I'm just trying to avoid a scam herA

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Amazin' Avenue's cadre of writers will be taking your questions on the state of the Mets, baseball in general,  popular culture and even some Mets lore of yore.

Please email amazinavenue@gmail.com with your questions: we'll try to answer as many as we can.

How about we make this a week thing. As many questions between now and next Friday at 5:00 pm. We'll try to answer as many as possible.

Sound good?

Today is the Rule 5 draft. The Mets have selected two players.

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Tatis has been re-signed.

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Omar Minaya is one of the better General Manager's in baseball, but he ignored some key issues for team building.

Rule 1: Everything bad that can happen will happen: have a contingency plan.

Before this season began we had several positions where the odds of getting a full season's worth of production were negligible at best.

In Left Field, we had Moises Alou. Even before the season, I pegged him at 100 games tops. Of course it turns out that even 20 games was an over-estimate. The always fragile Alou made it into a whopping 15 games and headed to the plate 54 times. Even in my worst nightmare, I thought Alou would make it through more of the season than that, even when you threw in his hernia operation. (Really Moises? A Hernia? What were you doing picking up a couch this close to the season?)

Omar failed miserably to have anyone to back him up: before the season he procured the services of Angel Pagan. Pagan's performance wasn't bad before he hurt himself on a remarkable defensive play and was lost for the season. Pause for the irony in that situation.

Wait a few more seconds.

Alright, back to Pagan's performance. While Pagan didn't hit poorly, he fielded like...a man whose poor fielding would make his last name into an adjective for poor fielding. He almost put up a league average OPS, but his fielding was atrocious, and he only lasted 31 games.

Endy Chavez could never have been expected to put up any sort of offensive value in LF and he didn't disappoint, failing to put to up any sort of offensive value. His defense was stellar, but with Alou there was NO backup plan. When you sign a 41 year old to play the field for you, you have to have a league average player ready to plug in, or have more depth in the minors, or be ready to make a trade.

Or suck it up and sign Barry Bonds.

Omar did nothing of these things. While he ignored the glaring problem in LF, that wasn't alone the reason for his failure to get the Mets back to the playoffs.

He also ignored two other field positions: 2B and RF.

He ignored the brutal truth that El Duque would never pitch again for the Mets and had no contingency plan for our starter injuries: Claudio Vargas and Tony Armas, Jr were not the answers either.

The man does not believe in backup plans.Before the season, Ibanez might have been had for a reasonable price before he solidified himself as a Type A FA. Traded for Xavier Nady or even Eric Hinske or Ken Griffey Jr. But Omar refused to make any moves, even after Pagan got injured. In all, the Mets had 12 different players make an appearance in left field. TWELVE.

Next time: a look at 2B and RF.

Today the Mets announced Razor Shines would be replacing Luis Aguayo as third base coach and Randy Niemann would be replacing Guy Conti as bullpen coach.

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I know that many statheads here and on Metsgeek understand that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. But the Mets this season have really made me wonder if that was true, as they have repeatedly looked terrible this season with RISP and even more so with RISP and two outs.

Are the Mets chokers? Whose fault is it? HoJo's? No one's? Lady luck screwing us? I can't say for certain. But the difference between the Mets and the Phillies is baffling in these batting situations, and goes to show that if the Mets were even league average with RISP they would most likely have a lead over the Phillies of several games in the standings.

I'd like the split data for July if possible, I know b-r has the full season splits, but I would like to see the stats for July by itself, as it is considered the month that saved HoJo's job. Maybe it's just my impression from watching the games, or the affect studying for the CA Bar Exam had on me, but I felt that even though the Mets had an offensive explosion from Carlos Delgado and others, the team on a whole STILL hit very poorly with RISP and RISP with two outs. If anyone can get me that data, I would appreciate it greatly.

On to the meat of the statistical analysis.

These numbers were IMed to Jessica Bader a frequent contributor for the Mets on MVN, because I was looking at the Mets splits versus the Phillies splits for this season.

With RISP the Mets are hitting .253/.346/.379 for an OPS of .725. Our split OPS+, sOPS+ is 90. Well below average. 10% worse than the league average to be exact. When you have 5 above average bats in the lineup with Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Tatis/Church, it’s baffling to be that bad.

In the 1284 PAs with RISP the Mets have 386 RBIs. In the 1132(152 less) PAs with RISP the Phillies have 358 RBIs.

With RISP the Phillies are hitting .270/.376/.462 for an OPS of .838. A sOPS+ of 119. Almost 20% higher than league average.

With 2 outs and a RISP, the Mets have a line of .230/.360/.356 for an OPS of .717. An sOPS+ of 97 which is close to the league average.

With 2 outs and a RISP, the Phillies have a line of .235/.370/.383 for an OPS of .753. An sOPS+ of 107. Again, above average by 7 percent.

But there are a few more pieces of evidence that we can look at, most notably BABIP.

With RISP, the Mets have a BABIP of .272. With RISP, the Phillies have a BABIP of .302.

With RISP, and 2 outs, the Mets have a BABIP of .256. With RISP, and two outs the Phillies have a BABIP of .280.

.300 is around the normal average for BABIP.

Based on sOPS+ the Phillies are OPSing almost THIRTY(29) percent higher with RISP.

Based on sOPS+ the Phillies are OPSing TEN percent higher with RISP, 2 outs.

Even though the Mets are getting on base overall 8 percent more often the Phillies are unsurprisingly slugging 33 points higher than the Mets in their bandbox.

While we’ve been unlucky in the high leverage situations according to the BABIP…the Phillies are OPSing thirty percent more than the Mets with RISP. That’s just flat out ####ing baffling. And that’s with the Phillies hitting under what would be expected with a BABIP with RISP and 2 outs.

Let me know what you guys think.

Report is that Joe Blanton has been traded by the As to the Phillies in exchange for three prospects, Cardenas, Outman and Spencer.

Surprising to see a move this soon, but Beane was flat out ready to rid of Blanton as quickly as possible.

I was hoping the Phillies would have had to part with Carrasco but doesn't seem like it.

Will keep you guys updated.

It's official, Cardenas Outman and Spencer for Blanton. Beerleaguers do not seem happy.

Yes you read that right...what the hell?

Does that make any sense? Stokes has looked terrible all ST. Does someone have to tell Omar we don't need another Mota, it's not in the rulebook that requires us to have someone that sucks to the level of Stokes.

What do you guys think the purpose of making this move was considering Register is a Rule V pick and the odds of someone else being stupid enough to claim Stokes is slim to none.

With Torre finally having enough of the politics from the Tampa Group that controls the Yankees and signs guys like Carl Pavano...could the Yankees turn to Willie Randolph?

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Per Espn.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2608613

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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 20 right handed pitchers in today's article.

The Mets placed three pitchers on the list.

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for minor league prospects, Garrett Mock, RHP, and Matt Chico LHP.

Both are 23 years old, and will report to the Nats AA Affiliate

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Glavine(11-2, 3.48 ERA)

vs

Zambrano(8-3, 3.24 ERA)

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Trachsel versus Maddux

Game start time of 2:20 EST

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To win the All-Star Game? Ozzie Guillen is managing and his crazy brand of nepotism gives the NL the best chance they have had in some time.

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Per ESPN.com

But setup man Duaner Sanchez, a key part of New York's stellar bullpen, left after only two pitches with an injury.

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Beltran has batted with just 151 runners on base this season, 128th of 214 players with at least 180 ABs.

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(moved from the diaries. --eric)

I wish I could somehow use mad photoshop "skillz" to get David Wright and Carlos Beltran into Uncle Sam outfits.

David Wright, according to mlb.com has taken the lead for the 3B slot from Scott Rolen. Apparently no one has heard of Miguel Cabrera in mlb.com land, but that's not surprising.

The biggest issue isn't David Wright's lead at 3B, I think people are FINALLY getting that he is coming into his prime and is a dominant player, but that Carlos Beltran, who is on fire right now, is at risk of not starting at an OF slot for the All-Star Game, which is a travesty.

Yes, Soriano is raking, but the three starters should be Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and Alfonso Soriano.

But Ken Griffey Jr, :rolls eyes:, and the Smirker are ahead of Beltran and don't look like they will be caught. Edit: I take that back. I looked at Ken Griffey Jr's stats and WPA, and the guy is the best NL outfielder and should start. However, Smirker isn't even in the top 10. So vote Smirker out.

Please, I beseech you, I want our players in the All Star Game, because if they're starters, maybe we(the NL) can finally win this All Star Game and take home field advantage for the World Series.

Then we can scuff the ball Mike Scott style and get away with it.

Please vote on mlb.com, it's very easy to do and it saves your selections, so as long as you do the validation key (which is only 4 characters.)

Go Mets. And even if you're a non-Mets fan, please vote for Carlos Beltran and David Wright at their respective positions, they're the best in the NL at their positions, and they need your vote, please recognize their talent, regardless of the jersey and put them in the game. Especially if you are the fan of an NL team, they represent the best chance the NL has, position wise, to win the game of all the positions that are close in contention for voting.

Vote Beltran and Wright!

And write-in Corey Patterson for an AL outfield spot, the guy really has turned it around this year.

(moved from the diaries. --eric)

Newsday reports that the Mets have moved to trade Kaz Matsui to the Colorado Rockies for Eli Marrero.

The Mets will be sending cash, about 4.6 million AND pay Eli Marrero's pro-rated salary of 477k.

Several obstacles to the deal exist.

1. The Commissioner's Office has to approve the deal.
   
2. The Rockies want Matsui to go to the minors for a tune up.
   
3. The Rockies want Matsui to forego a clause in Matsui's contract that stipulates that his employer pays for 8 round trip flights to Japan, a car, and 25k housing and relocation payments.

(moved from the diaries. --eric)

According to the New York Times, Pedro Beato was not signed and will re-enter the draft. Disappointing.

"The Mets did not sign pitcher Pedro Beato, their 17th-round draft pick in 2005, before they lost his rights at midnight, making Beato eligible to re-enter the draft. Beato, a 6-foot-5, 235-pound right-hander, pitched for Xaverian High School in Brooklyn."

According to the New York Times, Pedro Beato was not  signed and will re-enter the draft. Disappointing. With no first round pick this year, I really look at this dawdling by the Front Office and Minaya to be Omar's first big mistake this year. We had a chance to get a hometown 6'5 235 pound kid with electric stuff into our farm system and all he cost was money, no picks, no major leaguers, just money. For the 13th best player in this year's draft.

Yes, TINSTAAPP, but sheesh. It seemed like a worthwhile gamble to take, and I think Omar took too long this time.

(this post has a poll attached. click for poll.)

Your thoughts? Is it worth the cash?

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