SB Nation User Blog: fourstick

Series Preview -- L.A. Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

fourstick — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:44:37 -0000

Phew, glad to have that Rockets series over with -- maybe this team has learned a little bit about itself and how it really needs to bring it every night, especially on the defensive end. FWIW, Cleveland sweeps that series and wins Game 4 (no Yao) by 40 on Houston's home floor. You cannot underestimate how good the Lil' Lebron's are playing right now: 8 Playoff wins, all by double digits, and playing ridiculously good team defense. They're clearly the favorite right now, especially after they paste Orlando in the first two games of the Eastern Finals. Mark my words, it's going to happen.

A few key points about the Western Finals before I get to breaking down the matchups:

Both of these teams like to run, but I think the Lakers are in trouble if they get into a track meet with Denver on the road. The elevation will be a factor, and our bigs will get worn out quicker than theirs will, which will spell trouble in the fourth quarter.
It's imperative that the Lakers hold home court the first two games. Denver is not a lockdown team at home (as they exhibited in Game 3 of the semifinals), but letting them steal one and go home with the series tied will have their fans fired up and thinking their team can win this series.
Andrew Bynum must play like he did on Sunday for this whole series.
I see Shannon Brown getting a lot of minutes in this series because he's big and physical and is a much better matchup for Billups and Carter than Farmar is.

The Matchups:

Key Defensive Matchup: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony:

If the Nuggets are smart (insert Bucks era George Karl joke here) they'll post Anthony on the right block against Ariza A LOT, and force the Lakers to double or allow Ariza to end up in foul trouble while Carmelo gets going by hitting 12 foot fadeaways or getting layups at the rim. Ariza's length can bother Carmelo on the perimeter but Anthony could physically dominate him in the post, as we saw Artest was able to do, when he wanted to, in the Rockets series. This matchup is an area of concern in a halfcourt setting and in key possessions down the stretch. In fact, I think that Odom should probably play Anthony in the fourth quarter with Ariza playing JR Smith or Chauncey Billups (more on this in a minute).

Key Defensive Question: Who guards Chauncey Billups?

If the Nuggets are going to start Dahntay Jones as their "Kobe slower-downer" then Fisher should guard Billups and Kobe matches up against Jones and plays defensive free safety, which is really when he's at his best on the defensive end -- jumping into passing lanes and diving from the perimeter to the post on double teams. The problem comes up when the Nuggets go to their best lineup, which is Billups, Smith, Anthony, Martin, and Nene. If the Lakers go big, then Odom guards Anthony, Kobe guards Smith, and Brown/Fish guards Billups. I don't think the Lakers can go small here unless they play two guards like Fish/Brown/Sasha together with Kobe at the small forward. Kobe's not a good matchup against Anthony, so this wouldn't be a good lineup for the Lakers. Farmar really shouldn't get a lot of minutes in this series unless he's knocking down 70% of his threes.

That's really the concern in this series: If Karl plays that lineup 50% of the time, the Lakers are really going to have matchup problems because they're going to end up with an undersized forward playing Anthony OR a small guard playing Billups, and neither of those are desireable matchups for the Lakers. Don't get me wrong, I think that they match up better with the Nugs' big guards better than they do the Rockets waterbug guards.

Key Offensive Matchups: Gasol/Bynum vs. Martin/Nene

This should concern the hell out of Phil Jackson. Both Martin and Nene are physical low post defenders, similar to, oh, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett last year for the Celtics. The biggest single reason that the Lakers lost the Finals last year was that Perkins beat the holy crap out of Gasol in the post and Pau disappeared in that series. This could be the same situation, which is why both Pau and Bynum have to play like men in this series. We witnessed what Chuck Hayes did to Gasol just by being physical, and he was giving up 6 inches to him -- Martin and Nene are his size, and so is Birdman (he's taller if you count his ridiculous haircut). If Denver turns the Lakers into a jump-shooting team, the series is over in 5 games -- look at what happened when the Rockets made L.A. a jump shooting team in Games 4 and 6 of the semis, and the Nuggets are heads and shoulders better offensively than that Rockets team. Gasol and Bynum must average a 32-20 between them to create enough offensive balance for the Lakers to thrive.

Key Offensive Question: Which Lamar Odom will we get?

Look, we know Kobe will get 30 at least twice in this series, and we know that Gasol and Bynum are question marks due to the physical nature of the defenders they're going to see. That leaves Odom.

If the Nuggets guard him with Carmelo, the Lakers should run the triangle with Odom on the block and let the offense run though him. Anthony reminds me of Charles Barkley -- he's as tough a matchup as there is offensively, but you can get back a whole lot of the points he scores on the other end by taking advantage of him defensively. Odom should dominate Anthony and force the Nuggets to put Kenyon Martin on him (which I think they will anyway), but that should open up the lane a little more for Kobe to drive and for Gasol/Bynum to get good looks at the basket.

This is my personal opinion, but I think the entire series really hinges on Lamar Odom. If he can be a go to guy offensively, hit 70% of his free throws and 35% of his 3's, then he is a huge matchup problem for the Nuggets because they simply don't have a player that can guard him if Phil plays their best lineup 35% of the time (Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Bryant, Fisher). My biggest fear is that Phil will play Odom at the 4 spot and allow Kenyon Martin to completely dominate him in the series (which he will), rendering the matchup problem useless for the Lakers. I would hope the Zen-Master is smart enough to use the Lakers' post rotation to keep Martin and Nene busy while leaving Anthony, Smith, Billups, Jones, and Kleiza to man the Laker backcourt.

My favorite Laker lineup in this series? Bryant, Ariza/Vujacic, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum. Think about it for a second. Lamar brings the ball up as a Pippen type point forward, Ariza/Vujacic bothers the holy hell out of Chauncey Billups defensively, and the Nuggets have no way to hide both Anthony and Smith on defense. One of those two will have to guard Odom or Bryant, and Martin wouldn't guard Lamar if he's bringing the ball up because it would wear him out. That lineup is matchup hell for the Nuggets. However, according to 82games.com, that lineup hasn't seen the floor all season, so don't expect to see it in this series.

Key Intangibles:

Turnovers and Fast Break Points:

The Nuggets are not good at taking care of the ball - Anthony/Smith/Nene/Billups average around 11 turnovers per 36 minutes as a whole. That's quite a few. This should give the Lakers some opportunities for easy points.

If the Lakers end up in jump shooting mode, this is what will kill them. Games 4 and 6 against the Rockets were marred with turnovers and poor ball movement, and the Nuggets will turn a lot of turnovers into points, much more than the Rockets did.

Officiating:

If the series is called closely, advantage L.A. because the Lakers have a deeper bench and the Nuggets lose the advantage of physical post play disrupting Gasol's aggressiveness. If it becomes a physical series, and it probably will, I think this favors the Nuggets because they have very aggressive and physical offensive players that are all excellent free throw shooters.

Bench Play:

Walton/Brown/Vujacic/Farmar > Smith/Kleiza/Anderson/Carter

It just has to be, right? If not, the Lakers will have trouble holding leads and will have to play Kobe, Lamar, and Pau more in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Not a good idea when you're playing at altitude in Denver.

Overall Series:

1. I see Anthony and Billups having very good series' against the Lakers.

2. Kobe should have at least one game of 40+ and possibly even two, and he should get to the line 8+ times a game in this series.

3. Gasol/Odom have to outplay Martin/Nene. They just have to. No excuses.

4. I see the Lakers winning this series in 6, with Denver winning game 3 by about 30 points after the Lakers take the first two games in L.A. and turn in a total stinkbomb by putting it on cruise control.

NFL PED Issue -- The Williams Wall vs. the NFL -- RE: StarCaps

fourstick — Fri, 15 May 2009 13:48:33 -0000

NFL PED Issue -- The Williams Wall vs. the NFL -- RE: StarCaps

Good write up about the legal case against Pat and Kevin Williams of the Vikings and their alleged taking of a banned substance. Their argument is that they took a supplement called StarCaps which was distributed at one time by the Buffalo Bills, and that the league knew that StarCaps was tainted with substances that would fail a drug test and failed to inform the players.

This is a pretty significant decision in terms of PED use, the ramifications of which could be applied to baseball. I'm hoping the judge sides with the players. If that happens, the league would be stupid not to publicly release all information regarding it's PED testing. Not that MLB would follow their lead at all, even though it would probably be the best situation for everyone involved.

Florida prep pitcher throws 4 straight no-hitters

fourstick — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:25:21 -0000

Florida prep pitcher throws 4 straight no-hitters

The next Stephen Strasburg?

Cubs Plate Discipline Trends

fourstick — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 13:48:07 -0000

Cubs Plate Discipline Trends

Pretty cool stuff by Harry Pavlidis at BtB. Does anyone know pitch f/x well enough to do this for the Cardinal hitters? I sure don't but I wish I had the time to figure it out right now.

2009 Cardinals Schedule for Mediacom Subscribers

fourstick — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:30:09 -0000

A couple of things to note here:

This applies only to Mediacom markets that carry FSN Midwest. If your market doesn't carry that then you're SOL on the Cardinals games on TV.
There may be other games blacked out due to other reasons, this is just a list of games that will not be carried due to Mediacom not picking up the surcharge package of games (20 total games affected).
All times are Central Standard Time.

The schedule of surcharge games that are blacked out are after the jump. Sorry for the formatting issues, but the WYWSIWIG editor on SB Nation kinda sucks and I didn't have time to type in the XHTML code for the tables.

Tuesday April 7 Pittsburgh 7:00pm

Wednesday April 8 Pittsburgh 7:00pm

Tuesday April 21 New York 7:00pm

Wednesday April 22 New York 7:00pm

Tuesday May 5 Philadelphia 7:00pm

Friday May 8 at Cincinnati 6:00pm

Friday May 15 Milwaukee 7:00pm

Saturday May 16 Milwaukee 12:00pm

Tuesday May 26 at Milwaukee 7:00pm

Saturday May 30 at SFO 8:00pm

Tuesday June 16 Detroit 7:00pm

Wednesday June 17 Detroit 7:00pm

Tuesday June 23 at New York 6:00pm

Wednesday June 24 at New York 6:00pm

Wednesday July 8 at Milwaukee 7:00pm

Friday July 24 at Philadelphia 6:00pm

Tuesday August 4 at New York 6:00pm

Tuesday August 18 at LAD 9:00pm

Tuesday Sept. 1 Milwaukee 7:00pm

Wednesday Sept. 2 Milwaukee 7:00pm

Administration Kills UNI College Baseball Program

fourstick — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 19:18:55 -0000

Administration Kills UNI College Baseball Program

This is completely off topic, but I found the lack of interest in saving a baseball program that's been in existence for 103 years striking. There's been literally no effort on the part of the administration to save the program and plenty of roadblocks put in the way of those trying to save it.

It's a sad day for baseball in Iowa -- we now have only one of three major state universities with a baseball program.

Updated WAR for the 2009 Cardinals

fourstick — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 13:28:25 -0000

Back in January, Erik from FutureRedbirds (now residing at Beyond the Boxscore) took a look at the projected 2009 Cardinals by plugging them into Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet to see how many wins, by WAR, the projected team looked to be worth.

I took the liberty of re-constructing that spreadsheet now that we have a better idea of what the depth chart is going to look like on opening day. Again, I used CHONE for all projections. Here are the changes I made:

I removed Manning and Ring (although "Replacement" pretty well describes their talents, I think).
Added in Dennys Reyes.
Reduced the projected PA's for Glaus and added in PA's for Mather and Freese at 3B.
Moved Skippy to 2B, removed Kennedy, and bumped up the PA's for Ryan and Barden, adjusting for late inning replacements and platoonage. Same with Duncan, Mather, and Skip in LF.
Penciled in a full season for Chris Carpenter and slightly increased Wainwright's innings while pushing Puppykicker's and Boggs' innings down.
I spread Rasmus' PA's equally over CF and RF since I feel like he's going to be playing more corner outfield than originally projected as long as Ank stays healthy.
Although league average wOBA for pinch hitters is around .301, I bumped the Cardinals' to .310 because of the depth on the bench and the fact that we're going to have some platoons where solid regulars like Duncan, Mather, and Skip are going to be getting some late inning AB's. I also bumped down the PH numbers from 350 to 200 because of the platoons and movement around the diamond by so many regular players.

So what's the verdict? About 86 wins, which is right where Erik had us headed in January. I think this shows that even if Carpenter pitches a full season, our pitching staff is going to have to be much better than their projections for the Cardinals to have much of a shot at the Cubs. I anticipate Duncan, Greene, and Freese outperforming their CHONE projections, which would add maybe a win or two on offense.

What does everyone else think? Are there any corrections you would like to see made? Any other possible combinations of players you'd like to see added? All suggestions are welcome and I'll do my best to update the sheet as needed.

Attention: VivaElBirdos members in Mediacom service areas.

fourstick — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:43:48 -0000

I'm a operations director in Des Moines for the local Mediacom system, but I can set up anyone that is looking for service in any Mediacom market.

If you are looking to pick up cable service for Cardinal baseball this season, give me shout in this FanPost with your address, town, and a phone number I can reach you at. I can set you up with the best offers available to new subscribers and best upgrades that we currently have for existing subs.

Mediacom carries Fox Sports Midwest in High Definition in nearly every Midwest system, and about 100-120 games were in HD last year. We do not offer the Extra Innings package (unfortunately). I can also get you set up with our high speed internet at an affordable cost for at least the next year, so you can subscribe to the mlb.tv package if you want.

If anyone is interested, please let me know.

Hot Stove -- 1/20 thru 1/27 or 400+ comments

fourstick — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:06:04 -0000

Up over 400 posts again, so here's a new thread.

A couple of starting points:

Over at Beyond the Boxscore they have an excellent book review of Brad Snyder's "A Well Paid Slave", about Curt Flood's fight for free agency in the late '60's and early 70's. (Amazon link here). I read and cited much of this book when I was working on my dissertation on organized labor in professional sports a few years back; it is an excellent read for anyone interested in baseball history.
Hardcore and some others found an MLBTR link about Sheets asking for 2Y$18M with a third year option from the Mets. To me this screams of a pitcher with possible health issues. He'd be much better off on an incentive laden one year deal with the crappy 2009-2010 free agent class of pitchers.

Poll

Should the Cardinals take the risk of signing Ben Sheets to a 2Y$18M deal with a 3rd year player option if he can't prove he's 100% healthy?

Hell, yes, Absolutely! Where do I sign again?!?!?

200 votes

No, we already have one expensive pitcher with a significant injury history, why would we want another one?

74 votes

274 votes | Poll has closed

Farm System Ranks by MLB Team

fourstick — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:48:01 -0000

Farm System Ranks by MLB Team

This post relates to the ratings that Sickels has thrown up on his website for the top 24 prospects. It assigns each letter grade a number value and then adds them all up based on Sickels' rankings. Pretty good ranking for the Cardinals here, especially considering that they're in much better shape than everyone else in the division. I am a bit surprised that Florida was #2 though. I know Texas has a ton of talent, but Florida is absolutely loaded...