We've all heard about it.  This is supposedly the year the pitchers are taking back the game from the hitters.  We've had perfect games (actual and virtual) and no-hitters galore.  ERA's are down almost everywhere.  But how big a change is it really?  Can we quantify it?

The answer is yes.  Fangraphs WPA does it for us.  If you add up the WPA's for the pitching staffs of all 30 teams you get +56.32.  That says collectively the pitchers are nearly 113 games over .500.  (Remember this is a zero sum game.  So if the pitchers are +56.32 the hitters must be -56.32.)  Divide that by 30 and you get +3.75 wins per team on average. 

Why does this work?  Because the Win Expectancy matrix is based on prior years.  If the pitchers (and hitters) were performing this year as they did in the past, they should each be right around 0.  +3.75 wins per team is a long way from 0.

To see how big a difference that actually is, it's helpful to count the numbers of teams in various ranges of WPA.  First, here are the pitching staffs.

Great (>7 WPA)  4 teams, headed by the Rays at a phenomenal +10.80.  All 4 of them are division leaders.

Very Good (4-7) 5 teams.

Good (2-4)  6 teams.

Pretty Good (0-2) 6 teams.

Pretty Bad (-2 to 0) 3 teams.

Bad: (-4 to -2) 1 team.

Very Bad (-7 to -4) 4 teams.

Awful (<-7) 1 team.

There are 21 teams with winning staffs against only 9 losers.  15 are Good or better against only 6 that are Bad or worse.  In a normal year this distribution should look more or less normal.

As you'd expect, the distribution of teams from a hitters' perspective is nearly a mirror image.  There are no great (>7 WPA) hitting teams and only 2 Very Good ones.  Conversely, there are 4 Awful teams and 5 Very Bad ones.

After winning another series despite being outscored, the D'backs are closing in on an amazing record.  They are now 11.6 wins above where the Pythagorean formula (which really has nothing to do with Pythagoras) says they should be.  Since 1901, only 3 teams have finished the season with a bigger (positive) differential than that: the 1905 Tigers (14.0), the 2004 Yankees (12.2) and the 1984 Mets (11.8).  With 32 games remaining, if they maintain their current pace they will finish with 91 wins. That would put them 14.4 wins above where the formula says they should be.
What I find truly amazing is that this is the 2nd time they've done this in the Melvin era.  In 2005 they finished 11.2 wins above Pythagoras at 77-85 despite being outscored by 160 runs.  That's the most wins ever by a team that was outscored by 100+ runs, to say nothing of 160.  Maybe there is something to this Mad Professor business.

I decided to check out the new playoff probabilities after last night's win.  The D'backs chances increased to 39.7% while the Padres fell.... to 54.2%!  The gap is the same if you look at winning the division alone: 26.8% to 41.3%.  

What is wrong with this picture?  The D'backs have a 2 game edge in the standings, so why are they the underdog?  Strength of remaining opponents, perhaps?  Nope.  The same site clearly shows our schedule is slightly easier (.491 to .499).  Home vs. Road games?  No, we have 3 more at home, they have 3 more away.  Any ideas?

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-behindthestats&prov=ap&type=lgns

If you haven't already done so, check out this article from Yahoo Sports.  It was published April 19, but I just came across it.  Without giving too much away, 2 D'backs are mentioned prominently in the article.  One of them may surprise you.

I posted the following in Seth's comments section over the weekend.  He suggested I find a larger audience for it, so here it is.

You want something to complain about? How about this: The Twins have the 2nd worst OBP in the league by their leadoff batters, an awful .322. (Surprisingly, Billy Beane's A's are the worst at .317.) And for once Shannon Stewart isn't to blame. His .355 is the only reason we aren't dead last in this category. Mind you, .355 isn't anything to brag about either. If the Twins other #1 batters matched that, we'd still only be tied for 8th place in the AL --- tied with the Royals, I might add. OTOH, we'd be only 1 point behind the Tigers and 2 points behind the White Sox.

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After yesterday's game Gardy announced that Scott Baker would miss his turn in the rotation because of the off-day next Thursday.  That sets up Liriano, Radke and Santana to face the Tigers next weekend.  That's smart, although I think it would have been even smarter to skip Silva.  Without his sinker he might as well be throwing batting practice.  His ERA as a starter (7.33) is a full run worse than Baker's.  Moreover, Silva presents an alternative that Baker apparently does not: he can pitch out of the bullpen.  His ERA as a reliever is 1.29!

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