SB Nation User Blog: fleerdon

The struggles of my season were because of me and the things I did.

fleerdon — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:09:56 -0000

The struggles of my season were because of me and the things I did.

Chuck Lofgren talks to Tony Lastoria about a rough 2008. Thanks to Tony for letting Lofgren put it in his own words.

I don't have any great insight here, but I was having this chat with Paul over at the D.T. and...

fleerdon — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:14:19 -0000

I don't have any great insight here, but I was having this chat with Paul over at the D.T. and thought I'd seek out some more opinions. Barfield's goose: Cooked, or not cooked?

I ought not to think more of him than he really is as a player just because it would be so convenient of him to rebound ... but shoot would it ever be convenient of him to rebound.

If you want to play, here are some BarfLinks to get you started:
THT
Minor League Splits
StatCorner

StatCorner

fleerdon — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 13:48:16 -0000

StatCorner

Just passing a link along. This site was put together by the Lookout Landing guys as a reference for the stats they use most often. Something fun to poke at, if nothing else.

LGB: All right, let's get outta here

fleerdon — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:44:28 -0000

LGB: All right, let's get outta here

A great Brew Crew Ball warm-up for Brewers-Cubs today, in which Sabathia (again) goes on 3-days rest, admittedly with the rest of his staff in the bullpen. So, C.C., Prince, I just want to tell the both of you "good luck." We're all counting on you. As for the Mets fans, they bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash!

Bats or arms: how much should the Indians improve for 2009?

fleerdon — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 05:13:30 -0000

I started writing about the likelihood of 2008 being The Performance We Should Expect from Jhonny Peralta, and whether that in turn means we should investigate trading him this off-season. I have instead crunched a few numbers on the "average" American League playoff team. Funny how that works.

I give you the mean run differentials of the Junior Circuit* teams which made the playoffs in the last three seasons.

2007: 867 RS - 717 RA
2006: 831 RS - 713 RA
2005: 825 RS - 721 RA

(I remember enough of my statistics to know that this is all kinds of imperfect. I've got all the issues which attend run differentials to begin with, stirred together with the artifical constraints of a divisional post-season structure, braised with a vastly inadequate sample size and seasoned with a few outliers. Whether that overwrought metaphorical dish of statistical noise discredits the entire meal of my premise is a question I'll leave to those of you with actual mathematical aptitude.)

Two things strike me about those numbers. First, they're fairly consistent. Given the way the game works, of course, I can't argue that the Indians need to score X runs and prevent Y runs to make the playoffs. However, I think I can say with some confidence that, hey, it wouldn't hurt. Second, the Indians need more help than I thought.

At their current pace, the Tribe will finish with a differential of plus-43: 790 runs scored, 747 allowed. The average AL playoff team since 2005 has sported a differential of about plus-124 (841 RS to 717 RA), and only one team (the 2006 Athletics, a data point I'll be ignoring from now on) made it in with a differential of less than plus-91. I think the Indians need to get at least 50 runs better this offseason; 70 or 80 would be preferable.

Probably we could have reached that conclusion without my bush-league analysis. The real question is, how should the Indians attempt to get better?

Playoff teams which scored around 800 runs or fewer, in these last three years anyway, needed studly pitching to get the job done. In 2005, neither the White Sox nor the Angels plated more than 770 runs, but they also held their opponents to an average of 644 runs between them. The 2006 Twins staff, backed by an 801-run offense, only surrendered 683 runs en route to the wild card. The Indians themselves in 2007 were the weakest AL offense in the playoffs at 811 runs, but then they carried the second-best staff -- 704 runs allowed.

There's a cause-and-effect assumption there. I could just as easily have said that teams which don't surrender more than 700 runs don't need to score as often to be successful. Indeed, a minimal degree of run prevention seems to be something of a post-season pre-requisite. Among this sample set, only the 2005 Red Sox allowed more than 800 runs.

What's the point of those last two paragraphs? I think they demonstrate that the averages I posted above lead to some relatively useful generalizations. Recent AL playoff teams tend to a) score significantly more than 800 runs, while b) allowing something in the neighborhood of 700 runs, unless c) they allow significantly fewer than 700 runs, in which case they don't have to score quite so much. To which I will self-importantly add, if your team can't manage that, they're roadkill candidates, a la the 2006 Blue Jays or -- you know -- the 2008 Indians.

It's a complicated question, mostly because there's more than one way to make the playoffs, and average differential isn't going to capture those differences in much detail. My own semi-obvious take: The Indians will have to show improvement both on the mound and at the plate, but if they're serious about making the playoffs in 2009, they need to beef up the offense considerably. Given the rotation's youth and health issues, I don't see this as a sub-700-run pitching staff next year. If that's a fair assumption, then the Tribe is going to need to push more guys around the bases.

*The NL sucks.

Bowie hit me better than this, actually.

fleerdon — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:29:18 -0000

Bowie hit me better than this, actually.

Scott Lewis, referring to his start against the Orioles' AA affiliate one week ago, following his 8-inning shutout Major League debut against the parent club.

LGFT?

fleerdon — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 14:34:21 -0000

LGFT?

I think if there is one problem that needs to be rectified, it would be a better evaluation of...

fleerdon — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:17:57 -0000

I think if there is one problem that needs to be rectified, it would be a better evaluation of certain players’ ceilings. That is, if Franklin Gutz or Garko has a great 2007 and his trade value is high – the Indians need to sell high on those guys, as opposed to getting pennies on the dollar for them if the prevailing thought is that players aren’t going to progress much more.

Paulie C, in the comments to his most recent post. It's something that's been troubling me all season: Are the Indians guilty of over-estimating their own talent? Is Garko finished as a useful major leaguer, and ought we to have seen it coming?

Casey Blake: The Prettiest Girl at the Dance

fleerdon — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:36:58 -0000

Casey Blake: The Prettiest Girl at the Dance

"A lot of teams are looking at Casey Blake. The top suitors are the Mets with a clear need and prospects, while the Rays and Twins are two others that have taken a look. Blake plays multiple positions, shouldn’t cost top prospects, and will be a free agent at the end of the year. The Indians are said to be "laying back and listening on everyone," as one front-office type put it." -Carroll, B.P.

When is Larry Dolan going to sell the club? I could buy a piece of it.

fleerdon — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 14:54:46 -0000

When is Larry Dolan going to sell the club? I could buy a piece of it.

Noted investor Albert Belle, from a sua sponte phone call to PD Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes. Belle is displeased with the Sabathia trade. He considers it further evidence of the Indians' underwhelming financial commitment to winning.