SB Nation User Blog: fundamentallysound

Cool Website that Tracks Shot Locations, Among Other Things

fundamentallysound — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:27:53 -0000

Cool Website that Tracks Shot Locations, Among Other Things

The Bulls are the worst shooting 3 point team in the league by percentage and only 4 teams take fewer 3s per game than the Bulls. No team takes as many 16-23 foot jumps as the Bulls. In fact, the next closest team, Minnesota, shoots 3 (!) less per game than the Bulls. This is even more outrageous when you consider that the Bulls are in the bottom 8 in the league in pace (averaging 2.5 fewer possessions per game than league average), so that a huge percentage of their shots per game are 16-23 foot jump shots. Even more discouraging is that the Bulls don't even shoot that shot better than average. The average rate of makes in that range is 38.5% leaguewide, but the Bulls make them at a rate of just 37.1%.

The Bulls also take the 5th fewest shots at the rim and are the 3rd worst team at finishing at the rim. They are 13th in shots taken in the under 10 foot range, but they are making 50% of these shots, good for the 4th highest percentage. They are also 13th in attempts in the 10-15 foot range, but they are 9th in FG% on shots in that range.

From this it's pretty clear why the Bulls are 26th in offensive efficiency. They don't get to the rim very often and are pretty bad at finishing at the rim. They don't take many threes and they are also the worst team in the league at making the threes they do take. They take more long 2pt jump shots (the game's least efficient shot) than any other team and make that shot at a below average percentage. The Bulls are actually pretty good at scoring inside when it's not at the rim (i.e. from 1 to 15 feet out). So it's pretty clear that they need to be attacking more and trying to get more shots in that area, and they also need to get to attack so that they can get to the line more, as they are 23rd in FT-r.

The good news is that there's a LOT of room for improvement from the offense. The bad news is that Vinny is our coach.

"I feel like we have a great group of guys that care about winning," Deng said. "I've said it...

fundamentallysound — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 06:59:00 -0000

"I feel like we have a great group of guys that care about winning," Deng said. "I've said it before, but I couldn't really say that the last few years."

Deng taking another very thinly veiled shot at Gordon.

Bulls Waive Byars

fundamentallysound — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:11:08 -0000

Bulls Waive Byars

[From the FanShots. Aw, nuts. Maybe keeping him at all was just until they were sure Rose (and Pargo, I guess) were healthy -ed.]

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Basketball Prospectus's Projections for the Year: Bulls win 36 games OR Bulls win 45 games

fundamentallysound — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:38:26 -0000

Basketball Prospectus's Projections for the Year: Bulls win 36 games OR Bulls win 45 games

Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projection system is down on the Bulls -- having them winning 36 games and finishing 9th in the East.

Bradford Doolittle's NBAPET system projects the Bulls to win 45 games and finish 5th in the East.

Take your pick on who to believe, but clearly both have their flaws. SCHOENE has the Knicks(!) as the 6 seed in the East next year, whereas NBAPET has the Bobcats taking the 4 seed in the East.

I think both of those predictions are pretty crazy, but hey, maybe you buy it.

NBA Live Simulation (Powered by Synergy Sports Tech) Predicts Bulls to Win 51 games

fundamentallysound — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:20:56 -0000

NBA Live Simulation (Powered by Synergy Sports Tech) Predicts Bulls to Win 51 games

More positive news in the prediction business. Not sure how much weight to give this or the Simmons prediction. I'm still guessing closer to 40-45 wins, but who knows?

Bill Simmons Picks the Bulls to win 49 games

fundamentallysound — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:47:05 -0000

Bill Simmons Picks the Bulls to win 49 games

Bill is really high on Derrick Rose, and expects that to lead to 49 wins. Wow.

"Hornets 2nd round pick Marcus Thornton is forcing himself into rotation, playing like a...

fundamentallysound — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 05:46:33 -0000

"Hornets 2nd round pick Marcus Thornton is forcing himself into rotation, playing like a first-rounder. He can really shoot the ball."

This is why Thornton was my favorite pick for the Bulls at #26. Coulda had him and DeJuan Blair. Woulda been interesting.

Yahoo's Woj

It's good to be Derrick.

fundamentallysound — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 03:51:27 -0000

It's good to be Derrick.

Wayne Winston Demolishes Vinny Del Negro on TrueHoop

fundamentallysound — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 20:14:49 -0000

Wayne Winston Demolishes Vinny Del Negro on TrueHoop

"Some coach told me that "there's ice cream among the s---." That's what you're looking for with the lineups. If the players are bad, there's probably a couple of combinations that work.

The amazing thing is, teams play lineups that don't work.

Like the Bulls. The five lineups they played the most last year were all bad. I mean, how dumb can you be? 82games.com has some of this data. How you can not look at how your lineups perform is beyond me. It really is.

But the lineup stuff, I really think we're good at that.

I really think I can look at a playoff series, and look at that data, and I can basically mine that stuff. I think the Mavericks are one of two teams to win 50 games nine straight years and that's how long we've worked for them. I think that's part of it. A very small part obviously. But I think they have better information than most people, with what we do."

Wayne Winston (Father of Adjusted Plus Minus) thinks the Bulls will "stink" this year

fundamentallysound — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:23:46 -0000

Wayne Winston (Father of Adjusted Plus Minus) thinks the Bulls will "stink" this year

"My prediction is that the Bulls are going to stink this year. Ben Gordon and Brad Miller were their best players. They let Ben Gordon go to the team they need to beat for the playoffs? Why'd they do that?

He wanted a lot of money.
Well, he's worth it.

Letting him go is just beyond stupid. It's ridiculous. And who'd they pick up to replace him? Jannero Pargo? I looked at their lineups, and I guess that they're expecting that Luol Deng can play his position. If he's healthy -- and I don't know if he's healthy."

Further reading here: http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=144

"On Truehoop.com I was (correctly) quoted as saying the Bulls should not have let Ben Gordon go, especially to a bitter divisional rival (Detroit). Gordon’s performance has been erratic but last year was 18th in the league in our Adjusted +/- and he was 4th in Impact, which measure how you change the chance that your team wins. If you saw the Celtics-Bulls series you saw how his clutch shooting can change a game. In 2007-2008 Gordon had a negative impact, but this could be because the team was poor and many players mail it in when the games have no meaning. His offense held up in 2007-2008 but his defense was very poor, leading me to believe he might have mailed it in near the end of the season, In 2004-2005 Gordon had the the league’s 2nd best impact!. He plays over 30 minutes a game. While below average on defense, he is always an above average offensive player. The Bulls were at their best against the Celtics with Miller, Gordon, Hinrich and Rose on the court. They won by around a point a minute with these guys on the court. This 4 man combo cannot be used anymore. Is Ben a bad influence off the court? I have no idea. But on the court he will be missed.

Looking at his 2007-2008 season Hinrich began the season in a really bad shooting slump (he shot 33% in November) and Gordon’s offensive rating was poor(Gordon shot 37%), probably because the defense could lay off Hinrich. Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season."