SB Nation User Blog: erik

The All-Canuck Team

erik — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:48:20 -0000

Canadians are always dreaming up a lotta ways to ruin our lives. The metric system, for the love of Pete! Celsius! Neil Young!

-Quote from the movie Canadian Bacon

In case you didn't know, today is Canada Day. Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun has his annual All-Canadian Team, which he fondly concludes "ought to be able to beat Italy". I thought it would be fun mess with Sky's WAR Spreadsheet and find out how well an All Canadian roster would do if they were a major league team.

The coolest part to me about this team is that its closer is R.J. Swindle, BtB heartthrob. Getting down to business, an All-Canuck roster would should win 85 games. I think they definitely have Italy beat.

Quick methodology explanation: I used the ZiPS updated projections for all the hitters that were available, as well as the UZR/150 numbers for their fielding. For the minor leaguers without projections, I used current MLE's in lieu of ZiPS. For pitchers, I used FIP rather than projected ERA, and again went to MLE's if there was no projection data available.

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[More fudging on my part: Outside of accounting for the good base-running of Martin and the slowness of Matt Stairs...sorry, Sky. Francis is off the team, because of injuries. Maybe maybe my estimates for plate appearances isn't that great. I also threw in replacement players, whose ERA's are higher than usual replacement players because you might have to scour the lower minors or maybe even the independent leagues to find Canadian pitchers. Get over it, it's Canada Day for crying out loud.]

That is a rather awesome lineup with Russell Martin, Jason Bay, Joey Votto and Justin Morneau at the top. A Thorman/Stairs platoon could put up some good offensive numbers, but at the expense of some defense. Michael Saunders is one of those players I'm rooting for be "freed". The 9th spot of the lineup is a glaring weakness --- Cale Iorg was the best option they could find for a SS, who is 24 years old and has a .280 wOBA in AA. I was half-tempted to put Stubby Clapp on the roster in his place. 2B Brett Lawrie and OF Nick Weglarz are like the Futures Game roster, but they got squeezed off, although Elliot has Weglarz on his team.

The rotation could be pretty sick if everyone could stay healthy, the problem is that Canadian pitchers just seem to be injury prone. Rich Harden and Erik Bedard are two potential aces, but again, injury prone. Blake Hawksworth and Hill are OK options at the back of the rotation, but again, injuries. And then you have Jeff Francis.

The bullpen is pretty rough, although Phillippe Aumont could be really, really good. He's just 20, Harry has looked at him before. To the frustration of Mariners fans, Aumont was moved to the bullpen to be fast-tracked to the big leagues.

This team is a few pieces away from pretend-contending, but the Canadians have nothing to be ashamed of when it comes to baseball players. They could be ashamed of Mike Myers for The Love Guru, but not for their homegrown players.

Free Willy, as in cut his butt loose

erik — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:13:58 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Browse more photos »

When Willy Taveras signed a 2-year, $6.25 million deal, it seemed reasonable enough. After all, he couldn't be worse than Corey Patterson, right?

His projections called for something like .8 WAR, and if he could hit like he did in 2007 -- when he posted a .344 wOBA -- and play defense like he did in Houston -- when he was put up a shiny UZR of 27.8 over two seasons -- then you got one heck of a bargain. Granted, that probably wasn't going to happen in Jocketty's wildest fantasies, but $6.25 million for 1.5 WAR is about market rate.

Instead of the fantastic or even the realistic happening, Taveras has royally sucked. His defense has slightly above average. The big problem is he has a .262 wOBA, and yet somehow continues to have his named penned at the top of Dusty Baker's lineup card night after night. Leave it to Dusty prefer a languishing veteran over a younger, more talented player in the minors, and the Reds have two players who could easily top Taveres' "production" right now in Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.

Drew Stubbs, the Reds' 1st round pick in 2006, is everything Red fans wish Willy T. was. He steals bases, in fact he's leading the International League in swipes with 25, and has only been caught four times. Unlike Willy, Stubbs knows how to get on base, he's walking 12.6% of his plate appearances and has a .382 OBP. He's also an elite defender, by the scouting reports and by the numbers -- his Total Zone in the minors is +39 since 2006. Stubbs may not have a ton of homerun power, but the potential is there for above-average power, and it's not hard to out-homer Willy Taveras. There's just no logical reason Stubbs should be in the minors right now.

Even if the Reds felt they needed to give Stubbs a little more seasoning in AAA, they also have another center field prospect in AA, who is absolutely crushing the Southern League to the tune of a .468 wOBA in Chris Heisey. Heisey was drafted 16 rounds later than Stubbs out of a small college, and doesn't have the pure tools that Stubbs has, but he's steadily produced at each level before really going off this year. Between this season and the last he has stolen 42 bases and has been caught just twice, and over his minor league career he's been worth +66 runs with his glove, and has played all three outfield positions. Like Stubbs, he's not a masher, but he controls the bat well and takes his fair share of walks, over 11% the past two seasons.

Either of these two players represent a pretty significant upgrade over Corey Patterson Part 2, and I'm sure Reds fans are eager to see either of them get the call. The only problem is they have a manager who believes a player peaks when he is in his late thirties, so they may have to put up with a little more Willy then they'd wish.

Scouting Shelby Miller

erik — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 06:38:26 -0000

Scouting Shelby Miller

A nice scouting breakdown of the Cardinals' 1st rounder.

Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

erik — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:47:50 -0000

Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

Every person named Sky that I've known of is a sabermetrician. The non-BtB Sky finds the average career WAR by draft pick and expected WAR values by type of player. Sets up realistic expectations of the picks selected over several rounds of the draft.

Disecting Genius: examining Dave Duncan

erik — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:41:26 -0000

Disecting Genius: examining Dave Duncan

Doesn't prove the Dunc effect's existence, but doesn't disprove either. We as Cardinal fans all know Duncan could probably take Oil Can Boyd and turn him into a reasonable 4th starter.

Drafting Pitchers Early Is a Dangerous Game

erik — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:54:58 -0000

Drafting Pitchers Early Is a Dangerous Game

At the Wall St. Journal, Dave Cameron takes a quick look at why drafting pitchers in the first round is risky, and what teams have been better at drafting pitchers than others. He uses WAR as the determining stat.

The 2009 MLB Draft's College Hitters Crop

erik — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:30:50 -0000

It's a prospect-nik's favorite time of year, as the draft is upon us. Just one more day and there will be no more mock drafts and no more rumors. Just the draft and a bunch of knee-jerk reactions.

We determined in our draft study that college hitters, on average as a group, are slightly more productive than high school hitters, and are far more productive than college or high school pitchers, or at least they were during the 1990's. O ther studies show that college hitters hold the same advantage in the supplemental and second round before that upper hand evaporates in the third round. 1st to 3rd rounders is who we will be looking at.

Please note that the information offered below is intended to be instructive rather than conclusive. The usual caveats with college statistics apply, but I did take a couple of steps to even things out, like adjusting for park and strength of schedule. I used gross production average, an easy to interpret version of OPS, to measure production at the plate. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, and then divided by the square root of the Park Factor times the Strength of Schedule. For more context, I'll refer you to this post at Phuture Phillies to eyeball the different league averages for conferences, but the data is from a year ago, so I'm not sure how much it rings true to this year, but it's better than nothing.

While stats inform us about the past, they seldom tell the whole story when it comes to projecting how collegiate baseball talent will perform at the next level. We ought to soak up all the info we can from scouting reports, which rate players for their "five tools" (ability to hit for average and power, speed, fielding, and throwing arm), as well as makeup and other intangibles. There's also a "6th tool", if you will, and that is controlling the strike zone. To help with that, I listed out the batter's strikeout and walk per plate appearance percentages, but those numbers also do not tell us the whole story. Again, that's where scouting reports come in.

To drive the nail home that big college numbers don't always equal big league success, feel free to peruse some of Boyd's Adjusted OPS leader boards from years gone by. There's some interesting names on there, ranging from Ryan Braun to John McCurdy.

Alright, enough caveats, let's look at some numbers and talk about some of the top hitting talent in this draft.

Name	POS	School	Adj. GPA	BB%	K%	Expected Pick
Dustin Ackley	1B/CF	North Carolina	.431	16%	10%	Top 5
Grant Green	SS	USC	.344	8%	16%	Top 5-15
Tim Wheeler	CF	Sacramento St	.432	12%	11%	1st round
AJ Pollock	CF	Notre Dame	.356	11%	8%	1st round
Jared Mitchell	CF	LSU	.323	20%	23%	1st round
Tony Sanchez	C	Boston College	.357	11%	16%	1st round
Rich Poythress	1B	Georgia	.422	15%	14%	1st round
Brett Jackson	CF	California	.339	12%	24%	Supplemental
Kentrail Davis	CF	Tennessee	.337	13%	19%	Supplemental
Marc Krauss	OF/3B	Ohio	.443	18%	11%	3rd-4th round
Jason Kipnis	OF	Arizona State	.379	17%	11%	Supplemental-2nd
D.J. LeMahieu	2B	LSU	.275	10%	13%	2nd-3rd round
Josh Phegley	C	Indiana	.365	16%	13%	Supplemental-2nd
Ryan Jackson	SS	Miami (FL)	.244	14%	14%	3rd-4th round
Chris Dominguez	3B	Louisville	.370	11%	18%	3rd-4th round
Tommy Mendonca	3B	Fresno St.	.377	12%	23%	3rd-4th round
Matt den Dekker	CF	Florida	.280	12%	17%	2nd round
Kyle Seager	3B	North Carolina	.358	14%	12%	2nd round
Kent Matthes	OF	Alabama	.413	13%	18%	3rd-4th round
Angelo Songco	OF	Loyola Maramount	.389	15%	19%	2nd round

Scouting snippets on the each of these players after the jump.

Dustin Ackley is the best hitter of the draft, and it's not even close. He played mostly first base this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but should handle center field just fine. Scouts believe several batting titles are a distinct possibility for Ackley.
Grant Green drew some wild comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria last summer in the Cape Cod League, but had a less than stellar junior season. He got off to a very slow start before coming alive later in the spring. He has the lowest walk rate of any of these draft prospects and only hit 4 home runs all season. I've read mixed reviews on his defense. If he can't stick at short, his value really sinks.
Tim Wheeler hit 3 homers his sophomore season, 18 this past season. Couple that with a .500 OBP and you have one amazing season. His performance is on par with Ackley's, but his tools across the board are Lake Wobegonish.
Pollock is similar to Wheeler, but with better bat control but not the pop. Think Skip Schumaker, in fact there's the notion of moving him to second base, where his bat would play a lot better.
Jared Mitchell also played wide receiver for LSU and is the draft's best collegiate athlete by a country mile. He's longer on tools than he is on performance, and is seen as a high-risk, high-reward type of pick. Gotta like the walk rate.
Tony Sanchez could go 4th overall to the Pirates according to a couple of rumors out there, but he is more of a back of the first round type of talent. His defense is his best asset.
Rich Poythress is your prototypical slugging first baseman with power and patience.
If you see Kentrail Davis, he will remind you of a young Kirby Puckett. He's a draft eligible sophomore who could be a tough sign. With the type of performance he had, I think he'll go back to school.
Brett Jackson is an impressive athlete with several plus tools (arm, power, speed) and several holes in his swing. High risk, high reward.
Marc Krauss put up video game numbers, but it was on level "easy", as he faced a weak schedule in the Mid-American Conference. Even so, after adjusting for strength of schedule, his offensive numbers exceed any of the other top draft prospects. He also hit well in the Cape this past summer, posting a .473 OBP.
Jason Kipnis had a monster season, but is viewed as a possible tweener. He doesn't have the range or arm to stay in center field, and his bat doesn't profile as well in a corner spot, despite what the numbers say. There's a wild rumor the Indians will pick him 15th overall and move him to second base.
D.J. LeMahieu was believed to be a first rounder before the season began, but defensive struggles pushed him to 2B and offensive struggles might push him down to the 4th round. He's a sophomore who will likely take a mulligan and go back to LSU.
Josh Phegley can really rake for a catcher, but probably won't stay a catcher, which dings his value.
Ryan Jackson is the draft's best defensive shortstop and the NCAA's answer to Adam Everett.
Chris Dominguez is a Dave Kingman-like player, only with a rocket arm at the hot corner.
Tommy Mendonica is Chris Dominguez, sans the rocket. He's noted to have a fantastic glove at the hot corner.
Matt den Dekker's bat is a question mark, but he can run like the wind, is a heady base-stealer and can field his position extremely well.
Kyle Seager's upside is said to be Bill Mueller-esque.
Kent Matthes is a senior who put up a ridiculous .500 ISO for the Tide. His pitch recognition and plate discipline is questionable, but he showed improvement this year.
Angelo Songco is known for a quirky batting stance and a quick bat. His power is a plus, but he is vulnerable to breaking stuff.

From my study, if this draft class lives is merely average, just two of the players taken in the first round will live up to their billing. After the first round, even fewer are expected to succeed. But for the teams who makes the right picks, the payoffs will be huge. I love draft day.

Ross Ohlendorf : Sabermetrician

erik — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 18:22:56 -0000

Ross Ohlendorf : Sabermetrician

Ross Ohlendorf is a smart guy. First of all, he went to Princeton. Secondly, his major was in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. So what did he do his college thesis on? The draft. Be still, my heart. Here's a snippet --

The 126-page thesis is brilliantly written and so complex, only a mathematician would be able to completely comprehend its meaning. So Ohlendorf broke down his thesis in layman's terms. For each player, he estimated how much less the team paid the player in each of his pre-free agency years than it would have paid a comparable free agent. He gathered salary data for both the players in the study and for all free agents for the relevant years. He used Win Shares (a statistical formula used by Bill James) to determine each player's value.

"Many of the players in the study did not make the major leagues,'' Ohlendorf said. "However, many of those who did produced tremendous returns for the teams who drafted them. When looked at as a group, the internal rate of return on all the draft picks in the study was 60 percent. This is an extremely high rate of return. It is saying that if you invest $1, it will grow to $1.60 after a year and $2.56 after two years, and so on … I believe the stock market has had a historical rate of about seven or eight percent, prior to the last year. So even though many of the investments did not work out, the upside on those that did was so great, signing the high picks to large bonuses appears to have been a very smart investment.''

Ross, if you are out there, we'd love to have you as a guest writer at BtB!

Getting to know a draft prospect: Drew Storen

erik — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:54:56 -0000

Last year we saw several college closers taken in the first round of the draft, including Daniel Schlereth, who recently made his debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks. When a team drafts a college closer, it is usually with the intent on fast-tracking to the big leagues. Drew Storen is someone who could very easily follow down Schlereth's path. Several mock drafts have Storen being taken toward the end of the first round and there is a rumor he could go as high as 10th overall to Washingto. He could possibly help a big league bullpen as soon as this year. In 42.2 innings as the Stanford closer, Storen has 66 strikeouts to just 8 walks, showing an excellent combination of stuff and command.

You can see some video and read a scouting report on Storen here. He was nice enough to answer some of my questions over email as he's getting ready for draft day.

You’re obviously one of the top college pitchers eligible for the draft, and it’s been said you’re a lock to be a first round pick. Where will you be on draft day and who will you be watching with?

The plan as of now is to be with my family and friends in my hometown of Brownsburg, IN.

With most of the attention going to the starting pitchers, what do you feel like being a reliever in the draft?

I am in an interesting spot because most teams see me as a starter down the road. I like the position I am in because I can fit into whatever role a team would like me in.

How did stepping into a relief role come about? Were you initially for/against?

We had a great starting rotation at the beginning of my freshman season and we needed a guy out of the 'pen, so Coach Marquess asked me to do it. I was more than happy to. I love the high energy and high pressure that comes with closing.

How would you define a "closer’s mentality"?

It's pretty simple. You just have to try to minimize the game and win each pitch. You can't put weight into the situation at hand. You can't let the tight lead, runners on base, even the pitcher at the plate change your game plan. I like being an "offensive" pitcher who likes to attack guys and make them uncomfortable at the plate.

With three good pitches in your repertoire, I've read some teams view you as a potential starter. Would you like to be given a chance to start?

Absolutely, that is why I worked on my change up so much. I want to do whatever will allow me to help someone win on the big league level.

Some teams get concerned about the "signability" of a draft eligible sophomore. Being one yourself, would you consider going back to college if you don't get quite what you're looking for in a signing bonus?

Yeah, I see myself in a win-win situation, it would be great to start my pro career this year, but if I don't I get to go back to Stanford where I am very happy as well.

Have any teams taken a particular interest in you?

I have talked to quite a few teams, it's hard to narrow it down and say a certain have shown more interest than others.

I'm really curious as to what the recruitment process is like. Are there certain "tests" scouts want you to perform, and do you oblige all of them?

The only tests are personality tests, most teams have them, and I take them all, as time consuming as they may be.

Are there any pitchers that you really model yourself after?

I like the way Papelbon and K-Rod attack hitters out of the 'pen, so I try to carry that same approach. But I also love the professionalism that Mariano Rivera has when he rarely, if ever, shows emotion even after putting a clinic late in a game.

Do you put much stock in statistics and in-depth analysis?

Not at all, if I look at anything it is my K-BB ratio. I hate when I walk guys, I don't like giving free passes, I'd rather have someone earn it.

What's been the proudest moment of your career to this point?

Probably getting the two saves in the Fullerton Super Regional last year. It was a lot of fun being put in the high pressure situations on ESPN and helping launch us to Omaha.

Thanks to Drew for taking his time to chat, and best of luck to him in the draft.

Stephen Strasburg and those other guys

erik — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:24:35 -0000

Matt Wieters wears Stephen Strasburg pajamas to bed.

We've had some fun looking back at past drafts and their historical implications, now let's look at this upcoming draft class, starting with college pitchers. There's this guy named Stephen Strasburg that I hear is pretty good, and there will probably be a few other college pitchers to get drafted as well. Let's talk about it after the jump.

Rank	Name	School	IP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	ERA	FIP	FIP+
1	Stephen Strasburg	San Diego St	109	16.1	1.6	10.3	0.3	1.32	0.61	939
2	Kyle Gibson	Missouri	106.2	11.1	1.6	6.9	0.6	3.21	2.02	284
3	Alex White	North Carolina	89.2	9.7	3.8	2.6	0.9	4.42	3.86	149
4	Mike Leake	Arizona State	124.2	10.3	1.4	7.2	0.1	1.23	1.64	349
5	Rex Brothers*	Lipscomb	94	12.6	4.1	3.1	0.7	3.26	3.21	179
6	Eric Arnett	Indiana	108	9.1	3.25	2.8	0.3	2.50	3.10	185
7	Chad Jenkins	Kennesaw St.	92	9.6	1.5	6.5	0.3	2.54	2.17	264
8	Andy Oliver*	Oklahoma St	82	9.9	3.5	2.9	0.7	5.32	2.84	202
9	Kyle Heckathorn	Kennesaw St.	86.1	10.2	2.8	3.6	0.6	3.44	3.07	187
10	Mike Minor*	Vanderbilt	107	9.3	2.9	3.1	0.8	3.79	3.57	161
11	Drew Storen	Stanford	42.2	13.9	1.7	8.3	1.3	3.80	3.06	187
12	James Paxton*	Kentucky	78.1	13.2	2.3	5.75	1.3	5.86	2.63	218
13	Sam Dyson	South Carolina	102	8.29	3.3	2.5	1.6	5.21	5.27	109
14	Victor Black	Dallas Baptist	88.2	10.1	4.1	2.5	0.7	4.16	3.05	188
15	Matt Bashore*	Indiana	95	10.2	2.8	3.6	0.4	4.07	2.76	208
16	Alex Wilson	Texas A&M	89.2	12.1	2.5	4.8	0.4	4.22	1.79	320
17	Chris Dwyer	Clemson	73	9.2	3.6	2.6	1.2	5.30	4.21	136
18	Aaron Miller*	Baylor	51	11.5	4.6	2.5	1.6	5.13	3.45	166
19	A.J. Morris	Kansas St.	116.1	7.7	2.3	3.3	0.3	2.09	2.74	209
20	Jason Stoffel	Arizona	54	9.2	4.2	2.2	0.2	4.67	2.81	204
NR	Mark Serrano	Oral Roberts	86.1	13.8	2.6	5.3	0.6	2.50	2.11	272
83	Justin Marks*	Louisville	99.2	11.2	2.9	3.9	0.5	3.43	2.65	216
126	Jerry Sullivan*	Oral Roberts	98	10.7	2.5	4.3	0.5	3.12	2.57	223
188	Louis Coleman	Louisiana St	106	10.1	1.6	6.3	1.2	2.72	2.85	201
NR	Matt Way	Wash St	107.1	10.4	2.8	3.8	0.7	2.43	2.96	194
NR	Brian Moran	North Carolina	63	12.4	1.1	10.9	0.3	2.00	1.39	412

*denotes pitcher is left-handed.

You thought I was going to throw out a bunch of scouting reports at you, didn't you? We'll get into some of that. This is Baseball America's top 20 college pitchers, and also some other dudes thrown in there for good measure. The players in the top 20 are expected to go anywhere from the top ten of the first round to somewhere in the 2nd round or perhaps even a bit further down.

The pitchers' FIP numbers have been adjusted for park and strength of schedule. I'm not here to tell you what sort of predictive quality these numbers have because I don't know, but they are fun to look at. If the FIP+ numbers look absurd, it's because the collective talent of NCAA pitchers is what it is, and aluminum bats probably don't make things easier. We do know that some teams draft more on future potential while others tend to feel a little safer with a player with some track record. Here's a little introduction to some of these pitchers...

The one thing that immediately leaps out to me is that Stephen Strasburg will likely win one Cy Young and a couple dozen Stephen Strasburgs over his career. He is the most hyped draft prospect ever, but deserves every bit of it.
Mike Leake is the 14th best draft prospect and falls behind several high school pitchers in terms of upside, but has four offerings that grade as average or above average, and he generates a lot of sink on his fastball. The dominance speaks for itself, especially considering the context. Leake pitches in one of the most hitter friendly parks in college baseball. He is expected to be drafted anywhere from 8th to 17th overall.
What I said about Leake you can pretty much say about Mizzou's Kyle Gibson, only Gibson is a better physical specimen and therefore will most likely go higher than Leake, but Leake achieved better results. Neither pitcher throws exceptionally hard, but their fastballs have plenty enough movement to compensate.
Alex White entered the season with a lot of hype, but his stock seems to fall with every outing, as he hasn't dominated as everyone expected. He throws a 91-94 MPH fastball that can touch 97, as well as an above average slider and splitter, but he's been all over the map this season. His stock has slipped, he was once considered an easy top 5 pick, but now, who knows?
Chad Jenkins will not sell jeans, but he will get gobs of ground balls with his sinker. I think he'll go to my St. Louis Cardinals, who pick 19th, judging by their recent track record of drafting pudgies. He's also rumored to be the Nats "cheap" pick after they break the bank on Strasburg.
Andy Oliver and James Paxton are two lefties with high ERA's, but their peripherals are top shelf. Both pitchers play tough schedules, and Okie State's Allie P. Reynolds Stadium is a very unforgiving place to play. Both pitchers have plenty of projection, so a couple of lucky teams could see these two upside arms fall to them in the back of the first round or even in the supplemental round. Paxton might slip even further, as he's advised by Scott Boras and is said to be looking for a big payday.
Indiana has a pretty impressive 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation, and while Eric Arnett is projected to be a top 25 pick, I think I like Bashore better. His FIP numbers are better, he throws four pitches, his mechanics are believed to be the cleaner of the two and he's a lefty with size.
Teams who are willing to gamble on upside and like a project will gamble on Sam Dyson. He has two above average offerings (fastball, curve), but the results have been abysmal. I'd stay away, but I'd expect a team who has picks to spare like the Brewers roll the dice.
Kyle Heckathorn has a true baseball player name and his stuff is said to be almost on par with Strasburg's, but he gets the whole "thrower, not a pitcher" tag and has been compared to none other than Kyle Farnsworth.
Chris Dwyer is a draft eligible freshman, which may be why his results are less than spectacular, but has a 90-94 MPH fastball and a good curveball.
I might take some flack for this, but reading various scouting reports, I'm not sure there is a vast difference between Mike Minor and Justin Marks, but Minor is expected to go as high as #3 overall and Marks is expected to go in the third round and also has the better peripherals.
Alex Wilson has been the victim of a tough schedule and tough park, and also has come back from Tommy John. His stuff hasn't fully returned but I suspect it will with more time. I don't know if I could classify him as a sleeper, but I have a feeling he could be one of those players who gets drafted lower and then sneaks up on everyone and be one of the top prospects in the minors in short order, a la the Orioles' Jake Arrieta.
The main knock on senior Louis Coleman is that he throws across his body.
For most of the others, I'd refer you to Jonathan Mayo's draft reports at MLB.com. Mayo's got video and plenty of scouting goodness for a the top end talent.
Googling around, I found next to nothing on some of these unranked pitchers. It sounds like senior Matt Way gets by on deception. Mark Serrano has a cool mustache. Brian Moran gets props for big-time results and for this yearbook photo:

I have no idea what he throws, but I'd draft him.

Hopefully this gives you a clue on a few pitchers whose names you'll see being called on draft day. It's a pretty good year for lefties, who I noted were more productive picks than other pitchers, or at least in the 90's. College hitters were the safest of the picks, and we'll look at them next. Sneak preview: To say it's a down year for college hitters would be an understatement.