Last year, Ron Shandler rolled out a draft strategy of playing for two years down the road.  It has great appeal for keeper leagues where a couple/three teams have built an awesome foundation of production.

In my NL-Only 4x4 keeper, two teams are employing the strategy this draft.  I am guessing the draft inflation will be incredible up and down the Stars, Almost Stars, and Everyday ABs ladder.

Any thoughts?

Update: I am one of those teams in the UBA NL-only league that Eric (Faketeams) mentions above, and have about $240 available on draft day. I plan to buy a couple stars and a closer to deal by mid-season, to play for 2011. I have previously written about this strategy here.

 

Steve (NYC)

Rob, do you think the Sox are putting too many eggs in the UZR basket? They've improved their defense, but from a distance it also looks like they've added mediocre bats to 1/3 of their lineup. Are we really so confident in the relative value of defense to offense that these "WAR" numbers are gospel? I guess we'll find out, but I personally find the Sox a lot less scary than in previous seasons.

Rob Neyer   (12:10 PM)

 

Cameron has been an above-average hitter in each of the last 11 seasons; Beltre has been above average in four of the last six seasons. So, no.

I couldn't have expressed my doubts about the Red Sox off-season any better.  Nor could have Neyer answered him in a way that didn't fit with my personal view of the groupthink surrounding the leading baseball writers on whatever the Red Sox do.

AL-only, 4x4, keeper league with 30-40% inflation for top players.  14 keepers in 23-man roster.

You will protect just two of the these three:  2B Dustin Pedroia at $34, OF Bobby Abreu at $35 or 1B Miguel Cabrera at $49

Here is the first of my three fantasy football teams.  It is a 12-team PPR league, and I selected 1st overall and choose Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson.  I had little doubt about that pick.

What I wasn't so sure about was which positions to address at the 2.12/3.01 turn.  I had been seriously entertaining a QB/WR if any of the top QBs were available (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning). 

When Tom Brady was selected with the 2nd pick, I had a feeling taking a QB was unlikely.  After Brady, Drew Brees was selected 7th overall.  Then Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were taken in the 2nd round as was Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner.

Those selections solidified my strategy to draft amongst the next group of QBs later in the draft.  In another surprise turn, Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan was selected in the 3rd round as was Dallas Cowboy QB Tony Romo and San Diego Charger Philip Rivers.

My immediate adjustment was to put off selecting a QB until later and take advantage of the fact that top WRs and RBs will be available when I picked who otherwise wouldn't have been thanks to the surprise early drafting of QBs.

I believe my roster bears out that assessment.

Pre-season news has Carolina Panthers' 2nd year RB Jonathan Stewart continuing to struggle with an Achilles heel ionjury. If Stewart were to be out as a legitmate RB in 2010, how high would you move DeAngelo Williams?

Right now, I don't rank Williams much higher than the end of the 1st round in a PPR format. He caught just 22 passes last season, and repeating last season's TD explosion seems unlikely to be repeated.

Without Stewart, I'm not sure how many more touches per game Williams would receive. After all, he had 274 carries last season and that figure ranked 9th in the NFL.

Second, Williams would be the sole focus of defenses who had all off-season to scheme against him. That is absolutely key to understanding the difficulty of any NFL player repeating outstanding seasons.

Third, Stewart only caught 8 passes. Williams won't grab any extra touches there.

Finally, Williams will not be as fresh without Stewart providing a breather.

So am I wrong to conclude DeAngelo Williams will not be much better in 2009 without Jonathan Stewart there to share the load?

For those who wonder where I have been, I am blogging at Rotisserie Musings in a much simpler format.

From his free weekly email, Ron Shandler provided his preliminary top five picks for 2010 mixed league drafts.  Raygu will be very pleased to see #3 at least.

1. Pujols

2. Braun

3. Kemp

4. Crawford

5. Ramirez.


Is he crazy?  If not, there seems to be a premium placed on OF as a scarcer position than most long-time fantasy players consider it to be.

Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson produced 1,331 yards and 12 TDs without the benefit of a mediocre QB and no other receiving threats.  This has made him a 1st round pick in most leagues that value WRs.

I admit to loving him this season, but should I be worried about his 78 receptions in a PPR format?  Typically, 100 receptions is the gold standard for elite PPR WRs.

Are there really any sleepers or busts in fantasy football anymore?

Bust: RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

Man, I could have sworn Jackson was thirty years old already, but he will just be 26 when the season begins.  No matter, a RB who has been heavily used and unable to play more the twelve games in either of the past two seasons profiles as a 30-year-old RB.

With just WR Donnie Avery as an obvious receiving target, Jackson will be expected to be a vital part of the receiving game, and many will look at those 90 receptions in 2006 as justification to take SJax in the Top 10.  I am going to shy away thanks to those two consecutive seasons of injuries.   At a position that chews-up and spits out its best by 30, I have no faith that Jackson can stay off the injury carousel.  

With such a high pick, I want more certainty that the player will be penciled in to my starting line-up every week and not one who forces me to land a quality player late in the draft or grab one from the free agent pool. 

Breakout:  WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie, Avery flashed moments of brilliance.  For those lucky enough to start him in Week 8, you got a glimpse of what Avery should be expected to do more frequently as he is the undisputed #1 WR in St. Louis.

I expect the Rams to struggle in 2009, but Avery is set-up to provide the production Torry Holt provided prior to 2008 (90 catches, 1,100 yards) but with the more frequent breakaway pass.  Avery caught just 53 balls, but did so being while completely shut out of three games.  By season's end he was catching 5 or 6 passes a game - just like Holt.  With a year of experience, Avery will be one of a handful of 80-90 reception receivers with 1,000+ yards not taken in top five rounds.

Breakout:  RB Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

1^st round pick Donald Brown was a workhorse at the University of Connecticut and piled-up more than 2,000 yards rushing despite a passing game that appeared to be working for the opposing team more times than not. (ed;  Tyler Lorenzen in in Jacksonville camp trying out as a TE.)  A smart and disciplined back who waited for his blocks, Brown led the Huskies to an 8-5 record, and a victory in the Independence Bowl.   

RB Joseph Addai could have easily been my RB bust for the same reason Jackson is, but I deferred to the 26-year-old back  that has been much more productive.    Yes, Addai is the same age as Jackson and not nearly accomplished.  Wipeout Addai's  15 TD season in 2007, and no one even considers Addai an elite back. 

With an Addai injury, Brown will be a Top 10 back.  If Colts follow the Tennessee Titans lead and decide to share the backfield workload to keep Addai at full-strength all season, then Brown will be a quality flex.  Either way, expect Brown to be selected as high as the 6^th round and reward his owners.

If you're not tweeting....

injuryexpertRT @mlbhomerun: MLBXM & MLBNetwork are reporting Phillies are close to deal for Cy Young pitcher Roy Halladay. Annc poss within 24 hours.

Absolutely love the idea of the Philadelphia Phillies adding Roy Halladay.  Three or four prospects for one of the best pitchers in the game signed through 2010?  Can we start talking three-peat yet?

NL-Only FAABs getting blown out of water this weekend. 

From Twitter:

injuryexpertRT @BaseballStone: It looks like the st. Louis cardinals will make a deal for oaklands matt holliday. The asking price is brett wallace.

SI_JonHeyman tony la russa is said by sources to badly want holliday. cant blame 'em for that. #cardinals

These tweets follow on Buster Olney's earlier report of the same trade rumor - the Oakland A's send Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for AAA 3B Brent Wallace. 

For the A's, this seems like a great deal given the team needn't worry about Holliday accepting arbitration coming off a $13.5 million season and receive a player who will be major league ready before the team can even use the presumed draft picks received when Holliday declines the arbitration offer.

The Cardinals use a prospect to add the bat they hope will provide production behind 1B Albert Pujols.  Wallace is just a year removed from Arizona State and finds himself in AAA.  With a 298/351/431 Pacific Coast League slash stat line, one wonders if the Cardinals will regret dealing him at all.

Per Pittsburgh Pirates beat writer, Dejan Kovacevic on Twitter:

Dejan_KovacevicAdam LaRoche trade close? http://bit.ly/3OA3s7

If LaRoche is dealt, does Garret Jones move to 1B and Lastings Milledge get recalled from AAA? 

Yesterday, the trade rumor that the New York Mets turned down an offer of OF Fernando Martinez, SS Ruben Tejada, lefty starter Jonathan Niese and major league rookie reliever Bobby Parnell for Toronto Blue Jays' ace Roy Halladay was tweet mongered by SI.com's Jon Heyman:

#mets rejected request of package of f-mart, niese, parnell and ruben tejada for halladay. #jays

And quickly tweet squashed by ESPN.com's Keith Law:

keithlawMets-Jays trade report (Jays offered Doc for Martinez, Tejada, Niese, Parnell) is bogus. Shot down by multiple sources.

When I saw it, I thought it looked good for the Mets given the struggles of Martinez as a pro, and, more importantly, the utter success of a similar deal the Mets made 18 months ago - Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.  None of the four players the Mets dealt for Santana have emerged as legitimate difference makers on the major league level or retained any future value as elite prospects to be used in other trades.

While my snap judgment may be wrong, I wanted to go back and review how the package of Mets' prospects dealt for Santana compared to those rumored to have been asked for by the Blue Jays.  To do so, I checked the 2008 prospects guides of Baseball America and John Sickels with ranks and grades against those of of the 2009 guides.

Initially, I was going to include just Mr. Sickels because his grading system is not depedent on the relative value of an organization's prospect depth as ranking the Top 30 prospects within an organization is.  However, the Baseball America team also ranks the 30 major league organizations against each other.  In 2008 and 2009, the New York Mets were ranked 17th overall by BA.

With that concern allayed, here are the grades and ranks for the Carlos Gomez-led package that landed Johan Santana and the Fernando Martinez-led package that could land Roy Halladay.  Based on this comparison, the Mets' decision should be easier to make.

Continue reading this post »

Today's lead article by Joel Sherman of the New York Post expresses incredulity that Omar Minaya and the New York mets' front office have not even placed a phone call to the Oakland A's front office about OF Matt Holliday.  Regardless of the Coors product's production, Holliday is still a more productive player than Danny Murphy, Nick Evans et al.

Why not?  Is it the fear that Bill Beane and Co. will ask for the equivalent of two 1st round picks?  I doubt it.  At $13.5 MM this season, there is no way the A's risk Holliday accepting arbitration given his awful production this season.  And Holliday would accept it.  Scott Boras client Kevin Millwood did the same several years ago.  Because of this, Holliday should be in the Mets price range - a couple of B/C level prospects and an arm.

Could the Mets be afraid of the same arbitration acceptance?  Possibly.  Given the front office's adherence to Bud Selig's organization crippling slotting system, an argument can be made that the improved production of Holliday versus the wasting of money signing 1st rounders falls offers a good risk/reward equation in Holliday's favor.

Or could the Mets be failing to even call the A's because of a bit of information not found in the sports pages?  On Page Six, there is a report that Mets' owner Fred Wilpon lost $700 million in the Bernie Madoff scandal - not the $300MM previously reported.

With $400MM less on the balance sheet, one can now more easily understand letting Mark DeRosa go to the Cardinals and Eric Hinske to the Yankees for prices well within the Mets' budget.

A slight break from the daily MLB trade rumors to ask about a pure fantasy baseball issue.

What is the fantasy equivalent in a $260 cap AL-Only 4x4 keeper league for a $39 Alex Rodriguez would can be protected at that salary in 2010 and 2011 with the option of raising him $5 in 2011 to keep him at $44 in 2011 and 2012?  I was asked for a $5 Matt Wieters who can be kept in 2011 and 2012 at $10 with the $5 signing occurring in 2012 for a $15 Wieters in 2012 and 2013.

Because 1st place is out of reach (23 point lead), I am not inclined to deal Wieters for ARod.  However, I am curious who would be the equivalent of Matt Wieters in an AL-only 4x4 format who could fetch ARod - if the team offering ARod was firm on the price being Wieters.

Sunday's LA Times leads its Los Angeles Dodgers' coverage with a long article by Bill Shaikin that begs the Dodgers' front office to acquire Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay with a package led by catcher Russell Martin.  I read this, with a more realistic package from the Dodgers, yesterday - on Fake Teams.

As I read Shaikin's piece, I noted this:

"This is tricky because their best young players are already in L.A. -- seven players 25 and under on the current roster, including center fielder Matt Kemp, closer Jonathan Broxton and starters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw."

What struck me is all these players will get expensive together so why not deal the ones who are not heart-and-soul of the roster types?  Specifically, the one that is unmentioned - 1B James Loney.

Adding Loney to a package led by Russell Martin plus any two minor leaguers the Blue Jays want i.e. SS Ivan DeJesus and SP Josh Lindblom would seem like an attractive package especially if the Dodgers also provide more financial freedom to the Jays by taking back 1B Lyle Overbay and the $10+ MM he is owed through 2010.

With the Toronto Blue Jays announcement that the organization will listen to trade offers for ace Roy Halladay, the rest of July will be spent tracking the various rumors concerning the perrenial CY Young candidate.  Buster Olney mentions the Los Angeles Dodgers had a scout at Halladay's start in Tampa Bay last night.  Within the linked piece was news that the Detroit Tigers, Oakland A's and Boston Red Sox had scouts on hand.

One of the four teams doesn't fit, and it had the prior big piece of trade bait in LF Matt Holliday.  Given the Blue Jays are sellers, one can easily conclude the A's were on hand to see some Tampa Bay Rays, no?

Who could the A's have been scouting on the Rays' major league roster?  Reliever Dan Wheeler?  RF Gabe Gross?  DH Pat Burrell?  The first two wouldn't compensate the A's for the two draft choices they'd get for the likely Type A free agent, but Burrell could provide some power for what now appears to be the perrenially power bereft A's.

If this is smoke, then I'd expect to see a couple of Rays' prospects included in any deal for Matt Holliday.

The back page of this morning's New York Post reads, "Roy Story: Halladay hopes grip Yanks after sweep of Twins."  So I anxiously tore through the paper to see what the New York Yankees were floating out in a trial balloon.

Nothing.  There was nothing beyond a single sentence mentioning Joel Sherman's prior days' news that the Philadelphia Phillies are considered the front runners for Halladay.  Despite that, the New York Yankees make perfect sense for a Toronto Blue Jays team building towards 2011 and looking for fiscal breathing room.

First, the Yankees have highly regarded prospects led by 19-year-old AA catcher/1B Jesus Montero.  Montero was recently ranked by Baseball America as the third best prospect in the minor leagues.   Addtionally, there are major-league ready bullpen arms like David Robertson and Mark Melancon along with major-league outfielders like Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner and major-league ready AAA centerfielder Austin Jackson.

Second, the Yankees have the financial wherewithal to add Roy Halladay's remaining $22+ million.  In these tough economic times, that cost is a serious consideration.  What other major league team can simply add that much payroll without having to make compensating moves in the off-season?

Finally, the Yankees have a 2010 need for a corner outfielder because of the expiring $13 million dollar contracts of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.  Because of this, the Yankees can take either of the Jay's other burdensome contracts - the nearly $100MM remaining on Vernon Wells' deal or the $50+MM remaining on Alex Rios's.

Can the Phillies do that?