBA, and yet somehow continues to have his named penned at the top of Dusty Baker's lineup card night after night. Leave it to Dusty prefer a languishing veteran over a younger, more talented player in the minors, and the Reds have two players who could easily top Taveres' "production" right now in Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.

Drew Stubbs, the Reds' 1st round pick in 2006, is everything Red fans wish Willy T. was. He steals bases, in fact he's leading the International League in swipes with 25, and has only been caught four times. Unlike Willy, Stubbs knows how to get on base, he's walking 12.6% of his plate appearances and has a .382 OBP. He's also an elite defender, by the scouting reports and by the numbers -- his Total Zone in the minors is +39 since 2006. Stubbs may not have a ton of homerun power, but the potential is there for above-average power, and it's not hard to out-homer Willy Taveras. There's just no logical reason Stubbs should be in the minors right now.

Even if the Reds felt they needed to give Stubbs a little more seasoning in AAA, they also have another center field prospect in AA, who is absolutely crushing the Southern League to the tune of a .468 wOBA in Chris Heisey. Heisey was drafted 16 rounds later than Stubbs out of a small college, and doesn't have the pure tools that Stubbs has, but he's steadily produced at each level before really going off this year. Between this season and the last he has stolen 42 bases and has been caught just twice, and over his minor league career he's been worth +66 runs with his glove, and has played all three outfield positions. Like Stubbs, he's not a masher, but he controls the bat well and takes his fair share of walks, over 11% the past two seasons.

Either of these two players represent a pretty significant upgrade over Corey Patterson Part 2, and I'm sure Reds fans are eager to see either of them get the call. The only problem is they have a manager who believes a player peaks when he is in his late thirties, so they may have to put up with a little more Willy then they'd wish.

It's a prospect-nik's favorite time of year, as the draft is upon us. Just one more day and there will be no more mock drafts and no more rumors. Just the draft and a bunch of knee-jerk reactions.

We determined in our draft study that college hitters, on average as a group, are slightly more productive than high school hitters, and are far more productive than college or high school pitchers, or at least they were during the 1990's. Other studies show that college hitters hold the same advantage in the supplemental and second round before that upper hand evaporates in the third round. 1st to 3rd rounders is who we will be looking at.

Please note that the information offered below is intended to be instructive rather than conclusive. The usual caveats with college statistics apply, but I did take a couple of steps to even things out, like adjusting for park and strength of schedule. I used gross production average, an easy to interpret version of OPS, to measure production at the plate. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, and then divided by the square root of the Park Factor times the Strength of Schedule.  For more context, I'll refer you to this post at Phuture Phillies to eyeball the different league averages for conferences, but the data is from a year ago, so I'm not sure how much it rings true to this year, but it's better than nothing.

While stats inform us about the past, they seldom tell the whole story when it comes to projecting how collegiate baseball talent will perform at the next level. We ought to soak up all the info we can from scouting reports, which rate players for their "five tools" (ability to hit for average and power, speed, fielding, and throwing arm), as well as makeup and other intangibles. There's also a "6th tool", if you will, and that is controlling the strike zone. To help with that, I listed out the batter's strikeout and walk per plate appearance percentages, but those numbers also do not tell us the whole story. Again, that's where scouting reports come in.

To drive the nail home that big college numbers don't always equal big league success, feel free to peruse some of Boyd's Adjusted OPS leader boards from years gone by.  There's some interesting names on there, ranging from Ryan Braun to John McCurdy.

Alright, enough caveats, let's look at some numbers and talk about some of the top hitting talent in this draft.

Scouting snippets on the each of these players after the jump.

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Last year we saw several college closers taken in the first round of the draft, including Daniel Schlereth, who recently made his debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks. When a team drafts a college closer, it is usually with the intent on fast-tracking to the big leagues. Drew Storen is someone who could very easily follow down Schlereth's path. Several mock drafts have Storen being taken toward the end of the first round and there is a rumor he could go as high as 10th overall to Washingto.  He could possibly help a big league bullpen as soon as this year. In 42.2 innings as the Stanford closer, Storen has 66 strikeouts to just 8 walks, showing an excellent combination of stuff and command.

You can see some video and read a scouting report on Storen here. He was nice enough to answer some of my questions over email as he's getting ready for draft day.

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