SBNation.com User Blog: forrestgump52

Recap of the last 4 minutes!

forrestgump52 — Tue, 07 May 2013 09:14:14 -0000

So 104-88, 4:09 remaining...Duncan had just left the game, Manu had missed two shots, Neal had missed an open 3 pointer...I sure as hell wasn't gonna put my money on the Spurs winning or even bringing it closer than 5...then this happened...I had to go back and watch the game, cause honestly 2 hours later the game was a blur.

4:03: Curry gets in the lane, and drops it off for D. Green who pulls a blair and misses a reverse layup

3:58: Parker draws Klay's 6th foul. Was this a foul? I've seen players get this call, but it wasn't. If one of the Spurs had picked up this as their 6th foul I would have been pissed. RJ ENTERS (yay!).

Parker hits two FTS.

SCORE: 104-90

(side note, I saw the warriors game thread and they talked about the refs for about 50% of the thread (mostly in the second half, I really didn't think it was that bad). There were a couple questionable calls in the last 4 minutes, but I know 2 for sure in 2/OT that helped the Warriors. I know the Warrior fans believe Tony Brothers = Joey Crawford)

3:42: Jack puts up a contested mid range jumper against Parker in iso with 10 seconds to go. I feel like Jack always hits shit shot against us, but obv he misses here.

3:33: Parker drives past Barnes on the PnR (Barnes was on Diaw) for the layup.

SCORE: 104-92

3:14: Curry drives in, kicks it and Barnes is wide open for a 3. BUT, Curry was called for an offensive foul as he was passing the ball. This was a bit of a ticky tack foul and partly due to Neal's flopping. Have to say this was a pretty lucky call as Barnes made the 3 (right after the whistle was blown)

3:07: Parker drives after taking D. Green (lol i just realized me adding D doesn't differentiate between Danny and Draymond oh well, its late) off the PnR (Green was on Manu).

SCORE : 104-94

2:42: Jack pass to Curry, who came off one ILLEGAL screen by Barnes. Its actually quite comical to see how much Barnes was leaning when he set the screen...but Curry mishandles the pass and Parker leads the fastbreak and dumps it to kawhi who actually makes a TOUGH finish (Might have been fouled by Green).

Score: 104-96

(side note: really embarrassed to see how many open seats there were in the AT&T center at this point when the camera showed the place...I would say some sections were barely 50% filled.)

2:18: Jack takes Diaw in isolation and comes in between 3 players. There was some contact, but if a foul was called it would have been a bail out call as Jack ran into a pretty stationary Manu...Jack really had no chance. Diaw played GOOD D.

1:57: This is when I thought the game was lost. Tony has barnes on him, kinda drives and then dumps it off to Manu, except Green read it the whole way and STEALS it and gives it to our boi (jk) RJ. PROPS to Neal for chasing him down and making him shoot 2 FTs which he MISSED BOTH (thank you RJ, we know you still love the Spurs).

1:41: After the 2 RJ misses, the Spurs offense breaks down, then Manu hits Kawhi, who drains the 3 from the top of the key which was contested decently by Jack.

Score: 104-99

1:18: Diaw gets switched onto Curry and BLOCKS Curry's 3. There was some contact after Diaw blocked the shot, but I believe that is allowed AFTER a player blocks the shot. Curry didn't seem to refute the non-call. Parker splits about 3 defenders for a layup.

Score: 104-101

59.8: Landry is isolated on Diaw, and I think most people knew he was going to try the midrange jumper, which he did. The Spurs have trouble rebounding the ball as our Green is trying to box out their Green and Landry is called for the offensive foul. I believe it WAS A FOUL as Landry elbows Diaw in the head. Diaw however, should have actually boxed out instead of just standing there. This was a call that easily could not have been made and probably ended our comeback.

Diaw makes 2 FTs

SCORE: 104-103

47.4: Curry misses a contest long jumper on the baseline over Kawhi. MANU lets Landry get the offensive rebound. MANU HAD TO find a man and box him out. He should have known since Diaw was helping on an iso that there was going to be one man unaccounted for on Manu's side. Instead he just looked aroudn for his man and let Landry slip right in front of him.

29.0: Jack hits a TOUGH 8 foot jumper over Tony. Really nothing Tony could have done.

SCORE: 106-103

20.8: DANNY GREEN HITS THE 3 to tie the ball game up. Him and Kawhi set screens for each other and Jack/Curry miscommunicated and Green was wide open. This was about as clean swish as you'll see.

Score: WERE TIED MOFOS

0.0: Curry misses a turnaround shot. Good D by Diaw, but Curry shoudl have been smart and taken a TO (if they had one) or hit one of his 2 teammates that were open.

WELL that was the last 4 minutes. Hope people that didn't watch the game found it helpful.

4:03: Curry gets in the lane, and drops it off for D. Green who pulls a blair and misses a reverse layup

Parker hits two FTS.

SCORE: 104-90

3:42: Jack puts up a contested mid range jumper against Parker in iso with 10 seconds to go. I feel like Jack always hits shit shot against us, but obv he misses here.

3:33: Parker drives past Barnes on the PnR (Barnes was on Diaw) for the layup.

SCORE: 104-92

3:07: Parker drives after taking D. Green (lol i just realized me adding D doesn't differentiate between Danny and Draymond oh well, its late) off the PnR (Green was on Manu).

SCORE : 104-94

Score: 104-96

(side note: really embarrassed to see how many open seats there were in the AT&T center at this point when the camera showed the place...I would say some sections were barely 50% filled.)

1:41: After the 2 RJ misses, the Spurs offense breaks down, then Manu hits Kawhi, who drains the 3 from the top of the key which was contested decently by Jack.

Score: 104-99

Score: 104-101

Diaw makes 2 FTs

SCORE: 104-103

29.0: Jack hits a TOUGH 8 foot jumper over Tony. Really nothing Tony could have done.

SCORE: 106-103

20.8: DANNY GREEN HITS THE 3 to tie the ball game up. Him and Kawhi set screens for each other and Jack/Curry miscommunicated and Green was wide open. This was about as clean swish as you'll see.

Score: WERE TIED MOFOS

0.0: Curry misses a turnaround shot. Good D by Diaw, but Curry shoudl have been smart and taken a TO (if they had one) or hit one of his 2 teammates that were open.

WELL that was the last 4 minutes. Hope people that didn't watch the game found it helpful.

Tim Duncan vs. Kobe Bryant

forrestgump52 — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 03:34:41 -0000

I live in SoCal, have been a Spurs fan all my life and of course its only natural to get into debates about Lakers vs. Spurs. First off, both teams have been incredibly successful since drafting Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan (which is about when I started watching basketball). Their methods have been polar opposites. The Lakers have mainly acquired their stars through free agency or trades (Shaq and Pau) while the Spurs have gotten it through the draft (Parker and Ginobili). The Lakers and Spurs have different budgets and have built their teams accordingly.

This post is going to be mostly on Duncan vs. Bryant since both of them are pretty much associated with their franchise for the past 16 or so years. I'll try to use facts for the basis of most of my comparisons, but obviously the game goes beyond that and I'll try to make it as objective as possible. Note: When I was doing some of this research (after being tired of doing endless debates ) there were quite a few stats that really surprised me considering both their primes were really in the 2000's. This will also probably be the last time I ever engage in this debate since I'm starting my job and have a few more responsibilities =].

Regular Season:

SCORING:

Lets start off with the stat that everyone cares about: POINTS. To me to measure scoring, you have to look at what PERCENT of the team points your scoring and how EFFICIENTLY your doing it. Scoring 20 points when your team wins 40-30 is more impressive then scoring 20 when your team wins 80-60. Likewise, scoring 20 points on 10-20 shooting is more impressive than scoring 30 points on 15-35 shooting.

Duncan: For his career, Duncan has scored 20.7% of his team's points. Till 2004, he was scoring about 24.5% of his team's point. He did this on .552 TS% (which takes into account, 2s, 3s and FT shooting) and a .508 EFG (which takes into account 3s are worth 1.5 x more as 2s). Championship years: 23.4, 24.4, 21.1, 20.3.

Bryant: For his career, Bryant has scored 24.9 % of his team's points. He did this on .555 TS% and .487 EFG. So he shot FTs better than Duncan, but scored slightly less effective on 2's and 3's. Championship years: 22.3%, 28.3%, 24.9%, 25.1%, 26.5%.

Conclusion: Bryant, like many would expect has been the better scorer in the regular season. He has scored as efficiently as Duncan, but has scored a higher % of his team points. However, the difference in championship winning teams has been closer than their career averages. Duncan since 09 has taken a backseat in the scoring department and thus is lower than his % during his prime.

Rebounding:

I'm not looking at Offensive rebounding % since many guys like Duncan and KG have been more focused on getting back on defense. However, DRB% is vital for a team to win a championship, while ORB has not correlated to championships.

Duncan: DRB: 26.6. Compared to 23.7 by Barkley, 25.7 by KG, 21.9 by Dirk, 23.5 by Malone, 23.6 by Shaq. Even great Centers such as Hakeen averaged 23.8% and D-Rob averaged 23.4%.As one can see, Duncan is probably the best rebounder of all the "great" PFs/Centers in the last 20 years. The only guys that beat him are guys like Rodman, 29.6% and Dwight Howard, 29.6% - two centers.

Kobe: His DRB is 12.6%. Compared to similar players: Jordan : 14.1, James: 17.6, Wade: 11.7, Harden: 11.9, Manu: 13.1 %, McGrady: 15. So Kobe is about average, worse than GOAT Jordan, James, and Manu and slightly better than Wade and Harden.

Assists: TO Ratio

Duncan: 16.5:12.2, Compared to similar players: Barkley: 17.5:14.8, KG: 19.6:11.7, Dirk 13.1:8.9, Malone: 17.6, 12.4. So in regards to other great players, Duncan is about the same. Better than a couple, a little worse than a couple.

Kobe: 24.2:11.6, Compared to similar players: Jordan: 24.9:9.3, James: 34.3:12.1, Wade: 32.2:13.7, Harden:18.3:13.7, Manu: 24.5:14.2, McGrady: 26.3:10.3 So Kobe is worse than Jordan and James (considerably), McGrady, and Wade. He has an advantage over Harden and Manu. So

Blocks and Steals:

Duncan: In terms of Blocks, Duncan is about as good as they come for PFs, topping KG, Malone and Dirk. Tied with Shaq. Hakeen and David Robinson bested him by about 1% respectively (4.6 compared to 5.3 and 5.7).

Kobe : In terms of steals, Kobe is the 2nd to last in the pack. He is bested by Jordan, James, Wade, Harden and Manu. He beats McGrady by .1 %. Jordan is the leader of the pack with 3.1%, so all of them are within 1% of each other.

PER/OTG/DTG/WS/48:

I'm going to group these up, since these give pretty accurate measures of offensive production and the offense/defense rating while on the floor.

PER: Duncan's PER is 24.7, Kobe's is 23.4. None of them have led the league in PER in the regular season.

OTG: This is how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The team's OTG when Duncan is on the floor is 110. Kobe's is 112.

DTG: This is how many points a team gives up per 100 possessions. The team's DTG when Duncan is on the floor is 95. He has led the league in DTG 4 times in the NBA. Kobe's is 105.

NTG: So the Net Rating for Duncan is 15 and Kobe's is 7. I think this shows well how Kobe's teams have had slightly better offense, while Duncan has led the LEAGUE in his defensive rating.

WS/48: Duncan: .214, Kobe: .183.

Conclusion: Outside of scoring, it seems that Duncan has been the better regular season player BY A SLIGHT MARGIN. His offense is at a very elite level, but across the board he is better. When it comes down to it Kobe is better on offense and Duncan is better on defense, but Duncan is closer to Kobe on offense than Kobe is to Duncan on defense. Please do not tell me how many All-Defensive Teams Kobe has been. Even if you do believe ALL of them were deserved the fact is that 7 footers are anchors of the defense. If you look at the list of DPOY awards, 90% of them are Big men for a reason. They simply matter more.

Duncan beats Kobe in PER by 1.3, EFG% by 2.1%, DRB% by 14%, BLK%, DTG by 10, WS/48. Kobe beats Duncan in: TS% by .004, AST% by 7.7%, OTG by 2, TO % and STL %. It seems that Duncan's rebounding is better than Kobe's ability to assist, Duncan's blocking ability compares better than Kobe's ability to steal and Duncan's overall net ratings is more than double that of Kobe's.

So why is it that Duncan only has 4 rings, while Kobe has 5? Lets look at second part of this which is Playoff stats.

I'm not going to go as in depth in this one as you guys are probably falling asleep.

PLAYOFFS:

I want to compare how they're stats compare in the playoffs to the regular season.

Duncan: PER goes up from 24.7 to 25.3, TS% goes down from .551 to .549, eFG goes down from .508 to .502. DRB goes down from 26.6 to 25.7, AST% goes up from 16.5 to 17.5, BLK% goes up by .2%, TOV goes up by .2 %, OTG stays the same, DTG goes up by 3, NTG of 12, WS of .198.

Kobe: PER goes down from 23.4 to 22.4, TS% down from .555 to .541, EFG down from .487 to .48. DRB down from 12.6 to 11.9, AST% down from 24.2 to 23.3, STL% down from 2.1 to 1.9, TOV % down from 11.6 to 11. OTG down from 112 to 110 and DRT up from 105 to 106, So net rating of 4 and WS goes down from .183 to .157.

Notes:

a) Championship Seasons: Duncan PER: 26.45, Kobe: 23.26. What strikes out to me is how Duncan's play has been much higher in the playoffs than of Kobe's. The biggest being the INCREASE in PER, while Kobe's goes to very low levels at 22.4 for an "MVP."

b) Kobe Bryant has shot 40.5 % or under in four out his six NBA Finals appearances (Around 36% in his first and 38% in his fourth appearance). You cannot deny that this is a very bad shooting % over the course of his Finals appearences

c) In year 2000, during the regular season, Bryant averaged almost 29 points and five assists per game. How did these stats translate over to the NBA Finals? They lowered to 15 points and four assists per game. Meanwhile Shaq averaged around 37 points a game and 18 rebounds a game.

d) Was Kobe the 2nd best player on this championship team? YES, was it even close? NO. This follows for the next 2 championships as well. Kobe did have very good series's during the run to the finals, but it can't be denied that during the most critical moment, Kobe was the 2nd fiddle and what is even more important is that his numbers dropped.

e) In the 2004 NBA Finals, Shaq averaged 26.6 points per game with a .631 field goal percentage, while Kobe Bryant averaged 22.6 points per game with a .381 field goal percentage. This is what stands out to me about Kobe. He might have possibly shot his team out of a championship. Was that Pistons's team good? Yes, but there was something during that series that showed that Kobe cared more about getting the Finals MVP more than winning a championship.

f) As a teammate you can't deny that Duncan is a better teammate. He truly makes players around him better. He hasn't feuded with ONE player in his 16 years. It makes a difference.

g) Consistency: Duncan has shown that season in and season out you can count on the Spurs for 50 wins. Out of his 16 years in his league, only about 3 of them were we not serious contenders. For Kobe he has missed the playoffs and also suffered the largest loss in a game 7 of a playoff series. This is where my bias might be coming out, but I believe consistency is important. For Kobe to succeed he has needed the most ideal situations such as Phil Jackson, Shaq, Pau, Bynum and very good players. He was given the opportunity to lead the team, but instead never trusted his teammates (he had other team mates than Kwame brown FYI) and needed a true star next to him. While Parker and Gino were good Parker didn't really hit his prime till a couple years ago and Gino was never a top 10 player like Shaq or Gasol.

Please share your thoughts.

Regular Season:

SCORING:

Rebounding:

Assists: TO Ratio

Blocks and Steals:

PER/OTG/DTG/WS/48:

I'm going to group these up, since these give pretty accurate measures of offensive production and the offense/defense rating while on the floor.

PER: Duncan's PER is 24.7, Kobe's is 23.4. None of them have led the league in PER in the regular season.

OTG: This is how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The team's OTG when Duncan is on the floor is 110. Kobe's is 112.

DTG: This is how many points a team gives up per 100 possessions. The team's DTG when Duncan is on the floor is 95. He has led the league in DTG 4 times in the NBA. Kobe's is 105.

NTG: So the Net Rating for Duncan is 15 and Kobe's is 7. I think this shows well how Kobe's teams have had slightly better offense, while Duncan has led the LEAGUE in his defensive rating.

WS/48: Duncan: .214, Kobe: .183.

So why is it that Duncan only has 4 rings, while Kobe has 5? Lets look at second part of this which is Playoff stats.

I'm not going to go as in depth in this one as you guys are probably falling asleep.

PLAYOFFS:

I want to compare how they're stats compare in the playoffs to the regular season.

Notes:

f) As a teammate you can't deny that Duncan is a better teammate. He truly makes players around him better. He hasn't feuded with ONE player in his 16 years. It makes a difference.

Please share your thoughts.

Recapping the OKC series and bringing back painful memories

forrestgump52 — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 04:37:12 -0000

There's been constant discussion about the painful 6 game WCF series in which our beloved Spurs fell to Stern's beloved Thunder. Things started out promising with a 2-0 lead, but there were signs that our team was due for a fall. Unfortunately, the next few games we saw the Spurs offensive machine hit a few kinks. Game 3 was a blowout, while games 4,5 and 6 were all lost in close, painful fashion. Impressively, even with the Spurs playing at "B" level on offense, they were able to be extremely competitive in these games. If it wasn't for some shady officiating in Game 6, there was a good chance we'd have a game 7 at the AT&T center. I thought there were some shady calls in game 4, but we'll set that aside for this analysis. I'm not going to do a thorough analysis, but want to point out some highlights that even I myself, having watched and pretty much breathed Spurs basketball 24/7 have forgotten. Here it goes!

Game 1: Spurs win 101-98.

Key Points:

-Spurs go into 4th with a 9 point deficit

-Manu is player of the game with 26 points (9/14 FG), 5 reb, 3 ast, 3 TO in 34 minutes.

-From the +/- it seems as if the bench really won this game, with 3/5 starters in - (guess which 2 weren't...).

-Big 3 of OKC all have decent games, but as a team shoot 42% compared to Spurs 45%

Things that should change from last year:

-Tiago only played 13 minutes, while Bonner played 10. I can't see these minutes taking place in a close game this eyar

-Boris Diaw will not be starting and Gary Neal might not be in the rotation

Game 2: Spurs win 120-111.

Key Points:

-Spurs play great, esp in the 3rd quarter and hold off Thunder in the 4th

-To quickly summarize the big 3: tony has 34 points/ 8 assists, Manu also scores 20 on 11 shots, while Timmy struggles on offense, but holds down the fort on D

-Kawhi steps up with 18/10

-Spurs hit 55% on 3's, 43% on 3s, have 27 assists to only 13 TOs

-On the OKC side, Big 3 combine for 88 points on very good shooting, but the rest of the team combines for 7/34 shooting.

Things that will change:

-Harden scored 30 points on 13 shots. I just can't see Martin having this type of game.

-Splitter played 11 mintues compared to Bonner's 17. Once again, can't see this happening.

Game 3: Spurs lose 82-102.

Key Points:

Gonna keep this short. Spurs won 20 in a row, and they were bound for a loss. OKC played well as a team. Had 5 ppl in double figures, with Thabo having 19. Duncan took 15 shots for some reason and Anderson had 15 minutes of playing time...I think we know what that means. This one was over before the 4th quarter.

Things that will change:

To be honest, hard to find any hear. This was just an example of the Spurs having a stalled offense (shot 39%). OKC only shot 45% which is pretty low for a team that wins by 20.

Game 4: Spurs lose 103-109.

Key Points:

-OKC takes over in 4th quarter

-Tony held to 12 points (on 15 shots). Scoring is made up by Tim (21 from 17 shots), Diaw (12 from 11), Manu (13 from 7), Jack (11 from 6), Kawhi (17 from 8).

-Infamous Ibaka 11/11 game, with Harden/Westbrook only combining for 18 points. Durant scores 36, even Perkins scores 15.

Things that will Change:

-This is when Pop starts messing with the lineup. Blair takes over as the 3rd big, with Bonner/Splitter playing a combined 7 minutes

-The Spurs were close, they shot 50% FG, and 47% from 3 (made 11). Really the game was lost on defense, as OKC shot 56%

-IBAKA game was NOT a FLUKE- i analyzed his 11 shots a couple days ago. 6 were WIDE OPEN jumpers. A couple were jab steps, but most a byproduct of their Big 3 driving. Ibaka is a good jump shooter and while 6/6 is a bit lucky, you can expect him to make at least 3/6. He had a good day, which is to be expected in a 7 game series. The other 5 shots were point blank dunks or layups (by product of Big 3).

Game 5: Spurs lose 103-108.

Key Points:

-OKC won this with their big 3 combining for 70 points and 20 assists. Some solid 6 points from 3-4 reserves as well

-This is when our lineup just became a mess: Manu started and played a great game and played 34 mintues. Danny Green went from starter to playing 3 minutes.

-TO's doomed the Spurs as we had 21- TWENTY ONE, to only 23 assists. You can't win playoff games with 21 TOs. This is when our box score started looking like OKC's with the Big 3 trying to carry the load (and Jack who had 13 on good shooting). And OUR bench was the one with all the -'s.

Things that will change:

-Jack played will and for 30 minutes. At this point, I'm not sure if he's gonna be able to find his stroke soon enough to play for 30 min.

-I don't think Green will go as cold as he did last year to play only 3 mintues. I think his 3 pt shot has evolved where he's more confident and able to hit with hands in his face

Game 6: Spurs lose 99-107.

Key Points:

-this game was a heart breaker. We had a 15 point halftime lead with jack going ape shit. I felt like the 15 point lead got cut into 5 when at the halftime buzzer Durant nailed a 3 with Jack draped over him. If I remember correctly, we lost most of that lead in the first 4/5 minutes and only had a 1 pt lead going into the 4th.

-Tony finally came alive after being dormant for most of the series (barring game 2). Scored 29 with 12 assists (only 1 TO).

-Manu looked gassed from his 38 minutes in Game 5. Started again and played heavy minutes, but only scored 10 on 12 shots.

-By this time the bench was GONE. literally gone. Other than Jack who played 32 minutes and Neal who played 20, the rest of them combined for 4 minutes and 0 points. We went from a deep team to a rotation of 7.

-OKC won this with their big 3 combining for 75 points. Durant played for 48 minutes and scored 34 and brought down 14 rebounds. This was his night.

Things that will (hopefully ) change:

-REFS. This game was infuriating to watch with the refs in the 4th quarter. No doubt they changed the complexion of the game.

-Our bench won't hopefully disappear.

Summary:

Really interesting going back and looking at the box score.

-I never realized how Tiago was invisible the whole series. He can really bring a dift dimension to this series. If he can force Perkins to stay in the game (With Diaw in the game, they could put Durant on him and go small), it gives the Spurs a better chance of limiting a dreaded lineup of : WB, Martin, Thabo, Durant, Ibaka.

-I'm also scared that we underestimated capt jack. his +/- numbers were always + and Kawhi really did struggle to defend Durant.

-Harden's impact was bigger than what his box score said. While he didn't score too many points (he only had 2 games with 20+ points), he did run the 2nd unit well and their bench outplayed ours. That simply cannot happen this year. I believe if we can make them a 2 person team we can win. If Martin is able to score his 17 points on efficient scoring (like he has), I'm not sure we can beat them.

-Tony needs to put up 20/10 every game. He can't have 12 point games with 4 TOs.

-Manu needs to score about 20 and limit his TOs. Manu had 20 assists to 23 TOs. That is simply unacceptable. I think he needs to focus more on making the simpler passes instead of trying to thread it in there. A long, energetic defense like OKC really just ate up Manu's passes last year.

-Our role players have to up. I'm talking about Green hitting his 3s. Kawhi needs to defend Durant. Tiago needs to be physical and roll hard to the basket.

Game 1: Spurs win 101-98.

Key Points:

-Spurs go into 4th with a 9 point deficit

-Manu is player of the game with 26 points (9/14 FG), 5 reb, 3 ast, 3 TO in 34 minutes.

-From the +/- it seems as if the bench really won this game, with 3/5 starters in - (guess which 2 weren't...).

-Big 3 of OKC all have decent games, but as a team shoot 42% compared to Spurs 45%

Things that should change from last year:

-Tiago only played 13 minutes, while Bonner played 10. I can't see these minutes taking place in a close game this eyar

-Boris Diaw will not be starting and Gary Neal might not be in the rotation

Game 2: Spurs win 120-111.

Key Points:

-Spurs play great, esp in the 3rd quarter and hold off Thunder in the 4th

-To quickly summarize the big 3: tony has 34 points/ 8 assists, Manu also scores 20 on 11 shots, while Timmy struggles on offense, but holds down the fort on D

-Kawhi steps up with 18/10

-Spurs hit 55% on 3's, 43% on 3s, have 27 assists to only 13 TOs

-On the OKC side, Big 3 combine for 88 points on very good shooting, but the rest of the team combines for 7/34 shooting.

Things that will change:

-Harden scored 30 points on 13 shots. I just can't see Martin having this type of game.

-Splitter played 11 mintues compared to Bonner's 17. Once again, can't see this happening.

Game 3: Spurs lose 82-102.

Key Points:

Things that will change:

To be honest, hard to find any hear. This was just an example of the Spurs having a stalled offense (shot 39%). OKC only shot 45% which is pretty low for a team that wins by 20.

Game 4: Spurs lose 103-109.

Key Points:

-OKC takes over in 4th quarter

-Tony held to 12 points (on 15 shots). Scoring is made up by Tim (21 from 17 shots), Diaw (12 from 11), Manu (13 from 7), Jack (11 from 6), Kawhi (17 from 8).

-Infamous Ibaka 11/11 game, with Harden/Westbrook only combining for 18 points. Durant scores 36, even Perkins scores 15.

Things that will Change:

-This is when Pop starts messing with the lineup. Blair takes over as the 3rd big, with Bonner/Splitter playing a combined 7 minutes

-The Spurs were close, they shot 50% FG, and 47% from 3 (made 11). Really the game was lost on defense, as OKC shot 56%

Game 5: Spurs lose 103-108.

Key Points:

-OKC won this with their big 3 combining for 70 points and 20 assists. Some solid 6 points from 3-4 reserves as well

-This is when our lineup just became a mess: Manu started and played a great game and played 34 mintues. Danny Green went from starter to playing 3 minutes.

Things that will change:

-Jack played will and for 30 minutes. At this point, I'm not sure if he's gonna be able to find his stroke soon enough to play for 30 min.

-I don't think Green will go as cold as he did last year to play only 3 mintues. I think his 3 pt shot has evolved where he's more confident and able to hit with hands in his face

Game 6: Spurs lose 99-107.

Key Points:

-Tony finally came alive after being dormant for most of the series (barring game 2). Scored 29 with 12 assists (only 1 TO).

-Manu looked gassed from his 38 minutes in Game 5. Started again and played heavy minutes, but only scored 10 on 12 shots.

-OKC won this with their big 3 combining for 75 points. Durant played for 48 minutes and scored 34 and brought down 14 rebounds. This was his night.

Things that will (hopefully ) change:

-REFS. This game was infuriating to watch with the refs in the 4th quarter. No doubt they changed the complexion of the game.

-Our bench won't hopefully disappear.

Summary:

Really interesting going back and looking at the box score.

-I'm also scared that we underestimated capt jack. his +/- numbers were always + and Kawhi really did struggle to defend Durant.

-Tony needs to put up 20/10 every game. He can't have 12 point games with 4 TOs.

-Our role players have to up. I'm talking about Green hitting his 3s. Kawhi needs to defend Durant. Tiago needs to be physical and roll hard to the basket.

How I Would Beat the Spurs

forrestgump52 — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 02:20:42 -0000

One of the game commentators the other day was saying how he thought the Philly players look like they hadn't read the scouting report on the Spurs. It got me thinking how if I was a coach I would try to stop and score on the Spurs. Here are a few of my thoughts, which I hope no other opposing coaches read =]. Share your thoughts as well!

Overall, I would be physical as much as possible. Because the Spurs rely so much on cuts and passes, a bit of pushing and wrist slapping would usually hurt the Spurs more than the other team. Refs don't call as many fouls if a player hits your arm while passing as much as when you would shoot.

Individual players:

Tony Parker: Make him shoot the 18 footer and make him a scorer. Tony's 18 footer has improved a lot, but he does go through a lot of cold stretches and its much better than him creating havoc in the paint. Teams that usually beat the Spurs are able to limit TP in the paint (going underneath screens and putting longer defenders on him) and allow him to shoot 18 footers (which he also stops shooting if he misses a couple).

Tim Duncan: Duncan has lost the ability to post up better defenders such as kendrick perkins or a marc gasol. He has his bright points (such as the dunk on gasol), but he's no longer a force that can pound it and create good looks. One weak point ive noticed lately is he doesn't use his left hand to shoot a lot.

Manu: Make him a scorer and go right. As Manu starts to regain his form this might be a bad idea. Also making him a passer could be better as he tends to be turnover prone.

Not going to go into to much detail on the other players. Most of them cannot create their own shot consistently(Green, Leonard, DeColo, Diaw) and can be TO prone when trying to run the PNR. I would also keep base on shooters and make cutters try to finish on their own inside.

On defense, I would try to keep Duncan away from the basket as much as possible. He's best at protecting the rim. Run the high PnR since we lack athletic bigs ( I bet no one knew this!).

Overall I would try to make the Spurs a 1v1 iso ball team rather than the fluent passing team they are by being physical and staying home on shooters.

Please share your thoughts!

Individual players:

Manu: Make him a scorer and go right. As Manu starts to regain his form this might be a bad idea. Also making him a passer could be better as he tends to be turnover prone.

On defense, I would try to keep Duncan away from the basket as much as possible. He's best at protecting the rim. Run the high PnR since we lack athletic bigs ( I bet no one knew this!).

Overall I would try to make the Spurs a 1v1 iso ball team rather than the fluent passing team they are by being physical and staying home on shooters.

Please share your thoughts!

Do the Spurs have the signs of a championship contender?

forrestgump52 — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 07:42:37 -0000

Hope everyone is enjoying Thanksgiving weekend! There's been a lot of talk about the Spurs being a regular season team and not having what it takes to win a championship. I've been thinking about it too, and I keep thinking of characteristics of past championship teams.

Obviously this season is still very young and with Kawhi/Capt Jack out it and the flu going around its hard to judge this team. So far I like how we've progressed since the Memphis disaster. We picked up kawhi/green/capt jack who are three"nasty" and versatile players and got rid of RJ. We got Diaw, who might be soft but one of the smartest passers (to the point of frustration). The best part about this season is that these players are going to have a full season to work together (we already see improvements in the tiago/tim pairing) and let Pop experiment. While were probably still going to win 60 games, there are improvements this team needs to make to elevate them selves from contender to favorite.

1) DEFENSE

TREND: There are a lot of stats to measure defense, but I feel opposing FG % is a pretty good way to get a feel for it. In the past 6 years no one has allowed opponents to shoot better than 45% from the FG (most were < 44.5%) and no one has ranked outside the top 7. Unfortunately the Spurs of the past 3 years have failed to hold opponents to less than 45% (they've been somewhere btwn 45.2 and 45.7 which is usually top 15)

CURRENTLY: Allowing 44.7% !!! Which is the lowest since the 2007-8 season. GOOD SIGN. I'm not going too deep into which opponents we've played and what they average, but this will be an important stat to keep in mind as the season progresses. Also, as a side note, the Spurs always are in the bottom 3 of committing fouls so they're not giving away easy points. Speaking of easy points...

2) EASY POINTS

I remember a quote from Charles Barkley when the Spurs were playing the Suns. He said during halftime if the Spurs come out and get a few easy buckets from Duncan, theyre going to win the game. What do you know... Duncan comes out and gets a few nice post moves on Amare and the Spurs go on to win the game and series.

TREND: i have no stats to show for this, but lets use the eye test. Since the Jordan Bulls (earliest team I personally can remember), championship teams have been able to get points when they really need to. Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq, Wade (didn't realize you could hire personal escorts to the FT line), Kobe, Dirk, Lebron. These guys could get you two points when you most need them and could also get to the FT line if their game was off. In the playoffs its impossible to shoot a high FG % every single game, so it is essential to get easy points. Basically you need a scorer than can put up 30 any given night and play from start to finish.

CURRENTLY: We don't have a scorer like any of those mentioned above. Someone we can just rely on getting two points or someone who can take over the game. This is why I want Tony to get to the line more often. I guarantee you he's not going to post up a 15/21 stat line against the heat/thunder/lakers in the playoffs. There's too much contact, too much physicality and not enough space. Tony hardly gets to the line for how often he's flying in the paint, but he's going to need to in the playoffs when he's bound to have an off night.

3) ITS A STAR'S LEAGUE

You need a star that can play for 40+ minutes. Durant and Lebron are freaks. Duncan is a freak. Jordan was a freak. We need a freak or the 04 pistons defense. I hope Tony can be our freak. He needs to be able to play for 40+ minutes because believe me, patty mills is effective against 2nd units but not against the miami heat starting 5.

I'll finish up my fanpost with a couple notes

-our offense didn't score a ton of points in our championship years but it still shot at a top 3 FG% and top 3 3 PT %, which means we had a great offense, we just didn't run as much

-lets remember OUR championship teams, we didn't have a DEEP bench, we had important ROLE players, but nothing more. not guys that we relied on to play well every game to have a shot of winning (didn't matter if a danny green type coudn't hit 3s or someone got winter shoes)

In conclusion, I think our team is rounding up nicely with guys that can make this team a top 5 defensive unit. We need to be able to lean on parker and the big 3 during clutch time like we did against the pacers today. Thank you for reading! Feel free to prove me wrong as much as possible!

1) DEFENSE

2) EASY POINTS

3) ITS A STAR'S LEAGUE

I'll finish up my fanpost with a couple notes

-our offense didn't score a ton of points in our championship years but it still shot at a top 3 FG% and top 3 3 PT %, which means we had a great offense, we just didn't run as much

Don't Look Now, the Spurs are Changing Their Game

forrestgump52 — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 00:29:09 -0000

Don't Look Now, the Spurs are Changing Their Game

Interesting article. Great videos of some of the different plays the Spurs are running in addition to the PnR

Running Game Analysis with (semi) advanced stats!

forrestgump52 — Sun, 07 Oct 2012 07:20:18 -0000

Discuss one of the most debated topics of the season with

By now everyone knows the basic stats.

D. Sproles: 12 carries 6.8 YPC

PT: 28 carries with a 5.4 YPC

Ingram: 32 carries 2.8 YPC

Now for some stats that will show the real picture:

Stats: The saints have rushed the ball 75 times this year for 4.3 YPC (4.9 last year). We are running the ball 28% of the time (compared to 40% last year). However, if you subtract the two longest runs of the season (48 by PT on a 1st down, 47 by DS on a third down) we are left with 73 carries at a 3.1 YPC.

Analysis: Bad job on carmichael establishing the run considering the Saints haven't been down by huge amounts in all our games.

Stats: 58 of those 75 times have been on first down. That means 77% of our runs are on first down (compared to 52% from last year).

On First: 58 for 3.6 YPC

Second: 13 for 4.8 YPC

Third: 4 for 12.8 YPC

Analysis: Part of the reason our run isn't doing so well is because the offense is extremely predictable. We can't even surprise our opponent with the run that only happens 28% of the time, because they know we'll do it on first down. The few times we have run on 2nd/3rd down we've done extremely well.

Stats: 23 carries for 5.4 YPC in the first quarter, 14 carries for 5.8 YPC in 4th quarter. 38 carries combined in 2nd/3rd quarter for YPC of 3.1 YPC.

Analysis: Not sure what to make of this...but on further analysis the long runs of 47 and 48 in the 1st/4th quarter might skew with the facts...

Stats: 12% of runs to the left/right sideline as compared to 25% last year.

Analysis: So the opponent already knows that theres almost an 80% chance were going to run on first down. On top of that they know its either going to be right/left or down the middle. They don't even need to worry about guarding outside the numbers. We might as well be telling them our play.

Stats: Sproles has 23 receptions, PT has 11, Ingram has 1

Analysis: Ingram has a low YPC because teams don't have to respect any sort of pass to him, keying up on simply stopping the run.

Look at the end of the day, none of our RBs are doing that well. PT and DS have broken of two long runs, but other than that theyve been bottled up as well. I'm putting the blame squarely on our play calling. It's pretty simple. Run on first, pass on second and third. No RB can do well like that. Just look at the stats from last year, and you'll see it was much more balanced on all downs and the play calling was varied.

Super Bowl 44 Mic'd Up. What Sean Payton brings to the table He really gets after players that...

forrestgump52 — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 23:42:04 -0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrlOFDWkLL4

Super Bowl 44 Mic'd Up. What Sean Payton brings to the table

He really gets after players that make a mistake. After Bell failed to convert on 3rd and goal he yelled at him for having the wrong shoes on. After Freeny got a sack of brees in Colts territory Payton yelled at him and told the players to improve their body language. And of course his chemistry with Brees

How Bucs stopped Cam Newton-Breakdown

forrestgump52 — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 20:44:59 -0000

How Bucs stopped Cam Newton-Breakdown

(NOT saints related) "They Won’t Magically Turn You Into A Lustful Cockmonster": Chris Kluwe Explains Gay Marriage To The Politician Who Is Offended By An NFL Player Supporting It

forrestgump52 — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 17:45:35 -0000

(NOT saints related) "They Won’t Magically Turn You Into A Lustful Cockmonster": Chris Kluwe Explains Gay Marriage To The Politician Who Is Offended By An NFL Player Supporting It

Thought it was a funny read and relevant cause of the football players. Please keep any political arguments civil and polite!

Most Dominant Ranking the Champs

forrestgump52 — Tue, 22 May 2012 17:35:43 -0000

Most Dominant Ranking the Champs

If you want to read another article where the spurs titles are getting trashed...3 of their titles are in the bottom 7 of least dominant and the most dominant (2003) is 9th overall. sometimes he uses stats to back up his points, and when they dont go his way he makes stupid arguments

ESPN crew, including Magic, praising the Spurs. hope this gets some airtime

forrestgump52 — Sat, 19 May 2012 23:51:05 -0000

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7950224

ESPN crew, including Magic, praising the Spurs. hope this gets some airtime

The Spurs "Weak" Action

forrestgump52 — Wed, 02 May 2012 22:35:17 -0000

The Spurs "Weak" Action

NBA playbook looks at the spurs "weak" action.

This is a great breakdown of the play that sets up so many of the Spurs plays that we see so often. Watching these videos and reading the descriptions really helps you understand everything that's going on in a particular play.

And the absence of this kind of motion makes it easy to see when the Spurs are about to get chewed out by Pop for not "running the offense."

Sean Payton and the Saints traded their souls to bring New Orleans a Super Bowl title

forrestgump52 — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 06:01:14 -0000

Sean Payton and the Saints traded their souls to bring New Orleans a Super Bowl title

One of the more hysterical/maddening articles I've read on the Saints.

Highlights:
"Now Payton is gone for a year, probably never to return to the Saints. He can’t come back. Not after this. Without their genius play-caller and the man who burned so much to win, the Saints are done as a Super Bowl contender. "

"What good is Drew Brees without the man who made him one of the league’s best quarterbacks? Slowly the great offensive machine collapses. A football darkness falls in New Orleans again."

Return of Z-Bo

forrestgump52 — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 08:42:47 -0000

Not sure if anyone noticed his return yesterday with the excitement surrounding the Spurs (and the fact that Memphis lost to Toronto at home...). Z-Bo aka Spurs killer from last year dropped 25 (9/14 shooting, 7/14 from FT),9 Reb,1 Ast, 2 Steals, 0 TO in 25 minutes. The Grizzlies look a lot more formidable with him in the lineup and have to instantly move up to the top of teams we do not want to face in the playoffs. Given the 3 day break before the next Spurs game, I was wondering what other teams people think would give us the most trouble as well on how the Grizzlies will do with Gay/Randolph.

12 men on the field strategy?

forrestgump52 — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:29:07 -0000

I'm thinking if the Saints should have done what the Giants did (not sure if it was an accident or on purpose) against the Pats in the last 30 seconds.

With about 18 seconds to go, the Giants had 12 players on the field. The play ended with Brady throwing an in-completion far down the right sideline. The 12th guy on the field obviously helped the Giants not give up a huge play by still having 4 linemen rush/disrupt Brady and have 8 people drop in coverage. The Pats got 5 yards but lost 9 valuable seconds (or half the time remaining).

Should the Saints have had 12 men on the field against the 49ers and given up 5 yards instead of the TD to Vernon Davis? The 49ers would have moved to the 9 yard line and probably kicked a FG with only 8 seconds or so left on the clock.

Maybe it doesn't pertain to the situation I just mentioned, but I could certainly think of a few situations where this strategy would work (maybe late in the game against the titans/falcons). If a team needs a TD to tie/win and is deep in its own territory with less then a minute remaining this strategy could work on a couple plays. It couldn't be done on every snap or the offense would take advantage of the free play . Just a thought..and first FanPost.