Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Early Season All-ACC Team

Large

fjm235

Apr 10, 2008 Sep 23, 2009 5 110

rss icon RSSUser Blog

Pythagoras Unbound

After winning another series despite being outscored, the D'backs are closing in on an amazing record.  They are now 11.6 wins above where the Pythagorean formula (which really has nothing to do with Pythagoras) says they should be.  Since 1901, only 3 teams have finished the season with a bigger (positive) differential than that: the 1905 Tigers (14.0), the 2004 Yankees (12.2) and the 1984 Mets (11.8).  With 32 games remaining, if they maintain their current pace they will finish with 91 wins. That would put them 14.4 wins above where the formula says they should be.
What I find truly amazing is that this is the 2nd time they've done this in the Melvin era.  In 2005 they finished 11.2 wins above Pythagoras at 77-85 despite being outscored by 160 runs.  That's the most wins ever by a team that was outscored by 100+ runs, to say nothing of 160.  Maybe there is something to this Mad Professor business.

4 comments  |  0 recs

"Smart" Standings are Stupid

I decided to check out the new playoff probabilities after last night's win.  The D'backs chances increased to 39.7% while the Padres fell.... to 54.2%!  The gap is the same if you look at winning the division alone: 26.8% to 41.3%.  

What is wrong with this picture?  The D'backs have a 2 game edge in the standings, so why are they the underdog?  Strength of remaining opponents, perhaps?  Nope.  The same site clearly shows our schedule is slightly easier (.491 to .499).  Home vs. Road games?  No, we have 3 more at home, they have 3 more away.  Any ideas?

Poll
What do you think the D'backs chances of making the playoffs are?
0 to 24%
0 votes
65 to 74%
9 votes
25 to 34%
1 votes
75% +
0 votes
35 to 44%
1 votes
45 to 54%
10 votes
55 to 64%
5 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

8 comments  |  0 recs

The most unhittable pitches in baseball

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-behindthestats&prov=ap&type=lgns

If you haven't already done so, check out this article from Yahoo Sports.  It was published April 19, but I just came across it.  Without giving too much away, 2 D'backs are mentioned prominently in the article.  One of them may surprise you.

2 comments  |  0 recs

Leading Off

I posted the following in Seth's comments section over the weekend.  He suggested I find a larger audience for it, so here it is.

You want something to complain about? How about this: The Twins have the 2nd worst OBP in the league by their leadoff batters, an awful .322. (Surprisingly, Billy Beane's A's are the worst at .317.) And for once Shannon Stewart isn't to blame. His .355 is the only reason we aren't dead last in this category. Mind you, .355 isn't anything to brag about either. If the Twins other #1 batters matched that, we'd still only be tied for 8th place in the AL --- tied with the Royals, I might add. OTOH, we'd be only 1 point behind the Tigers and 2 points behind the White Sox.

Continue reading this post »

6 comments  |  0 recs

Thinking the Unthinkable

After yesterday's game Gardy announced that Scott Baker would miss his turn in the rotation because of the off-day next Thursday.  That sets up Liriano, Radke and Santana to face the Tigers next weekend.  That's smart, although I think it would have been even smarter to skip Silva.  Without his sinker he might as well be throwing batting practice.  His ERA as a starter (7.33) is a full run worse than Baker's.  Moreover, Silva presents an alternative that Baker apparently does not: he can pitch out of the bullpen.  His ERA as a reliever is 1.29!

Poll
Should we go to a 4-man rotation?
Yes, drop Baker
4 votes
Yes, drop Silva
34 votes
No
47 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

18 comments  |  0 recs