Why not dream big? Keri:

Jarrod Washburn is the new Cliff Lee.

First, let's address the reasons why a breakout season for Washburn might seem like a long shot.

He's 34.
He's struck out 5 batters per 9 IP (give or take a percentage point or two) in each of the past 6 years.
His walk rates have been tidy but hardly Maddux-esque at 2.5 to 3 a game.
His BABIP this year is a bound-to-regress .224.
His stuff is, was and always be average at best.
He's Jarrod Freaking Washburn.

As a point of comparison, Cliff Lee was five years younger when he had his breakout season in '08, with significantly higher strikeout rates, significantly better K/BB rates, and a dominant fantasy season (and very good, if not quite dominant real-life season) in the not-too-distant past (2005).

The biggest similarity connecting the two pitchers is their extreme flyball rates. Few pitchers in all of baseball put the ball in the air more often than Washburn (0.66 FB/GB rate over the past 5+ seasons) or Lee (0.61 in that same span). Those tendencies leave a pitcher vulnerable to inflated home run rates in a homer-friendly park. Luckily for Washburn, Safeco Field is not Coors Field, keeping his HR rates down to just a tick above average since coming to Seattle in 2006.

The bigger problem for Washburn with the Mariners has been the woeful outfield defense behind him. Specifically the defense in left field. Opposing managers routinely stack their lineup with right-handed hitters when the lefty Washburn takes the mound. That makes flyballs more likely to travel to left field and left-center than anywhere else. As Mariners fans can tell you--while gritting their teeth in agony--left field at Safeco was patrolled for five years by one of the worst defenders in baseball, Raul Ibanez.

Keri ultimately steps back from the Washburn-for-Cy-Young statement (read the whole thing, it's quite good), but joins one of his commenters in granting that Washburn-as-Kyle-Lohse isn't at all unlikely.  I don't know that we should be too thrilled about that, however.

That's right, it's our old friend Tony LaCava:

The Nationals, according to multiple industry sources, are strongly considering firing general manager Jim Bowden and replacing him with Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava.

Bowden has been implicated in a bonus skimming scandal in the Dominican Republic and is reportedly being investigated by the FBI. Jose Rijo, the former major-league pitcher and a special assistant to Bowden, has taken a leave of absence in wake of the allegations.

I remember how many of us were surprised and even initially disappointed when LaCava was passed over and the M's job was instead given to Zduriencik.  ("Who?  This old-school guy?  BAH!")  Because the Nationals are the world's most cursed franchise, this now means that -- assuming this all comes to pass -- LaCava will turn out to be an absolute screw-up, and the M's will have narrowly escaped disaster by snagging GMZ.

I've been telling myself this all season long: at least ONE of my teams is turning things around.

For all those wondering why Ben Sheets hadn't yet signed a contract with anybody, including offseason-long suitors the Texas Rangers, now you know.

Why is the National League's All-Star Game starting pitcher still looking for a job?

The answer is that free agent right-hander Ben Sheets may need surgery to repair the torn flexor tendon in his elbow, and his former employers may be asked to pick up the tab. Brewers assistant general manager Gord Ash said on Thursday that the team has been in discussions this week with Sheets' agent and officials from Major League Baseball about who would pay for the procedure.

I'm shocked, shocked at this development.  Also newsworthy -- and buried in the linked story -- is the fact that the Rangers had already inked a 2 year deal with Sheets, which was already final...pending a physical.  Guess what the physical found? 

Could be worse, I suppose.  Could've been another Jason Jennings situation, where the season-ending injury is found AFTER the contract is announced.

Via robot overlord Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:

The Mariners and Brewers are among the teams interested in free-agent utility man Craig Counsell. The Brewers declined Counsell's $3.4 million team option, but could bring him back at a lesser salary. Counsell, 38, had a .355 on-base percentage in 302 plate appearances last season. He also drew interest from the Indians before the Tribe traded for Mark DeRosa ...

The Mariners likely are willing to move right-hander Aaron Heilman, who they did not consider a key component of their six-player return in the J.J. Putz trade. Heilman, 30, is entering his second year of arbitration, and could make sense for one of the many teams looking for an affordable starting pitcher. The Mets used him as a reliever, but he prefers to start ...

Of course, a smart GM might justifiably ask whether Heilman's preference for starting over relieving ought to override the fact that he would make a crappy starter.  But then there's always Dayton Moore.

The final tallies - Rickey and Rice are in

Player/Total Votes/Percentage

Rickey 511 94.8%
Jim Rice 412 76.4%
Andre Dawson 361 67.0%
Bert Blyleven 338 62.7%
Lee Smith 240 44.5%
Jack Morris 237 44.0%
Tommy John 171 31.7%
Tim Raines 122 22.6%
Mark McGwire 118 21.9%
Alan Trammell 94 17.4%
Dave Parker 81 15.0%
Don Mattingly 64 11.9%
Dale Murphy 62 11.5%
Harold Baines 32 5.9%
Mark Grace 22 4.1%
David Cone 21 3.9%
Matt Williams 7 1.3%
Mo Vaughn 6 1.1%
Jay Bell 2 0.4%
Jesse Orosco 1 0.2%
Ron Gant 0 0%
Dan Plesac 0 0%
Greg Vaughn 0 0%

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I take solace in the fact that a.) McGwire still has no HOF momentum.  Count me as one of those anti-PED cranks who wants to see guys like Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro erased from the HOF-approved history.

I take no solace in the fact that Blyleven (as no-brainer a HOF pitcher as currently exists on the ballot) only got 62.7% of the vote, with Andre Dawson (who at least has has a more colorable case for induction than Jim Rice) overtaking him.  And Tim Raines at 22.6%?  Disgraceful.

Don't even talk to me about the 5% of voters who left Rickey off their ballot.  For fuck's sake, people.  As G.O.B. Bluth would say, "COME ON!"

Curses be to these dastardly Nationals.  It wasn't enough for them to strategically out-fail the Mariners, now they've gone and poached our beloved interim manager and made him their bench coach.

WASHINGTON -- Former major league manager Jim Riggleman and former players Marquis Grissom and Pat Listach are joining the Washington Nationals' coaching staff.

Riggleman is Washington's new bench coach, Grissom is the first-base coach, and Listach the third-base coach. Rick Eckstein, older brother of 2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein, will be the hitting coach, and Randy Knorr the bullpen coach.

Friday's hirings replace five members of manager Manny Acta's staff who were fired on the last day of the regular season. The Nationals went 59-102, the worst record in the majors.

Pitching coach Randy St. Claire remains on the staff.

Ladies and gentlemen, witness a legend in the making:

B.J. Upton, benched three times in the past two weeks for failing to hustle, was caught jogging on the bases again Monday night and thrown out at second on what should have been a routine double.

This time, Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon left his center fielder in the game after his latest base running gaffe.

The speedy Upton hit a fourth-inning drive to left against the Los Angeles Angels and broke into a trot out of the batter’s box, apparently thinking it would be a home run. Instead, the ball hit the fence on a hop.

Upton casually rounded first and jogged toward second with Angels first baseman Mark Teixeira following up the line to meet left fielder Juan Rivera’s throw to an uncovered base. Teixeira fielded the ball on a hop and made the tag just before a surprised Upton touched the bag.

With the inning over, Upton dropped his head and bent over at second base for a few moments before taking his position on defense.

Trust me when I say that this description does not do justice to just how unbelievably atrocious Upton was on the play.  I consider it to be one of the two or three laziest, most inexcusably [facepalm] moments I have ever witnessed at any level of baseball, including my old Little League team.  Also, one of the most hilarious.  Please find a way to catch a clip of this (it'll be all over ESPN tonight, and probably on MLB.com too).  Do it for me.

Someday grizzled old grandparents will bounce their grandkids on their knee and regale them with stories about B.J. Upton, the Laziest Man of All Time.  It's actually beautiful in a way: he's taking on a mythic aspect, becoming a bizarro John Henry, a monument to awesomely hilarious indolence.  As I said in another thread, someday we will be telling Aesopian fables about Upton, along the lines of "The Ant and the Grasshopper," except that the grasshopper will be Upton and the ant will be Willie Ballgame.

[I was going to entitle this "Baker: Burn The Tree!" but even though the joke is funny, I don't want to attract that weirdo here under a new pseudonym.]

Anyway, Baker's had enough, saying that more and more it seems to him like the team ought to be stripped for parts like a car abandoned south of 62nd Street in Chicago.  The dilemma he correctly points out, however, is that the Mariners ownership/FO is so inept and inert that any rebuilding process is going to move at a glacial pace.

A few weeks ago, I was convinced this was just a one-year happening...[a]dd a few good hitters, I figured, and you could clean the mess up by next season and take another shot at contending.

Now, I'm not so sure. And judging by the actions -- or lack of action other than yelling and screaming -- by the team's ownership and management, I don't think they are too sure either. The Mariners seem to be an organization paralyzed by indecision.

[...]

It's never easy for any organization to "blow it up''. The only folks who find that an easy route are fans looking for an outlet through which to vent anger. I understand that. But it's no way to run a baseball team. Blowing up the Mariners means, at minimum, waiting another three years before contending again. Hoping for something quicker is akin to fooling yourselves. Billy Beane isn't taking over this team tomorrow. Whoever is running the show in 2009 will be hard-pressed to contend before 2012 if he or she "blows it up". Get it straight. Get it right. Do not delude yourselves, please.

Read the article for his musings on the incomprehensibility of the Johjima re-signing, and his frustration at the opaqueness of Armstrong and Lincoln's "leadership." Morrow and Dickey are labelled as the only two people on the roster who haven't in some way contributed to this disaster of a season so far:

Some of you keep asking for names. I've given you pages full of them these past few weeks. You can more or less take anybody on that roster save for Brandon Morrow and R.A. Dickey and make a case for how they've contributed to this team's losing. Yes, even some of your favorite players. Frankly, I don't see anybody on this roster who isn't expendable. Yes, I did just write that. Obviously, they can't all go. But some will have to.

God our team sucks.  I've been joking over the last few weeks about how I still enjoy watching them because I'm a masochist, but I'm moving beyond that phase at this point.  Anyway, read the whole entry; I've only excerpted a tiny amount.

Oh dear.

Seattle PI 

Shortstop Carlos Triunfel, considered by some to be the best player in the Seattle minor league system, is serving an indefinite suspension and is not currently on the roster of the Mariners’ High Desert team in the California League.

Mariner director of player development Greg Hunter confirmed Monday that Triunfel has been suspended for a violation of team rules and has been sent back to the Mariners’ minor league complex in Peoria, Ariz. to serve out the duration of the suspension.

The Mariners aren’t saying just what rules were broken, but this suspension has already lasted nine days, so it’s apparently not a minor thing.

Triunfel, an 18-year-old signed out of Venezuela, hasn’t played in a game since May 10 and Hunter said there was no set date for the suspension to be lifted.

The Mitchell investigation, sham though it pretty much is, has received a bunch of names from Kirk Radomski.  The current leaks - first, Ankiel, now Glaus, who knows who next? - seem to be at least partially related to that.  I have the sense that sports reporters have been sitting on all sorts of rumors that are now being finally reported.  

My question: what if they're all on the juice?  

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