We've hit that (not so) fun time of the year when the weather starts to get really cold and the Hall of Fame debates start to heat up. These are some of the new guys on this year's ballot, some of these players are solid choices, others...not so much. Take heart Crime Dog, Jim Rice set a whole new standard! 12 years from now, you too could be Cooperstown bound.

My inclination was that Alomar would have been the best candidate out of the five but as it turns out, I was wrong. Larkin will probably get overlooked initially no thanks to injuries; hopefully he gets more support than Alan Trammell has received in the past. Both are worthy, in my opinion.

As for Edgar Martinez, I thought that whole non-position positional adjustment would have really hurt, but he has a solid case for the Hall, DH and all. If relief pitchers can get elected, why not Gar?

Finally, since we're nearing Festivus, I would like to air a grievance that has been aired by many a Tiger fan. Lou Whitaker has more career WAR (70) than any of these players, and yet was bounced in his first year of eligibility. Where's the flippin' justice, man?!?!

Thanks to Justin for the template for this graph, and Rally for his WAR database.

This year’s NL Cy Young vote was one of the closest in history, but 1987’s vote was the closest ever. Let’s take a quick retrospective.

Steve Bedrosian? Whiff!

Let's consult Rally's Historical WAR Database to find the "shoulda been" winner.

It turns out Orel Hershiser was the guy, but he had 16 losses, which is of course is anathema. His teammate Bob Welch was equally as good, and yet received only one lowsy 3rd place vote. He checked in with just 15 wins. Good performance but wrong era, guys.

Nolan Ryan was as good as Rick Sutcliffe, but despite 270 strikeouts, Ryan obviously didn't know how to win. Pssshh.

For all the holy outrage against certain newbies who are now voting BBWAA, just take a gander at 1987's results. People have done a lot crazier things with their ballots.

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

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The Kazmir deal has been completed today, with Sean Rodriguez heading to Tampa Bay. By my count, this makes three solid prospects for a player who you could make the argument has little to no surplus value, making this a potential steal for Tampa Bay. Using Sky's Trade Value Calculator, here's my hunch for Kazmir.

2.7 and 2.4 WAR could either be seen as too optimistic or pessimistic, depending on what you believe about Kazmir. I'm also assuming Kazmir's $13.5M club option does not get picked up. Overall, I think I'm being more than fair; for two straight seasons Kaz has been trending in the wrong direction. His strikeouts have gone down, he's allowing more homers and more contact. Kazmir's tRA's the last three seasons have been 3.32, 4.78 and 5.01. There's also the issue of how many innings Kazmir can give the Angels. He's topped 200 innings only once one what's going on a six-year career, and is probably won't throw more than 150 innings this season. That said, he has gotten better as of late.  If you think I'm off, then just adjust the math in your head.

The trade does little to hurt the Rays dwindling chances this year as it is. The Rays probably can manage with a four-man rotation the rest of the season. To take Kazmir's place next year, the Rays' have their pick from top prospects Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson; either of which could conceivably pitch as well as Kazmir for the next two seasons, and for the league minimum at that.

The Rays get: 

• Sean Rodriguez, 24, who has posted some some gaudy numbers for Triple-A Salt Lake -  29 homers and .299/.398/.616 line.  Rodriguez is average as a second baseman but could play all over the diamond. He's already played 71 big league games, and didn't qualify for John Sickels Top 20's last year, but was given a B grade the year before. I'd say his surplus value is about $5M.
• Alex Torres, 21, is an undersized lefty pitcher that gets ground outs and strikeouts at a good clip. Sickels gave him a C+ grade last year, giving him a surplus value of $2 mil. Maybe he gets bumped to a B this year, but for now I think C is fair enough.
• Matt Sweeney, 21, is a big third baseman with decent walk and strikeout rates. He missed all of last year with a knee injury, but is hitting .299/.379/.517 in the hitter friendly Cal League.  He didn't make Sickels list last year, he's probably in line for a C grade, giving him a surplus value of $700K.

The Rays free themselves of some much needed payroll and got about the maximum return possible. If Kazmir returns to form, then it'll look good for both sides. I tend to believe that vintage Kazmir won't be coming back, which is why this is quite the coup for the Rays.

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More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

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I love the headline from Deadspin: Cliff Lee wins the Roy Halladay Sweepstakes. The Indians accepted the same prospects the Blue Jays rejected for Roy Halladay, the the Phillies get probably the next best thing to getting the good Doc himself.

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More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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I've been busier and more ubiquitous than a colony of ants today, watching this trade go down. After many whispers, the deal is done: The Cardinals have officially traded prospects 3B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson and RHP Clayton Mortensen to the A's for Matt Holliday.

The Prospects:

• Brett Wallace was considered to be the top hitter of the 2008 draft and is already up and hitting in Triple-A. He's not a great organizational fit for St. Louis as he's more of a first baseman than a third baseman due to some limited range. Baseball America ranked him the 21st best prospect in baseball mid-season. He's a shoo-in to at least make their top 50, meaning he has a surplus value in the $22-$25 million range according to Victor Wang's research on the "hidden value of prospects". (See this post for more explanation on how that works).
  
• Shane Peterson is a 2nd round pick from the '08 draft and a "C" grade prospect, as ranked by John Sickels. As someone who closely follows the Cardinals farm system, I agree with that grade.  He's hit well in High-A and Double-A this season with a cumulative line of .295/.361/.423, but some scouts call him a tweener. His bat profiles well in center field, but he's defensively limited. As a 22-year old C hitter, his surplus value is $700K.
  
• Clayton Mortensen was supplemental 1st-round pick in the 2007 draft and was considered to be the top starting pitching prospect on the Cardinals. He's had a brief cup of coffee so far in the Show, and has a 4.18 tRA for Triple-A Memphis. He's a sinker-baller who has a ceiling of a #3 starter, but is more likely a #4-5. Sickels gave him a C grade, but I could see him getting bumped up to a B. Let's meet in the middle and give him a suplus value of $5 million.
  

The Big Leaguer:  Not quite what he was in Colorado, ZiPS projects Matt Holliday to hit a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. His UZR/150 over his career is +7. He should be worth about 2 extra wins to the Cardinals and add about 15% to the Cardinals chances of making the playoffs according to our own vivaelpujols and his playoff odds. He's due $6 million in salary, and the A's are kicking in an extra $1.5 mil in the deal. Holliday is also a Type A free agent at seasons' end, according to Victor Wang, that's worth an extra $5M. So.....

The Not-So-Final Analysis: Matt Holliday's value to the Cardinals is worth a total of like $13.5 million when you figure his salary ($6M), wins added ($9M), draft pick compensation ($5M), cash from OAK (1.5) and increased playoff odds ($4M). The A's get a top 50 hitter, a B grade pitcher and a 22-year old C grade hitter, which totals around $28 million. Oakland comes out way ahead here. For St. Louis, this is one heck of an expensive 2-month rental.

Just when folks think Beane has lost his touch, he goes back to the team he stole Dan Haren from, which resulted in more trades. It's a vicious cycle for Cardinal fans, who may be watching history repeat itself. The trade only looks good for Cardinal fans if it results in a flag, but as I said earlier, that's no slam dunk.  If they can extend Holliday to an a decent deal, then it looks better, but with Scott Boras, that also is no slam dunk. Lots of wild cards for the Cardinals. Beane looks to have raided St. Louis again.

Wins Above Replacement numbers from Rally's Wonderful updated WAR Index. The seasons are sorted from best to worst, left to right. I could have went on and on, including Spahn, Seaver, Feller, Mathewson, etc. Turns out that Cy Young guy does deserve to have an award named after him.