SB Nation User Blog: fargocraig1971

Idea for feature

fargocraig1971 — Wed, 21 Feb 2007 15:57:32 -0000

John - Have you thought about doing a series of top prospects by position? Something similar to what you did with the team lists...I think it would be another interesting perspective that a lot of people would find useful. (It's possible to figure out such a list for pitchers and outfielders from the top 50's, but at the positions where only 3-6 players make the cut, it would be interesting to see a more extensive list. Maybe this is a better idea for future editions of the book than for the website.)

If anyone else has their own lists of top players by position, I think it would make for some interesting discussion as well...

Old player skills = short career?

fargocraig1971 — Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:35:23 -0000

It seems like you hear a lot these days about how players with "old players' skills" - i.e. drawing walks, hitting for power, and generally being on the easy side of the defensive spectrum - tend to have short careers and flame out early. I know there are a lot of anecdotal examples of this (Ben Grieve immediately comes to mind), but what I am wondering is, does anyone know of an actual analysis or study that has been on this topic?

I guess what I am asking is, is there any sort of quantification of this phenomenon? It doesn't do any good to point at a player after he's flopped and say "that's because he had old players' skills." I'm more interested in what the future holds for the Conor Jacksons and Billy Butlers of the world.

Two unrelated questions for John

fargocraig1971 — Tue, 21 Feb 2006 16:39:37 -0000

Hey John, 2 quicks questions for ya:

I apologize if this has been asked, but if BJ Upton hadn't played in the bigs in '04 and thus still qualified for your book, where would he rank on the Top 50 Hitters list, and what sort of grade would he have?
Have you considered doing a ranking of prospects by position? It's pretty easy to go through your pitcher list and do this...but it might be fun to see how you'd rank the top, say, 10 catchers, shortstops, etc. Everyone loves lists, after all! Another idea might be prospects by league. I know it would mean more work for you, but I'm sure it would generate a lot of interest as well.

Thanks!

Ballpark effects

fargocraig1971 — Thu, 19 Jan 2006 17:12:31 -0000

Does anyone know of an online resource that lists ballpark effects (preferably both majors and minors)?

I always see references to these and know some of the obvious "common knowledge" ones but it would be nice to see an actual statistical source.

Projecting Power Growth

fargocraig1971 — Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:11:00 -0000

One question I haven't seen addressed as a result of whole steroids controversy is the effect it will have on projecting power growth for players, both as minor leaguers moving up to the bigs, and on major leaguers moving into the later stages of theirs careers.

To clarify, it seems to me that "back in the day", players were not routinely expected to develop power if they didn't show it early - power seemed to be considered a tool (like speed) that you just couldn't teach. A good example is Jeff Bagwell - the Sox certainly didn't anticipate his power surge when they traded him. (Not to imply that Bagwell used steroids; just an example to illustrate the point).

Throughout the past decade or so though, it seems to have almost become a given that many players DO have the potential to develop power. I guess my question is, should the crackdown on steroids change this expectation back to the view that power increases should not be expected? I'm not accusing anyone in particular of using steroids, but should we expect to see fewer power surges from youngsters new to the bigs, or from veterans who suddenly develop power in their 30's? I know younger players sometimes "fill out", but how much of the phenomenon over the past decade or so has been due to steroids?

Statistical Analysis Questions

fargocraig1971 — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 20:07:53 -0000

I'm no stats expert, but there are a couple of methodological questions I've been curious about and thought I'd throw out there to get feedback on:

Why is OPS never considered when rating pitchers? It's become the de facto uberstat for rating batters, but it seems to me that if it is relevant to hitters, it should be relevant to pitching as well. Even if you consider it somewhat out of a pitcher's control (perhaps due to defense, park effects, randomness of balls put into play), it still seems more relevant than h/ip...heck, even opponent slugging % alone would seem more relevent than h/ip. Am I missing something here?
Is there such a thing as skill in being hit by pitches, and should it be included in analysis? I realize that for 98% of players the numbers involved are pretty insignificant...but there are some guys who consistently get plunked at rates that make me think they stand out there and insult the pitchers' mothers. Don Baylor is the classic example, but there are current players whose HBP rates should seem to warrant mention as well (eg. Shea Hillenbrand was hit 12 times last year - half of his walk total; over his career he's got 37 HBP and 86 BB).

I look forward to hearing people's thoughts on these ideas!