I think I realized how much of a fan I am of the Magic when they made the trades the other day.  Despite more than a year of evidence, I still believed that Vince and Rashard could be part of a championship team.  If I was looking at any other team, I would consider that belief horribly short sighted.  I realized what I had been missing last night as I watched the game against the Mavs.

While the numbers from last nights game were ugly for our newcomers, the eyes told a different story.  I was more excited, and more impressed, with Hedo and J-Rich than I remember being with Vince and Rashard since Vince joined the team.  This team is a mess right now, but it's a mess with lots of things that can be fixed, rather than a mess that is beyond the point where it can be fixed.  That's the difference between this team and the team we had last week.  The high and low points by player:

Jameer:  He looked very uncertain last night, but that's understandable.  Jameer's showed signs of uncertainty in the past when his position isn't secure, and he's undergoing the biggest change of any of the players from the core of the team.  Towards the end ofthe game I saw him working a little more naturally off the ball, but towards the start, he was just handing the ball to Hedo once he got to half court and hanging out.  I'm confident that he'll come around in his new role of combo guard, and expect him to be able to provide scoring punch at the wing in the shape of 3s, that long two from straight on from the pick and roll, and drives to the hoop.  I think Jameer is the second most likely candidate for drawing productive fouls behind Hedo (Dwights drawn fouls are relatively unproductive due to his FT%).

Gil:  Gil is very obviously feeling pressure, but he's also very obviously rising to the level of mental toughness and determination that was typical for him before his knee injuries.  I'm really high on the idea of this being the best opportunity for Gil to revive his career.  I believe that he has the skills and the swagger to be an absolute killer on offense.  He's not going to regain the ability to streak to the rim and finish, or draw fouls through sheer atheleticism, but Gil is only 30, and he can still shoot with the best of them when he gets his shot going.  A confident and comfortable Gilbert Arenas will command a lot of attention from opposing defenses, and he has the offensive awareness to make plays based off of that.  Defense is going to be an issue for him.  He's not very mobile when he has to change direction.  You saw it several times last night when he switched during P&Rs then had to turn and run someone off of the 3 point line.  It ain't happenin.  The sooner we, and Stan, accept that as a reality, the easier it'll be the make the necessary defensive adjustments, strategy-wise, and give Gil the support he needs to be a valuable asset to our team.

JJ:  I've got to be honest, as much as I like JJ, his game, and the amount of work he's put in for this team, I see him getting traded soon.  Teams are not that terribly interested in Duhon or J-Will, and the Magic have got to move a guard for a big.  JJ, though we'd all hate to lose him, will net us an acceptable backup to Dwight.  If he stays, he does the same Jameer does, at a less elite level.

J-Rich:  This man is going to be a killer for this team, but the team needs to make adjustments to it's offensive strategy in order to facilitate that.  J-Rich is too fast and too athletic to not be moving constantly away from the ball.  You can play a P&R offense and hope he takesthe initiative to do this on his own, and toss him some gimmes in the process, or you can start adding those screens and curls in.  The Magic have the opportunity to become much less predictable here, and more efficient in the process, but this will take more time to perfect than any other change they face.  Defensively, his rebounds, strength, and athleticism are going to make him a positive contributor.  With a little coaching and focus, I believe he has the ability to be just as much of a wing stopper as MP was.


Q-Rich:  Welcome to purgatory.  The only way to escape is to play your way out of it.  Time to find that shot.  Time to bring every ounce of energy you've got on defense.  He's probably not getting traded, but he's not going to play much unless there's an injury or he plays himself into a rotation spot like Bass did this year, and JJ did the year before.

HEDOOOOOO!!!:  It's funny to me how opinions change concerning this guy.  I think Hedo really breeds a love hate relationship with his fanbase.  He's entertaining, and talented, but he's also out of control, and I've never been convinced that Hedo is truly motivated.  He always appears lackadaisical to me.  In the past, with goofball Dwight, he fit right in.  I'd love to see him get serious this year.  I don't expect the turnovers to drop much, but this guy creates offense.  Between finding the right guy at the right time when no one expects it, hitting an above average percentage of threes, and drawing fouls, Turk is going to help this team.  I was also VERY impressed with his D on Dirk last night.  Dirk never got going, and it was because Hedo was dialed in and concentrating on bothering him.  He gave him no space for the jab step, and when Dirk fell away, Hedo was usually right there with a hand up.  The man has length.  He can use it defensively.

Bass:  Brandon is about to play the best basketball of his career.  There is no reason, with the way the ball is moving, for him to average less than 8 automatic mid-range jumpers a night.  There will be cleanup duty needed at the rim, and he is the only bruiser we've got besides Dwight.  He's going to earn this years pay and last years in the next few months.  Watch it happen.

 Ryan:  I've got a completely nuetral outlook on expectations for Ryan right now.  Coming off an underwhelming start and an injury, it may take him a while to get going at a productive level.  I think Ryan's either going to be making progress, or we're not going to see much of him.  I don't see him playing much above backup level ball this year, for this team, but the potential is still there for him to be Kevin Love light.

My name is Earl:  That nickname caught my attention on NBATV last night, and I think it's funnny.  YMMV.  I was surprised to see him play so much last night, given that he's logged so few minutes over his short career, but I was a little impressed.  He plays backup level offense, and there's tons of realistic room for improvement.  Defensively, he played Dirk ok, but Tyson Chandler abused his lack of awareness.  I'm not pinning the loss on those blunders, but a vet backup big could've saved the Magic 6-8 points last night.  Coach him up and bring him along.  This guy could be the next Gortat in a season or two (no name center to solid backup).

Dwight:  Nothing negative.  This has been his best season yet without question.  He's playing MVP level ball.  He deserves a shot at a title.  MVP caliber players do not stay with teams that don't deliver a shot at a title, regardless of how loyal they are.  The Magic need a finals appearance this year or next to have a shot at keeping Dwight unless the new CBA changes things dramatically in a way I can't currently envision. 

The Magic have a team that can develop into a title contender.  It may not happen this season.  I wouldn't be surprised if they fall in the second round this year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they accomplish the most incredible post all-star break turnaround in the history of the NBA.  This team is still up in the air, but every day since Saturday has brought me more hope.  Looking at the reads from the national sports community over the last few days indicates I'm not alone.  Despite 2 losses, opinions have been getting rosier and rosier.

This team is probably not going to play above .500 ball for the next month or two.  That should not diminish our support of the team or it's players.  We've got a club full of shooters here that deserves our hope and enthusiasm.  Win or lose, it's time to enjoy the ride, and temper expectations for a litle while.

JJ Redick is better than Vince Carter at the game of basketball.  Kelly Dwyer agrees with me.  I found it amusing that BDL sent a strong message on the subject.  When doing the top 30 positional rankings this year, they broke it down by tens.  Vince is on the title picture for the 21-30 crowd, and JJ is on the title picture for the 11-20 crowd.  I'd love for Vince to play backup minutes and come into the game with a bang every day.  Get some rest, then dunk on someone's head.  Interestingly, JJ is ranked 17th, right behind Ray Allen at 16.  I've included the links below.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Ranking-the-shooting-guards-30-through-21;_ylt=AtT4Llq35qYIXbd_RtYn_7u8vLYF?urn=nba-263585

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Ranking-the-shooting-guards-20-through-11?urn=nba-263645

It’s been a long half season for all of us, and for me, because I’ve been forced to miss out on so many Magic games (among other things, as I’ve been in Iraq).  I’ve been loving the last two weeks though, at home, and enjoying some solid basketball.  Since I’ve been gone the whole season, and have only seen the team as it is, right now, I figured I’d drop in to let everyone know what it looks like without the back-story of the first 40 or so games (or as Shane Battier might say, the Martian perspective).  It seemed I got here right as things were turning around. 

I caught the tail end of the Magic/Lakers game, right as the Magic finished their run and gave the game to the Lakers.   Everything I’ve been reading for the last few months immediately made sense.  Takeaway:  VC did not look like we expected him to at the beginning of the season; Kobe didn’t play like Kobe on offense; Matt Barnes played harder than anyone else on the court, with the exception of Kobe on defense; Dwight didn’t seem to be near as bothered by the Lakers’ length as he was in the playoffs, but they also didn’t double team him as ferociously as they did in the playoffs.  It was disappointing, and I walked away from that game scratching my head.  I read Ball Don’t Lie and OPP religiously, and knew what was going on, but it still didn’t make sense for the team I saw last year in the playoffs to look like it did.  It looked like a two to three year regression to a team that would have serious trouble in the second round.

Next up for me was the Bobcats game.  I researched it beforehand, marveling at the sudden emergence of the Cats and of the Grizzlies, two teams I’d tagged for another failing season.  Of note, I was able to see the Bobcats play the Wizards, live, at the end of last season.  I’m not sure if my vision has recovered, but I remember seeing a few plays at a time where the Bobcats knew like they understood what they were about.  Beyond that, the game looked like a high school basketball game with unusually tall and un-energetic players.  I warned my dad before the game that this would be a test for the Magic, much to his disappointment, because he believed they needed another easy one to feast off of.  I went into the game with 50/50 expectations.  Takeaway:  Jameer Nelson definitely outplayed Raymond Felton; the team, as a whole, seems to be making far fewer of the threes that they shoot, compared to last years playoffs; Dwight has not lost anything from last year, and has learned how to shoot a free throw; the Magic, VC included, can play some beautiful, dominating, stifling defense when they get their heads straight.  Let’s get this clear, Charlotte is still a second tier opponent.  They have been playing a stretch of great basketball, but that stretch doesn’t turn them into the Lakers or the Celtics.  Raymond Felton is in the midst of a career defining season as a defensive minded, efficient PG.  Jameer coming out on top of that matchup was a mild surprise for me, and a great sign that physically, he’s well.  On threes, after researching a bit, I’m convinced that the difference I saw was Shard having a cold night.  However, I should note that Vince is on pace to make just as many threes this year as Hedo did last year (regular season) and he’s shooting them at a .302 percentage, compared to Turk’s .356 last year (.386 in the playoffs).  As a team, the Cats lacked anything to contain Dwight, except denying the entry pass, and they weren’t able to do that, as good as their defense is.  By the way, Dwight shot .737 from the line from LA to Memphis.  That’s 42 out of 57 over five games.  He followed it up with a 3 of 10 outing against Boston, but it’s encouraging.  The defense against Charlotte was the real story though.  Stephen Jackson is a scoring guard/forward.  Raymond Felton is shooting .413 from deep this year.  Gerald Wallace is putting up 18 points a game this year.  All manhandled, by decent man defense by the guards (highlighting Vince for once) and absolute domination of the paint by Dwight.  The only way teams are getting inside reliably right now is to draw him away from the paint and move the ball well.  I haven’t seen any of the dribble penetration defense I was reading about a few weeks ago.  With the way the Magic offense has been hiccupping, the only times I’ve seen them in control is when they take control defensively. 

I thankfully missed seeing the Grizzlies game.  I had the same 50/50 misgivings about it.  I caught the last quarter or two on yahoo game channel, and didn’t mind.

I find it odd that every game the Magic play right now seems like a test.  I think it’s good though.  There were expectations at the beginning of the season that were not met as we’ve progressed.  Expectations are being moderated right now, and people are changing the way they view the team and the players.  It seems like the same thing is happening in Boston.  Takeaway:  KG is several years removed from the player that was a top 3 pick every year in fantasy settings; Sheed is aging rapidly, and not the intimidator he once was; the Orlando offense is mediocre for long stretches right now; the Orlando offense is better when VC is not playing; Dwight and Perkins are going to hurt each other down there sooner or later; Big Baby is not that big of a deal; Boston doesn’t seem as deep as it was last year, because it’s bench is not playing as well as it did then; J-Will and Jameer are about equal in basketball value right now; Marcin Gortat and Dwight Howard "can" work well together against the right teams and for the right reasons.  Kevin Garnett is either playing hurt, and his knees won’t ever be what they once were, or he’s not playing hurt, and his knees will never be what they once were.  He wouldn’t be a coach’s pick for all-star starter.  He has regressed to the level of crafty veteran non-all star, much like Shaq and Sheed.  This means that having him back isn’t going to suddenly mean the Magic are playing a better team than they did in the ’09 playoffs.  Sheed is pretty slow, but still has length, which makes him an excellent situational defender.  He’s not going to keep up with Rashard for a whole game, and his help defense is pretty much gone.  He also looks a little chubby.  Orlando’s offense is not the machine that it was last year in the playoffs.  The ball movement is not there.  I watched the Celtics swing it around and dump it down low several times, and thought to myself, the Magic used to move the ball like that.  Things looked a little better with J.J. and Marcin Gortat in the fourth.  Part of this is that J.J. is playing great basketball.  A bigger part of that is that Vince was on the bench.  If anyone had posited before the season that Orlando would even consider starting J.J. Redick and bringing VC off the bench, we would have all dismissed it fairly quickly.  I have to say that I’m in favor.  For that matter, I’m in favor of a trade.  I’m in favor of a trade, because after watching these last few games, and reading everything that’s been written this year, it seems apparent that Vince Carter is not a good fit for the Orlando Magic on offense.  I believed that he would be, but the evidence does not support that.  Vince was supposed to be a trade up, in individual offensive production from Hedo.  I distinctly remember someone from the Magic (I believe Stan) stating that what Vince brought to the team was the ability to always find a quality shot.  The Magic wanted a closer.  They wanted someone to trust the ball with at the end of the game.  They wanted a clutch three, or a drive and a great pull up jumper that left the defenders whiffing.  Vince Carter has a career of highlight reels that indicate that he’s capable of that, even at his advanced (basketball) age.  He also has a number of fantastic box scores that infer that he’s capable of taking over games.  His fans in New Jersey highly recommended him.  If we look at New Jersey now, we can see that he’s sorely missed.  Highlight reels and box scores don’t tell the whole story.  There are players that make great plays and then there are players that are consistently great.  I believe that Vince Carter belongs with the former.  I believe that he had a standout year in Jersey, and that, if returned to a poor young squad with little help around him, Vince could shine once again.  I don’t feel that there is likely to be marked improvement in his play between now and the playoffs, but I could be wrong.  I think Orlando is the wrong fit for Vince Carter, as much as the other way around.  If the Magic could trade him to a club that really needs some help (ala Stephen Jackson to Charlotte) I think Vince could provide them great value.  If not, I suggest Stan start looking at how to strategically use Vince so that he limits his effects on the rest of the squad, and on the overall game.  Vince, properly motivated, can play great defense.  Vince can make great passes, but isn’t.  I don’t know if that can be helped from Stan’s end.  Your mileage may vary.  Moving past Vince, Dwight and Perk were really going at it when Orlando was on offense.  I wasn’t sure how far contact of that extent was legal, but fouls weren’t called, and I guess you’ve got to let the big boys use their muscles sometimes.  I was very impressed with Dwight’s confidence.  Perk has given him a very hard time in the past.  I remember how many of those running hooks airballed in the playoffs.  To see several of them go in (even if the rattled around some) was great.  Dwight’s not going to go 8 for 12 regularly with Boston, but 6 or 7 of 12 is acceptable, and it makes him a weapon.  If he can draw a lot of fouls, all the better.  He doesn’t have to make all of his free throws to be effective.  Especially against teams that have a hard time guarding him, racking up fouls against their big men helps, and puts the rest of the team in a position where they can pick up a lot of bonus free throws.  Big baby is not worth the money he was asking for during this last free agency.  He’s a decent role player, but that is the end of it.  Boston doesn’t have the seemingly endless bench that it did last year in the playoffs.  It helped that they were picking up fouls quickly.  They’ve got a lot of the same players, and Eddie House was again a factor, but they just weren’t all that effective.  This is bad news for Boston, because KG and Allen (and probably Paul Pierce) need some rest.  Jameer Nelson is having short flashes of his brilliance from last year.  I think we’re close to seeing a breakout game from him.  Jason Williams makes me feel like we’ve got a backup that we can trust to run the team in Jameer’s absence, not just rely on for a few minutes of rest for our starter.  I think both of them provide about equal value right now, from what I’ve seen.  Jameer is a little more combo.  Jason is a little more traditional.  It allows for Stan to have options.  Different opposing defenses, different approaches to running the game.  Also if either of them is having an off night, so be it.  The other gets a little more run.  I think this 50/50 or 60/40 arrangement seems to work well for both of them.  It probably also keeps both of them in better shape, since neither is exactly made of steel.  Dwight and Marcin looked great together.  The score shows that the Magic picked it up on offense in the fourth, but I could have sworn it was on defense.  Watching Marcin swat the ball away from KG three times in a row was an absolute joy.  You could see that he was jumping out of his skin to prove himself.  Marcin’s European.  He says he can shoot, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  We’ve seen Dwight knock down jump shots.  If the two of them can work from opposite sides of the basket, I firmly believe they can work together on offense.  I’ll at least say this.  The Magic looked better with Marcin and Dwight on offense than with Vince being out there.  On defense is where it really showed though.  Teams can draw Dwight away from the rim.  He is mobile, and can jump out of the gym, so a lot of times he can still get back, but watching the two of them roaming the paint was just beautiful.  I play PF.  I know what it feels like to have another big presence inside on defense with you, and it’s great.  It is so intimidating to know that one of those guys is going to come flying out of nowhere, and you can’t reliably shoot the ball high enough to get it out of their reach.  As I said before, defense is where the Magic are making their money right now.  Their offense doesn’t look that hot for long stretches.  I propose that the value of Marcin and Dwight on defense, right now, is far higher than their conflicts on the other end of the court.  Nuff said.

I’m off folks.  I’ll be back in the fall, and regularly contributing again.  Take care.

I saw this thought on another forum.

Gortat for Lee in December if Lee signs a one year deal with NY, which is appearing more likely by the day.

I've always loved Lee, for one, so understand that this post comes with a serious mancrush.  That aside, we're talking about one of the best rebounders in the NBA at any size, that's got some good athleticism.  He can finish, and play pretty decent D, and he's young.

NY likes Marcin Gortat.  That much has been previously attested to.  They need a center.  Eddy Curry is one of the biggest (in literal and figurative terms) emabrrassments in the NBA.  Too harsh?  Remember where he was drafted, and watch him fade into history before his 6th year in the NBA.  It's not going to be because of a career ending injury either.

I think the contracts will probably look similar.  My question is, how would Lee fit.

74% of his shot attempts are inside shots (82games), and he doesn't shoot the three... at all...  He shoots .355 on his 2 pt jump shots.  He was a more prolific (3 per 48 for Lee, 1.9 per 48 for Howard), but less efficient (2.6 Ast to TO for Lee, 3.4 for Howard) passer than Dwight.  He does pick up 10% of all available rebounds, but, all in all, I don't see him helping much on the offensive end with Dwight in the game. 

 His per of 19.07 puts him 9th among power forwards, ahead of Paul Millsap, Chris Anderson, and David West, but comments around NY indicate that he's a hindrance on defense.

With those thoughts in place, I'll make the case that the Magic should look elsewhere, despite the hypse, and his great rebounding numbers.

We've all been looking close at the FAs and thinking about how much it would take to sign them.  I'm starting to wonder what the actual pool of money out there looks like.  Lets have a look at the teams in the east, and what they're planning to sign this summer.

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In no way shape or form are any of these options being discussed between the Magic and any of these teams, to my knowledge.  I've simply compiled a list of desirable backup big men, and a list of teams that could use Rafer's services.  Let's match em up, and then shoot at the results until a picture makes sense.

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Pretty sure it was in the second quarter (I'm on a business trip, so I couldn't DVR the replay.)...  Pietrus took the hit on his way to the hoop and Rondo got a good leap for what looked like a block, in addition to the foul.  Replay indicated that the ball touched glass before Rajon trapped it.  The goaltend was not called, and Pietrus missed both free throws. 

Had it been called, arguably, the Magic would have won the game.  A day or two after the NBA botched a late game foul call for the Mavs, this looks pretty ugly to me.  Just sayin...

I was truly inspired by squids opinions on the matter.  =)  I'm not nearly as worked up over it, but that's because I pretty much stopped actively watching the game before it happened, then DVRed back and forth over the incident in slo-mo a few times to make sure I knew what happened.

I'm a little annoyed with Skip for doing something so silly.  (And honestly, it was silly.  If you're going to hurt someone out of frustration, whether that frustration is from getting dogged or from get dirty elbow, shove the guy, or throw him into a scorers table.)  But, I'm not surprised.  Skips been known to participate in knuckleheaded activity before.  I believe he had some trouble with the law towards the beginning of this season in Houston.  It's my impression that his behaviour in Orlando has been considerably more mature than in previous stops during his career.

I'm more annoyed with Eddie House.  His comments after the game were unnecessarily inflamatory.  I saw an elbow from my angle.  I don't think it was a planned elbow.  I think he was going to run into Skip either way, because he didn't realize where he was when he turned around, but decided to rub it in when he did.

And even though the little roller disco punk didn't have anything to do with today's incident, I pretty much despise Rondo's attitude, and the way the NBA has empowered him, and the rest of the Celtics, to live off of this gang mentality.  I don't remember much from the Bad Boy lakers years, other than who was involved, but I've noticed some pretty nasty flagrants this year, and Boston has been at the forfront of the majority of them.  I was incensed that Dwight got suspended for his elbow and Rondo got off for a slap on Brad Miller and the Heinrich incident.  I'm not saying Dwight shouldn't have been suspended, it was clearly an elbow aimed above the shoulders.  I'm saying Rondo has been clearly far more violent than any other player in this years playoffs, and it's out of control.  I fully expect this issue ot come up during this series, and if the league does not stop it now... 

Is he overpaid?  Considering that he's a borderline all-star and compared to other players of equivalent talent and experience, probably.  Is he worth it?  Based on his performance last night, I'd say yes.  We have to remember that Lewis changed his game quite a bit when he came to the Magic.  He plays around Dwight now, not vice versa.  I'm of the opinion that he's an equivalent talent with his former teammate, Ray Allen.  I think both fellas proved they can still get it done when faced with a depleted oster around them last night.

Bring on the Bulls!

Everybody seems enamored with Udonis Haslem, but I'm not convinced he's the answer for the Magic at PF.  First off, Lewis has done much better at the position this year than last year, defensively.  Secondly, in the event they lose Hedo over the summer (although I truly hope they don't), I think Marcin Gortat can put up Haslem-like numbers at the four spot without any problem.  He's younger, and taller, and rapidly developing.  I see Gortat developing into a great role player at the four or five spot through his career.  Naysayers can reference the decision to keep Bo Outlaw over Big Ben.