SB Nation User Blog: fourstick

My uncle put together this cool trophy case for his 2006 World Championship Budweiser Bottle. If...

fourstick — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:41:13 -0000

My uncle put together this cool trophy case for his 2006 World Championship Budweiser Bottle. If anyone else has a bottle and is interested in having a display case made for it, just post a comment in here and I'll see if he's interested in doing them.

Hall of Fall at the WWL

fourstick — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:08:58 -0000

Hall of Fall at the WWL

Just some interesting things to vote on here, so I thought I'd pass it along, even though it is the WWL. I voted for Gibby, Brett, Ruth, Gehrig, and Jackson as my 5 guys for greatest players in postseason history.

Albert Pujols is ridiculous -- Graph Version

fourstick — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:32:17 -0000

Albert Pujols is ridiculous -- Graph Version

Also interesting to look at some of the other guys on that list.

MLB.tv Premium now available on Roku players

fourstick — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 20:32:06 -0000

MLB.tv Premium now available on Roku players

Addtional link to mlb.com

I don't know how many people would be interested in this service, but if you're an mlb.tv subscriber and hate watching games on your computer, this might be an option for you. I've used the Roku player for a little over a year now for my Netflix subscription and to stream HD titles from Amazon.com and it's a slick little device for streaming web video, now I just wish they'd add Hulu to the mix...

Phillies Land Cliff Lee

fourstick — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:41:26 -0000

Phillies Land Cliff Lee

Looks like they're getting Ben Francisco as well, for four minor leaguers.

UPDATE:

Looks like the prospects are P Carlos Carrasco, SS Jason Donald, C Lou Marson, and P Jason Knapp. None of those guys were mentioned in the Halladay deal, but Sickels' has them all ranked in the Phillies top 10 prospects in his preseason 2009 list, with Carrasco and Donald being top 5 guys.

Cardinal Payroll Obligations

fourstick — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:08:25 -0000

I've put together a Cardinal Roster Matrix with payroll obligations for 2010 here. I've created a couple of different scenarios for what might happen next year and beyond if we sign Matt Holliday. If we don't sign Holliday (which would make today's trade a really, really bad move), we have an approximate payroll of $65M (I factored in arb raised for Skip and Ludwick) and holes at 4 positions: LF, 3B, SP, SP.

Scenario #1: We Sign Holliday for $15M per season and replace 3B, SP, SP from the farm.

Essentially this means our 4th and 5th starters are some mix of Boggs/Garcia/Thompson/Hawksworth/Lynn and our 3B is David Freese or Allen Craig (or, god forbid, Julio Lugo). You can see that our payroll is less than this season ($83M), but we've replaced Derosa with a replacement level player and replaced Piniero and Welley with replacement level pitchers (Which, in Welley's case might be an improvement). I see no way that this team wins 85 games (a .500 team is what I would assume), and that's without factoring in any injuries which would totally hose our pitching staff. Bullpen looks great though. This leaves us room to sign a mid-level starter to fill the 4th rotation spot, or to get a decent FA 3B, speaking of which:

Scenario #2: We sign Holliday for $15M per season, Derosa for $8M per season, SP and SP from the farm.

Brings us up to right around the current 2009 payroll of $88M, plus around $3M in raises, but we still have two replacement level starters and no pitching depth in case of injury to any players. I would expect the Pythag for this team to be worse than this year -- somewhere around 85 wins due to the replacement level pitching at the back end of the rotation. There's a way to combat that problem though...

Scenario #3: Holliday, $15M; Derosa, $8M; Pineiro (or other starter), $10M; Other SP from the farm (Boggs/Thompson).

Now we're over $100M, we still don't have a lot of depth anywhere, but our rotation is better than it was in the previous two scenarios. If Carp stays healthy and Lohse and Piniero (or whoever) give us #3 starter stuff, we're looking at around 90 wins I'd say, given that Piniero will be worth at least 3 wins this season. Do we want to give a guy with a career year a $10M deal? Do we want to give any pitcher in this offseason $10M a year when we're already spending a good chunk of change on our top 3 starters? I don't, but we don't have much choice if we want to win ballgames. The better question is: Does ownership want to spend $98M on a team that probably isn't good enough to win 90+ games? I'm not sure I would if I'm taking a $10M loss each of those seasons.

Some things that I haven't factored in here:

I have not discussed signing Albert long term, but you can see from the matrix that if you plug in $20-$25M per season starting in 2012, You're talking about a payroll of around $110M, which is more than Dewitt has ever spent (even adjusting for inflation) in any one season since he bought the team.
I have not discussed locking up Rasmus' arbitration years either. He'll be cheap in 2011, but he'll be a Super 2 guy for sure in 2012, and will get very expensive after that if he lives up to his potential. If he doesn't, we're really screwed as a ballclub. If he does, better to lock him up now (like they did with WW and Molina) until 2014 for less money that what he'll surely cost in arbitration. That could be the difference between a $110M team and a $116M team. Seems worth it to me.
Ludwick will earn a big payday (barring injury and falling off a cliff) in 2012, making 2012 a really expensive year if Pujols extension starts that season.

Any way you slice it, paying Holliday the market rate for even a 3 year contract (which he won't accept probably) gets prohibitively expensive if you want to compete, extend Albert, and have a decent pitching staff. You're looking at $100-$110M if you want to have a similar roster to the one we have after the Holliday trade for the next 3 seasons ('09,'10,'11). That's some serious coin for a team that, on paper, would be about a 90 win team (i.e. not as good as the Cubs last season). Let me know if I've missed anything and I'll add it to the sheet.

Poll

Will the Cardinals move payroll above $100M a year to compete through the 2012 season?

Yes

294 votes

No

102 votes

396 votes | Poll has closed

SBNation Gets More Funding

fourstick — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:46:20 -0000

SBNation Gets More Funding

$8M more after an initial $5M that was raised last year. So SBNation, right now, has made less money than Alfonso Soriano will make this season. Not sure what this says about sports blogs....

Series Preview -- L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

fourstick — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:44:37 -0000

Phew, glad to have that Rockets series over with -- maybe this team has learned a little bit about itself and how it really needs to bring it every night, especially on the defensive end. FWIW, Cleveland sweeps that series and wins Game 4 (no Yao) by 40 on Houston's home floor. You cannot underestimate how good the Lil' Lebron's are playing right now: 8 Playoff wins, all by double digits, and playing ridiculously good team defense. They're clearly the favorite right now, especially after they paste Orlando in the first two games of the Eastern Finals. Mark my words, it's going to happen.

A few key points about the Western Finals before I get to breaking down the matchups:

Both of these teams like to run, but I think the Lakers are in trouble if they get into a track meet with Denver on the road. The elevation will be a factor, and our bigs will get worn out quicker than theirs will, which will spell trouble in the fourth quarter.
It's imperative that the Lakers hold home court the first two games. Denver is not a lockdown team at home (as they exhibited in Game 3 of the semifinals), but letting them steal one and go home with the series tied will have their fans fired up and thinking their team can win this series.
Andrew Bynum must play like he did on Sunday for this whole series.
I see Shannon Brown getting a lot of minutes in this series because he's big and physical and is a much better matchup for Billups and Carter than Farmar is.

The Matchups:

Key Defensive Matchup: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony:

If the Nuggets are smart (insert Bucks era George Karl joke here) they'll post Anthony on the right block against Ariza A LOT, and force the Lakers to double or allow Ariza to end up in foul trouble while Carmelo gets going by hitting 12 foot fadeaways or getting layups at the rim. Ariza's length can bother Carmelo on the perimeter but Anthony could physically dominate him in the post, as we saw Artest was able to do, when he wanted to, in the Rockets series. This matchup is an area of concern in a halfcourt setting and in key possessions down the stretch. In fact, I think that Odom should probably play Anthony in the fourth quarter with Ariza playing JR Smith or Chauncey Billups (more on this in a minute).

Key Defensive Question: Who guards Chauncey Billups?

If the Nuggets are going to start Dahntay Jones as their "Kobe slower-downer" then Fisher should guard Billups and Kobe matches up against Jones and plays defensive free safety, which is really when he's at his best on the defensive end -- jumping into passing lanes and diving from the perimeter to the post on double teams. The problem comes up when the Nuggets go to their best lineup, which is Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. If the Lakers go big, then Odom guards Anthony, Kobe guards Smith, and Brown/Fish guards Billups. I don't think the Lakers can go small here unless they play two guards like Fish/Brown/Sasha together with Kobe at the small forward. Kobe's not a good matchup against Anthony, so this wouldn't be a good lineup for the Lakers. Farmar really shouldn't get a lot of minutes in this series unless he's knocking down 70% of his threes.

That's really the concern in this series: If Karl plays that lineup 50% of the time, the Lakers are really going to have matchup problems because they're going to end up with an undersized forward playing Anthony OR a small guard playing Billups, and neither of those are desireable matchups for the Lakers. Don't get me wrong, I think that they match up better with the Nugs' big guards better than they do the Rockets waterbug guards.

Key Offensive Matchups: Gasol/Bynum vs. Martin/Nene

This should concern the hell out of Phil Jackson. Both Martin and Nene are physical low post defenders, similar to, oh, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett last year for the Celtics. The biggest single reason that the Lakers lost the Finals last year was that Perkins beat the holy crap out of Gasol in the post and Pau disappeared in that series. This could be the same situation, which is why both Pau and Bynum have to play like men in this series. We witnessed what Chuck Hayes did to Gasol just by being physical, and he was giving up 6 inches to him -- Martin and Nene are his size, and so is Birdman (he's taller if you count his ridiculous haircut). If Denver turns the Lakers into a jump-shooting team, the series is over in 5 games -- look at what happened when the Rockets made L.A. a jump shooting team in Games 4 and 6 of the semis, and the Nuggets are heads and shoulders better offensively than that Rockets team. Gasol and Bynum must average a 32-20 between them to create enough offensive balance for the Lakers to thrive.

Key Offensive Question: Which Lamar Odom will we get?

Look, we know Kobe will get 30 at least twice in this series, and we know that Gasol and Bynum are question marks due to the physical nature of the defenders they're going to see. That leaves Odom.

If the Nuggets guard him with Carmelo, the Lakers should run the triangle with Odom on the block and let the offense run though him. Anthony reminds me of Charles Barkley -- he's as tough a matchup as there is offensively, but you can get back a whole lot of the points he scores on the other end by taking advantage of him defensively. Odom should dominate Anthony and force the Nuggets to put Kenyon Martin on him (which I think they will anyway), but that should open up the lane a little more for Kobe to drive and for Gasol/Bynum to get good looks at the basket.

This is my personal opinion, but I think the entire series really hinges on Lamar Odom. If he can be a go to guy offensively, hit 70% of his free throws and 35% of his 3's, then he is a huge matchup problem for the Nuggets because they simply don't have a player that can guard him if Phil plays their best lineup 35% of the time (Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Bryant, Fisher). My biggest fear is that Phil will play Odom at the 4 spot and allow Kenyon Martin to completely dominate him in the series (which he will), rendering the matchup problem useless for the Lakers. I would hope the Zen-Master is smart enough to use the Lakers' post rotation to keep Martin and Nene busy while leaving Anthony, Smith, Billups, Jones, and Kleiza to man the Laker backcourt.

My favorite Laker lineup in this series? Bryant, Ariza/Vujacic, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum. Think about it for a second. Lamar brings the ball up as a Pippen type point forward, Ariza/Vujacic bothers the holy hell out of Chauncey Billups defensively, and the Nuggets have no way to hide both Anthony and Smith on defense. One of those two will have to guard Odom or Bryant, and Martin wouldn't guard Lamar if he's bringing the ball up because it would wear him out. That lineup is matchup hell for the Nuggets. However, according to 82games.com, that lineup hasn't seen the floor all season, so don't expect to see it in this series.

Key Intangibles:

Turnovers and Fast Break Points:

The Nuggets are not good at taking care of the ball - Anthony/Smith/Nene/Billups average around 11 turnovers per 36 minutes as a whole. That's quite a few. This should give the Lakers some opportunities for easy points.

If the Lakers end up in jump shooting mode, this is what will kill them. Games 4 and 6 against the Rockets were marred with turnovers and poor ball movement, and the Nuggets will turn a lot of turnovers into points, much more than the Rockets did.

Officiating:

If the series is called closely, advantage L.A. because the Lakers have a deeper bench and the Nuggets lose the advantage of physical post play disrupting Gasol's aggressiveness. If it becomes a physical series, and it probably will, I think this favors the Nuggets because they have very aggressive and physical offensive players that are all excellent free throw shooters.

Bench Play:

Walton/Brown/Vujacic/Farmar > Smith/Kleiza/Anderson/Carter

It just has to be, right? If not, the Lakers will have trouble holding leads and will have to play Kobe, Lamar, and Pau more in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Not a good idea when you're playing at altitude in Denver.

Overall Series:

1. I see Anthony and Billups having very good series' against the Lakers.

2. Kobe should have at least one game of 40+ and possibly even two, and he should get to the line 8+ times a game in this series.

3. Gasol/Odom have to outplay Martin/Nene. They just have to. No excuses.

4. I see the Lakers winning this series in 6, with Denver winning game 3 by about 30 points after the Lakers take the first two games in L.A. and turn in a total stinkbomb by putting it on cruise control.

NFL PED Issue -- The Williams Wall vs. the NFL -- RE: StarCaps

fourstick — Fri, 15 May 2009 13:48:33 -0000

NFL PED Issue -- The Williams Wall vs. the NFL -- RE: StarCaps

Good write up about the legal case against Pat and Kevin Williams of the Vikings and their alleged taking of a banned substance. Their argument is that they took a supplement called StarCaps which was distributed at one time by the Buffalo Bills, and that the league knew that StarCaps was tainted with substances that would fail a drug test and failed to inform the players.

This is a pretty significant decision in terms of PED use, the ramifications of which could be applied to baseball. I'm hoping the judge sides with the players. If that happens, the league would be stupid not to publicly release all information regarding it's PED testing. Not that MLB would follow their lead at all, even though it would probably be the best situation for everyone involved.

Florida prep pitcher throws 4 straight no-hitters

fourstick — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:25:21 -0000

Florida prep pitcher throws 4 straight no-hitters

The next Stephen Strasburg?