So I was thinking after the defensive debacle last night that if we want to actually win some games this year, we need to change the defensive complexion of this team.  I'm not just referring to the errors; watching weak groundball after weak groundball slip through the infield for hits made me cringe. The first thing would probably have to be Pedro to first, Walker to third (and maybe in the future, Walker to RF where his speed and strong arm would play well), D'Arnaud to second, and put Ciriaco in at SS.  However if Ciriaco is as huge an offensive downgrade as people say, it would be hard to stomach two big downgrades at 2b and SS. 

So my next thought was Alcides Escobar.  Not a great bat, but not a downgrade from Ronny, young enough to get better, and reportedly with a very good glove at SS.  Kansas City might be willing to part with him for less than a huge sum, since he's not a stud player and they have Christian Colon coming up fast.  My first thought was a trade of Cedeno (bridge the gap to Colon) and Justin Wilson for Escobar.  Royals get an arm that's almost ready with upside plus a short term starter, Pirates get a long term starter at SS.  I don't know if that would be enough to pay, or maybe even too much, what do we think?

Looking ahead a bit, now you have a coming lineup of:

C Snyder/Doumit/Sanchez

1B Alvarez (has tools to be v. good defensive 1B)

2B D'Arnaud/Mercer/Holt/Cunningham

SS Escobar

3B Walker/Rendon

LF Tabata

CF Cutch

RF Jones/Diaz/Walker/Lambo/Gorkys/S. Marte/Presley

In the short term, decent offense and strong defense, in the long term very strong defense and possibly strong offense.  In both the short and long term, we'll see a big boost in pitching performance just from much improved defense, especially from guys like Morton and Maholm (and I think Owens) who are generating lots of groundballs.

Perusing things today, here are a few things that caught my interest:

Charlie Morton is throwing a sinker again.  Or more to the point, Kerrigan told him to stop throwing his sinker.  Maybe this is old news, but it's the first I've heard, and I find it significant.  First of all, it dovetails neatly with what WHYGAVS has pointed out a lot, which is that Effective Charlie Morton™ is a groundball out machine.  Secondly, unlike most of the in-the-best-shape-of-his-life kind of Spring Training nonsense, getting back a sinker (assuming it was originally an effective pitch) seems like an awfully major change.

From yesterday, KG at Baseball Prospectus ranks the Bucs system #17. (free)  In a different article, one of the BP writers put Matt Wieters on a list of the most disappointing prospects of all time, which should make us feel a little better about Dan Moskos.

On a similar note, KLaw reports today on twitter that Tanner Scheppers' velo and arm speed are way down, 88-91.  Might just be a tick, but Law sounds like it could be a serious problem, exp. given the bum shoulder.

Since most of ST looks fairly ho-hum (as it ought to) with almost all the jobs nailed down, and Charlie hasn't started the MLB projections yet, I thought we could have some fun with prospect projections.  Or at least for one, Rudy Owens, who it's starting to look like will be in the 'Burgh this summer for sure.  So here's the deal: post what you think Owens will put up for IP, Ks, BBs, and ERA.  Also given his prospect status, why not project for both minors and majors, with call-up date, like so:

Total: 186 IP, 164 K, 32 BB, 3.16 ERA

AAA:  98 IP, 93 K, 16 BB, 2.53 ERA

MLB: 88 IP, 71 K, 16 BB, 3.88 ERA 

Call-up: mid-June

PS: Charlie, if you were already planning to do a Community Projection for Owens, feel free to delete/close comments.

As long as we are in a news lull, I'll take advantage to harass you folks- I live in Mexico City, so obviously Pirates coverage is all over the TV here.  Still, I want even more comprehensive coverage of the buccos, so I'm thinking about shelling out for MLB.tv for the season.  Anybody got comments, opinions, or experiences on the service?  I've ostensibly got a 1 Mb/s download connection (DSL), though the actual speed can vary a fair bit in either direction.  Anyone had any experience using MLB.tv outside of the US?

Thanks for the help.  

Looking at a possible trade target, in the OF.

There have been rumblings that the Dodgers may make Matt Kemp available this winter.  Kemp has been a star in CF for the Dodgers, most especially in 2009 when he posted this line:  

and was in the running for the MVP award.  he has consistently being a 3-WAR player for his career.  This was also true last year when his slash line slumped: 

but he still posted 2.3 WAR.  That slash line slump has led the Dodgers to be unhappy with him, and they look ready to sell low.

Pros: Young talented hitter with power, OBP (apart from last year) and plus defense.  Outfield of Cutch Tabata and Kemp would be very very good.  Even in down year, valuable player; will be 26 and 27 in 2011-12, so major career year possibilities.  No Doumit/GFJ/Scrappy/Moss in RF

Cons: possible high price tag.  Only two years until FA.  WIll earn 7 mil next year, possibly 10 mil + in 2010.  Not a pitcher :)

What would it take to get Kemp?  Would he be worth the price?

Discuss.

Looking at two free agent possibilities... both buy-low 1st base options.  As Pedro is set to stay at 3rd, our options for upgrading position player-wise are 1B and RF.

Lance Berkman: BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+

Pros: Solid OBP, above average, veteran hitter, possible bounceback candidate, serviceable glove at 1st base, long track record of high quality performance

Cons: 34years old, name recognition drives up price, not a platoon candidate with GFJ, collapse possibility, mediocre power for 1st base, negative defensive value(not by much)

My Take: Berkman won't be super cheap, but his very subpar 2010 makes it possible that he would take a 1-2 year contract looking to bounce back.  I see that possibility as strong, since last year's OPS was 100+ points lower than in any other season for his career.  Overall BABIP was lowish (.282), and BABIP against LHP was very very low (.197).  Even with his 2010 results repeated, I think he would add value to the team primarily through his very strong OBP skills.  If he bats more like 2010, he could be a platoon partner with Pierce, with GFJ as RF or bench option.  I would consider 2 years, 17-20 million to be a good contract for him.  His $15 million option for next year won't be picked up, so his per year ceiling is unlikely to be very high.  Best case: .950 OPS and lots of trade value.  Worst case: .750 OPS and some money down the drain.

Derrek Lee:

Pros: Positive defensive value, possible bounceback candidate, strong OBP (very strong with bounceback), decent power, platoon candidate with GFJ, likely to cost less than Berkman.

Cons: inconsistent track record pre-2010, even a bounce back won't produce a lot of power, less trade value witha bounceback than Berkman, collapse possibility

My Take: Berkman with a little lower ceiling and a little better defense.  Probably would require a contract similar to berkman's.  Lee would add value mostly by trading an above average bat for a below average bat, and with some added defensive reliability.  OBP skills should make a big difference in lineup even if he doesn't return to form.  He could be part of a rotation with Jones and Pierce for 1B/RF.  Contract: perhaps 2 years, 15-17 mil.  Best case: .875 OPS, significantly better INF defense and some trade value.  Worst Case: .725 OPS, indifferent defense and some money down the drain.

Discuss.

I'm curious what the Bucsdugout crowd thinks about Adrian Beltre as a FA target? 

I've been thinking about him as a target for a few weeks, thinking that the best (quick and dirty) way to to add some respectability to next years team would be to shore up the defense in a big way, especially since what starting pitching talent we have is of the pitch-to contact variety.  One scenario I came up with is this:

Move Alvarez to 1B, sign J.J. Hardy to play SS, Beltre to play 3B and hope that Walker's D improves.  Obviously we're not calling this a playoff roster, but it seems like a decent bridge roster to bring back a little respectability while we wait for more major talent to arrive.

Then I saw that Beltre had a majorly good season with the bat this year (I've been a little out of touch), and put up over 7 WAR (fangraphs).  OTOH, I saw this article about Beltre's value, suggesting it might not be especially high.  So could the pirates be a player for Beltre?  Would he and Hardy make a big impact on the D in this scenario, or are there other players who would fit this idea better?  Discuss.

With Pedro finally up, the Pirates have essentially no MLB-ready position player prospects left (barring Tony Sanchez, who will basically just replace Ryan Doumit's production with better defense, we hope).  Barring both collapses by Walker/Tabata, and breakouts by Pearce/Milledge, in my view the Pirates have a quality offense that lacks one more power threat.  Combine that with the fact that the Buccos have (to use a technical term) a buttload of cash available for payroll.  Furthermore, we have positions available at 1B or RF, the two easiest positions at which to find a good bat.  To me it makes sense to find a short-ish term FA (2 years), to give the Bucs a chance at a quality offense; that alone won't make them a contender, but with pitching anything could happen, and a FA at this point won't block a prospect.  So for fun, I looked at Cot's Baseball contracts; the outfield for 2010 is a little thin, but look at the glut of 1B's:

Adam Dunn WAS

Lance Berkman HOU *

Wes Helms FLA
Jason Giambi COL
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
David Ortiz BOS *
Lyle Overbay TOR
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *

One can immediately cross off the following names: Pujols (no way), Ortiz(defense), Giambi (no), Helms (mediocre) and Overbay (terrible).  I'm also guessing that Berkman is not a practical option, since he'll probably stay in Houston.  Whats left is intriguing:

Adam Dunn WAS

Paul Konerko CWS

Derrek Lee CHC
Carlos Pena TB

All of these guys should have a shot at the open market, but I don't think any will get a huge contract; Konerko's old, Dunn and Pena are super low AVG/high K guys, and Lee is having a poor season(and the Cubs are too much of a mess to re-sign him).  I'd love to see the Bucs throw one of these guys a 2-year, $15-25 million contract; would they sign for that?  Would it make a difference?

I also wouldn't mind seeing them throw the kitchen sink at Cliff Lee....

My bad if this ground has already been covered.... but would Harden be a good move for the Pirates?  his contract is going to be hard to predict, given his injury issues, but say for a two-year contract?  The Pirates have enough spare payroll lying around that they could afford the risk, say 7 mil for two years, with some incentives?

On a simlar note, how about Ben Sheets?  He'd probably be worthless until midseason or later, but who is better positioned right now than the Pirates, to take a risk like that?  Risk: waste some money, and burn a roster spot while he shows he's toast.  Upside: Get an ace for cheap.

Going into this offseason, the Pirates are about $15-25 million below their payroll norm ($40-50 mil) for next year, and likely the next few, as few players are near their big raises.  That is a substantial amount of cash, and I am going to guess (with, admittedly, no data to back it up) that few other teams have that kind of spending cash, given the general economic environment.  This may provide a competitive advantage in the market, but it might forestall the rebuilding process.  Below I've listed what I see as the possible approaches to this offseason; note that none of them in any way supercede the ultimate goal of building from within.

Spend Nothing- In the mold of the 2008 winter, NH steers almost entirely clear of the free agent market beyond some marginal signings of bench players, minor league free agents etc.  Sink or swim long term entirely on the development of the prospects in house.

Spend Some- The goal here might be a repeat of Littlefield's lucky 2004 offseason, picking up useful players in the mold of Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton and improving the team on the cheap.  Could also target quality complementary players for the long term, to be present should Alvarez, etc. indeed become star major leaguers.  Could result in pointless signings for more mediocrity.

Make a Splash- Go for broke and spend it all; see if a marquee free agent or two will take the bucks to come here.  Hope that the farmhands are ready sooner rather than later, and if not, well at least they made the Pirates interesting, if not good per se.  Could pay off big, could be a waste of money and a distraction.

I think they all have advantages and drawbacks; but which one most serves the goal of producing a World Series contender(eventually)?  Can the best solution be followed without further pissing off the casual Pirate fans?

Discuss.

Just for fun:

Is it possible that the buccos could sign Hideki Matsui?  Seems a stretch, maybe, but he is a bit injury-prone.  But let's say they did somehting like this:

Sign Matsui: 3 years, 25-30 million

Jack Wilson: 3 years, 10 Million

Freddy Sanchez: 3 years, 14 million

all that would bring the 2010 payroll to about 40 million, leaving plenty to do something about the bullpen.  Might this not result in a pretty strong lineup?  At least if Jones can keep it up(which I'll admit is a lot to bank on):

Cutch

Freddy

Jones

Alvarez

Matsui

Milledge

Doumit

Jack

Looks to me like no holes, and good defense everywhere except 3b and C.  And this leaves a fairly solid bench. Could it happen?  Any other free agents that would fit better?  Please discuss.

Curious if this seems reasonable, a complicated Bay/Wilson trade

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So my buddies and I were hanging out and decided to make a list of surefire hall of famers who are currently playing.  Curious what you guys think.  Just for fun, we listed guys who would be on the bubble, and guys who have the potential for a HOF career, but I'll post those later.  Fyi, this is assuming that the player's career were to end right now.

Surefires:

Randy Johnson
Roger Clemens
Ivan Rodriguez
Mike Piazza
Greg Maddux
Mariano Rivera
Derek Jeter
A-Rod
Albert Pujols
Pedro Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Ichiro
Ken Griffey Jr.
Barry Bonds
Sammy Sosa