It's hard to do anything with spring training stats, but here's an attempt to gauge who's looking good this spring and who isn't. It'll be interesting to see how these observations pan out into the next two weeks. 

Interesting things to note so far:

Fred Lewis has touched as many bags as Uribe and Renteria combined, one is expected to be DFA'd, the other two are expected to start.

DeRosa, in a third of the ABs, has matched Renteria for hits, and has more than Uribe. 

Fred Lewis, with Aubrey Huff, also leads the team in jacks. Is he finding his powerstroke or something? Huff's been hitting, but good lord is he scary with a glove.

Buster, Panda, and Bowker are leading the team in RBIs. One of them is expected to make the team. I'd be interested to see the numbers for 2-out rbis, but my connection is slow and I'm not going to look through every box score. 

Molina has walked as much or more than everyone but Bowker, and he has struck out once. What the fuck. He got off to a good start, but it remains to be seen how well he sustains it. He didn't exactly do well today. As hot as Molina is/was, his minor league not-ready-yet competition has paced him perfectly, outhitting him and driving in more runs. Buster's also thrown out more runners. But that's news to no one, probably.

Who has the most extra base hits this spring? Another non-starter: Andres Torres.

Who has the most Total bases+walks? Aaron Rowand with 20.

A quick hot or not (MLB and AAA guys):

Hot:

Rowand, Buster, Bowker, Torres, F. Sanchez (grounders baby)

Not:

Uribe and Renteria. 

I'm sure this means nothing to a lot of people, but I think some of it is interesting to at least take note of. Based off these first 13 games I hope the organization is giving some new thought to the projected lineup for opening day, but there's about three weeks left to see how things pan out.

Feel free to celebrate, gripe, qualify, append, or vomit.

While I consider myself an avid baseball fan, I've never followed the stats particularly closely. Most of my judgements of players come from what I've personally seen (TV or live) or heard (radio). So basically, I haven't much notion of the top prospects other than what's been written by secondhand sources. Unfortunately, they all use some strange stats to judge their ability.

One stat I saw on fangraphs that was used to suggest Runzler and Bumgarner (both of whom appeared solid as hell from when I've watched them pitch) aren't all they are cracked up to be is FIP. I looked it up and found this formula:

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

To me, what with all the random integer multipliers, this stat seems arbitrary when compared to ERA.  Does anyone here want to venture an explanation of how it is useful, or perhaps a more in depth explanation of the formula used to derive it?

I'd also like to open the discussion up to any stat you find particularly useful for judging hitters/pitchers that's more obscure than the classic BA/OBP/SLG or ERA. A personal favorite of mine is IP/GS for starters. It's a good indication of how much value you get from them per game.

If anyone mentions OPS they can go to hell. It's severely lazy.

It's easy to let the optimism train run out of control. Especially once spring training starts, and the enthusiasm stifled by the offseason boils over. Though I want every Giant to succeed, I know what an unlikely reality that is.

So, in lieu of sweeping optimism, here are a few things I would like to see come out of spring training this year. These, I believe are not unrealistic expectations. While Sabean appears to have forgotten how to build a team without an offensive cornerstone, and Bochy appears complacent, I think they genuinely want the team to win and have the savvy to make the right choices at least some of the time.

Here are four realistic, optimistic hopes for spring training.

Number 1: Bowker and Freddy land the reserve outfield spots over Torres and Velez.

I can understand why Velez saw so much playing time at the end of last year. He started out hitting when the team was desperate for some offensive momentum. Now that a new season begins and the players showcase their potential, I should think that Bowker and Lewis can exhibit the much larger potential they possess over the T&V vroomsquad. I hope the former two can find success in spring and make the team for opening day.

Number 2: Bruce Bochy learns to defer to Hensley Muelens. 

Perhaps this is the beat writer hype swimming in my head, but I think Bam Bam has the capability of reaching and inspiring many of the hitters on this team, like RJ did with the pitchers last year. If he does learn the hitters better than Bochy can, I hope that Bochy realizes this and swallows his managerial pride enough so that if Muelens suggests a certain player be in the lineup on a certain day, Bochy listens.

Number 3: Sanchez pitches with power, Zito with endurance.

This year I think Dirty can crack 200 Ks and Zito can crack 200IP. As long as Zito pitches deep into games and Sanchez shuts batters down for a few innings, I'll be happy. No one expects Zito to be lights out, but Sanchez, on the other hand, only seems to do well when he is. With such a strong bullpen, I doubt it would be too taxing to have them pick up the second half of Sanchez's games, provided Zito pitches 6+ innings consistently. I hope Zito finds the focus in spring to be unfazed by getting hit, and Sanchez gets comfortable leaving games early.

Number 4: The vets can find grace in less prominent roles.

The amount of declining veterans projected into the opening day lineup (2/3rds of it) is unnerving. That's a decent formula for a team built around an offensive legend, but not for one trying to grow its own offense. It was frustrating last year to watch aging ballplayers start the game and underperform and then, when the game was on the line, see the youth, badly in need of playing time, try to be heroes. This year I hope that the veterans, should it be shown they aren't outperforming their younger teammates in ST, can be relegated to utility roles. That's why I think DeRosa and Uribe were the best signings of the offseason. I hope that the unproven youth (read: Bowker, Schierholtz, Lewis, Posey)  establish themselves in spring as the preferred starters, and that the vets thrive in pressure situations.

Should these hopes assert themselves in spring, I think the season can get off to a good start. I'd be interested to know any other ST hopes you all have, or things you believe the organization should/shouldn't do to field the best lineup they can.

Caveat: I know there's a science to baseball, but I hardly understand it. It's the character of the player that captures me, which is why I like then number of vets on the team. I think that veteran influence, while not quantifiable, is significant. I also think it is equally significant when offered from the bench as from on the field. This is a team of young talent and old teachers, and the teachers need not give clinics every day.

I love the giants and want them to succeed against all else. Just because the odds are daunting doesn't mean I won't give up on the longshot chance. Crazier things have happened in this game.

This post is to remind everyone here that, while you all may be very knowledgeable of the sport and its many complex workings, our first job is to be fans. Spring Training has begun, and our role as fans shifts as we march closer to opening day. We must hang up the hat of the critic now that we've all had a chance to gripe or giggle over the perpetually dubious moves of our beloved F.O. The limelight is shifting from Sabean and Neukom to the boys in orange in black, and it is our joy as fans to cheer them as far as they can possibly go.

Sure we like to be realistic, and predict what is most likely to happen. Then we get to pat ourselves on the back and say "yep, I knew it." However, where's the joy in being a doomsday prophet? The giants are not a perfect team, but they are the team that will be playing 162 games in 2010, and we are the fans that back them. So, let's root for our gents until our voices are hoarse from hollering.

Let's look at this through rosy lenses for a minute, shall we?

Newcomers

Mark Derosa - So this guy had a rough season last year, but changing leagues is hard on people. A lot of pressure was on him coming into St Louis to support Pujols. Now, he's in a new city and with an energetic team and has spring training to make himself comfortable. I expect he'll approach his better seasons with Cleveland

Aubrey Huff - Also coming off a bad year. Also traded midseason. Unlike Derosa though, his performance is less        consistent. His career OPS, though, would place him near the top of the Giant's anemic offensive heirarchy, so  there's hope for this guy. I bet you he falls in love with China Basin and catches on like a wildfire for the second half.

Kind of returners

Freddy Sanchez - yikes, here's a spot that's tough to shine a light on. The guy's body seems like a slowly collapsing house of cards. But people bounce back from surgeries, and he certainly started strong with the giants before getting hurt. No reason to think he can't get back to his career numbers, which would make him one of the better hitters on the team.

Bengie Molina - Our, soft, lovable pincushion of hate. We were happy to see him go, but now he's back. I for one, will not be booing Bengie, and you should be ashamed if you do. The only opinion I care about as far as Bengie goes is our guy Lincecum. If he's happy Bengie's back, then so am I. The thought of his power potential in the lower half of the order isn't nearly as frustrating as relying on him as a cleanup hitter, either. Let's hope he gets tired around July and Posey gets his shot.

Vets

Barry Zito - There's nothing he can do to cease being the most overpaid pitcher in history, save win Cy youngs for the next few years, which he won't do. However, he showed great improvement last year. Some say it's a fluke, but perhaps he's learning how to pitch like a veteran. Maybe he's getting smarter on the mound, keeping his composure, and no longer pitching like the fiery young ace he was with Oakland once. I see him continuing on a trajectory of improvement, perhaps having a jamie moyer like career.

Aaron Rowand - This guy could sure use a break about now. He's most likely going to be the leadoff hitter, so let's trust the man. Sure he has a stupid looking stance, but he has decent, if streaky results. He's gonna play, so we might as well believe in the man. He's far from the worst thing to happen to the giants in recent memory.

Youngins

Jonathan Sanchez - I think we're all on this guy's bandwagon, but I just want to reiterate how awesome he is going to be this year. He's older, smarter, coming of a season where he improved and showed moments of sheer brilliance, so he's gotta be more confident. If he keeps his mechanics tight and keeps throwing hard, he'll make some all-star and Cy noise. Kid's hot, guys. Kid's hot.

Nate Schierholtz - Bare handed beast swings at backfoot sliders. But he's also got a first rate cannon and should nab quite a few intrepid baserunners. His defense is a no-brainer. He'll save some runs, and, given some time, he may start seeing the pitches better and using the pop that he's definitely got.

John Bowker - Don't stop believin! If he has a good spring he could get a chance to start in left come opening day. He'll have to be hot right out the gate to earn an everyday spot, but after a great year in AAA, I'm thinkin he'll come to China Basin with a hell of a lot more fire in him. I honestly think Bowker has the most potential of anyone else on the roster to improve the offense from last season. Here's hoping he gets his shot.

Buster Posey - This guy will be our Derek Jeter, and he will be soon. I'd be surprised if he wasn't part of the starting lineup by midseason, and I bet you as long as he's there, he'll do great and everyone around him will do great too because he's a fucking messiah, right? No pressure, kid.

Madison Bumgarner - We've had a whole offseason to fret about dropping velocity, but it doesn't seem that ominous to me that a 20 year old might get tired at the end of the season. Just like Grant said, though, he still prevented runs, still pitched with authority in the majors. I predict he'll regain his velocity, perfect a pitch or two this spring, and start the season as the #5 guy. He'll get the Lincecum treatment, so we probably won't see him past the 6th. But he'll have an impressive first season and hopefully be a part of the rotation for a long time to come.

We pretty much know what to expect from the other guys, I think. Sandoval and Lincecum will be the kings of the cove, Uribe will jazz the place up, Renteria will really have a swell farewell party. 

The offense is marginally improved, if a bit slower. If the pitching continues to be strong, and there's no reason other than skepticism to think that it won't, I predict the giants may approach 90 wins again, and maybe even find their way to the top of the National League Mehst.

This is all extremely criticizable, and might be utterly unrealistic. However, all I'm trying to say is that's the joy of being a fan! Like it or not, this is our team, so let's love them, and if they find themselves playing baseball well into October, that's only a reason to root harder. If they don't, well, we're one season closer to something like this happening:

Rodriguez

Posey

Sandoval

Neal

Joseph

Crawford

Noonan

Keischnitz

Lincecum/Wheeler/Sanchez/Cain/Bumgarner

Preface: I don't totally understand arbitration, so I may need to be corrected on a few things.

It seems to me in the Giant's best interest to offer Bengie arb. At best, Bengie is signed by another team regardless and the Giants score a draft pick (the other team's first round pick?) and can set aside the resources for somebody like Torrealba. 

Worst case scenario, other teams decline to give up a pick and Bengie returns for a year, cheap. I'm not totally opposed to that provided he bats in the bottom third and the Giants still attempt to address their dire need for guys that can get on base.

Does Bengie have to first decline arbitration to be available as a free agent? Or, if no other team signs him, he then enters arbitration talks with the giants? It's a bit confusing for me, but seems like arb is a good deal for the Giants.

so abreu rejected his extension with the angels, which means he's most likely going to shop around. since i dont see the giants getting holliday or bay, he seems like one of the best signable options at this point.

granted he is old, past his prime, has power numbers padded by a strong angels offense, and the giants have a glut of young outfielders vying to prove themselves. granted the giants have a history of overpaying and overplaying oldnbusted outfielders. however, compared to the giants average, abreu's obp completely embarasses. i heard someone from the angels organization say his plate discipline is infectious, and that sounds like a blessed epidemic for bay area baseball.

but a year or two of abreu doesnt sound like the worst thing for the offense. he could even play first base, with ishi as late inning defense hotness. let velez/schierholtz/bowker/torres mann the outfield and save garko/rowand for lincecum bodyguards and/or between inning boxing matches.

All im saying is if abreu shows up in orange and black for spring training, i wont be too upset. prove me wrong.

For those who support the idea of trading away Jonathan for a proven power hitter: Randy Johnson personally took Sanchez under his wing to help him hone his delivery and composure on the mound. If Randy Johnson, one of the best southpaws in the history of baseball, recognizes his talent, I should think the organization should take heed of that. J S showed his immense potential this season, and the giants would be wise to hang onto him.

On another RJ related note, anyone else notice the quasi-sidearm sling similarity between bumgarner and johnson?

My opening day rotation prediction is Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Zito, Penny with Bumgarner in the pen as long relief and ready to take over for anyone that can't keep up. That's world class starting pitching right there.