SB Nation User Blog: fleerdon

Independence Day Rumor Rundown

fleerdon — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:01:25 -0000

Independence Day Rumor Rundown

Reds, Cubs, Mets, Giants, Phillies: were also in on DeRosa (Stark)
Kerry Wood is probably too expensive to move; Betancourt isn't (Stark)
Indians have scouted Red Sox' system recently; more Victor rumors result (Heyman)
...and the Giants have scouted the Indians' big-league club (Heyman)
In a thin market for arms, nobody has mentioned the exquisitely available Carl Pavano (me)

The only way the Indians will trade Lee, sources say, is if they are offered a potential...

fleerdon — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:09:55 -0000

The only way the Indians will trade Lee, sources say, is if they are offered a potential top-of-the-rotation starter at the level of the Braves' Tommy Hanson or [somebody better than] Red Sox's Clay Buchholz. [my edit]

Rosenthal, on rumors Los Angeles's interest in Cliff: "The Dodgers' best young starting pitchers, right-hander Chad Billingsley and lefty Clayton Kershaw, are part of the major-league rotation and all but untouchable. Their best pitching prospect, right-hander James McDonald, is not considered top-of-the-rotation material. Thus, a package of say McDonald, third baseman Blake DeWitt and one or two other prospects would not be enough to satisfy the Indians. The Phillies have also asked about Lee, but balked at the price, sources say." Naw, you don't say.

Early Weekend Six-Pack (18 June '09)

fleerdon — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 04:37:50 -0000

1. John Meloan is not helping his cause or ours...

On a 40-man roster this shell-shocked, it's hard to muster up a complaint about any one given minor leaguer. But it's telling that the Indians turned to journeyman relievers before the young and (presumably) healthy Meloan, whose 2009 was supposed to be a dramatic return to form, since he'd been decoupled from the starting duties to which the Dodgers had so irrationally shackled him. As it turns out, the problem may have more to do with John Meloan, and less to do with how John Meloan's being used. Take a look at his numbers since he left L.A. (as a starter) and came to Cleveland (as a reliever).

YEAR (TEAM): AVG / WHIP / FIP / LD%
2008 (LAD): .285 / 1.66 / 4.31 / 19.0%
2008 (CLE): .235 / 1.43 / 4.43 / 16.7%
2009 (CLE): .293 / 1.57 / 4.61 / 27.0%

Whatever's gone wrong with John since his standout 2007 season, moving him back to the 'pen doesn't appear to have fixed it. It's especially frustrating because even a modicum of effectiveness probably would have earned him a call-up by now.

2. Michael Brantley might be better than Trevor Crowe right now

Lost among the commentary about Brantley's rocky AAA debut was the fact that he kept getting good wood on the ball -- a LD% over 20% in April and May, and nearly that so far in June. As his discipline has caught up to the level of the competition (BB:K in April, May, and June: 7:14, 15:14, 6:4), Brantley's become a legitimate threat at the plate, not to mention a Net-demon on the basepaths, stealing 20 and only being caught twice. If Brantley's June level of performance is what he's really capable of, Sackmann's MLE predicts a Major League OPS in the mid-700s.

Should Grady's elbow turn out to need a good ol'-fashioned athroscropic scopin', the Indians will have some tough choices to make regarding the outfield. Obviously they could replace Francisco with LaPorta, but that still leaves a significant offensive hole in center, barring a turn-around from Trevor Crowe. The front office would have a number of reasons not to add Brantley to the 25-man -- not the least of which would be that he also would have to be added to the 40-man -- but doubts about Brantley's capabilities probably won't be one of those reasons.

3. The Indians do not have signability issues with the draft

And 2009 doesn't look to be an exception. Tony Lastoria reports that the Tribe has already inked 9 draftees, including 8 of the top 16 picks. Several more high level picks, including 3rd- and 4th- rounders Joe Gardner and Kyle Bellows, are unofficially signed and will be reporting to their minor league affiliates within the next few weeks. As Brad Grant said in a couple of different interviews, the Indians' prioritize signing the first 15 picks, then follow the rest for the summer and sign them as they see fit. Off we go.

I'm curious to see how this organization values Jason Kipnis in particular. As I noted in the comments to last week's 6-pack, Kipnis and 2008 pick Tim Fedroff are both college center fielders, very nearly the same age, so comparing their signing bonuses ought to give us a decent idea of how the Indians value Kipnis's talent relative to Fedroff's.

4. Given the opportunity, here's a dumb question I asked Brad Grant

"Do the Indians scout non-NCAA conferences and JuCo teams more heavily than do other clubs?" I was thinking about Mills coming from an NAIA team, and Chisenhall coming from a JuCo team. Except -- except -- that's not really what happened, is it? Both Beau Mills and Lonnie Chisenhall were NCAA Division I talents. Mills left for academic reasons, Chisenhall for trouble with the law, but ... shoot, these guys were only bargain-bin signs in the most superficial sense. While I'm at it, Mills didn't leave for just any NAIA team, but for the NAIA team. Lewis-Clark State is its own animal.

So if we think of Mills and Chisenhall as NCAA players, that means the Indians have used their first-round pick on a Division I guy every year since after Corey Smith in 2000 and Dan Denham in 2001. If that's not a ringing endorsement for selecting college players in the first round, I don't know what is. (By the way, from the "Did you know this? 'Cause I didn't" file -- Denham and Smith are still in baseball. Name the organizations they're with.)

5. Okay, so, Stomp ... what gives?

As long as we're talking about things I've written that are wrong, how about that glowing everything's-okay-now profile of Jensen Lewis in the Annual? Here's what FanGraphs' Marc Hulet had to say about Lewis, J. recently:

If you're a fan of FIP, you're probably not a fan of Jensen Lewis. The right-handed reliever has posted pretty good superficial numbers over the parts of the past three seasons that he's been in the Majors. However, his FIP has gone from 2.49 to 4.59 to 5.54. His line-drive rate was also a worrisome 24.5% in 2008, although it currently sits at 11.5%. His HR/9 rate has gone from 1.03 to 2.30 in the past two seasons. For what it's worth, Lewis does have a nice K/BB rate at 3.00.

A glance at Jensen's FanGraphs profile sheds some light on the problem, if not on the solution: His first-pitch strike percentage has fallen from 67.2% in 2007 to 55.4% in 2009, and he's inducing 10% fewer swings at pitches outside of the zone over that same timeframe. As Jensen is pretty strictly a fastball-changeup reliever anymore, I'm going to guess this is a fastball location issue more than anything. In 2008, PitchF/X says Jensen got most of his swings-and-misses up in the zone, and his called strikes at a medium height, on the corners. I'm left to conclude that Jensen's missing off the plate so badly that he can't set up the high heat or the change-up.

On the plus side, his stuff doesn't seem to have deteriorated, and he's still working in the zone, as Hulet points out, so there's no reason to think he can't be fixed. But the less-appealing reality might be that he's not a dramatically different pitcher than he's ever been, and that the league is simply on to him. Either way, the fact that the Indians haven't exercised that option year shows just how abysmal the bullpen really is these days.

6. If Carl Pavano's goose is cooked, what's left?

Saved the best for last, didn't I? In his recent round of in-game interviews, Shapiro said the team was trying to keep its "nose above the water" until the return of Westbrook, SLewis, and Laffey (and of course Sizemore and Droobs). What I don't think he had in mind was those three pitchers taking up slots 2, 3, and 4. But Zach Jackson's going through a rough patch, and after him, the only other starter on the 40-man is Hector Rondon. I'm stumped. What do we do if Pavano's hurt, or gassed?

Well, it's been a tough week. Have a couple extra of Milwaukee's ACTUAL best, in honor of our having hosted the Brewers.

via www.thebrewsite.com

UPDATE: Okay, since this is technically an 8-pack, here's two quick ones to slam.

7. "Carlos Santana! Carlos Santana! Ooohhhh, $%!#, Carlos Santana!"

Have you looked at this man's profile lately? If not, I'll tell you, it left me so sassified I started callin' out his name. That would be a 529 SLG basted with a 45:29 BB:K ratio, and no, you're not reading those numbers backwards. Oh, and he's throwing out 34% of attempted base-stealers. At the very least, I think Carlos will be seeing a promotion to AAA in the near future, but the larger reality might be that we're watching a Major Leaguer already.

Casey Blake, people. Casey. Blake.

8. CoolStandings still thinks 85 wins takes the Central

Which means, any way you cut it, that the Indians will have to play nearly 600 ball for the remainder of the season.

Somewhat less-new blood

fleerdon — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:37:47 -0000

As we approach 2009's draft season with varying levels of breath-baitedness, I thought I'd check in on the Annual's self-styled ten most important new draftees and international signees of 2008.

TREY HALEY

Right-handed starter Curtis "Trey" Haley has lots of alarming-looking numbers, until you see this number: 12, the total innings he's pitched since being plucked out of Camp Wanna-gidda-callup in Goodyear a few weeks ago. I do enjoy how his current MLE BB/9 rate is over 15, though. I'd watch a complete game with 15 walks.

LONNIE CHISENHALL

Seemingly intent on making of farce of Keith Law's 2008 mock draft, Chisenhall has lit into Carolina League pitching to the park-and-luck-adjusted tune of 315/388/516. Call me undiscriminating, but I don't see any bad news here: Lonnie's hitting the ball hard and often. The K-rate, pushing 20%, might seem a little uncharacteristically high in light of his amateur career, and 2:1 isn't really the K:BB ratio I'd hope for, but let's be real here. This is a 20-year-old third baseman with a 900 OPS in high-A ball. Carry on.

T.J. HOUSE

T.J.'s sporting a 1.212 WHIP through his first 10 starts at Lake County. MinorLeagueSplits thinks he's been getting a little lucky on balls in play, but I'd call striking out 7+ per nine at a 2:1 BB:K ratio a fine start. If you're part of the camp that thinks the Indians have shied away from high-ceiling prep arms, House -- big-bodied, left-handed, with two breaking balls and some heat -- might be the guy that proves you wrong.

ALEX MONSALVE

The Indians' most expensive international signee from last year, a teenaged Venezuelan catcher, makes his utterly-un-ballyhooed debut in the Dominican soon. MiLB.com lists Alex at 185, already 15 pounds heavier than at his signing date. I kind of want to take a field trip to the Tribe's Latin American academy. JOSE OSORIA is also just getting started in the DSL; I couldn't track down ROLANDO PETIT so I assume he's in Goodyear. (The other names to keep an eye on down there -- if you're into that sort of thing -- are right-hander HAROLD GUERRERO and infielder GIOVANNY URSHELLA.)

TIM FEDROFF

Fedroff, as an older, college center fielder, presents something of an anomaly among the Tribe's 2008 draft class. They didn't pay nearly this much for any similar players. At Kinston, he's yet to flash any of the power he showed at UNC, with only 8 extra-base hits in 136 appearances. I like the discipline -- 21:29 BB:K -- but then from a 22-year-old outfielder in high-A, I kind of expect it as well. Tim could carve out an interesting niche for himself as the only legit center field prospect between Michael Brantley and Delvi Cid, but at his age, he doesn't have a whole lot of time to do it. Also, Brantley's three months younger.

BRYCE STOWELL

In fairness, I guess, we can't give any more creedence to Stowell's being a complete thug in his first 3 appearances than we give to Haley's struggling over the same timeframe.

Good, now that we've got that out of the way, Bryce Stowell is totally sweet -- 15 strikeouts in 9 innings with 3 walks, 4 hits, and 1 run, through 3 outings. He's all but got to slow down a little -- nobody's this good -- but he's a comparatively experienced pitcher who's always had the gift of "K," so we can't call his fast start entirely unexpected. I didn't see any indication last year that Bryce would be used as a reliever. I still expect that the Indians will make a starter out of him in the long run. At the very least, we have good reason to believe he's better than Sally League hitters.

ZACH PUTNAM

Zach, like Stowell, was considered a risky sign of sorts -- a lot of money for a guy with questionable mechanics and durability. Unlike Stowell, Putnam was almost certainly going to be a reliever, and he's starting to make that decision look smart. With a power-sinker and (so I hear) a plus-plus splitter, he's got a chance to be that rare groundball reliever with strikeout stuff. Zach did well at Kinston, with a 2.78 FIP, and got bumped up to Akron, where he's been ridiculous. Like 70% groundball rate ridiculous. I don't even know what to make of that. Cross your fingers and check back in a month or two.

CHEN-CHANG LEE

HEY WOW THERE'S A GUY NAMED C-C LEE IN HERE!!! AND HE HAD A HORRIBLE APRIL!

Yeah, the 9 runs in 14 innings thing will dent anybody's ERA, but Chen-Chang's recovered a bit, striking out 20 in 18 1/3 May innings. The walks remain troublesome. Don't let that distract you from the fact that he was an Olympic hero.

I'd also like to point out that New Blood's excluded-to-prove-a-point honorees, David Roberts and Cord Phelps, are also both off to nice starts.

LaPorta, Valbuena, Barfield coming up

fleerdon — Sat, 02 May 2009 03:09:29 -0000

LaPorta, Valbuena, Barfield coming up

Smith DL'd, Crowe option'd, Graffanino DFA'd.

Good things come in threes, too, right?

Intentional Over-reactions: Barely Joking Edition

fleerdon — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:05:10 -0000

For any of you who haven't been through this before, swing by this thread to get a feel for Mountains of Change.

Here's the deal, in brief: I was listening to the end of the Royals game tonight, and those 8,000 cold Kansas City residents were chanting "Let's go, Royals!" And they meant it. They were watching their boys eviscerate the presumptive divisional favorites, and they felt a sea change.

This cannot stand.

A lot of things have already gone wrong this year. Many more things will go wrong before the year is over. The Indians aren't going to be one of them.

Sheer force of will, folks. Laugh, and turn the tide.

Shaking off the opening day Twitters

fleerdon — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 02:10:16 -0000

With contributions from afh4

JeSeineLouis: FWD ALL: hey jensen!!! we r @ whiskey ranch on 5th, we 4got our bras 4 u 2 sign!!! ;D (1:21 am)
JeSeineLouis: oops (1:24 am)
JeSeineLouis: o well (3:15 am)

+++

Datz a fact: UP'N'@'EM, TIME TO GET COMANCHE MOON ON THEM RANGERS, LET'S DO MORE MATCH-UPS (4:48 am)
Datz a fact: HOLY HELL CLIFFY I GOT CHRIS DAVIS'S NUMBER LIKE A PICK UP ARTIST, CALL ME (4:49 am)

+++

ZachTheKnife: http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/team/roster_active.jsp?c_id=cle. hell. yeah. (6:45 am)

+++

Datz a fact: ELVIS! I CANNOT GET OVER THIS GUY'S NAME BEING ELVIS! AND HE SUCKS AT DAY GAME CURVEBALLS FROM LEFTIES! (6:59 am)

+++

Barfielder's Choice: I didn't even bring my 3B mitt. Just ain't no way. (7:07 am)

+++

AsTheCroweFlies: 25-man rox my socks off. literally. where are my lucky socks. (9:51 am)
AsTheCroweFlies: this could be bad. (9:53 am)
AsTheCroweFlies: jensen was my suite-mate, maybe he stole them? i'll ask. you know he plants his foot when he sleeps. (10:02 am)
AsTheCroweFlies: jensensnotansweringmycallsjensonsnotansweringmycallswtfjensensnotansweringmycalls (10:32 am)

+++

H is 4 Jhonny: estamos aqui al estadio (10:30 am)

+++

ZachTheKnife: 1.1 HR/9 in 2008, SON. I am not a throw-in. (11:14 pm)
ZachTheKnife: if i kill datz today, it'll be totally pre-mediated. guy's off the handle. (11:23 pm)

+++

DandyMarte: Cold Stone Creamery! (11:40 am)

+++

AsTheCroweFlies: @Gradyfromtheblock dude. DUDE. not helping. (11:43 pm)

+++

Barfielder's Choice: www.pixeljam.com/dinorun = awesome, i'm already playing on insane! difficulty (12:03 pm)
Barfielder's Choice: Dayum, I have GOT to get one of DD's t-shirts. Guy looks JACKED. (12:18 pm)

+++

JeSeineLouis: /yawn (12:34 pm)
JeSeineLouis: @Gradyfromtheblock you wore them to the gym? goooooood oooooooone (12:40 pm)

+++

ZachTheKnife: @Datz a fact Coach, what can the sample size possibly be for that? Like 2, right? (12:51 pm)

+++

AsTheCroweFlies: i'm wearing them. i don't even care. i don't even care. (12:53 pm)

+++

H is 4 Jhonny: vamos a jugar los rangers (12:53 pm)

+++

DandyMarte: Two targets near my apartment! (12:55 pm)
DandyMarte: Columbus is a pretty cool town! (1:15 pm)

+++

AnthonySunGod: Working on my hats. Got one of those things for putting them in the dishwasher. Fresh and clean. (2:00 pm)
AnthonySunGod: Accidentally put socks in dishwasher. Worked pretty good. (3:18 pm)

+++

PronkeyKong: Lifting tons of stuff above my head. Stuff way bigger than forks. (4:23 pm)

+++

WedgeBuster: @PronkeyKong Awesome, man. I'll go ahead and get the next month's lineups photocopied: The Pronk in 4th! (4:24 pm)

+++

RrrrrrrrrrundlesHasRrrrrrrrrrriches: @DandyMarte-who are you? I can't meet to go to movies, regardless. Have to go to ballpark. (4:40 pm)

+++

DandyMarte: @RrrrrrrrrrundlesHasRrrrrrrrrrriches-Oh, no! Where is ballpark???? (4:56 pm)

The Pitchers and Catchers Report: BMI Edition

fleerdon — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 15:38:38 -0000

Thought I'd put together the morning links, because that sounds like more fun than walking the dog in the sideways-falling snow.

Castrovince brings us the obligatory shoulder-shrugged Pavano response to Joe Torre's The Vixen Manual, or whatever his pinstripe tell-all is called. All due respect to A.C., but here's the piece, in ten phrases: (1) fresh start, (2) unflattering remarks, (3) questioned his loyalty, (4) all these issues, (5) no use for revisiting the past, (6) 'wish nothing but the best' for Torre, (7) third spot in rotation, (8) no limitations with his arm, (9) thicker skin, (10) low-risk contract. The only real nugget is that Pavano and Wedge have some history, but given how long Wedge has been in baseball I doubt that Pavano's unique in that respect, or that it had anything to do with choosing Pavano over the other reclamation-project starters this off-season.

We're also treated to a classic Jhonny quote, this one about how he felt playing some third base over the winter:

"It's a little bit different," he said of the position. "The only good thing is I don't have to move as much."

I love Jhonny.

A bit of news that I missed earlier this week is that, while Grady was christening the Goodyear bleachers, Hafner has been taking overhand batting practice in the cage. Pronk has yet to debut on-field.

Hoynes's spring training daily is just a mailed-in interview with Victor. Hoynes says more than 50 of the 59 players due for the full-squad workouts are already in camp. Those workouts start Tuesday. A fun side-note is that former Indians no-limit organizational soulja Dave Wallace, a catcher, is in camp as a coach this year.

Hoynes did put up a nice piece about Martinez and Shoppach's working relationship last night: Kelly was there as Victor tested his arm for the first time this spring. It's not news to us that they're friends or good teammates, of course, but it's nice to read about people getting along. I do enjoy knowing that Vic refers to Kelly as "Shoppy." To wit: "Shoppy is a great guy to work with," and "Shoppy and I can play every day for just about any team in the big leagues." Nice, Vic. This was good to hear, as well:

Martinez will take the field today for the first official workout of spring training with no restrictions. He's been throwing three days a week since late October and says his arm is fine. "I told my wife when we went home to Venezuela, 'I didn't do anything during the season, so I shouldn't be tired.'"

In our interneck of the woods, Lastoria has conscripted some minor leaguers to blog with him this season: Chris Giminez, Vinnie Pestano, Clayton Cook, and one of the more intriguing members of the 2008 Indians draft, LHP T.J. House. So we've got that to look forward to. If you haven't been following Tony's OCD-qualifyingly in-depth minor league depth chart countdown, it might be time to start tuning in. We're into Frank Herrman territory.

Lastoria also has news for us about Nick "Third-Round Pick in the 2008 Draft" Weglarz, who is reportedly up to 255 pounds from his draft-day weight of 225.

After two and a half weeks of prep, he'll leave Goodyear on February 28th to join his Team Canada teammates in Florida and be the starting left fielder for them. After a few exhibition games March 3-5 against the Blue Jays, Phillies and Yankees, they will open WBC play with their first game against Team USA in Toronto on March 7th.

Tony gushes: "All the comps to Jim Thome are dead nuts on." Two things. One, Thome actually played 21 games with the big-league club in his age-20 1991 season. I know, the 1991 Indians and the 2008 Indians were very different creatures, but still. Two, dead nuts?

If you've got some time to kill this weekend, poke around THT. Two interesting pieces up right now: Dan Turkenkopf on how much pitchers can actually influence quality of contact, and Mike Gimbel on whether steroids helped Alex Rodriguez. I also really liked Sky Kalkman's The Many Faces of Average, which explains why Carlos Gomez and Jermaine Dye were equally valuable last season. By the way, have I ever told you guys about how I hate the Twins?

Around the league:

Currently raining on Jeff Loria's stadium-building parade: no public funding, and presumably lots of actual rain.

Johan Santana hasn't recovered from off-season knee surgery soon enough to pitch in the WBC. Of course, if Ichiro can pitch, maybe Johan can play right.

And, finally definitively answering the most burning question of the off-season, Stan Kasten reports that the Nationals "remain in building mode." You don't say, Stan.

The Indians appear to be close to signing closer Kerry Wood to a two-year contract.

fleerdon — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 19:23:20 -0000

The Indians appear to be close to signing closer Kerry Wood to a two-year contract.

Castrovince, official site.

UPDATE: 3:45 p.m. A.C. says it's down to technicalities. Shapiro to meet with reporters later this afternoon.

Bats or arms: how much should the Indians improve for 2009?

fleerdon — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 05:13:30 -0000

I started writing about the likelihood of 2008 being The Performance We Should Expect from Jhonny Peralta, and whether that in turn means we should investigate trading him this off-season. I have instead crunched a few numbers on the "average" American League playoff team. Funny how that works.

I give you the mean run differentials of the Junior Circuit* teams which made the playoffs in the last three seasons.

2007: 867 RS - 717 RA
2006: 831 RS - 713 RA
2005: 825 RS - 721 RA

(I remember enough of my statistics to know that this is all kinds of imperfect. I've got all the issues which attend run differentials to begin with, stirred together with the artifical constraints of a divisional post-season structure, braised with a vastly inadequate sample size and seasoned with a few outliers. Whether that overwrought metaphorical dish of statistical noise discredits the entire meal of my premise is a question I'll leave to those of you with actual mathematical aptitude.)

Two things strike me about those numbers. First, they're fairly consistent. Given the way the game works, of course, I can't argue that the Indians need to score X runs and prevent Y runs to make the playoffs. However, I think I can say with some confidence that, hey, it wouldn't hurt. Second, the Indians need more help than I thought.

At their current pace, the Tribe will finish with a differential of plus-43: 790 runs scored, 747 allowed. The average AL playoff team since 2005 has sported a differential of about plus-124 (841 RS to 717 RA), and only one team (the 2006 Athletics, a data point I'll be ignoring from now on) made it in with a differential of less than plus-91. I think the Indians need to get at least 50 runs better this offseason; 70 or 80 would be preferable.

Probably we could have reached that conclusion without my bush-league analysis. The real question is, how should the Indians attempt to get better?

Playoff teams which scored around 800 runs or fewer, in these last three years anyway, needed studly pitching to get the job done. In 2005, neither the White Sox nor the Angels plated more than 770 runs, but they also held their opponents to an average of 644 runs between them. The 2006 Twins staff, backed by an 801-run offense, only surrendered 683 runs en route to the wild card. The Indians themselves in 2007 were the weakest AL offense in the playoffs at 811 runs, but then they carried the second-best staff -- 704 runs allowed.

There's a cause-and-effect assumption there. I could just as easily have said that teams which don't surrender more than 700 runs don't need to score as often to be successful. Indeed, a minimal degree of run prevention seems to be something of a post-season pre-requisite. Among this sample set, only the 2005 Red Sox allowed more than 800 runs.

What's the point of those last two paragraphs? I think they demonstrate that the averages I posted above lead to some relatively useful generalizations. Recent AL playoff teams tend to a) score significantly more than 800 runs, while b) allowing something in the neighborhood of 700 runs, unless c) they allow significantly fewer than 700 runs, in which case they don't have to score quite so much. To which I will self-importantly add, if your team can't manage that, they're roadkill candidates, a la the 2006 Blue Jays or -- you know -- the 2008 Indians.

It's a complicated question, mostly because there's more than one way to make the playoffs, and average differential isn't going to capture those differences in much detail. My own semi-obvious take: The Indians will have to show improvement both on the mound and at the plate, but if they're serious about making the playoffs in 2009, they need to beef up the offense considerably. Given the rotation's youth and health issues, I don't see this as a sub-700-run pitching staff next year. If that's a fair assumption, then the Tribe is going to need to push more guys around the bases.

*The NL sucks.