With the Draft Lottery taking place tonight, and the Bulls out of the playoffs, I thought it'd be a good time to talk draft. I want to specifically discuss Jae Crowder, the forward from Marquette. Every year it seems like some player puts up monster stats in college on a good team, and for whatever reason, they slide down to the late first round or even into the second round on draft boards and in the actual draft and then surprise everyone when they turn out to be pretty productive in the pros. One of my hobbies is trying to find these guys. I think that Jae Crowder will be one of these guys. Crowder is a bit undersized for his position at the next level (small forward), as he's only 6'5.5" in shoes. He does, however, have a decent wingspan at 6' 8.5". More importantly, Crowder is a ball of muscle. Dude is STRONG. He's a chiseled 242 pounds. He has the potential to be a defensive bully. Crowder put up an absurd 28.9 PER in his senior year, after submitting a very good 24.3 PER in his junior year. He shoots the three decently well at around 35%, he beasts on the glass for a SF (9.6 rebs / 40 mins pace adjusted). He's a terror in the passing lanes and he blocks shots, too.

His one weakness is that offensively, he's quite weak at creating his own offense, but then so is our current SF and he's pretty damn good overall (so good, in fact, that he could conceivably be dealt for Pau Gasol, which would make Crowder an even better fit). Here's what DX has to say about his offense:

Crowder gets most of his offense by working off the ball, be it spotting up from the 3-point line, diving to the rim to position himself for drop-off passes from his guards, running the floor in transition, posting up, or through his work on the offensive glass.

He's extremely intelligent operating off the ball, having a knack for moving to the right spot to catch and finish in a simple and effective manner, despite rarely playing above the rim. He uses the glass nicely and has terrific touch around the basket, which helps explain how he's able to convert 61% of his attempts inside the arc even though he is usually at a distinct size disadvantage. Although he's not a high flyer, he rarely misses high percentage looks.

The senior is especially effective in transition, sprinting the floor with purpose whenever he gets a chance, running straight to the front of the rim, and being very physical looking to receive the ball in the paint. This also makes him a factor in the half-court in post-up situations, where he uses his body effectively, draws fouls at a good rate, and does an excellent job finishing through contact, again, mostly below the rim. There's nothing pretty about his game, but it's brutally effective at this level.

Crowder is also a much improved shooter, attempting over 50% more shots from beyond the arc this season, but hitting them at a better rate—38% compared with 36% last season. The key seems to be his shot-selection, which is excellent, with 84% of his jump-shots coming with his feet set. The work he's put into refining this part of his game is obviously a factor as well, as he's managed to raise his free throw percentages from a paltry 62% to a much more respectable 73% this season.

But where Crowder is best is on the defensive side of the ball. Again, here's DX:

Crowder's best attributes revolve around his play on the defensive end, where he's one of the most versatile and effective players in all of college basketball. One of the rare players who truly guards every position on the court one through five, often within a single game, Crowder takes great pride in shutting down his matchup, and is a willing contributor as a team defender as well.

Physical and intelligent, with long arms, a strong frame, good footwork, excellent fundamentals, and nice anticipation skills, he follows the game-plan, gets in the passing lanes prolifically (ranking 5th amongst NCAA prospects in steals per-40), steps in for charges and never takes possessions off.

Despite possibly lacking a degree of lateral quickness to shut down some of the quicker wing players he'll match up with in the NBA, Crowder knows how to force opponents to settle for the shot he wants them to take, and won't give up an inch when matched up with bigger forwards.

Because of all this, I think Jae Crowder is a potential steal late in the first round, and a huge steal where DX currently has him going (13th pick of the second round). I really think the Bulls should take a hard look at Crowder with their pick or buy an early second round pick to get him, if he's still available. After the jump, a Jae Crowder highlight video.

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There's been a lot of talk about what the Bulls should do going forward, and I wanted to lay out my thoughts on some things, both in order to clarify things in my own head and to see what y'all think. First, there's a premise I need to establish here in terms of team-building: I believe the Spurs, as a small-market team, demonstrate how the Bulls will have to build their team, if they want to be perennial contenders. One reason I believe this is that I don't believe the Bulls will ever really pay for the luxury tax, as they never did before back when it was far less punitive and also because the tax now is pretty crippling in terms of making talent acquisitions to help build your team once you're in it and the Bulls value flexibility.

Now, if you're operating in a context where you never pay the tax, you have to be smart about where you spend your money. What does that mean? It means you have to figure out who your core group of guys are and who's replaceable / an interchangeable part. You have to get value contracts. The Bulls have been pretty good at this, but not perfect. The Bulls determined that Ben Gordon was not worth paying an 8-figure deal, and they've been proven right on that score. They've gotten guys like Taj Gibson and Omer Asik who way outperformed their rookie deals, late in the draft. They got Derrick, who was a huge value while on his rookie deal and will still be a value deal as a max player. There have been some misses, though. Boozer is the most obvious example. He's way overpaid for his production. Luol is one of my favorite players and still underrated, but I don't think anyone would say that he's a value deal. He's likely paid just right or slightly overpaid for his production. Now the framework for team-building in the Spurs way, in a general sense, the best I can tell, is to get your best 3 guys locked in and find role players on cheap deals that fit around them.

The Bulls right now have 4 guys going forward that are paid like they are top 3 guys (Rose, Deng, Noah, and Boozer), which is a problem. As I've pointed out, Boozer is by far the worst contract of that bunch, and he's the oldest. So, clearly, Boozer can't be part of the Bulls long term plans, if they are to be perennial contenders after 2013 (I'm throwing out next year, obviously, since it will be the Rose Rehab tour). The next issue is whether Rose-Deng-Noah is a good enough trio to be perennial contenders with plug-n-play role-players surrounding them. I'm not sure that it is, but it's close. I definitely think Rose and Noah are good enough to be part of such a trio, but I'm not sure that Luol is that kind of player. His defense is fantastic, but his offense is still pretty mediocre and he's still prone to injury, even if he's gotten better at fighting through it, it hurts his effectiveness quite a bit. If there's someone of these 3 that will have to go in order to make things work properly, it's probably Luol. On the other hand, he's only under contract through 2014, so Luol's potential inadequacy isn't such a big problem going forward. One other important thing to remember when building a team on a budget, one of your big 3 stars needs to be a big man. Why? Because big men get paid, even if they are merely average (see e.g. Javale McGee's upcoming monster contract). The marginal value of a dollar spent on a star big man versus a merely average one is a huge return. Fortunately, I am of the opinion that Noah is such a big man. He raises his game in the playoffs and he's a top 5 center -- the only centers clearly better than Joakim, imo, are Dwight, Bynum, and Duncan. Joakim is locked up to a ridiculously affordable deal for a center of his gifts, making $50 million over the next 4 years. Incidentally, this might be a reason why the Thunder are boned long term. None of their big 3 are big men (Westbrook, Harden, Durant) and as a result, they will have to pay market rates for guys like Ibaka and Perkins, who simply aren't worth the 8 figure deals they will be receiving, especially for what they contribute to the Thunder. It's the biggest difference between the Spurs and the Thunder, in terms of how they're built, but it's significant. It's much easier to find plug-n-play cheap wings to surround Duncan than it is to find cheap bigs to go with Durant.

Okay, so what does this all mean in terms of what the Bulls should do regarding their big decisions this off-season?

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So, the Bulls have looked into acquiring Leon Powe. From Bull's mouthpiece beat writer, KC Johnson:

The Bulls still might add a reserve big man. Leon Powe, who played for Tom Thibodeau in Boston, is a possibility.

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So, last night the Bulls lost to the Heat in a pretty bummeriffic way. On the positive side, they didn't have Luol or C.J. and still hung tough while the Heat were at full strength. On the other hand, Wade looked awful and the other non-Bosh and LBJ Heatles did not really impact the game, which is something that probably won't remain consistent across games. Derrick Rose played 45 minutes last night and was clearly gassed at the end of the game. Playing those kind of minutes as the sole offensive option (Boozer and Rip were crap on O last night) against the league's second best defense and most athletic team will do that. He left a FT and the final shot of the game short. C.J. being injured forced John Lucas III into the game for the 3 meager minutes that Rose sat. He was a total disaster. He took one wild fade away jumper, turned the ball over, and managed to go a -8 in just 3 minutes (!). Frankly, Lucas is too small to ever play against the Heat. Which brings me to the purpose of this post. I think the Bulls missed an opportunity in the draft. I suggested in the SBNation Mock Draft that the Bulls draft combo-guard Charles Jenkins and big-man Jon Leuer. Jon Leuer has posted an 18.9 PER in his rookie season and frankly looks great, but we have a plethora of capable big men, so he's not the guy I want to focus on in this post (although if Boozer keeps disappearing in big games, it might be nice to have another offensive minded big).

I think the Bulls failure to have a competent third PG cost them the game and if CJ is hurt again during the playoffs (which is certainly unlikely, but possible) then the Bulls stand zero chance of beating the Heat. Simply put, John Lucas III does not belong on the same floor with the Heat. Charles Jenkins has put up relatively pedestrian numbers with a 12.4 PER, but he has a 52.2% True Shooting percentage. His low PER is largely a function of his very low usage (12.7%). Jenkins, thus far, doesn't take a ton of shots, but he also has an incredibly low 7.8 TOV% and decent AST% (23.7%). He also has actual NBA size, unlike Lucas. I find it hard to believe that Jenkins would have been as atrocious against Miami as Lucas was. Lucas has an egregious 46.7% True Shooting percentage on 18.1 shots per 36 minutes. Jenkins takes about half that many shots per 36 minutes and is much better at scoring on those shots. He turns it over much less and gets slightly more assists, pace and minutes adjusted. Basically, JL3 is a miniature chucker on the level of Jannero Pargo without any of the sometimes positive things on defense that Pargo would occasionally bring. Considering Jimmy Butler's inability to get off the bench, I think the Bulls missed by not drafting Jenkins. I think with even competent play during JL3's minutes last night, the Bulls win. I also think if the Bulls had someone competent who could have allowed Derrick to play 38-40 minutes instead of the 45 he played last night, the Bulls win. Basically, C.J. needs to get well and stay healthy in the playoffs. Or, you know, the Bulls could have cut JL3 and kept Mike James, who looked better in just about every way to Lucas in his brief stint with the Bulls and actually has the size to belong on an NBA court.

Recently, a common meme has popped up surrounding these Bulls. The idea behind it is that the Bulls outworked their opponents all season to the best record in the league and now that its playoff time, that difference in effort is going to be mitigated because everyone will be giving their full 100%. People have claimed that's why the Bulls haven't been able to pull away from the Pacers. The problem, though, is that it's just not true. Allow me to explain.

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So, there's a lot of consternation over the Bulls holding pat at this trade deadline. At first, I was among the many who thought it was stupid for the Bulls not to have made a move for Mayo or Courtney Lee. Then, as I often do when I'm upset, I went to do some research to see if there was an angle I wasn't seeing. And as often happens when I react emotionally, I was indeed missing something. A big something. Here it is: Courtney Lee and OJ Mayo simply aren't that good.

According to K.C., the Bulls turned down Mayo for Taj and multiple first round picks. They also refused to include Omer Asik in a deal for Courtney Lee.  At first, I was pissed off and thought the Bulls were blowing a real window to win a title THIS year by overvaluing their big depth.  But I went to look at two stats that I find have value when looked at together. PER and adjusted plus-minus.

Adjusted Plus-Minus

The adjusted-plus minus numbers I used were a three year sample that is best at predicting out of sample 10-11 data. That is to say they are the most accurate numbers with reduced standard errors.  The website is here. The numbers are here. So what do the adjusted-plus minus numbers say?

Player Off. Def. Total

CLee 0.4 -0.2 0.1

Mayo 1.1 -1.8 -0.8

So, Lee and Mayo don't look terribly impressive here. Now, these numbers probably need some context. What kind of numbers do Bogans, Watson, Korver, and Brewer put up?

Player Off. Def. Total

Bogans 0.1 0.0 0.1

Watson -0.1 1.3 1.2

Korver 0.5 2.5 3.0

Brewer -0.9 1.5 0.6

As we already knew, Bogans is the worst possible person on the Bulls to get SG minutes. But, he's also as good by APM as CLee and better than Mayo. By APM, neither of these two guys seem like a very big upgrade for the Bulls in any way.

How much would it have cost us? Well, what do the APM numbers say about Taj and Omer?

Player Off. Def. Total

Taj -1.5 1.6 0.1

Omer -0.6 2.5 1.9

Given that Taj was requested in the Mayo trade + multiple picks, it seems reasonable that the Bulls didn't make that move, as Taj is a better player than Mayo AND the Bulls other options are better than Mayo. The same is true, to an even larger extent, of Omer versus Courtney Lee.

Based on APM, it seems pretty clear that the Bulls made the right decision. All of the Bulls current guard options are at least as good as Lee or Mayo and most of them are better. It simply didn't make sense to cash in assets for those guys, especially with the importance of big man depth in the playoffs. Now, what does PER have to say about these non-moves?

PER

O.J. Mayo's PER this year is a pretty crummy 12.4 and his TS% is 50%. In his previous two years, he was a 14.2 and 14.6 PER. His TS% was 53.6 and then 55.1. He's fallen off this year, but even if you assume he can get back to where he once was, he was merely average. But he plays pretty iffy defense and is undersized for his position. He's a below average player, no matter how you cut it.

Courtney Lee's PER this year is a 13.1 (his career best) and his TS% is a mere 54%. His defense is decent, if a bit overrated. But he's still a below average player. He doesn't start on a below .500 Rockets team.

What about the guys the Bulls currently have?

Ronnie Brewer has a 13.3 PER this year (15.4 for his career) and plays great, disruptive defense in this system.  Kyle Korver has a 12.6 PER this year, which is about exactly the same as his career average. He plays decent defense within the system but gets beat by athletes and isn't really super well suited to the SG position beyond spot minutes. C.J. Watson has a 10.8 PER this year and a 13.3 career PER. He, like Brewer, plays disruptive, aggressive defense that leads to transition opportunities. Then, there's Keith Bogans who has a 8.1 PER. Keith's low PER, though, is hugely related to his very, very low usage. He only uses about 10.5% of possessions for the Bulls. He's got a 54.7% TS% and he plays stout defense. 

Are Courtney Lee and O.J. Mayo really significant upgrades over giving more minutes to Brewer and Korver, or even Watson? I'd say no, even looking at PER. These guys aren't pushing you over the edge to a championship this year.

Now, what would the Bulls be giving up to get these guys?

Taj has a 13.5 PER and Omer has an 11.4 PER. But these guys are both incredibly versatile and skilled interior defenders, who I place much more value on than mediocre wing players.

Would I have liked the Bulls to have shored up the SG position with Courtney Lee or O.J. Mayo? Yes. Would I have done it for the asking price that the Rockets and the Grizzlies attempted to extract? No, I would not. 

I can't crucify the front office for their decision. 

Now Thibs, stop playing Bogans and start playing Omer, damn it.

As some of you know, I often lurk on the APBRmetrics message board looking for interesting research the statheads are doing. Well, I came across something interesting tonight.  Board member DSMok1 posted some very interesting research he had done for his blog.

The jist of his research was this: he wanted to create a predictive model of future results based on past results. The most common and trusted statistical method for taking past data to make predictive results is called Bayesian analysis. So DSMok1 took the data for the NBA and used Bayesian analysis to come up with predictive rankings and power rankings. One of the best parts about these results is that, unlike John Hollinger's power rankings which rely on just what happened in the last ten games to give the results a component that compensates for changes in quality over the length of the season, DSMok1's results use a function that weighs every game, but uses a gradual function to make it so the most recent result is weighted the most heavy and the first game of the season is weighted the lightest. DSMok1 explains it like this: 

The basic concept is this: between each game, apply a transformation that increases the standard deviation by a fixed amount. Thus, if the current game has a standard deviation of 12, then the previous game would have a standard deviation of 12 + a, and the next a standard deviation of 12 + 2a, etc… This has the effect of weighting each game 1/(12)^2, then 1/(12+a)^2, then 1/(12+2a)^2, and so on. That can be restated as a weighting of the form b, b-c, b-c^2, b-c^3, etc. In this case, b would be 1/144, and c would be… ugly. (24a + a^2)/[144*(144+24a+a^2)], I believe. Anyway, moving along…

Adding the "penalty factor" depreciates the value of the older samples. The choice of how much depreciation to use requires the empirical work. To do this, I compiled last year’s NBA data and this year’s NBA data, adjusted all of the games for opponent, location, and rest, and set to work. I created a framework using the above methods to create the Bayesian-updated projection for each game, based on the games so far that season.

The numbers also take into account the strength of the opponent from each game. So now, I'm sure you're all curious as about the results of this analysis. Well, here they are: 

via i.imgur.com

So  the Bulls come in at 5th in the big cluster of 6 teams cluttered tightly at the top of the league. The top 6 is Miami, San Antonio, Orlando, Lakers, Bulls, and Boston in that order, but outside of the top 2 (Heat and Spurs), there's hardly a significant difference between the teams.

For the full post with all the equations and explanation of how the results were reached go here. For the thread with smart people discussing this work on APBRmetrics, go here.

I think we've all noticed Derrick's clutch abilities have been off the charts this year (Clippers game notwithstanding). Now we have numbers to back it up. Here's Wayne Winston:

Derrick Rose is now a full fledged super star. He leads the league in our Impact rating (sort of adjusted +/- adjusted for importance of game situations) and has a +15 Adjusted +/-.  Korver +13 has also been great.

This lends a lot more credence to Ric Bucher's claims that Rose is the MVP.

Nice to see Derrick continuing to get some recognition and with numbers to support it, too!

Tyrus Thomas has played in 8 games and about 20 minutes a game so far this year. He has a 24.3 PER. He's tripped over zero bags. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. 

20+ points per 36 minutes on 58% TS.

9 boards per 36 minutes.

3 blocks, 2 steals per 36 minutes.

Pretty, pretty good.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomaty01.html

This one's for you, yfBB. ;-)

via d.yimg.com

(Quarter breakdowns and 4 factor numbers via Hoopdata).

Last night's game was a bit of a microcosm of the Bulls' year so far. They started out very strong, got trounced in the second quarter when Thibs went to his hockey-style line change with the second unit in the second quarter, and then spent the rest of the game trying to make up the difference.

Derrick had a pretty mediocre game. He finished the game -8, while his counterpart Rondo finished with a +11. Derrick spent a whopping 46 minutes on the court but was only able to come up with 18 points, on 19 shots, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, and 6 turnovers (though 2 of those were kind of bull to charge to Derrick, one was the phantom offensive foul on Derrick's late drive against KG and the other was the pass that Taj plain dropped after Derrick had collapsed the defense). I thought the Celtics did a pretty good job of containing Derrick's penetration for the most part, though he got to the rim for 7 attempts and made 4 of them. The most damning thing to me, though, tonight was Derrick really didn't look like he was competing on the defensive end. I don't know if there was miscommunication out there or what, but Rondo and Pierce murdered Rose and Deng in the 1-3 pick and roll a number of times. A couple of them it was unclear whether Derrick or Luol was at fault, but it wasn't pretty. Beyond that, Derrick gave up dribble penetration to Rondo easily a number of times, which was disappointing to see.

Speaking of Luol, he had a terrible, terrible game, particularly down the stretch. I know he hit two back to back clutch three pointers towards the end of the fourth, but he also had two terrible in-bounds plays in a row when the Bulls had a chance to pull away from the Celtics late. One he just threw the ball out of bounds, rather than calling a timeout to prevent a five second violation and the other he threw to Korver in an awkward position (Ray Allen pushed Korver in the back causing Korver to drop the ball, which of course was not called). Luol's rebounding is also still MIA as he secured just 6 boards in 43 minutes, combine that with 20 points on 19 shots, 2 assists, 4 turnovers, and some absolutely terrible pick and roll defense in overtime and Luol was another big reason the Bulls lost. He did give Pierce a hard time for most of regulation, though, as Pierce finished the game 4-14. Unfortunately, Pierce made plays down the stretch and Deng didn't.

We also saw why Thibs doesn't play Korver much, despite his needed floor stretching abilities. The guy got absolutely worked by Ray Allen and Pierce in the 2-3 and 3-2 pick and roll during overtime. He was a -8 in just 20 minutes and it was not hard to see why. He also only provided 5 points on 5 shots. Yuck.

Scalabrine finally only played 3 minutes and even registered a block on Pierce in isolation. Both of those things were good to see. Pierce getting embarrassed is always nice and Scal not playing is a much needed adjustment by Coach T.

Joakim was absolutely fantastic save for two plays. The first wasn't a play at all, really. He got T'd up at the end of the first half, which gave the Celtics an extra point to start the second half. It's impossible to say how the game would shake out if the point hadn't been granted or how strategies would have changed, but the fact is that the Bulls ended regulation tied and that 1 point didn't NEED to be given to the Celtics. When you're playing a team like Boston, you can't give away free points. Joakim has to be smarter than that. Finally, the only other bad play that Joakim had was when he attempted to push the pace towards the end of OT after a rebound, rather than getting it the ball to Derrick. KG snuck up behind him and poked the ball away to Big Baby and that was a pretty decisive possession. Other than that, Joakim gave us 49 minutes, 26 points on 13 shots, 10-10 FTs, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 turnovers. I love him.

Similarly, Taj looked fantastic. The Celtics left Noah and Taj open all night for long 2 point jumpers off of Derrick's penetration and they consistently made them pay. Taj even displayed a few new moves in his offensive repertoire, including a floater. I also thought his defense on Garnett was very solid. KG finished with just 16 points on 17 shots. You'd like for Taj to grab more than 7 boards in 40 minutes, though.

Ronnie Brewer looks like he's finally healthy (some nice cuts and finishes in the lane and a nice pick of Ray Allen's pocket late for an easy transition dunk) and it couldn't come soon enough, because Keith Bogans is truly terrible. Oh, and Keith, stop trying to run the fast break. It's embarrassing.

Jimmy Johns had a pretty brutal game in his short stint. He jacked some ugly shots and finished with no points on 4 shots in 6 minutes and only 2 boards and 1 assist. I'm afraid it looks like JJ had a fluky game against the Pistons and that's about it.

Finally, a word about the refereeing. I normally don't complain a lot about refs, at least after the fact when I've calmed down and seen a replay, but last night was  truly awful. The foul disparity doesn't seem to be that great just looking at the box score, but the calls last night were terribly one sided. Rondo reached in on Derrick 4 times by my count that should have been obvious fouls and he was never called, including on the final play of regulation where he dove into Derrick's midsection. Big Baby got away with a couple of blocking fouls that were treated as charges, and Derrick was charged with a crucial offensive foul late for having the audacity to be hacked by KG. It was pretty ridiculous. Then, on the other end, Ray Allen shot a three pointer and fell down like he was shot because Derrick challenged  the shot (didn't touch Allen, mind you) and got a 4 point play. In a tight game, all of these things made the difference.

It was good to see the guys hang tough in that kind of environment, but it sucked to see them fall apart at the end to a team that just kept executing in the clutch. As someone who appreciates well-played basketball, Pierce's pass to Allen for the dunk over Korver in crunch time was beautiful. As a Bulls fan, it made me want to throw up.

Oh and one more thing, Kevin Garnett is a dick.

Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade play similar styles. They are slashing guards with elite athleticism with limited range on their jumpers. The similarities go beyond that, though. I decided to take a look at Derrick's second season, when he was only 21 years old, with Dwyane's rookie year, when he was 22 years old. It's the closest age comparison we can make between them at the NBA level, so I figure it's worth making.

Team Success

Wade's Miami Heat won 42 games (good for a 4 seed in the terrible East that year) and made a nice run into the second round of the playoffs by knocking off the New Orleans Hornets in the first round. Wade's Heat also had a very good top 5 players outside of Wade:

1. Lamar Odom (24 years old, .134 WS/48, where .100 is average)

2. Eddie Jones (32 years old, .146 WS/48)

3. Udonis Haslem (23 y/o, .128 WS/48)

4. Rafer Alston (27 y/o, .110 WS/48)

5. Brian Grant (31 y/o, .101 WS/48)

They also had Rasual Butler who played well but in limited minutes and Caron Butler who played like crap.

The Bulls, in contrast, won 41 games (good for 8th in a much improved East, relative to the crummy 03-04 version of the Conference). The Bulls were beaten pretty soundly in the first round, but the 09-10 Cavs were obviously a much different monster than the 03-04 Hornets. The Bulls top 5 outside of Derrick looks like this:

1. Joakim Noah (24 y/o, .154 WS/48)

2. Luol Deng (24 y/o, .106 WS/48)

3. Taj Gibson (80 24 y/o, .103 WS/48)

4. Brad Miller (33 y/o, .098 WS/48)

5. John Salmons (30 y/o, .092 WS/48)

It looks like Dwyane had the better supporting cast, which, combined with the weaker East, would explain the additional team success that Wade enjoyed.

Statistical Comparison - Per 36 minutes

Rk         Player  Season Age  G GS   MP  FG  FGA  FG%  3P 3PA  3P%  FT FTA  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
1    Derrick Rose 2009-10  21 78 78 2871 8.4 17.2 .489 0.2 0.8 .267 3.2 4.2 .766 0.8 2.9 3.7 5.9 0.7 0.3 2.7 1.2 20.3
2     Dwyane Wade 2003-04  22 61 56 2126 6.3 13.5 .465 0.3 0.9 .302 3.9 5.3 .747 1.4 2.7 4.2 4.7 1.5 0.6 3.3 2.4 16.8

Statistical Comparison - Advanced Stats

Rk         Player  Season Age  G   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS  WS WS/48
1    Derrick Rose 2009-10  21 78 2871 18.6 .532 .495  2.6  8.7  5.7 30.3  1.0  0.7 12.5 27.2  106  109 3.5 2.5 6.0 0.100
2     Dwyane Wade 2003-04  22 61 2126 17.6 .530 .475  4.6  9.0  6.8 25.1  2.2  1.3 17.3 25.0  101  102 2.2 2.3 4.6 0.103

Statistical Comparison - Raw +/- (via 82games.com)

Wade:

                     On             Off                Net

Minutes:    2130          1813             54%

Offense:    105.5         103.5           +2.0

Defense:   103.0         104.4            -1.4

Net:              +2.5           +0.9             +3.4

Rose:

                       On            Off                 Net

Minutes:      2870         1110              72%

Offense:      106.1         101.5           +4.6

Defense:     106.2         106.7            -0.5

Net:               -0.1             -5.2              +5.1

I think there's a lot of evidence there that Derrick is a better player at 21 than Dwyane Wade was at 22. I'm not going to parse this stuff too much, because frankly, I don't have the time and there are plenty of you on here that are capable of reading into this stuff. I would like to point out that Derrick posted a greater ORtg with a greater USG% than Wade did. Derrick also posted a greater PER and his WS/48 was less but only because of Wade's superior DRtg which is highly team dependent. There's no telling whether Derrick can make the same sort of astronomical leap that Wade made from year 1 to year 2 and then again to year 3, but no one doubts his work ethic and willingness to learn. If Derrick can get it done, the Bulls become scary for the rest of the league and our lives as Bulls fans become a lot more exciting.

The only other two names to gain any traction so far: Massachusetts native Vinny Del Negro (another ex-teammate Ainge is known to be fond of) and underrated Celtics assistant coach Armond Hill (although there are suspicions Celts ownership will insist on someone with a higher profile).

Let me just be the first to say, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ahaha oh hee hee ha ha ah ah ah hahaha ha ha ha ha.

Whoo boy, that's some funny, funny stuff.

Link

[From the FanPosts. Mitchell was off my short list last week, but this is a pretty good case that he could be considered better than Frank or Casey. In other coaching news, McHale is interested but hasn't been contacted. -ed.]

The Bulls stink at offense. This has been true for years.  Here are the Bulls offensive efficiency rankings for the last 13 years (post-Jordan):

2009-10 - 27th of 30

2008-09 - 15th of 30

2007-08 - 26th of 30

2006-07 - 21st of 30

2005-06 - 23rd of 30

2004-05 - 27th of 30

2003-04 - 29th of 29

2002-03 - 26th of 29

2001-02 - 28th of 29

2000-01 - 29th of 29

1999-00 - 29th of 29

1998-99 - 29th of 29

It's a record of abject failure on offense. The best season they ever had was last year and that was with an empty suit coaching the team. The Bulls defense has, ever since the Skiles era, ranged from solid to great. The Bulls have the talent and personnel to be a top level defense next year. In their healthier stretches this year, they were one of the top 5 defenses in the league. Which brings me to the point of this post: the Bulls coaching search should be focused on bringing in a coach who has had success on the offensive side of the ball.

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