SB Nation User Blog: explicator

NBA League Pass not working, but I'm sure the Blazers are rolling

explicator — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 05:36:26 -0000

I have League Pass through Dish, but the games are not being televised. As such, they are replaying games from last year, on the same nights the regular games are (against the same teams). It is hard to watch, because in these games the centers are foul-prone and can't do anything on offense, the PG play is horrible on both ends, Roy dominates the ball too much and everyone stands around and watches him, Outlaw and Rudy have a good game one night and then disappear the next, Aldridge rarely posts up so the team has no inside scoring, there is no defense or fast-break points, and Coach Nate never adjusts anything from one game to next, let alone within a game.

I wish I could watch the 2009-10 Blazer games, because I know after getting Andre Miller, hearing about how dominate Oden was in preseason, plus with another year of maturity for all the young talented Blazers, what happened last year is not relevant and couldn't possibly be used to suggest any type of trend for a player or coaching tendency. So, until Dish resolves its contract dispute with the NBA, I just watch the old games and imagine how dominate the team is being in the real ones (especially with two of the first games being against a Houston team that has lost its top three players and has no one over 6'7")... I could go to ESPN, of course, to read a boxscore and know for sure, but why bother? They are obviously 3-0 and rolling (although it is only three games into the season, so it doesn't mean they are going 82-0!).

Steve Nash and Hedo Turkoglu are coming to Portland

explicator — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:59:30 -0000

Obviously this is just speculation, but I think it has a high likelihood of happening.

Phoenix didn't make the playoffs last year and know the Shaq trade for Marion was a bust, and they know it won't be any better next year, so they traded Shaq for salary cap space two years from now, when all the big names are free agents. Now they are shopping Amare, their best player. In fact, it is rumored tonight that Amare is going to Golden State for, among others, Stephen Curry, who just happens to be a PG.

This would leave Nash, who is near the end of his career, on a team of rookies and young players, getting beat by 20 every night. It makes no sense for Nash to want to stay (and no sense for Phoenix to get nothing for him), so they will look to trade Nash. Nash, who previously did not want to leave, will now want to go to a contender. How many contenders need a PG for a few years and have the talent and draft picks to obtain him? Enter Portland.

KP wants to get a PG to bridge the next few years until Bayless is ready, so look for Nash to be dealt to a Portland for Blake, Outlaw and the $3M trade exception.

For the small forward spot, the Blazers have a lot of young potential but more questions than answers, so the Blazers use their cap space to sign free agent Turkoglu outright. Only a few teams have the cap space to offer Hedo anything, but only Portland is a good team, so Hedo doesn't have a lot of options if he wants to win.

Hedo is a significantly better ball handler, shooter, and player than Batum is today, and he can create his own shots when teams sag on LMA or Roy is off, plus Hedo is clutch and has experience in the playoffs. It also frees up Batum to come off the bench, which I think he is more valuable as a super sub who can exploit a matchup on a given night or shut someone down who starts hot.

Hedo is the outside shooter the Blazers need and can count on (Webster is an unknown entity at this point, and still has injury concerns), Nash is the PG they haven't had since Terry Porter, and if Oden can improve just on the defensive end by staying out of foul trouble, Nash alone will give him 4-5 dunks/easy layins on offense by breaking down his man in a way that Blake cannot.

A team of Nash, Roy, Hedo, LMA, Oden starting, with Bayless, Rudy, Batum, Webster, Joel off the bench, is an NBA title waiting to happen in the short-term and is still set up well to win in the long-term with Bayless stepping in for Nash, and Batum becoming a super sixth man who can play multiple positions as needed. Pendergraph will be the eventual replacement for Joel, but can also back up LMA.

Two questions: First, regardless of what you think, does my logic hold up? Is my understanding of the cap accurate and is this possible? Second, asuming it is, what do you think if this happened? Getting all-stars at the two need positions and only giving up Blake and Outlaw to do so seems pretty good to me.

Brutal, but there is hope

explicator — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 04:30:27 -0000

Short of an injury, that game could not have gone much worse for Portland. However, after letting my thoughts settle and looking at the box score, I think Portland will bounce back in game 2, because just about everything went right for Houston and about everything went wrong for Portland.

Yao and Scola went 16-18. You could completely ignore them in Game 2 and leave them wide-open, and they would not match that again. It was a fluke.

Portland shot 9% from the 3-point line. That won't happen again.

Aaron Brooks had 27 points and 7 assists. Granted, he is better than anyone Portland has, but that won't happen again. He hit five 3-pointers Saturday. In the regular season, he hit five only once, and scored over 22 points only once.

As much as I hated to buy into what the "experts" say (because the same ones said Boston would sweep Chicago), it appears they were right in saying that Portland's youth and inexperience would cause them to panic if they started slowly.

Hopefully the Blazers got it out of their system and realize now in retrospect that when the going gets tough, you can't abandon your strengths and start going 1 on 5 every possession; Portland will not win with Roy putting up 23 shots with two assists. I looked up the season game logs, and Roy put up 23 or more shots only four times all season and Portland lost every one of them (including a game against Houston).

Contrary to what everyone is saying, LMA needs to realize that Houston wants him to put his head down and pound it inside, because that isn't his strength but it is Houston's strength defensively. While we all want LMA to drive it inside more than once a game, it doesn't make sense to do so when they are packing four guys in the lane waiting for him, as they did on the first possession when Yao blocked LMA's shot.

LMA has to hit some of those outside shots to open things up, and THEN drive. Same with Roy; I love the aggression, but driving it inside on four guys, when all of them are taller than you, is not wise. Kick it out to the open three. If Rudy and Blake and Outlaw can't hit and outside shot, it is on them, but you won't know until you try; don't abandon the strategy that got you here because you fall behind early... weather the storm.

Blake and Sergio have to man up and do something to stop Brooks... they need to take it personally. If they really are incapable of stopping him, and they are going to miss open shots and turn it over, then start Bayless and play him for 48 minutes. Of course, I am being facetiously, but Brooks is not that good. If you are going to get torched, then at least hit some shots and take care of the ball.

Good game for Oden. 15 points 5 boards in 22 minutes with only 3 fouls (6-7 from the field).. he was active and looked good. Oden was probably the only positive for the Blazers in game 1.

Nate needs to consider starting Rudy or Outlaw over Batum for offense. Some will say you don't change this late, but the playoffs are all about adjustments, because teams don't play each other 4-7 times in a row in the regular season. There is no shame in tweaking.

Or, if Batum is going to start, he needs to show up. Two points and 0 rebounds in 19 minutes isn't going to cut it as a starting SF on a playoff team. He is a nice player, but I don't see value in this series. His strengths are defense and finishing on fast breaks, but Portland doesn't run against Houston, and there is no one for him to shut down, as Battier isn't known for offense and Artest is too strong. So, his defense is wasted, and meanwhile, Portland gets 2 points from their starting SF.

Nate could start Outlaw and not get hurt defensively by leaving Battier open, but Portland would at least have another offensive option (although Travis' two rebounds in 26 minutes is mind-boggling as well).

If Portland can win Game 2, I think all will be okay. What everyone is forgetting in this working theory that the Blazers are too young and inexperienced is that the Rockets are very experienced... with losing in the first round!

The Rockets have not made it out of the first round since 1997. In other words, they have more playoff experience, but the memories are of losing and choking. If Portland can get back on track, the pressure all falls on Houston to not blow it in the first round, yet again... don't underestimate the pressure of that albatross on the Rockets' neck.

Final note: Continuing the trend of the national media having no respect for this series, one game after pulling two people randomly out of the crowd to call game 1, game 2 is on NBA TV, which is available in 15 living rooms across the world.

Blazers vs. Hornets: Statement Game #13

explicator — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 23:02:56 -0000

This is a bit subjective, but I think it is an interesting way to look at Portland's season. The intent is to show a different perspective (not better or worse than any other metric) of where the team is at relative to the rest of the league, and perhaps provide a glimpse of what can be expected in the playoffs.

I defined a "Statement game" as a match against the top two teams in each Conference (at the time the game was played) home or away; road games against the top 9 in the Western Conference; and any game against the Lakers and Spurs, due to reasons that are both current and historic (they currently are the top two teams in the conference anyway).

A statement game is your chance to show the league that you have arrived and are to be reckoned with.

Blazer 2009 statement games:

1. at LA Lakers, opening night: L by 20

2. San Antonio: W by 1

3. at Phoenix: L by 11

4. at Utah: L by 7

5. at New Orleans: L by 6

6. at Phoenix: L by 10

7. at Boston: L by 15

8. at Utah: L by 9

9. at Denver: L by 8

10. Boston: W by 5

11. at LA Lakers: L by 14

12. Cleveland: L by 6

Portland is 2-10 in Statement games in 2009. Its average margin of loss is 8.3. The Blazers are 0-9 on the road in Statement games.

Tonight, the Blazers play at the Hornets, for Statement game #13. Portland can feel good about its winning streak (and it should), but until the Blazers start winning Statement games, little can be expected from this team in the playoffs.

I am interested to see how the Blazers play tonight, and if they can break through. They have an estimated 11 more Statement games this year, so plenty of opportunity to turn it around and build momentum for the playoffs.

Bynum strikes again

explicator — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 02:20:53 -0000

I am sure Blazer fans remember on opening night, it was Andrew Bynum who grabbed on to Greg Oden intentionally to keep him from rising up to dunk, causing Oden to land awkwardly and miss significant time. Now, Bynum has given a blatant cheap shot to Gerald Wallace, causing him a collapsed lung.

It would be interesting to look more closely at Bynum's play and find out how many times he puts people to the floor, because it is hard to believe these two incidents are the only times, although I concede it is possible.

Regardless, I hope the league reacts accordingly on the Wallace foul.

Would you trade Aldridge for Amare?

explicator — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 05:35:33 -0000

I imagine 95% of Blazer fans would say no to this without hesitation, but that doesn't mean it is a bad idea. Put emotion aside for a moment, consider what each player brings to the table, what Portland is lacking, and think about it.

If LMA reaches his full potential, will he ever be as good as or better than Amare Stoudemire is today and will be the next five years? Do you believe that LMA will ever be the physical presence down low to compliment Roy and the outside shooters? Is it more likely, in five years, that LMA will be more like Rasheed and Cliff Robinson and shoot 3-pointers when the team needs a big basket (like recently against Cleveland), or take it to the rim, draw the foul or make the shot?

While LMA is certainly a potential perennial all-star, Stoudemire already is a perennial superstar, able to CONSISTENTLY dominate games. He has shown he can play with other superstars guards (like Roy), including other dominant big men (like Oden will be). He wants out of Phoenix. He can mentor Oden in more ways than one ("I know what it is like to recover from that surgery, bro."). He is the big, bad, I am gonna take no crap from you attitude the Blazers sorely need. He can take pressure off of Oden and Roy.

He won't back down from Garnett, or be in awe of Lebron or Kobe. He brings a bit of the nasty that the Blazers lack, while not destroying the clubhouse. He plays defense better than any Blazer big man. He is a good passer. He is a scorer even when the outside shots aren't falling. He can hit free throws. He gets calls from the refs. He is the type of veteran the Blazers desperately need.

He is only 27, entering his prime, and will be a great player for several more years as the Blazers make their title run with Roy and Oden.

According to the ESPN trade machine, he could be had for LMA and Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract.

What do you think? I am a huge LMA fan, so I don't think this has to happen or should happen, but I think it is more logical than most of you will allow.

Poll

Would you trade Alridge and Raef LaFrentz for Amare Stoudemire?

Sure

121 votes

Never

81 votes

Maybe... I must admit it is intriguing but I like LMA a lot

105 votes

307 votes | Poll has closed

Colin Cowherd on Greg Oden

explicator — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 23:06:07 -0000

This morning I heard Colin Cowherd say on ESPN radio that he received a lot of email from Blazer fans about Oden. Cowherd told the fans to calm down. "It has only been three games. He may score 17 points a night, but that doesn't make him an offensive player... You can tell by watching him. I could tell by watching Wilt. Jabbar."

My reaction:

1. So three games of production is not enough to say positive things about Oden, but two games of no production is enough validation to Cowherd to say Oden will never be an offensive player? You can't have your cake and eat it too.

2. If Oden scores 17-20 a night, he will not be considered an offensive player? What would he be then? Only 30 players averaged 20 or more a game last year. I think 20 a night is an offensive threat, whether they are dunks or 30-foot shots. Blazer fans would be overjoyed with a guy who gets 17-13-4 every night for 15 years. You win championships with those numbers from your center.

3. Cowherd can tell what Oden, at age 20, will be at age 24? Or age 30? Cowherd could tell by watching Wilt and Jabbar at that age? Really? Cowherd watched a lot of Wilt at Kansas in 1952 when he was 20? Cowherd set the Tivo to watch Jabbar every weekend in 1968 at UCLA? We have no baseline here, because a center this good hasn't been under this much media and fan exposure in NBA history. There weren't videos of Akeem playing soccer in Nigeria at age 16 on Youtube.

If you just put aside emotion or agenda and just think logically, what is more likely to happen: That Oden has topped his potential now, at age 20, a few games into his career, or that he will only get better, more fluid, comfortable, and confident as he gets more playing time, his teammates and coaches figure out how to play with him, and he recovers from a surgery in which they drill holes in your knee bones?

I am going with the latter.