SB Nation User Blog: erik

Angels Complete Kazmir Trade

erik — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:44:50 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

The Kazmir deal has been completed today, with Sean Rodriguez heading to Tampa Bay. By my count, this makes three solid prospects for a player who you could make the argument has little to no surplus value, making this a potential steal for Tampa Bay. Using Sky's Trade Value Calculator, here's my hunch for Kazmir.

Scott Kazmir

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2009	$2.2	0.5	$2.4	$0.2
2010	$8.0	2.7	$12.3	$4.3
2011	$14.5	2.4	$11.0	-$3.5
2012
FA Picks			$2.5
Total	$24.7	5.6	$28.1	$3.4

2.7 and 2.4 WAR could either be seen as too optimistic or pessimistic, depending on what you believe about Kazmir. I'm also assuming Kazmir's $13.5M club option does not get picked up. Overall, I think I'm being more than fair; for two straight seasons Kaz has been trending in the wrong direction. His strikeouts have gone down, he's allowing more homers and more contact. Kazmir's tRA's the last three seasons have been 3.32, 4.78 and 5.01. There's also the issue of how many innings Kazmir can give the Angels. He's topped 200 innings only once one what's going on a six-year career, and is probably won't throw more than 150 innings this season. That said, he has gotten better as of late. If you think I'm off, then just adjust the math in your head.

The trade does little to hurt the Rays dwindling chances this year as it is. The Rays probably can manage with a four-man rotation the rest of the season. To take Kazmir's place next year, the Rays' have their pick from top prospects Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson; either of which could conceivably pitch as well as Kazmir for the next two seasons, and for the league minimum at that.

The Rays get:

Sean Rodriguez, 24, who has posted some some gaudy numbers for Triple-A Salt Lake - 29 homers and .299/.398/.616 line. Rodriguez is average as a second baseman but could play all over the diamond. He's already played 71 big league games, and didn't qualify for John Sickels Top 20's last year, but was given a B grade the year before. I'd say his surplus value is about $5M.
Alex Torres, 21, is an undersized lefty pitcher that gets ground outs and strikeouts at a good clip. Sickels gave him a C+ grade last year, giving him a surplus value of $2 mil. Maybe he gets bumped to a B this year, but for now I think C is fair enough.
Matt Sweeney, 21, is a big third baseman with decent walk and strikeout rates. He missed all of last year with a knee injury, but is hitting .299/.379/.517 in the hitter friendly Cal League. He didn't make Sickels list last year, he's probably in line for a C grade, giving him a surplus value of $700K.

The Rays free themselves of some much needed payroll and got about the maximum return possible. If Kazmir returns to form, then it'll look good for both sides. I tend to believe that vintage Kazmir won't be coming back, which is why this is quite the coup for the Rays.

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Cliff Lee Headed to Philly

erik — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:46:38 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

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I love the headline from Deadspin: Cliff Lee wins the Roy Halladay Sweepstakes. The Indians accepted the same prospects the Blue Jays rejected for Roy Halladay, the the Phillies get probably the next best thing to getting the good Doc himself.

The Big Leaguer

Using Sky's handy-dandy trade value calculator, here's what we get for Cliff Lee's trade value:

According to Cot's Contracts, Lee is making $5.75 million this season, $8 million the following season. Two wins for the rest of the season sounds about right. As for next season, maybe 5.5 is high but he was worth 7.3 WAR last season and is well on his way to being worth 6 WAR this season.

Bottom line: You won't find many bargains better than Cliff Lee.

The Prospects: The Tribe get a solid surplus of prospects in return, RHPs Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson and "SS" Jason Donald. Before we delve into the prospects, here for the zillionth time is Victor Wang's surplus values for prospects all nicely charted out. I think it bears repetition. (Explained more here.)

Top 10 hitting prospects	$32.5M
Top 11-25 hitters	$22.3
Top 26-50 hitters	$20.8
Top 51-75 hitters	$12.6
Top 76-100 hitters	$11.1
Top 10 pitching prospects	$14.2
Top 11-25 pitchers	$14.2
Top 26-50 pitchers	$14.2
Top 51-75 pitchers	$10.8
Top 76-100 pitchers	$8.7
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)	$6.5
Grade B hitters	$4.9
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger	$1.9
Grade C pitchers 23 or older	$1.3
Grade C hitters 22 or younger	$0.62
Grade C hitters 23 or older	$0.45

Knapp was given a B grade by John Sickels headed into the season, but has vaulted himself into BA's Mid-Season Top 50. He's just 18 year old and his ceiling is high, but he's far from reaching it. He throws in the mid to high nineties and oozes projection. He's currently on the DL with shoulder fatigue, but that was seen as more of a precautionary measure to keep innings off his arm. Let's just call his surplus value $11M.
Lou Marson is currently in Triple-A, putting up his typical .295/.384/.367 line. He doesn't have a lot of power but takes his walks and hits for average. Marson is a top 51-75 hitter, worth $12.6M.
Jason Donald is listed as a shortstop, but Total Zone had him at -19 at the position last year. He's 25 and hasn't been hitting this season, but last year he posted a .305/.388/.501 line. He was a top 100 prospect last year, but let's drop him to a B grade range due to his recent struggles and lack of position. $5M.
Carlos Carrasco also was in the 51-75 range, worth $10.8M. He's had somewhat of an up and down year, but he's only 22 and has a 4.01 FIP in Triple-A. He has a 91-94 MPH fastball and a nice change-up, but lacks some polish and is still searching for a breaking pitch. He's switched from throwing a curve to a slider this year.

It's hard not to like this deal from a Philly fan's perspective, because they didn't have to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor, their best prospects. Yep, their farm system was that loaded. The Phillies just basically punched their ticket to October (if it wasn't already) and made their team stronger for next year. Oh, and they get a half decent 4th OF in Ben Francisco. The Indians get four solid prospects with decent upside -- no sky high ceiling players other than possibly Knapp who is years away --but players who have the potential to be solid to above average regulars.

So now what does J.P. Ricciardi do?

Matt Holliday to St. Louis

erik — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:17:31 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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I've been busier and more ubiquitous than a colony of ants today, watching this trade go down. After many whispers, the deal is done: The Cardinals have officially traded prospects 3B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson and RHP Clayton Mortensen to the A's for Matt Holliday.

The Prospects:

Brett Wallace was considered to be the top hitter of the 2008 draft and is already up and hitting in Triple-A. He's not a great organizational fit for St. Louis as he's more of a first baseman than a third baseman due to some limited range. Baseball America ranked him the 21st best prospect in baseball mid-season. He's a shoo-in to at least make their top 50, meaning he has a surplus value in the $22-$25 million range according to Victor Wang's research on the "hidden value of prospects". (See this post for more explanation on how that works).
Shane Peterson is a 2nd round pick from the '08 draft and a "C" grade prospect, as ranked by John Sickels. As someone who closely follows the Cardinals farm system, I agree with that grade. He's hit well in High-A and Double-A this season with a cumulative line of .295/.361/.423, but some scouts call him a tweener. His bat profiles well in center field, but he's defensively limited. As a 22-year old C hitter, his surplus value is $700K.
Clayton Mortensen was supplemental 1st-round pick in the 2007 draft and was considered to be the top starting pitching prospect on the Cardinals. He's had a brief cup of coffee so far in the Show, and has a 4.18 tRA for Triple-A Memphis. He's a sinker-baller who has a ceiling of a #3 starter, but is more likely a #4-5. Sickels gave him a C grade, but I could see him getting bumped up to a B. Let's meet in the middle and give him a suplus value of $5 million.

The Big Leaguer: Not quite what he was in Colorado, ZiPS projects Matt Holliday to hit a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. His UZR/150 over his career is +7. He should be worth about 2 extra wins to the Cardinals and add about 15% to the Cardinals chances of making the playoffs according to our own vivaelpujols and his playoff odds. He's due $6 million in salary, and the A's are kicking in an extra $1.5 mil in the deal. Holliday is also a Type A free agent at seasons' end, according to Victor Wang, that's worth an extra $5M. So.....

The Not-So-Final Analysis: Matt Holliday's value to the Cardinals is worth a total of like $13.5 million when you figure his salary ($6M), wins added ($9M), draft pick compensation ($5M), cash from OAK (1.5) and increased playoff odds ($4M). The A's get a top 50 hitter, a B grade pitcher and a 22-year old C grade hitter, which totals around $28 million. Oakland comes out way ahead here. For St. Louis, this is one heck of an expensive 2-month rental.

Just when folks think Beane has lost his touch, he goes back to the team he stole Dan Haren from, which resulted in more trades. It's a vicious cycle for Cardinal fans, who may be watching history repeat itself. The trade only looks good for Cardinal fans if it results in a flag, but as I said earlier, that's no slam dunk. If they can extend Holliday to an a decent deal, then it looks better, but with Scott Boras, that also is no slam dunk. Lots of wild cards for the Cardinals. Beane looks to have raided St. Louis again.

Inspired by a reader with a really long user name at Over the Monster, Thought I'd compile the WAR...

erik — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 21:03:43 -0000

Inspired by a reader with a really long user name at Over the Monster, Thought I'd compile the WAR data for players who have their jersey numbers retired. These numbers are only for seasons in which they played for the Cardinals, in case you were wondering why some look funnier than others. WAR data via Chone Smith's awesome site of wonderful joyness and wonder.

It'll be interested on day to stack up The Man with El Hombre.

Graph of the Day: Cy, Walter, Roger, Grover Cleveland, Lefty

erik — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 20:12:05 -0000

Wins Above Replacement numbers from Rally's Wonderful updated WAR Index. The seasons are sorted from best to worst, left to right. I could have went on and on, including Spahn, Seaver, Feller, Mathewson, etc. Turns out that Cy Young guy does deserve to have an award named after him.

The All-Canuck Team

erik — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:48:20 -0000

Canadians are always dreaming up a lotta ways to ruin our lives. The metric system, for the love of Pete! Celsius! Neil Young!

-Quote from the movie Canadian Bacon

In case you didn't know, today is Canada Day. Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun has his annual All-Canadian Team, which he fondly concludes "ought to be able to beat Italy". I thought it would be fun mess with Sky's WAR Spreadsheet and find out how well an All Canadian roster would do if they were a major league team.

The coolest part to me about this team is that its closer is R.J. Swindle, BtB heartthrob. Getting down to business, an All-Canuck roster would should win 85 games. I think they definitely have Italy beat.

Quick methodology explanation: I used the ZiPS updated projections for all the hitters that were available, as well as the UZR/150 numbers for their fielding. For the minor leaguers without projections, I used current MLE's in lieu of ZiPS. For pitchers, I used FIP rather than projected ERA, and again went to MLE's if there was no projection data available.

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;nbsp;

[More fudging on my part: Outside of accounting for the good base-running of Martin and the slowness of Matt Stairs...sorry, Sky. Francis is off the team, because of injuries. Maybe maybe my estimates for plate appearances isn't that great. I also threw in replacement players, whose ERA's are higher than usual replacement players because you might have to scour the lower minors or maybe even the independent leagues to find Canadian pitchers. Get over it, it's Canada Day for crying out loud.]

That is a rather awesome lineup with Russell Martin, Jason Bay, Joey Votto and Justin Morneau at the top. A Thorman/Stairs platoon could put up some good offensive numbers, but at the expense of some defense. Michael Saunders is one of those players I'm rooting for be "freed". The 9th spot of the lineup is a glaring weakness --- Cale Iorg was the best option they could find for a SS, who is 24 years old and has a .280 wOBA in AA. I was half-tempted to put Stubby Clapp on the roster in his place. 2B Brett Lawrie and OF Nick Weglarz are like the Futures Game roster, but they got squeezed off, although Elliot has Weglarz on his team.

The rotation could be pretty sick if everyone could stay healthy, the problem is that Canadian pitchers just seem to be injury prone. Rich Harden and Erik Bedard are two potential aces, but again, injury prone. Blake Hawksworth and Hill are OK options at the back of the rotation, but again, injuries. And then you have Jeff Francis.

The bullpen is pretty rough, although Phillippe Aumont could be really, really good. He's just 20, Harry has looked at him before. To the frustration of Mariners fans, Aumont was moved to the bullpen to be fast-tracked to the big leagues.

This team is a few pieces away from pretend-contending, but the Canadians have nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to baseball players. They could be ashamed of Mike Myers for The Love Guru, but not for their homegrown players.

Free Willy, as in cut his butt loose

erik — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:13:58 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

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When Willy Taveras signed a 2-year, $6.25 million deal, it seemed reasonable enough. After all, he couldn't be worse than Corey Patterson, right?

His projections called for something like .8 WAR, and if he could hit like he did in 2007 -- when he posted a .344 wOBA -- and play defense like he did in Houston -- when he was put up a shiny UZR of 27.8 over two seasons -- then you got one heck of a bargain. Granted, that probably wasn't going to happen in Jocketty's wildest fantasies, but $6.25 million for 1.5 WAR is about market rate.

Instead of the fantastic or even the realistic happening, Taveras has royally sucked. His defense has slightly above average. The big problem is he has a .262 wOBA, and yet somehow continues to have his named penned at the top of Dusty Baker's lineup card night after night. Leave it to Dusty prefer a languishing veteran over a younger, more talented player in the minors, and the Reds have two players who could easily top Taveres' "production" right now in Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.

Drew Stubbs, the Reds' 1st round pick in 2006, is everything Red fans wish Willy T. was. He steals bases, in fact he's leading the International League in swipes with 25, and has only been caught four times. Unlike Willy, Stubbs knows how to get on base, he's walking 12.6% of his plate appearances and has a .382 OBP. He's also an elite defender, by the scouting reports and by the numbers -- his Total Zone in the minors is +39 since 2006. Stubbs may not have a ton of homerun power, but the potential is there for above-average power, and it's not hard to out-homer Willy Taveras. There's just no logical reason Stubbs should be in the minors right now.

Even if the Reds felt they needed to give Stubbs a little more seasoning in AAA, they also have another center field prospect in AA, who is absolutely crushing the Southern League to the tune of a .468 wOBA in Chris Heisey. Heisey was drafted 16 rounds later than Stubbs out of a small college, and doesn't have the pure tools that Stubbs has, but he's steadily produced at each level before really going off this year. Between this season and the last he has stolen 42 bases and has been caught just twice, and over his minor league career he's been worth +66 runs with his glove, and has played all three outfield positions. Like Stubbs, he's not a masher, but he controls the bat well and takes his fair share of walks, over 11% the past two seasons.

Either of these two players represent a pretty significant upgrade over Corey Patterson Part 2, and I'm sure Reds fans are eager to see either of them get the call. The only problem is they have a manager who believes a player peaks when he is in his late thirties, so they may have to put up with a little more Willy then they'd wish.

Scouting Shelby Miller

erik — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 06:38:26 -0000

Scouting Shelby Miller

A nice scouting breakdown of the Cardinals' 1st rounder.

Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

erik — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:47:50 -0000

Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

Every person named Sky that I've known of is a sabermetrician. The non-BtB Sky finds the average career WAR by draft pick and expected WAR values by type of player. Sets up realistic expectations of the picks selected over several rounds of the draft.

Disecting Genius: examining Dave Duncan

erik — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:41:26 -0000

Disecting Genius: examining Dave Duncan

Doesn't prove the Dunc effect's existence, but doesn't disprove either. We as Cardinal fans all know Duncan could probably take Oil Can Boyd and turn him into a reasonable 4th starter.