In the most frustrating times of being an FC Dallas fan over the last 12 months, it has been helpful to think about the long-term for this club rather than stewing over recent failures. After all, the United States Soccer Federation ranked FC Dallas Academy as the best development program in the country, and academy prospects and graduates are routinely called into youth national teams. Not enough pedigree for you? Check out Top Drawer Soccer's national youth player rankings. FC Dallas has at least one player in the top fifteen for graduation years 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 (their highest player in 2014 is "only" 31st nationwide).

With that in mind, let's look at all the players who have a real chance of being MLS contributors in 2015. First, a list of everyone under 27 who is either a current FC Dallas player likely to stick around until 2015 and/or an FCD Academy product with youth national team experience (2015 age in parentheses). The oldest of this group shouldn't decline much, and it is likely that some of the youngest will improve greatly over the next 3 years.

Forwards: Ruben Luna (23), Jonathan Top (22), Daniel Garcia (21)
The first two have experience on their youth national teams and show real promise in reserve matches. Both could well be dangerous MLS strikers by 2015, and it would be quite surprising if neither panned out. Garcia has been in multiple youth national team squads, and has good odds of being at least a useful sub in a couple years.

The rest of the potential 2015 roster and analysis after the jump:

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Last night, a team in red hoops was flying around the pitch, probing the final third, and ultimately put its finishing together to blow out a quality opponent. Then we all quit splitting our attentions between the US 5 - Scotland 1, and an at-the-time scoreless FC Dallas-Real Salt Lake match. I'd rate last night's game as the worst gut punch of the season so far (with plenty of competition), because it had a rare ingredient. Hope.

Dallas had its chances last night, and deserved a draw. Then, in the dying seconds, Zach Loyd was pulled down by his shirt as he tried to clear the ball, and it fell to Nat Borchers, who buried it in the back of the net. Yeah, there were other goals, draws, calls, non-calls, and passes to discuss, but I just don't have the time or the energy to go into any more detail this morning.

How about I work with you guys to put the meat of the match recap in the comments section over the course of the day?

Today the standings on mlssoccer.com show FC Dallas 7th in the Western Conference, and only 3 points out of the all-important fifth and final playoff spot. Don't get a false sense of optimism from that sentence, because it is quite misleading. Dallas has played 2 or 3 more games than all of their playoff competitors, and thus squandered more opportunities to pick up points, and are left with less chances to make up ground.

Points Per Game (PPG) is a much more accurate way to show a club's real standing when unequal numbers of matches have been played. Below, I calculated PPG and Goal Differential Per Game (GDPG) for the Western Conference. Also, I added in a very simple metric for how many PPG each club probably needs to have a good chance at making the playoffs. I set the playoff point target at 46, since Sports Club Stats' simulations give every Western club 50+% chance to make the playoffs at that level (certainly possible the actual cutoff will be higher or lower, but it should be in that neighborhood). Thus I calculated "PPG needed" by subtracting current points from 46 and dividing that by 34 minus games played.

More numbers and implications after the break.

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Scratching the chalkboard is a new feature where Daniel Robertson and Steve Fenn look at a few different interesting notes from the OPTA chalkboard following the game. If you're not familiar, the OPTA stats are advanced numbers that track every pass, shot, etc...and you can find them by going to the MLS Matchcenter for the particular game and clicking on chalkboard. Click to enlarge any image for a larger version.

Steve's first observation: Outside of set pieces, Leyva needs to do more

We're all excited to see that Bryan Leyva looks poised to take set piece duties away from Daniel Hernandez. Let get that out of the way immediately. The kid created 3 chances on 5 corners, which is worth getting excited about. But, let's remove those set pieces, and see what he contributed in the run of play. He only had 8 successful passes, and lost possession 11 times. If you normalize everyone's heat score (measuring the amount of ground they covered) to 90 minutes, Leyva's was only 67, which is better than only Hartman's 46 and Blas' 47. None of those numbers are as anemic as Castillo and Jackson's lazy day in Columbus, but they're not great either. I get that he's only 20, the set pieces are exciting, and that he gave an effort on defense for once. Dallas needs more from their wings in the run of play than Leyva provided on Saturday, though. However, he did enough to warrant more opportunities amidst all the injuries and suspensions this week. If he doesn't step up a little more, he might not get off the bench much after a couple of teammates become available again.

Keep reading

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Opta statistics are opening up many new ways to evaluate MLS, and thankfully some sharp analysts are very generous with their finding. Devin Pleuler runs a regular column on mlssoccer.com called Central Winger in which he breaks down the game empirically in new and interesting ways. The other day he ran a column on pass completion broken down by field location. When I asked for an FC Dallas breakdown, he was nice enough to generate and send me such a file that night.
Below is a visualization of 2012 MLS clubs' passing overall, followed by FC Dallas alone. The only change I made to Devin's graph was adding a grid and labels to make discussion easier. Circle size is a measure of the number of passes originating in that region, and bright green means high percentage, while dark red is low percentage. Teams attack right to left (10 to 1).

All of MLS in 2012:

FC Dallas in 2012:

Analysis after the jump:

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Pittsburgh isn't a good place to be an FC Dallas fan. 90% of the populace are Steelers zealots, who sometimes tolerate hockey and baseball. When I tell someone that "I occassionaly contribute to a blog dedicated to my favorite MLS club, FC Dallas," they likely won't even recognize 3 of those terms. There are some advantages to my location, and among them is the occassional chance to see my favorite sports teams in hostile confines. Even when the results of such a match are frustrating, for me the journey and atmosphere are more memorable than any other sports experience.

The Drive:

I set out Saturday afternoon with my friend, Bear, who was an excellent travel buddy. We had a fun drive talking about our expectations for the match and our soccer. Bear was a goalie in high school, and coached and refereed youth soccer after that. He's not a fan of any MLS club in particular but is such a fan of soccer that he bought MLS Live this year just so he can pull up a match any time he wants on his iphone.
After 200 miles we arrived at the house of another friend, Michael, who had dinner ready ready for us soon after arrival. After all that time on the road, it was great to have a meal that didn't come from a drive-thru or a concession stand. Like Bear, Michael had played much more soccer than me at a young age, and it was fun to get both their perspectives throughout the evening. After getting shooed away from a free parking (darned police dissuading people from walking across train tracks!), we got through traffic and found got to the stadium with 30 minutes to spare.

The Ground:

Crew Stadium is the first soccer specific stadium ever built in this country. It's construction in the winter of 98-99 cost $28mm, which was funded entirely by Lamar Hunt (Houston's new BBVA stadium is being lauded for only costing $95mm). The US is undefeated in 6 World Cup Qualifiers played there, including La Guerra Fria and 2 others against Mexico that all ended dos a cero. A UK magazine, Stadia, named Crew Stadium the most influential stadium of the 21st century. Up until recently the settings of soccer matches in this country were decided almost entirely by convenience, so when I sat in those modest steel bleachers, I looked out on the most storied pitch in the history of US Soccer.

When we first saw Crew Stadium from the highway, Bear said, "Well, that's not what I expected." He had envisioned a more polished, impressive edifice. Crew Stadium always reminds me of Clark Field in Plano, where I played a little football in middle school and high school. To get Crew Stadium built for $28mm, it seems every expense was spared, and basic, utilitarian design was the order of the day.I don't say any of that to trash the place, it's just the way it is, and is kind of charming once you get used to it. For me, the steel stands are emblematic of the whole structure, because they are so basic, but make a huge noise even when only a modest crowd is stomping on them. The Hudson Street Hooligans to the East of the stage lead everyone in chanting and jumping up and down at appropriate times, and the reverberations of their din gets everyone else into the match very well.

After the jump: my in-stadium observations of the match

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Obviously, we're all concerned with the Mavs' offseason at this point. Cuban will have cap space to work with for the first time as an owner. So, who can he get with it?

Looking over Hoops World's list of 2012 Free Agents I see quite a few quality, unrestricted or player options available:
- Point Guard:
Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
Aaron Brooks, Phoenix Suns
Raymond Felton, Portland Trail Blazers
Kirk Hinrich, Atlanta Hawks
Andre Miller, Denver Nuggets
Chauncey Billups, L.A. Clippers
Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic
George Hill, Indiana Pacers
Leandro Barbosa, Indiana Pacers
Goran Dragic,, Houston Rockets

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4/26: Unless the Mavs beat Atlanta and the Nuggets lose to Minnesota played concurrently tonight), Dallas' first round opponent will be OKC. The odds of that scenario are placed at 15.4%, but who knows how hard the Mavs, Hawks, Nuggets, or Wolves will play in this situation?

4/25: In the last couple days, OKC and LAL have clinched 2nd and 3rd, but the Mavs and Nuggets remain 50/50 for 6th. If Denver wins tonight, they get 6th unless they lose to some very beat up T'wolves with nothing to play for tomorrow. If OKC wins, the Mavs can clinch 6th with a win over Atlanta.

4/23: Suddenly, Dallas and Denver are locked in the closest seeding battle in the NBA. The winner gets to avoid OKC, in favor of a Lakers team that will presumably be missing the yahoo formerly known as Artest. The Mavs own the tiebreaker over Denver, but also one more loss right now. Sportsclubstats says Dallas will be 6th seed 50.063% of the time, and Denver takes it in all other scenarios. The Mavs have to lose one less game than the Nuggets the rest of the way. Both teams losing out would actually do it, but since Denver plays hopeless and beat up Minnesota in the finale, that seems unlikely. For Dallas to have a realistic chance at 6th, they really need OKC to beat Denver on Wednesday. Unfortunately, that will be the second night of a back-to-back for a Zombie Sonics squad that will likely be locked into 2nd by that point. That looks to be the most important non-Mav game around Dallas this season. Big seeding implications, and a potential first round opponent.

4/20: Houston's loss last night clinched the playoffs for Dallas. Sportsclubstats is still worth monitoring to gauge the chances they'll face different opponents in the first round. Right now, the Lakers are easily the most likely at 66.2%. The Spurs, Zombie Sonics, Clippers, and Grizzlies are 5%, 19.4%, 8.1%, and 1.3% respectively. The chances of facing OKC become 52% if the Mavs go 0-3. Looks certain they'll have a rematch of last year's 2nd or 3rd round.

4/19: If you find someone that is dumb enough to bet you that the Mavs will miss the playoffs, take their money. Even if Dallas goes 0-3, 2 of Utah, Phoenix, and Houston would have to win out, and Denver would need to finish 2-2. 99.9% (not figurative, that's the actual odds from Sportsclubstats.com) that the Mavs are in.

4/17: Once again, the Mavs are still very much in control of their destiny despite a tough OT loss. 95.9% in, but their 6th seed odds are slipping (45% 6th, 40% 7th, 11% 8th). 1 win should still be enough. Beating Houston coupled with a loss for Phoenix, Utah, or Denver might clinch, or at least land in the 99.?% range.

4/16: As disconcerting as yesterday was, it didn't hurt the Mavs; playoff odds or potential seeding all that much, Still 97.9% in and 64% 6th seed or better. Does anyone expect this team to go 0-5 to finish the season? That's probably what it would take for them to be fishing in 2 weeks. FYI, a win tonight against the Jazz would get them really close to clinching.

4/14: Along with an ugly win of their own, the Mavs finally got help from the other playoff contenders. The good, old guys are now 97.8% to make the playoffs. 1-6 over the last seven and they'd still be 91.8%. Heck, even 0-7 could be enough, but let's hope it doesn't come to that. The main focus at this point should be at least holding onto 6th (69% to do so).

4/13: After dispatching Golden State, the Mavs are 89.7% to avoid 9th or 10th place. 2-5 finish would be enough 84.8% of the time, while 3-4 essentially clinches it at 99.3%. They need at least 4-3 to have a realistic (73%) shot at 6th, while a very unlikely 7-0 would be needed for a 82% chance at 5th or better.

4/11: Despite the Mavs win over the Kings last night, Dallas' playoff odds have actually gone down very slightly. This is due to unfavorable results in games outside their control. Today the good guys are 84.3% likely to make the playoffs. However, their prospects have improved in that only a 3-5 record the rest of the way is required to boost those odds to 89.7%, and 4-4 would be the near guarantee of 99.6%.

Original Post 4/9:

Over the last couple weeks, a few pundits have persisted in saying that Mavericks are at real risk of missing the playoffs. Let's take a look at likely outcomes of their schedule and their tiebreakers to see how concerned we should be as fans. The best resource I have found for these situations in Pro Club Stats. This late-season fixture within my array of constantly-open tabs simulates the rest of the season millions of times every day (using point differential to weight the odds), and estimates the chance every team has of finishing at any seeding position. Drill down on the Mavericks, and you will get a model for likely seeds given each possible record over the last nine games:

via a.yfrog.com

If twitter is blocked on your computer this image won't be displayed. Just look at the bottom of this page, which you could also refer back to over the next couple weeks to see how the odds adjust day-to-day.

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I set aside analysis for a while after finishing my last post, but now it's time for me to move onto the next study. I could use some input from all of you to guide me, though. The plan is to explain and analyze the MLS Castrol Rankings. For the most part the response to these ratings is either, "That's kinda interesting, but I'm not sure exactly what I'm looking at," or "Bah, this makes no sense at all."

However, it has been proven that the sum of an MLS squad's Castrol Ratings correlates strongly to that club's success. That says there's real value in this measure, but I want to look closely at individual players who seem to be over-rated and under-rated by the index. I've reached out on twitter to the creators of the Castrol Index, and they replied: "@OptaHunt Hi there! Hopefully we can help - can you DM us a contact email? Thanks!" I've responded and hopefully will have the opportunity for a useful Q&A session some time in the next couple weeks. I've already done some analysis and prepared a couple questions, but I'd like to incorporate other FC Dallas fans' input into this feature as well. What do you think of the MLS Castrol Index's assessment of FC Dallas players in 2011?

If you followed FC Dallas last year, please fill out the surveys after the jump. This is for posterity, so tell me how you feel, but please, be honest.

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Last season, David Ferreira played 502 minutes before his ankle was broken against the Vancouver Whitecaps. While he was playing, FC Dallas earned 0.8 points per game (excluding the game against Vancouver) scored 1.07 goals per 90 minutes, and allowed 1.61. Without him, those numbers shifted to 1.61 ppg (also excluding the first game vs the 'Caps), 1.26 for, and 1.06 against. That's the simple "statistical" analysis you might hear a few times this year from commentators. Surely the 2010 MVP didn’t have a negative influence on his side in 2011… right?

Opta Chalkboards gives us access to much more detailed and insightful statistics, which give us a more accurate and nuanced view of Ferreira’s contributions to the red stripes. We can evaluate FCD before and after the injury in their shooting, possession, passing, etc and the placement of every one of these actions. Such data will illustrate the effect El Torito had on the squad in the past, giving us a reasonable expectation for FC Dallas' play when he returns to health in the near future.

In other sports, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is a standard measure of a players worth, measuring their contributions relative to a hypothetical low-level player at their position. Last season, Ferreira’s injury created a natural small-scale case study for this valuation in MLS. The most logical pairing¹ of pre-injury matches with a control group are games versus San Jose (Home 3/26/11, Away 10/22), Colorado (H 4/8, A 10/1), and Portland (A 4/17, H 6/25)². Sizable differences exist between these sets of data that can teach us about El Torito’s impact. One of Ferreira’s more striking influences was in the location of shots on goal. My own attempt to display these shots visually was hideous, so I enlisted my graphic designer brother-in-law, to create an infographic using Opta Chalkboard data (click the image for a larger, crisper version):

Read on for interpretation of this graphic and other data from these games:

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Days after someone watches a match, what do they remember? The decisive goals are recalled almost universally, as are the passes that led directly to them (especially if highlights are widely distributed). Other dramatic events like a goal-line clearance, violent tackle, amazing save, impressive piece of skill, or a good chance bungled away are many times recalled as well. An expert of the game would also remember more nuanced actions or non-actions as well. Still, how many people have accurate memory of more than 10 minutes of the actions in a match? Can the human brain even process all the details of the 11 versus 11 flow of the game in real time? How can fans (and even coaches and scouts) effectively evaluate a player when their brains are incapable of taking in the nuance of play?

Statistics can fill in some of the observational gaps in soccer. After all, one of statistics' primary purposes is to bring attention to trends which might otherwise escape our notice. Historically, the beautiful game hasn't been interested in quantitative commentary. It does seem odd that someone would try to break down into numbers a continuous-action sport which can be transcendentally unpredictable. If you can identify trends, though, you gain an edge on the stat-averse, but you have to dig deeper than you would in most sports.

Until recently, the only widely available soccer stats were goals, assists, shots, saves, and time of possession. These can be somewhat telling when summed up over months or seasons of play, but try picking three of a club's games and drawing larger conclusions from their stats. You would be hard-pressed because they are subject to swings based on tactics, luck, opponent strengths and weaknesses,, refereeing, and small sample sizes. We've all seen goals that had more to do with a fortunate bounce than skilled striking or passing. Chimu Solutions wrote a great article in Shin Guardian last season about time of possession's lack of relevance in MLS. Besides, most traditional stats detail the events that are most likely to be remembered by observers anyway.

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Fox Soccer Plus is on free preview with some cable and satellite providers this week, and it happens to sync up with one of the last two opportunities George John will have to get on the pitch and impress Sam Allardyce before West Ham decides to buy him or send him back. From Steven Goff's always excellent Weekend Soccer & Streaming Video post:

SATURDAY

England, West Ham vs. Crystal Palace 7:30 a.m. Fox Soccer Plus, foxsoccer2go.com

foxsoccer2go.com is also available on free trial, but it's the type of trial that involves entering your credit card and remembering to cancel before you get billed, so sample at your own risk.

Goff's column doesn't cover Spanish broadcast's, but I did find that Duilio Davino's Estudiantes Tecos will be playing Chiapas FC on ESPN Deportes 5:55pm on Saturday. They also play against Tijuana Xolos FC on Galavision 9pm on March 2.

Of course, more important than any of those broadcast are the webstreams on mlssoccer.com and espn3 for FC Dallas' games in the Disney Pro Soccer Classic (after the jump):

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Join me in welcoming our newest writer Steve Fenn who will be providing statistical analysis for us all season. Enjoy!

Welcome to OptaHunt, where I will be using statistics to analyze FC Dallas, and occasionally their opponents or MLS in general. I aim to publish an article on at least the 2nd and 4th Thursday of every month. Hopefully I get more efficient in time and will write more regularly. Sometime soon I'll write a mission statement laying out my general thoughts on soccer statistics; their strengths, weaknesses, and recommended resources for advanced metrics and analysis. Oh, and I'll be re-tweeting any interesting things I come across on @OptaHunt.

For today, I've collected various insights from @OptaJack that give perspective to FC Dallas' incompetent strikeforce of 2011.

OptaJack OptaJack 39.5% - FCDallas has the worst shooting accuracy in MLS, hitting the target with just 39.5% of it shots. Awry. #RBNY 26 Oct

OptaJack OptaJack 72% - Excl. crosses, New York has the 2nd best passing accuracy in the opponents' half (72%) - FCDallas ranks 17th (64%). Vision. #RBNY #MLS 26 Oct

Obviously, the first stat speaks to the general inaccuracy of the every FC Dallas player's shooting, but I think both of these figures are partially the result of FC Dallas running out forwards that were largely incapable or unwilling to hold up the ball and distribute. Everyone was stuck trying to force low percentage passes and shots because there was no one to anchor the attack.

OptaJack 17 - FC Dallas saw 17 different players directly assist a goal for them in MLS this season; more than any other side. Promising. 20 Dec

Opta labeled this promising, and on the surface, it's nice that 17 got at least 1 assist, but Castillo was the only "forward" with more than one (he had 3, but I'd wager a couple were when he was playing on the wing). No single player had more than 4 (Jacobsen led, averaging an assist every 370 minutes). Without a reliable forward, the club did what was needed to score, but I think a more focused attack with a reliable target would have been preferable.

OptaJack 67% - @FCDallas has seen 67% of its away goals scored by midfielders, the highest % by any team in #MLS. Wingers. #DTID #RBNY #FCDallas 14 Sep

Before 9/14, FC Dallas had scored 18 goals in 15 away matches. So, according to Opta, 12 were from midfielders. George John and Ugo Ihemelu were the only defenders to score during those games, accounting for 3 combined. Which means that forwards scored as much as defenders in those games with just 3 goals (2 from Maicon Santos, and 1 from either Marvin or Jackson doing their best impression of a striker).

After the jump we'll look at the 3 "strikers" that left (we won't bother discussing Uncle Miltie, who wasn't really around long enough last season to be worth analyzing)

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I'm driving up from Pittsburgh this weekend, and will be catching the Mavs/Cavs game while I'm there. The game is pretty much the only reason I'll be downtown, though, and I was hoping for parking tips from some of you.

How expensive is parking at QLA?

Any markedly cheaper alternatives within 4-5 blocks? I don't mind walking a bit.

Any recommendations of good, cheap (at least in comparison to arena food) places to eat in the area?

I am working on an article for another SBN blog concerning the history of MLS and its clubs rejecting transfer offers. I immediately thought of Taylor Twellman, then I remembered an allegation that the Revs were extremely hesitant to let Dempsey move to Fulham. Did Shalrie Joseph stay put because the Revs blocked his potential transfer, or did Celtic backed out?

Of course, I hit upon this idea the day that Wikipedia is blacked out (bug your congressmen to block SOPA and PIPA, those acts could hurt SB Nation, too). I'd like to include fans' perspectives in the article anyway, so here are my questions:

- Which transfers do you remember the Revs (or any other MLS team) blocking? Any details such as dates, fee offered, amount of time left on the player's contract at the time would be fantastic. Please specify the level of confidence you have in the memory of those details.

- How do you feel about this issue? Should MLS teams transfer players in most cases if a fair price is offered? What would you have considered a fair price for the players' whose moves were blocked?

A few days ago, Iain Dale of West Ham blog westhamtilidie.com and I agreed to answer each other's question about George John and the Hammers, since fans of both clubs didn't seem to know much about the other. He published my answers about Mr. John, and it's generated quite a few comments.

One note: from what I've read, their best defender according to Iain, James Tomkins, is rumored to be a target of a couple EPL clubs, but West Ham management has stated that he's not for sale. Take that for what it's worth, and I hope you find the following exchange interesting:

Which players will George John likely be competing with for playing time, and how do you rate them?

There are currently three central defenders on the books. James Tomkins will always be the first name on the team sheet. He is a young, agile and skilful central defender who many of us believe will play for England one day. He loves bringing the ball out of defence and is the antithesis of a clogger. The place alongside Tomkins is usually taken by Abdelaye Faye, a massive mountain of a man who, at the age of 33 is a very experienced Senegalese international. He has played for many years in the Premier League, for Bolton, Newcastle and Stoke. He is surprisingly quick, but is also very injury prone. When he is not fit, young New Zealand international Winston Reid plays. He had a difficult start at the club but has played well this season and scored a couple of goals.

We're a bit puzzled by the apparent cheapness of this loan-to-buy approach. After relegation last season, how are the Hammers doing financially, and do you think the board is hedging in case promotion and/or player sales don't go their way?

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I think this fanpost and its comment thread could serve as a good, central place to brag or lament over presents that we want to recommend to others or warn them off of. Maybe even some things you wanted but didn't receive.

Obviously, this will be mostly FCD- and US-National-Team-centric, but if you got something singularly awesome outside of those circles, mention that too. Hopefully I'll remember to check back here when my family starts asking for birthday gift ideas.

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Why do people think Cuban can get both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard? According to Hoopworld, Dallas has $37,968,577* already committed to players in 2012-13. They could knock $8.3mm off of that by amnestying Haywood or Marion next summer, but then they'd only be $28.3mm* below the likely cap of $58mm (which assumes league revenue will be steady). That's nowhere near enough to sign 2 stars. According to the new CBA guidelines 7+ year veterans can get 30% of the cap. So, Deron and Dwight could get a little over $17mm per. I don't see two free agents each leaving $12mm (over four years) on the table.

For those that dream of Dirk giving another discount to make this possible, Dirk is due $20,907,128 in 2012/13 and $22,721,381 in 2013/14. Splitting Dirk's salary with both FAs would bring the per-player salary up to a little under $17mm, and I'd be pleasantly surprised if Dirk forfeiting $10mm he already has under contract.

That said, I'll be ecstatic if they get one of the marquee guys. One player to take some of the pressure off of Dirk as he ages would be unbelievably important short- and long-term. I think the most likely to be available is Deron, if NJ strikes out on Howard. Also, if you're curious, here's the full list of other free agents for next summer.

Also, could we quit talking about Dalembert signing now? The Mavs can only offer min deals since they've dealt their exception, and a center like Dalembert won't go for that. If you think the Mavs should get him, use the trade machine to figure out how it would work on a $10-11mm deal. We're looking for guys that are unlikely to have large offers elsewhere.

*edit: I forgot to subtract Rudy and Brewer when first posted. Also, Vince Carter's 2013 and 2014 salary is partially guaranteed, so that will eat up a little cap space, too. Further clarification on potential star salaries was also added later.

Mark Cuban's response to Tim McMahon asking "What am I missing:" (I bolded the phrases I found most insightful)

If this were the old CBA rules, we probably would have kept everyone together. But the rules changed.

If we were able to sign everyone to two-year deals, that would have possibly changed things as well, but that wasn’t in the cards either.

What you are missing is that it’s not about the luxury tax. It’s about the ability to improve our team going forward.

The reality is that in the new system, cap room will have far more value than it had in the past. I realize that everyone is all freaked out about how and where free agents and future free agents are going, but it’s not just about getting one guy.

We are not saving cap room in hope of that one super special free agent being there. It’s about being in the position to improve every year and possibly add some significant, younger players next year and in future years.

What I don’t think people understand is that once a team hits the tax level the ability to improve our team is reduced dramatically. In addition, your ability to make trades is reduced. So basically, if we made the move to keep everyone together with five-year deals, the team we have today is going to be the team we have for the next five years. If we were a young team it would be one thing. But we are not a young team.

In the past, it was different. If we had a problem, I could fix any mistake by having Donnie find a trade and just taking on more money. That is how we got Jet, the Matrix, JKidd, Tyson. It was always about taking on more money. That trick doesn’t work any more for teams over the tax. So we have to change our approach. By getting back under the cap, we have a ton of flexibility not only for free agent signings but also trades. If we can get the right guy(s) via free agency, great. if we do it via trade, great. We have that much more flexibility to make moves.

Again, I know this is tough for all of us after winning a championship. But we still believe as much as last year we are in a position to compete for a championship.

The difference is that with this approach, we can be in a position to compete for a championship this year and to reload and continue to compete in future years.

By just signing everyone to long-term deals, there is no chance of that happening.

We won last year because we put ourselves in a position to create opportunities that brought us the right players at the right time.

We structured contracts in ways that gave us upside. The rules are different now, and while it makes it tougher this year because of the affection we have for many of the guys that are leaving, if we want the Mavs to be able to compete for championships in future years as well, it’s a hard decision, but I believe the right decision.

Click the link above for McMahon's intro to this quote. My thoughts and your comments after the jump:

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The Grantland staff wrote about their expectations of the coming 66 games and playoffs.  Each of them simply writes about what tickles their fancy right now, so overall the article is jumble of different viewpoints.  I just thought Mavs fans shouldn't miss out on David Shoemaker's section, titled "Mavs Victory Lap"

Speaking on behalf of Dallas Mavericks fans, we would like to thank you all for your solidarity during the Finals. (Actually, we'd like to thank you for picking the Mavs to lose to the Blazers in the opening round, to lose to the Lakers in the semis, and to lose to the Thunder in the Western Conference finals. Really, that helped.) We were proud to be the team the world could rally behind in toppling that diabolical squad with the two transcendent players who occasionally looked preternaturally dominant on the court.

I recommend you click the link above to read the rest of his section (the fourth one in the article), which goes on to talk about the beauty of the heightened importance of your team while they are the reigning champs.

The rest of the article mentions Dirk 3 times, Cuban once, and the words "Dallas," "Mavs," and "Mavericks" don't appear outside of Shoemaker's writing.  Which is not to say the rest of the article is useless, it's just designed to be scattershot and subjective.  I enjoyed the insights of Simmons, Klosterman, Katie Baker, Shane Ryan, Michael Weinreb, and Bill Barnwell, but I have yet to read some of the sections written by guys whose names I don't recognize.

Check it out and come back here to talk about what aspect of the season you're most looking forward to.  Or to gripe about grantland if that's your thing.

If you go off of points per game, FC Dallas has the best record in MLS right now.

In my opinion, points per game is the most accurate way to rank clubs midseason.  Right now, LA and Seattle have played 2 more games than FCD, and rankings of total points inflate those teams' standing.

Here's my favorite site for points per game:

http://www.settingthetable.info/home/

Just click on PPG and the ranking is re-sorted.

I'm gladly eating crow, as I declared Dallas out of the Supporter's Shield race altogether when David got hurt.

I've seen comments about Gilbert potentially retiring Dirk Nowitzki's number, and want to pose the question to Cavs fans (I am a Dallas fan).  I know the concept seems a little ridiculous, but consider the following:

 - Lebron would have a reminder of his greatest failure in the rafters of two opposing stadiums.

 - Why not celebrate Lebron's failures a little more?

 - Miami is the only team to retire a number of an opposing player (Jordan) to this point.  In a way, this factor could be an extra thumb of the nose in the Heat's direction.

(poll after the jump)

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