There we were with the need to shut down UVA one more time to win the game after dominating them all game; instead they drove the field on us and scored and won. Ouch. Then, last night, when both Texas and Tx A&M failed to stop Last Drives I got to thinking. Anyone remember UF going 70 something yards in Gainesville to upset Thad Busby and Company (?, we were ranked number 2 in the nation, I think?) to beat us in Spurrier's infamous black arts quarterback platoon game? I'm thinking now that there are several reasons why it is not wise to count on a defensive stop at the end to win in a one-score game.

Continue reading this post »

I am an engineer by education and employment, not a statistician. My best credential for attempting this little exercise may be that I once read a book entitled "The Statistical Theory of Communication" for pleasure. One of the activities most common to my engineering days was to broad brush probabilities and examine a range of outcomes to establish worst and best case scenarios. These were rough guesses. So, without the use of any of the cool statistical programs that many TN resident experts use when crunching numbers here, I set out to satisfy my curiosity with Excel and see what I might calculate as FSU's chances to win it all this year. Again, I'm no statistician so please point out my errors in thinking. I used only simple Excel functions and I'm not totally confident my statistical reasoning is sound, but the results appealed to my intuition and passed  a few simplistic reasonability tests, so here goes

Approach, assumptions, data and results to follow. Criticism welcome.

Continue reading this post »

This may not be appropriate for a Fan Post but I was blown away by the recent comments (and the context) of USCe's defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson. During an interview on WCCP radio (Clemson) this week, Johnson was asked if he thought Cam Newton was the greatest college football player of all time. (Granted, not a new and exciting question.) Johnson's response was different though; it went something pretty close to this.

"He may be. We see a lot of great players in this league but (Newton) may be. Now I'll tell you, Rodney Hudson, the guard from Florida State, he is one heck of a football player."

For an SEC coach to morph from the SEC's Cam Newton to Rodney Hudson from the ACC in an "all time great" discussion, after facing him only once, absolutely stunned me. He did not to my knowledge mention another player. I am reminded that Hudson had only 2 penalties during his career, is up to 299 pounds, and that Rick Trickett was moved to tears when he spoke about him. With all due respect to Walter Jones, he's gotta be our best or close to our best ever OL.

I guess I never quite believed it because of his body type. He just doesn't do as well on the eye-test, seems to me, as some of the other big time OL studs.

I live in Greenville, Clempson territory. All the "well-connected" guys in the know here are excited; they claim Clowney has already privaetly given Dabbo the word. He's coming. If true, how does this affect FSU? My thoughts, Clemson is definitely better than they were with or without the man-child. They have a better staff and some really fine skill people. With Clowney, they may be able to make some significant noise out of conference (like maybe win a bowl game, which would be nice) and possibly even stand toe-to-toe with us.My thoughts are selfishly, let the rest of the conference stink and then we can go about being top dog easily and contend with the world on our terms. Maybe it would be best though for several teams in the ACC (Clemson, V-Tech, Miami, UNC?) to actually get good. We may miss out on a conference crown now and then, but it might just make everything better to have a real league that can gain some respect by winning OOC games.

Clowney to Clemson? Should I believe that? Good or bad news if true?

Just for fun, here's data on how an arbitrary list of "famous" coaches performed, won-loss-wise, after taking over programs. My list of coaches is arbitrary and capricious; they just came to mind. The method of evaluation I used was to compare the 5-year average number of wins at their school before they took over as HC to the two successive years they headed the program there. I used Stassen as my data source. I used 16 coaching experiences. Some coaches (Bear Bryant, UK and BAMA; Bobby Bowden, WVU and FSU; Jimmy Johnson, OSU amd UM) appear twice in the list. The other coaches whose first five years at an institution I looked at were Bud Wilkinson. Woody Haytes, Darrell Royal, Ara Parseghian, Bo Scembechler, Joe Paterno, Tom osnorne, Barry Switzer, Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. The data proves nothing and is not shocking but I found it interesting (and comforting) and I hope you do too. Data and conclusions after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I am beginning to look upon Bud as a sage. I did not think any of the TN crowd would begin to doubt Jimbo Fisher if things turned ugly Saturday in Norman. Wrong. I have seen several amazing  comments here amounting to: given the results of the 2nd game in Jimbo's tenure, in which his team was thoroughly overmatched, he might not be the right guy. What? Bud told us a blow-out loss against OU was highly possible and he told us why. He also expressed concern that our unreal expectations might result in the sort of negativity we currently see posted here and there on TN. The negativity is wholly unjustified. Fisher is about PROCESS. His process is proven and sound. Very sound. We got waxed by a clearly superior team and it proves only one thing, OU was much better than FSU  on Saturday, September 11, 2010.

Continue reading this post »

Okay, we've been warned. Expectations and goals are (or certainly should be) completely different animals. We have learned here and elsewhere how to apply (statistical) expectation to our difficult 2010 schedule and, any way you slice it, we know that we ought to reasonably expect to win 7, 8, or 9 games. Vegas agrees. Heck, I agree. But something keeps nagging at me; a voice that whispers (unreasonably), "we're going to do better." You may now be hearing the same message despite your reasonable nature. I admit it; my naggingly hopeful and optimistic  voice does not offend or concern me. I can live with whatever happens, right or wrong, because I KNOW that processes (there's that Saban-Fisher word again) are in place that guarantee huge improvement in the team I root for over time. But I have had to ask myself, why does that voice persist so brazenly. I think I know the answer; FSU's fame, fortune and future sit atop a magnificent crest of intangibles--a perfect storm of good news for FSU--that seems to scream at reasoned expectation, "Shut up and sit down."  So a question for you guys, has there ever been another NCAA football team that has had so many intangibles (see list below)  working in concert to shock the reasoning world? (None of the listed symptoms are the product of my insight, my purpose is to recite them to explain (not justify) many of our seemingly "unreasonable" expectations.

1. It's the defense that was broken, not the offense, and defenses are easier to fix.
2. Lack of talent cannot nearly account for last year's dismal numbers, so coaching was overwhelmingly responsible for our standing in the NCAA stats. (Unprecedented in degree.)
3. All those bad coaches are gone! (Rare.)
4. The new coaches have brought with them a new, modern scheme. (Unprecedented in degree-- you have to be way out of date to change so radically to the plus side.)
5. We were woefully small on the defensive side last year, suddenly, thanks to better nutrition and conditioning we are good-sized. (Relatively unprecedented.)
6. Considering 2, 3 and 4 above, we have the rare scenario of a bunch of good athletes who are physically bigger and stronger who have been deeply embarrassed and want desperately to show the world. (Unprecedented. How often are really good collections of jocks absolutely humiliated then given the tools for redemption?) 
7. Because the D was sooo bad, our offense was actually undervalued--a decent D will give the O more chances, etc.

I cannot recall a program being so blessed with intangibles to juice up a turnaround. Can you? Have I misstated something? Missed something? I would not bet on our winning ten games, but because of the perfect storm of intangibles in Tallahassee I would also not bet against it. TN warned us last year that the D would be bad and I did not believe it. Turns out, TN was right and yet wrong, our D wasn't bad, it was abominable. The staff here saw it coming and so I am very respectful of the intelligence and wisdom at this site.  Nonetheless, I am thoroughly convinced that we are going to see the best FSU football since 1999. Whether or not that shows up as wins beyond reasonable expectations is another matter. I don;t care. The anticipated improved product, fueled by excellent coaching and phenomenal intangibles, will be good enough for me.

We are back on the path.

Maybe I missed the discussion. I have read a lot here about our tackles, backers and ends and a bit about our corners; just an inexpert opinion but seems to me both safety spots ought to be a topic, if not a huge concern for the FSU D next season. Can somebody put me at ease? Did anyone play well at safety this season or even show promise? Do we have a potential stud with a bit of experience waiting in the wings? What's the prognosis? What's the plan?

fm

Just for the sake of completeness, and certainly meaning no disrespect to the accomplishments of Bobby Bowden, I think it's at least worth mentioning to younger FSU fans and the general sports-minded public at large, it is not true that "FSU football was nothing before the arrival of Bobby Bowden." This is a popular myth right now in making the argument that FSU football is (was) somehow Bobby's to tear down, if he wished, because it was nothing before he came. Not so. FSU football arguably hit the college football map for the first time under the mad genius of  Bill Peterson in the sixties. If memory serves, Bowden was one of Peterson's assistants when FSU was tearing up the college football scene with the first true pro-style offense. A strong candidate for the Seminole's stepping to center stage is the 1964 (?) game against 5th ranked University of Kentucky (that's right, Kentucky) in Tallahassee; a game that FSU shocked the football world by winning handily, featuring the "Magnificent 7" defensive front  and Steve Tensi to Fred Bilitnikoff pitch and catch combo on offense.

FSU beat UF for the first time that year, in Gainesville, and went on in a future year to tie Alabama 37-37 in what would have been Bear Bryant's 300 win. (TK Wetherall played and starred in that game along with Walt Sumner, Ron Sellers and Kim Hammond, to name a few.) There were several other notable  moments during that run and FSU was frequently ranked in the top 25. During one of Coach Pete's latter years FSU placed nine players in the NFL draft. Pretty good for a "nothing" program. Then Pete left for the pros and in came Larry Jones who virtually dismantled the program with a rare combo of laziness, poor PR and ineptitude. 40+ players left the program (quit) under Jones and the program was, then and only then, a wreck. Jones was followed by Daryl Mudra and, believe it or not, Mudra actually turned things around from 0-11 (Jones last year) by winning 3 whole games the next two years. Despite the poor numbers Mudra had recruited relatively well (Larry Key, for example) and had significantly upgraded FSU from a joke to a team headed north.

Before Bowden became head coach, Don James, Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs all coached at FSU. Just sayin'.

FSU not only existed but made lots of noise before Bobby showed on the scene. I mention it only because it's true and, at least to an old timer like me, important.

Yes, it's early and the ACC is not the Atlantic Sun but with any kind of realistic progression in the half-court game and barring a rash of injuries this Seminole BB team looks like a potentially elite group. I was going to wait until we played UF to chime in but then, if we impress against them as I think we will, the observation would be less bold. We seem to have the length, the skills, the athleticism, the depth and the chemistry to play with the big boys this year. Am I predicting a top 5 finish in the ACC; yes. Deep run in the NCAA, maybe. Could I be wrong--well, I've proven that I could be wrong and my wife is available to corroborate that if need be, but just in case I'm right I wanted to get on the board early.

fm

Can we assume that the new DC, if he comes from outside, will be allowed to choose his staff? I can't imagine bringing in a guy to head the defense without allowing him to chose who works for him--but I also couldn't have imagined Bobby hiring Jeffrey when we were at the top of the football world. So, is the present scenario

1.  Jimbo and Bobby confer and agree
2. A new man comes in
3. He interviews existing Defensive staff
4. Picks and chooses (Odell)
5. Hires his guys

Is it by design, or do our ends refuse to do as they are coached when they consistently seem to crash  in along the line of scrimmage with their heads down at the snap? Several times in the NCSU game it seemed that McNeil almost paralleled the line of scrimmage as the ball was snapped. The Wolfpack's frequent "answer" (and in this game without a "read") was to blow around him wide. UNC did this to us too, consistently for big gains, and I don't even want to mention Georgia Tech. I could understand this "approach" somewhat if a linebacker appeared anywhere in position to cover the area vacated as our end crashed but, up to now, that does not seem to be the case. The case seems to be that an opponent's untalented back is guaranteed about four yards for not fumbling and the sky is the limit for a runner with speed and one or two blockers.

Bad scheme, bad assignment fulfillment, both, something else, or am I suffering from a delusion?

fm