SB Nation User Blog: etp_stl

Why we should wait to judge this team.

etp_stl — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:43:34 -0000

This is more to spark objective discussion, than what it is to define a current statistical analysis of the team.

If this team can hang in there until the All-Star break, then I believe you will start to see some cohesion. There are a lot of young players in positions of responsibility this year. In my opinion, here are the things that will be sorted out between now and the trading deadline.

Middle Infield:

- Schumaker can't be evaluated until he has a half season at 2B under his belt. He hasn't embarrased himself, yet; but he still seems to be awfully slow on the turn of the DP. That will catch up to us if he can't get smoother at that. Especially with the loss of Carpenter. The rest of our staff relies heavily on the team's defense.

- Khalil Greene will either show his '07 form or his '08 form by the All-Star break. Right now, we haven't exactly seen the upgrade from Izturis that was billed. On the bright side, he costs a lot more. I think he will probably start producing, but I don't know if he is going to respond well to the constant lineup shuffling. I definitely don't see a reason for him to be put in the 4 hole again this season. I wouldn't hit him ahead of Yadi, either.

- Barden/Thurston/Ryan will shake out so that two probably stay through the season, and the third will be discarded. I can't see an argument for Ryan, at this point; but, again, it's early. I would like to see a couple months out of these guys to see how it shakes out. It seems to me that we have probably seen the best that Ryan is going to provide offensively. It's really going to be up to the other two to maintain their current production to keep their spots.

Third Base:

- Freese is going to have to show more than just glove to keep his job with the big club. Freese has shown well offensively in AAA, but so did John Gall. We'll have to see if he can make the jump. I think you'll be looking at 2 months to see what shakes out at that position, as well.

-Neither Barden nor Thurston have seemed to be a significant enough downgrade defensively to justify them not playing over Freese, so far.

- I'm not expecting Glaus to be back in Cardinal red. As the saying goes, fool me once ...

Relief Pitching:

- McClellan/Perez/Motte/Kinney/Boggs will either straighten it out or go back to the minors by then.

- I think that McClellan, Perez, Motte, Kinney, and Franklin are going to solidify the right side of the bullpen.

- I'm not convinced on Boggs, but he could prove me wrong. McClellan seems to be settling down (every reliever will have the occasional hiccup).

- Kinney, Motte, and Perez are going to start to figure it out by the All-Star break. The frustration of failure goes with the territory of watching these young pitchers develop. I think they are going to be pretty exciting for years to come, but that means going through the growing pains with them now.

- Franklin is going to give us what we have come to expect from him. Generally, he is going to get the job done, while continuing to be the single, greatest salesman for Rolaids in the known universe.

Starting Pitching:

- Carpenter is either going to be back by the All-Star break, or his oblique tear is going to follow down the path of Woody Williams. Even if he comes back, he might not stay due to that injury; and he will probably be on a limited pitch count. If he comes back healthy, this team has a chance to contend. Otherwise, they probably don't.

- Walters/Boggs will either become valuable 5-6 starters, or they won't. I liked the flashes that Walters showed today, but he hasn't proven to be a valid rotation guy, just yet. Let's see how he progresses over the next few months. It isn't like the team has a lot of options for developing that position, right now.

- Will Ottavino, Hawksworth, or Todd become valid options to start? I think it would be extremely optimistic to believe that Carpenter will be the only injured starter for the entire year. Consequently, the Cards are going to need one of these guys to fill in at some point this year. That, or maybe Todd takes McClellan's spot when he is moved to the rotation.

- Can the Cards find a reliable option via trade? Some have indicated the problems the organization is going to have next year in using the 40-man roster to protect players. I think they have reached the point where some of these prized prospects are going to have to be traded to fill major league holes and make room on the 40-man. Will Mozeliak and Luhnow be able to identify and execute opportunities to improve the team? I think we'll see that by the trading deadline this year.

Outfield:

- I think we can all agree that Ludwick seems to be more than just a one-year wonder. It's still early, but I don't see any signs that the rest of the league has "figured him out." He seems like he will be the protection that Pujols needs.

- We will see if Duncan/Ankiel can stay healthy for an entire year. Both have shown a significant propensity for injury. We still need to see if Ankiel's hitting is going to come around, but the kid has so much talent that it seems unlikely he will not turn it around. Ultimately, I think one of these two are going to be included in a trade at the deadline if they are both producing by then.

- Rasmus/Mather/Barton/Jay/et al will make their claims for fourth and fifth outfielders. Mather has gotten off to an awful start. He is quickly giving away his opportunity. Rasmus seems to be up to his billing. It will be interesting to see if he hits the swoon that has plagued him throughout his career when transitioning levels. I think Barton or Jay can make cases for themselves once a position opens up due to trade. Maybe the Cards will trade one of them, instead.

It's still a long season. We have 150 games to go, so the snap decisions comparing this team to last year's team are a little silly. I personally think it's going to be fun to see how these things flesh out over the course of the season. I like watching all of these guys grow up in front of us, but we have to remember that they are doing just that: growing up. It's unfair to label Motte or Perez as a failure after the first couple of opportunities. It's impossible to decide what we have in Walters or Freese or Thurston, etc. How do you guys see these shaking out?

How NOT to Hire a Head Coach

etp_stl — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 14:46:54 -0000

How NOT to Hire a Head Coach

Guys and Gals,

I found this on FoxSports.com on the KC team front page. It is a pretty interesting article regarding Head Coach hiring practices. Let me know what you think.

How NOT to Hire a Head Coach

etp_stl — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 14:43:16 -0000

How NOT to Hire a Head Coach

I thought this was a very interesting article that I found on FoxSports.com.

What would a pure OPS lineup look like?

etp_stl — Mon, 19 May 2008 01:48:16 -0000

We had some pretty spirited discussions in the game thread today about which players belong in the lineup. There were some great points made by AdjustedExpectations indicating a serious disparity in playing time between both the infielders and the outfielders. It got me wondering where the decisions might be coming from. I decided to take a look at what a lineup based solely on OPS might look like. I know that there are plenty of additional variables to making out a lineup, but I thought it would add some discussion.

So, I looked at the OFs, first.

Ludwick 1.130
Ankiel .853
Duncan .776
Schumaker .738
Barton .727

This would lead to an OF of

LF Duncan
CF Ankiel
RF Ludwick

Then, I looked at the IFs next.

Pujols 1.082
Glaus .801
Molina .755
Miles .707
Ryan .655
Izturis .643
Kennedy .637
LaRue .530

First of all, let me just say that having 5 of 8 at about .700 or below is pathetic. That said, I come up with an IF of:

C Molina
1B Pujols
2B Miles
SS Ryan
3B Glaus

So, I think we start to see why we have LOB problems. There aren't enough guys that can hit a 2B on this team, much less an HR. Our middle infield is really awful offensively. Honestly, Miles is the best of the group, right now. Pitiful.

What do you guys think about that lineup? Are we losing enough defensively by replacing Schumaker or Barton with Duncan? How about replacing Kennedy and Izturis with Miles and Ryan? I have stated frequently that I don't have much use for Miles, but the numbers make it difficult to just write him off. Personally, for my batting order, I would go this way:

Miles
Molina
Pujols
Ankiel
Ludwick
Glaus
Duncan
Pitcher (WTH)
Ryan

I think Molina has a chance to be really helpful in the 2 hole. His OPS is a little lower than Duncan, but his OBP could be very useful here. Duncan's power could be more useful lower in the order. You could use Miles and Molina in hit-and-run situations. Molina's speed won't be an issue in front of Pujols, IMO. You aren't going to steal bases in that spot, and Pujols is better without the hit-and-run.

Just some thoughts, so I'm interested in hearing what you guys/gals think. Who would you platoon, and why? Thanks for your time.

So, Let's Play GM

etp_stl — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 23:17:18 -0000

This is my first fanpost, so I hope you guys find some interest in the topic.

With the news on Mulder today, and with Springer traveling with the team on this road trip, the Cardinals are going to have to make some tough decisions soon. If you guys/gals could put on your GM hat for the next two months, I'm wondering how you would resolve the issues facing Mozeliak. Here are the issues, as I see them.

We have been fortunate that our pitching has been performing at, or above, the expectations. This makes it particularly difficult to handle the surplus of 4 and 5 starters and RH middle relief. These guys are difficult to trade, especially early in the season; and too many of them are without additional options. If only a few of them had flopped, then the decision would be more clear cut.

Instead, the Cardinals are faced with having Wainwright, Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer, Pineiro, Thompson, Mulder, Clement, and (cringe for the aftermath) Reyes as starting options. Carpenter will be an option later in the summer, but I believe that his time-table is too far off to join in this dicussion, as there is enough time to make an hole for him. So, I'm going to take him off of the table for now. Wainwright and Lohse are the only two starters with enough track record to justify calling them untouchable, so that leaves us with three spots for seven potential starters. Then, you have Isringhausen, Franklin, Springer, Thompson, Wellemeyer, McClellan, Reyes, Looper, Pineiro, and Clement as options for RHP out of the bullpen; and Villone, Flores, and Johnson as options for LHP. Obviously, I'm just talking about current major league options; and, as the table seems to be plenty full, I'm going to leave out the Motte, Perez, Worrell, et al. options. Isringhausen is the only untouchable on the relief list, IMO; so that leaves us with nine options for four RHP spots, and three options for two LHP spots. (I guess potentially we could go with three LHP and four RHP, but that doesn't make anything easier.)

Only Reyes, Thompson, McClellan, and Johnson have options remaining; and we now have 13 guys that we can mix and match to fill 9 spots. It looks like Johnson is probably still a little ways off, and we're still not sure about Clement; but there is a potential that both could be available before June 1.

So, how would you go about resolving this? Let's take out what we think LaRussa or Duncan would advocate, so as not to start any "they hate Reyes" discussions, please. I am asking more what you would do, not what you think they would do. I also think it will be extremely difficult to get any kind of value on the trade market before late May or early June, so that is an additional factor that will handcuff you as a GM.

I'm going to initially reserve my thoughts, so as to not sway the discussion at the beginning. I would like to see who thinks that one should option down the young guys to make room for the returning veterans makes the most sense, in order to make an informed decision before making moves this summer; and who thinks that one should cut loose the older talent in order to make room for the burgeoning younger talent. Do the standings have an impact on your decision? Are you willing to give away players without getting full value, or does the value of younger players developing in the major leagues outweigh the lost value?

Thanks for your time, and I look forward to the discussion.