I was wanting to go through some game film these past few weeks as a refresher of sorts to pass the laboring period that is May/June/July. This is an incredibly boring time of year for me being out of pharmacy school (P2) for the summer and having limited hours interning for the next few weeks. Therefore, I have decided to completely waste a few days searching and watching hours and hours of film from FSU's 2011 season.

In doing so, and after talking with fellow fans, boosters, family members, and an all-of-the-above big booster family member who enjoys golf with a few well-to-do FSU admins, I believe I can sum up the sole reason why fans felt 2011 was a bit of a disappointment (besides EJ missing 90% of all wide-open RB swing passes). Find out after the jump.

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Come inside and discuss the madness that is NCAA basketball in March. First, get a code to access live video of all 67 games FREE. Now, get in here and let us know your expert analysis. Also, everyone check out the Cincy-Texas game for the announcing and color, as these are the guys who will be doing the FSU game right afterward.

This will not be the game thread for the FSU game. This thread is solely for non-FSU games. I suspect our game to blow up at least one thread, so let's keep this one strictly for other games.

Also, if you REC'd the Thursday thread HERE, please go unrec it now to keep the sidebar from clogging up.

Gametimes and more info after the jump. I'll update the thread throughout the day with scores and other fun knick-knacks.

Continue reading this post »

Come inside and discuss the madness that is NCAA basketball in March. First, get a code to access live video of all 67 games FREE. Now, get in here and let us know your expert analysis. Gametimes and more info after the jump. I'll update the thread throughout the day with scores and other fun knick-knacks.

So far only one upset on the day, with VCU playing Cinderella once again.

Continue reading this post »

Okay, so we all now know that the NCAA has decided to change the rules again. Kickoffs will be taken from the 35 instead of the 30 yard line, and touchbacks from kickoffs will be moved to the 25 instead of the 20 yard line.

In Nole News, Bud has linked a great article entitled Who Might Benefit From New Kickoff Rule? Go check it out if you haven't already. Anyways, this got me thinking about just how much of a difference this could make if FSU indeed decided to forego the touchback and have Hopkins kick it high and to the goal line. Follow the jump...if you dare.

Continue reading this post »

Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.

           What a crazy weekend in college football. Oklahoma goes down, Wisconsin goes down, LSU demoralizes teams even without their starters, and FSU has a WINNING STREAK again! If you haven't checked out the meltdown thread from last week, go HERE, because it was awesome. Here's my favorite from an Oklahoma fan after receiving their beatdown from Texas Tech:

We sucked a fourteen inch turd through a McDonald's straw tonight

 Anyways, it finally feels good to be cheering for a team with a winning record again, and NOT be on the Meltdown Thread.

Moving on, here's where the weekly OTL Gambling Podcast will go. I will update it accordingly.

RECAP

So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.

12:00pm  Wake Forest -3 +100* vs Duke...LOSS

Wow this game was a heartbreaker (as much a one could be with these two teams involved). Wake blows a 17 point lead, giving up 23 straight points to Duke, only to get a TD late to win. That game was in hand for just about everyone, and Wake let off the gas and it almost cost them (but still cost me). Wake wins 24-23.

12:00pm Illinois -5½ -110* vs Purdue...LOSS

Needless to say this game did not go as planned. But Purdue did not win this game, no no, Illinois handed Purdue this game on a silver platter. Coaching lost this game for Illinois. Down 21-0, Ron Zook elected to punt on 4th and <3yds at midfield or inside Purdue territory THREE TIMES. WHILE BEING DOWN 21-0. There are many more reasons why Illinois lost this game (hence, not Purdue winning), but it is water under the bridge now. Purdue wins 21-14.

12:00pm Virginia -4 -110* vs NC State...LOSS 

This was another awful game to watch. Virginia gained 249 yards. The entire game. That's it. No, seriously. Virginia QB's combined to complete 31% of their passes (35 passes) and had 3 INT's. Virginia showed this week they were a one hit wonder, and NC State showed that even the worst teams can win when the opposing team gives up short fields and pick-6's. NC State wins 28-14.

12:00pm  Oklahoma State -7½ -105* vs Missouri...WIN

This was my confidence pick, and I'm glad it hit because it immediately put me ahead on the day despite my other losses. Oklahoma State showed again that they have a prolific offense and respectable defense. Their QB (Weeden) will get some Heisman coverage before the year is out. OSU wins 45-24.

I also won some last minute bets of Kansas St -11 and FSU both to cover (19.5) and to score over 36.5

Honestly I don't know why I didn't hit Kansas State before. I woke up Friday morning and seriously thought about them for the first time all week. After some research and analysis it just seemed like the obvious choice. I admit, the FSU bet was probably not well thought out as I was just realizing that my first 3 bets were going down the drain. I figured if FSU did indeed cover then they were going to hit the over, so I made them and they hit.

Overall, I upped my bankroll a bit thanks to winning my highest confidence pick (OSU) and some last minute epiphanies.  But, I'm still on the losing end record-wise as I went officially 1-3, though unofficially I went 4-3 ;-)

THIS WEEK

This week has a few games of interest. I need an infusion of good picks to redeem my awful record so far. Here's who I have this week.

12:00pm  Florida State -18 -110* vs NC State 

This game could play out very similar to last week. NC State is a mess on defense despite what happened last week, and our defense is finally healthy enough in the secondary to give QB's fits. While the wolfpack can't run at all, make no mistake, Mike Glennon has the potential to be good and he has a playmaker WR (T.J. Graham) to throw to, but with FSU at home I think they hem up the run easily and play pass all day. I think the score could be very similar to the Maryland game.

12:00pm Michigan State +4½ -110* vs Nebraska 

Transitive property anyone? Wisconsin beat Nebraska 48-17. Michigan St. beat Wisconsin 37-31. Therefore, Michigan State should win by 40 right? Well, while that doesn't really add up, I think Michigan has shown they have the defense and offense to take on a Nebraska team that has played well since the Wisky demolition. This game will be rocking in Lincoln, but I think Michigan St. not only covers but also wins.

8:30pm Wisconsin -7½ -110* vs Ohio State 

This may have been one of the easiest picks of the week. Wisconsin is coming off a heartbreaker, and Ohio State just isn't very good (see Bauserman, Joe). I see Wisconsin taking out a lot of frustration out on the Buckeyes, winning easily.

10:30pm  Arizona U +7 -110* vs Washington U 

This game could turn out to be genius, or I may just be an idiot. 2-5 Arizona vs. 5-2 Washington. Arizona has played one of the toughest SOS to date, and has been pretty respectable against some of the better teams in the country. They were jumped on by Oklahoma St. and Oregon, but played very well in losses to Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. This Arizona team is much better than their record, and I believe we saw that last week when they murdered UCLA and will see it again this week against a Washington team that has beaten California, Hawaii, and Eastern Washington by a TD or less.

TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...

I also played a pleaser. For beginners who don't know what a pleaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically get extra points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team will not only win by the given line, but will also be able to cover a more advantageous number. This gives you worse odds than what Vegas is advertising, but higher payouts.Think of it as the exact opposite of a teaser. Here I have a pleaser giving 10 points (meaning the actual line is 10 points in the opposite direction).  This 10 point pleaser, for instance, is 2 teams, and would pay +1200. a $50 bet here would win $600 if it hits. In this specific bet, a tie equates to a win.

Georgia Tech -7 * vs Clemson 

Michigan State -6½ * vs Nebraska 

I may take some flak for the GT pick, but being @ Georgia Tech may allow the Jackets to take an early lead and run away with it. Also, Clemson doesn't have a former GT coach on their sideline to show exactly how to defend it, and Clemson also has not had 14 days to prepare as Virginia did. 

I enjoy teasers (and pleasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet (e.g. my near-hit 15 team teaser example, oh what could have been). Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week (cough), I rarely bet very big with either (thank God).

You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.

What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.

Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.

           What a great weekend for FSU. We dominate Duke. We are predicted to dominate Maryland. More importantly, we make Heather Dinich look bad (but let's be honest, she not exactly a looker already). Oh, and Florida still looks terrible. The only thing that could make it better would be for Miami to have gotten beat and for Clemson to have pulled a Clemson. But alas, we cannot always have it our way. I guess I'll take what we got.

Here's the On the Line Gambling Podcast. Check it out, boatloads of insight into some of this week's games.

RECAP

So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.

Florida State -11 -110* vs Duke...WIN

They are who we thought they were...er...well, hoped they were. FSU takes control early and Jimbo steps on the gas. Beatdown number one. 

North Carolina -3½ -110* vs Miami Florida...LOSS

Wow, has Miami turned the corner this season? I don't really think so, but they got up quickly on North Carolina who had to abandon their excellent running game. This game was closer than the score indicated, but who cares about moral victories when there's...ahem...theoretical money on the line/

South Carolina -4½ * vs Mississippi State...LOSS 

via www.terezowens.com

Just follow this LINK. Vegas is now a huge Spurrier fan.

Michigan +3 * vs Michigan State...LOSS

Michigan State proves me wrong and thoroughly dominates the Denard Robinson Michigan Wolverines. Gotta tip your hat when you shut down the #5 offense in the country. State wins 28-14.

LSU -13½ -130* vs Tennessee U...WIN   

LSU just lays into a decimated Tennessee team, however Tennessee does make it past midfield a few times, but can only punch it in once as they get dumped 38-7.

Auburn pk * vs Florida...WIN

This seemed like a fairly easy pick, but I was a little skeptical of Auburn's offense against a very good UF defense. Luckily, I somehow overestimated UF's offense and did not win as much as I probably should have. Wow, UF is awful right now.

Georgia Tech -8 -110* vs Virginia...LOSE

Yuck. This game cost me twice my bankroll in potential winnings. In fact, I hit on a 15-team teaser that would have earned a pretty penny had Tech simply won the game. 

Overall, I did still net a decent positive on the day thanks to winning my highest confidence picks (FSU and LSU) both individually and in a simple parlay, but boy was I seeing $$$ until Paul Johnson dashed my dreams away. From last weeks losses I am a little above even despite a 5-7 record, and had FSU won last week or GT this week I would be sitting pretty. But enough about what could have been...

THIS WEEK

This week does not have a bunch jump out to me screaming VALUE. But perhaps I am looking at things the wrong way. What games stand out to you this week? Does it seem like Vegas is undervaluing or overvaluing any team that you might can take advantage of?

Let me show you what games I took this week (either in a teaser, pleaser, parlay, or straight up). I'll also throw in an explanation:

For starters, I am NOT taking FSU -17 against Maryland. That is a very high number and has been discussed already HERE. Is this going to be beatdown #2? I hope so, but I'm not gonna put my money where my mouth is.

12:00pm  Wake Forest -3 +100* vs Duke 

This game is interesting. I could be using the infamous transitive properties in an emotional fit and just assume Wake is going to win. However, Wake seems to be the better team after this past week. Specifically, Wake has a talented secondary that should give fits to Duke's WR personnel. Since Duke heavily relies on the passing game, I see this as a great matchup. Duke also did lose their starting center against FSU, and when I say starting I mean backup. We'll see if the 3rd string center can handle the heat.

12:00pm Illinois -5½ -110* vs Purdue

You knew it had to happen at some point. Ron Zook can't coach that good. The Illinois dream run is over, but they are still 6-1 after facing a top-15 Ohio State defense. The good news? Purdue is nowhere near a top-15 defense. Or offense. In fact, Purdue has yet to garner more than two touchdowns this season against any defense ranked in the top 110 in the country. Where is Illinois you ask? 13th. Yeah, I'll just stop there.

12:00pm Virginia -4 -110* vs NC State 

Virginia comes in sporting a top-25 defense, while NC State enters off a bye week with a bottom 40 offense. NC State defense is also in the bottom 30, while Virginia's offense is purely average. Advantage: Virginia.

But what's the big selling point? Glad you asked! NC State has a huge number of defensive line injuries and generally roadkill-resembling play. Well, perhaps that is a little harsh since they are starting a walk-on offensive lineman at defensive tackle, but I digress. You will also note that Virginia's rushing attack destroyed my dreams last week (see above) to the tune of 272 yards against an above average Georgia Tech defense. What happens when they meet up with the 95th rated wolfpup rushing defense? Money in fresh's pocket, that's what.

12:00pm  Oklahoma State -7½ -105* vs Missouri

I'm actually surprised this is as low as it is. I assumed the Cowboys would be about a 13 point favorite, but low-and-behold, this seems like taking the theoretical candy from the proverbial baby. Oklahoma State has some serious firepower on offense and defense (both top 15). Missouri has the offense to keep up, but they will be tested on each possession while OSU runs up and down the field against a bottom 50 Missouri defense. This should be a fun game with Oklahoma State just out-running Missouri.

TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...

I also played a teaser. For beginners who don't know what a teaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically get extra points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team won't win by the given line, but will be able to cover a more advantageous number. This gives you better odds than what Vegas is advertising, but lower payouts.Think of it as the exact opposite of a pleaser. Here I have a teaser giving 5 points (meaning the actual line is 5 points in the opposite direction).  This 5 point teaser, for instance, is 5 teams, and would pay +510. a $10 bet here would win $51 if it hits.

Virginia -1 * vs NC State

Illinois -1½ * vs Purdue

Florida State -12 * vs Maryland 

Oklahoma State -2½ * vs Missouri 

Kansas State -7 * vs Kansas

I enjoy teasers (and pleasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet (e.g. my near-hit 15 team teaser example, oh what could have been). Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week (cough), I rarely bet very big with either (thank God).

You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.

What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.

Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.

Good grief. What an awful weekend. Now that FSU has been downtrodden completely by the entire nation, lets recap the devastation left in it's wake. Yes, that was a painful, corny, disturbingly truthful attempt at a joke.

RECAP

So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.

Oklahoma simply to win (currently -10) vs. Texas...WIN

OU shows that they are legitimately elite team (again), while Texas is shown as the untested fraud I expected.

GT @ -13.5 vs. Maryland...LOSS

Winning 21-3 in the 4th quarter, GT gives up 13 unanswered to win 21-16.  

FSU @ -13, and then more at -10 at Wake Forest...LOSS 

We played this weekend?

Texas A&M @ -6 (currently -9.5) at Texas Tech...LOSS

A&M gives up a 20 yard TD pass with :30 seconds left in the game, allowing Tech to cover. A&M wins 45-40

Michigan @ -3.5 (currently -7.5) at Northwestern...WIN   

Michigan lays it on NW in the 2nd half, win 42-24

Safe to say, aside from FSU, I felt really good going into the 4th quarter of all my games. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech decided they couldn't handle a backup quarterback, and the Texas A&M defense had no self-respect, giving up the final 10 points of the game, pushing me to a 2-3 record on the week. To top it all off, FSU put in a pitiful performance against an inferior opponent. Overall, I lost money on the week, as I'm sure a lot of FSU fans did as well.

THIS WEEK

But that was last week. What games stand out to you this week? Does it seem like Vegas is undervaluing or overvaluing any team that you might can take advantage of?

When the CFB podcast comes out, I'll update and provide a like here.

But until then, let me show you what games I took this week (either in a teaser or straight up). I'll also throw in an explanation:

3:00pm  Florida State -11 -110* vs Duke 

FSU comes in on a 3-game skid, with the season in question and without a true identity. This Duke game could no come at a better time for either the players or the coaching staff. Jimbo will not try and "fix" the run game now. He will not be trying to make this team what he wanted it to be at the beginning of the season. He is going to find out what works and he is going to allow the players to find their own identity. I see a lot of shotgun, a lot of WR's, and a lot of spread-running in this game as a tune-up to what we will be the rest of the year, and potentially 2012.

Jimbo steps on the gas in this game and leaves no doubt, instilling some much-needed confidence into Nole Nation.

12:30pm  North Carolina -3½ -110* vs Miami Florida

I just think UNC is better. Better offense, better defense, better personnel. Better.

If you want stats, both have excellent offenses (UNC - 14th, UM - 15th) when adjusted for opponents, but UNC sports a top 50 defense while Miami is 88th! And they are worse than 90th in every S&P defensive category! We're talking worse than San Jose State, Rice, and Arkansas State.

12:20pm South Carolina -4½ * vs Mississippi State 

Since South Carolina can't dismiss their OC midseason, they decided just to dismiss the second drunkest person in the program. And from the performance put in last week by their backup Shaw, they seem to be even better with him.

This line has since moved to -2, noting Garcia's dismissal. I still feel comfortable with this pick, though obviously I see -2 at a much better value.

12:00pm  Michigan +3 * vs Michigan State

This is going to be a very interesting game. Michigan has a top 5 offense going against Michigan State's top 15 defense. On the other side is a slightly above average MSU O (38th) against above average Michigan D (43rd).

Honestly, I believe Michigan State's defense is a little overrated, giving up 31 points to the only decent offense they've played all year (Notre Dame). I think Michigan pulls the upset on the road and remains undefeated.

This line has since moved to Michigan +1.

3:30pm  LSU -13½ -130* vs Tennessee U 

Tennessee has lost it's starting QB and one of the best playmakers in the country (WR Justin Hunter). When Hunter went down their offense plummeted. Now that their QB, Tyler Bray, is out for this game, Tennesse will struggle to move the ball past midfield again this elite LSU defense (#3 nationally).

This line has since moved to -15.5

3:30pm  Georgia Tech -8 -110* vs Virginia 

Georgia Tech enters this game with a top10 offense and a top 20 defense. Virginia is simply not going to hang. Granted, the defense is senior laden (7 Sr. starters), but they are just not very good. Unfortunately, The Cavalier offensive isn't any better, barely eeking out an overtime win against Idaho in their last game.

The good news for the cav's is that they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this lethal offense. Since one week to prepare during the regular season is historically insufficient for a decent GT offense, UVA should play better. But I don't think they will be able to cover, and GT will dominate on both sides of the ball. Hopefully, they will not be looking forward to Miami next week.

7:00pm  Auburn pk * vs Florida 

This pick is based solely on the fact that Florida is a complete mess. Brantley will not play this week, and Driskel may not either. The Auburn defense is no stalwart, but I think luck may come to play in this game @ the Barn, and Luck might as well be Chizik's middle name.

TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...

I also played a pleaser. For beginners who don't know what a pleaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically give up points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team will win by more than the line, or lose by less than the current line. This gives you worse odds than what Vegas is advertising, but higher payouts. Think of it as the exact opposite of a teaser. Here I have a pleaser taking 6 points (meaning the actual line is 6 points in the opposite direction).  This 6 point pleaser, for instance, is 3 teams, and would pay +1750. a $10 bet here would win $175 if it hits.

12:20pm  South Carolina -11½ * vs Mississippi State 

12:00pm  Michigan -4 * vs Michigan State 

7:00pm  Auburn -7 * vs Florida 

I enjoy pleasers (and teasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet. Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week, I rarely bet very big with either.

You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.

What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.

Finally, I'll end with a poll, because everyone likes voting and speaking their mind.

This year sucks balls.

There is nothing left to say.

Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.

Due to the recent uptick in a few threads discussing the gambling odds and takes of a few members, I thought it might behoove (word of the day) us to create a thread where people interested in the topic could ask questions, discuss lines, and maybe learn a little from everyone else. If there is a decent amount of interest related to the subject, perhaps this could be a weekly thread, assuring no one ever gets any work done, ever.

Let me first point you toward an awesomely informative podcast discussing several of this weeks games, including FSU-Wake: PODCAST

Now that you have a little knowledge on this weeks games, let me show you what games I took this week:

12:00      Oklahoma simply to win (currently -10) vs. Texas

12:00      GT @ -13.5 vs. Maryland

12:30      FSU @ -13, and then more at -10 at Wake Forest

7:00        Texas A&M @ -6 (currently -9.5) at Texas Tech

7:00        Michigan @ -3.5 (currently -7.5) at Northwestern

I also played a teaser. For beginners who don't know what a teaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically buy points on games. This gives you better lines, but lower payouts.Here I have a teaser giving 5 points (meaning the actual line is 5 points in the opposite direction).  This 5 point teaser, for instance, is 6 teams, and would pay +775. a $20 bet here would win $155 if it hits.

12:00         Oklahoma -5 * vs Texas 

12:00         Georgia Tech -9 * vs Maryland

12:30         Florida State -5 * vs Wake Forest 

3:30           LSU -8½ * vs Florida 

7:00           Michigan -2½ * vs Northwestern 

7:00           Texas A&M -4 * vs Texas Tech

I enjoy teasers because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet. Because of the nature of teasers and the number of upsets that can happen each week, I rarely bet very big with teasers.

You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.

What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.

Ran across this today and did not see it posted anywhere, it definitely has some great information on Ponder's NFL potential. I think hits the nail on the head in all the right places. You can find this and more stories HERE.

SCOUTING REPORT ON CHRISTIAN PONDER

By Greg Beckman

SCOUTING REPORT ON CHRISTIAN PONDER
Below is a scouting report, on Christian Ponder, using the Blesto Scouting Service scale of 1-5.  For those of you that do not know Blesto, they are a scouting service that some NFL teams use as a secondary scouting service for the NFL draft.  The report is also based on a report that they would use in terms of the categories grades.  A grade between 1.0-1.19 would be a first round pick.  1.2-1.29 or so would be a 2nd round pick.  So on and so forth.  I grade Ponder a 1.16, putting him in the lower 3rd of the first round.  This being the pre-season before his senior year, this certainly could change.  What brings him down a bit is the question of his durability, his size (which is probably going to register under 6’ 3") and his TD/INT ratio.  The ratio did improve in 2009, but was still not at the elite level.  If he can complete a full-season and have a 3-1 or even 4-1 or better ratio, this grade should improve.

NAME: Ponder, Christian                     COLLEGE: Florida State    POS: QB
FINAL GRADE: 1.161
HEIGHT: 6026            WEIGHT: 227
40 SPEED:  HI: 4.75 LOW: 4.68 AVG: 4.72                  TEST SCORE: 38

ATHLETIC ABILITY:            SECTION GRADE: 1.075
Quickness, Agility, Balance:  1.1
Quick Feet:  1.0
Flexibility: 1.1
Coordination: 1.1

SECTION COMMENTS: Ponder has outstanding quickness and agility.  His ability to process his thinking into moving may be the best for any quarterback in the draft.  He has the fastest short shuttle time out of any player at FSU.  Although there are faster QB’s in the draft for straight speed he should be #1 when it comes to quickness and agility.  His ability to make plays with his feet shows us his elite athletic ability at the position.

COMPETITIVENESS:            SECTION GRADE: 1.117
Toughness: 1.1
Clutch Play: 1.1
Production: 1.3
Consistency: 1.2
Team Player: 1.0
Pride/Quit: 1.0

SECTION COMMENTS:  Ponder will play hurt, as evidenced in the 2009 Clemson game when he played with a rib injury.  His production has improved over time.  He is an elite team leader and takes exceptional pride in everything he does on and off the field.  All the intangibles about leadership and competitiveness are there.  TD to INT ratio needs to improve.  (29/22 for FSU Career) It is okay, but needs to be better. 

MENTAL ALERTNESS:             SECTION GRADE: 1.133
Learn/Retain:  1.0
Instincts/Reaction:  1.3
Focus: 1.1

SECTION COMMENTS: Ponder will be as good as it gets when it comes to learning and retaining football information.  He will be able to learn an NFL playbook quickly.  Quicker than most.  However, he is a player that must know a system inside and out and plays within the system.  He will not play a lot on instincts.  His reaction time will improve as his comfort level with his knowledge of a system improves.  He can transfer thought to movement very quickly, it is the thought that will take some time to be automatic in a full-speed football situation.  He is not a naturally instinctive football player.  His focus is outstanding.  Academics proves this.

STRENGTH/EXPLOSION:             SECTION GRADE: 1.350
Body Type:  1.4
Durability: 1.6
Explosion: 1.2
Play Strength: 1.2

SECTION COMMENTS: Ponder does not have prototypical size and strength for the NFL but has worked very hard to get himself to an adequate place body wise.  His durability is in question after missing the last 4 games in 2009 with the shoulder injury.  Explosion is excellent as proven by his shuttle time.  Play strength continues to improve as he gets stronger. 

PLAY CHARACTERISTICS:
TECHNIQUE:  1.2 – not elite quickness in release but more than adequate
ARM STRENGTH:  1.4 – Relies on accuracy more than arm strength, but adequate
CONVERT %: 1.2 – Outstanding a picking-up big chunks of yards
2nd LIVES: 1.1 – Quickness and agility will buy him extra time
ACCURACY SHORT: 1.0 – Best in the draft
ACCURACY LONG: 1.1 –  Elite accuracy in the mid-range passing attack, but relies on timing, not arm-strength
ACCURACY ON MOVE: 1.1 – Has proven he can throw on the run as well as any in the draft
BIG PLAYS: 1.1 – Accuracy helps receivers create yards after the catch
UNDER PRESSURE: 1.1 – Will stand in pocket and take the hit, will create time with elite feet in pocket
POISE/LDRSHP: 1.0 – Best in the draft
READ DEFENSES: 1.2 – Needs to improve to be an elite QB.  Will need time to develop in a system to become elite.  But still better than most.
ERRORS: 1.1 – Has drastically cut down on errors as he has become more comfortable in the system.
SECTION GRADE: 1.133

CRITICAL FACTORS:
Size: 1.5 – Lacks ideal size at under 6030
Strength: 1.4 - Adequate strength
Play Speed: 1.4 – Needs time to develop and completely understand system
Athletic Ability: 1.1 – Outstanding for a QB
Competes: 1.0 – Elite

OVERALL:  Ponder, if given time to develop can become an elite QB in the NFL due to his unparalleled accuracy in the short and mid-range passing game.  He has adequate but not top-end arm-strength, however, his accuracy makes-up for it.  His intelligence is probably the best in the 2011 draft among QB’s and his team leadership and poise are also unmatched.  His work-ethic, athletic ability and accuracy – despite elite size and arm-strength – will allow him to be successful as a starting QB in the NFL.

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         So we have all documented that Florida State will have a very difficult road this year. there are several reasons to why most people "in the know" (aka everyone at TN) believe that FSU has the potential to struggle this year despite a very good offseason both recruiting and healing-wise. In this post I am going to go through several reasons that FSU fans must be skeptical, but then several reasons as to why Florida State has the potential to offset these shortcomings.

First, what makes this schedule so tough?

A.)     For starters, it looks like we will play half of our games this year against opponents that either started the season in the top 25 or will be in the top 25 the week we play them. I am counting BYU because I see them sneaking in week 3 before we play them as they will be right on the cusp from the preseason. Last year it was also half the schedule, which leads us into our next reason. . .

2.)     History

I'm sure we are all sadly familiar with this graphic. Teams with difficult SOS rarely can pull out what a fan would view a successful season. Last year was no different as FSU could only muster a 5-6 record against Div-I competition.

D.)    Brand New Defense

While we can all agree that last year's defense was suicide-inducing, lets all be clear: This year's defense will will not be elite, it will not be great, and it might not even be good. But last year it was nearly the worst defense in the nation and easily the worst defense in FSU and, quite possibly, ACC history. believe we will never know how crippled our athletes were the last few years, but all we can do is move forward. It seems that Stoops has the scheme, the work ethic, the smarts, the assistants, and now the players to excel, but to expect a team who didn't even have playbooks last year to magically achieve mediocrity might very well be expecting too much.

After the jump, we'll take a quick glance at last years gladiator schedule and compare with this year's.

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So I did a quick interview with Telvin after he picked Florida State. Before the announcement I was told by a couple who said they were VERY close to him (and die-hard Dawg fans) tell me they thought he was ALL NOLE. They loved the Dawgs but thought he was a Nole.

I was also pre-banned for saying that lol.

Anyways, here's the quick interview I did with him before he left.

Me: So what was the biggest factor that made you pick FSU over Georgia?

T: Well, it just seemed to me like FSU is really close to having everything together. Coach Fisher said he was really turning things around and I want to be apart of it.

Me: So what was Coach Fisher's best selling point to you?

T: The best thing he told me was that I had a chance to be a part of being something special, a NEW era at Florida State. He said he was getting all the pieces to be on top and he wanted me to be there. And with Greg (Reid) being there already and telling me how great it is and how the team has really changed since last year I wanna be apart of it.

Me: So what do you think about Lowndes and FSU? The last few years have been big with with you and Greg Reid from last year, what do you think about FSU laying the groundwork for a pipeline to Lowndes? AKA, what about Tyler Hunter for next year?

T: Well I don't know where Tyler is going right now, but me and Greg are gonna be going after him next year.

Me: So Telvin, you going to bring Florida State a championship?

T: I hope so, we're gonna have a great team,. I think we can do it.

That's all I got guys, there were a lot of disappointed UGA fans here tonight, the place emptied in about 3 minutes except for me, one other Nole fan, and his teammates and family. Nole fans should be excited about this kid!!!