Here is a quick analysis of returning "starters" for next year's Red River Rivalry. It assumes Landry Jones and Kenny Vaccaro stay for their senior years. Just based on this very crude line up, it appears TX will be in for a tough match up again next year.

TX will need to beat OU on the player development front and get big time contributions from Freshmen and/or Redshirt Freshman to have a shot. Brick by brick fellas, brick by brick.

The analyis excludes some of our special package starters like Goodwin and Monroe.

Hi Horns Fans,

Amidst the swirl of anger pouring out from me after the UCLA game, I wanted to pull some data to help me understand why I felt so strongly that Greg Davis should be fired, NOW!.  I consider myself to be a rational person for the most part, but I am quite irrational when it comes to my love for the Texas Longhorns and my love for winning every game, every season.

Before I replied to any more posts confirming that, "yes, I too want Davis fired", I wanted to be sure there was some rational data to support why I held such strong feelings.

Here is the data I pulled. The Wtd Average Ranking represents the weighted average rank of Total Offense & Defense (Yardage) and Total Scoring Offense and Defense (Points). I found this the fairest measure to evaluate our coaches. It is not perfect for many reasons, but it's a decent measure of coaching effectiveness.

source: cfbstats.com through 9/25/10 (the UCLA game is included)

Analysis:

1) Obviously it's quite clear why I want Davis fired right now. His Wtd Offense ranking of 73 through 4 games is the lowest of any coach on offense or defense at UT in the past 7 years. Now, to be fair, Davis has several games left to right the ship, but I understand now why I'm pissed. The data supports my feelings...yippee!

2) The "hot seat" for a Texas coach in the eyes of fans is probably any rank over 25 for the defense and any rank over 10-13 for the offense (I couldn't quite recall our feelings toward Greg in each year...if you know...then post in the comments). While I hate to admit it, we appear to hold Greg Davis to a higher standard than our defensive coahces. Get used to it Greg, we're Texas, and we want to score lots of points.

We also prefer coaches who work from the sidelines during games, who demonstrate passion in their postgame interviews, coaches who preach accountability, and coaches who are generally charismatic. I don't doubt that all these factors contribute to our "pitch fork" mentality when it comes to Greg Davis. He just hasn't built a great rapport with the fan base and doesn't seem to care to.

3) We apparently gave Will Muschamp a pass from the "hot seat" in 2008 when his defense ranked 35th, presumably because he demonstrated substantial improvement over the Akina/Duff debacle in 2007. Not to mention, he has all the intangible qualities that fans love. Greg could learn a lot from Will on how to build rapport with the TX fans.

I have some concerns about the team and coaching staff that are making me concerned about our next few games. I was watching the game somewhat haphazardly yesterday so I am sure some of these are incorrect or irrational. Let me know what you think.

1) I think our Punt Returners are going to lose 3+ more fumbles this year and cost us a game. Aaron Williams does not appear to be a natural punt returner and doesn't seem to deserve time at that position. He has already cost us one big turnover against Rice and he never really looks comfortable fielding the punt. Even after he catches the ball, he doesn't seem to have great return skills despite above average speed. Based on productivity and apparent comfort fielding punts, I think Curtis Brown should be the guy ...even though he doesn't appear completely natural returning punts either.

The coaching staff should have prepared Desean Hales or DJ Monroe or some other fast, shifty role player to be THE Punt Returner for this year. Major fail to have our star CBs fielding punts (despite mediocre return skills), risking injury and potentially causing turnovers. I was OK with Shipley returning punts last year because he was an elite talent at the postion...so the risk of injury was tolerable given the upside.

2) I think our coaching staff has done a poor job of evaluating and recruiting Running Backs in the last 3 years or so. This probably surprises no one. I actually love our guys, but I'm absolutely jealous of about 100 other backs I see in other programs. Any coach who thought Chris Whaley had a high probability of being be an elite talent at RB was just ignoring all the data. There are only a handful of backs in history with Whaley's leg length and mediocre speed who have been succesful at RB. What a waste of a scholly (no offense Chris) and what a high opportunity cost since we had to pass on other Rbs to get him.

Now we're stuck with guys who should be role players...Newton and Cojo..and one small dynamic back who should be a 3rd down specialist...Fozzy.

3) I think there is a large contingency of fans here on BON who ignore point #2 below when they say confidently Malcolm Brown is going to be the starter and savior at RB next year. Let's set aside OL and scheme issues for a second.

First, in any situation it is highly unlikely for a freshman RB to start and/or dominate. 2nd, look at our track record over the past 3 years in terms of RB recruiting and freshman RBs earning playing time. There is a high probability that Malcolm Brown will not start as a freshman and will not outperform an upperclassman even if he gets some carries. I'm just hoping some BON'ers will start to think more rationally about Malcolm Brown and his potential contributions as a freshman.

Ahhh...that felt good to write out.

Dear Rick,

As a loyal fan of TX Basketball, I thought I would write you an open letter with my expert suggestions for an experiment you should consider for your struggling team. It is very simple and begins with a modification of your starting line up as follows:

PG - Avery Bradley

SG - Jordan Hamilton

SF - Damion James

PF - Gary Johnson

C - Dexter Pittman

On offense, let AB find himself as the PG and leader of our team. He has the requisite balance of speed, handles, court vision, and shooting accuracy that will no doubt make him an excellent PG and an upgrade over our other PGs who are lovable but have noticeable limitations.  AB has  also demonstrated the ability to handle the responsibilities of on-the-ball defense.

Jordan Hamilton will no doubt continue to frustrate with his questionable shot selection and defensive lapses, but he offers valuable potential as a rebounder and 3-point shooter. His value will increase also with the offensive and defensive changes I suggest below.

Damion James - This line up change will have the most impact on Damion as he will be requested to begin offensive sets on the wing. As a serviceable 3-point shooter and some ability to get to the bucket, he should be fine. We will see an increase in turnovers but i think on the whole our offensive and defensive efficiency will increase with Damo on the wing.

Gary Johnson - Gary deserves more minutes that he is currently getting. While Gary's game is not pretty, it is efficient. We will have Gary at the PF spot working the hi-lo game with Dexy as well as contributing a few mid range jumpers, a few put backs, and few dribble drives to the rack and FTs. Welcome to the starting line up sir.

Dexter Pittman - Business as usual for Dexy at the center position, however the changes to the line up should have the most positive impact on his game. With serviceable perimeter shooters now filling all of our guard and wing positions, team will no longer be able to sag on Dexy with impunity. Welcome back to the land of 20pts and 10reb a game for the big fella.

On offense, the game plan gets simple. Put Hamilton on Dexter's side and teach Jordan how to make a post entry pass. If the defender gives him a 3 and sags on Dex, then fire away. If their doubling Dex, reverse the ball through GJ at the top. He looks for Dex across the lane and then reversses to Damo and flashes to the hole. Yada Yada yada. The best thing on offense is that we now potentially have the best offensive rebounding team in the nation and the floor spacing should be much better given the presence of shooters on the outside.

On defense, swallow our immense pride and go to a 2-3 zone. This has the noticeable upside of protecting Jordan Hamilton who currently lacks the elite level of floor awareness and lateral movement needed for man defense. In a zone scheme with this new starting line up, we have the length and quickness to be devastatingly effective.

I am curious what the BCS polls would look like #1-#8 if voters cast their ballots for the best teams based on their feelings of who would win a game on a neutral field right now (and ignoring the records of the teams). Below is what my "Who beats who" poll would like. What would your poll look like?

#1 Florida - they look dominant right now. I don't know if anyone could beat Florida 6 out 10 on a neutral field right now.

#2 OU - I hate em, but I do feel they would beat us 6 times out of 10. Thus I rank em ahead of us.

#3 TX - My #3-#6 are all close, but I feel like TX gets the nod given how much our defense is improving (and I'm a homer). If our offensive execution had not seemingly dipped significanlty recently, I would put us ahead of OU.

#4 Tx Tech - I'm still not fully sold on Tech although their last 2 victories have been impressive. Still, I feel like Tech has always beat everyone on their own turf. If they beat OU, I bump them to #1b with Florida.

#5 USC - Since this is a "Who beats who" poll, I'm (probably stupidly) ranking USC high since they seem to gear up and play well in big match ups against other highly ranked opponents.

#6 Alabama - may seem low, but they've had trouble putting points on the board and have a relatively soft schedule with their "big victories" coming over Georgia who's looking like fools gold and barely beating LSU whose current QB who looks like a highschool JV back up . Maybe they'll prove me wrong and beat Florida.

#7 Ok st - I think they're better that what they played versus Tech

#8 Penn St - Offensive execution has been poor of late (much like our Horns), but the defense is stout. If they played bama, it would be a 0-0 game.

1) Jeremy Maclin looked like he was trying to point shave or throw the game last night. I know that's a serious accusation, but if you go back and watch tape of the game you'll know what I mean. He wasn't outrunning defenders after making catches and on a few kick returns he seemed to be running right into the backs of his own teammates. He also dropped a kickoff. I remember watching the whole game thinking ... is Maclin trying to shave some points here? Strange.

2) Chase Daniel's arm strength looks well below average. He wasn't stepping into his throws last night and his passes were ripe for the pickin'.

3) We should let the grass grow long this week at DKR (ala ND vs USC from 2005) to neutralize Mizzou's speed and let this game be won by the big uglies upfront.

4) Chase Coffman's propensity to hurdle defenders on the TE screen is cute, but will end up in either an injury or a fumble soon. He has gotten a little too enamored with that move and a fast defense will take advantage of the time he loses in the air to swarm and destroy.

5) While he has been solid in his career, Mizzou's place kicker missed two big kicks last night. Hopefully we can hold them to FG attempts this coming Saturday.